India S Foreign Trade
India S Foreign Trade
India S Foreign Trade
From A. K. Sengupta
Reading Materials
The world changed, and India changed even more: from an aid dependent country, notable
chiefly for its past glory and current poverty, to an economic powerhouse widely expected to
grow into not just one of the largest but also the most dynamic economies of the world.
For more than four decades since Independence, India had adopted a highly protected,
regulated, restricted, and controlled policy towards an inward market approach and did not
seem to have a policy of globalization as such. There have been policy attempts from time to
time which either directly or indirectly had implications for globalization.
The year 1990-91 marked the end of the most protected trade regime phase in India
and the country ushered into an era of globalisation. The continued deterioration in
the economy due to the political instability, turmoil in Punjab, Kashmir, Assam and
the rest of north east, and overspending by the central and state governments in an
attempt to meet the new exigencies during 1980s had a worsening impact on fiscal
sector and the external sector. In the fiscal sector, the current account deficit went
up from 0.2 per cent of the GDP during 1974-79 to 1.6 per cent in 1980-85 and
further to 2.3 percent during 1989-90. The negative trends in the external sector
accentuated by the fall of the Soviet Union and the sharp rise in oil prices led to drop
in India’s exports to Eastern Europe from 20 per cent of total in 1989 to 11 per cent
by 1991-92. Further the attack on Kuwait by Iraq disrupted the long-term supply
contracts of oil to India from Iraq and led to a sharp rise in oil import bill for over two
years. The net effect of these developments on India was that the import cover of
the foreign exchange reserves came down from around five months in the mid-
eighties to just 1.8 months by 1989-90. Short-term debt, which was 6.1 per cent of
the total debt in March 1989, was pushed up to 9.9 per cent of the total debt in
March 1990, and further to 10.2 per cent by March 1991. The ratio of short-term
debt to total foreign exchange reserves – excluding gold and SDR – was 90 per cent
in March 1989. By March 1990 it was 2.2 times the reserves, and by March 1991 it
went up to 3.8 times the foreign currency reserves.
Some of the key indicators of the reforms introduced by the Government directed towards
globalization include:
• The launch of the New Industrial Policy in July 1991 which led to dereservation of
the sectors kept in the domain of public sector in favour of private both domestic and
foreign players. The effort towards opening of the economy can be gauged from the
fact that out of the 17 sectors reserved for the public enterprises as many as 15
sectors have been opened for private participation. The two sectors viz. Atomic
Energy and Railways have been kept reserved for the public sector because of
strategic importance. Even within the railways – the peripheral services like catering,
maintenance of platforms, palace on wheels, etc have been opened up.
• To improve the efficiency and cut down the public expenditure investment norms
have been liberalized to attract inflow of capital from domestic and foreign
enterprises including institutional investment in various sectors like banking,
insurance, transport, real estate, retailing etc. The inflow of private capital has not
only improved the competitiveness of the Indian manufacturing sector but has
generated large employment opportunities leading to rise in the standard of living of
the people.
• The opening of the telecom-IT sector has resulted into India’s presence in the global
marketplace and has been rated among the world’s best. It is wrong to say that the
fortune is confined to information technology and BPO, the growing increase in
India’s exports even without the help of a weak currency has led India to emerge as a
powerful economy in the Asian region.
The reforms thus introduced in the policy frames have accelerated the growth rate
from 5.7% in the eighties to what could well be a new trend growth rate of 7% now.
The quality of this growth has improved remarkably: whether measured in terms of
the units of capital required to produce a unit of output, foreign borrowings needed or
the quality of the output, an indication of which is how much of it can be sold abroad.
India’s share in world exports slipped from around 2 per cent in 1950 to the lowest
ever level of 0.4 per cent in 1992-93. The economic and trade reforms introduced in
1991 have given a boost to raise its share to around 0.8 per cent in 2004-05. The
Government is committed to double its share by the end of 2008-09. To achieve the
above goal, the government had identified a 25 by 220 country-commodity matrix in
its Medium Term Export Strategy 2002-07. The 220 items were classified into seven
main categories that include engineering (including instruments and items of
repairs), textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals & allied products, agriculture & allied
products (including marine & plantations), leather & footwear, and other items.
Strategies suggested in the Medium Term Export Plan include (a) product-market
penetration strategy for existing products (b) market diversification strategy for
existing products (c) product diversification strategy for existing markets, and (d)
product-market diversification for new products and new markets. Besides, having
realized the near market saturation reached in USA, Western Europe, and Japan,
the focus has been laid on enhancing exports in the emerging markets of Latin
America, Africa, and CIS. It is in this context that new initiatives have been taken to
launch “Focus Africa” and “Focus CIS” in 2002 and 2003 respectively after
experiencing an overwhelming success from “Focus LAC” launched in 1998.
A STRATEGIC APPROACH
To diversify and expand the market and product base for exports various strategies
have been implemented since 1992 – prominent among these are:
For giving a fillip to the trade growth and fostering economic cooperation a
movement towards free trade/regional trading arrangements has been initiated by
signing of bilateral and economic cooperation agreements with various countries.
