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I
UNIT 9 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES
Structure
Objectives
Introduction
Vital Statistics in India
Role of Population in Economic Development
9.3.1 Effect of Population Growth on Economic Development
9.3.2 Effect of Economic Development on Population Growth
Trends in Population Growth
9.4.1 Extent of Population Growth
9.4.2 Three Phases of Demographic Transition
9.4.3 Inter-State Differences
Rural-Urban Distribution and Growth
9.5.1 Urbanisation Process
Sex and Age Composition
9.6.1 Age Structure
9.6.2 Sex Ratio
Dynamics of Population Growth
9.7.1 Measures of Fertility
9.7.2 Reasons for High Birth Rate
9.7.3 Measures of Mortality
9.7.4 Migration
Adverse Effects of High Population Growth Rate
India's Population Policy
9.9.1 Clinical Approach
9.9.2 Family Welfare Approach
9.9.3 National Population Policy, 2000
9.9.4 Assessment of Population Policy
Let Us Sum Up
Key Words
Some Useful Books
AnswersMints to Check Your Progress Exercises

9.0 OBJECTIVES
After going through this unit you would be able to:
Explain the role of population in economic development;
Reproduce the trend of population growth in India;
Summerise the composition of population in terms of sex and age;
Explain the factors influencing population growth in India; and
Describe the population policy in India.

9.1 INTRODUCTION
-..
The development of any economy, to a signifidnf extent, depends on the availability
of hatural and human resources. In the previous unit, we discussed the status of
natural resources available in India. In this unit, we will focus on population or
liuman beings as a resource or as input for the developme@ of an economy. You
might have noticed that population in a country performs two rbles - first, it contributes
an important input that is labour, in the production of goods and services; second,
it is the ultimate consumer of goods and services produced.
 - --

Resource Base of Indian The development of an economy depends upon the quality of human resource, that
Economy is the quality of population, it has. Size, growth rate and composition of population,
migration, standard of living of people, etc., are some of the factors that influence> I

the development pattern of a country.

In this unit, we will highlight some of these issues in Indian context. But before that
let us look into the availability of data on vital statistics in India.

9.2 VITAL STATISTICS IN INDIA

Vital statistics means data on births and deaths. Availability of accurate data on these
vital events is quite important for studying the features of population. In India, there
are two important sources of vital data. One, the population census of India conducted
every 10 years. The second is the vital registration system where every birth and
death is recorded on a continuous basis.

The beginning of census taking in India can be traced back to 1872 when the results
of censuses conducted for different parts of the country around that time were
aggregated. A complete and synchronous (that means, at the same time) Census has
been held in India since 1881 once in every 10 years. Thus, the 2001 census represents
the 14th census of India and the 6th after Independence. The census is quite
comprehensive covering the whole population of the country on a number of economic
and social characteristics. The census is conducted by the census organisation, which
has been functioning on a permanent basis. The results of the census are summarised
in hundreds of tables published in a number of volumes. Thus, it becomes an important
source of data on the Indian economy. The major limitation of the census data,
however, is that it is not available for the inter-census years. Only we can have some
estimates for the years between two censuses.

The other source of data is through vital registration system. As you may be aware,
it is oblig~toryon the part of every citizen of India to report births and deaths in a
family to the Registrar's office. However, many deaths and births remain unreported,
as many do not realise the importance of such registrations. Thus, the data available
through vital registration system in India is less than the actual (underestimate).

In order to provide reliable estimates of birth rates and death rates at state and
national levels, the office of the Registrar General, India initiated the Sample
Registration System (SRS) scheme in 1964-65 on pilot basis in a few states. SRS was
extended to all the states from 1969-70. Under the SRS, a sample of the population
(instead of the entire population, as is done in the census) is surveyed on a continuous
basis. The SRS data is very helpful in forecasting future size, distribution and growth
pattern of population.

9.3 ROLE OF POPULATION IN ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT
There is close relationship between growth rate and composition of population and
economic development of an economy. The relationship is two-way. It means growth
rate of population affects economic development and, in turn, economic development
influences growth rate of population of an economy.

9.3.1 Effect of Population Growth on Economic Development

As mentioned above population provides an important input, namely labour. Thus,
we can say that greater the size of population, greater is the labour force. From
microeconomic theory we have learnt that as the level of labour input is increased Demographic Features
in a firm, the level of output produced increases, provided marginal product of labour
is positive. But law of diminishing returns operates and marginal product of labour
could be negative after certain level. In such a situation application of more labour
actually reduces the output. Thus a firm stops application of labour before its marginal
product is zero. Now let us consider the repercussion of excess supply of labour for
an economy.. Faster population growth over a limited period may help economic
development by providing the necessary manpower, if the size of the population is
much below the capacity based on natural resources. But, if the economy has a large
size of population and is accompanied by high growth rate in population, economic
development may get affected adversely.

There are two main channels through which population growth affects economic
development. One, it decreases rate of savings and two, it changes the composition
of investment.

A higher rate of growth in population reduces the rate of savings in the economy.
With high birth rate and low mortality in the younger age group, the proportion of
children in the economy goes up. Again, with increase in longevity, the proportion
of aged people in the economy increases. The overall effect is a higher dependency
ratio (that is the ratio of dependents or non-working population to working population).
Since both dependents and working population must consume, a larger proportion of
income is devoted towards consumption. Consequently savings rate declines.

With an increasing population, a share of investible resources has to be devoted

towards basic necessities of life. For the additional people, minimum facilities like
health care, education, housing, justice, law and order, etc. have to be provided. Very
little is left for investment in production of goods. Thus, economic development gets
slowed down.

High population growth also implies that a major part of the growth in national
income is distributed over the additional population, and the growth rate in per capita
income slows down. Suppose, an economy is growing at 5 percent per annum and
population is increasing at 2.3 per cent per annum, then per capita income of people
will increase at 2.7 percent per annum only. Had the growth rate of population been
lower, say 1.5 percent, then per capita income would be growing at 3.5 percent per
annum.

