Our clean

energy vision
A fossil-free future for
cleanly heating homes
and businesses
National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

We are committed to
playing a leading role
enabling and accelerating
the transition to a clean
energy future, while
ensuring all customers and
communities continue to
have affordable and reliable
options to heat their homes
and run their businesses.

For more information visit:

nationalgrid.com/fossilfree

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 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

Contents

4 1. Mobilizing to help our customers and communities reach net zero

6 2. Our vision for fossil-free heat
8 Energy efficiency in buildings
8 100% fossil-free gas network
10 Hybrid electric-gas heating systems
12 Targeted electrification and networked geothermal
15 Roadmap to achieve our vision
16 3. How our vision benefits all our customers and society
16 Most affordable and practical for customers to reduce emissions
20 Utilizes the skills of our existing workforce
20 A complimentary but diversified electric and gas system is safe, reliable, and resilient
21 More likely to achieve our shared net zero goals by embracing all options
22 4. Public policies to enable our vision
22 Scaling supply and demand for renewable fuels
22 Driving investment in building and renewable heating equipment
23 Evolving infrastructure planning and investment
23 Ensuring consistent greenhouse gas accounting methods
24 5. Conclusion: What our vision means for the Northeast
26 6. Appendix: More about the pillars of our vision
30 7. Notes and sources

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

1. Mobilizing to help our

customers and communities
reach net zero

At National Grid we believe achieving a fossil-free National Grid is mobilizing to achieve net zero emissions
future and addressing climate change is not just a in a way that ensures that all customers share in the
shared responsibility, but one where we must lead. benefits of a clean energy future. Our vision builds
We are undertaking a bold initiative that will set on our previous actions:
a new climate standard for energy companies across
America. From today forward, we are working to enable
a future where every time our customers use energy 2018: We released a Northeast 80 x 50 Pathway
• 
– to turn on their lights, charge their phones, cook white paper exploring strategies for the region to
for their families, or heat their homes and businesses reduce economy-wide emissions at least 80%
– it can be done without fossil fuels. below 1990 levels by 2050
National Grid is announcing our vision to fully eliminate 2019: We announced our Net Zero by 2050 Plan
• 
fossil fuels from both our gas and electric systems by laying out our commitment to achieve net zero
2050 – sooner if possible – setting clear and measurable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 from both
milestones along the way. our own operations and the emissions resulting from
the sale of electricity and gas to our customers
We are making this fossil-free announcement because 2020: We launched our Responsible Business Charter
• 
we share our communities’ concerns about climate change.
• 2
 021: We are proud to be a Principal Partner for
National Grid is proud of our role in helping Massachusetts the UK’s Presidency of COP26 – the United Nations
and New York consistently rank at or near the top nationally Climate Change Conference that brought together
in energy efficiency programs, electric vehicles on roads, 120 world leaders and over 40,000 registered
solar installations, planned offshore wind, and environmental participants to advance national plans to keep
stewardship. In addition to this track record of success, 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming within reach
the states in which we operate have enacted some of the Over the past five years in the Northeast US:
• 
most progressive climate laws in the country, establishing We have connected 2,000 megawatts (MW) of
future requirements for net zero emissions across their distributed solar and 180 MW of battery storage,
economies: New York passed the Climate Leadership supported $3.1 billion in energy efficiency
and Community Protection Act in 2019 and Massachusetts investments for our customers, and enabled
adopted the Next-Generation Roadmap for Massachusetts over 4,400 electric vehicle charging ports in
Climate Policy in 2021. our Northeast service areas.

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 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

Winning the fight against climate change requires us to

collectively achieve emissions reductions across multiple
sectors of the economy – in how we generate electricity,
fuel our vehicles, heat our buildings, and power our industries.

Reducing emissions from the building sector –

predominantly space and water heating, but also
cooking, washers and dryers, fireplaces, outdoor grills,
and industrial processes – is one of the most important
and challenging problems that must be solved to achieve
net zero. Heat is essential to life, and keeping it affordable
and reliable is critical for economic development and
wellbeing. Underscoring our vision for fossil-free heat is
a sincere belief that the net zero path we take must leave
no customer behind, and our actions must be bold, smart
and practical to build our shared clean energy future.

This report describes National Grid’s vision and the steps

we are taking to leverage our existing gas and electric
networks to achieve fossil-free heat fairly, affordably,
and reliably for our customers and communities.

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

2. Our vision for

fossil-free heat

Today, heating makes up about 39% of GHG emissions Draft climate action plans from the Massachusetts and New
in Massachusetts and New York.1 Heating is provided York state agencies propose that nearly 10 million households
by a diverse set of fuels and heating systems. Of the change their heating systems to electric heat pumps by 2050
roughly 10 million households in Massachusetts and (see Figure 1). In Massachusetts and New York, this would
New York, nearly 6 million (57%) have a gas furnace or require over 340,000 customers per year converting their
boiler system, 2.5 million (25%) use a boiler fueled by current heating source to electricity, every year until 2050.
oil or propane, and 1.4 million (14%) use electricity.2
Of those using electricity, most use electric resistance,
an inefficient heating source, and about 100,000 (1%)
use a heat pump – a type of efficient air conditioning
unit that can also provide heat.3

Figure 1. Buildings heating systems in Massachusetts and New York (% of total).

41 10
13 25

2050 2050
Today High
electrification
Our vision
for fossil-free
50
57
25 of heat heat

25
90

Natural gas Electric - resistance Fossil-free gas

Oil Electric - heat pump Hybrid electric fossil-free
Wood and other gas systems

6
 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

National Grid’s vision for fossil-free heat targets National Grid’s vision for fossil-free heat will enable
a hybrid approach. Just as we have decarbonized our customers to have clean heating solutions
electricity with wind and solar, we can decarbonize available to them. Along the way, we can build an
the gas system with renewable natural gas and green integrated energy network that is clean, renewable,
hydrogen. This will enable customers to have choices in and achieves zero emissions.
how to become fossil-free. And, by utilizing our existing gas
and electric networks, our vision will more quickly deliver A better way to net zero
a reliable and cost-effective transition to a net zero future Our analysis shows that using a balanced and diversified
for the entire energy system. approach to heating is the most practical, expedient, and
affordable path to reducing emissions for all our customers.
At National Grid, we believe that electrification of heat will This is consistent with findings from Energy + Environmental
play an important role for some of our customers in achieving Economics (E3), an energy industry consulting firm, who in
net zero. We also believe that we need to offer a diverse their 2022 report developed for the Massachusetts “Future
and practical range of cleaner heating solutions enabling of Gas” proceeding state “A coordinated gas and electric
customers to choose what best addresses their needs decarbonization strategy, utilizing a diverse set of technologies
for performance and cost, without compromising our and strategies, is likely to be better able to manage the costs
shared climate goals. and feasibility risks of decarbonization than scenarios that
rely more heavily on single technologies or strategies.”6 Much
While converting to electric heating may be viable for some like how we are creating a clean electricity network through
customers, others may have challenges due to the upfront the adoption of renewable electric generation sources, such
cost of making this switch or the difficulty of retrofitting as wind and solar, we can achieve a fossil-free gas system
their building. Today, fully electrifying a typical home in through the adoption of renewable natural gas and
Massachusetts or New York costs roughly $20,000-60,000.4 green hydrogen.
Additionally, our analysis finds that – given the physical
limitations of existing buildings – it is technically difficult Our fossil-free vision rests on four pillars of action that will
to electrify 30-70% of building space in the urban areas enable all homes and businesses we serve to meet their
of New York City and Boston and 5-40% outside of those heating needs without the use of fossil fuels by 2050, if not
major cities.5 sooner, achieving net zero emissions while keeping energy
affordable and preserving customer choice.
Figure 2. Pillars of our vision for fossil-free heat.

