Paytm
Paytm
Paytm
Despite being a loss-making company, Paytm managed to create a strong buzz around its IPO.
Think of Paytm and everyone is talking billions of dollars, especially more so with big names like
Jack Ma and Ratan Tata being involved with it.
The first round of creative disruption began in corporate India in the year 1991 with Dr
Manmohan Singh and Narasimha Rao's reform which has had beneficial consequences for
India. However, the second round of similar disruption was seen by many with the advent of
the start-up ecosystem that revolutionised several sectors, with Paytm pioneering one such
change by accelerating India's fintech revolution.
Humble beginnings
In 2000, Vijay Shekhar Sharma established Paytm's parent organisation One97
Communications, through a Rs 8 lakh loan. He went on to finally establish the Noida-based
Paytm in 2010 as a prepaid mobile and DTH (direct-to-home) recharge platform.
But from those humble beginnings, he ended up catapulting Paytm into the country's most
valued fintech start-up in less than a decade.
Post the launch of the Paytm Wallet in 2014, it became one of the most used digital wallets
across India. Over the course of the next few years, Paytm widened its base and expanded into
e-commerce through ticket bookings and online deals. Its use leapfrogged in the year 2016
after the government's shock ban on high-value currency notes magnified digital payments.
After the demonetisation, "Paytm Karo" became the legendary catchphrase that every Indian
got hooked on to when it came to online shopping.
In the year 2017, the company became the country's first-ever payments app to surpass the
threshold of 100 million downloads. Today Paytm boasts of 1.2 billion monthly transactions (as
of March 1, 2021) with over 150 million monthly active users.
With this, the digital payments giant commands the highest market share in the offline
merchant payments space, with 15 per cent month-on-month growth. The company has
branched out into several services comprising gold sales, insurance, bank deposits and
remittances, and movie and flight ticketing.
After Paytm pioneered digital payments in the country, the space soon boomed as Amazon,
Google, WhatsApp and Walmart's Phone Pe also launched their payment services to grab a slice
of the lucrative market expected to grow to over $95.29 trillion by the end of March 2025,
according to EY.
Paytm IPO - Making history
With the biggest ever IPO in India, Paytm scripted history on Thursday (November 18, 2021). Its
public offer is bigger than Coal India's Rs 15,200 crore IPO in 2010.
Despite making a tepid market debut, Paytm managed to cross the milestone of Rs 1 lakh crore
market capitalisation. The digital payments firm reached a market cap of Rs 1.19 lakh crore on
BSE.
The share listed at Rs 1,955 on BSE, a discount of 9.06% to the issue price. Later, the market cap
of the firm fell to Rs 1.10 lakh crore, as the share further dipped 20.47% to Rs 1,704 on BSE.
On NSE, the share of Vijay Shekhar Sharma-led company opened at Rs 1,950, a 9.30% discount
to the IPO issue price. The share further fell 20.93% to Rs 1,700 on NSE.
There's no other fintech company quite like Paytm that's listed on the bourses. Despite being a
loss-making company, the digital payments giant managed to create a strong buzz around its
IPO.
The public offer received bids for 5.24 crore equity shares against the offer size of 4.83 crore
shares, according to information available from stock exchanges. Qualified institutional buyers
(QIBs), who were less than enthusiastic in participating in the IPO in the initial two days,
flooded the issue, seeking 1.59 times the shares reserved for them.
Backed by marquee investors like Alibaba Group, SoftBank, Ant Financial, T. Rowe Price, SAIF
Partners, Warren
Buffett's Berkshire Hathway, Rata Tata, and Mountain Capital, Paytm was looking at a valuation
of Rs 1.47-1.78 lakh crore.
Out of its IPO worth Rs 18,300 crore, fresh issue of shares comprises Rs 8,300 crore while
existing shareholders will offload shares worth Rs 10,000 crore.
Market share
Paytm commands over 40 per cent of India's digital payments market in the country's biggest
cities. Although it has yet to turn a profit, the company has benefitted from an overwhelming
interest from foreign and Indian investors seeking a stake in India's surging internet economy.
One 97 Communications Ltd., the operator of India’s largest digital-payments provider known
as Paytm, has capped the worst first-year share plunge among large IPOs over the past decade
-- and the pain is worsening.
