Oppenheimer RUN RUN Growth Continues With Strong Demand
Oppenheimer RUN RUN Growth Continues With Strong Demand
Oppenheimer RUN RUN Growth Continues With Strong Demand
EQUITY RESEARCH
QUARTERLY UPDATE
May 5, 2022 SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION
Stock Rating:
SunRun Inc.
OUTPERFORM
12-18 mo. Price Target $70.00
RUN: Growth Continues with Strong Demand
RUN - NASDAQ $24.34 SUMMARY
RUN posted strong deployments while raising 2022 deployment guidance to 25%
3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate NA growth (from 20%-plus). At the same time, the company is implementing price
52-Wk Range $60.60-$18.61 increases, which it expects to drive increased value capture per subscriber to $10K by
Shares Outstanding 208.7M 3Q22 (from $7.1k) noting the backdrop of utility rate increases of ~10%-plus in many
Float 200.4M of its geographies. We are also encouraged by RUN's active management of its cost
Market Capitalization $5,114.1M of capital, which it estimates at 4.5% including the benefit of rate swaps after upsizing
Avg. Daily Trading Volume 7,028,404 its recourse lending facility to $600M (from $250M) and pricing a ~$521M ABS in April
Dividend/Div Yield $0.00/0.00% at L+215. With interest rates fluctuating aggressively, we anticipate shares will follow,
RUN's spread capture closely. We remain bullish as we adjust estimates and maintain
Book Value $33.78
our $70 PT.
Fiscal Year Ends Dec
2022E ROE NA KEY POINTS
LT Debt $6,476.0M
■ CFO transition. RUN announced that Danny Abajian would replace Tom
Preferred $0.0M
VonReichbauer as CFO. With over 11 years in RUN's finance team including his
Common Equity $7,050M
roll as Group Head, Project Finance, we expect a smooth transition. We expect Mr.
Convertible Available Yes
Abajian's experience in project finance will prove critical for RUN as we believe the
Revenue most pressing issue for CFO is managing cost of capital.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult.
($/mil)
2019A 194.5 204.6 215.5 243.9 858.6 NM ■ What happened?. RUN installed 213MW of solar energy capacity in 1Q22.
2020A 210.7 181.3 209.8 320.4 922.2 NM Creation cost/subscriber was $29,863: installation cost $21,801/subscriber, S&M
2021A 334.8 401.2 438.8 435.2 1.6B NM $8,360/subscriber, G&A $1,087/subscriber, and a Platform Services margin
2022E 495.8A 437.1 478.0 476.0 1.8B NM of $(1,389)/subscriber. Revenue/GAAP EPS of $210M/($0.42) compared to
Prior (E) 387.9 429.0 -- 475.8 1.8B NM consensus of $400M/($0.19)E. ARR increased 3.7% sequentially, from $851M in
2023E -- -- -- -- 2.1B NM 4Q21.
Prior (E) -- -- -- -- 2.1B NM
■ How was guidance? RUN increased guidance for FY22 MW deployments to be up
EPS
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult. 25% or greater y/y, an increase of 500BPS vs. 4Q21 guidance (implied ~990MW,
GAAP
2019A (0.12) (0.01) 0.23 0.10 0.22 NM 235–245MW for 2Q22). Total Value Generated is expected to grow faster than MW
2020A (0.23) (0.11) 0.28 (0.88) (1.24) NM deployed during FY22, with Net Subscriber Values exceeding $10,000 in 3Q22.
2021A (0.12) (0.20) 0.11 (0.19) (0.39) NM Margins anticipated to improve sequentially throughout the year.
2022E 0.42A (0.15) 0.16 (0.16) (1.05) NM ■ Estimates. Our updated FY22E revenue/installations/EPS estimates go
Prior (E) 0.34 0.39 0.44 0.46 1.63 NM to $1,787M/992MW/($1.05) (from $1,771M/957MW/$1.63). We update
2023E -- -- -- -- (0.45) NM
FY23 revenue/installations/EPS estimates to $2,127M/1,116MW/($0.45) (from
Prior (E) -- -- -- -- 1.86 NM
$2,105M/1,077MW/$1.86) as we account for harmonized NCI levels.
■ Valuation. Our $70 PT (same) is based on $14.24 (from $14.52) net value of
contracted and installed gross earning assets. We apply an 18x multiple to our
2023E adjusted FCF of $668M (from $670M) for projects deployed to value the
development business at $62.93/share (was $63.32/share) discounted one-year at
10% for a combined value of $70/share. We assume an 80% contract renewal rate.
Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
Colin Rusch Noa
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SunRun Inc. RUN (OUTPERFORM) - $70.00
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RUN
0
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Source: Bloomberg
BASE CASE ASSUMPTION CATALYSTS
■ 992MW deployed in 2022 ■ 2022: Tracking installation and cost metrics
■ Continuing reductions in installed cost/W ■ Accelerated deployment and refinancing schedules
■ Broader introduction of Brightbox, RUN's energy storage product
Our $70 PT (same) is based on $14.24 (from $14.52) net value of contracted and installed gross earning assets. We apply an 18x multiple
to our 2023E adjusted FCF of $668M (from $670M) for projects deployed to value the development business at $62.93/share (was $63.32/
share) discounted one-year at 10% for a combined value of $70/share. We assume an 80% contract renewal rate.
■ Capital Risk: RUN's business model depends on its ability to fund installation growth and recycle capital efficiently through debt, ABS,
and other vehicles.
■ Regulatory Risk: RUN faces an environment in which Federal, state, and local incentives and regulations governing distributed solar
are subject to change.
■ Technology Risk: The markets for RUN's products and services are rapidly changing due to changing customer demands, technological
improvements, and new product introductions, as well as changes in pricing, industry standards, and global economic factors.
■ Competitive Risk: RUN is competing against a variety of integrated solar players and local vendors.
■ Macroeconomic Risk: Macro conditions or weakness in the general economy could slow demand for RUN's products.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS *
ESG Rating B
ESG Rating Environment A-
ESG Rating Social B+
ESG Rating Governance C+
*Environmental/Social/Governance (ESG) scores are courtesy of Refinitiv's ESG product which are designed to transparently and objectively measure a company's relative
ESG performance, commitment and effectiveness, based on company-reported data. Refinitiv's ESG ratings are independent of Oppenheimer's stock ratings and are not
taken into consideration when assigning a rating. For full details about Refinitiv's ESG scores, please click here
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As a % of Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
COGS 78.7% 87.5% 92.1% 88.0% 84.6% 70.4% 75.2% 80.6% 87.9% 82.0% 79.1% 90.8% 84.8% 91.1% 70.6% 70.0% 69.6% 79.8% 69.2%
Sales & marketing 40.9% 39.6% 47.8% 35.9% 25.9% 29.5% 40.7% 52.0% 64.5% 61.3% 62.9% 65.2% 63.5% 50.7% 66.2% 68.5% 70.1% 67.3% 62.3%
Research & development 18.2% 4.2% 3.2% 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
General & Administrative 60.7% 34.3% 27.7% 20.4% 20.3% 15.4% 14.6% 28.9% 25.6% 15.7% 11.7% 13.6% 16.1% 8.7% 16.1% 14.5% 13.0% 13.7% 13.0%
Tax Rate 0.9% 6.0% 2.1% -13.5% -12.6% -3.7% 2.1% 8.8% 6.5% 6.5% -4.3% -9.7% -1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.3% 5.0%
Net Margin -119.6% -79.3% -81.7% -66.8% -54.1% -34.2% -45.5% -68.0% -61.0% -53.2% -55.0% -73.9% -60.9% -31.6% -71.6% -70.5% -71.4% -69.8% -64.9%
Y-Y-Revenue x 262.7% 53.4% 49.0% 16.7% 43.5% 13.0% 7.4% 58.9% 121.3% 109.2% 35.8% 74.6% 48.1% 9.0% 8.9% 9.4% 11.0% 19.1%
- EPS 2431.1% -98.0% -1570.3% 32.0% -79.5% -6.5% -649.0% -68.8% 171.5% -57.4%
Q-Q-Revemue x 4.5% 19.8% 9.4% -0.8% 13.9% -11.8% 9.4% -0.4%
- EPS -86.6% 71.8% -157.7% -259.5% 126.5% -64.3% -207.6% -200.9%
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Operating leases growth Y-o-Y 45% 35% 45% 40% 56% 26% 26% 67% 100% 91% 28% 68% 40% 20% 31% 56% 36% 29%
Incentives growth Y-o-Y 91% 58% 36% 31% 132% -66% 17% 244% 198% 201% -7% 96% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Operating leases and incentives GM % 21% 13% 5% 5% 16% 40% 28% 20% 8% 19% 25% 7% 15% 35% 35% 35% 35% 31% 35%
Solar energy systems sales Y-o-Y 112% 154% -11% 64% 53% -5% 25% 103% 145% 61% 75% -4% 6% -18% -36% -17% 11%