Pillar one Pillar two Pillar three Pillar four

Energy efficiency 100% fossil-free Hybrid Targeted
in buildings gas network electric-gas electrification
heating systems and networked
geothermal
We will continue to We will eliminate fossil
provide programs for our fuels from our existing We will support our
customers to accelerate gas network no later customers by providing
energy efficiency than 2050 by delivering We will support
them strategies and tools cost-effective targeted
improvements to buildings, renewable natural gas to capture and maximize
including deep retrofits and and green hydrogen electrification on our
the benefits of pairing gas network, including
measures that reduce peak to our customers. electric heat pumps with
gas and electric demand; piloting new solutions
their gas appliance. like networked geothermal.
and support more rigorous
building codes for We will support customers
new buildings. who heat with oil and
propane with strategies
and tools to convert to
heat pumps.

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

Pillar one Pillar two

Energy efficiency in buildings 100% fossil-free gas network
We will continue to provide programs for our We will eliminate fossil fuels from our existing gas
customers to accelerate energy efficiency network no later than 2050 by delivering renewable
improvements to buildings, including deep retrofits natural gas and green hydrogen to our customers.
and measures that reduce peak gas and electric
demand; and support more rigorous building Today, nearly 6 million households in Massachusetts and New
codes for new buildings. York are heated with natural gas. In many homes, gas is also
used for hot water, cooking, dryers, fireplaces, and outdoor
Energy efficiency is a cornerstone of our vision – we expect grills (see Figure 3). Natural gas also fulfills important needs
it can deliver one-third of needed emissions reductions from for businesses in delivering high quality goods and services:
heating. Wider adoption of measures to better insulate and a storable and immediate source of fuel for power plants,
weatherize buildings and replace old appliances with more process heat for industries and manufacturing, cooking for
efficient ones can significantly lower the amount of fuel restaurants, washing and drying at laundromats, and others.
required to keep buildings warm and comfortable as well as Hospitals, for example, are required by federal law to have
provide other services such as cooking. This not only lowers two sources of energy; gas plays a critical role as an
direct costs for customers but also reduces peak demand emergency back-up source when the power is out. Many
and infrastructure that needs to be built. National Grid will universities and schools have their own plants onsite that
maximize energy efficiency’s potential by continuing our generate both power and heat from natural gas and have
nation-leading programs that provide rebates and incentives existing infrastructure to distribute it to their buildings
to customers to adopt these measures in existing buildings. on campus.
We must also construct all new buildings to be highly energy
efficient and ready for a net zero future. Our vision replaces fossil natural gas with fossil-free
– renewable natural gas and green hydrogen – enabling
all our customers to have a clean solution for heating their
homes and operating their businesses in the way they
determine is most affordable and practical for their needs.

Figure 3: Uses of gas in homes and businesses.

Uses of gas Businesses that

in home heating rely on gas

Space Washing Industrial/ Hospitals

heating and drying manufacturers

Scaling up insulation (pictured) and other buildings energy

efficiency improvements are foundational to keeping energy
affordable and achieving our net zero future.
Fireplaces Water Restaurants Universities/
heating schools

Outdoor Cooking Laundromats Power

grills plants

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 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

What is renewable natural gas? RNG can be sourced from a vast number of existing waste
Renewable natural gas (RNG) captures biogases that streams and renewable biomass. Sources are all around us:
naturally emit from society’s recurring waste streams. RNG landfills, farms, wastewater treatment plants, food waste,
turns a liability that negatively impacts the environment into and biomass waste residues (see Figure 4). As the global
a climate solution that can be carried in our existing gas population grows, the World Bank projects solid waste to
network and used in existing customer equipment. increase nearly 70% by 2050.7 RNG helps improve society’s
response to waste and the emissions created from it.
Society will always produce waste, which naturally emits
surface-level methane as it decomposes. RNG reduces Figure 4: Waste streams that can produce renewable
emissions by capturing this potent GHG before it can escape natural gas.
into the atmosphere (and contribute to our changing climate)
and putting it to productive use as an energy resource. In that
process, it provides a double benefit of reducing methane
emissions while providing a source of renewable energy.
By simultaneously capturing methane and displacing
fossil natural gas, RNG has the lowest lifecycle carbon
intensity of any energy source available today.
Additionally, RNG is a reliable source of energy that can be
easily stored and delivered to customers when and where
they need it. And, it is a “drop-in” fuel – able to be transported
through existing gas networks, ensuring customers will not
More than 144 4,400
million metric tons of
need to make changes to their existing appliances. landfills
food waste each year

17,000 19,000
waste water facilities large farms and dairies

RNG is a readily available solution and we have successfully

been injecting RNG into our gas system since 1981. RNG
supply is growing rapidly, increasing by more than six times
nationwide since 2015. Today, there are over 150 plants in
RNG facilities (pictured) capture methane from waste operation in the US and Canada and thousands of additional
– preventing emissions into the atmosphere – and create sites waiting to be developed. Using the existing gas network
a valuable product to use in heating. that connects us to the broader region, this resource can
supply fossil-free gas to heat our homes and businesses.
Our fossil-free vision assumes that National Grid eventually
procures 10%-20% of RNG annual supply potential in the
Eastern US for our customers, roughly in line with our
customers’ share of Eastern US residential and commercial
gas demand today.

9
National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

What is green hydrogen (H2)? Pillar three

Hydrogen, the most abundant chemical element on earth,
offers enormous potential as a source of clean energy and Hybrid electric-gas heating systems
fossil-free heat. When hydrogen gas is burned to release We will support our customers by providing them
its energy, the main byproduct is water vapor. Hydrogen strategies and tools to capture and maximize the
produced using renewable feedstocks is known as green benefits of pairing electric heat pumps with their
hydrogen. One of the most promising green hydrogen
pathways is the process of electrolysis using renewable gas appliances.
electricity from wind and solar, which is carbon free.
Hybrid heating systems utilize both electricity and gas
Hydrogen can help decarbonize multiple sectors, including for providing year-round comfort in homes and buildings.
heat, power generation, and transport. For heating, For example, heat pumps in the Northeast today are
hydrogen can be blended with natural gas or RNG up to mainly installed for cooling to replace old and inefficient
20% by volume, run through our existing gas networks, and air-conditioning. As a result, many customers have hybrid
used in customer appliances without significant upgrades to heating systems, where the heat pump covers cooling and
infrastructure or equipment. In areas with high levels of gas heating during part of the year, and a gas system provides
demand, pure hydrogen also has potential to serve fossil-free heat during the coldest months (see Figure 5). Of customers
heating and other energy needs in dedicated 100% hydrogen adopting heat pumps today, approximately 80%10 choose
clusters. These may be part of “hydrogen hubs” – clusters of hybrid configurations over full electrification. Hybrid
local hydrogen production, storage, and demand – such systems provide a more affordable and reliable mix of
as those in which the US Department of Energy is investing heating and cooling throughout the year, allowing installation
$8 billion to establish around the country to support of smaller and cheaper heat pump systems, while avoiding
innovation and to scale up a hydrogen economy.8 The large and costly modifications to buildings and heating
Northeast is well positioned to host one of these hubs, systems.
and New York, Massachusetts, together with Connecticut
and New Jersey, are developing a proposal to implement Figure 5: Schematic of a hybrid electric-gas heating
a hydrogen hub in the region 9. Driven both by federal system in a home.
government support and by growing interest from companies
seeking to replace fossil fuels, costs of hydrogen are
expected to fall rapidly. In 2021, the US Department of Energy
announced its “Hydrogen Shot” target to reduce the cost of
green hydrogen by 80% over the next 10 years, which would Air source
bring the cost in line with today’s costs for natural gas. heat pump
outdoor
unit
Green hydrogen complements growing renewable
electricity capacity due to its ability to be stored and its Ductwork
flexibility to be used across different sectors. Hydrogen Furnace
can be made during periods when wind or solar resources Fan or boiler
are able to produce more electricity than the grid needs, and
Cooling Winter
then stored for later use, thereby maximizing the benefits of /heating heating
renewable energy resources. Already, a significant number
of offshore wind projects are proposing hydrogen production
through electrolysis as a form of long-duration storage of
renewable energy.
Electricity Electricity Gas

