South Africa’s Energy

Landscape –
Opportunities and
Economic Benefit of
Renewable Energy
Abstract

Currently power generation is a major point of concern in South Africa. These power outage

(load shedding) events are putting undue pressure on the general population, businesses and the

economy at large. Being a South African citizen experiencing the same frustration of load

shedding with the rest of the country as well as on the other hand being a part of the power

generation industry, this study is crucial to gain and provide perspective of the challenges and

opportunities available to the country. The investment opportunities are vast and the market for

clean, reliable, and sustainable energy is ripe. This will serve as a breeding ground of

innovation. The move to renewable energy sources is critical for future environmental and

economic sustainability. The South African government is set to enable a just renewable energy

transition and has already established a multitude of policy, legislative, energy plan changes,

started programmes to move from broader utility scaled renewable energy and secured various

funding pledges and partnerships. This, however comes with some barriers that have some

potential of slowing down the momentum of the renewable energy transition. These barriers

are far from impossible to resolve and with due diligence and the correct attention these risks

can be mitigated and managed.

Key Words: Load Shedding; Energy; Just Energy Transition; Landscape; Energy Mix;

Economy; South Africa; Investment; Opportunities; and, Barriers

1
Table of Contents

Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 1

1. Introduction of the Study .................................................................................................... 4

2. Motivation for Study ........................................................................................................... 4

3. Objective(s) of the Study .................................................................................................... 4

4. Study Research Methodology ............................................................................................. 5

5. Background ......................................................................................................................... 5

6. Research Questions ............................................................................................................. 5

7. Literature Review................................................................................................................ 6

7.1. What is the current Energy landscape and the negative effects on South Africa’s

economy? ............................................................................................................................... 6

7.2. What are the opportunities and economic benefits of South Africa moving to

renewable energy? .................................................................................................................. 8

7.3. What is required from a political and policy point of view? ..................................... 10

7.4. What are the barriers that exist for South Africa? ..................................................... 13

8. Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 15

9. Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 17

10. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 17

11. References ..................................................................................................................... 18

2
List of Figures

Figure 1: Structure of the electricity sector in South Africa (South African-German Energy

Partnership, 2021). ..................................................................................................................... 7

Figure 2: Projected electricity sources by 2030 (South African-German Energy Partnership,

2021)........................................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 3: Energy Policy in South Africa (South African-German Energy Partnership, 2021) 11

Figure 4: Key Policy Milestones for South Africa (The Presidency, Rebublic of South Africa,

2022)......................................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 5: The Share of Renewables in Electricity Production 1990 -2021 (Enerdata

intelligence + consulting, 2022) ............................................................................................... 12

List of Tables

Table 1: Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Project(s) Deployment (McLennan, 2021). 9

3
 1. Introduction of the Study

Currently power generation is a major point of concern in South Africa. The country currently

suffers from rolling scheduled blackouts, deemed “load shedding”, with very little sign of

improvement in due an aging fleet of energy sources which struggle to provide consistent

supply of electrical power. These load shedding events are putting undue pressure on the

general population, businesses and the economy at large. This research paper endeavours to

explore the current energy landscape in South Africa, the possible opportunities available, the

hurdles that need to be overcome and support required.

2. Motivation for Study

Being a South African citizen experiencing the same frustration of load shedding with the rest

of the country as well as on the other hand being a part of the power generation industry, this

study crucial to gain and provide perspective of the challenges and opportunities available to

the country. Having a background in the fossil fuel power industry having a deep understanding

on both the positive and negative aspects of the use of fossil fuels, I aim to explore the vast

opportunities and economic benefits of the country starting its transition to renewable energy

sources.

3. Objective(s) of the Study

i. To explore and understand how current energy mix affects the economy;

ii. To understand how the introduction of renewables into the energy mix will assist to

grow the economy; and,

iii. To identify and understand the challenges and barriers in introducing renewables in

South Africa.

4
 4. Study Research Methodology

The research methodology adopted was to conduct literature review and utilise secondary data

for this research project. No empirical research has been conducted and therefore no surveys,

interviews and data analyses were conducted.

