Assignment 02-Probability Theory Class 0102

ASSIGNMENT 02
Before Mon, 11 December 2023 at 08.00 AM in EMAS

Assignment 3
1. The following gambling game, known as the wheel of fortune (or
chuck-a-luck), is quite popular at many carnivals and gambling
casinos: A player bets on one of the numbers 1 through 6. Three dice
are then rolled, and if the number bet by the player appears i times,
i=1, 2, 3, then the player wins i units; if the number bet by the player
does not appear on any of the dice, then the player loses 1 unit. Is
this game fair to the player? (Actually, the game is played by spinning
a wheel that comes to rest on a slot labeled by three of the numbers
1 through 6, but this variant is mathematically equivalent to the dice
version)
Solution no.1
If we assume that the dice are fair and act independently of one another, then the
number of times
1
that the number bet appears is a binomial random variable with
parameter (3, ). Hence, letting X denote the player’s winning in the game, we have
6
3 1 0 5 3 125
P(X=0) = 0 6 6
=
216
3 1 1 5 2 75
P(X=1) = 1 6 6
=
216
3 1 2 5 1 15
P(X=2) = 2 6 6
=
216
3 1 3 5 0 1
P(X=3) = 3 6 6
=
216
In order to determine whether or not this is a fair game for the player, let us
calculate E(X). From the preceding probabilities, we obtain
75+30+3−125 −17
𝐸 𝑋 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = ;
216 216
Hence, in the long run the player will lose 17 units every 216 games he plays.
Assignment 3
2. Suppose that earthquakes occur in the western portion of the United
States in accordance with assumptions 1, 2, and 3, with λ=2 and
with 1 week as the unit of time. (That is, earthquakes occur in
accordance with the three assumptions at a rate of 2 per week.)
(a) Find the probability that at least 3 earthquakes occur during the
next 2 weeks.
(b) Find the probability distribution of the time, starting from now,
until the next earthquake
Solution no.2
a. P(N(2)≥ 3) = 1 − 𝑃 {𝑁 2 = 0} 2
− 𝑃{𝑁 2 = 1} − 𝑃{𝑁 2 = 2}
−4 4
= 1 - 𝑒 - 4 𝑒 - 𝑒 −4
−4
2
= 1 – 13 𝑒 −4 .
b. Let X denote the amount of time (in weeks) until the next
earthquake. Because X will be greater than t if and only if no events
occur within the next t units of time, we have
P(X>t) = P (N(t)=0) = 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
So the probability distribution function of F of the random variable X is
given by
F(t) = P(X≤ t)= 1 – P (X>t) = 1 - 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 = 1 - 𝑒 −2𝑡
Assignment 3
3. Nur meneliti hasil tangkapan ikan nelayan di pesisir Jimbaran. Hasil
penelitian menunjukkan bahwa berat per ekor ikan hasil tangkapan
nelayan berdistribusi uniform antara 100gr/ekor sampai 115gr/ekor.
• Tentukan besarnya rata-rata dan variansi berat hasil tangkapan ikan
• Suatu hari Nur mendatangai 12 nelayan dan mengambil masing-
masing seekor ikan dari tiap nelayan. Tentukan peluang rata-rata ikan
yang diambil Nur kurang dari 104 gr.
• Di hari yang berbeda, Nur mendatangi 36 nelayan dan mengambil
masing-masing seekor ikan dari tiap nelayan. Tentukan peluang berat
total ikan yang diambil Nur lebih dari 3900gr.
Solution no. 3
Solution no. 3 CONT’
Assignment 3
4. Joe is waiting in continuous time for a book called The Winds of Winter to
be released. Suppose that the waiting time T until news of the book's
release is posted, measured in years relative to some starting point, has
an Exponential distribution with 𝜆 = 1/5.
Joe is not so obsessive as to check multiple times a day; instead, he

checks the website once at the end of each day. Therefore, he observes
the day on which the news was posted, rather than the exact time T . Let
X be this measurement, where X = 0 means that the news was posted
within the first day (after the starting point), X = 1 means it was posted
on the second day, etc. (assume that there are 365 days in a year). Find
the PMF of X. Is this a named distribution that we have studied?
Solution no.4
The event X = k is the same as the event k ≤ 365T < k + 1,
X = [365T], where [t] is the floor of t (greatest integer less than or equal to
t). The CFD of T is 𝐹𝑇 (t) = 1 - 𝑒 −𝑡/5 for t > 0 (and 0 for t ≤ 0). So.
𝑘 𝑘+1 𝑘+1 𝑘
P(X=k) = P ( ≤𝑇< ) = 𝐹𝑇 - 𝐹𝑇 = 𝑒 −𝑘/1825 -𝑒 −(𝑘+1)/1825
365 365 365 365
−1/1825 𝑘
This factor as 𝑒 (1-𝑒 −1/1825 ), which shows that X ~Geom (1-
𝑒 −1/1825 )
Assignment 3
5. An expert witness in a paternity suit testifies that the length (in days)
of human gestation is approximately normally distributed with
parameters μ=270 and σ2= 100. The defendant in the suit is able to
prove that he was out of the country during a period that began 290
days before the birth of the child and ended 240 days before the
birth. If the defendant was, in fact, the father of the child, what is the
probability that the mother could have had the very long or very
short gestation indicated by the testimony?
Solution no. 5
P(X>290 or X<240) = P(X>290)+P(X<240)
𝑋−270 𝑋−270
= P >2 +P < −3
10 10
= 1 – P(Z<2) + (Z<3)
= 0.0241
Assignment 3
6. Misalkan
X dan Y adalah dua peubah acak yang
mempunyai fungsi densitas gabungan
24𝑦 1 − 𝑥 − 𝑦 ; 𝑥 > 0, 𝑦 > 0, 𝑥 + 𝑦 < 1
𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 = ቊ
0 ; 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑦𝑎
a.Carilah pdf marginal dari X dan Y?
b.Carilah 𝑃 𝑋 < 𝑌 < 2𝑋 ?
Solution no. 6
Central Limit Theorm
In a recent study reported Oct. 29, 2012 on the Flurry Blog, the mean age of
tablet users is 34 years. Suppose the standard deviation is 15 years. Take a
sample of size 𝑛 = 100
1.What are the mean and standard deviation for the sample mean ages of
tablet users?
2.What does the distribution look like?
3.Find the probability that the sample mean age is more than 30 years (the
reported mean age of tablet users in this particular study).
4.Find the 95 percentile for the sample mean age (to one decimal place).
th
Solution
Joint Distribution
Solution
Solution CONT’
Joint Distribution Discreate
Consider again the probability experiment, where we toss a fair coin three times
and record the sequence of heads (h) and tails (t). Again, we let random variable X denote the
number of heads obtained. We also let random variable Y denote the winnings earned in a
single play of a game with the following rules,
based on the outcomes of the probability experiment (this is the same as Example 3.6.2):
•player wins $1 if first h occurs on the first toss
•player wins $2 if first h occurs on the second toss
•player wins $3 if first h occurs on the third toss
•player loses $1 if no h occur
Note that the possible values of X are X = 0,1,2,3 and the possible values of Y are Y=-
1,1,2,3. We represent the joint pmf using a table
Joint Distribution Discreate CONT’
Marginal distribution
Joint cdf of X and Y

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ASSIGNMENT 02

Before Mon, 11 December 2023 at 08.00 AM in EMAS

Joe is not so obsessive as to check multiple times a day; instead, he

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