10
 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

Hybrid heating systems utilize both

electricity and gas for providing year-round
comfort in homes and buildings.

11
National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

Pillar four
Figure 6: Schematic of networked geothermal street.
Targeted electrification
and networked geothermal Warm water
In winter, heat pumps
move warm air into
buildings and extract
We will support cost-effective targeted Cool water cold to be stored
Pipes
electrification on our gas network, including piloting underground.
new solutions like networked geothermal. We will Buildings that
produce excess
support our customers who heat with oil and heat, such as those
with refrigeration,
propane to convert to electric heat pumps. can send it to other
In summer, heat buildings in the
Under any heating sector net zero vision, there is an pumps move cold network.
important and critical role for electrification. Air-source heat air into buildings and
extract heat to be
pumps move heat from the outside air into buildings, and also stored underground.
provide cooling. When paired with 100% renewable electricity,
electric air-source heat pumps can play an important role in

Sources: HEET, Eversource, Boston Globe.

achieving net zero for heat, especially where cost-effective.
For example, today it is cost-effective for customers who
heat with oil, propane, or old electric resistance systems Pipes run beneath streets,
to convert to heating with electric air-source heat pumps. like gas utilities’ pipes but
instead circulating water.
Ground-source heat pumps are another electric heating Ground temperatures are
technology that can help reduce GHG emissions. relatively stable – cooler than
Ground-source heat pumps efficiently draw heat from the outside air during summer,
and warmer during winter.
ground and can reduce strain on electric grids compared
to air-source heat pumps, because they are able to more
efficiently heat homes using consistent heat from the earth Ground-source heat pumps can also be connected via
instead of variable heat from the air. Whenever possible, geothermal networks (see Figure 6) to allow customers to
ground-source heat pumps should be encouraged, because share heating and cooling, making geothermal networks even
they minimize electric peak impacts and can fully replace more efficient than standalone ground-source heat pumps.
traditional heating more easily than air-source heat pumps. Installing and maintaining geothermal networks also makes
sense as part of the gas utility transformation, as it utilizes our
skilled workforce who understands underground construction
and it leverages our existing customer relationships.

Air-source heat pumps (pictured) move heat from the outside

air into buildings, and also provide cooling in the summer.

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 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

Summary of how our vision

reduces emissions
At the center of our vision is an integrated, fossil-free gas
and electric system that will enable us to serve all our
customers and communities with fair, affordable, and reliable
heat. Our vision provides a practical path to a clean energy
future, where economy-wide emissions fall 50% by 2030
and 90% by 2050 (see Figure 7).

Figure 7: Economy-wide emissions in Massachusetts and New York in our vision for fossil free heat.

Economy-wide emissions
reductions relative to 1990 50% 75% 90%

350

300
CO2e (100yr-GWP)
Million metric tons,

250

200

150

100

50

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-energy Electricity generation Transport Industrial Commercial Residential

13
 Our clean energy vision
A fossil-free future for cleanly heating homes and businesses

Homes heating with

electric heat pumps
Farms supplying RNG Communities served by
fossil-free gas and
hybrid heating
Landfills supplying
RNG

Blending station for

Wastewater facilities fossil-free gas supply
supplying RNG

Networked geothermal heating districts

RNG imported from

Eastern US region

Community served by
fossil-free gas and
hybrid heating
Renewable-powered
Onshore wind and solar electrolyzers generating
Battery storage green hydrogen

100% hydrogen hub serving industries, Hydrogen storage

power generation, heavy transport,
and communities

Offshore wind powering the

electric grid and electrolysis

Networks

Renewable natural
gas (RNG)
Hydrogen (H2)
Fossil-free gas blend
(80% RNG, 20% H2)
14 Electricity
14
Geothermal
 Roadmap to achieve our vision
Our plan for fossil-free heat April 2022 | National Grid

2050
100% fossil-free heat
2045
2040 Net zero
economy-wide
Wide adoption of fossil-free emissions
heating solutions • Continue to accelerate
deployment of fossil-free
• Blend 20% green hydrogen and 30% RNG in our network gas, clean electricity solutions,
• Build 100% hydrogen hubs serving multiple uses and energy efficiency.
• Deploy hybrid heating systems widely
• Support communities with networked geothermal heating
districts and targeted electrification
2030
• Convert all customers heating with oil to electric heat pumps
• Significantly advance building efficiency. Scale a broad
set of solutions
2022-2025 • Invest in infrastructure to deliver
fossil-free gas and electric solutions
• Serve 10-20% of gas demand with RNG
• Promote adoption of hybrid heating
Set foundation to transition
• Run community-scale pilots of H2 blending
to fossil-free heat
• Support deployment of H2-ready appliances
• 
Support legislative and regulatory policies to grow
fossil-free gas, including adoption of a renewable • Progress neighborhood adoption of networked
heating portfolio standard geothermal heating and targeted electrification
• Develop voluntary tariffs for customer • Convert a majority of customers who heat with
participation in fossil-free gas offerings oil to electric heat pumps
• Continue to convert customers who heat • Continue to support states’ progress toward
with oil to electric heat pumps at pace zero-emission and renewable electricity goals.
• Run neighborhood pilots for green
H2 network blending, networked
geothermal, and targeted electrification
• Promote adoption of hybrid heating
Today
• Demonstrate technical feasibility
and scalability of fossil-free gas
networks
Delivering safe, affordable,
• Continue innovation in
and reliable heat
nation-leading energy • Investing in network modernization to reduce fugitive methane
efficiency programs. emissions and increase safety and reliability
• P
 roviding nation-leading energy efficiency and demand response programs
to help customers lower energy bills and usage
• Accelerating conversion customers who heat with oil to electric heat pumps
• Partnering with NY and MA to propose a regional Hydrogen (H2) Hub
• Participating in university-led H2 blending studies
• Interconnecting renewable natural gas (RNG) projects to our network
• S
 eeking regulatory approval for RD&D to transition the gas network to net zero,
including piloting fossil-free gas and networked geothermal. 15
National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