The company, whose founder compared its challenges to those faced by Tesla Inc. shortly after
the listing, has seen its stock erase 75% of its market value one year after its $2.4 billion
offering, the largest on record at the time in India. The dive is the steepest first-year slide
globally among IPOs that raised at least the same amount since Spain’s Bankia SA’s 82% drop in
2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Paytm’s grim first anniversary underscores an erosion of confidence in its ability to become
profitable after debuting at a time when India’s IPO market was enamored with tech startups.
It’s one among a slew of startups that listed with valuations seen by many as exaggerated.
The stock’s losses have deepened this week amid concerns over the emergence of a potential
competitor owned by India’s biggest conglomerate. Last week, Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp.
sold shares it held in Paytm as a lock-up period set in the IPO expired, fueling a three-day slide.
November’s 30% slide has taken its decline from the IPO price of 2,150 rupees to 79%.
Tech Rout
Tech stocks globally have been sold off as investors shun loss-making firms amid a deteriorating
macroeconomic environment, JM Financial Ltd. analysts led by Sachin Dixit wrote in a note this
week.
“This feedback has been well received by company managements and we are seeing all Indian
internet companies not just prioritizing profitability but also communicating the path forward
explicitly,” they wrote.
Paytm shares were sold at the top of a marketed range after an offering that attracted strong
demand from individuals and funds, although they never traded above the listing price. The sale
attracted traditional global stock pickers such as BlackRock Inc. and the Canada Pension Plan
Investment Board.
“In every rally, the market as a whole gets too excited about something,” said Shridatta
Bhandwaldar, head of equities at Canara Robeco Asset Management. “In 2006-2008, we got
too excited about construction companies and capital goods companies. In 2013-2014, we got
too excited about midcaps. In 2017-2019 we got extremely excited about non-banking financial
companies and in 2020-2022 people were just too excited about technology.”
“Some of these companies have good business models,” he said, adding that “still, you feel
there is not enough margin of safety because these are evolving businesses.”
Paytm's Vijay Shekhar Sharma on learning from company's public listing journey The IPO
experience pushed Paytm to get its head down and execute a strategy for it to get to the
numbers that it has been able to achieve today, said Paytm's founder, at TechSparks 2023, in
Delhi.
Fintech firm Paytm was able to achieve Rs 10,000 crore in annualised revenue as it learnt the
biggest lesson of its journey after its IPO (initial public offering) process in 2021, said the
company's founder and CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma. "We were a $20-billion company before
the IPO, and, after that, suddenly people said that they could not see revenue (and) could not
see profits," he said, in a conversation with YourStory Founder and CEO, Shradha Sharma, at
TechSparks 2023, in Delhi. The IPO experience pushed the team at Paytm to rally around and
rework its strategy. From that moment on, it was a "head down and execute" strategy for
Paytm to get to the numbers that the firm has been able to achieve today, said Paytm's
founder.
For the second quarter ended September 2023, the company recorded a revenue of Rs 2,519
crore, a 32% rise from a year ago. It narrowed its quarterly losses to Rs 291 crore, from Rs 571
crore a year ago. "I truly feel privileged that when companies generally take 3-6 years to learn,
it only took six months in our case," said Paytm's Sharma, recalling the tough funding
environment experienced by the company during its IPO phase. "Between 2010-2020, I could
say we experienced an easier-than-today life in terms of fund raising, where metrics like
number of transactions and users were used for traction projection," he said, adding that now a
company gets funding only on the basis of the actual numbers of the projected traction. "That is
what happened while we were in the midst of an IPO," noted Sharma. "We just knew that the
market had tanked and we have to sort through that," he said, adding that it would have been
much more painful if the company had moved from a high tide to a low tide. Paytm's shares
have gained nearly 84% as of the last closing price on Wednesday (November 29, 2023), from
its 52-week low of Rs 471.15 on November 29, 2022. Listed in November 2021, the company's
stock has lost about 60% compared with its issue price of Rs 2,150. Paytm's shares closed at Rs
867.15 on Wednesday.
Paytm shares nosedive 18% on plans to slow down Postpaid loans
Paytm's decision to scale down its low-ticket postpaid lending business comes after the RBI
tightened the norms for unsecured consumer lending.
Shares of Paytm traded over 18 percent lower as of afternoon trade on December 7 after the
company announced plans to slow down its small-ticket postpaid loans while it looks to expand
its high-ticket personal loans and merchant loans. The decision has not gone well with
brokerages as well, prompting them to cut their revenue estimates for the company.
