Small Sample Corrections For LTS and MCD: Springer-Verlag 2002
Small Sample Corrections For LTS and MCD: Springer-Verlag 2002
Small Sample Corrections For LTS and MCD: Springer-Verlag 2002
Abstract. The least trimmed squares estimator and the minimum covariance
determinant estimator [6] are frequently used robust estimators of regression
and of location and scatter. Consistency factors can be computed for both
methods to make the estimators consistent at the normal model. However, for
small data sets these factors do not make the estimator unbiased. Based on
simulation studies we therefore construct formulas which allow us to compute
small sample correction factors for all sample sizes and dimensions without
having to carry out any new simulations. We give some examples to illustrate
the e¤ect of the correction factor.
1 Introduction
2.1 Example
In this example we generated n ¼ 30 points such that the predictor variables
are generated from a multivariate standard Gaussian N5 ð0; I Þ distribution and
Small sample corrections for LTS and MCD 113
Fig. 1. Robust standardized residuals (a) without correction factors, and (b) with correction fac-
tors of a generated data set with n ¼ 30 objects and p ¼ 5 regressors.
the response variable comes from the univariate standard Gaussian distribu-
tion. We used the LTS estimator with a ¼ 0:5 to analyse this data set and
computed the robust standardized residuals ri ðy^Þ=^s based on the LTS esti-
mates y^ and s^. Using the cuto¤ values þ2.5 and 2.5 we expect to find ap-
proximately 1% of outliers in the case of normally distributed errors. Hence,
we expect to find at most one outlier in our example. In Figure 1a the robust
standardized residuals of the observations are plotted. We see that LTS finds
6 outlying objects which is much more than expected. The main problem
is that LTS underestimates the scale of the residuals. Therefore the robust
standardized residuals are too large, and too many observations are flagged as
outliers.
pnn 20 25 30 35 50 55 80 85 100
pnn 20 25 30 35 50 55 80 85 100
Fig. 2. The approximation function fpa ðnÞ for (a) p ¼ 1, a ¼ 0:5 and LTS without intercept, (b)
p ¼ 4, a ¼ 0:875 and LTS without intercept, (c) p ¼ 3, a ¼ 0:5 and LTS with intercept, (d) p ¼ 7,
a ¼ 0:875 and LTS with intercept.
116 G. Pison et al.
Fig. 3. The approximating function gqa ð pÞ for (a) q ¼ 3, a ¼ 0:5 and LTS with intercept, (b) q ¼ 5,
a ¼ 0:5 and LTS with intercept.
When the regression dataset has a dimension that was included in our
simulation study, then the functions fpa ðnÞ already yield a correction factor for
all possible values of n. However, when the data set has another dimension,
then we have not yet determined the corresponding correction factor. To be
able to obtain correction factors for these higher dimensions we fitted the
function values fpa ðqp 2 Þ for q ¼ 3 and q ¼ 5 as a function of the number of
dimensions p ( p b 2). In Figure 3 we plotted the values fpa ðqp 2 Þ versus the
dimension p for the LTS with intercept and a ¼ 0:5. Also in Figure 3 we see a
smooth pattern. Note that the function values fpa ðqp 2 Þ converge to 1 as p goes
to infinity since we know from (4) that fpa ðqp 2 Þ goes to 1 if qp 2 goes to infinity.
The model we used to fit the values fpa ðqp 2 Þ in function of p is given by
h
gqa ðpÞ ¼ 1 þ : ð5Þ
pk
By fitting this model for q ¼ 3 and 5 and a ¼ 0:5 and 0.875 we obtain the
corresponding parameters h :¼ hq; a and k :¼ kq; a for LTS with intercept and
h :¼ h~q; a , k :¼ k~q; a for LTS without intercept. From Figure 3 we see that the
resulting functions fit the points very well.
Finally, for any n and p we now have the following procedure to determine
the corresponding correction factor for the LTS scale estimator. For the LTS
with intercept the correction factor in the case p ¼ 1 is given by c1;a n :¼ f a1ðnÞ
1
where f1a ðnÞ ¼ 1 þ g1; a =n b1; a . In the case p > 1, we first solve the following
system of equations
h3; a gp; a
1þ k
¼1þ ð6Þ
p 3; a
ð3p 2 Þ bp; a
h5; a gp; a
1þ k
¼ 1 þ ð7Þ
p 5; a ð5p 2 Þ bp; a
to obtain the estimates g^p; a and b^p; a of the parameter values gp; a and b p; a .