3. How our vision benefits all

our customers and society

As we build toward a fossil-free future, it is essential Most affordable and practical for
that we leave no customer behind. All customers must
benefit from the clean energy transition. Our vision our customers to reduce emissions
enables customers to continue choosing affordable Lowest cost for society
heating options while achieving our states’ emissions Given concern over inflation and economic inequality,
reduction targets and supporting safe, reliable, and the issue of affordability is one of the most important factors
equitable outcomes for society. when determining the best path toward net zero. On average,
we estimate our vision will save our communities $110-200
billion dollars in economy-wide costs by 2050 compared
 e believe an integrated, fossil-free gas and
W to a high electrification approach, which is similar to the
electric system will provide our customers and “All Options” pathway developed in the Massachusetts 2050
society, clear benefits: Decarbonization Roadmap and “Scenario 3: Accelerated
Transition Away from Combustion” scenario developed in the
• lowest cost for society New York State Climate Action Council Draft Scoping Plan
(see Figure 8).11 These cost savings are a direct result of
• provides customers affordable choices to heat leveraging existing gas system infrastructure, including
their homes and businesses customer heating equipment, to both achieve net zero
• results in more equitable outcomes, keeping energy targets and keep customers warm during the coldest
affordable for everyone times of the year.
• gives customers smarter, practical heating choices
Figure 8: Relative economy-wide costs to reduce
• utilizes the skills of our existing workforce emissions in Massachusetts and New York, 2020-2050.
• supports a reliable and resilient energy system
by not having “all our eggs in one basket” 590
600
• allows a more manageable build out of electric
infrastructure 500
390
• more likely to achieve our shared net zero goals 400
by embracing all options.
$ Billion

300

200 380
270
100

0
Our vision for High electrification
fossil-free heat of heat
Upper cost range
Lower cost range

16
 GasOur clean Vision
Strategy energyReport
vision April 2022 | National Grid
March

The issue of affordability is one

of the most important factors
when determining the best path
toward decarbonization.

17
National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

Provides customers affordable choices For residential customers living in single-family homes,
to heat their homes and businesses hybrid heating systems have been shown to be the most
The answer to “what heating choice is most affordable for cost-effective solution for the next decade.15 Hybrid heating
me?” will vary depending on the unique circumstance of each systems are able to lower customer costs by utilizing the
of our customers and the timing of that choice. In our service strengths of both the gas and electric systems – they can
area today, heating with gas is the most cost-effective option run on renewable electricity when it’s available and switch
for virtually all customers. Especially for low to moderate to fossil-free gas for the winter months, leveraging the gas
income customers, affordable heating is crucial. system that has already been built to heat our customers’
homes. Hybrid heating systems also significantly lower
As heating technologies and net zero policies evolve, it will upfront equipment and building energy efficiency upgrade
be possible to continue delivering affordable heating options costs for customers who want some heating electrification.
without endangering sustainability goals.
Not only does our fossil-free vision bring lower heating
For residential customers living in older, multi-unit buildings costs, it also keeps electricity rates lower by avoiding
and for many of our commercial and industrial customers, significant overbuilding of generation supply and network
findings from external studies show that reducing emissions upgrades. Compared to a high electrification pathway,
through efficient, fossil-free gas heat is likely to be the most electricity rates under our vision are expected to be
affordable option for the next three decades. Electrifying heat approximately 5-10% lower in 2040 and 10-15% lower in
in these building types will require more expensive heating 2050 than high electrification approaches because it requires
equipment or more significant building retrofits.12, 13,14 less generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure
buildout. By keeping overall rates for electricity lower, it will
make it more affordable to use heat pumps, charge electric
vehicles, and power everyday appliances. As a result,
the average consumer is expected to save 15-20% on
their overall energy costs in a given year compared to a
high electrification approach (see Figure 9). This is significant
savings and real money for an average household. By saving
$800-1,000 per year on energy costs, families will have more
money for other essentials such as food and housing.

Figure 9: Annual total energy spend for a typical customer in 2040 (2021$). Heating equipment (annualized)
Electric heating bill
Gas heating bill
-$800 -$1,000
Electric transport cost
(-15%) (-20%)
Other electric costs
5,100

4,300
4,100

Heating
costs

Transport
and other
energy costs

Electric heat pump Hybrid heating 100% gas heat

In high electrification of heat In our vision for fossil-free heat

18
 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

Results in more equitable outcomes, Our vision allows for adoption of new cleaner and
keeping energy affordable for everyone fossil-free empowered heating technologies to happen
Ensuring energy equity must be an important goal for on a timeline that is more practical for customers.
all of us who care about our customers and communities. In contrast, a high electrification approach would require
90,000 homes to electrify per year in Massachusetts and
Relative to a high electrification approach, our vision to 250,000 homes to electrify per year in New York. What does
eliminate emissions from heating results in fairer outcomes this mean in reality? This means roughly 2,000 full electric
for society. For example, our customers should not have conversions per week in Massachusetts and 5,000 in New
to spend $20,000-60,000 in upfront costs to fully electrify York, every week from now until 2050. Either household
their homes in order to have clean energy.16 In our vision, electrification rates would need to increase by roughly
access to clean heating is more equitable because more 15-20 times, or half of households would need to replace
customers can have clean energy with their existing their gas appliances and heaters before their useful end
appliances and heating equipment. of life in order to achieve net zero by 2050.17

In short, utilizing both renewable electricity and a fossil-free At normal levels of heating equipment turnover,
gas system to achieve net zero will significantly reduce Massachusetts and New York cannot come close to
upfront cost barriers for customers and keep customer electrifying everything by 2050. Adoption rates similar to
energy bills more affordable by avoiding significant historical home appliance adoption levels imply a 40-50%
amounts of new infrastructure. shortfall (see Figure 10). A strategy that relies on customers’
willingness to spend thousands of dollars to replace heating
equipment that is currently working well is unlikely to
Gives customers smarter, more practical succeed. Instead, a better and more equitable way to
heating choices achieve net zero emissions by 2050 is to transition the gas
The reality is that a large share of buildings in the Northeast network to fossil-free fuels. This ensures all our customers
are difficult to electrify – and this will remain an enduring will have fossil-free heating regardless of their choice in
problem. Our fossil-free vision allows customers to use heating appliances.
existing equipment and appliances to achieve net zero
and provides an invaluable option for customers who
have trouble electrifying. Figure 10: Heating appliances that could be electrified
in Massachusetts and New York with normal levels of
In addition to the challenges mentioned above, there may turnover (millions).
also be other practical challenges that make electrification 11 100% of heaters
difficult, such as a renter’s ability to convince their landlord
to install a new heating system, the availability of equipment,
or finding the skilled labor to install an electric heat pump at
the time it is needed. Our vision provides more options for
renters and disadvantaged communities to have access 4.5 Further adoption
that would be
to clean energy. required to electrify
100% of heaters

6.5 Projected adoption

at equipment end
of life based on
historical appliance
adoption rates
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

