Jeff H Dyer

Professor of Strategy at BYU’s Marriott School of

Management

Nathan Furr
Professor of entrepreneurship at BYU’s Marriott School of
Management
Preliminary Study

The Innovator’s Dilemma, which

first called for a different way of
managing innovation. 2011

The Innovator’s DNA, which identified

1997 the five discovery skills of disruptive
innovators that help them generate
insights.
What Next ?
After you’ve generated an idea for a new
product, process, or service, what is the next
step?
How do you know whether the idea is worth pursuing?
How do you know whether you’ve found a problem worth solving?
How will you know if you’ve nailed a solution to that problem?
In short, what are the tools to test, validate, and commercialize new ideas?
Sources of the Innovator’s
Method
 Sources of the Innovator’s
Method
Design Start-Up
Thinking

Innovation Agile
Software
The Innovation Crisis:
Unprecedented Uncertainty
There are two types of uncertainty that influence a firm’s ability to create a customer:

demand uncertainty
(will customers buy it?)

technological uncertainty
(can we make a desirable solution?).

Uncertainty arises from the unknowns associated with solving any problem, which are sometimes called “unknown
unknowns,” such as hidden customer preferences or undiscovered elements of a technical solution.

The more unknowns there are about customer preferences and behavior, the greater the demand uncertainty.
Technological uncertainty results from uncertainty regarding the technologies that might emerge or need to be created for a
new solution to emerge.
 • Gain deep customer empathy. Understand
customers better than they understand
themselves.
• Go broad to go narrow. Generate lots of
solutions before winnowing the list.
• Experiment rapidly with customers. Seek
feedback early and often.

Drawing on design thinking principles, Cook, Hanson, and

her team created a training program called Design for
Delight (D4D) , a program intended to transform Intuit
into a design-driven innovation machine. Intuit’s D4D
initiative was based on searching for a big unmet
customer need and then applying three principles
 Objective
Uncertainty requires a new set of management principles.

While traditional management works well for problems of relative certainty, it works
poorly for problems characterized by uncertainty.

By using the tools described here, you will learn how to creatively solve high-uncertainty
problems.

You will learn how to transform an idea into a reality ! .

The Innovator Methods
Insight: Savor Surprises
 Insight !
the catalyst for an insight is a

“surprise.”
A surprise is the clue that
you’ve learned something
new that might be a valuable Cost to build PC : $600 or $700
insight—because if you are IBM Sell : $2,500
surprised then others may
be as well.
Capture The
Insight
Select The Insight

Vote test
 Proof Test !
“Paul, Paul, Paul—ads are never going
to work, We’ll never make any money,
or we’re going to target the ads at their
e-mail, which is just going to be creepy
and weird !”

Marissa Mayer Paul Buchheit

Innovators Innovate, Customers Validate

Problem : Discover the Job-to-Be Done
 Step 1: Generate a problem
hypothesis identifying the
Painstorming customer and the jobto-be-
done.

Step 2: Create a journey-line

for the customer and identify
pain points and emotions.

Step 3: Select the biggest pain

points, and conduct a root -
cause analysis.

Step 4: Pick a root cause that

you think is most important to
customers.

Step 5: Identify assumptions

behind the root cause, and then
test them with customers.
Etnography to Explore Assumptions
What are you looking for when you are trying to find monetizable jobs?

Start by looking for obstacles that get in the way of the jobs your
customers are trying to do.

Look for areas where customers are spending lots of time (time sinks)
even if they don’t realize it, workarounds they may have developed to solve a
problem, or things that ignite their
emotions.

facilitate
You might also look beyond the obstacles to the enablers that
something customers want.
Look for how people spend their time expressing themselves, connecting to others,
or creating shortcuts.

People invest time to solve needs and you may find a better way to meet
that need.

Lastly, don’t forget to closely examine non-users as well as extreme

users. Although it can seem counter-intuitive these users can help you understand
the problem more clearly than mainstream users.
“Advice” Interviews
Start by identifying a potential sample of customers that you think have a
similar job to do. When you ask for interviews (via e-mail or cold call), always ask
for advice about a specific customer problem. Ask three questions and then listen,
listen, listen:

1. Quickly and clearly describe the problem you see. Describing the
problem will make customers confident that you know something and will
serve as an anchoring point to the conversation. Don’t go to potential
customers with a blank sheet and expect something to happen.

2. Ask, “Do you face this same challenge, too, or a different

challenge? Tell me about it.” This gives you a chance to find out whether
customers really have the problem you hypothesized. If they don’t, you can
explore what challenges they really face.

1. Ask, “Would something like this solve that problem?” and then
describe your theoretical prototype. At this stage you shouldn’t become too
solution-focused, but discussing a potential solution will help you get better
feedback on the problem. Customers react to the concrete, not the abstract. So
you might think about bringing a drawing, storyboard, or PowerPoint slide to
help them visualize a solution. This will help them talk about why the solution
might, or might not, work to solve their problem.

