SEQUENCIAL STEPS FOR TRAVEL

TRAVEL DEMAND - Expressed as the number of FORECASTING

persons or vehicles per unit time that can be - Prior to the technical task of travel forecasting, the
expected to travel on a given segment of a study is a must be delineated into a set of traffic
transportation system under asset of given land-use, analysis zones (TAZ) that form the basis for analysis
socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. of travel movements within, into, and out of the urban
area.
FORECASTS OF TRAVEL DEMAND - The set of zones can be aggregated into larger
-Are used to establish the vehicular volume on future units, called districts, for certain analytical
or modified transportation system alternatives. techniques or analysis that work at such levels.
-Methods for forecasting travel demand can range - Land use estimates are also developed.
from a simple extrapolation of observed trends to a
sophisticated computerized process involving TRAVEL FORECASTING PROCESS
extensive data gathering and mathematical
modeling.

DEMAND FORECASTING APPROACHES

1. URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS

-Required that extensive databases, be
prepared using home interview and/or
roadside interview surveys. The information
gathered provided useful insight concerning
the characteristics of the trip maker, such as
age, sex, income, auto ownership, and so
forth; the land use at each end of the trip; and
the mode of travel. Travel data then could be
aggregated by zone and/or be used at a TRIP GENERATION
more disaggregated level—that is, Trip generation is the process of determining the
household or individual—to formulate number of trips that will begin or end in each traffic
relationships between variables and to analysis zone within a study area.
calibrate models.
TRIP ENDS - the trips are determined without regard
2. INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND to destination.
- Data are generally aggregated to a greater
extent than for urban travel forecasting, such TWO ENDS OF TRIPS:
as city population, average city income, and
travel time. • The trips are either produced by a traffic
The availability of travel data improved zone.
considerably with the formation of the Bureau • Trips attracted to a traffic zone.
of Transportation Statistics.
TWO FUNCTIONS OF TRIP GENERATIONS
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAVEL DEMAND
• The location and intensity of land use • To develop a relationship between trip ends
• The socioeconomic characteristics of people production or attraction and land use
living in the area • To use the relationship to estimate the
• The extent, cost and quality of available number of trips generated at some future
transportation services. date under a new set of land use conditions.
Cross-CLASSIFICATION – technique developed by 2. GROWTH FACTOR MODELS
the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to Used more widely in the 1950s and 1960s,
determine the number of trips that begin or end at require that the origin-destination matrix be
the home. known for the base (or current) year, as well
as an estimate of the number of future trips
• A likely result of the trip generation process ends in each zone.
is that the number of trip productions may not
be equal to the number of trip attractions. 3. INTERVENING OPPORTUNITIES
• Trip productions, which are based on census Other models are available but not widely
data, are more accurate than trip attractions. used in practice.
Accordingly, trip attractions are usually
modified so that they are equal to trip WHEN SHOULD A SINGLY CONSTRAINED
productions. GRAVITY MODEL OR DOUBLY CONSTRAINED
GRAVITY MODEL BE USED?
BALANCING TRIP PRODUCTIONS AND
ATTRACTIONS SINGLY CONSTRAINED GRAVITY MODEL may be
- Trips generated at the household end are referred preferred if the friction factors are more reliable than
to as productions, and they are attracted to zones for the attraction values.
purposes such as work, shopping, visiting friends,
and medical trips. DOUBLY CONSTRAINED GRAVITY MODEL is
appropriate if the attraction values are more reliable
TRIP DISTRIBUTION than friction factors.
- A process by which the trips generated in one zone
are allocated to other zones in the study area. These Trip distribution can also be computed when
trips maybe within the study area (internal-internal) the only data available are the origins and
or between the study area and areas outside the destinations between each zone for the
study area (internal-external). current or base year and the trip generation
The trip distribution process considers internal- values for each zone for the future year.
external trips (or vice versa) where one end of the This method was widely used when O-D data
trip is within the study area and the other end is were available but the gravity model and
outside the study area. calibrations for F factors had not yet become
operational.
METHODS USED FOR TRIP DISTRIBUTION Used primarily to distribute trips between
zones in the study area and zones in cities
1. GRAVITY MODEL external to the study area.
Preferred because it uses the attributes of They cannot be used to forecast traffic
the transportation system and land-use between zones where no traffic currently
characteristics and has been calibrated exists.
extensively for many urban areas achieved Rely upon an existing O-D matrix.
virtually universal use because of its Cannot reflect changes in travel time
simplicity, its accuracy and its support from between zones, as does the gravity model.
the U.S. Department of Transportation. Most popular growth factor model is the
Widely used and documented trip distribution Fratar method.
model states that the number of trips
between two zones is directly proportional to A more general form of growth factor model than
the number of trip attractions generated by Fratar method is the AVERAGE GROWTH FACTOR
the zone of destination and inversely MODEL. Rather than weighting the growth of trips
proportional to a function of time of travel between zones I and J by the growth across all
between the two zones. zones as is done in the Fratar method, the growth
trips between any zones.
MODE CHOICE - aspect of the demand analysis DATA REQUIRED TO CARRY OUT TRIP
process that determines the number (or percentage) ASSIGNMENT.
of trips between zones that are made by automobile 1. no. of trips that will be made from zone 1 to
and by transit. another (determined in trip distribution
phase)
FACTORS IN SELECTING OF ONE MODE OR 2. available highway or transit routes between
ANOTHER (a complex process) zones
• the traveler’s income, 3. how long it will take to travel on each route.
• the availability of transit service or auto 4. a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains
ownership, how motorists or transit users select a route.
• the relative advantages of each mode in 5. external trips that were not considered in the
terms of travel time, cost, comfort, previous trip generation and distribution
convenience, and safety steps.