Utilizes the skills of our A complementary but diversified

existing workforce electric and gas system is safe,
Our fossil-free vision puts the existing skill set of our reliable, and more resilient
gas workforce, including over four thousand union Supports a reliable and resilient energy system
workers, at the heart of the clean energy transition. by not having “all our eggs in one basket”
Empowering our gas workers to play a crucial role in ensuring
states achieve their net zero targets will keep important jobs Relying on one system for everything – heat, transport,
available and leverage the skill sets we already have within and power – is riskier than a system with redundancy.
our talent pool today. Our workforce is uniquely skilled to An underground pipeline system doesn’t have storm-related
transform our existing gas system to deliver RNG and green outages, and can be leveraged to improve the reliability
hydrogen, as well as install new heating technologies such of the overall energy system.
as networked geothermal loops.
Utilizing both a fossil-free gas system and electric network
It will also help retain the talent necessary for ensuring the can reduce the risk of relying on a single energy system for
safe and reliable operation of the gas network throughout the the region’s heating capacity, and the fundamental health,
energy transition while providing robust training opportunities security, and safety issues that result from heating service
for individuals interested in transitioning to roles within the interruptions, such as storms. Our fossil-free vision supports
electric industry. Maintaining a role for the gas network in a reliability by reducing dependence on high gas volumes
net zero future reinforces the enduring value of our frontline during peak times – E3’s Technical Analysis of
union gas workforce as we build this new energy future. Decarbonization Pathways report for Massachusetts showed
that a high electrification scenario would need 50% more total
gas volume on a peak day to generate electricity as
compared to scenarios that utilize the gas network for heat
and 15% more gas volume than peak day gas consumption
today.18 This is because gas generation is required on days
when there is little sunshine for solar and variable amounts
of wind for renewable electricity generation. We expect similar
trends to hold true for New York, given similar levels of
electrification needed.

Allows a more manageable build out

of electric infrastructure
By utilizing an existing energy network, our fossil-free vision
supports a more manageable energy transition by relieving
pressure to site, permit, and build electric infrastructure at
unprecedented rates. The reality is that we would need more
electric infrastructure to electrify transport and heating than
we have today. Why would such infrastructure be needed?
In a high electrification future, winter peak demand would
The gas industry provides tens of thousands be double today’s summer peak and 2.5 times greater than
of good-paying union jobs across the Northeast. the current peak demand for electricity in the winter.19 Due
to a shift in reliance toward renewables that vary with the sun
and the wind, some of which do not perform well in winter
(e.g. solar), we would need to increase the amount of
electric supply capacity by about 3.5 times to cover a
cold winter day in an all-electric scenario (see Figure 11).
This would also require approximately 6,500 miles of new
or upgraded high voltage electric transmission lines across
New York and New England – requiring the siting and
permitting of approximately 40 to 50 new high voltage
transmission lines in the Northeast before 2050 (as pictured).20

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 Our clean energy vision April 2022 | National Grid

In contrast, using fossil-free gas avoids the additional costs

and challenges of 80 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and
associated transmission and distribution networks – 25 GW
in New England and 55 GW in New York. This avoids the
siting, permitting, and construction of one third of these
challenging projects, which typically take 4-8 years to
permit and build.

More likely to achieve our shared

net zero goals by embracing all options
Achieving net zero targets over the next few decades
will be challenging, but we have a higher chance of
succeeding if we embrace all options versus picking
winners and losers. Although net zero models and scenarios
help us make informed decisions, we will undoubtedly face a
number of unknowns that will shape our path to net zero that
are out of our control. For example, what impact will recent
A high electrification of heat approach will require building global and geopolitical events have on energy prices or
significant additional electric infrastructure, such as high energy security? How vulnerable is an energy system that
voltage transmission lines (pictured) to supply greater is fully electric to outside attack by a foreign actor? Reducing
amounts of electricity at peak times. our dependence on fossil fuels further insulates us from
geopolitical volatility.

Figure 11: Electricity supply capacity in New England Our fossil-free vision improves reliability by providing a critical
and New York (GW) redundancy and preserves and provides options for
+80 customers without sacrificing or jeopardizing our net zero
goals. In our vision, there are clear ‘offramps’ available.
285 For example, if low carbon gas prices evolve differently
than expected, higher electrification could be leveraged.
In contrast, taking steps that remove clean gas options
today would shut down a wide range of options that would
205
be difficult to re-open later.

85

2050 2050
Today Our vision for High electrification
fossil-free heat of heat

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

4. Public policies to enable

our vision

Many of the policies to enable our vision for fossil-free Complementing these portfolio standards, state and federal
heat are already in place, such as renewable electricity incentives should be put in place to support growing
portfolio standard (RPS), energy efficiency programs investment in equipment to capture biogas (e.g. “digesters”)
and targets, and heat pump incentives. To complete and clean and condition it to RNG to make hydrogen
the picture, a few additional state and federal policies (e.g. “electrolyzers”). Other states with emissions reduction
would allow greater progress towards net zero, goals have already implemented these complementary
such as: policies, such as California and Washington.

Scaling supply and demand Driving investment in buildings

for renewable fuels and renewable heating equipment
New York and Massachusetts should drive toward net zero State and local building codes are essential drivers of efficient
gas by establishing renewable gas procurement standards and fossil-free-ready new construction, and should prioritize
for utilities. Following the successful examples of state highly-efficient building envelope improvements to reduce
renewable electricity portfolio standards, renewable gas the amount of energy required to provide comfortable heat.
standards should: Energy efficiency policies should increasingly incentivize
measures that reduce both annual heating demand as well
as peak demand on the gas network, including in targeted
• require gas utilities to procure a growing proportion of gas network locations.
their gas from RNG and renewable green hydrogen
over time – by creating a RPS for the gas network, Existing utility incentives for renewable heating equipment
as was done for the electric network, or evolving the should be expanded, supporting more customers with
way regulators evaluate gas supply plans to include lower-carbon options best suited to their needs – including
consideration of environmental benefits hybrid/dual-fuel, all-electric, and high-efficiency gas
configurations. Where possible, ground-source heat
• allow further voluntary options to allow customers pumps should be encouraged, including networked
seeking to decarbonize faster to choose higher geothermal (or “district”) systems, because they minimize
blends of renewable gas (up to 100%), much peak electric impacts and can fully replace traditional heating
like they can choose varying percentages of more easily than air-source heat pumps. Appliance standards
renewable electricity. for high-hydrogen gas blends should likewise be developed.
Finally, market-based carbon pricing mechanisms should
be established to provide long-term price signals for cleaner
heating and provide an additional source of revenue for
efficiency and heating incentive programs.

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Evolving infrastructure
planning and investment
Regulatory planning processes should support long-term
network strategies that promote the most efficient use of the
gas and electric systems for heating, including geographically
targeted fossil-free strategies (e.g. hydrogen clusters or
electrified neighborhoods). Current planning processes only
look out 2-5 years. This horizon should be expanded for gas
and electric utilities.

Gas planning practices, service regulations and cost recovery

should support both the delivery of renewable gas and the
reduction in overall gas demand over time. Sufficient
regulatory funding should be provided for the research,
development, and demonstration (RD&D) of innovative
technologies required to meet state climate targets.
In addition, policy frameworks should be established to
guide utility investment in renewable district thermal networks,
providing an additional tool for achieving fossil-free heat.

Ensuring consistent greenhouse

gas accounting methods
Transparent and consistent GHG accounting methods are
essential across all sectors of the economy, including the
energy sector. Accounting methods should be standardized
across our state and federal jurisdictions, and they should be
as consistent as possible with international standards. New
York and Massachusetts accounting should evolve to properly
account for the life cycle carbon of different forms of RNG,
recognizing the environmental benefits of RNG from waste
and of displacing fossil gas in end-use equipment. In addition,
standard approaches are needed across the Northeast for
measuring the impact of fugitive emissions from our gas
distribution network.