9.3.2 Effect of Economic Development on Population Growth

The above discussion shows that high population growth rate adversely affects
economic development. However, the impact of economic development on birth rate
is also not insignificant. It is observed world over that less developed economies are
characterised by 'high population growth' and 'low level of economic development'.
On the other hand, all developed countries are experiencing low population growth
rate. In Table 9.1 you may notice that in developed countries like Japan and U. S.
A. birth rate is much lower than developing economies like Uganda and Zimbabwe.

There are some evidences to show that higher level of per capita income and high
literacy, particularly female literacy, are associated with low birth rate.
I
Resource Base of Indian able 9.1: Demographic Feature of selected Countries
Economy (for the year 1997)

Country Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Infant Life Per Capita
(per 1000) (per 1000) Increase Mortality Expectancy GNP**
(percent) Rate* (in years) (in US $)

I . India 29 10 1.9 75 59 340

2. Bangladesh 31 II 2.0 77 58 240

3. Pakistan 39 11 2.8 91 61 460

4. Uganda 51 22 2.9 81 41 240

5. Zimbabwe 40 14 2.7 53 51 540

6. Japan 10 7 0.2 4 80 39.640

7. U. S. A. 15 9 0.6 7.3 76 26,980

8. Germany 10 11 -0.1 5.1 77 27.510

9. Russia 9 14 -0.5 18 65 2,240

10. Australia 14 7 0.7 1.8 75 18,720

* Per thousand of live birth. ** For the p a r 1995 in US S.

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 1997.

There are some other indicators of economic development, which have a negative
relationship with birth rate, and size of family. It is seen, within a developing country
itself, that urban areas have a lower birth rate and higher standard of living than rural
areas. Also, higher income families have lesser number of children. Parents, with
improved awareness, plan their family size so as to provide better education to
children. These facts hint that reduction in birth rate is possible with economic
development.

Empirical evidences lead to the view that economic development is a must h r

reduction in birth rate. Thus, a school of thought advocates that a country should
concentrate on economic development. However, development of an economy is a
long run process, and cannot be achieved in the short-run. Hence, a developing
country must plan its population growth along with economic development. This is
the reason why population policy finds an important place in the overall development
process of an economy. This fact is recognised since the first Five Year Plan in India.
We will discuss the approaches to the population policy pursued in India later, in
Section 9.9.

9.4 TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH

Let us bring out the important features of population growth in India during the 20th
century. We will highlight the growth in total population and factors influencing this
growth pattern.

9.4.1 Extent of Population Growth

India is the second most populous country in the world and comes next only to
China. The ten most populous countries in the world, in 1997, are China 1237
million, India 970 million, U.S.A. 268 million, lndanesia 204 million, Brazil 160
million, Russia 147 million, Pakistan 138 million, Japan 126 million, Bangladesh .
122 million and Nigeria 1 1 1 million. According to the 19%7 estimates, out of the Demographic Features
world's total population of 5,840 million, India accounted for 970 million persons.
The population of the world is distributed in an inhabited land area of 135.2 million
square kilometers. While India accounts for only 2.4 per cent of this area, its share
in the world's population is 16.6 per cent. Thus, the density of population in India
is nearly 7 times the world's average density. On an average, there are 324 persons
per square kilometer in India, according to the 2001 census.

Table 9.2: Population of India and its growth 1901-1991

Year Total population Total Increase Growth Rate (percent)

(in million) during the Decade Decadal Annual
(in million) (Exponential)
7

1901 238.40
191 1 252.09 13.69 5.75 0.56
1921 25 1.32 -0.77 -0.3 1 -0.03
1931 278.98 27.66 1 1 .OO 1.04
1941 3 18.66 39.68 14.22 1.33
1951 36 1.09 42.43 13.3 1 1.25
1961 439.23 78.15 21.51 1.96
1971 548.16 108.92 24.80 2.20
1981 683.33 . 135.17 24.66 2.22
1991 846.37 163.04 23.86 2.14
200 1 1027.02 180.65 21.34 1.93

Soufce: Ninth Five Year Plan, 1992-97.

India's estimated population of 1027 million persons in 2001 was more than 4 times
the size of the 1901 population of 238 million, and nearly 3 times the number of
1951, the year planning started in India. As you can see from Table 9.2, the population
growth of India has shown three distinct phases. Up to 1921, there was a fluctuating
growth. In, fact, there was a decline in total population during the decade 1911-21.
Widespread famine and epidemics were the main cause of such a decline. After
1921, up to 1951, there was a steady but low population growth. Population growth
during the decade 1941-51 was 13.31 percent. However, beginning from 1951, there
was a sudden increase in population growth. During the decade 1951-61, the population
growth rate was 21.51 per cent. This went up to 24.8 per cent during 1961-71.
Although there is a marginal decline in the rate of population growth since 1971, it
still continues to be high. If the present rate continues, India's present population will
be doubled in coming 36 years.

The increase in India's population by 181 million (from 846 million in 1991 to 1027
million in 2001) was more than the population of Brazil, the fifth most populous
country in the world (see Section 9.4.1 for five most populous country in the world).
Every year India adds to her a population, which is more than the total population
of Australia.
,
There is much variation across in decadal growth rate in population. Bihar has
witnessed the highest rate of population groGth during the decade 1991-2001 while
Kerala has experienced the lowest at 9.42%. Some of the high growth states are
Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana. On the other hand low growth states are Kerala
(9.42%), Tamil Nadu (1 1.19%) and Andhra Pradesh (13.86%).
Resour= of Indian 9.4.2 Three Phases of Demographic Transition
Economy
Historical evidence from presently developed countries indicates that an economy
has to pass through three stages of demographic transition. They are:
1) High birth and high death rates .
2) High birth and low death rates
3) Low birth and low death rates

In the fifist stage, which coincides with very low level of development, the birth rate
is quite high. At the same time, the death rate is also quite high. As a result, the
population growth rate (i.e., birth rate minus death rate) is very low. In India we see
that till 1921, population growth rate was low even though both birth rate and death
rate were high. Thus, the period before 1921 can be considered as the first stage of
demographic transition in case of India.

As an economy develops, there is an improvement in the standard of living. People

get bettei nutrition, living place, work condition and sanitation. Also, more resources
are divefled towards establishment of hospitals and availability of medicines. As a
consequence, quality of health improves and death rates decline. However, birth rate
is not influenced as quickly as death rate. Birth rate, to some extent, depends on
another set of variables such as family expectations, awareness, values and culture,
which require a longer time period to change. The result is high population growth
rate, which is the second stage of demographic transition. In fact, this is the phase
of populdtion explosion. A glance at Table 9.2 will show that India is passing through
this phase at present. The death rate has declined while birth rate is still high.