At 12.42 pm, shares of Paytm were trading 18 percent lower at Rs 666.50 on the NSE, after
being locked in their 20 percent lower circuit in early trade.
The sharp fall in the stock also triggered a spike in volumes as 3 crore shares changed hands so
far, significantly higher than the one-month daily traded average of 50 lakh shares.
The company said at its analyst meet that its postpaid loans could fall to half, but it would not
have any impact on margins or revenue. Postpaid had the lowest take rate and hence revenue
impact will be minimal, the company added.
Shares of Paytm traded over 18 percent lower as of afternoon trade on December 7 after the
company announced plans to slow down its small-ticket postpaid loans while it looks to expand
its high-ticket personal loans and merchant loans. The decision has not gone well with
brokerages as well, prompting them to cut their revenue estimates for the company.
At 12.42 pm, shares of Paytm were trading 18 percent lower at Rs 666.50 on the NSE, after
being locked in their 20 percent lower circuit in early trade.
The sharp fall in the stock also triggered a spike in volumes as 3 crore shares changed hands so
far, significantly higher than the one-month daily traded average of 50 lakh shares.
The company said at its analyst meet that its postpaid loans could fall to half, but it would not
have any impact on margins or revenue. Postpaid had the lowest take rate and hence revenue
impact will be minimal, the company added.
Brokerage firm Jefferies stated that Paytm's decision to recalibrate its 'Buy now pay later'
(BNPL) business came as lending partners dialed back after RBI's recent move on unsecured
lending. BNPL disbursals, which make up 55 percent of total disbursements will halve in the
next 3-4 months, Jefferies stated in a note. Even though the management plans to partially
offset it by scaling up its high-ticket personal loans and merchant loans, Jefferies feels that the
quantum of tightening for the BNPL business is ahead of expectations.
On that account, the brokerage slashed its FY24-26 revenue estimates for Paytm by 3-10
percent, also triggering a cut in adjusted EBITDA estimates by 12-15 percent. Not just that,
Jefferies also revised its price target for the stock downward by over 19 percent to Rs 1,050
even as it retained its 'buy' call on Paytm.
Goldman Sachs also downgraded the stock to a 'neutral' rating with a price target of Rs 840.
The brokerage house also lowered its FY24-26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates for
Paytm by up to 10 percent and 40 percent, respectively.
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley believes that the decision to scale its down low-ticket
postpaid lending business will result in a drop in Paytm's disbursement run-rate over the near
term. The brokerage has an 'equalweight' call on the stock with a price target of Rs 830.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services also believes that Paytm's total disbursement run rate is also
likely to decline to around Rs 4,500 crore per month from of about Rs 6,000 per month. "Paytm
adds average 3.5-4 lakh customers every quarter, which is also expected to come down by 50
percent," MOFSL added.
Meanwhile, even though MOFSL said that it remains watchful of the longevity of these
measures and the outlook in low-ticket unsecured loans the firm still trimmed its FY24/FY25
disbursement estimates by 15 percent-18 percent, resulting in an 11-16 percent cut in its
adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24/25.
Paytm slowing down low ticket Postpaid loans by around 50%, accelerating high ticket loans
Paytm has been forced to scale back its lending business after RBI's move tightened the
norms for unsecured consumer lending
Paytm will slow down its small ticket Postpaid loans even as it is looking to expand its high
ticket personal loans and merchant loans, the company said in an analyst meet on December 6.
The company said its Postpaid loans could be down by 50 percent but will not have any impact
on margins or revenue. Postpaid had the lowest take rate and hence revenue impact will be
minimal, the company added.
"On the back of recent macro development and regulatory guidance, in consultation with
lending partners, in line with its continued focus on driving a healthy portfolio, the company has
recalibrated the portfolio origination of less than ₹50,000, which is prominently the postpaid
loan product and will now be a smaller part of its loan distribution business going forward," the
company said in a media statement.
The company said that none of its lending partners have stopped lending to its customers.
Paytm has slowed down its postpaid loan products on the platform from December 1, with
several users complaining on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). The accounts have
been blocked for multiple users despite paying the loans on time, the users complained.
Moneycontrol got in touch with some users, who said they found this message appearing for
them, "We are upgrading the experience and enhancing security measures. We will be back
soon."
Paytm facilitates lending on its platform through its partnership with lenders such as Aditya
Birla Finance Limited (ABFL), Piramal Finance, Shriram Capital and Tata Capital among others.
Paytm earns commissions as well as collection charges for the loans provided on its platform.
