INDEX

TOPICS.

1.Abstract
2.Introduction
3.Objectives
4.Empirical Analysis
5.Causes of drilanka's worst economic Gris
6.Impacts on the economy
7.Dupact on GDP of Britanka
8.Monetary Policy
9.fiscal Policy
10.Review of literature
11.Diagrammatic Illustration
12.Foreign support
13.suggestions
14.conclusion
15.Bibliography

Abstract
The 2019-2022 Sri Lankan economic crisis, currently affecting the island nation of Sritanta,
is largely attributed to economic mismanagement by its incumbent government. It has led to
unprecedented levels of inflation, near-depletion of foreign exchange reserves, shortages of
medical supplies and price increases in basic commodities. The crisis has been said to be
caused by multiple compounding factors such as tax cuts, money creation, a nationwide
policy to shift to organic or biological farming as well as events such as the Easter bombings
in 2019 and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The subsequent economic hardships resulted in the public openly voicing their dissent,
leading to one of the largest demonstrations in the island's history:
The 2022 So Lankan protests.
Sri Lanka had been earmarked for sovereign default, as the remaining foreign reserves of
Us$ 1.9 billion as of March 2082 would not be sufficient to pay the country's foreign debt
obligations for sosa, with us $ 4 billion to be repaid. An International Sovereign Bond
repayment of US $ 1 billion is also due to be paid by the government in July 2022

According to Alcomberg, Sri lanka has a total of US $86 billion in repayments due in 2022,
including both local debt and foreign debt. In April 2022, Sri Lanka announced that it is
defaulting, making it the füsst sovereign default in sri Lanka history since gaining
independence in 1948.
 Introduction

The 81-billion-dollar Sri Lankan economy is on the verge of collapse. Critics say the roots of
the crises, the worst in several decades, lie in economic mismanagement by successive
governments that created and sustained a twin deficit - a budget shortfall alongside a current
account deficit.
"'Sri Lanka is a classic twin deficits economy" said a
2019 Asian Development Bank working paper. "Twin deficits signal that a country' national
expenditure exceeds its national income, and that its production of tradable goods and
services is inadequate".
The country is set to default on its debts now that it has to repay more than three times the
amount it holds as foreign reserves. From debt trap to inflation, many things contributed to
the ongoing crisis. The Sri lankan economy has been facing a crisis owing to a serious
Balance of Payments (BOP) problem. Its foreign exchange reserves are depleting rapidly
and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the country to import essential consumption
goods. The current Sri lankan economic crisis is the product of the historical imbalances in
the economic structure, the International Monetary Fund (IMF's) loan related conditionalities
and the misguided policies of authoritarian rulers.

Objectives

#To study and understand how Sri Lanka got into a severe economic crisis.
#To know the impacts of the economic crisis on different sectors of the arilankan economy.
# To know how different countries support ari-
Lanka to come out of this worse situation.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
HYPOTHESIS
The principle hypothesis underlying the empirical investigation of my project is to understand
what caused
Sri Lanka's worst economic crisis and what are the impacts on the economy.

METHODOLOGY
The study is based upon secondary data. Secondary data refers to data which is not directly
collected but rather obtained from published and unpublished sources. Common sources of
secondary data include censuses, information collected by government departments,
organisational records and data that was originally collected for other research purposes.
The secondary sources mentioned in the references have been used for rendering a
theoretical explanation to our hypothesis

CAUSES OF SRI LANKA

ECONOMIC CRISIS

* HISTORY / BACKGROUND

When Sri Lanka emerged from a 26-year long civil war in 2009 , its post - war GDP growth
was reasonably high at 8-9% per annum till 2012.
However, its average GDP growth sate almost halved after 2013 as global commodity prices
fell, exports slowed down and impouts rose.
Sri Lanka's budget deficits were high during the war and the global financial crisis of 2008
drained its forex reserves which led to the country borrowing a $2.6 billion loan from the IMF
in 2009.
It again approached the IMF in 2016 for another us$ 1.5 billion loan, however the
conditionalities of the IMF further deteriorated Stilanka's economic health