The third stage of demographic transition is marked by low birth rate and low death
rate and the growth rate of population again slows down. As an economy proceeds
on its development path, there is increased standard of living, high female literacy,
high mobility of people, increase in cost of rearing a child, participation of women .
in workforce, increase in the age of marriage, adoption of birth control devices, etc.
These are some of the factors, which are supposed to bring down birth rate. Most of
the developed economies have reached the third stage of demographic transition.
Some parts of India, such as Kerala, can be considered to have reached this stage of
demographic transition.

9.4.3 Enter-State Differences

As you know, India is a vast country. There are marked differences between states
in terms of population density, birth rate, death rate, life expectancy, etc. Thus, it
would be useful if we analyse the population growth patterns in various states. Table
9.3 presents data on some important population charactetistics at the state level.

In the Table 9.3 given below you can see that most of the states have witnessed lower
increase in population (in percentage term) during 1981-91 compared to the previous
decade. However, there were some states where the decadal increase during 1981-
91 was higher than that in the previous decade. These states are Andhra Pradesh in
the South, Madhya Pradesh in the Central, West Bengal in the East, Maharashtra in
the West, and Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Tripura in the North-Eastem
region. In some of the major states, the decline has been substantial, for example,
Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala and Rajasthan.
 Table 9.3 : State - Wise Distribution of Population a n d Vital Rates

SI. State Decadal Decadal Population Crude Crude Infant %Urban Total Year by Life
No. . variation variation 1991 (in Birth Rate Death Rate Mortality Area Fertility which TFR of Expectancy
1971-81(%) 1981-91(%) million) (1996) (1996) Rate (1996) (1991) Rate (1991) 2.1 will be in year
achieved (1992)

I. Andhra Pradesh 23.10 23.82 66.30 22.7 8.3 66 26.84 3.00 2002 60.6
2. Arunachal Pradesh 35.15 35.86 0.86 21.9 5.6 61
3. Assam 23.36 23.58 22.29 27.7 9.5 75 11.08 3.50 20 15 54.9
4. Bihar 24.06 23.49 86.34 32.1 10.2 72 13.17 4.40 2039 58.5
5. Goa 26.74 15.96 1.17 14.1 5.8 13
6. Gujarat 27.67 20.80 41.17 25.5 7.6 62 34.40 3.10 2014 60.1
7. Haryana 28.75 26.28 16.32 28.8 8.1 68 24.79 4.00 2025 62.9
8. Himachal Pradesh 23.71 19.39 5.1 1 23.0 8.0 62 8.70 63.6
9. Jammu & Kashmir 29.69 28.92 7.72 23.83
10. Karnataka 26.75 20.69 44.82 23.0 7.6 ' 53 30.91 3.10 2006 61.9
I I. Kerala 19.24 13.98 29.0 1 17.8 6.2 13 26.44 1.80 1988 72.0
12. Madhya Pradesh 25.27 26.75 66.14 32.4 11.1 97 23.21 4.60 2060 54.0
13. Maharashtra 24.54 25.36 78.71 23.2 7.4 48 .38.73 3 .OO 2008 64.2
14. Manipur 32.46 28.56 1.83 19.4 5.7 27
IS. Meghalaya 32.04 3 1.80 1.76 30.4 8.9 45
16. Mizoram 48.55 38.98 0.67
17 Nagaland 50.05 56.86 1.22 6
18. Orissa 20.17 19.50 31.51 26.8 10.7 95 13.43 3.30 2010 55.5
19. Punjab 23.89 2.26 2.19 23.5 7.5 52 29.73 3.10 2019 66.4
20. Rajashtan 28.07 43.88 32.3 9.1 86 22.88 4.60 2084 58.0
21. Sikkim 50.77 27.57 0.40 20.0 6.5 47 . -
22. Tamil Nadu 17.50 14.94 5564 19.2 7.9 54 34.20 2.30 1993 64.2
23 Tripura 31.92 33.69 2.74 18.3 65 45
24. Uttar Pradesh 25.49 25.16 138.76 34.0 10.2 85 19.89 5.10 2 100 55.9
25. West Bengal 23.17 24.55 67.98 22.8 7.8 55 27.39 3.20 2009 61.5

*
Resource Base of Indian There is wide difference in terms of birth rate among stafes. While birth rate continues
Economy
to be as high as 34.80 per thousand of population in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan,
it has declined to a level of 17.70 in Kerala and 20.70 in Tamil Nadu. Infant
mortality rate (IMR) (it is the number of children who die within one year of age
per thousand live births) is quite high in Orissa (99, Madhya Pradesh (97), Rajasthan
(86) and Uttar Pradesh (85). Life expectancy (which is a measure of average life
span of people) is also quite low in these three states. Note that these three are
amongst the poorer states in India.

Generally it is seen that in a majority of states with high population growth rates, the
performance in the social and economic sector has been poor. Illiteracy, poverty and
poor development seem to co-exist and reinforceeach other in these states.

9.5 RURAL-URBAN DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH

Table 9.4 presents the rural-urban distribution of India's population from the beginning
of the present century. In 1901, only 10.8 per cent people lived in urban areas. The
proportion declined slightly to 10.3 per cent in 191 1, after which it increased steadily,
and rose to 25.7 per cent in 1991. This increase in percentage of urban population
over a period of seven decades seems modest when compared with the urbanisation
rates of many developing countries. However, if seen in absolute numbers, the urban
population increased from 25.8 million in 1901 to 217.1 million in 1991, which is
not small by any standard. As per projections, India's urban population comprises 26
percent of the total for the year 1997. Thus, in India 252 million persons (in 1997)
reside in urban areas. This population is much larger than the total population of any
country except China and USA.