Since the RBI tightened the norms for unsecured consumer loans by raising the risk weight for
banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), some of the loan accounts seem to have
been stopped. The lending division contributes to a quarter of Paytm's revenues.
News reports suggest that ABFL has fully or partially suspended the lending facilities on Paytm
and other fintech platforms. It is not clear whether other lending partners have done the same.
Some users have been told by Paytm, "Your Postpaid loan facility was sanctioned by ABFL at
their sole discretion. Currently, this facility is closed by them. We shall keep you updated when
you can reapply for the facility again."
Paytm: Down over 40% from 52-week high, should you consider the stock now?
Shares of One97 Communications (Paytm) have been experiencing a persistent downward
trend, with a decline of over 3 percent on Wednesday, following a more than 6 percent drop in
the previous session. The stock has faced a considerable downturn of 31.5 percent in December
alone.
Shares of One97 Communications (Paytm) have been experiencing a persistent downward
trend, with a decline of over 3 percent on Wednesday, following a more than 6 percent drop in
the previous session. The stock has faced a considerable downturn of 31.5 percent in December
alone, exhibiting negative returns in 8 out of the 9 sessions so far. Notably, it has been in the
green in only 1 session of December.
This recent decline follows an almost 5 percent drop in November. The overall trend reflects
weak investor sentiments and a substantial correction of more than 40 percent from its 52-
week high of ₹998.30, reached on October 20, 2023. This decline represents the most
significant fall for the company on the back of its announcement of changes to its small ticket
loans and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) business.
The ongoing challenges and changes in Paytm's business strategy appear to be impacting
investor confidence, leading to a notable correction in the stock's value over the past couple of
months.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently languishes in the oversold zone at 18. In addition,
the MACD indicator indicates a slowed reversal from current levels. Despite trading below key
moving averages, the stock may undergo consolidation after a sharp recovery, presenting a
strategic accumulation opportunity within the 600-620 support zone.
The broader market reflects an 8% surge in Nifty within a month, urging a cautious stance,
while mid-cap stocks might continue to outperform, poised for further upward momentum.
Amidst this market flux, an astute approach involves monitoring the stock's price at key support
levels ₹600-620 for potential entry points.
Rohan Shah - Technical Analyst, Religare Broking Ltd
Paytm has been in a bear grip after hitting the 52-week high of 998 levels and has plunged
about 35% thereon. The sharp sell-off recently has led the price to negate its higher high and
higher low formation on the weekly chart. Furthermore, the decline in today's session has
recorded a breakdown from the rising trendline, which is drawn connecting the significant lows.
Besides, it has slipped below its long-term moving average i.e. 200 DEMA which suggests
weakness in the overall trend. Going ahead, a breakdown below 650-640 would propel further
selling pressure, taking the price lower towards the 610-580 zone. In case of any bounce due to
oversold positions, we believe the 700-725 zone will act as a critical resistance area.
A look at Patym’s journey since its IPO reveals that it was listed at a discounted price which has
lead to a drastic fall in its share price. Subsequently its share price stabilized somewhere
between Rs. 800 to 900. Another blow hits Patym in the form of RBI’s move on unsecured
consumer loans in the last week of November 2023 which has negatively impacted its
business strategy with a plummeting share price and a continuous fall in its share price. The
need of the hour is that Patym has to relook at its business strategy in light of RBI’s move and
should win consumer and investor confidence.
Annexure:
i. One 97 Communications was started in 2000, which launched Paytm in 2009, as a “mobile-
first” digital payments platform to enable cashless payments for Indians, giving them the power
to make payments from their mobile phones.
ii. It offers consumers a wide selection of payment options on the Paytm app, which include
(i) Paytm Payment Instruments, which allows to use digital wallets, sub-wallets, bank accounts,
buy-now-pay-later, and wealth management accounts.
(ii) Major third-party instruments, such as debit and credit cards and net banking.
iii. The company’s ecosystem serves 333 million consumers and over 21 million merchants.
Competitive Strengths
i. Trusted brand, scale and reach
ii. Deep insights of Indian consumers and merchants
iii. Leadership and our distinctive culture
Net proceeds from the fresh issue will be used in : 1. Growing and strengthening the Paytm
ecosystem, including through acquisition and retention of consumers and merchants and
providing them with greater access to technology and financial services 2. Investing in new
business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships 3. General corporate purposes.
- - -
Profit/Loss
1513 2653 4196