Solar energy product sales Y-o-Y 50% 16% 17% -8% 10% -9% 76% 198% 83% 31% 86% 2% -10% 2% 2% -2% 2%
Solar energy systems and products sales GM % 12% 10% 16% 15% 17% 22% 18% 16% 17% 17% 11% 15% 13% 21% 22% 23% 4% 23%
Days Inventory - 50.3 92.7 61.6 76.9 54.2 147.3 138.9 89.6 94.5 116.6 116.7 135.5 112.0 94.5 116.6 116.7 108.7 123.8
Days A/R 114.8 79.4 72.2 48.5 77.2 31.9 33.0 37.7 34.1 37.0 36.9 30.5 33.1 36.8 37.0 36.9 30.5 32.6 32.6
Accounts Receivables as a % of Annualized Sales 31.5% 21.8% 19.8% 13.3% 0.2 8.7% 9.1% 10.3% 9.4% 10.2% 10.1% 8.4% 9.1% 10.1% 10.2% 10.1% 8.4% 8.9% 8.9%
Days Payable 153.2 107.5 135.5 60.4 93.8 89.6 126.2 101.8 65.6 76.8 91.0 66.3 77.0 77.6 77.0 77.0 77.0 71.7 81.7
Accounts Payable as a % of Annualized Sales 33.0% 25.8% 34.2% 14.5% 21.7% 17.3% 26.0% 22.5% 15.8% 17.3% 19.8% 16.5% 17.9% 19.4% 17.3% 19.8% 16.5% 15.7% 15.5%
Depreciation as a % of cumulative MW deployed 11.4% 12.6% 12.0% 11.9% 11.3% 8.0% 6.7% 6.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 7.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 6.7% 7.0%
Cash Conversion Cycle (38.4) 22.1 29.5 49.7 60.3 (3.4) 54.1 74.8 58.1 54.6 62.4 80.9 91.6 71.2 54.4 76.5 70.2 69.6 74.7
Current Ratio (x) 1.03 1.57 1.42 1.51 1.51 1.24 1.38 1.26 1.59 1.25 1.24 1.53 1.53 1.60 1.37 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.39
Quick Ratio (x) 0.94 1.29 1.04 1.09 1.01 0.79 0.66 0.68 0.97 0.75 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.78 0.69 0.48 0.52 0.52 0.58
Debt/Equity Ratio (x) 1.17 1.04 1.07 1.14 1.17 1.66 1.96 0.77 0.82 0.87 0.94 0.99 0.99 1.06 1.09 1.15 1.23 1.23 1.64
Book Value/Share 22.77 $ 18.28 $ 11.97 $ 9.03 $ 11.77 $ 11.65 $ 11.44 $ 48.20 $ 33.85 $ 33.73 $ 33.68 $ 33.36 $ 33.73 $ 33.79 $ 33.83 $ 33.84 $ 33.89 $ 33.89 $ 32.76
Tangible Book Value/Share $ 22.77 $ 16.00 $ 10.38 $ 8.17 $ 10.94 $ 10.86 $ 10.62 $ 17.54 $ 12.72 $ 12.78 $ 12.91 $ 12.72 $ 12.86 $ 13.28 $ 13.32 $ 13.33 $ 13.37 $ 13.37 $ 12.25
Net Cash/Share $ (90.72) $ (53.89) $ (31.19) $ (22.39) $ (22.37) $ (27.58) $ (32.69) $ (45.74) $ (32.98) $ (34.64) $ (36.92) $ (38.86) $ (39.29) $ (41.75) $ (42.92) $ (46.17) $ (48.57) $ (48.57) $ (60.54)
Debt/Share $ 26.71 $ 18.93 $ 12.83 $ 10.28 $ 13.73 $ 19.33 $ 22.42 $ 37.00 $ 27.85 $ 29.26 $ 31.51 $ 33.05 $ 33.42 $ 35.89 $ 36.93 $ 39.06 $ 41.81 $ 41.81 $ 53.82
Interest Expense $ 11.75 $ 27.52 $ 33.24 $ 53.24 $ 70.52 $ 131.77 $ 174.25 $ 230.60 $ 74.27 $ 75.00 $ 89.10 $ 89.10 $ 327.70 $ 81.29 $ 89.24 $ 92.03 $ 97.69 $ 371.21 $ 464.94
Implied Interest Rate (annualized) 7.0% 11.5% 6.2% 5.9% 5.4% 7.5% 7.7% 4.8% 5.6% 5.3% 5.8% 5.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.4% 4.3%
Capex as % of sales 595% 215% 200% 163% 153% 107% 98% 105% 107% 100% 100% 112% 105% 86% 161% 159% 158% 148% 146%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) $ (302) $ (436) $ (713) $ (891) $ (873) $ (874) $ (1,045) $ (1,288) $ (543) $ (570) $ (621) $ (770) $ (2,503) $ (684) $ (720) $ (1,038) $ (881) $ (3,424) $ (3,706)
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SunRun Inc. RUN (OUTPERFORM) - $70.00
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Rating and Price Target History for: SunRun Inc. (RUN) as of 05-03-2022
08/08/19 02/28/20 08/11/20 11/06/20 05/06/21 08/06/21 11/05/21
O:$22 O:$23 O:$55 O:$65 O:$67 O:$69 O:$70
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020 2021 2022
All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer & Co.
Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price histories,
please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004, Attention: Equity Research Department,
Business Manager.
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Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend
payments, and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its
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averages due to a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/
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