STATISTICS IS THE GRAMMAR OF SCIENCE
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
LECTURE – 13
INTRODUCTION TO
PROBABILITY
PREPARED BY
HAZBER SAMSON
FAST NUCES ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
INTRODUCTION TO SET THEORY
DEFINITION The collection of well-defined and distinct objects is called a set. Sets are
usually denoted by capital letters while elements of the set are denoted by small letters.
EXAMPLES 1 A 1,2,3,4,5 2 B {a, e, i, o, u}
SOME IMPORTANT SETS
1. Set of Natural Numbers
N 1,2,3,......
2. Set of Whole Numbers
W 0,1,2,3,......
3. Set of Integers
Z 0,1,2,3,......
4. Set of Prime Numbers
P 2,3,5,7,......
5. Set of Even Numbers
E 0,2,4,6......
6. Set of Odd Numbers
O 1,3,5......
7. Set of Rational Numbers
p
Q x x Q x , q 0
q
8. Set of Irrational Numbers
Q c Non Ter min ating and Non Re curring Decimals
9. Set of Real Numbers
R Q Qc
1
10. Set of Complex Numbers
C A Number of the form a bi
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PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
TYPES OF SETS
EMPTY SET A set which contains no element is called empty set. It is denoted by φ
or { }.
SUBSET If A and B are two sets and if all the elements of A are the elements of B then
set A is called subset of set B. It is denoted by A B.
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {1,2} and B = {1,2,3} then A B.
2- If A = {a,b} and B = {a,b} then A B.
NOTE Every set is a subset of its self ie A A
Empty set is a subset of every set ie φ A.
There are two types of subsets 1- Proper Subset 2-Improper Subset
PROPER SUBSET If A and B are two sets than set A is called proper subset of set B if
A B and there is at least one element in B which is not in A. It is denoted by A B.
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {1,2} and B = {1,2,3} then A B.
2- If A = {A} and B = {a,b} then A B.
IMPROPER SUBSET If A and B are two sets than set A is called an improper subset of
set B if A B and there is no element in B which is not in A. It is denoted by A B.
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {1,2} and B = {1,2} than A B.
2- If A = {a} and B = {a} then A B.
UNIVERSAL SET A set which is superset of all the sets under consideration is called
universal set. It is usually denoted by U.
POWER SET The power set of a set S is the set which contains all the possible subsets
of S. It is denoted by P(A).
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {a,b} than P(A) = { , {a},{b},{a,b} }
2- If B = { } then P(B) = { }
NOTE If set S has n elements than P(S) has 2n elements.
OPERATIONS ON SETS
UNION OF SETS
If A and B are two sets then their union is denoted by A U B and it contains all the
elements of A and B.
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {1,2,3} and B = {2,3,4} than A U B = {1,2,3,4}
2
2- If A = {a} and B = {b} than A U B = {a,b}
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NOTE 1 A A A, 2 A A, 3 A U U , 4 , 5 A B B A
PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
INTERSECTION OF SETS
If A and B are two sets than their intersection is denoted by A ∩ B and it contains the
common elements of A and B.
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {1,2,3} and B = {2,3,4} than A ∩ B = {2,3}
2- If A = {a} and B= {b} than A ∩ B = { }
NOTE 1 A A A, 2 A , 3 A U A, 4 , 5 A B B A
DIFFERENCE OF SETS
If A and B are two sets than their difference is denoted by A – B and it contains elements
of A which are not in B.
EXAMPLES 1- If A = {1,2,3} and B = {2,3,4} than A-B = {1} and B-A = {4}
2- If A = {a} and B= {b} than A-B = { } and B-A = { }.
NOTE 1 A A , 2 A A, 3 U A Ac , 4 , 5 A B B A
COMPLEMENT OF A SET If A is a subset of U than its complement is denoted by Ac or
A and is given by A U A
EXAMPLES 1- If U = {1,2,3,4,5} and A = {1,2,3} than Ac= U-A = {4,5}
2- If U = {a,b} and B = {a} than Bc U-B {a}
NOTE 1 A U A, 2 U c , 3 c U
c
LAWS OF SETS
If A, B and C are subsets of a Universal set U then the following laws hold
DEMORGAN LAWS
1 A B Ac B c
c
2 A B Ac B c
c
DISTRIBUTIVE LAWS
1 A ( B C ) ( A B) A C
2 A ( B C ) ( A B) A C
ASSOCIATIVE LAWS
1 ( A B) C A ( B C )
2 ( A B) C A ( B C )
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PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY
EXPERIMENT A well-defined collection or process of obtaining an observation is called
an experiment. The performance of an experiment is called trial and the result obtained
is called an outcome.