Some of the agreements include:
India’s export performance in the post-liberalisation period i.e. 1991-2005 has been
much better than the pre-reform period. From a negative growth of 0.55 per cent
during 1991-92, the value of exports in dollar terms witnessed a growth rate of 25.98
per cent in 2004-05. In terms of openness of Indian economy, that is trade
measured as percentage of value of GDP, the degree of openness almost doubled
from a level of 13 per cent in 1990-91 to 22 per cent in 2002-03.
Exports from India registered a continuous increase from a modest 2.79 per cent
growth in 1992-93 to 20.91 per cent in 1995-96. A declining trend in the export
growth started in 1996-97 and witnessed a negative growth of 5.14 per cent in 1998-
99. The negative growth in exports could mainly be attributed to the recession in
world economy caused by East Asian crisis. Exports, however, picked up in 1999-
2000 and witnessed a growth of 19.84 per cent in 2000-01 at USD 44 billion from
USD 37 billion in previous year. The volume of exports has touched the level of USD
80 billion in 2004-05 from USD 18 billion in 1990-91 – an increase of 344.44 per
cent. India’s share in global exports has also risen from the lowest level of 0.4 per
cent in 1992-93 to around 0.8 per cent in 2004-05.
A notable feature in India’s export performance is that it had achieved 18 per cent
growth at a time when the global economy was struggling to revive and even many
of the developed countries found it difficult to achieve growth in their export.
Besides, as per the WTO Report 2002, the country achieved 15 per cent growth,
next only to China (22 per cent), among the 30 leading exporters in world
merchandise trade during 2002. Export performance of many countries during this
period has either been negative or in single digit, for example, USA (-5 Per cent),
(Canada (-3 per cent), Japan (3 per cent), UK (1 per cent), Hong Kong (5 per cent),
Korea (8 per cent), Singapore (3 per cent), Thailand (5 per cent), and Indonesia (0
per cent).
Growing integration of India’s financial sector with that of the rest of the world, along
with growing integration of the economy as a whole, has brought down interest rates
and input prices. Venture funds, private equity and a booming stock market have
enabled enterprise to flourish, overcoming earlier limitations of having to accumulate
initial capital either through inheritance or loot. The foreign exchange reserves of the
country are now at a very comfortable level at USD 145 billion against a mere USD
one billion in 1990.
SECTORAL PERFORMANCE DURING APRIL-MARCH, 2004-05
The following trends can be observed from the latest available provisional
disaggregated data from DGCI&S for April-March, 2004-05.
EXPORTS
(i) High to Moderate growth (40% and above) was witnessed in the export of Iron
Ore (134%), Petroleum Crude & Products (90%), Plastic & Linoleum Products (68%),
Primary & Semi-finished Iron & Steel (51%) and Transport Equipments (45%).
(ii) Negative to Low growth (less than 15%) was observed in case of Cotton yarn,
fabrics, madeups etc.(-6%), RMG Cotton including accessories (-5%), Marine products
(-5%) Electronic goods(1.6%), Man made yarn, fabrics, madeups (6%) and Drugs,
pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals(12%),
IMPORTS
(i) High to Moderate growth (40% and above) was witnessed in the import of Coal,
Coke & Briquettes etc. (99%), Metaliferous & Metal Scrap (83%), Iron & Steel (72%),
Gold (57%), Petroleum: Crude & Products (45%).
(ii) Negative to Low growth (less than 15%) was observed for Transport Equipments
(-25%) and Vegetable Oils Fixed-edible (-6%).
Among the top 15 countries for exports, Singapore recorded the highest growth (79%)
followed by China (55%), UAE (38%), Belgium (35%) and France (26%). Bangladesh
PR recorded negative growth rate. Among the top 15 countries for imports the
highest growth was recorded by UAE (122%) followed by Switzerland (76%), China
(66%), Australia (34%) and Germany (33%).
CONCLUSION
The implementation of various economic and trade reforms in recent years have led
to sufficient reserves of foreign exchange (approx. USD 145 billion), containment of
the inflation rate at single digit level, appreciation of Indian rupee, strong growth in
manufacturing activity, surge in FDI inflow, etc. All these factors have resulted in the
continuous growth in India’s export performance over the last decade. The 25 per
cent growth in exports witnessed during 2004-05 over the previous year coupled with
firming up of domestic manufacturing activity and India’s growing export
competitiveness give clear indications that the target set by the Department of
Commerce at USD 150 billion by 2009-10, and USD 300 billion 2015 can be
achieved without any difficulty.
References
(Rs.Crores)
COMMODITIES APRIL-MARCH APRIL-MARCH Growth Weight
2003-2004 2004-2005 (%) (%)
XVI. PETROLEUM
PRODUCTS 16397.44 30518.10 86.12 8.57
XVII. UNCLASSIFIED
EXPORTS 8645.46 9388.87 8.60 2.64
GRAND TOTAL 293366.75 356068.88 21.37 100.00
Us Dollar Exchange Rate 45.9513 44.9315
(Rs. Crores)
APRIL- APRIL-
COMMODITIES MARCH MARCH Growth Weight
2003-2004 2004-2005 (%) (%)
_________ _________ __________ _
Rs. Crore