Table 9.4: Rural-Urban Population Distribution

Year Total Population Percentage Growth Rate (percent)

Total Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban

1901 238.4 212.6 25.8 89.2 10.8

1911 252.1 226.2 25.9 89.7 10.3 0.62 0.04
1921 251.3 223.2 28.1 88.8 11.2 0.13 0.82
1931 279.0 245.5 33.5 88.0 12.0 0.95 1.76
1941 318.7 274.5 44.2 86.2 13.8 1.12 2.99
1951 361.1 298.6 62.4 82.7 17.3 0.84 3.45
1961 439.2 360.3 78.9 82.0 18.0 1.88 2.35
1971 548.2 439.1 109.1 80.1 19.9 1.98 3.24
1981 683.3 523.8 159.5 76.7 23.3 1.78 3.87
1991 844.3 627.2 217.1 74.3 25.7 1.82 3.13
-

9.5.1 Urbanisation Process

The increase in urban population can take place in the following ways:
i) natural increase (i. e., birth minus death) of the urban population
ii) migration into urban areas from rural areas
iii) establishment of new urban colonies (industrial townships, for example)
iv) transformation of rural areas into urban areas.
 - --

While the first two reasons add to the existing population in the existing cities and Demographic Features
towns, the latter two reasons add to the number of urban places.

It is seen that percentage of urban areas has increased over time because of the above
reasons. As you see from Table 9.4, in case of India, the growth rate of the urban
population has been higher than that of rural population since 1911. Secondly, the
rate of growth of the urban population has increased over time.
Urbanisation is considered to be good because of higher per capita income, developed
infrastructure, awareness, and overall economic development compared to its rural
counterpart. If urbanisation can be considered as a contributing factor to modernisation
and social change, a higher proportion of urban population should lead to somewhat
greater decline in fertility.

However, there is a growing concentration of urban population in larger towns. The

population in Class I cities has continued to increase at faster rate (47 percent during
1981-91 compared to 35 per cent for all urban areas). This is a matter of concern
because land is a major constraint in mega and metro cities. The scarcity of land
impedes development works. The key concern in urban areas is the growing gap
between demand and supply of basic facilities like houses, roads, electricity, water,
public transport, etc.

Looking back at Table 9.3, you can observe that there is a considerable variations
in the level of urbanisation across states. Among the major states Maharashtra is the
most urbanised state with 38.7 percent followed by 34.4 per cent in Gujarat and 34.2
per cent in Tamil Nadu. Urbanisation is lowest in Himachal Pradesh with 8.7 per
cent population residing in urban areas. A certain degree of historical development
in the pattern of establishment of industries, availability of raw materials, development
of transport systems, etc., have largely contributed to the observed pattern of
urbanisation of different states.

Check Your Progress 1

1) Tick mark ( 4 ) the correct answer in the following statements:
a) The second most populous country in the world is:
i) China, ii) Russia, iii) India, iv) Japan
b) India's population increased by ................ million between 1991 to 2001.
"
i) 210, ii) 181, iii) 112, iv) 161
c) At the turn of the century in 1901, India's urban population comprised
...................................... per cent.
i) 10.8, ii) 13.8, iii) 5.0, iv) 18.0, v) 7.2

9.6 SEX AND AGE COMPOSITION

We need to study the sex and age composition of population because these two are
basic demographic determinants of a nation's manpower supply. They also influence
the pattern of goods and services demanded in the economy. For example, the age
Resource Baw of Indian of school going children is an important factor to plan the additional need of schools,
Economy school buildings, teachers, etc. The sizes of the school going population, school
enrollment, etc., are resultants of particular sex and age structure.

The sax-age structure of a population at any time is the result of past trends in
fertility, mortality and migration.

9.6.1 Age Structure

Populations are generally classified as young or old according to their age structure.
A yowg population is one, which has a relatively higher proportion of children,
adolescents, and young adults than aged persons. In contrast, an old population has
relatively high proportion of middle aged and aged people.

Table 9.5: Age Distribution of Population in India, 1911-1996 (in percent)

Age Groups
Year Sex 0-14 15-44 45-59 60+

1911 M 38.8 46.5 9.9 4.8

F 38.1 46.9 9.4 5.6
1921 M 39.4 45.5 10.1 5.0
F 39.0 46.0 9.5 5.5
193 1 M 40.0 46.2 9.9 3.9
F 40.1 46.4 9.4 4.1
1941 M 38.1 46.1 10.9 4.9
F 38.4 46.1 10.6 4.9
1951 M 37.1 46.3 11.1 5.5
F 37.9 45.7 10.6 5.8
1961 M 40.9 43.0 10.6 5.5
F 41.2 43.3 9.7 5.8
1971 M 41.9 41.5 10.7 5.9
F 41.9 42.4 9.7 6.0
1981 M 39.6 43.2 11.0 6.1
F 39.8 43.5 10.4 6.3
1996 M 37.7 44.8 10.9 6.7
F 37.8 46.2 10.4 6.7

India's population has a young age structure where nearly 38 per cent of the people
are below the age of 15 and only 6 to 7 per cent are 60 years old or older

Table 9.5 gives the age distribution in India during the period 1911-96 for four broad
age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-59 and above 60 years. It shows that the proportion of
children is quite high in India.

The high proportion of children has resulted in an adverse dependency ratio. For
example, the proportion of children (below the age of 15) to working populahn
(between the age 15 and 60) comes to 73 per cent in India in 1981 and 67percent
in the 1996. In developed countries this proportion is generally found between 35 to?
40 per cent. In simple terms a high dependency ratio would imply rglatively higher
number of consumers than workers. A high dependency ratio tends to reduce saving
and investment and inhibits the rate of economic and social development as a Iarge
proportion of scarce resources are diverted towards consumption. Also, an increasingly
large number of persons continue to enter the working ages every year, swelling the
ranks rof the unemployed.
 Demographic Features
9.6.2 Sex-Ratio

Sex ratio is defined as number offemales per 1000 males. Generally it is seen that
the males outnumber females at younger ages because biologically more male babies
are born than female babies (between 103 to 107 males per 100 females) in almost
every society of the world. But female babies have a higher survival rate. Because
of this, females outnumber the males from about the age of 20-25 onwards. But the
overall effect is that the number of males and females should be equal in a population.
In developed countries, the number of females is more than the number of males. In
contrast to this, as Table 9.6 shows, India's sex ratio has been unfavourable to
females. The number of female has gradually decreased over time.

