ITS and Traffic Management: M. Papageorgiou
ITS and Traffic Management: M. Papageorgiou
ITS and Traffic Management: M. Papageorgiou
14
Copyright © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
DOI: 10.1016/S0927-0507(06)14011-6
Chapter 11
ITS and Traffic Management
M. Papageorgiou
Dynamic Systems and Simulation Laboratory, Technical University of Crete,
731 00, Chania, Crete, Greece
E-mail: markos@dssl.tuc.gr
M. Ben-Akiva
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
E-mail: mba@mit.edu
J. Bottom
Charles River Associates, Inc., Boston, MA, USA
E-mail: jbottom@crai.com
P.H.L. Bovy
Transportation and Traffic Planning Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences,
Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
E-mail: p.h.l.bovy@tudelft.nl
S.P. Hoogendoorn
Transportation and Traffic Planning Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences,
Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
E-mail: s.p.hoogendoorn@tudelft.nl
N.B. Hounsell
Transportation Research Group, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment,
University of Southampton, Hants, SO17 1BJ, UK
E-mail: N.B.Hounsell@soton.ac.uk
A. Kotsialos
School of Engineering, University of Durham, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
E-mail: apostolos.kotsialos@durham.ac.uk
M. McDonald
Transportation Research Group, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment,
University of Southampton, Hants, SO17 1BJ, UK
E-mail: M.Mcdonald@soton.ac.uk
1 Introduction
The observed traffic conditions on road and highway networks result from
a quite complex-to-describe confrontation of supply and demand. Supply is
715
716 M. Papageorgiou et al.
mainly determined from the available road and highway infrastructure, most
notably its capacity. Demand is the collective outcome of individual driver de-
cisions regarding the effectuation (or not) of a trip, the choice of transportation
mode, of departure time, of the route to be followed, etc. Traffic congestion is
observed in increasing levels on road and highway networks around the world,
with detrimental consequences for traffic efficiency, safety as well as for the
environment. Traffic congestion affects the nominal capacity of the available
infrastructure leading to a vicious cycle of further congestion increase, fur-
ther infrastructure degradation, and so forth. In fact, the traffic throughput
measured in congested road or highway networks is usually well below the
nominal network capacity. Traffic control measures and strategies described
in this chapter aim at maintaining the available infrastructure capacity close
to nominal levels, protecting the traffic networks from the detrimental effects
of oversaturation and even gridlock. In this sense, traffic control is deemed to
mainly act on the supply side of the basic traffic equation. Other operational
measures have been employed in an attempt to reduce congestion by influenc-
ing the manifest traffic demand; this includes various forms of administrative
restrictions or of demand management (road pricing being the most promi-
nent), which, however, are not addressed in this chapter.
The chapter consists of 4 main overview sections, Section 2 presenting an
overview of traffic flow modeling advancements, Section 3 addressing the issue
of route guidance and information systems, while Sections 4 and 5 are con-
cerned with specific road and motorway network control systems, respectively.
Fig. 1. Examples of the fundamental relations between flow, density, and speed.
the different properties of the road (width of the lanes, grade), flow composi-
tion (percentage of trucks, fraction of commuters, experienced drivers, etc.),
external conditions (weather and ambient conditions), traffic regulations, etc.
Traffic flow observations however show that many data are not on the fun-
damental diagram. While some of these points can be explained by stochastic
fluctuations (e.g., vehicles have different sizes, drivers have different desired
speeds and following distances), a number of researchers have suggested that
these differences are structural and stem from the dynamic properties of traffic
flow. That is, they reflect so-called transient states (i.e., changes from conges-
tion to free flow (acceleration phase) or from free flow to congestion (deceler-
ation phase)) of traffic flow.
Several authors have studied the nonlinear or even chaotic-like behavior of
the traffic system (cf. Bovy and Hoogendoorn, 2000; Pozybill, 1998). Among
these behaviors are hysteresis and metastable or unstable behavior of traf-
fic flow. The latter implies that in heavy traffic a critical disturbance may be
amplified and develop into a traffic jam (spontaneous phase-transitions). In il-
lustration, empirical experiments performed in Forbes et al. (1958), and Edie
and Foote (1958, 1960) have shown that a disturbance at the foot of an upgrade
propagates from one vehicle to the next, while being amplified until at some
point a vehicle came to a complete stop. This instability effect implies that once
the density crosses some critical value, traffic flow becomes rapidly more con-
gested without any obvious reasons. More empirical evidence of this instability
and start–stop wave formation can be found in among others (Verweij, 1985;
Ferrari, 1989; Leutzbach, 1991). In Kerner and Rehborn (1997) and Kerner
(1999) it is empirically shown that local jams can persist for several hours, while
maintaining their form and characteristic properties. In other words, the sta-
ble complex structure of a traffic jam can and does exist on motorways.1 These
findings show that traffic flow has some chaotic-like properties, implying that
1 Apart from the formation of stop-and-go waves and localized structures, a hysteric phase-transition
from free-traffic to synchronized flow that mostly appears near on-ramps is described in Kerner and
Ch. 11. ITS and Traffic Management 719
microscopic disturbances in the flow can result in the on-set of local traffic jams
persisting for several hours.