5. Background

South Africa has to transition to renewable energy sources not only to lower the reliance on

coal and other fossil fuels to safeguard the environment, but also for an immediate threat of

poor energy supply which is having a detrimental effect on the economy. The investment

opportunities are vast and the market for clean, reliable and sustainable energy is ripe. This will

serve as a breeding ground of innovation. The move to renewable energy sources is critical for

future environmental and economic sustainability this view is supported by our president Cyril

Ramaphosa who stated:

“The plan is clear that there is no trade-off between tackling climate change and supporting

economic growth. Instead, a just energy transition can attract investment, create new industries

and jobs, and help us to achieve energy security and climate resilience”. (The Presidency,

Rebublic of South Africa, 2022)

6. Research Questions

i. What is the current Energy landscape and the negative effects on South Africa’s

economy?

ii. What are the opportunities and economic benefits of South Africa moving to

renewable energy?

iii. What is required from a political and policy point of view?

iv. What are the barriers that exist for South Africa?

5
 7. Literature Review

7.1. What is the current Energy landscape and the negative effects on

South Africa’s economy?

(Enerdata intelligence + consulting, 2022) recorded that South Africa has a population of 60.1

million individuals with a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.92% per year and

have a full energy independence.

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. is a state-owned parastatal that is responsible for the production,

distribution and transmission of electrical energy to South Africa. Eskom supplies 90% of South

Africa’s energy with a total installed capacity of 52294 megawatts (MWs) (Eskom Holdings

SOC Ltd, 2022). Fossil fuelled power stations (coal based) make up the majority of Eskom’s

fleet and provide the countries base load (Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd, 2022). Eskom however,

does incorporate other technologies in their plant mix which include nuclear power,

hydroelectric power, wind power, solar, pumped storage and gas turbine power (Eskom

Holdings SOC Ltd, 2022). There has also been the introduction of Independent Power

Producers (IPP) in the energy mix. These producers produce energy from renewable sources

and supply electricity to South Africa by means of Eskom’s grid. The energy is bought by

Eskom from the IPP’s. The following figure depicts the structure of the electricity sector in

South Africa.

6
 Figure 1: Structure of the electricity sector in South Africa (South African-German Energy
Partnership, 2021).
It is noted by (Jonghe, 2022) that this current energy supply mix is insufficient to meet South

Africa’s demand and that the county has be experiencing rotating (scheduled) blackouts since

2008. This has worsened from 2022 to date where more frequent blackouts are experienced

daily (Jonghe, 2022). (Mugodzva, 2019) states that South Africa’s economy has been affected

by energy problems relating to its supply and cost and that this has had a disruptive impact on

the production capability of the country. Many businesses are taking a toll as a result of load

shedding because in most cases they require electricity to function and run their businesses and

make losses as employees are not working during periods of load shedding. It is noted that not

all small businesses can obtain alternate power supplies such as private solar or battery storage

systems (TMMBS, 2021). (TMMBS, 2021) goes on to emphasize small businesses are at the

heart of South Africa’s economy as they provide employment to the majority and the effect of

not running their businesses for 3 to 4 hours due to lack electricity has major financial

implications on the business and the overall economy. Just with stage 2 (of 8 stages) of load

shedding over a couple of weeks, South Africa has been said to have lost two billion Rands

(TMMBS, 2021).

7
 7.2. What are the opportunities and economic benefits of South Africa

moving to renewable energy?

There are many economic benefits and opportunities to expand on renewable energy based on

the current shortfall. However, even beyond the supply issue, expanding renewables will also

assist to meet environmental sustainability goals given that South Africa the twelfth highest

emitter of carbon dioxide in the world due to it high coal dependence (Jonghe, 2022).

(McLennan, 2021) has a view that South Africa has vast potential for renewable energy (wind,

solar and hydro energy) and the movement to a green economy. (McLennan, 2021) goes on to

say that not only will it assist the country’s energy supply, boost foreign direct investment, and

improve the country’s credit rating but it will also foster employment opportunities and helping

the country meet its future climate commitments. This is supported by (Arnoldi, 2022) who

stated that said the renewable-energy sector in South Africa has created 51000 jobs to date, and

contributed 1.2 billion Rands to socioeconomic development, as well as 365 million Rands to

enterprise development. (South African-German Energy Partnership, 2021) further highlights

the projected electricity sources in 2030 and is displayed in the figure below.