Table 9.6: Sex Ratio in India, 1901 - 1991

- - -

Year 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
,'-x Ratio 972 964 955 950 945 946 941 930 9634 927 933

This picture of sex ratio of India's population is very different from that in the
developed countries and a majority of the developing countries. This is, perhaps,
mainly due to the neglect of female babies and young girls (both in terms of medical
care and nutrition) and has been so even after general improvement in the availability
of medical facilities in both rural and urban areas and improvement in living conditions.

Some of the states, particularly Kerala has more females than males. This is perhaps
due to better socio-economic development of the state and high female literacy.
Kerala has achieved a literacy rate of 91 per cent as per 2001 census. On the other
hand, Bihar, which has registered the highest population growth rate, has literacy as
low as 47 per cent. Recently concerted efforts are being made to provide equal socio-
economic status to women. Empowerment of Women (through reservation in jobs,
legislature, and other facilities) is stated to be one of the primary objectives of the
Ninth Plan.

Check Your Progress 2

1) List out the adverse effects of a high depelldency ratio.

2) i) Why is the sex ratio of a population generally favourable to females?

ii) What is responsible for a high proportion of children below the age of 15?

3) i) When do we call a population "young"?

ii) When do we consider a population "old"?

Resource Base of Indian
Economy 9.7 DYNAMICS OF POPULATION GROWTH b

After examining the population growth pattern, distribution, sex and age composition
and ecoriomic characteristics in the earlier sections, we would like to discuss the
dynamics of population growth through such factors as fertility, mortality and
migration, which affect the size and composition of the population.

9.7.1 Measures of Fertility

Fertility refers to the actual performance of women in bearing children during the
childbearing ages. There are various concepts to measure fertility. We will discuss
some important measures below.

Crude Birth Rate

Conventionally fertility is measured by crude birth rate (CBR) , which is defined as

follows:
Number of live births in a calendar year in a given geographical area
CBR = x 1000
-
Mid year population of that area

In the above definition of CBR, the numerator consists of live births only. This is
because only live births affect the size of population of any given area. There are
always certain proportions of still birth in a population, but they are excluded from
the computation of CBR.

In the denominator, total population is taken at the mid-point of the year because the
population is continuously changing by births, deaths and migration. If we take the
population at the beginning of the year in the denominator it will be a little less than
the actual and the CBR will accordingly be high. In contrast, if we take the population
at the end of the year, it will be a little more and the CBR will be lower than the
actual. Hence, we divide the number of live births by the mid year population which
gives the average picture.

According to the convention, we multiply the ratio by 1,000 because in any population,
the maximum number of births in a year for every 1,000 persons does not exceed 60
and has generally not been less than 10. If we have the rate per 1,000 persons, we
can talk in whole numbers; but if we multiply the figures by 100 instead of 1,000
the rate would become one-tenth and use of decimal point would become necessary.

The above measure of CBR gives a rough idea of fertility rate but it is inappropriate
because its denominator consists of all persons of both sexes, of all ages. In practice,
it is the women in childbearing ages (from 15 years to 45 years) that can produce
children. Moreover, within the reproductive age child bearing capacity varies across
age groups. Thus a more refined measure of fertility is, therefore, age specific fertility
rate, which is explained below.

Age Specific Fertility Rate

The fertility rate computed on the basis of specifications with respect to age is'called
age spec~jicfertility rates (age-SFR). Age-SFR is usually found out for a particular
age group. Suppose, we want to find out the age-SFR for the state of Orissa for the
year 1997 for the age group 19-24. What we do is to divide the total femalepopulation
of Orissa in 1997 into different age groups, e.g., 15-19, 20-24, etc. Next, in the age
 group 19-24, in Orissa, we find out the number of females. Third step is to find out Demographic Feature
the number of live births that has taken place during 1997 in this age group. Finally,
,we divide the total number of births by total female in 19-24 age group and multiply
by 1000. In a similar manner, we can find out age-SFR for any state or for India,
for any age group.

Age-SFRs point out the contributions of each age group to population growth rate
in the country.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR is a more practical measure of population growth. This is obtained by combining

the age-SFRs in different age groups within the reproductive age.

One of the objectives of population policy has been to bring in stability (i.e., neither
increase nor decrease in the size) to the level of population. Such a stability is
possible when Net Reproduction Rate reaches unity (NRR=I). In recent years, this
target has been changed and objective has been defined as a TFR of 2.1 at the state
level. This is the reason why we found it important to include TFR figures for the
states in Table 9.3. From the TFR, it is possible to predict the year when a TFR=2.1
will be achieved for different states. In fact, states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu have
already achieved it, whereas the states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are
quite far from it.

Fertility Trend in India

Table 9.7 below depicts the fertility trend in India over the century. As you see, there
has been a decline in birth rate in India.

Table 9.7: Average Decadal Birth and Death Rates in India, 1901-1991

Decade Birth rate Death Rate

1901-1 1 49.2 42.6

1911-21 48.1 48.6
1921-31 46.2 36.3
1
1931-41 45.2 31.2
1941-51 39.9 27.4
1951-61 41.7 22.8
8
1961-71 41.1 19.2
1971-81 37.2 15.0
198 1-9 1 32.5 11.4

Looking back at Table 9.3 you can ascertain the state-wise variation in birth rates.
It has remained high (well above the national average) in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In contrast, birth rates have been comparatively low
in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
1
i
t1 9.7.2 Reasons for High Birth ate
The high birthrate realised in India arises out of many reasons. The prominent among
these are:
Resource Base of Indian The infant mortality rate in India is quite high (see Table 9.1). As a result, the
Econoq
survival rate of children is comparatively low. Thus parents reproduce more
children with the hope that some of them will survive.
Traditionally parents in India have shown a preference for male child, so that the
son will provide security during old age. Thus parents wait for a male child even
after one or two girl children.
Children provide an economic advantage to their parents. Some studies, however,
contrast this with the view that children provide emotional advantage. It is seen
that children in agricultural and business families help their parents in household
activities and family farm or business at an earlier age thereby generating
additional income.
'
There is a lack of awareness among parents about the clinical facilities available
to control or terminate birth. Some consider it a taboo.
The age of marriage is low in India thereby providing parents a longer reproductive
period.

