The document provides an example of how to apply price action trading tactics based on supply and demand zones. It analyzes a strong move higher on the AUD/JPY 1-hour chart, identifying a demand zone based on candlestick patterns. It evaluates the strength of the zone using factors like the speed and size of the move. It also looks at risk/reward, finding a pin bar confirmation pattern for entry. Taking a trade sized to risk 3% of the account, it shows how a 3:1 risk/reward ratio can produce profits even with a high losing trade rate.
The document provides an example of how to apply price action trading tactics based on supply and demand zones. It analyzes a strong move higher on the AUD/JPY 1-hour chart, identifying a demand zone based on candlestick patterns. It evaluates the strength of the zone using factors like the speed and size of the move. It also looks at risk/reward, finding a pin bar confirmation pattern for entry. Taking a trade sized to risk 3% of the account, it shows how a 3:1 risk/reward ratio can produce profits even with a high losing trade rate.
The document provides an example of how to apply price action trading tactics based on supply and demand zones. It analyzes a strong move higher on the AUD/JPY 1-hour chart, identifying a demand zone based on candlestick patterns. It evaluates the strength of the zone using factors like the speed and size of the move. It also looks at risk/reward, finding a pin bar confirmation pattern for entry. Taking a trade sized to risk 3% of the account, it shows how a 3:1 risk/reward ratio can produce profits even with a high losing trade rate.
The document provides an example of how to apply price action trading tactics based on supply and demand zones. It analyzes a strong move higher on the AUD/JPY 1-hour chart, identifying a demand zone based on candlestick patterns. It evaluates the strength of the zone using factors like the speed and size of the move. It also looks at risk/reward, finding a pin bar confirmation pattern for entry. Taking a trade sized to risk 3% of the account, it shows how a 3:1 risk/reward ratio can produce profits even with a high losing trade rate.
weeks reading through this price action trading course, you have seen the various concepts I put forward, I have disclosed my trading mindset, all my wisdom and knowledge, you know all my tools and all my price action entry method. Now you have one of the most powerful trading methods based on how banks and financial institutions trade the market.
In this lesson, we will try to apply all the
knowledge that I shared with you, so you will understand how to approach your trade step by step by following rules and strategies we discussed in previous lessons. Let’s start by the first trade’s example below:
Look at the AUD JPY H1 chart above, as you
can see there is a very strong move that attracts our attention, this move cannot be made by retail traders, this move is certainly the result of a bank or a financial institution order. So, we are in front of a powerful demand zone. The first thing that we should do is to draw the zone. Look at the chart below:
As you can see on the chart above, we
identified the beginning of the move to spot the basing candle, in this example, the tweezer bottom was the basing candle.
So, we draw the proximal line which is the
closest line to current price at the close of the bullish candle, and the distal line at the close of the bearish candle. The result, we get a nice demand zone.
This is not quite enough to take our trade, this
is only the first step, the next step is to evaluate the zone and see if it is worth our hard-earned money or not. Look at the chart below:
This is the AUD JPY H1 same chart, as you
can see, we identified a good demand zone. But we need to evaluate it and see if it is a valid zone or not. These are the following factors that we took into consideration:
-The beginning of the move: as you can see
the move was strong and quick, and the market didn’t spend too much in the zone. This indicates that the order was placed by a big bank or a financial institution.
-The candle size of the zone: the candle size
is big and showed that the buyer invested too much quantities to push the market to go higher in a very short period of time.
-The breakout of previous resistance level:
the strength of the move was confirmed by the breakout of the previous resistance level.
-The freshness of the zone: as you can see
the zone is fresh, and it will be tested for the first time.
These factors help us evaluate the strength of
the zone, because we can’t trade any zone that we find on our chart. But what about the risk to reward ratio? let’s see how we calculate our risk to reward ratio:
As you can see on the chart above, by
comparing the risk and the reward, we can clearly see that the trade has a good potential and provides us with a good risk to reward ratio. This is only the first impression that we got from looking at the chart. But to be able to calculate the risk to reward ratio, we need to wait for a confirmation pattern that forms in the demand zone.
Another factor of confluence that makes the
trade setup more attractive is the 61.8 golden ratio, if we use the Fibonacci retracement, we can see that the area is a golden zone that holds the magic Fibonacci ratio. See the illustration below:
As you can see on the chart, by using
Fibonacci retracement, we found that the area of demand is a golden zone because it holds the golden ratio. So, this factor of confluence will give us more confidence in this trade.