* TOURISM

The country's tourism sector represented over one-tenth of the GDP of Sri Lanka. In 2019,
then finance minister Basil Rajapaksa - Younger brother to both the president and prime
minister -passed a series of drastic tax wits ahead of parliamentary elections, in a bid to
ease the strain placed on Sri Lanka's economy by the deadly Easter bombings of April 2019.
The multiple bombings, which killed over 260 people, devastated Sri Lanka's tourism
industry, which contributed almost 13% Of the continuous GDP before the pandemic and is
an important source of foreign currency.
But in 2020 the COVID pandemic brought tourism levels to a low point: By 2021, Sri Lanka
had welcomed just 13000 travellers for the year, down from 2.3 million in 2018.
This sector was negatively affected by the 2019 Easter bombings, and the COVID-19
pandemic prevented recovery.
It led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves.

* TAX CUTS AND MONEY CREATION

The Government of Sitanka under president Gotabaya Rajapaksa made large tax cuts that
affected government revenue and fiscal policies, causing budget deficits to soar.
There cuts included increased tax-free thresholds that resulting in a 33.5% decline in
registered taxpayers, reducing VAT to 8%, reducing corporate tax from 28% to 24%, the
abolishment of the Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax and the 2%"nation-building tax'" which
financed infrastructure development. The massive loss of tax revenue resulted in rating
agencies downgrading the sovereign credit rating making it harder to take more debt.
In 2021, P. B. Jayasundera stated that President Rajapaksa was aware of the loss of
revenue but was aware of the loss of revenue but considered it an "investment" and had no
plans to increase taxes for another 5 years.
To cover government spending, the Central Bank began printing money in record amounts,
ignoring advice from The International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stop printing money and
instead hike interest rates and raise taxes while cutting spending.
The IMF warned that continuing its point money would lead to an economic implosion. The
tax cuts were also opposed by the former finance Minister Mangala Samasaweera who
noted that as the Sri lankan government already had far less tax revenue relative to other
countries which combined with its high debt load tax wits would be dangerous.
Samaraweera predicted that 'If these proposals are implemented like this not only will the
entire country go bankrupt, but the entire country will become another Venezuela or another
Greece.
On 6 April 2022, the CBSL allegedly pointed 119.08 billion rupees, making it the highest
renosted amount pointed on a single day by the CBSL for the year 2022.
The total money added to financial markets for the year 2022 increased to Rs. 432.76 billion.

* EXTERNAL DEBT
Since 2010, Sri Lanka's foreign debt more than doubled between 2010 and 2020. While
foreign debt was about 48% of the GDP in 2019, it rose to 119% of its GDP in 2021.
By the end of 2082, the country is expected to pay US $4 billion to debtors, whereas in April
2022, government reserves amounted to US$ 2.3 billion.
Despite commentaries blaming China for the debt crisis, the Australian Lowy institute
pointed out that Sri Lanka was not engulfed in a chinese debt trap", because external debt
owed to china was only about 10% of the debt stock in April 2021. Instead, the majority of Sri
Lanka's external debt stock is owed to international capital markets, which accounted for
47% Another 29% is held by multilateral development banks, followed by Japan having 10%
of Sri Lanka external debt. In January 2022, President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa's office stated
that it would appeal to China to reschedule its debt burden during talks with the Chinese
foreign minister Wang Yi. As of March 2022, there has been no official response from China.
In 2020, SEP Global Ratings said sri lanka's existing funding sources did not appear
sufficient to cover its debt servicing needs, estimated at just over $4.0 billion in
2021. According to the agency Bellwether,"To solve Stilanka's 'Budgetary problem' in
repaying debt, Treasuries auctions have to succeed. When that is done, the transfer
problem' foreign exchange will be automatically solved.
Instead, with failed Treasury bill auctions filled with printed money, the country is slipping
deeper into debt".
To resolve the debt crisis, Bellwether noted that Sri Lanka would need a credible fiscal plan
and monetary policy, increasing taxes to repay debt, and interest rates and opening of
imports would allow taxes to flow back to the Treasury. While it is possible to raise sales and
generate dollars to repay the foreign debt by curtailing domestic credit, it is not practical to
do it on an ongoing basis for many years. If investors see foreign severves going up after
debt repayments, confidence may come back but it is a painful affair, which may or may not
work given the current ideology.
In September 2021, the government announced an economic emergency, as the situation
was further aggravated by the falling national currency exchange rate, inflation rising as
result of high food prices, and pandemic restrictions in tourism which further decreased the
country's income.
This drove Sri Lanka to the brink of bankruptcy due to foreign reserves falling to US $ 1.9
billion as of March 2022, this being insufficient to pay the foreign debt obligations of US $4
billion and an International Sovereign Bond (ISB) payment of US$ 1 billion for the year 2022.
The national inflation rate increased to 11.5% in February 2022, according to the National
Consumer Price Index. The government repaid US $500 million International Sovereign
Bonds which were due in January 2022 despite growing opposition from economic analysts
and experts who all advised the government to postpone the ISB payment in order to
preserve the foreign reserves.
On 12 April 2022, Sri Lanka announced that it will be defaulting on its external debt of $51
billion.