TYPES OF MODE CHOICE MODEL THREE BASIC APPROACHES

- depending on the level of detail required; 3 types of 1. DIVERSION CURVES
transit estimating procedure are use: This method is similar in approach to a mode
choice curve. The traffic between two routes
(1) DIRECT GENERATION OF TRANSIT TRIPS is determined as a function of relative travel
-assumes that the attributes of the system are not time or cost.
relevant. Factors such as travel time, cost, and 2. MINIMUM TIME PATH (ALL-OR-NOTHING)
convenience are not considered. These so-called ASSIGNMENT,
“pretrip” distribution models apply when transit The traffic assignment process is illustrated
service is poor and riders are “captive,” or when using the minimum path algorithm.
transit service is excellent, and “choice” clearly Generally, produces accurate results, and
favors transit. adequately demonstrates the basic
(2) USE OF TRIP END MODELS principles involved.
-To determine the percentage of total person or auto -method assigns all trips to those links that
trips that will use transit, estimates are made prior to comprise the shortest time path between the
the trip distribution phase based on land-use or two zones.
socioeconomic characteristics of the zone. This -based on the theory that a motorist or transit
method does not incorporate the quality of service. user will select the quickest route between
(3) TRIP INTERCHANGE MODAL SPLIT MODELS any O-D pair.
-This procedure is illustrated using the QRS method 3. MINIMUM TIME PATH WITH CAPACITY
which takes account of service parameters in RESTRAINT.
estimating mode choice. -A modification of the process

LOGIT MODELS – provides a convenient way to TREND ANALYSIS - This approach to demand
compute mode choice. Choice models are utilized estimation is based on the extrapolation of past
within the urban transportation planning process, in trends. For example, to forecast the amount of traffic
transit marketing studies, and to directly estimate on a rural road, traffic count data from previous years
travel demand. are plotted versus time.
DEMAND ELASTICITY - Travel demand can also be
TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
determined if the relationship between demand and
-The final step in the transportation forecasting
a key service variable (such as travel cost or travel
process is to determine the actual street and
time) is known.
highway routes that will be used and the number of
automobiles and buses that can be expected on
each highway segment.
-The procedure used to determine the expected
traffic volumes.