After five to ten interviews, patterns and trends will begin to emerge, which
will allow you to test your hypothesis and change accordingly
 The Cold Call test

1. Identifying your hypothesized customer

segments and their job-tobe-done

2. Reach out to each customer group via phone

or e-mail

3. Briefly describe the problem, and ask for their

advice on your theoretical prototype.

4. Observe who calls back, why they call back,

and what they say.

*Initialcall-back rates tend to be low (less than 10 percent), but

we’ve seen some companies achieve call-back rates as high as 50
percent when they’ve hit on a monetizable job. Your final goal is
to achieve a significant leap in the call-backrate.
 The Smoke Test
Create a website, advertisement, phone number, or
other channel that describes the problem,
theoretical solution, and provides an option to
“learn more,” “buy now,” “reserve now,” or some
other call to action.

Find a way to get your smoke test in front of

customers, perhaps by using Google AdWords, a
print advertisement, a poster at a trade show, or
another venue where you suspect customers will
see the call to action.

When customers activate (click, call, etc.) the call to

action, they don’t actually get to buy a product, but
they effectively identify themselves as having an
interest in the problem you are investigating. You
can then follow-up to learn more about them and
why they took the action.
Develop a Vision of the Customer Problem
You Will Solve

You cannot ask customers

what innovations they want,
or rely on their feature
requests.

Instead you have to

observe their jobs to be
done,
propose a solution,
and then watch their
reaction.
Solution: Prototype the Minimum “Awesome” Product
Solution Storming
Search broadly for solutions before using
customer tests to help it narrow the options to a
single solution

Most people credit Henry Ford with developing

the modern production line—an invention that
allowed him to make the automobile affordable.
Ford radically transformed the auto industry and
American life. How did he do it?

We see the production line as a “solution,” but

Ford actually developed it by searching broadly,
borrowing ideas such as interchangeable parts
(used insewing machines, firearms, and watches);
continuous-flow manufacturing (usedin processing
flour, canning food, and making cigarettes); and
assembly-line techniques (used in meat-packing
plants and breweries).
Prototyping
• A theoretical prototype expresses your idea as a well-structured mental image in which you outline the
general shape of the solution, but not the specifics. An example of a theoretical prototype might be to ask
customers, “If you could check on your house visually from your smart phone, would you want to?”
• A Virtual Prototype, “pretend-otypes” , If I had to sell the solution today, how could I fake it in a way that
feels realistic? The answer should be a good guide for what you could develop and how fast. Our favorite VPs
use PowerPoint, sketches, off-the-shelf components, or other mock-up tools. Eg: IBM speech-to-text
• Minimum Viable Prototypes, a product having the minimum feature set required to work as a stand-alone
product while still solving a “core” . You build an MVP to rapidly test which features are most likely to drive
customer purchases. Eg: smoke test
• Minimum Awesome Products, develop something that customers cannot resist, something that customers
love, something awesome. The goal of a minimum awesome product is to deliver a solution that is so
extraordinary on the most important dimension that it inspires positive emotion in your customers. Eg : Ipod,
Iphone
Prototyping
Theoretical prototype
Virtual prototype
Minimum viable prototype
Minimum awesome product
Bad Experiment
Most people believe they understand experimenting, but when we teach executives and
students, 90 percent of the time they get it wrong at first. What are the mistakes they make?

No hypothesis or metrics. Don’t conduct an experiment without a clear hypothesis or

without defining how you will measure what you learn.

Wrong tools. Don’t rely on focus groups. They tend to get stuck in groupthink. And avoid
starting with surveys. You don’t yet know what questions to ask.

Bad samples. Make sure you talk to a relevant sample of customers. Often experimenters
pick the wrong people (for convenience), or they talk to everyone (the population). Also, don’t
reformulate your solution between every conversation; wait for a pattern to emerge, and then
reformulate.
Test
The Wow Test
how excited customers are about your
solution, ask customers, on a scale of 1 to 10

The NPS test

Net promoter score (NPS). Recall that NPS is
based on a single question: how likely are you,
on a scale of 1 (not at all likely) to 10
(extremely likely), to recommend this product
or service to a colleague or friend?
“Promoters” answer 9 or 10, “passives”
answer 7 or 8, and “detractors” answer from 1
to 6

The Payment Test

the payment test involves asking customers to
pay for your solution, whether or not you
actually collect the money
Business Model: Validate the Go-to-Market Strategy
The Price Sensitivity Meter Tool

At what price would you

consider the product to be so
expensive that you would not
consider buying it? (Too
expensive)

At what price would you

consider the product to be
priced so low that you would
feel the quality couldn’t be
very good? (Too cheap)
 The Consumption Chain Tool