*FALL OF FOREIGN REMITTANCES

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka under Cabraal attempted to maintain the LKR pegged while
continuing heavy money printing and strict exchange controls, pushing down the market
value of rupee. By February 2022 while the government attempted to Keep the currency
pegged at 200 LKR to the USD, unofficial market value of the KR was exceeding 248 to the
US dollar. The foreign workers went on remitting honey through unofficial channels causing
SriLankan banks to run out of foreign currency and foreign remittances to crash with a 61%
reduction in official remittances in January 2022.
In turn Cabraal threatened to freeze bank accounts of those that we unofficial money
transmission methods Then Cabral began targeting merchandise and services exporters
with exporter dollar surrender requirements forcing the residuals after the utilisation of export
proceeds to be converted into LKR and forcefully converting dollars in forex accounts of
residents of sri Lankans who earn dollars salaries ignoring concerns of this creating a similar
situations to remittances. As Banks struggled
Cabrual issued warning letters to CEOs of banks demanding strict adherence to the fixed
conversion state. Former Deputy Governor of CBSL W. A Wijewardana criticised the policies
calling it "Cabraal Nomics 2.0" noting that the dollar is disappearing from official markets
while a superior dynamic black market has caused exporters and immigrants to shun the
formal banking system resulting in dismantling the power of the central Bank as the forex
regulator.

* AGRICULTURAL CRISIS
In April 2021, President Gotabaya Rajapaksha announced that srilanka will only allow
organic farming, totally banning inorganic fertilisers and agrochemicals-bared fertilisers. The
drop in tea production as a result of the fertiliser ban alone resulted in economic loves of
around $485 million and created a 20% drop in rice production within the first six months
alone revousing previously achieved self-sufficiency in rice production and the country was
forced to imported rice at a cost of $450 million. The situation in the tea industry was
described as critical, with farming under the organic program being described as ten times
more expensive and producing half of the yield by the farmers The program was welcomed
by its advisor Vandana Shiva, but it ignored criticism from the scientific and farming
communities who warned about the possible collapse of farming, including a financial crisis
due to devaluation of national currency, which pivoted around the tea industry. Multiple
claims by the government to justify the transition to organic agriculture were compared to
Lysenkoism by critics for example Anusuddha Padeniya a member of the Presidential task
force that carried out the transition to organic farming claimed that Pliny the Elder had
claimed that ancient Srilankans had lived for around 140 years while modern agricultural
method have resulted in it being halved to 74 years.
Both Paderiya and Gotabaya Rajapaksa has associated the use of chemical fertiliser with
chronic kidney disease CKDu but scientific research has pointed towards high hardness of
water due to high mineral concentration mainly of fluoride and magnesium of the water in
areas with a high prevalence of CKDu combined with high heat as the most likely cause. The
World Health Organization also doubted that chemical fertiliser use alone could cause CKDu
The banning of the trade of chemical fertilisers and pesticides produced a severe economic
crisis, since the population expects to remain without income and without food. In November
2021, Sri lanka abandoned its plan to become the world's first organic farming nation
following rising food prices and weeks of protests against the plan.
The government cancelled some measures, but importing urea remains banned. Sri Lanka is
seeking to introduce peacetime rationing of essential goods.