Figure 2: Projected electricity sources by 2030 (South African-German Energy Partnership,

8
(McLennan, 2021) further says that studies that were carried by International Renewable

Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2016 concluded that the deployment of renewable energy will

result in an increase of the GDP. If the use of renewable energy is doubled by 2030, South

Africa is set to have a growth rate of 1% (McLennan, 2021).

Table 1: Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Project(s) Deployment (McLennan, 2021).

Economic level Potential effects on the economy

Macroeconomic level • Renewable energy deployment has the

potential to stimulate the economy and

attract further investment (foreign, local,

and government)

• Establishing new renewable energy

projects across the country will require

the need for industries outside of the

energy sector such as construction of

infrastructure, supply of basic

necessities, access to retail, housing,

schooling as well as a variety of other

secondary and tertiary products and

services.

Microeconomic level • Knock-on effect of increased consumer

spending across various sectors and

industries due to more citizens having

employment and access to money.

9
The case of renewables is further assisted by the fact that the deployment costs of renewable

energy have decreased by over 50% for both solar PV and onshore wind since 2011 and coal

production costs have risen significantly, rendering coal increasingly uncompetitive against

other fuel sources. (McLennan, 2021).

There has also been interest from foreign countries where at the United Nations Climate Change

Conference (COP26) in November 2021,the United States along with European nations pledged

only 8.5 billion Dollars to help South Africa transition away from coal (Jonghe, 2022) and a

further 7.2 billion Rands at COP27 in November 2022 for private sector solar and wind

generation projects (Dludla, 2022). These projects are in addition to the renewable projects

major South African businesses are embarking on to remove themselves from Eskom’s grid.

It should be noted that according to (Jonghe, 2022) South Africa will need to spend an estimated

250 billion Dollars over the next thirty years to finance shutting down coal-powered plants and

transitioning to wind and solar power this is still a huge leap from current initiatives. This

further highlights the future opportunities and investment potentials that will be available.

7.3. What is required from a political and policy point of view?

(South African-German Energy Partnership, 2021) explains that a comprehensive policy and

regulatory framework guides the energy sector in South Africa. This is depicted in Figure 3

below.

10
 Figure 3: Energy Policy in South Africa (South African-German Energy Partnership, 2021)

In greater detail the following figure highlights the recent key policy milestones that are set

out by the presidency for a Just Energy Transition.

Figure 4: Key Policy Milestones for South Africa (The Presidency, Rebublic of South Africa,
2022)
The dominance of fossil fuels on a path to change as the country gives effect to the policy

decision to diversify the energy mix as articulated in the 1998 White Paper on Energy Policy.

11
This diversification is already evident in the energy sources used for electricity production since

2013 further described by Figure 4 below.

Figure 5: The Share of Renewables in Electricity Production 1990 -2021 (Enerdata

On the 25th of July 2022, the South African President announced a series of interventions his

government will take to address the energy crisis (Jonghe, 2022). Their aim is to include

doubling the acquisition of renewable energy this year (2022) to over 5000 MW (Jonghe, 2022).

There are also intentions to provide incentives for households and businesses with rooftop solar

panels to sell excess solar power to Eskom to reduce the need for load-shedding (Jonghe, 2022).

According to the South African Energy Minister in December 2021, the government allocated

2.8 billion Dollars in contracts for twenty five renewable energy projects to the private sector.

These projects include wind farms and solar plants that aim to increase South Africa’s

electricity capacity generation by nearly five percent. The South African government is also set

to target to provide electricity to 3 million households through the grid and an additional 300000

households using non-grid solar energy, projected to resolve 90% of backlogs (Jonghe, 2022).

In addition, programmes by the South African government such as the Renewable Energy

Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) are set to move from small

numbers of wind and solar projects to a much broader utility-scale and dynamic sector (Arnoldi,

2022). (Arnoldi, 2022) estimates the following:

12
 • The total value of renewable-energy projects to be 35 billion Dollars, including 104

wind projects, more than 1000 solar projects;

• The solar photovoltaic sector requires nearly 1 million panels per year, excluding

rooftop developments, and will increase to 2.4 million panels per year by 2024;

• There is also a growing number of downstream green hydrogen projects;

• The South African REIPPPP ensured that 6244 MW of electricity had been procured

from 112 independent power producers (IPP’s) in seven bid rounds, while 4201 MW of

electricity generation capacity from 67 IPP projects had been connected to the national

grid; and,

• About 47000 GWh of energy has been generated by renewable-energy sources produced

under the REIPPPP since the first project became operational.