As discussed in Section 9.3, female literacy has a positive impact on reducing birth
rate. Generally females particularly working in the formal seetor, have to plan the
timing and number of children. The expectation of parents to bring up their children
with good education and other facilities have also helped plan the number of children.

9.7.3 Measures of Mortality

As human beings are mortal, they have to die at some age or other. Death means
permanent extinction of all signs of life from a human body after a live birth has
taken place. The process of death keeps the population of a given area in some sort
of a balance. This happens even when population may be growing in numbers. In
order to measure death rates in a society demographers have come up with several
measures. We discuss some of these measures below.

Crude Death Rate

The crude death rate (CDR), like the CBR, is perhaps the most commonly used
measure of mortality. It is defined as:
Total number of deaths in a calendar year in a given geographicsl area
CDR 2 - x 1000
Mid - year population of that area
The reasons for using mid-year population in the denominator and for multiplying
the ratio by 1000 are the same as explained while defining CBR.
The difference between CBR and CDR is called natural rate of increase of a population.
This tells us the rate at which the population of any particular area is growing in a
natural manner.

Infant mortality Rate

Generally children are put to greater risk of death during the first year of life. In the
absence of proper health facilities such a risk is higher. Thus the percentage death
of children within one year of their life is an important indicator judging the health
care in a society. Infant mortality rate (IMR) is one such measure. It is defined as:

~umbGrof children who die within one year of life

CBR = x 1000
Number of live births
 Demographic Features
The i~nplicationof IMR is as follows: If 1000 children were born on a day, IMR
would indicate the number of children, who are likely to die before completion of
first birth day. It has been a concerted effort of the government to reduce IMR at the
national and regional levels. As you can see from Table 9.3 IMR is quite high in
states of Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But the states of Kerala and Goa
have been quite successful to bring it down to the level of 13.

Expectation of Life
Demographers estimate expectation of life at birth (or Life Expectancy) to understand
the mortality pattern of different countries. It gives an idea of the average life span
of people. It is measured in years. Life expectancy is estimated for male and female
separately and for different states. In fact, expectation of life at birth has an inverse
relationship with death rate. As you can see from Table 9.3, states with higher death
rate have a lower life expectancy and vice versa.
Mortality trend in India
Table 9.7 gives the crude death rate in India during 1901-91. You can see that death
rate in India up to 1921 was very high. This was mainly due to large scale families
and epidemics. Health facilities and access to medicines were also not so good. The
development of a better communication system after 1921 and more organised efforts
to control epidemics like-small pox, cholera and plague, and diseases like malaria,
helped in the decline in CDR. We see an unmistakably declining trend in our CDR
during the past fifty years.

We had mentioned earlier that there is much variation in death rates across states.
If you look back at Table 9.3, you can point out that death rate is much higher, above
the national average, in ~ i h a dMadhya
, Pradesh, Orissa and Uttar ~radeshcompared
to death rate in Kerala.

9.7.4 Migration

Migration can be ether from one country to another (international migration) or from
one statehegion to another (internal migration). Migration can be ascertained through
change in residence. Migration affects certain population characteristics such as sex
composition, age structure and occupational structure. As migration is a continuous
process like events of birth and death, it is necessary to record all permanent or semi-
permanent changes in residence.

In the absenee of continuous recording of the details of migration. estimates of in and

out migration are obtained by asking questions in a population census about 'place
of birth' and 'place of last residence' or both. However, this definition of migration
comprises a substantial portion of female migration due to marriage. There are three
other factors, namely, employment, income and rapidpopulation growth that determine
the extent and pattern of migration flows. Migrants move out of areas where
employment opportunities are stagnant, where income is low and where rate of
population growth is very high. Conversely, they are attracted to areas of new industrial
development and higher per capita income.

The available data from censuses show that both internal and international migration
has been negligible in India. However,,this may not be so in the future if there is
further widening of disparity between states in terms of economic growth and
employment opportunities. Because of the low income. poor employment opportunities
.+ and low literacy, there may be an increasing migratio~~
from rural to urban areas and
Resource Base of Indian from poorer states to richer states, particularly of unskilled labour. You might have
Economy
read newspaper reports on migration of agricultural labourers from poorer states to
richer states. In the short run, such migration may assist the migrants in overcoming
their economic problems. But in the long run, the migrant workers may face problems
in securing shelter, education and health care.

9.8 ADVERSE EFFECTS OF HIGH POPULATION

GROWTH RATE
As mentioned in the beginning (Sub-section 9.3.1), a high growth rate in population
has an adverse effect on economic development.

During the first 40 years of planning (1950-90) growth rate in GDP was around
4.0percent per annum. However, the population growth rate was about 2 percent
per annum. The outcome of such a feature is that the per capita GDP increased
at a rate of 2.0 percent per annum only. Had population growth rate been lower,
per capita income would have increased at a higher rate.
The food production in lndia has gone up from 50.8 million tonnes in 1950-51
to 198 million tonnes in 1996-97, nearly 4 times. However, the per capita
availability of food grains has increased only by 46percent, from 140 kilogram
in 1950-51 to 205 kilogram, during the same period.
There is heavy pressure on existing infrastructure like health, education, electricity,
water and housing. I n order to maintain these facilities at the existing level, the
government has to incur huge investments. Had population growth rate been
lower, this expenditure could have been diverted towards directly productive
activities.

Check Your Progress 3

1) Why is the ratio in the definition of CBR or CDR multiplied by 1000?

2) Why do demographers consider TFR as a better measure of fertility than CBR?

3) Name two states in India, which have experienced low fertility rate, and two
states, which have experienced high fertility rate.

9.9 INDIA'S POPULATION POLICY

While discussing the influence of high growth rate of population on economic

development (Section 9.3) we stressed the need for a population policy to bring
down birth rate. Soon aftcr Independence, the Government of India appointed the
Planning Commission to fc,mulate a plan for most effective and balanced utilisation
 -
of natural resources for economic developmnt. While formulating the First Five Demographic Features
Year Plan, the Planning Commission recognised the need of a population policy
towards restraining population growth rate in relation to economic development. The
objective of such a policy was ta raise the living standards of people and improvement
in health, partioularly of mothers and children. In that plan, a provision of Rs.65 lakh
was made for the family planning programmes and to discover effective techniques
of family limitation and to suggest methods by which knowledge of the techniques
could be widely disseminated. Thus, India became the first country in the world to
formulate and implement the National Family Planning Programme in 1952.