Having said this, it should be clear that traffic flow shows some interesting
phenomena, which must be reflected correctly by the different models that
have been proposed. The remainder of this section focuses on these different
models, while discussing their most important properties.
Table 1.
Overview of traffic flow model classification
Rehborn (1997). In addition, transitions from synchronized flow to the jammed traffic state occur in
congestion, upstream of the bottleneck.
720 M. Papageorgiou et al.
models assume that a driver will only respond to the one vehicle (the leader)
that is driving in the same lane, directly in front of her.
When the number of driver–vehicle units on the road is very small, the driver
can freely choose her speed given her preferences and abilities, the roadway
conditions, curvature, prevailing speed-limits, etc. In any case, there will be
little reason for the driver to adapt her speed to the other road-users. The
target-speed of the driver is the so-called free speed. In real life, the free
speed will vary from one driver to another, but also the free speed of a sin-
gle driver may change over time. Most microscopic models assume however
that the free speeds have a constant value that is driver-specific. When traf-
fic becomes denser, drivers will no longer be able to choose the speed freely,
since they will not always be able to overtake a slower vehicle. The driver will
need to adapt her speed to the prevailing traffic conditions, i.e., the driver is
following. In the remainder, we will discuss some of these car-following mod-
els. Models for the lateral tasks, such as deciding to perform a lane-change
and gap-acceptance, will not be discussed in this section in detail; a concise
framework of lane changing modeling is provided by Ahmed et al. (1996).
the gap in front of them to become too large, so that other drivers might en-
ter it. At the same time, the drivers will generally be inclined to keep a safe
distance.
Stimulus-response models assume that drivers control their acceleration.
The well-known model proposed in Chandler et al. (1958) is based on the in-
tuitive hypothesis that a driver’s acceleration is proportional to the relative
speed vi−1 − vi :
ai (t + Tr ) = v̇i (t) = α vi−1 (t) − vi (t) (4)
where Tr again denotes the overall reaction time, and α denotes the sensitivity.
Based on field experiments, conducted to quantify the parameter values for
the reaction time Tr and the sensitivity α, it was concluded that α depended on
the distance between the vehicles: when the vehicles were close together, the
sensitivity was high, and vice versa. The following specification was proposed
by
α0
α= (5)
xi−1 (t) − xi (t)
One of the main aspects of a dynamic model is its stability, i.e., whether
small disturbances will damp out or be amplified. For the stimulus-response
model (4), two types of stability can be distinguished, namely local stability
(stability of response of a driver on the leading vehicle i − 1), and asymptotic
stability (propagation of disturbances along a platoon). Asymptotic stability is
of more practical importance than local stability. If a platoon of vehicles is as-
ymptotically unstable, a small disturbance in the movement of the first vehicle
is amplified as it is passed over to the next vehicle, which in turn can lead to
dangerous situations. Let us briefly consider both kinds of stability. The local
and asymptotic stability of the model depends on the sensitivity α and the re-
action time Tr , i.e., the model is locally stable if C = αTr < π/2. Asymptotic
stability requires C = αTr < 1/2. Note that local stability is less critical than as-
ymptotic stability because the stimulus-response model becomes unstable only
for (unrealistically) large response times or large sensitivity values.
This simple model has several undesirable and unrealistic properties. For
one, vehicles tend to get dragged along when the vehicle in front is moving at
a higher speed. Furthermore, when the distance si (t) is very large, the speeds
can become unrealistically high. To remedy this deficiency, sensitivity α can be
defined as a decreasing function of the distance. In more general terms, the
sensitivity thus can be defined as follows
α0 (vi (t + Tr ))m
α= (6)
(xi−1 (t) − xi (t))l
Equation (6) implies that the following vehicle adjusts its speed vi (t) propor-
tionally to both distances and speed differences with delay Tr . The extent to
which this occurs depends on the values of α, l, and m. Combining Equations
(4) and (6), and integrating the result, relations between the speed vi (t + Tr )
722 M. Papageorgiou et al.
and the distance headway xi−1 (t)−xi (t) can be determined. Assuming station-
ary traffic conditions, the following relation between the equilibrium speed U
and the density k results
(l−1) 1/(1−m)
0 k
U(k) = U 1 − (7)
kj
for m = 1 and l = 1; k = 1/(xi−1 − xi ) denotes the density (average number
of vehicles per unit roadway length); kj is the so-called jam-density (density at
which U = 0); U 0 is the mean free speed (at k = 0). We refer to Leutzbach
(1988) for a more general expression of (7).