Now let’s move to the top down analysis and
see if the zone is in line with the trend or against it, let’s see the daily chart below:
As you can see on the daily chart, which is the
higher time frame of the hourly, the market is trading down, so the trend on higher time frame is against our trade on the H1 time frame. what should we do in this situation?
In this situation we have two options:
-To ignore the trade if the zone is not strong
enough
-To take the trade against the trend if the zone
is very strong, and we have an obvious candlestick pattern signal.
In this case we should take this trade even if it
is against the trend because the zone is very strong, look at the move and the candle size the both shows the strength of the zone. And the risk to reward is attractive as well. Besides, the zone holds the 61.8 golden ratio which makes it stronger. But we need to wait for an obvious candlestick pattern signal to confirm our entry. Let’s go back to our trade to see what happened:
As you can see, when the market approached
the demand zone, we noticed that the price was rejected from this area, this means that sellers found a powerful level and couldn’t break it. The tail of the both candlesticks show us how sellers were rejected from the demand zone.
-The first breakout of the demand zone was
another indication that shows us that sellers were a victim of a bear trap. And this manipulation or what we call it “false breakout” is always made by banks and financial institutions to trap traders, hit their stop loss and then go in the opposite direction. This is what happened in the chart above.
-We have a pin bar candlestick pattern that
formed in the demand zone and indicates the beginning of a buying pressure. That’s what we were looking for. This candlestick pattern confirms our entry. See the chart below:
As you can see on the chart above, the
formation of this candlestick pattern confirms our entry and encourages us to place a buy order. So, we place our entry at the close of the pin bar. The stop loss should be placed below the tail of the red candle. And the profit target is the next supply zone. See how we calculate our risk to reward ratio below:
As you can see in the chart above, we use this
simple formula to calculate our risk to reward ratio:
The risk = The Entry Value -The Stop Loss
Value
The Reward = Profit Target -Entry Value
So, our risk is 25 pips and our reward is going
to be 83 pips which represents 3:1 risk to reward ratio. After you calculate your risk to reward ratio, you need to adjust the amount of pips that you are going to risk to the percentage of your trading account that you risk per trade.
Let’s say you have a 10,000-dollar trading
account, and you risk only 3% per trade. That means, your risked amount of money per trade is 333 dollars which is 3% of your trading account.
Now let’s adjust the 25 pips risk to 300 dollars
to see how many dollars we will risk per pip, so let’s do the math 333 dollar /25 pips = 13.32 dollars per pip. Let’s say 13 dollars.
So, in this case, you will risk 13 dollars per pip,
and in case your stop loss is hit by the market you will lose 25 pips which is 300 dollars. That means 3% of your account.
If your risk is more than 25 pips let’s say 100
pips stop loss, so you will adjust it to the 300 dollars, let’s do the math: 300 dollars /100 = 3 dollars per pip. So, if the market hits your 100 pips stop loss you will lose 300 dollars which is 3% of your account.
You need to adjust the number of pips you risk
to the 3% or 2% of your trading account that you will risk per trade, this way, you will not need to tighten your stop loss in order to avoid losing too much, because your risk will always be 3% no matter how many pips your risk.
Now let’s go back to our AUD JPY chart to see
what happens next:
As you can see in the chart above, the market
goes in our direction and makes us 83 pips profit and provides us with 1:3 risk to reward ratio. Let’s suppose that you have 10.000 dollars account, and you risk only 3% of your trading account per trade. Let’s say you took 10 trades this month with 1:3 risk to reward ratio.
That means when the market goes in your
direction, you win 9% of your account which 333*3 = 999 dollars. and when the market hits your stop loss you lose 333 dollars.
Let’s say you took 10 trades this month, and
you lost 7 trades, you only won 3 trades, so let’s do the math to see the magic of the risk to reward ratio.
7 losing trades*333 dollars = 2331 dollars loss.
And 3 wining trade*999 = 2997 dollars profit.
As you can see, even in the worst scenario
when you lose more than 70% of your trades, you finish the month with over 2997 profit -2331 loss = 666 dollars.
This is the power of the risk to reward ratio,
and when it is combined with supply and demand zones, the results will be just amazing, because the win rate of this strategy is more than 80%.