9.9.1 Clinical Approach

During the first four Five Year Plans, the approach to family planning was mostly
clinic-based. There was sharp shortage of infrastructure and manpower for improving
health and family welfare services. The government put emphasis on creation of
necessary infrastructure for provision of health care.

By the year 1975, the Government recognised that in order to promote family planning
at a faster pace, it would be necessary to involve itself more directly. A comprehensive
"National Population Policy" was, therefore, declared in 1976. This policy statement
introduced a series of fundamental measures so as to achieve the planned target of
reducing the birth rate from an estimated 35 per thousand in the beginning of the
Fifth Plan to 25 per thousand at the end of the Sixth Plan. These measures included
i) setting aside 8 per cent of central assistance to state plans specifically against
performance in family planning, ii) freezing of the representation in the central and
state legislatures on the basis of the 1971 census population for the next 25 years,
iii) raising the age at marriage to 18 years for girls and 21 years for boys, iv) higher
grades monetary compensation against sterilisation, v) higher priority for girls'
education upto the middle level and vi) child nutrition.

A population policy consists of both the formulation and articulation of population

objective that maximise the public welfare and levels of living. This involves the
commitment and manipulation of resources in pursuit of these population objectives.
One may also say that population policies are measures and programmes designed
to contribute to the achievement of economic, social, demographic, political and
other collective goals. This is possible through affecting critical demographic variables,
namely, the size and growth of population, its geographic distribution (national or
international) and its demographic characteristics. It can be easily seen that the
National Population Policy Statement of 1976 covered these aspects quite
comprehensively.

Special measures were adopted by several states to make this programme a success
by introducing incentives and disincentives to encourage the people and at least the
state and central government employees to go in for sterilisation. There was, however,
severe criticism of the compulsion aspect in the family planning programme during
1976, and the same went into disrepute, and its achievement fell down very sharply
during 1977 and 1979.

The country was not prepared for harshness and compulsion. There was a change in
political power at the Centre and in several states in 1977. While the new Government
stressed the importance of limiting population growth for the country, it emphasised
the voluntary nature of the family planning programme.
.ee Base of 1 9.9.2 Family Welfare Approach
my .
Since 1977, the earlier approach of family planning has been geared towards
development based family welfare approach. In Sub-section 9.3.1 we have discussed
the two-way relationship between economic development and population growth
rate. To repeat, economic development (mainly through female literacy, low infant
mortality, maternal health and awareness) helps in reducing birth rate. Let us look
into the routes through which female literacy reduces birth rate. It is generally seen
that literate women tend to marry later than illiterate women do. Attendance at
school and colleges thus increases age of marriage. It is projected further that increase
in age of marriage has an inverse relationship with number of children. Secondly,
literate women are more likely to enroll their children in schools. You may have
observed that in many families, children do not go to school or drop out of school
and start earning for the family (the case of child labour). School attendance tends
to reduce labour value of children. Consequently, there is a reduction in the motivation
to have more children. Thirdly, literate women are more aware of health and hygiene.
So, more of their children survive, thus reducing the number of births to attain a
couple's desired family size. They are also more aware of family planning and
therefore, are more likely to use such devices. Finally, educated women are likely to
have other interests apart from family and child rearing (such as a job). These
interests compete with children for time and attention. Hence, this also tends to have
a depressing effect on number of children.

The government has put emphasis on these factors apart from adoption of
contraceptives. Some of the premises on which the family welfare programme is
based are as follows:
i) Acceptance of family welfare is voluntary without involving any coercion.
ii) The role of the government is supposed to be qreation of a favourable environment
for people to adopt small family norm. This is done by spreading awareness,
information and education of people. The government has put emphasis on easy
and convenient availability of family planning aids and welfare services, like
infrastructure, essential drugs, vaccines and contraceptives. The government has
been giving incentives to people for adopting family planning.
iii) The family welfare programme has integrated maternal and child health (MCII)
services. The MCH is being implemented through countrywide network of primary
health centres and supporting institutions.

9.9.3 National Population Policy, 2000

Recently the government has announced National Population Policy, 2000 which
emphasises on adequate provision of contraception facilities, health care infrastructure,
health personnel and integrated service delivery. While the long-tem objective of the
policy is to stabilise population of the country by the year 2045, the medium-term
objective is to bring down total fertility rate (TFR) to replacement level by 2001.

In order to achieve these objectives it, is planned to encourage small family norm,
particularly, two children per couple. It adopts a policy of rewarding Panchayats and
Zila Parishads for such encouragements. On the other hand, it proposes strong action
against child marriage. A National Co~nmissionon Population is to be set up with
the Prime Minister as its Chairperson.

The National Population Policy 2000 extends the moderate stand taken earlier by the
govarclment. It does not spell out steps to .be taken against individuals or non-
fulfilment of policy guidelines.
 9.9.4 Assessment of Population Policy Demogrrpbk Features

In spite of the massive efforts by the government, the performance of the family
welfare programme has not been satisfactory. Right from the First Five Year Plan
The set goals have not been realised in time. This has resulted in the re-setting of
the goals again and again. For example, let us consider the targets set in Plan
documents regarding crude birth rate (CBR). In 1962 the target was to achieve a
CBR of 25 by the year 1973. By the year 1968 it was further revised to achieving
a CBR of 23 by 1978-79. However, the actual CBR in 1973 was 34.6. In 1974
(beginning of Fifih Plan) the planners moderated the target to achieving a CBR of
30 by the year 1979 and 25 by the year 1983-84. However, the CBR in 1985 was
32.9, much higher than the target. In 1998, the target set by the government is to
bring down the TFR to 2.1 by the year 2026 from the present level of 3.60.
There are quite a few reasons for the poor performance of family welfare programme.
The programme has remained a government programme, the community's
involvement and participation being marginal.
Regional variations and diversities are not generally taken into consideration.
Health infrastructure is weak in many states, which has contributed towards poor
implementation of the programme.
There is a shortage of contraceptive devices in the country, which has contributed
to high birth rate. About 20percent of the population increase is due to unwanted
births in the country. Many parents do not want a child, but births take place
because of lack of awareness or unavailability of contraceptive measures.
The monitoring mechanism under the progmmme has been reduced to a rcrutine
target reporting by officials. As a result, identitjling the loopholes in the programme
and rectifying it, has not been possible.
I
The Ninth Plan has addressed itself to these programmes. With death rate having

i reached a plateau, an accelerated decline in birth rate can present a feasible solution
to the growing burden of increasing numbers.