* RUSSIA - UKRAINIAN WAR

The repercussions of the ongoing tense situation between Ukraine and Russia due to the
Russia - Ukrainian
War is felt in the already sluggish economic conditions of Sri Lanka. The 2022 Russian
invasion of Ukraine has further exacerbated the economic calamity of the country as Russia
is the second biggest market to Sri Lanka in tea exports and the Sri Lanka tourism sector is
heavily reliant upon these two nations as most of the tourist arrivals are from Russia and
Ukraine. As a result, the Ukrainian crisis has put a halt to the path of economic recovery of
Sri lanka with both the tea and tourism sector having been hit hard.
 IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
In 2021, the Sri Lankan Government officially declared the worst economic crisis in the
country in 73 years.
In August 2021, a food emergency was declared. However the government denied food
shortages. Sri Lanka's Energy Minister Udaya Gammanpila acknowledged the crisis could
lead to a financial disaster.

* ELECTRICITY AND FUEL SHORTAGES

The economic crisis has resulted in declines in electricity, fuel and cooking gas consumption,
resulting from shortages. Nearly 1000 bakeries have been shut as a response to shortages
of cooking gas. Long queues have formed in recent months in front of petrol filling stations.
The surge in global oil prices further aggravated the fuel shortage. In order to conserve
energy, daily power cuts have been improved by the authorities throughout the country.
Daily seven hour power cuts were seen throughout
March 2021, increased to 10 hours at the end of the month and again increased to 15 hours
in early April.

* EDUCATION SECTOR
In March 2022, several schools in Sri Lanka announced that their term, mid-year
examinations would be postponed indefinitely, due to paper shortages throughout the
country mainly triggered by the lack of foreign reserves to import paper. The term test
examinations were slated to be held island-wide on 28 March 2022 but due to the acute
shortage of printing paper and int ribbons, a decision was made to either fully cancel or
postpone the exams to a later date.

* HEALTH
Doctors are reported to have been forced to reuse
Old and already used up medical equipment to treat the patients due to the shortages of
new equipment. Doctors are also reported to have performed medical surgeries by using the
light of mobile phones. Doctors in rural areas have also been forced to stitch wounds in the
dark due to rolling power cuts. The emergency drugs to treat heart attacks are also reported
to be in short supply
Many other hospitals have also apparently suspended routine surgeries and have also
reduced a large number of laboratory tests. Other state-run hospitals were also reported to
be running out of life saving medicines. On 8 April, the Medical Council of Sri Lanka issued a
warning that there would be a catastrophic number of deaths, which is likely to be in excess
of the combined death of toll of COVID-19, the 2004 tsunami and the civil War, unless a
replenishment of supplies is made in a matter of weeks. Singapore Red Cross Society
issued warning declaring Sri Lanka's medical crises as an "unprecedented humanitarian
crisis’’

*EXPORTS
The Economic Times of India reported that due to the prevailing economic crisis in So
Lanka; leading textile brands including Zara, Mango and H&M have divested their attention
from Sri Lanka to India in order to place their orders. Following the worsening economic as
well as political conditions in Sri Lanka, India has witnessed a sharp surge in overseas
orders for textiles and tea products as export demand for India has increased greatly.

*TOURISM
In March 2022, the United Kingdom and Canada warned their travellers to be aware
of the current economic situation in Sri Lanka.Tourists use boats for watching
coral and for entertainment. Those motor boats are also a reason for marine
pollution. Oil evacuated from boats is harmful for the marine environment. Sea
area which surrounds Sri Lanka is rich with coral reefs.

IMPACT ON GDP
The Sri Lankan economy has been facing one of its worst ever economic crises, resulting
from mismanaged government finances and ill-timed tar cuts, besides the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Huge piles of foreign debt, series of lockdowns, soaring inflation, shortage in fund supply, fall
in foreign currency reserves and devaluation of currency has adversely impacted the
country's economic growth.
Sri Lanka's economy grew at slower-than-expected 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter of the
2021
financial year, taking its full year growth to 3.7 percent, data from the government's statistics
department showed.
The Sri Lankan central bank had projected a growth of 5 percent for the year.

