Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
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Lagesh M A Sk Gupta
ICFAI Business School International Crops Research Institute for Semi Arid Tropics
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A study was carried out on two important dryland crops, i.e., post-rainy season sorghum and pearl
millet which are staples in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Gujarat states of India. Both post-rainy
(rabi) season sorghum and pearl millet are mainly grown under low rainfall regimes as they are drought
tolerant and are prized for grain quality and fodder.
The present study is undertaken to quantify the varietal attributes preferred by the fanners for post-
rainy sorghum and pearl millet using conjoint analysis technique. With this knowledge, researchers can
focus on the most important features of seeds and design a variety that is most likely to gain acceptance of
the target buyers. Further the utility attributes derived from the analysis are used to simulate preferences
for new improved cultivars for both the crops that will identify the most preferred variety. The study
would thus help in screening new improved cultivars of these crops for preferred attributes and overall
preference.
Keywords: Trait preferences, crop variety attributes, utility scores.
JEL: Q16, Q33.
INTRODUCTION
Researchers are interested in knowing the attributes of crop varieties that are
important to farmers to enable hassle free adoption. Thus, it is very important for
researchers to be able to design their crop varieties based on preferred traits and
position them to release successful crop varieties (Baidu-Forson et al., 1997).
All individuals including farmers while making a decision to purchase a good or a
service evaluate attributes of all the competing products before making a final choice.
This process is not explicit and the main consideration is perceived value
maximisation. In many instances, farmers' varietal preferences based on attributes of
a variety are ignored or based on some assumed requirement that eventually leads to
rejection or non-adoption of varieties. Hence, uncovering the value assigned to each
*Assistant Professor, University of Horticultural Sciences, Bangalore, **Principal Scientist, Scientific Officer,
Senior Scientists, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Patancheru, 502 324 (Andhra
Pradesh), tProfessor and Head, Department of Dairy Economics and Business Management, KVAFSU, Bangalore
and Assistant Professor, Mahatma Phule Krishi Vidyapeeth, Rahuri, (Maharashtra).
This paper was prepared under Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement (HOPE) project funded
by Bill and Milenda Gates Foundation (BMGF). The funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is
gratefully acknowledged.
UNDERSTANDING TRAIT PREFERENCES OF FARMERS FOR POST-RAINY SORGHUM 131
II
METHODOLOGY
TABLE 1. SAMPLE VILLAGES AND SAMPLE SIZE FOR POST-RAINY SEASON SORGHUM AND
PEARL MILLET
Villages Villages
Sholapur district Sample size Jodhpur district Sample size
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Mandrup 14 Sawant Kakuan 09
Bandrakote 16 Mahalna 38
Kumbhari 25 Kasti 12
Nimbargi 09 Jointra 10
Valsang 18 Rathiki Dhani 01
Vinchur 18 Purkhawas 06
Lunawas Khara 24
Total 100 Total 100
Conjoint analysis as a technique is used for estimating the value people place on
the attributes or features that define products (Louviere, 1991). The goal is to
understand what specific values of attributes producers consider while making
decision pertaining to seed purchase. In the current study, the attribute specific values
area analysed for post-rainy season sorghum and pearl millet. CA is also used to
predict choices for future products and services. It assumes that a product can be
"broken down" into its component attributes (Hair et al., 2006; Rao, 2008). For
example, a plant variety has attributes such as high yield, stover quality, grain size
and shape, and grain color. The values that individuals place on a crop variety are
equivalent to the sum of the utilities they derive from all the attributes making up the
crop variety. Further, CA assumes that the preference for a product and the likelihood
to purchase it is in proportion to the utility an individual gains from the product.
Unlike traditional approaches where respondents are asked to estimate how much
value they place on each attribute, CA attempts to break the task into a series of
choices or ratings. These choices or ratings, when taken together, allows to compute
the relative importance of each of the attributes studied (Mafuru et al., 2007).Further,
markets continue to change as new varieties enter; new varieties are introduced, etc.