An alternative approach was proposed in Helly (1959), which includes an
additional term describing the tendency of drivers to maintain a certain desired
following distance Si (t):
ai (t + Tr ) = α1 vi−1 (t) − vi (t) + α2 xi−1 (t) − xi (t) − Si (t) (8)
where
Si (t) = β0 + β1 vi (t) + β2 ai (t) where βj 0 (9)
Car-following models have been mainly applied to single lane traffic (e.g.,
tunnels, cf. Newell (1961)) and traffic stability analysis (Herman et al., 1959;
May, 1990). The parameters of the model (7) have been estimated using
macroscopic and microscopic data by a large number of researchers. It should
be noted that no generally applicable set of parameter estimates has been
found so far, i.e., estimates are site-specific. An overview of parameter esti-
mates can be found in Brackstone and McDonald (1999).
Optimal speed models. So far, the models considered mainly describe the car-
following task where the follower (in time) will aim to drive at the speed of the
leader, at a certain distance gap. Of course, there can be choices of the desired
speed other than the speed of the leader. In Bando et al. (1995) it is assumed
that the desired speed is a function of the distance between the vehicles under
consideration, i.e.,
Udes (xi−1 (t) − xi (t)) − vi (t)
ai (t) = (10)
Tr
where Udes (xi−1 − xi ) = U0 tanh(xi−1 − xi ).
2 When one relaxes the parallel update requirement, we generally do not speak of Cellular Automata
models. However, the term particle hopping model still applies (cf. Nagel, 1998).
Ch. 11. ITS and Traffic Management 725
Fuzzy logic-based models. The first application of fuzzy logic systems is due
to Kikuchi and Chakroborty (1992), aiming at fuzzifying the stimulus-response
model. The model was used to illustrate how a fuzzy logic system can be used
to describe car-following and local instability. More recent developments are
reported in Rekersbrink (1995) and Henn (1995).
Conservation of vehicles and the kinematic wave model. Assuming that the de-
pendent traffic flow variables (density, flow, speed) are differentiable functions
of time t and space x, the following partial differential equation represents the
fact that on a roadway, vehicles cannot be lost or created:
∂k ∂q
+ = r(x t) − s(x t) (11)
∂t ∂x
describing that the number of vehicles on a small part of the roadway of length
dx increases according to the balance of inflow and outflow at the boundaries
726 M. Papageorgiou et al.
(interfaces) x and x + dx, respectively, and the inflow r(x t) and outflow
s(x t) at on-ramps and off-ramps, respectively (source and sink terms). To-
gether with the fundamental relation q = ku, Equation (11) constitutes a
system of two independent equations and three unknown variables. Conse-
quently, to get a complete description of traffic dynamics, a third independent
model equation is needed.
In combining the fundamental relation Equation (1) with Equation (11),
a nonlinear first-order partial differential equation results: the kinematic wave
model (Lighthill and Whitham, 1955):
∂k ∂q ∂k ∂k dQ
+ = + c(k) = 0 where c(k) = (12)
∂t ∂x ∂t ∂x dk
Here c(k) denotes the so-called kinematic wave speed, describing the speed at
which small disturbances propagate through the traffic flow.
Generalized solutions to the kinematic wave model can be determined by
the method of characteristics, see, e.g., Logghe (2003). For the kinematic wave
model, it can be shown that characteristic curves are straight lines in the
(x t)-plane with slope c(k) that emanate from the boundary (i.e., at x = x0 or
t = t0 ) of the considered time–space region. Along the characteristics, den-
sities are conserved and are thus equal to the density at the point on the
boundary from which the characteristic emanates. When on this boundary
∂c(k)/∂x < 0, the characteristic curves will in time intersect ( focusing) and
a shockwave will result. The shock wave speed ω can be determined from the
shock wave equation (May, 1990):
q2 − q1
ω= (13)
k2 − k1
where (k1 q1 ) and (k2 q2 ) respectively denote the traffic conditions down-
stream and upstream of the shock S. Besides shockwaves, acceleration fans are
formed in case of discontinuities in the density, characterized by k(x t) >
k(y t) for x < y. These acceleration fans describe the way vehicles drive
away from a high-density region into a low-density region. A typical situation
in which this occurs, is a traffic light turning to green, where the acceleration
fan describes the way vehicles drive away from the formed vehicle queue.
The kinematic wave model can be solved efficiently either analytically or nu-
merically, and its properties and limitations are well understood. Amongst the
drawbacks of the model is the formation of shocks irrespective of the smooth-
ness of the initial conditions. Moreover, the kinematic wave model assumes
that the traffic speeds adapt to the stationary speed U(k) immediately (no
fluctuations around the equilibrium speed), and thus does not respect the fi-
nite reaction times and bounded acceleration possibilities of its constituent
elements. The latter drawback has been remedied in Lebacque (2002), by im-
posing additional constraints on the solutions of the kinematic wave model
prescribing the maximum acceleration of the cars. The kinematic wave model
is not able to predict stop-and-go waves with amplitude-dependent oscillation
Ch. 11. ITS and Traffic Management 727
times, which are quite common in real-life traffic flow (Verweij, 1985), nor is
traffic hysteresis (average headways of vehicles approaching a jam are smaller
than vehicles driving out of a jam, see Treiterer and Myers, 1974) described.
Traffic instability is also not captured by the kinematic wave model.