The South African government also offers special economic zones (SEZs), which are designed

to be investment optimisers and offer duty exemptions, lower tax rates and anaemic growth

(Arnoldi, 2022). (Arnoldi, 2022) states that this clustering effect places complementary

businesses in the same vicinity and helps achieve economies of scale in manufacturing and the

duty exemptions act like a pre-defined export rebate store and ensure better competitiveness in

export markets.

7.4. What are the barriers that exist for South Africa?

(Ndlovu, n.d.) explains that although installed renewable capacity has increased, cost

effectiveness with fossil fuels, dependency on subsidies and incentives are still a major

problem, this implies that a lot still needs to be done in order to tackle the renewables’ expense

and market structures. The dependency on coal is of further concern by (The World Economic

Forum and Accenture, 2014) as there is the likelihood Renewable energy might not be able fill

the base-load gap if the coal capacities are scaled back.

13
Another barrier to for renewable energy investment as per (McLennan, 2021) is that the Rand

is one of the world’s most politicised currencies and has devalued substantially in the last

decade. (McLennan, 2021) states that when South Africa is hit with another series of blackouts

(load shedding) or the government makes yet another mistake, the Rand takes a knock and the

rating agency tend toward downgrades, making investing in South Africa riskier.

(Leigland & Eberhard, 2018) explains that even though South Africa’s Renewable Energy

Independent Power Projects Procurement Program (REIPPPP) has been hailed as one of the

most successful programmes of its kind, the programme’s use of non-price factors such as local

jobs, local black ownership, local content, and local community ownership in bid evaluation

has generated criticism and controversy because the use of local content requirements and other

economic development measures violates various multilateral trade agreements, like the

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO)

Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMs). (Leigland & Eberhard, 2018)

state that the reason offered by South Africa for using localisation measures is the need to

achieve the twin objectives of local employment and the protection of infant industries.

Lastly the effect of a transition to an energy supply mix with smaller share of coal generation

is sensitive to other economic and policy conditions, in particular the reaction of the global coal

market and hence, South Africa’s coal exports (Bohlmann, Horridge, Inglesi-Lotz, Roos, &

Stander, 2019). Under conditions in which surplus coal resulting from lower domestic demand

cannot be readily exported, the economies of coal-producing regions in South Africa such as

the Mpumalanga province are the most severely affected (Bohlmann, Horridge, Inglesi-Lotz,

Roos, & Stander, 2019). The subsequent migration of semi-skilled labour from that province to

others within the country require appropriate and timeous planning by energy policymakers and

urban planners (Bohlmann, Horridge, Inglesi-Lotz, Roos, & Stander, 2019).

14
 8. Discussion

Based on the above literature survey it is seen the energy crisis in South Africa is leaving the

country and its economy in a severely distressed state. The country’s state-owned power utility

that supplies 90% (Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd, 2022) of the electrical power is struggling to

meet the current demand of electricity. The utility heavily relies on coal based (fossil fuel)

power generation this forms about 85% of the utility’s energy mix. This is not sustainable for

the country from an environmental emission and carbon footprint perspective and has adverse

economic effects. The current objective is to phase out the use of fossil fuel power generation.

This opens the market to renewable energy sources to supply in excess of 44602 MW of energy

for this to be possible. This is a mammoth task and requires various players such as government,

local investors and international investors to take advantage of the current energy land scape.

In money terms the investment value would equate to 250 billion Dollars over the next thirty

years (Jonghe, 2022). This would be a massive boost to the country and would lead to economic

growth, environmental sustainability and overall wellbeing of the country and its people. From

the macroeconomic point of view (McLennan, 2021) states that it will stimulate the economy

and the various projects would in turn require other industries like retail, housing, services to

grow as result. (McLennan, 2021) adds that the microeconomic would be increased consumer

spending in various areas of the economy due to increased employment and access to funding.