Small sample corrections for LTS and MCD 117
Fig. 4. The approximation f^pa ðnÞ for (a) p ¼ 1, a ¼ 0:5 and LTS without intercept, (b) p ¼ 4,
a ¼ 0:875 and LTS without intercept, (c) p ¼ 3, a ¼ 0:5 and LTS with intercept, (d) p ¼ 7,
a ¼ 0:875 and LTS with intercept.
Note that the system of equations (6)–(7) can be rewritten into a linear system
of equations by taking logarithms. The corresponding correction factor is
^
then given by cp;a n :¼ 1=f^pa ðnÞ where f^pa ðnÞ ¼ 1 þ g^p; a =nbp; a . Similarly, we also
obtain the correction factors for the LTS without intercept.
Using this procedure we obtain the functions shown in Figure 4. We can
clearly see that these functions are nearly the same as the original functions
fpa ðnÞ shown in Figure 2.
Let us reconsider the example of Section 2.1. The corrected LTS estimator
with a ¼ 0:5 is now used to analyse the dataset. The resulting robust stan-
dardized residuals are plotted in Figure 1b. Using the cuto¤ values F1 ð0:9875Þ
and F1 ð0:9875Þ we find 1 outlier which corresponds with the 2.5% of out-
liers we expect to find. Also, we clearly see that the corrected residuals are
much smaller than the uncorrected. The corrected residuals range between 3
and 2 while the uncorrected residuals range between 5 and 4. We conclude
that the scale is not underestimated when we use the LTS estimator with small
sample corrections and therefore it gives more reliable values for the stan-
dardized residuals and more reliable outlier identification.
Finally, we investigated whether the correction factor is also valid when
working with non-normal explanatory variables. In Table 3 we give the mean
mð^ sÞ for some simulation set ups where we used exponential, student (with 3
df.) and cauchy distributed carriers. The approximated values f^pa ðnÞ of mð^ sÞ
118 G. Pison et al.
n ¼ 20 n ¼ 40 n ¼ 60 n ¼ 80
obtained with normally distributed carriers are given between brackets. From
Table 3 we see that the di¤erence between the simulated value and the cor-
rection factor is very small. Therefore, we conclude that in general, also for
nonnormal carrier distributions, the correction factor makes the LTS scale
unbiased.
The MCD estimates the location vector m and the scatter matrix S. Sup-
pose we have a dataset Zn ¼ fzi ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; ng H R p , then the MCD searches
for the subset of h ¼ hðaÞ observations whose covariance matrix has the low-
est determinant. For 0:5 a a a 1, its objective is to minimize the determinant
of
la Sfull ð8Þ
P hðaÞ P hðaÞ
1
where Sfull ¼ hðaÞ i¼1 ðzi m^n Þðzi m^n Þ t with m^n ¼ hðaÞ
1
i¼1 zi . The factor
la ¼ a=Fw 2 ðqa Þ with qa ¼ wp;2 a makes the MCD scatter estimator consistent at
pþ2
the normal model (see [3]). The MCD center is then the mean of the optimal
subset and the MCD scatter is a multiple of its covariance matrix as given by
(8). A fast algorithm have been constructed to compute the MCD ([8]).
3.1 Example
Fig. 5. Robust distances (a) without correction factors, (b) with correction factors, of a generated
data set with n ¼ 20 objects and p ¼ 4 dimensions.
A Monte-Carlo simulation study is carried out for several sample sizes n and
dimensions p. We generated datasets X ð jÞ A R n p from the standard Gaussian
distribution. It su‰ces to consider the standard Gaussian distribution since
the MCD is a‰ne equivariant (see [7] page 262). For each dataset X ð jÞ , j ¼
1; . . . ; m we then determine the MCD scatter matrix S^ ð jÞ . If the estimator
is unbiased, we have that E½S^ ¼ Ip so we expect that the p-th root of the
determinant of S^ equals 1. Therefore, the mean of the p-th root of the deter-
P m ^ð jÞ 1=p
minant given by mðjS^jÞ :¼ m1 j¼1 ðjS jÞ , where jAj denotes the determi-
nant of a square matrix A, is computed. Denote dp;a n :¼ 1 ^ , then we expect
mðjS jÞ
that the determinant of dp;a n S^ equals approximately 1. Similarly as for LTS,
we now use dp;a n as a finite-sample correction factor for MCD. We performed
m ¼ 1000 simulations for di¤erent sample sizes n and dimensions p, and for
several values of a to compute the correction factors.
From the simulation study similar results as for LTS were obtained. Em-
pirically we found that the mean mðjS^jÞ is approximately linear in function of
a so we reduced the actual simulations to cases with a ¼ 0:5 and a ¼ 0:875.