In such instances, in the traditional approach a new survey needs to be conducted
UNDERSTANDING TRAIT PREFERENCES OF FARMERS FOR POST-RAINY SORGHUM 133
every time a major change takes place in the market to find out how people feel about
the changes and how it will affect their purchases. With CA, the new product or
changes to existing products can be incorporated into the simulation model to obtain
predictions of how buyers will respond to the changes. In most markets, these models
can maintain their accuracy for two or three years before you need to conduct a mini-
version of the original study to determine if any adjustments must be made to the
model. Instead of "stated importance", conjoint analysis uses "derived importance"
values for each attribute or feature. The ability to use the results to develop market
simulations models to evaluate existing varieties into future is the other advantage of
using CA technique.
Application of CA technique is done in three phases: collection of trade-off data
through a survey, statistical analysis of the data, and simulation. Depending upon the
type of conjoint survey conducted, statistical methods like ordinary least squares
regression, weighted least squares regression, and logit analysis are used to translate
respondents' answers into importance values or utilities (Adane et al., 2012).
In the present study conjoint analysis is carried out to evaluate the underlying
responses that the respondents consciously or sub-consciously place on each attribute.
For example, a rational farmer growing post-rainy season sorghum will prefer yield
levels of 1.5 tons to 1.0 tons per hectare if all other things are equal (quality, features,
etc.). What researchers do not know about each farmer is his or her level of
sensitivity to the yield difference. A fanner who always chooses variety with better
stover quality over variety with average stover quality, regardless of yield level,
obviously places more value on stover quality than yield level. CA allows the
researchers to compute the relative value between these options and all other options
considered in the research design.
Listing many attributes for the analysis can greatly increase the burden on the
respondents and therefore reduce the accuracy of the response. Similarly, too few
attributes can result in critical information missing from the model. Hence, it is
important to think critically to identify and list key attributes. In addition to the
selection of attributes, individual levels within each attribute are also important. For
an attribute like yield, the attribute levels would be specific points like 2 to 3 metric
tons per hectare, 1 to 2 metric tons and less than 1 metric ton per hectare and for
attributes like color, the attribute levels might be yellow, grey and white. Hence, there
must be a balance between too many and too few options. Also, attribute levels must
encompass all of the products that exist or expected in near future through research.
The attributes considered in the study have been identified based on discussion
with the plant breeders (sorghum and pearl millet), agronomists, economists,
sociologists and other scientists working on the crop at International Crops Research
Institute for the Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad. Yield is an important
134 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
attribute that all farmers will target as it would have a bearing on the commercial
viability of the crop variety. Currently the best performance on the farmers' field is 2
metric tons per hectare. Hence it was taken as the upper limit. Dairying is an
important activity in the dry tracts, hence farmers growing post rainy season sorghum
and pearl millet would use the crop residue or stover as fodder and enhance their
incomes through milk production. Since both post rainy sorghum and pearl millet are
essentially dryland crops, drought tolerance would be a minimum requirement. Days
to maturation is deemed to be an important attribute as the most severe droughts (25
per cent of seasons) were when stress began before flowering resulting in failure of
grain setting. Ideally, farmers would prefer to have moisture till 65 days so that
flowering is complete. Grain size is considered as other important attribute from
marketing point of view as it fetches higher price. Grain color and grain shape are the
other important market attributes that the producer concentrates in order to get better
market acceptance (Table 2).