This will have a great impact on the country’s GDP which is projected to see a growth rate of

1% should the use of renewable energy is doubled.

There are many opportunities in this space with initiatives like the South African-German

partnership, the JET (Just Energy transition), foreign pledges as a result of the United Nations

Climate Change Conference, COP26 (2021) and COP27 (2022) where 8.5 billion and 7.2

billion Dollars have been pledged so far for private sector solar and wind generation projects

(Dludla, 2022) & (Jonghe, 2022). In addition, programmes by the South African government

15
such as the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme

(REIPPPP) are set to move utility scale renewable energy sources and a dynamic sector

(Arnoldi, 2022). This is a 35 billion Dollar projected investment which aims to secure 6244

MW of electricity. To date great strides have been made in the country regarding renewable

energy, since 2013 the share of renewable energy in the energy mix of the country as increased

by about 7% as shown in Figure 5 above. This has created 51000 jobs to date, and contributed

1.2 billion Rands to socioeconomic development (Arnoldi, 2022). All of the above makes South

Africa very fertile ground for investment, opportunities and innovation.

This is supported by the South African government as great emphasis is being made to correct

the path and transition to the use of renewable energy. The government is actively making

efforts to secure foreign support and partnerships at various forums. Furthermore, plans, policy

and legislation have been in process change and updates since 1998. These changes and updates

support the Just Energy Transition proposed by the South African government and instrumental

in setting up a solid foundation and framework to build the renewable energy sector.

Unfortunately, there are barriers that exist, these include:

• The high cost related to renewable energy initiatives (Ndlovu, n.d.);

• Renewable energy might not be able fill the base load gap if the coal capacities are

scaled back (The World Economic Forum and Accenture, 2014);

• Instability of the South African Rand and potential downgrading by rating agency on

investing in the country (McLennan, 2021); and,

• Local policies that affect non-price factors such as local jobs, local black ownership,

local content, local community ownership in bid evaluation and other economic

development measures is said to violate various multilateral trade agreements (Leigland

& Eberhard, 2018).

16
 • The effect of having a smaller share of coal generation has on the global coal market

and South Africa’s coal exports (Bohlmann, Horridge, Inglesi-Lotz, Roos, & Stander,

2019).

The barriers above have some potential of slowing down the momentum of the renewable

energy transition. These barriers are far from impossible to resolve and with due diligence and

the correct attention these risks can be mitigated and managed.

9. Recommendations

The complete phase out of coal and fossil fuels should be handled appropriately. It is

recommended that government does this with also a proper framework in mind to support the

downscaling of that sector and assist with migration of skills and jobs to the other sectors within

the economy. Another recommendation would be to study and observe other countries that have

succeeded in such transitions and draw on lessons learnt and best practices to ensure a smooth

transition to renewable energy.

10. Conclusion

South Africa’s current energy land scape is in a dire state and is negatively affecting the

economy as well as the environment as about 85% of the energy mix comes from fossil fuel

sources. This is of great concern for South Africa however, this landscape brigs with it vast

room for renewable energy investment opportunities to fill the gap in the short term and

completely change the market in the long term. This will come with great economic and

environmental benefit. The South African government is set to enable a just renewable energy

transition and has already established a multitude of policy, legislative, energy plan changes,

started programmes to move from small numbers of wind and solar projects to a much broader

utility-scales and secure various funding pledges and partnerships. These initiatives and support

frameworks will lure local and foreign investment to foster a lucrative and sustainable market.

17
The measures can include in the short term to utilize and invest the committed funds in

renewables to assist with the current short fall, these efforts will stabilize the current economic

challenges.

This, however comes with some barriers that have some potential of slowing down the

momentum of the renewable energy transition. These barriers are far from impossible to resolve

and with due diligence and the correct attention these risks can be mitigated and managed. The

complete phase out of coal and fossil fuels is the long term objective and significant effort is

being made by the country to meet this objective. To get to this both markets will be have to

supported to stabilize the electrical energy supply and the economy until such time where

renewable energy source can stabilize the country’s base load energy requirements for both

industry and the general population. Thereafter the renewable energy transition will be able to

move into another phase where the country can aggressively phase out the fossil fuel energy

and coal reliance.

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