The other values of a are determined by linear interpolation. Also here we saw
that the mean is very small when the sample size n is small, and for fixed p the
mean increases monotone to 1 when n goes to infinity.
Fig. 6. The approximation f^pa ðnÞ for (a) p ¼ 8, a ¼ 0:5, and (b) p ¼ 6, a ¼ 0:875.
Finally, we return to the example in Section 3.1. We now use the corrected
MCD estimator to analyse the dataset. The resulting robust distances are
plotted in Figure 5b. Using the same cuto¤ value we now find 1 outlier which
corresponds to the 2.5% of outliers that is expected. Note that the corrected
distances are much smaller than the uncorrected ones. The corrected distances
are all below 15.5 while the uncorrected distances range between 0 and 20.
When we use the MCD with small sample corrections the volume of the MCD
scatter estimator is not underestimated anymore, so we obtain more reliable
robust distances and outlier identification.
To increase the e‰ciency of the LTS and MCD, the reweighted version of
these estimators is often used in practice [7]. Similarly to the initial LTS and
MCD, the reweighted LTS scale and MCD scatter are not unbiased at small
samples even when the consistency factor is included. Therefore, we also de-
termine small sample corrections for the reweighted LTS and MCD based
on the corrected LTS and MCD as initial estimators. We performed Monte-
Carlo studies similar to those for the initial LTS and MCD to compute the
finite-sample correction factor for several sample sizes n and dimensions p.
Based on these simulation results, we then constructed functions which deter-
mine the finite sample correction factor for all n and p.
5 Examples
Let us now look at some real data examples. First we consider the Coleman
data set which contains information on 20 schools from the Mid-Atlantic and
New England states, drawn from a population studied by [1]. The dataset
contains 5 predictor variables which are the sta¤ salaries per pupil ðx1 Þ, the
percent of white-collar fathers ðx2 Þ, the socioeconomic status composite devi-
ation ðx3 Þ, the mean teacher’s verbal test score ðx4 Þ and the mean mother’s
educational level ðx5 Þ. The response variable y measures the verbal mean test
score. Analyzing this dataset using LTS with intercept and a ¼ 0:5, we obtain
Small sample corrections for LTS and MCD 121
Fig. 7. Robust standardized residuals for the coleman data (n ¼ 20, p ¼ 5) based on LTS with
intercept and a ¼ 0:75 (a) uncorrected, (b) corrected, (c) uncorrected reweighted, and (d) corrected
reweighted.
Fig. 8. Robust distances for the aircraft data (n ¼ 23, p ¼ 4) based on MCD with a ¼ 0:75 (a)
uncorrected, (b) corrected, (c) uncorrected reweighted, and (d) corrected reweighted.
6 Conclusions
Even when a consistency factor is included, this is not su‰cient to make
the LTS and MCD unbiased at small samples. Consequently, the LTS based
standardized residuals and the MCD based robust distances are too large such
that too many observations are identified as outliers. To solve this problem,
we performed Monte-Carlo simulations to compute correction factors for
several sample sizes n and dimensions p. Based on the simulation results we
constructed functions that allow us to determine the correction factor for all
sample sizes and all dimensions. Similar results have been obtained for the
reweighted LTS and MCD. Some examples have been given to illustrate the
di¤erence between the uncorrected and corrected estimators.
References
[1] Coleman J et al., (1966) Equality of educational opportunity. U.S. Department of Health,
Washington D.C.
[2] Croux C, Rousseeuw PJ (1992) A class of high-breakdown scale estimators based on sub-
ranges. Communications in Statistics 21:1935–1951
[3] Croux C, Haesbroeck G (1999) Influence function and e‰ciency of the minimum covariance
determinant scatter matrix estimator. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 71:161–190
[4] Flury B, Riedwyl H (1988) Multivariate statistics: a practical approach. Cambridge University
Press
Small sample corrections for LTS and MCD 123
[5] Gray JB (1985) Graphics for regression diagnostics. American Statistical Association Pro-
ceedings of the Statistical Computing Section, 102–107
[6] Rousseeuw PJ (1984) Least median of squares regression. Journal of the American Statistical
Association 79:871–880
[7] Rousseeuw PJ, Leroy AM (1987) Robust regression and outlier detection. Wiley-Interscience,
New York
[8] Rousseeuw PJ, Van Driessen K (1999) A fast algorithm for the minimum covariance deter-
minant estimator. Technometrics 41:212–223
[9] Rousseeuw PJ, Van Driessen K (1999) Computing LTS regression for large data sets. Tech-
nical Report, Universitaire Instelling Antwerpen