Recent improvements in the model are reported in Daganzo (1997, 2002a,
2002b), considering multiple lanes, as well as dividing the driver population
into different user-classes showing different driving characteristics. The con-
cept of motivation, indicating that passing drivers will temporarily accept
smaller headways, is also introduced.
Payne-type models. To relax the assumptions that the speeds cannot differ
from the stationary speed u = U(k), the latter expression has been replaced by
a dynamic equation for the speeds alongside the conservation of vehicle equa-
tion (Payne, 1971). Payne-like models can be derived from car-following laws.
Considering a driver at location xi (t), looking ahead to location
xεi = (1 − ε)(xi−1 − xi ) + ε(xi−2 − xi−1 ) where 0 ε 1 (14)
In Zhang (2003) the following expression for the speed vi of vehicle i is used
vi (t + Tr ) = U k xεi (t) t + β viε (t) − vi (t)
where viε (t) := u xεi (t) t (15)
U denotes the equilibrium speed as a function of the density, Tr denotes the
reaction time, and β is a dimensionless parameter. Using Taylor series expan-
sions (Zhang, 2003), the following dynamic expression for the mean speed
v(x t) is derived
∂u ∂u c 2 (k) ∂k U(k) − u ∂2 u
+ u + 2βc∗ (k) + = + μ(k) 2 (16)
∂t ∂x k ∂x Tr ∂x
where
dU
c∗ (k) = k and μ(k) = 2βTr c 2 (k) (17)
dk
denote the sound speed and the traffic viscosity, respectively.
From Equation (16), different factors can be identified that can be inter-
preted from driver behavior. The term (c 2 (k)/k)(∂k/∂x) denotes the effect
of driver anticipation, showing how drivers anticipate on downstream condi-
tions: in regions of increasing density, drivers will anticipate and reduce their
speeds accordingly. The relaxation term (U(k) − u)/Tr describes the smooth
adaptation of the speed u to an equilibrium state U(k), given the relaxation
time Tr ; under stationary conditions, we have u = U(k). The viscosity term
μ(k) ∂2 u/∂x2 reflects the influence of higher-order anticipation, i.e., the way
drivers react to changes in relative speeds viε (t) − vi (t).
For specific parameter choices, the general expression (16) can be reduced
to other models: the original model of Payne (1971) can be derived by choosing
728 M. Papageorgiou et al.
The most complex process here is probably the interaction process. Let us
briefly discuss how this term is determined from the following, simple behav-
ioral assumptions:
1. The “slow-down event” is instantaneous and occurs with a probability of
(1 − p(k)), where p denotes the so-called immediate overtaking prob-
ability, reflecting the event that a fast car catching up with a slow car
can immediately overtake to another lane, without needing to reduce its
speed.
2. The speed of the slow car is not affected by the encounter with the fast
car, whether the latter is able to overtake or not.
3. The lengths of the vehicles can be neglected.
4. Only two vehicle encounters are to be considered, multivehicle encoun-
ters are excluded.
The model of Prigogine and Herman has been criticized and improved by
Paveri-Fontana (1975). He considers a hypothetical scenario where a free-
flowing vehicle catches up with a slow moving queue, and considers two ex-
treme cases:
1. The incoming vehicle passes the whole queue as if it were one vehicle.
2. It consecutively passes each single car in the queue independently.
In Paveri-Fontana (1975) it is shown that the Prigogine and Herman formalism
reflects the second case, while the real-life situation falls between these two ex-
tremes. He also shows that the term reflecting the acceleration process yields
a desired speed distribution that is dependent on the local number of vehicles.
This is in contradiction to the well-accepted hypothesis that driver’s personality
is indifferent with respect to changing traffic conditions (the so-called person-
ality condition; cf. Daganzo, 1995). To remedy this deficiency, Paveri-Fontana
730 M. Papageorgiou et al.
generalized the PSD κ(x t v) by also including the distribution of the desired
speeds
where f˜(v v0 |x t) denotes the joint probability density function of speed v
and free speed v0 .
Other researchers have objected to the validity of the vehicular chaos as-
sumption underlying the expression for the effects of vehicle interactions. In
Munjal and Pahl (1969) it is argued that the interaction term “corresponds to
an approximation in which correlation between nearby drivers is neglected”,
being only valid in situations where no vehicles are platooning. This issue has
been remedied explicitly in Hoogendoorn and Bovy (1999) by distinguishing
between platooning and nonplatooning vehicles.
In Nelson et al. (1997) it is argued that plausible speed-density relations can
only be determined from the Prigogine–Herman model, based on the nontriv-
ial assumption that the underlying distribution of desired speeds is nonzero for
very small speeds. The situation when this assumption does not hold is investi-
gated in Nelson and Sopasakis (1998). It is found that at concentrations above
some critical value, there is a two-parameter family of solutions, and hence
a continuum of mean velocities for each concentration. This result holds for
both constant values of the passing probability and the relaxation time, and for
values that depend on concentration in the manner assumed by Prigogine and
Herman. It is hypothesized that this result reflects the well-known tendency
toward substantial scatter in observational data of traffic flow at high concen-
trations.