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

5. Conclusion:
What our vision means
for the Northeast

How does our vision meet state and • 

Puts the existing workforce at the heart of the clean
energy transition: Our workforce is uniquely skilled to
regional decarbonization goals? transform our existing gas system to deliver RNG and
• 
It fully eliminates reliance on fossil fuels for heat green hydrogen, as well as install new technologies such
and achieves this at lower cost and hassle for customers as networked geothermal.
than high electrification proposals under consideration
in Massachusetts and New York. • 
Strengthens resiliency and reliability: Our vision is a
more resilient and reliable solution. A high electrification
• 
It improves our likelihood of achieving our climate approach puts all our eggs in one basket, relying on
goals by reducing the amount of new infrastructure one system for power, transport, and heating. By
required and enabling customers to have multiple options decarbonizing the gas system in parallel with the electric
for clean energy and heating their homes and businesses, system, it creates a more resilient energy system.
instead of being mandated to switch to all-electric.
• 
Practical and achievable pathway to net zero:
Our vision includes tangible and near-term milestones to
How does our Pathway better achieve make clean heat solutions accessible to all our customers.
the climate goals of the region?
• 
Lower heating costs: It delivers 15-20% lower home What we will do in the near-term
heating costs than a high-electrification approach. This to enable a fossil-free future?
will help keep energy costs more affordable.
• 
Provide input to Massachusetts and New York state
• 
Leaves no customer behind: It supports equitable climate plans. We will engage in the public feedback
outcomes for disadvantaged communities. By avoiding sessions for our state climate action plans, highlighting
large upfront investments, our vision enables all customers the benefits of our fossil-free vision for all residents and
to have access to clean energy. businesses.
• 
Preserves customer choice: Our vision is a practical
approach that gives customers choice in their heating
options to reach net zero, and suits the diversity of
buildings in the region. Under our pathway, customers
will not have to purchase all new appliances.
• 
Leverages existing Infrastructure: It requires
significantly less generation, transmission, and distribution
infrastructure. By leveraging existing infrastructure,
it reduces the challenge of achieving net zero.

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

6. Appendix:
More about the pillars
of our vision

Energy efficiency in buildings 100% fossil-free gas network

Continued deployment and scaling up of energy Renewable natural gas
efficiency measures will be foundational to keeping energy Renewable natural gas (RNG) is surface methane captured
affordable, avoiding the need to build additional infrastructure from the natural decomposition of organic waste. It has all the
and achieving our shared net zero energy future. In our vision, same characteristics of and can be used interchangeably with
improved energy efficiency reduces final demand for heat by traditional natural gas – to heat buildings, generate electricity
more than half relative to today – through a combination of or fuel vehicles. Whereas traditional natural gas is sourced
buildings thermal envelope efficiency, heat pump efficiency, from fossilized organic material underground, RNG can be
and gas appliance efficiency (see Figure 12). sourced from a vast number of existing waste streams.
Potential sources of supply are in every community,
Figure 12: Final demand for heat in buildings in our vision including at our landfills, farms, dairies, and wastewater
for fossil-free heat (relative to today). treatment plants, and in everyday sources like our food
waste and biomass waste residues, like lawn clippings.

RNG contains biogenic carbon that is part of the planet’s

natural carbon cycle and does not release additional
carbon into the atmosphere when consumed, unlike
-55% traditional natural gas which contains geologic carbon.
By capturing RNG, we eliminate emissions at the source
and, by using it, we displace emissions of geologic carbon.
Because biogenic carbon is part of the natural carbon cycle,
emissions from RNG use are considered carbon neutral.21, 22

Improved efficiency RNG offers value in converting waste into a climate solution
Final heat demand that can reliably serve diverse energy needs using existing
infrastructure. It reduces emissions by providing an economic
incentive for local communities to capture methane before
it can escape into the atmosphere and exploits an otherwise
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

unused energy source to offset use of traditional natural gas.23

RNG is a reliable source of renewable energy that can be
easily stored and delivered to customers when and where
they need it. And it is also considered a “drop-in” fuel – able
to be transported through existing gas infrastructure and
used in existing customer equipment without modifications.

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Large accessible RNG resources are untapped and could be Green hydrogen
developed to meet the residential and commercial fossil-free Hydrogen, the most abundant chemical element on earth,
heating needs of the Northeast. The most comprehensive offers enormous potential as a source of clean energy.
study to date on the availability and costs of RNG in the When hydrogen is converted to useable energy in a fuel
United States, completed by ICF for the American Gas cell or burned to release its energy, the only byproduct is
Foundation in 2019 24, estimated a maximum technical water vapor. And when hydrogen is produced with renewable
potential – with no economic constraints – of 6,300 TBtu feedstocks it is known as green hydrogen, and is carbon free.
in the Eastern US. With economic considerations taken into
account, the supply potential was estimated to be between Hydrogen has the potential to help decarbonize multiple
685 – 1,500 TBtu in 2040 in US regions already connected sectors, including power generation, transport, and heating.
by pipeline to the Northeast (see Figure 13). For heating, hydrogen can be blended with natural gas or
RNG up to 20% by volume and run through gas networks
Figure 13: Eastern US renewable natural gas (RNG) and used in customer appliances without significant upgrades
resource potential (Tbtu). to infrastructure or equipment. In areas with high levels of gas
demand, pure hydrogen also has potential to serve fossil-free
6,300 heating and other energy needs in dedicated 100% hydrogen
Share of Eastern US RNG clusters. These may be part of hydrogen hubs – clusters
economic potential of local hydrogen production, storage, and demand
required for our vision (see Figure 14).
2030: 10-20%
2040: 5-15% Figure 14: Illustration of a multi-purpose hydrogen hub.

1,500

665 685
326

Low High Low High Full

case case case case technical
2030 2040 2040

Hydrogen is a valuable option for its complementarity to

Our fossil-free vision assumes National Grid eventually growing renewable electricity capacity, its ability to be stored
procures 10-20% of RNG annual supply potential in the and its flexibility to be used across different sectors. Green
Eastern US for our customers, roughly in line with our hydrogen can be made during periods when wind or solar
customers’ share of gas demand today in the supplying resources are able to produce more electricity than the grid
geography.25 Sources of RNG supply are rapidly developing needs, and then stored for later use, thereby maximizing the
and being contracted as utilities and individual customers benefits of renewable energy resources. Already, a significant
seek fossil-free options to decarbonize heating and other number of offshore wind projects are proposing green
uses. In the US and Canada, over 250 RNG facilities are in hydrogen production through electrolysis as a form of
operation today, more than 110 are under construction and long-duration storage of renewable electricity. The gas
growing interest by end-users and developers indicate an network itself can serve as a large storage reserve by
accelerating pipeline of supply ahead. carrying hydrogen.