Check Your Progress 4

1) Why is India known to be the first country in the world to have "population
growth control" programme?

2) List out the major aspects of the "National Population Policy" statement of
1976. 1

9.10 LET US SUM UP

In this unit we started with a discussion of the inter-relationship of population size
and growth and economic development, and indicated as tc when faster population
growth may help economic development and when it may impede the same. Afier
Resource Base o f Indian indicating that India's current population size and growth rate impede economic
Economy development in the country, the role of urbanisation, particularly its growing pace,
in economic development, was emphasised.

After a period of fluctuating growth of India's population upto 192 1, the same began
to increase gradually after 1921. The period since Independence has witnessed a v e b
high population growth rate. Its impact is clearly visible in the young age structure
of the country's population with nearly 40percent population below 15 years. India's
urban population has also expanded at a fast pace during the past four decades. An
important aspect of Indian urbanisation is the concentration of population' in a few
metropolitan and other cities. In addition, larger cities are growing at a higher rate
than smaller towns.

The dynamics of population growth was discussed under the subheadings of fertility,
mortality and migration that directly affect the size and growth rate of any population.
The various measures of fertility and mortality were explained and the trend over
time was discussed. Regional variations in the crude birth rate and crude death rate
were also presented.

India was the first country in the world to formulate and implement the population
policy in 1952. However, approach, adopted in this policy was clinic based. The
population policy 1976 took series of measures to promote family planning at faster
rate. These include setting aside 8 per cent of central assistance to states for family
planning, raising the marriage age to 18 years for girls and 2 1 years for boys, higher
priority for girls education etc. The performance of these measures has not been upto
the mark.

9.11 KEY WORDS

Crude Birth Rate: It relates the total number of live births in a year in a given
geographical area to the mid-year population of that year and area.
Crude Death Rate: It relates the total number of deaths in a calendar year in a given
geographical area to the.mid-year population of that year and area.
Fertility: It refers to the actual performance of women in bearing children during
their childbearing ages. Conventionally, fertility is measured by crude birth rate.
However, general fertility rate is a better index of measuring fertility.
General Fertility Rate: This takes into account the size of female population in the
childbearing age, which effectively determines the fertility of a population ofa given
geographical area in a year.
Infant Mortality Rate: The number of deaths in the age group 0-1 during a calendar
year per 1000 live births during the same calendar year within a geographical area.
Law of Diminishing Returns: Level of other inputs remaining constant, if level of
an input is increased, a stqge may arise when the marginal product of that input will
decline. As a result, total output may decline after a stage.
Migration: It refers to the mobility of individual(s) from one geographical area to
another. It may be in the form of, say, rural-urban migration when an individual
moves from a rural to an urban area. It may also be in the form of intra-rural
migration when a person moves from one village to another. If an individual migrates
from, say, Bangladesh to India, it is international migration.
Old Population: A population that has a relatively high proportion of middle aged
and aged people. Ours is not an old population as only 6 per cent of India's population
is 60 years of age or higher.
 Sex Ratio: It refers to the number of females per thousand males. In India, it was Demographic Features
929 in 1991. In most developed countries, however, sex ratio exceeds 1000, as
female mortality rate is lower in developed countries compared to that in developing
countries like India.
Urban Areas: According to the 1991 census, urban area is defined as, i) all places
with a municipality, corporation, cantonment board or notified town area committees,
etc.; and ii) all other places which satisfy the following criteria:
i) a minimum population of 5,000;
ii) at least 75 per cent of the male working population engaged in non-agricultural
pursuits; and
iii) a density of population of at least 400 persons per sq. km.

Vicious Circle of Poverty: In developing countries, the level of saving is low. As

a result investment is low. Low investment gives rise to low level of capital formation.
Low rate of capital per labour results in low output. Low output, in turn, gives rise
to low saving.

Young Population: A population that has a relatively high proportion of children,

adolescents and young adults. Ours is a young population as 40 per cent of our
population is less than 15 years of age.

9.12 SOME USEFUL BOOKS

Cassen, R. H., (1978), India: Population, Economy, Society, Chapter 4, The
Macmillan Co. of India Ltd. Delhi.
Datt, R. and KPM Sundharam, (2001), Indian Economy, (Chapter 4) S. Chand &
Co. New Delhi
Dhingra, 1.C (200 1) The Indian Economy: Environment and Policy, (Chapter 5),
Sultan Chand & Sons, New Delhi.
Government of India, (1998), Ninth Five Year Plan 1997-2002, Planning
Commission, New Delhi.

9.13 ANSWERSIHINTS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

f EXERCISES
Check Your Progress 1
1) a) iii b) ii c) i
Check Your Progress 2
1) A higher dependency ratio implies higher number of consumers than workers.
This has the adverse effect of reducing the rate of savings and investment rates.
Consequently, the rate of economic growth slows down.
2) i) Sex ratio is favourable to females as the female babies have a better survival
rate.
ii) A high growth rate of population is responsible for a high proportion of
children in the society.
3) i) A population is considered young if it has a high proportion of children and
adolescents.
ii) A population is considered old if it has a high proportion of middle aged and
aged.
Resource Base of Indian
Check Your Progress -
J
Economy
I) In order to avoid decimal numbers, the ratio in CBR or CDR is multiplied by
1000.

2) TFR takes into account age specific variations in birth rate. Also it considers
only female population in the reproductive age.
3) Low fertility: Kerala and Goa.
High fertility: Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
Check Your Progress 4

1) India was the first country in the world to formulate and implement a population
policy in 1952.
2) The National Population Policy of 1976 suggested a number of fundamental
measures to reduce birth rate. These measures included funding of state plans on
the basis of performance in family planning, freezing the size of legislative
'
representatives on the basis of 1971 census, raising the age of marriage, and
incentives for female education.