Paveri-Fontana model generalizations are reported in Hoogendoorn and
Bovy (1999), Hoogendoorn et al. (2002), and Helbing et al. (2001), where
gas-kinetic models for multiclass and multilane traffic flow including nonlo-
cal, forwardly directed interactions, effects of vehicle space requirements are
presented. These gas-kinetic models serve as the starting point to derive con-
tinuum models by application of the so-called method-of-moments. Another
multilane gas-kinetic model was proposed in Klar and Wegener (1999a, 1999b).
In Tampére et al. (2002) adaptive driver behavior is introduced into the gas-
kinetic modeling approach.
3.1 Introduction
empirical conclusions about its network level impacts to be drawn. Possible ex-
ceptions include high-volume corridors equipped with variable message signs,
and urban areas with real-time traffic condition reports. For example, using
data from the Washington, DC traffic information system (Wunderlich et al.,
2001) travelers with and without access to information on prevailing link tra-
versal times were simulated. Travelers were assumed to have a desired arrival
time at their destination, and to determine their path and departure time ac-
cordingly. The simulated travel experiences, in terms of travel times, on-time
arrival reliability, risk of lateness, and early and late schedule delays were com-
piled. It was found that guidance improved the various measures of travel time
reliability without significantly affecting average travel time itself.
This section reviews current knowledge about route guidance and informa-
tion systems. Although a distinction is sometimes made between prescriptive
guidance and descriptive information, both kinds of data will generally be re-
ferred to here as guidance. A particular set of guidance data disseminated at
a particular time will be called a message. Objectives and technological con-
straints that influence message content are discussed in Section 3.2.
Messages may be derived from static or dynamic information about the net-
work. Static systems provide fixed information about the network and may be
of use in tasks such as way-finding or preliminary trip planning; however, they
do not recognize actual traffic conditions. Static systems will not be further con-
sidered here. Dynamic RGIS can be classified as nonpredictive and predictive
systems. The former base the messages provided to drivers on measurements
or estimates of prevailing network conditions, while the latter derive messages
from forecasts of future network states. The two kinds of system can involve
quite different issues, and will be discussed separately in Sections 3.3 and 3.4.
Data on the effects of guidance on individual traveler behavior are available
from laboratory experiments with driving simulators and, to a more limited
extent, from surveys and observations of travelers who use RGIS. Knowledge
of these effects is important to develop predictive guidance, and ultimately to
evaluate the economic benefits of RGIS. Current knowledge of traveler re-
sponse to information is discussed in Section 3.5.
Finally, Section 3.6 identifies some areas of current research.
delays inherent in collecting and processing data, and in generating and dis-
seminating the messages.
Message design. The final issue concerns the syntax and semantics of the
guidance messages themselves, including their medium of delivery, format,
content, and precision. The distinction between prescriptive guidance and de-
scriptive information was mentioned above. Visual or audio messages intended
for direct reception by drivers cannot be overly complex because of the diffi-
culty of assimilating them while driving. Messages that will be processed by an
in-vehicle unit and conveyed to the driver in a schematic visual form might per-
haps have a higher data content. The available communications bandwidth or
message display capabilities may also constrain message complexity and preci-
sion.
traversal times are in turn affected by the congestion that results from the
movement of demand along the links.
Conventional (nonguidance) dynamic traffic assignment models compute
time-dependent equilibrium flows and traversal times under the assumption
that demand has perfect information about present and future congestion lev-
els and chooses paths accordingly. Guidance-oriented traffic network models,
on the other hand, must explicitly consider the availability and nature of travel
information, as well as driver behavior in the presence and absence of such
information. In Ben-Akiva et al. (1991) and Watling and van Vuren (1993) the
features that dynamic network models require for route guidance applications
are considered.
Guidance-oriented traffic models have been less studied than conventional
traffic assignment models. A high-level formal representation of a network
model for predictive guidance generation can be obtained using three time-
dependent problem variables and three maps (that are implemented as models
and algorithms) that relate them. The variables are: C, the network conditions;
M, the guidance messages; and P, the path splits (fraction of trips going to
a particular destination via each available path or subpath) at trip origins and
en-route decision points. The maps are:
• the network loading map S : P → C, which determines the network con-
ditions that result from the movement of exogenous time-dependent
OD demands over the network in accordance with a particular set of
path splits;
• the routing map D : M → P, which determines the path splits that
result from a particular set of guidance messages. The routing map gen-
erally incorporates a model of driver response to guidance messages;
and
• the guidance map G : C → M, which represents the response of the
RGIS, in the form of guidance messages, to a given set of network
conditions. (Note that messages output by this map for a given set of
conditions are not necessarily consistent, since driver reaction to the
messages may result in network conditions different from the inputs.)
Composite problem maps can be obtained by combining the network load-
ing, routing and guidance maps in different sequences. Each composite map
transforms an element of one problem variable into another element of the
same variable. There are three such maps (the symbol ∗ denotes functional
composition):
• a composite map D ∗ G ∗ S : P → P from the domain of path splits into
itself;
• a composite map S ∗ D ∗ G : C → C from the domain of link conditions
into itself; and
• a composite map G ∗ S ∗ D : M → M from the domain of messages into
itself.