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National Grid | April 2022 Our clean energy vision

Hydrogen development to enable the energy transition While existing customer heating and cooking appliances
is receiving strong government support and interest from could use low blends of hydrogen, higher blends or 100%
industry. The US Department of Energy’s Earthshot hydrogen require new units with modifications to burners,
Initiative aims to reduce the cost of green hydrogen to $6-7 fittings and sensors. 100% hydrogen-ready appliances are
per MMBtu in the next 10 years 26 – a target that we assume already being demonstrated commercially in the UK, where
is reached and would bring the cost in line with today’s costs manufacturers are supporting a hydrogen-ready standard
for natural gas (see Figure 15). The Bipartisan Infrastructure for all equipment sold by 2025 and have pledged to match
Investment and Jobs Act passed by Congress in February the price to conventional gas equipment.
2022 allocated $8 billion to establish regional clean hydrogen
hubs, one or more of which could be sited in the Northeast; Hybrid electric-gas heating systems
$1 billion for RD&D to reduce costs of hydrogen produced Hybrid – or dual-fuel – heating systems pair an electric heat
from clean electricity; and another $500 million to support pump and gas heater in a building. The electric heat pump
hydrogen equipment manufacturing and domestic provides cooling in the summer and heating during the more
supply chains.27 temperate “shoulder” seasons. The gas heater provides
heating during the coldest months of the year, when
Figure 15. Hydrogen commodity cost estimate 2020-2050. temperatures fall below a threshold temperature.
Depending on gas during these coldest periods allows
15 customers to install a smaller, more affordable heat pump
than would otherwise be needed if the heat pump was sized
US DOE Hydrogen to cover the customer’s full heat load. Heating needs served
10 Earthshot by the gas component of the hybrid system vary according to
$1 / kg = $5-6 / MMBtu heat pump specifications (size and balance point temperature)
$ / MMBtu

and climate.
10
For many customers, hybrid systems can offer a clean
solution that is more comfortable, cost-effective and
10 practical for serving cold weather heating needs compared
with an all-electric installation. They avoid using inefficient and
costly electric resistance as the supplemental heating source
0 during the coldest months. They also allow customers who
use gas today to continue using their existing gas heater and
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
avoid larger building changes that might be required for an
all-electric system, while still capturing the summer cooling
and shoulder season heating benefits of heat pumps. For the
Pilot projects are proliferating across the US – covering broader energy system, hybrid heating adoption across the
production, storage, pipeline transmission and distribution, customer base can help to lessen electric supply and network
end uses, and use in power generation.28 In New York, infrastructure challenges by avoiding high electric peak loads
National Grid has launched the HyGrid Project to build one during winter.
of the first and largest clean hydrogen projects in the country
to blend green hydrogen into existing gas networks, Hybrid heating systems are already being adopted in our
and Plug Power is investing in a large green hydrogen region today. Nearly all gas customers in the Northeast who
production facility to supply fuel for multiple uses.29 have installed an electric heat pump to date have retained
their existing heater, effectively gaining cooling and hybridizing
Hydrogen to supply our customers could be sourced from a their heating. Sustainability advisors like E330 and McKinsey
mix of renewable generation and electrolyzer capacity in the & Co. have suggested hybrid systems as an important option
Northeast as well as imports. If we relied only on dedicated to decarbonize heat in the Northeast and other regions.
offshore windfarms to produce the amount of hydrogen in
our vision, it would require 7-11 GWs of additional capacity,
compared to existing plans in the Northeast to build about
40 GW of offshore wind by 2050.

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Targeted electrification For example:

and networked geothermal
National Grid’s vision embraces our role as a leader Reliability and critical loads
in evaluating opportunities for non-pipe alternatives, Targeted electrification should minimize impact on
including consideration of targeted electrification and gas network performance. For example, mains that
networked geothermal systems. In specific instances, supply multiple lower-pressure distribution networks
it may be possible to coordinate electrification of heat across or critical customers (e.g. hospitals) would be difficult
multiple streets or neighborhoods. The main difference to electrify, while smaller segments that do not serve
between networked geothermal and targeted electrification critical system requirements would be easier.
through air-source heat pumps is that the former has better
winter performance and places lower strain on the electric System economics
grid. This is because networked geothermal systems Targeted electrification should optimize the economics
exchange heat with the ground (which stays at a constant of avoided gas network investment and additional
temperature below a certain depth) instead of with the electric grid investment. For example, it would be
outside air, which fluctuates more widely. For this reason, preferable to target electrification in areas where
ground-source heat pumps have higher efficiency and substantial leak-prone-pipe investment is required,
lower electric needs. rather than in areas where new main has been recently
installed. Similarly, it should aim to minimize
This targeted approach can have positive impacts, provided significant electric grid investment, for example where
that the benefits of avoided gas infrastructure outweigh costs are high or siting issues are acute. In such areas,
the incremental electric system upgrade costs. While this for example, upgrading to hydrogen-readiness is
approach has not yet been piloted at scale in the Northeast, likely to be preferable. This optimization would require
and there are likely to be a range of regulatory issues, there understanding key gas and electric network
are affordability, safety, and reliability criteria that can guide characteristics, for example: capacity ‘headroom’
our approach. on the electric system, cost of electric upgrades in
different parts of the network, cost and expected timing
of pipe replacement in different parts of the network,
and customer density (e.g. meters per mile) as a proxy
for customer contributions to system investment.
In sum, a paradigm shift toward whole system
optimization is likely to be required, to minimize
costs on the path to net zero.

Customer economics and practicality

Targeted electrification should minimize customer cost
and disruption. This could be achieved by focusing
on areas with a prevalence of building types that
can be electrified at relatively lower cost (e.g. newer,
detached homes) and where customer disruption
could be minimized.