TABLE 2. ATTRIBUTES AND THEIR LEVELS FOR POST RAINY SEASON SORGHUM AND
PEARL MILLET
Attributes Levels
(1) Post rainy season sorghum Pearl millet
(2) (3)
Yield > 2 tonnes per hectare 2.5 to 3 metric tonnes/ha
1 to 2 tonnes/ha 1 to 1.5 metric tonnes/ha
< 1 tonne/ha < 1 tonne/ha
Stover Sweet and palatable Sweet and palatable
Average palatability Average palatability
Plant colour Pigmented Not applicable
Tan
Drought tolerance High High
Medium Low
Maturation of crop (flowering) 60 to 65 days 60 to 65 days
65 to 72 days 65 to 72 days
Grain size Large (25 gm/1000) Large (20 gin/1000)
Medium (10 gm/1000) Medium (7.5 to 15 gm/1000)
Small ( <8 gm/1000) Small (<5 gm/1000)
Grain colour Yellow Grey
White White
Grain shape Not applicable Obviate
Globular
Hexagonal
Utility, which is subjective and unique to each individual, is the conceptual basis
for measuring consumer demand in economic theory. Economic theory states that
utility is interpreted as a numerical measurement of the satisfaction derived from the
consumption of alternative bundles of commodities. In recent years, the theory of
consumer utility has gone beyond the traditional economic theory of consumer
demand. According to Lancaster's model of consumer behaviour, the theory on
UNDERSTANDING TRAIT PREFERENCES OF FARMERS FOR POST-RAINY SORGHUM 135
preferences states that goods are valued for the attributes they possess, and that
differentiated products are merely different bundles of attributes (Lancaster, 1966).
Importance Scores
where RANGE 1' is the highest minus lowest utility for factor i.
The importance for each factor is calculated separately for each individual farmer
in the study and is then averaged for all the farmers.
Market Simulation
Sorghum
sample farmers. This is followed by Dagadi (9 per cent) and Phule Chitra and Phule
Vashuda with three per cent each.
With regard to the sourcing of seed for cultivation, about 66 per cent of the
sample farmers use their own seeds for sowing which is not a healthy practice from
crop improvement point of view. The other important sources of seed were Agri-
clinics and Government agencies. A variety of crops are grown by the farmers under
rainfed conditions in the study villages. Post rainy season sorghum was the most
predominant crop grown by as much as 87 per cent of the farmers (Table 3). The
other important crops grown in the region were groundnut and pigeon pea as sole
crops but their importance can be gauged by the fact that each crop is grown by less
than 5 per cent of the farmers, testifying to the overwhelming presence of sorghum.
TABLE 3. CROPS GROWN UNDER RAINFED CONDITIONS IN SHOLAPUR DISTRICT
In irrigated areas, sugarcane was the most important crop grown by 59 per cent of
the farmers. The other important irrigated crops grown were chilly, vegetables and
wheat.
The important constraints faced by the famers in the study area are documented in
Table 4. Farmers were asked the frequency of each constraint and the degree of
impact. The impact was measured on a hedonic scale which ranges from 1 for mild to
5 for severe. The constraints are related to moisture stress, yield variability, labour
scarcity, marketing, cost of production, inputs and their poor quality and credit
availability. Moisture stress was a universal problem indicated by almost all the
TABLE 4. PRODUCTION CONCERNS OF THE FARMERS GROWING POST RAINY SEASON SORGHUM
farmers which has high impact as well. The next in importance was yield variability
related to moisture stress followed by labour scarcity. Labour scarcity could
indirectly be related to moisture stress which leads to out migration resulting in
labour shortage. But the impact factor of labour shortage is moderate (2.86)
compared to moisture stress and yield variability. High cost of production was
another major constraint with an impact factor of 3. Input availability and credit
availability were the other problems faced by the farmers of the region.
A cursory look at the socioeconomic profile of the sample farmers revealed that
on an average the sample farmers had studied up to the eighth grade owned about
3.65 acres and had experience of 29 years in farming.