Ch. 11. ITS and Traffic Management 739
Route choice. Many surveys and travel choice simulator studies have demon-
strated the ability of RGIS to influence route choice. Based on analysis of
driver route choice responses to both VMS and radio information, it has been
suggested in Emmerink et al. (1996) that some people have an innate propen-
sity to use traffic information of any kind and from any source. Nonetheless,
there is considerable evidence that the nature of the guidance information, and
the conditions experienced prior to its dissemination, can strongly affect driver
route choice response to it.
Drivers’ perceptions of the accuracy and reliability of the messages is a key
determinant of their response. It has been found (Kantowitz et al., 1997) that
there exists an accuracy “threshold”, beneath which drivers will simply ignore
RGIS messages. Factors that increase drivers’ confidence in the accuracy of
the messages tend to increase the likelihood that the drivers will react to them.
In the context of route choice, such factors include observation of congestion
prior (and particularly just prior) to receiving the message, and favorable expe-
riences with the RGIS in prior uses. Drivers appear to be tolerant of a certain
amount of error in RGIS messages, although drivers familiar with an area will
expect a higher degree of accuracy from the information system.
Some drivers express a strong preference for descriptive information
on traffic conditions, while others prefer prescriptive recommendations of
a particular route to take (Khattak et al., 1996; Polydoropoulou et al., 1996).
Combining a prescriptive recommendation to change routes with descriptive
information justifying the recommendation has been found in some travel
choice simulator experiments to result in the highest route switching compli-
ance rates (Bonsall and Palmer, 1999).
A number of generally idiosyncratic factors condition a driver’s route choice
response to RGIS messages. For example, a motorway bias has been observed
in several studies. Because of this bias, drivers receiving messages that suggest
diverting from a nonmotorway to a motorway facility are considerably more
likely to comply than those who receive the opposite message, other things
being equal. As mentioned above, habit also plays a significant role in travel
decisions.
Learning. The day-to-day dynamics of commuter pre-trip departure time
and route choices as well as en-route path switching for morning commutes
were analyzed in Mahmassani and Liu (1999). Factors affecting route choice
behavior include: (1) arrival time flexibility, (2) user characteristics, and (3) in-
formation reliability. In Ozbay et al. (2001) the use of a stochastic learning
algorithm to analyze drivers’ day-to-day route choice behavior is proposed.
This model addresses the learning behavior of travelers based on experienced
travel time and day-to-day learning.
4.1 Introduction
Early systems in the 1950s and 1960s were based on fixed-time traffic control
providing signal coordination or progression for traffic on an arterial, through
the optimization of offsets between adjacent sets of signals. UTC was therefore
justified on there being a sufficient density of traffic signals to make signal co-
ordination worthwhile, compared to the alternative of operating traffic signals
in isolation. Whilst relatively effective for traffic co-ordination in “predictable”
conditions, the inability of fixed-time systems to adjust to changing traffic con-
ditions has been a drawback in this approach. The desire for traffic signaling
744 M. Papageorgiou et al.
Fig. 3. Schematic illustration of a UTMC system (Source: Department of the UK Environment, Trans-
port and the Regions (1999))
the system the more comprehensive the detector requirements and the more
susceptible it is to detector failure. Many systems have default values for the
controllers based on time of day which are implemented if loss of detectors or
communication occurs.
Increasingly, a wide range of detectors are available. Traditionally, ground-
based systems using inductive loops to measure the presence of a vehicle have
formed the basis of most UTC detection. Other ground-based systems include
magnetometers which measure changes in the earth’s magnetic field brought
about by the presence of a vehicle. Above ground detectors include microwave
systems, radar, infra-red, video, and laser systems. Each has specific charac-
teristics to capture different aspects of vehicle behavior. Image-based systems
can be installed without costly and disruptive installation works, but have yet
to reach their full potential. Using vehicles themselves as detectors is an ap-
plication being considered for the future. Overall, the quality, quantity, and
reliability of future information will encourage more sophisticated UTC con-
trol strategies.
Table 2 provides a summary of the main advantages and disadvantages of
different types of UTC systems.
Table 2.
Summary of advantages and disadvantages of different types of UTC systems
Fig. 5. Principles of the SCOOT traffic model (Source: Department of the UK Environment, Transport
and the Regions (1999)).
750 M. Papageorgiou et al.
within local controllers. A central computer may also be used to improve man-
agement functions. SCATS differs from many other systems in that the network
manager has a more direct involvement in setting up the system, i.e., it does not
have a model. The degree of operator understanding increases with the level
of simplicity of a system and this would lead to corridor operations being ad-
dressed most beneficially.