*MONETARY POLICY
On 8 April 2022. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka further tightened the monetary policy
(contractionary monetary policy) to curtain soaring inflation by raising both the standing
lending facility Rate and Standing Deposit facility Rate by 700 basis points.

*FISCAL POLICY
On 30 April 2022, the finance Minister Ali Sabry claimed that the government was looking to
increase taxes, accepting that the tax cuts in 2019 were a mistake.
The 8% VAT was termed "definitely not sustainable" for Sri Lanka and claimed that the rate
should be around 13-14%

*REVIEW OF LITERATURES
* Professor Mick Moore (a highly acclaimed political economist and
professorial fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of
Sussex)

Professor Moore suggested that the current economic conditions in Sri Lanka translate into
the country's worst economic crisis in recorded history and that this crisis, although
exacerbated bc by balling tourism revenues due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions and
rising food and fuel prices, was caused almost entirely by unwise policy decisions made by
the Rajapaksa administration.
Professor Moore outlined that a rapid decrease in national foreign exchange reserves has
created major restrictions on the availability of imported everyday goods, rating fuel, energy,
food, and medicine shortages.
The decrease in foreign exchange reserves has come as the result of the government taking
on a growing number of loans in foreign currencies without being financially capable of
servicing the debt, according to the Professor.

* Dr Mishan de Mel (Verite Research Executive Director and Economist).

"'Sri Lanka is unreasonably committed to repaying its debt. It is more prudent to press pause
on debt repayment and take care of critical economic needs", said by Dr Nishan De Mel.
Some experts believe SriLanka should establish a three -year repayment structure. Doing so
would lessen the burden on Sri Lankan citizens.
 DIAGRAMMATIC ILLUSTRATION
DEBT TRAP
Sri Lanka has foreign-currency reserves of around USD two billion, while the total debt
repayment target in the year 2022 is USD seven billion. of this, USD 1 billion worth of bonds
are maturing as early as July 2022.External debt in Sri Lanka has been on a steep rise since
2005. From USD 11.3 billion in 2005, it rose to USD 21.7 billion in 2010, USD 43.9 billion in
2015, and USD 56.3 billion in 2020 during the COVID pandemic.
China accounted for ten percent of the loans while India constituted two percent as of April
2021 The trouble was that the country's external debt rose quicker than the GDP. The
external debt to GDP ratio rose from 31.6 percent in 2010 to 39.4 percent in 2015, and
further to 40.4 percent in 2020.
The rise in total debt, along with their interest rates together forced the central bank to push
policy rates to check inflation. However the currency tumbled against the dollar and the
central bank drained foreign reserves to hold the exchange rate in place However, these
factors backfired and pushed the Sri Lankan economy into a vicious cycle.
* FOREIGN-CURRENCY RESERVES SLIP
The foreign reserves in Sri Lanka in 2018 were near USD ten billion. This nosedived to
under USD two billion in 2021.
* WEAK CURRENCY
The Sri Lankan Rupee depreciated by more than 50 per cent against the US dollar this year
alone.
This means that Sri Lanka now has to shell out nearly Rs. 310 to buy a dollar now,
compared to Rs.200 in January.
The Sri Lankan Rupee has depreciated against the Indian Rupee by 31.6 percent, the Euro
by 31.5 percent , the pound sterling by 31.1 percent, and the Japanese Yen by 28.7 percent
between January 1 and March 31 ,according to the Central Bank of Sri-Lanka.

* RISING PRICES/ INFLATION

Following the economic turbulence and massive protests against the sudden hike in the
prices of household items, especially food items, cabinet ministers and the central bank's
governor have quit their posts in Sri lanka. The spillovers from a hollow
The economy has now started affecting the common people's pockets. The retail price of
rise in the previous week was 60 percent more than the year-ago level, while the price of
onions was 79 per cent, that of potatoes 66 per cent, and that of an egg was 93 per cent
higher year-оп-уеar.
Altogether, headline inflation rose to 18.1 percent in Masch 2082 from 15.1 percent in
February 2028.
Food inflation stood at 30.8 percent in March, according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka."
The import price of crude oil significantly increased by 45.9 percent in January 2022 (YoY).
Further, the import prices of sugar and wheat increased by 21.1 percent and 18.6 percent
respectively, in January 2022 (Y-O-Y)", the country's central bank explained.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan government sought aid from both India and China and
approached the IMF for a debt relief package. It is struggling to finalise a USD one billion
credit line with India.
 FOREIGN SUPPORT