The farmers growing post rainy sorghum were asked to indicate their preference
with regard to crop yield, stover quality, plant colour, drought tolerance, time taken to
maturation, (early maturation will help the crop to withstand late season drought)
grain size and grain colour. The first five parameters are the production parameters
while the latter two were the market parameters. The importance assigned by the
sorghum farmer to each attribute are estimated using conjoint analysis. The utility
derived by the farmer from the attributes of post rainy season sorghum are presented
in Table 5. The importance score depicted in Figure 1. Perusal of the figure reveals
that farmers in the study area assigned the highest importance to yield (22.42 per
cent), followed by grain size (20.85 per cent) and grain colour (18.71 per cent). The
other traits like stover quality, maturation and plant colour had an importance value
TABLE 5. UTILITIES ATTRIBUTES OF POST RAINY SEASON SORGHUM FOR THE FARMER
25.00
20.00
E 15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Yield Stover Plant Colour Drought Maturation Grain eime Grain *Dolour
Figure 1. Importance Attached to Selected Varietal Traits Post Rainy Season
Sorghum by Farmers in Maharashtra
of around 10 per cent each. Drought tolerance is taken as given for the sorghum crop
in general and hence the farmers did not specifically look for this attribute in the
variety.
Among the attributes, yield was the most important and yield level of over 2 tons
per hectare was desired by the farmers. For grain size, large grain size was preferred
with a grain weight of over 10 gm per 1000 grains and in this the white coloured
grain was preferred to enhance the look of the cooked "rotis". Large grain size was
preferred as it increased the grain weight and reduced the chaff percentage. Early
maturation of less than 65 days helped the crop to withstand late drought and also
withstand moisture stress during the late season. The farmers preferred a plant with
green stalk over tan and a variety that can withstand drought. Sweet and palatable
fodder was also a desired trait in the variety as it had a very high utility score of
0.6597 which was next only to grain yield levels of 2 tonnes / ha and more (1.1832),
grain colour (0.8428) and grain size (0.6716).
Simulations
Some of the existing varieties including new varieties recently sown on farmers'
fields have been included in the simulations in the backdrop of the values attached to
the attributes by the farmers growing post rainy season sorghum. The findings on
predicted probabilities under three different probability choice models for the seven
varieties across the 100 subjects in this study are presented in Table 6.
From the result, it appears that Parbhani Jyoti is the most popular of the simulated
varieties as about 44 per cent of the sample farmers would prefer it. This is followed
by M-35-1 (Maldandi) with a maximum utility of 19 per cent. In addition to these
UNDERSTANDING TRAIT PREFERENCES OF FARMERS FOR POST-RAINY SORGHUM 139
two varieties Dagadi and Phule Chitra should meet with good demand. Akola Kranti
and PhuleYashoda do not have attributes that meet farmers preferences.
Pearl Millet
Pearl millet is by far the most preferred crop in rainfed conditions while moong
and moth (from green gram family) were other crops of some importance in the study
area. Among the preferred varieties of pearl millet, HHB 67 was the most popular
variety with almost 70 per cent of the farmers growing it. The next in importance was
RHB 177, with a patronage of 21 per cent of the famers (Table 7). The important
crops grown in the irrigated tracts were cumin, cotton and wheat.
TABLE 7. PEARL MILLET VARIETIES GROWN IN JODHPUR, RAJASTHAN
Variety Total
(1) (2)
HHB 67 70
RHB 177 21
RHB 121 6
Pioneer 2
Proagro 1
Grand Total 100
The constraints faced by the pearl millet farmers will give inkling on their
requirement with respect to crop technology. Of the main constraints faced, moisture
stress was the top in the list with a high impact of 4.70 out of 5. Lack of credit
facilities, yield variability and non-availability of suitable pearl millet varieties in the
region were the other major constraints faced by the pearl millet farmers (Table 8).
Like for sorghum an attempt has been made to quantify the features/ traits of
pearl millet preferred by the farmers. The varietal traits identified in consultation with
the pearl millet crop breeders at ICRISAT were yield, stover quality, drought
tolerance, ear head maturation duration, grain size, grain colour and grain shape.