PRODYN. PRODYN (Farges, 1990) was developed in France and has been
implemented in some other European cities. It uses an intersection open-loop
optimal feedback algorithm for traffic signal control. As with SCOOT and
UTOPIA, detectors are located at the upstream end of each link and where
appropriate at 200 m and 50 m upstream. The detectors collect occupancy
data. The system operates in 5 sec steps and the demand for each period is
estimated from that in the previous period. A time horizon for prediction is
75 sec. Optimization seeks to minimize the sum of the delays over the horizon.
A forward dynamic programming procedure is used for optimization. Intersec-
tion controllers simulate the outputs over the horizon using the link outputs
and off-line determined turning proportions. Intersection controllers commu-
nicate with each other to achieve a better arrival forecast for the downstream
intersection. The control structure at the network level is a decentralized one.
Ch. 11. ITS and Traffic Management 753
4.4.4 Performance
A variety of studies have been undertaken in different locations seeking
to compare the performance of alternative control systems. Early compar-
isons were between isolated and coordinated forms of control. Results would
be expected to be highly dependent on network characteristics, so that, co-
ordination should be most favorable on arterial routes with closely spaced
traffic signals. Probably the most detailed surveys were undertaken in Glas-
gow, where fixed time co-ordination was found to reduce vehicle journey times
by some 16% on average compared to isolated control (Holroyd and Hillier,
1979).
Further comparisons by the UK Transport Research Laboratory have found
that the SCOOT UTC system offers delay savings of around 12% compared to
up-to-date fixed-time plans and up to 40% in peak periods in networks oper-
ating under isolated vehicle actuated control (McDonald and Hounsell, 1991).
A 4% annual increase in delay has also been reported for fixed-time plans
if not updated (Bell and Bretherton, 1986), so that the potential benefits of
traffic-responsive systems would then be higher.
Performance of the other systems described in Sections 4.4.1 and 4.4.2 have
also generally been evaluated through “before-and-after” studies. For exam-
ple, surveys of UTOPIA in Turin gave reductions in journey times of 20% for
public transport vehicles and 10–15% for other vehicles. Good results have
also been reported for SCATS and PRODYN. However, there is very little ev-
idence of the comparative performance of the systems described on the same
network.
4.5 Discussion
ramp metering, route guidance, variable speed limits, etc. The way the con-
trol measures behave and act on the traffic process stems from the specific
design of the control strategy used. The control strategy employed determines
the control actions, and the specific response to the prevailing traffic condi-
tions, through the available control actuators, is based on its design and on
pre-specified goals.
Figure 6 depicts the general control loop for the motorway network traffic
process which includes all technical and physical phenomena that should be
influenced according to the specific goals. The evolution of the traffic process
depends upon the control inputs and the process disturbances. The control in-
puts are directly related to corresponding control devices such as traffic lights,
variable message signs, variable direction signs, etc., and may be selected from
an admissible control region subject to technical, physical, and operational
constraints. The process disturbances cannot be manipulated, but may pos-
sibly be measurable (e.g., demand) or detectable (e.g., incident) or predictable
over a future time horizon with appropriate algorithms. Typical disturbances in
motorway traffic are traffic demands, origin–destination patterns, the drivers’
compliance to variable message signs, environmental conditions, and incidents.
The process outputs are quantities chosen to represent the performance as-
pects of interest, e.g., total time spent, queue lengths, etc. The estimation of the
traffic state and the prediction of the various traffic quantities are performed
based on real-time measurements taken from the traffic process, and are sub-
sequently fed to the control strategy. The control strategy determines, based
Local ramp metering. Local ramp metering strategies make use of traffic mea-
surements in the vicinity of a ramp to calculate suitable ramp metering values.
The demand-capacity strategy (Masher et al., 1975), quite popular in North
America, reads
qcap − qin (k − 1) if oout (k) ocr
r(k) = (23)
rmin else
where (Figure 7) k is the discrete time index, qcap is the motorway capacity
downstream of the ramp, qin is the motorway flow measurement upstream of
the ramp, oout is the motorway occupancy measurement downstream of the
ramp, ocr is the critical occupancy (at which the motorway flow becomes maxi-
mum), and rmin is a pre-specified minimum ramp flow value. The strategy (23)
attempts to add to the measured upstream flow qin (k − 1) as much ramp flow
r(k) as necessary to reach the downstream motorway capacity qcap . If, how-
ever, for some reason, the downstream measured occupancy oout (k) becomes
overcritical (i.e., a congestion may form), the ramp flow r(k) is reduced to the
minimum admissible flow rmin to avoid or to dissolve the congestion.
Comparing the control problem in hand with Figure 6, it becomes clear that
the ramp flow r is a control input, the downstream occupancy oout is an output,
while the upstream motorway flow qin is a disturbance. Hence, (23) does not
really represent a closed-loop strategy but an open-loop disturbance-rejection
policy (Figure 7(a)) which is generally known to be quite sensitive to various
further nonmeasurable disturbances.
The occupancy strategy (Masher et al., 1975) is based on the same philos-
ophy as the demand-capacity strategy, but it relies on occupancy-based esti-
mation of qin , which may, under certain conditions, reduce the corresponding
implementation cost.