RANDOM EXPERIMENT An experiment which produces different outcomes although it
is repeated under similar conditions for a large number of time is called a random
experiment. A random experiment has following properties.
1. The experiment can be repeated by any number of times.
2. A random trial consists of at least two possible outcomes.
EXAMPLES
1-Toss a coin,
2-Throw a die etc.
SAMPLE SPACE The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called
sample space. It is denoted by S. Each element in a sample space is called sample
point.
EXAMPLES
1. When a coin is tossed once
S H , T
2. When a coin is tossed twice or two coins are tossed once
S HH , HT , TH , TT
3. When a coin is tossed thrice or three coins are tossed once
S HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT
4. When a die is thrown once
S 1,2,3,4,5,6
5. When a die is thrown twice or two dice are thrown once
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
S
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
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(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
EVENT AND TYPES OF EVENTS
EVENT A subset of the sample space is called an event.
EXAMPLES
1. when a coin is tossed once then the sets A H or B T are events.
2. When a die is rolled once then the sets A 2 , B 3,4, C 1,3,5 or
D 1,2,3,4 etc are events.
TYPES OF EVENTS
SIMPLE EVENT
An event that contains exactly one sample point is called simple event. It is also called
elementary event.
EXAMPLES
1. When two coins are tossed once then the event A HH is a simple event.
2. When a die is rolled once then the event B 3 is a simple event.
COMPOUND EVENT
An event that contains more then one sample point is called
compound event. It is also called composite event.
EXAMPLES
1. When two coins are tossed once then the event A HH .HT is a compound
event.
2. When a die is rolled once then the event B 2,4,6is compound event.
IMPOSSIBLE EVENT
An event that contains no sample point is called impossible event. It is also called null
event.
For example A is impossible event for every sample space.
SURE EVENT
An event that contains all the sample points is called sure event. It is also called certain
event.
EXAMPLES
1. When a coin is tossed once then the event A H , T is sure event.
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2. When a die is rolled once then the event B 1,2,3,4,5,6is sure event.
PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same
time ie A B
EXAMPLES
1. when a coin is tossed once then the events A H and B T are mutually
exclusive events.
2. when a die is rolled once then the events A 1,3,5 and B 2,4.6 are mutually
exclusive events.
COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
Two events A and B are said to be collectively exhaustive events if their union is sample
space itself ie A B S
EXAMPLES
1. when a coin is tossed once then the events A H and B T are collectively
exhaustive events.
2. when a die is rolled once then the events A 1,3,5 and B 2,4.6 are
collectively exhaustive events.
EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS
Two events A and b are said to be equally likely, if they have same chances of
occurrence.
EXAMPLES
1. when a coin is tossed once then the events A H and B T are equally likely
events.
2. when a die is rolled once then the events A 1,3,5 and B 2,4.6 are
equally likely events.
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PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
INFORMATION ABOUT CARDS
Total number of cards = 52
COLOURS = 2 (Red and Black)
SETS (SUITS)
There are four sets of Cards (13 in each type)
1. Clubs ♣
2. Hearts ♥
3. Spades ♠
4. Diamonds ♦
ORDER OF CARDS
Ace Queen
A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
jack King
TYPES
Pictured Cards = 12, Aces = 4
HANDS
Bridge Hand = 13
Poker Hand = 5
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PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
MT-2005 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
CLASSICAL DEFINITION If there are equally likely, mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive outcomes and m of which are favorable to the occurrence of an event A then
the probability of the occurrence of the event A, is denoted by P(A) and is given by
P A
no of favourableoutcomes
no of possible outcomes
P A
m
Or
n
MATHEMATICAL DEFINITION The probability that an event will occur, is the ratio of the
number of sample points in A to the total no of sample points in S.
P A
no of elements in A
Mathematically
no of elements in S
n A
Or P A
n S
AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
1. Probability of an event cannot be negative ie P A 0 .
2. Probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 ie 0 P A 1 .
3. Probability of a null event is zero ie P 0
4. Probability of a sure event is 1.ie PS 1
5. If A and B are mutually exclusive events then P A B P A PB
NOTE If A is any event of a sample space S then
P Ac 1 P A
Also
P A 1 P Ac 8
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PREPARED BY HAZBER SAMSON SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES DPT FAST ISLAMABAD
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