140 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
TABLE 8. PRODUCTION AND MARKETING CONSTRAINTS FACED BY THE PEARL MILLET FARMERS
Constraints Total
(1) (2)
Moisture stress 4.70
Lack of credit facilities 3.50
Yield variability 3.06
Lack of proper varieties for region 2.88
Fodder availability 2.75
Poor marketing 2.51
Labour availability 2.41
Lack of proper extension service 2.30
High cost of inputs 2.28
Poor quality of inputs 2.19
Lack of availability of inputs 2.03
Within each varietal trait the important levels were identified and conjoint
analysis was carried out on data from a sample of 100 farmers. The specific
importance of the levels of each trait is measured in terms of utilities is presented in
Table 9. Farmers derive the highest utility from an yield level of 2.5 to 3 metric tons
per hectare and prefer a medium grain size of around 7.5 gm/ 1000 grain with a utility
score of 0.304, as well as a grain which is obviate in shape. Unlike in sorghum they
preferred a variety that produced grain of grey colour and wanted stover to be sweet
and palatable. The model yielded a Kendall's tau and Pearsons R of 0.68 and 0.90,
respectively.
The results of the importance score are presented in Figure 2. From the figure it
is clear that pearl millet farmers are primarily interested in yield levels and grain size
UNDERSTANDING TRAIT PREFERENCES OF FARMERS FOR POST-RAINY SORGHUM 141
with importance scores of around 20 per cent each. Grain shape, grain colour and
stover quality were next in order of importance with values of 18 per cent, 12 per cent
and 11 per cent respectively. Drought tolerance and maturation time were not
considered important as it is perhaps taken for granted that pearl millet is inherently
tolerant to moisture stress conditions.
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Yield Stover Drought Maturation Grain size Grain colour Grain shape
Simulations
Some of the existing pearl millet varieties have been analysed in the backdrop of
the values attached to each of the attributes by the pearl millet farmers. The results
are presented in Table 10 for the five varieties with the predicted probabilities of
choosing each of the simulation cases as the most preferred one, under three different
probability-of-choice models. From the results it appears that Pioneer 86M86 and
RHB 121 are the most popular varieties as of the simulated varieties as about 22 per
cent of the sample farmers would prefer each. This is followed by HHB 67 Improved
and RHB 177 with a maximum utility of 19.50 per cent. In addition to this
Proagro9444 should meet with good demand. Thus, all the varieties / hybrids seem to
have good value to the farmers.
IV
CONCLUSION
Preference for drought tolerance and maturation were taken for granted for both
post-rainy season sorghum and pearl millet as these grown in low rainfall regimes.
High yield, palatable fodder, large grain size (over 10 gm/1000 grain) and white grain
colour were the most preferred traits by farmers growing post-rainy season sorghum.
The utility values were the highest for yield followed by stover quality. Breeding for
improved dual purpose varieties of post-rainy season sorghum to be the focus of the
breeders. Over 75 per cent of the farmers preferred growing Maldandi and Dagadi
varieties of post-rainy season sorghum as they give the farmers highest utility. These
two varieties are grown on farmer's field for the past two decades. Results from
simulation analysis with respect to existing varieties grown by farmers revealed a
superior preference for Parbhani Jyoti over Maldandi and Dagadi. Thus, it is
important to ensure seed availability of these improved varieties through extension
efforts and increase their adoption.
For pearl millet, in general farmers desired high yields and medium sized grain
size of 7 to 10 gm per 1000 grain and obviate shape. Both public and private released
varieties/hybrids of pearl millet (HHB 67, RHB 177, Pioneer 86M86, Proagro 9444)
and those in pipeline are found to fulfill the farmer trait preferences indicated by
utility scores. However, access to improved seed is seen as a constraint. Hence, the
delivery mechanism and extension support system has to be strengthened to improve
access to improved seed.
NOTE
1. India is the largest producer of pearl millet in Asia both in terms of both area and production.
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