An alternative, closed-loop ramp metering strategy (ALINEA) (Figu-
re 7(b)), suggested in Papageorgiou et al. (1991), reads
r(k) = r(k − 1) + KR ô − oout (k) (24)
where KR > 0 is a regulator parameter and ô is a set (desired) value for the
downstream occupancy (typically, but not necessarily, ô = ocr may be set, in
which case the downstream motorway flow becomes close to qcap ). In field ap-
plications, ALINEA has not been very sensitive to the choice of the regulator
parameter KR .
Note that the demand-capacity strategy reacts to excessive occupancies oout
only after a threshold value (ocr ) is exceeded, and in a rather crude way, while
ALINEA reacts smoothly even to slight differences ô − oout (k), and thus it
may prevent congestion by stabilizing the traffic flow at a high throughput level.
758 M. Papageorgiou et al.
(a)
(b)
Fig. 7. Local ramp metering strategies. (a) Demand–capacity, (b) ALINEA.
The set value may be changed any time, and thus ALINEA may be embedded
into a hierarchical control system with set values of the individual ramps being
specified in real time by a superior coordination level or by an operator.
Comparative field trials have been conducted in various countries to as-
sess and compare the efficiency of local ramp metering strategies (see, e.g.,
Papageorgiou et al., 1998), such as the demand-capacity, ALINEA, and the
occupancy strategy. The field results clearly show ALINEA’s superiority for all
employed performance criterions.
erate the motorway traffic conditions near some pre-specified set (desired)
values. While local ramp metering is performed independently for each ramp,
based on local measurements, multivariable regulators make use of all avail-
able mainstream measurements oi (k), i = 1 n, on a motorway stretch, to
calculate simultaneously the ramp volume values ri (k), i = 1 m, for all
controllable ramps included in the same stretch (Papageorgiou et al., 1990).
This provides potential improvements over local ramp metering because of
more comprehensive information provision and because of coordinated con-
trol actions. Multivariable regulator approaches to ramp metering have been
reported in Yuan and Kreer (1968), Young et al. (1997), and Benmohamed
and Meerkov (1994). The multivariable regulator strategy METALINE may
be viewed as a generalization and extension of ALINEA, whereby the metered
on-ramp volumes are calculated from
r(k) = r(k − 1) − K1 o(k) − o(k − 1) + K2 O − O(k) (25)
where r = [r1 rm ] is the vector of m controllable on-ramp volumes,
o = [o1 on ] is the vector of n measured occupancies on the motorway
stretch, O = [O1 Om ] is a subset of o that includes m occupancy lo-
cations for which pre-specified set values O = [O1 Om ] may be given.
Note that for control-theoretic reasons the number of set-valued occupancies
cannot be higher than the number of controlled on-ramps. Typically one bottle-
neck location downstream of each controlled on-ramp is selected for inclusion
in the vector O. Finally, K1 and K2 are the regulator’s constant gain matrices
that must be suitably designed via an LQ procedure, see Papageorgiou et al.
(1990), and Diakaki and Papageorgiou (1994), for details.
and extended within the surveillance block, a control strategy decides about
the routes to be recommended (or the information to be provided) to the road
users. This, on its turn, has an impact on the traffic flow conditions in the net-
work, and this impact is reflected in the performance indices. Because of the
real-time nature of the operation, requirements of short computation times
are relatively strict (for more details see Section 3).
with
wo (k)
q̂o1 = do (k) + (33)
T
Qo if ρμ (k) < ρcrμ
q̂o2 = ρ (k)−ρcrμ (34)
Qo 1 − μ1
ρmax −ρcrμ if ρμ (k) ρcrμ
K−1
minimize J = ϑ[K] + ϕ x(k) u(k) d(k) (37)
k=0
subject to
x(k + 1) = f x(k) u(k) d(k) x(0) = x0 (38)
uimin ui (k) uimax ∀i = 1 m (39)
764 M. Papageorgiou et al.
this motorway, including the connections with the A8, A4, A2, and A1 mo-
torways, and a total number of 20 off-ramps, including the junctions with A4,
A2, A1, and A8. It is assumed that ramp metering may be performed at each
on-ramp, whereby the maximum permissible queue length for the on-ramps
is set to 20 vehicles, while storage of 100 vehicles is permitted on each of the
motorway-to-motorway ramps of A8, A4, A2, and A1.
The model parameters for this network were determined from validation
of the network traffic flow model against real data taken from the motorways
(Kotsialos et al., 1998).
The ring-road was divided in 76 segments with average length 421 m. This
means that the state vector is 173-dimensional (including the 21 on-ramp
queues). Since ramp metering is applied to all on-ramps, the control vector
is 21-dimensional, while the disturbance vector is 43-dimensional. With a time
step T = 10 s we have, for a horizon of 4 h, K = 1440 which results in a large-
scale optimization problem with 279,360 variables.
(a)
(b)
Fig. 9. No control: (a) Density, (b) on-ramp queues.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Fig. 10. Optimal control. (a) Density, (b) on-ramp queues, (c) optimal ramp metering rates.
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