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7. Notes and sources

1
Sum of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial million metric tons 9
New York State, “Governor Hochul Announces Multi-State Agreement
of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions divided by economy-wide Signed with Major Hydrogen Ecosystem Partners to Propose a Regional
Total emissions from U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Summary Clean Energy Hydrogen Hub,” March 2022, available at https://www.
Table 4. State energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector,” governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-multi-state-agree-
2018, available at https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/ ment-signed-major-hydrogen-ecosystem-partners
2
U.S. Census, “American Community Survey B25040 House Heating 10
(16,235 total ASHP - 2,933 total full ASHP replacements) / 16,235 total
Fuel” for Massachusetts and New York, 2020, available at https://data. ASHP customers = 82% partial ASHP installations from Mass Save,
census.gov/cedsci/table?t=Heating%20and%20Air%20Conditioning%20 “Massachusetts Energy Efficiency Program Administrators Quarterly
%28HVAC%29&g=0400000US25,36&tid=ACSDT5Y2020.B25040 Report, Fourth Quarter, 2021”, section titled Bi-Annual Data, at 3 of 75,
2021, available at https://ma-eeac.org/results-reporting/quarterly-reports/
3
Estimated 1% electric heat pump adoption in Massachusetts from
low historical adoption rate from Mass Save, “Massachusetts Energy 11
Massachusetts values for “Our vision for fossil-free heat” based on cost
Efficiency Program Administrators Quarterly Report” section titled range for “Hybrid Electrification” and “Efficient Gas Equipment” scenarios
Bi-Annual Data at 3, 2019-2021, available at https://ma-eeac.org/ and “High electrification” based on “High Electrification,” “2030 CECP,”
results-reporting/quarterly-reports/. Estimated 1% electric heat pump and “100% Gas Decommissioning” scenarios from E3 Decarbonization
adoption in New York from VEIC, “Ramping Up Heat Pump Adoption in Pathways Report at 12-13. New York values for “High electrification”
New York State” at 4, September 2018, available at https://www.veic.org/ based on NPV of Net Direct Costs for “Accelerated Transition” from
Media/default/documents/resources/reports/veic-ramping-up-heat-pump- Climate Action Council Draft Scoping Plan, “Appendix G: Integration
adoption-in-new-york-state.pdf Analysis Technical Supplement” at 66, February 2022, available at
https://climate.ny.gov/Our-Climate-Act/Draft-Scoping-Plan. A fossil-free
4
Upfront air-source heat pump and building retrofit costs estimated gas pathway has not been publicly modeled for New York, so values for
as $29,000 - $36,000 in Massachusetts from Energy + Environmental “Our vision for fossil-free heat” scale New York costs proportionally based
Economics (“E3”), “The Role of Gas Distribution Companies in on scenario costs calculated for Massachusetts.
Achieving the Commonwealth’s Climate Goals: Technical Analysis of
Decarbonization Pathways” (“E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report”) at 12
E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report at 41-42.
102, March 2022, available at https://thefutureofgas.com/content/down-
loads/2022-03-21/3.18.22%20-%20Independent%20Consultant%20Re- 13
New York City Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, “Pathways to
port%20-%20Decarbonization%20Pathways.pdf. Upfront air-source heat Carbon-Neutral NYC: Modernize, Reimagine, Reach” at 38, April 2021,
pump and building retrofit costs estimated as $21,087 (Residential Single available at https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/sustainability/downloads/pdf/
Family Basic Shell + Air Source Heat Pump) - $59,814 (Residential Single publications/Carbon-Neutral-NYC.pdf
Family Deep Shell + Air Source Heat Pump) from Climate Action Council
Draft Scoping Plan, “Appendix G: Annex 1: Inputs and Assumptions 14
BloombergNEF, “New Energy Outlook 2020,” at 59, available at https://
[XLSX]” at Bldg_Res Device Cost tab, February 2022, available at https:// about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook-2020/
climate.ny.gov/Our-Climate-Act/Draft-Scoping-Plan
15
E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report at 102.
5
National Grid estimate based on Arup analysis of existing state
and municipal building data. 16
Upfront air-source heat pump and building retrofit costs estimated as
$29,000 - $36,000 in Massachusetts from E3 Decarbonization Pathways
6
E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report at 19. Report at 102, March 2022, available at https://thefutureofgas.com/
content/downloads/2022-03-21/3.18.22%20-%20Independent%20Con-
7
World Bank, “Brief: Solid Waste Management,” February 2022, sultant%20Report%20-%20Decarbonization%20Pathways.pdf. Upfront
available at https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/brief/ air-source heat pump and building retrofit costs estimated as $21,087
solid-waste-management (Residential Single Family Basic Shell + Air Source Heat Pump) - $59,814
(Residential Single Family Deep Shell + Air Source Heat Pump) from
8
U.S. Department of Energy, “DOE Establishes Bipartisan Infrastructure Climate Action Council Draft Scoping Plan, “Appendix G: Annex 1: Inputs
Law’s $9.5 Billion Clean Hydrogen Initiatives,” February 2022, available and Assumptions [XLSX]” at Bldg_Res Device Cost tab, February 2022,
at https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-establishes-bipartisan-infrastruc- available at https://climate.ny.gov/Our-Climate-Act/Draft-Scoping-Plan
ture-laws-95-billion-clean-hydrogen-initiatives

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17
4,000 homes estimated to have adopted air-source heat pumps 25
U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Natural Gas Consumption by
in Massachusetts from E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report at 98. End Use” for Residential and Commercial, available at https://www.eia.
Massachusetts would need to install roughly 90,000 heat pumps a year gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_a_EPG0_vgt_mmcf_a.htm
to electrify 2.5 million buildings that aren’t already electrically heated in the
next 28 years. Of 43,418 homes estimated to have adopted air-source 26
U.S. Department of Energy, “Hydrogen Shot,” available at https://www.
heat pumps in New York, half estimated to be for NEEP’s Cold Climate energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-shot
Specification and assumed to be maximum number of full-home heaters
from VEIC, “Ramping Up Heat Pump Adoption in New York State” at 4, 27
U.S. Department of Energy, “DOE Establishes Bipartisan Infrastructure
September 2018, available at https://www.veic.org/Media/default/docu- Law’s $9.5 Billion Clean Hydrogen Initiatives,” February 2022, available
ments/resources/reports/veic-ramping-up-heat-pump-adoption-in-new- at https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-establishes-bipartisan-infrastruc-
york-state.pdf. New York would need to install roughly 250,000 ture-laws-95-billion-clean-hydrogen-initiatives
heat pumps a year to electrify 7.1 million buildings that aren’t already
electrically heated in the next 28 years. 28
S&P Global Market Intelligence, “US hydrogen pilot projects build up
as gas utilities seek low-carbon future,” October 2021, available at
18
E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report at 65. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/lat-
est-news-headlines/us-hydrogen-pilot-projects-build-up-as-gas-utilities-
19
ISONE 22 GW summer peak and 20 GW winter peak in 2020 and seek-low-carbon-future-65570349
59 GW winter peak in the “High Electrification” scenario in 2050 from E3
Decarbonization Pathways Report at 59. NYISO 31 GW summer peak 29
Plug Power, “Plug Power To Build North America’s Largest Green
and 24 GW winter peak in 2020 and 50 GW winter peak in 2050 in the Hydrogen Production Facility In Western New York,” February 2021,
“Accelerated Transition Away from Combustion” pathway from Climate available at https://www.ir.plugpower.com/Press-Releases/Press-Re-
Action Council Draft Scoping Plan, “Appendix G: Annex 2: Key Drivers lease-Details/2021/Plug-Power-to-Build-North-Americas-Largest-Green-
and Outputs [XLSX]” at All_Peak by Scenario tab, February 2022, Hydrogen-Production-Facility-in-Western-New-York/default.aspx
available at https://climate.ny.gov/Our-Climate-Act/Draft-Scoping-Plan
30
E3 Decarbonization Pathways Report. E3, “Philadelphia Gas Works
20
Estimated 4,500 miles overloaded from ISO New England, “2050 Diversification Study,” December 2021, available at https://www.phila.gov/
Transmission Study” at 15, available at https://www.iso-ne.com/static-as- media/20211207134817/PGW-Business-Diversification-Study-2021-12.
sets/documents/2022/03/a4_2050_transmission_study_preliminary_n_1_ pdf. E3, “New England Reliability Under Deep Decarbonization,”
and_n_1_1_thermal_results_presentation.pdf. Internal estimate of 2,000 November 2020, available at https://www.ethree.com/wp-content/up-
miles for NYISO assumes build out of 1,400 miles of West – East and loads/2020/11/E3-EFI_Report-New-England-Reliability-Under-Deep-De-
North – South transmission and 600 miles of local transmission. carbonization_Full-Report_November_2020.pdf
21
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “2019 Refinement to the
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,” Chapter
2: Stationary Combustion, Section 2.3.3.4 Treatment of Biomass, 2019,
available at https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/pdf/2_Vol-
ume2/19R_V2_2_Ch02_Stationary_Combustion.pdf
22
CDP,”Guidance & questionnaires,” available at https://guidance.cdp.net/
23
MJ Bradley, “Renewable Natural Gas: The RNG Opportunity for Natural
Gas Utilities” at 1, April 2017, available at https://www.mjbradley.com/
sites/default/files/MJB%26A_RNG_Final.pdf
24
ICF, “Renewable Sources of Natural Gas: Supply and Emission Reduction
Assessment” at 68-69, December 2019, available at https://gasfounda-
tion.org/2019/12/18/renewable-sources-of-natural-gas/

31
 April 2022. NG13251/WS.

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