Purchase
Ten Questions to Ask about the Consumption Chain
5. How do consumers order and purchase your product? Is there away
you can make it easier, less costly, or more convenient to buy?How is
your product delivered? Can you do it faster, cheaper, or ina different
Awareness way?
1. How do customers become aware of a need for your product or Use
service? Is there a way to make it easier or more convenient 6. What frustrations do your customers have when trying to use your
forthem to find your offering?
product? Do they use your product in ways you didn’t expect?
7. What do customers need help with when they use the product
Evaluation 8. Do customers do things that hurt the longevity or reliability of your
2. What is your product really used for? What job is the customer product?
hiring your product to do? 9. How is your product repaired, serviced, disposed of? Are there
3. What does the customer ultimately consider the most important opportunities to make this easier or more convenient (or teach the
features when making a final product selection? (If they had 100 customer how to use the product so that it requires less maintenance, or
points to allocate across all the features they consider important, do self-maintenance)?
how would they allocate them?) Connection
4. Which influencers (reference customers, critics, experts, 10. How might customers connect to and promote your product? How
press,media, peers, direct referrals) are most likely to influence the could you leverage customers’ connections to each other to influence
customer’s evaluation of your product? parts of the consumption chain for your customers and noncustomers?
The Customer
Influence
Pyramid
Love Metric vs Financial Metric
borrow the existing partially related to new or unrelated
• Love Metrics : customer business model the core products
activation rates, customer usage
rates, net promoter score
• Financial Metric :
ROI, contribution to top-line
revenue, etc

• The new H3 and H2 products, in particular,

require rapid experimentation to test
assumptions about the new business
model.
• H3 products require a unique set of
metrics to measure progress in nailing the
new business model. Usually starts by
measuring “love metrics”.
 Busines Model Canvas

1. Value proposition (solution). What is the solution that you’re

offering to provide value to your target customer segment? (The
value proposition emerges from your earlier efforts to nail the
problem and solution.)
2. Pricing strategy. How should you price your solution to
optimize revenue streams and generate profits? How much are
customers willing to pay? How do they prefer to pay?
3. Customer acquisition: relationships. How can you
communicate with and convince your target customers that they
need your solution?
4. Customer acquisition: channels. How do you make it easy for
customers to access your solution? Through which channels do
your target customers most want to be reached?
5. Cost structure: activities. What key activities do you, or your
partners, need to perform well in order to deliver your solution?
6. Cost structure: resources. What resources or assets are most
critical for delivering your solution?
BMC Use Case
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-8v_RgwGe0
pivot
Master the Pivot
• pivot doesn’t mean making minor changes to optimize your solution
or refine your distribution strategy; that is iteration. You iterate after
the data suggests that you’ve pretty well validated a problem,
solution, or business model. In contrast, you pivot when you still
haven’t nailed the problem, solution, or business model so that you
can try a new, more promising approach.
pricing strategy
new problem customer acquisition
the key
new solution strategy (customer
pivot to elements of your
relationships or channels)
new customer business model
segments cost structure (activities or
resources).
Pivot Cycles
set pivot cycles—typically, two-to three-month cycles
during which you conduct experiments to answer key
questions about a problem, solution, or business
model. The cycles should be structured to give enough
time for testing and going deep, but also be short
enough to force rapid development. At the end of a
cycle, you assess the answers to your key questions and
then decide whether to make a change.
Pivot Takeoff
• Should pivot cycles go on endlessly? When do you
know whether you’ve arrived, and how do you get
there? The answer: look for pivot takeoff. Pivot
takeoff occurs when, after making a change, you see
a significant change in the trajectory of customer
interest

• you’ve found a problem worth solving (the level of

customer interest increases significantly)
• the solution you’re currently testing is at least doing
a reasonable job of solving the problem (the level of
commitment or payment increases markedly)

• If you don’t achieve pivot takeoff after six or seven

major pivots over twelve to eighteen months, it may
be time to abandon your problem and solution in
search of something entirely new
scal eI
Recognize When to Scale
• Team priorities will shift from discovering what customers want, to improving the features you
offer, to standardizing the features customers want.

• Managers often must change their product development processes from search (pivoting on
features) to execution (standardizing features) and their resources from flexible (variabilized
costs, flexible people who can search, multipurpose tools) to fixed (fixed costs spread over a large
number of units, experts who can create better solutions)

• As the team grows managers must establish formal communication processes and coordination
tool

• As you build out the team during the growth phase, it’s useful to think about balancing your mix
of innovators (T-shaped) and experts (I-shaped). As you hit scaling inflection points that demand
execution, you should add more I-shaped people and possibly replace some of the original T-
shaped people.
Scale It
When and how should you make this transition to
scaling?

• Market scaling. Recognize when to move from a

minimum awesome product to a whole-product
solution and how to create the legitimacy to
make the transition from early adopters to
mainstream customers.
• Process scaling. Understand how to shift
effectively from discovery processes to execution
processes designed to efficiently deliver the
whole product solution without prematurely
destroying your innovation capabilities.
• Team scaling. Identify how to get the right
people with the right skills for scaling the
company in place while assigning new roles to
people who cannot, or will not, adapt.
V2MOM
Vision where you want to go
Values what things are important to you
Methods what you’re going to do to get there
Obstacles what could prevent you from being successful
Measures how you know whether you’re successful
The Innovator Methods : Summary