Beginning January 2022, India has been providing crucial economic support to the island
nation in the grip of a severe dollar crisis that, many fear, might lead to a sovereign default,
and a severe shortage of essentials in the import-reliant country.
In January 202, India pledged a total of US $ 2.415 billion to overcome dire financial
constraints caused by external debt payments and a lack of US
dollars in sri Lanka for business. Under SAARC currency swap arrangement; India extended
a $400 million and also deferred an Asian Clearing Union settlement of around $ 500 million.
India granted a new line of credit worth $ 500 million for the purchase of petroleum products
On 17 March 2022, Sri Lanka received a US$ 1 billion credit line as a lifeline from India in
order to buy urgently needed essential items such as food and medicine. The credit line was
activated after India and Sri Lanka formally entered into a credit agreement during finance
minister Basil Rajapaksa's visit to New Delhi. In April 2028, it was reported that Indian
traders had started loading 40, 000 tonnes of rice for prompt shipment to SriLanka. By 6
April India had sent 270,000 MT of fuel to Sri Lanka. Some of The shipments were met with
bureaucratic hurdles.
Chief minister of Tamil Nadu M. K.Stalin had proposed strategies to provide essential
commodities such as rice, cereals and life saving drugs to the Tamil people in So Lanka who
live in the North, East und Central Provinces of the country. However, Tamil political parties
in Sri Lanka dejected aid exclusively to Tamils and requested that aid be distributed to all
ethnic and religious groups in Sri Lanka.
The Government of Singapore announced that it would provide seed money amounting to
US$100000 as a relief package to support the Singapore Red boss's humanitarian public
fundraising efforts for the most vulnerable
communities in Sri Lanka.

SUGGESTIONS

* Measures for Sri Lanka: The government should take measures for economic
recovery of the country as soon as the shortage of certain essential commodities ends,
which is expected before the start of the Sinhala-Tamil New Year (in mid -April).
The government should also join hands with the Tamil Political leadership to create a
roadmap for the economic development of the war-affected northern and eastern provinces,
among the areas badly hit by the current crisis.
It would be best to raise domestic tax revenue and shrink government expenditure to limit
borrowing, particularly sovereign borrowing from external sources.
Tough measures should be taken for restructuring the administration of concessions and
subsidies.

* India's Assistance: It would be completely unwise for India to let the Chinese take
over expanding chunks of SriLankan Territory. India must offer Sri Lanka financial help,
policy advice and investment from Indian entrepreneurs.
Indian businesses must build supply chains that Intertwine the Indian and StiLankan
economies in goods and services ranging from the export of tea to information technology
services India, rather than any other nation, should help star Sri Lanka towards realising its
potential, to reap the rewards of a stable, friendly neighbourhood.

Preventing Illegal Refuge: The state of Tamil Nadu has already started feeling the
impact of the crisis with the reported arrival of 16 persons from griLanka through illegal
means.
Tamil Nadu was home to nearly three lakh refugees after the anti-Tamil program of 1983.
The authorities, both in India and SriLanka, should ensure that the present crisis is not used
to step up smuggling activities and trafficking or whip up emotions in both countries.

Crisis as an Opportunity: Neither Sri Lanka nor India can afford to have strained
ties. As a much larger country, the onus is on India, it needs to be extremely patient and
engage Sri Lanka even more regulatorily and closely.
There is also a need to step up our people-centric developmental activities while
scrupulously staying clear of any interference in Colombos domestic affairs
The crisis should be used as an opportunity for New Delhi and Colombo to thrash out a
solution to the Palk Bay fisheries dispute - a longstanding initant in bilateral ties.

CONCLUSION
The economic crisis severely affects Unemployment, Inflation, Economic growth, Export and
Import but, Sri Lanka tries to prevent such hazards. Therefore, What is desirable is to
formulate a new /alternate. economic model (based on socially -oriented market economy)
where the benefits of economic development are not concentrated in a few but shared by all.

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