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    Chapter5specialprobabilitydistribution v1 28week5 29

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    Alvin Hawkins
    - The number of cars that arrive at a PLUS highway tollgate follows a Poisson distribution - The average number of cars that arrive per hour (λ) is 3 - The question asks to find the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive in a given hour - Using the Poisson probability formula: P(X=x) = (e-λ * λx)/x!, where λ=3 and x=5, the probability is 0.128 So in summary, the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive at the PLUS highway tollgate in a given hour, given that the average arrival rate is 3 cars per hour, is 0.128.

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    Chapter5specialprobabilitydistribution v1 28week5 29

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    Alvin Hawkins
    24 views35 pages
    - The number of cars that arrive at a PLUS highway tollgate follows a Poisson distribution - The average number of cars that arrive per hour (λ) is 3 - The question asks to find the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive in a given hour - Using the Poisson probability formula: P(X=x) = (e-λ * λx)/x!, where λ=3 and x=5, the probability is 0.128 So in summary, the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive at the PLUS highway tollgate in a given hour, given that the average arrival rate is 3 cars per hour, is 0.128.

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    - The number of cars that arrive at a PLUS highway tollgate follows a Poisson distribution - The average number of cars that arrive per hour (λ) is 3 - The question asks to find the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive in a given hour - Using the Poisson probability formula: P(X=x) = (e-λ * λx)/x!, where λ=3 and x=5, the probability is 0.128 So in summary, the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive at the PLUS highway tollgate in a given hour, given that the average arrival rate is 3 cars per hour, is 0.128.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    24 views35 pages

    Chapter5specialprobabilitydistribution v1 28week5 29

    Uploaded by

    Alvin Hawkins
    - The number of cars that arrive at a PLUS highway tollgate follows a Poisson distribution - The average number of cars that arrive per hour (λ) is 3 - The question asks to find the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive in a given hour - Using the Poisson probability formula: P(X=x) = (e-λ * λx)/x!, where λ=3 and x=5, the probability is 0.128 So in summary, the probability that exactly 5 cars arrive at the PLUS highway tollgate in a given hour, given that the average arrival rate is 3 cars per hour, is 0.128.

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    Chapter 3

    Special Probability Distribution

    Week 5
    3.1 Binomial Distributions
    Binomial Experiments

    1. The experiment is repeated for a fixed number of trials, where each trial
    is independent of other trials.
    2. There are only two possible outcomes of interest for each trial. The
    outcomes can be classified as a success (S) or as a failure (F).
    3. The probability of a success P(S) is the same for each trial.
    4. The random variable x counts the number of successful trials.
    Notation for Binomial Experiments

    Symbol Description
    n The number of times a trial is repeated
    p = P(S) The probability of success in a single trial
    q = P(F) The probability of failure in a single trial
    (q = 1 – p)
    x The random variable represents a count of
    the number of successes in n trials:
    x = 0, 1, 2, 3, … , n.
    Example: Binomial Experiments

    Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify


    the values of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable
    x.
    1. A certain surgical procedure has an 85% chance of
    success. A doctor performs the procedure on eight
    patients. The random variable represents the number
    of successful surgeries.
    Solution: Binomial Experiments

    Binomial Experiment
    1. Each surgery represents a trial. There are eight surgeries, and each one
    is independent of the others.
    2. There are only two possible outcomes of interest for each surgery: a
    success (S) or a failure (F).
    3. The probability of a success, P(S), is 0.85 for each surgery.
    4. The random variable x counts the number of successful surgeries.
    Solution: Binomial Experiments

    Binomial Experiment
    • n = 8 (number of trials)
    • p = 0.85 (probability of success)
    • q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.85 = 0.15 (probability of failure)
    • x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 (number of successful
    surgeries)
    Example: Binomial Experiments

    Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify


    the values of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable
    x.
    2. A jar contains five red marbles, nine blue marbles, and
    six green marbles. You randomly select three marbles
    from the jar, without replacement. The random
    variable represents the number of red marbles.
    Solution: Binomial Experiments

    Not a Binomial Experiment


    • The probability of selecting a red marble on the first trial is 5/20.
    • Because the marble is not replaced, the probability of success (red) for
    subsequent trials is no longer 5/20.
    • The trials are not independent and the probability of a success is not the
    same for each trial.
    Binomial Probability Formula

    Binomial Probability Formula


    • The probability of exactly x successes in n trials is
    n x n!
    P( x)  n Cx p q
    x
     p x q n x
    (n  x)! x !
    • n = number of trials
    • p = probability of success
    • q = 1 – p probability of failure
    • x = number of successes in n trials, so x can be any
    number between 0 and n inclusive with 𝑋~ 𝐵 𝑛, 𝑝
    Example: Finding Binomial Probabilities

    Microfracture knee surgery has a 75% chance of success on patients with


    degenerative knees. The surgery is performed on three patients. Find the
    probability of the surgery being successful on exactly two patients.
    Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities
    Method 1: Draw a tree diagram and use the
    Multiplication Rule

     9
    P(2 successful surgeries)  3   0.422
     64 
    Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities

    Method 2: Binomial Probability Formula


    3 1
    n  3, p  , q  1 p  , x  2
    4 4
    P(X=x)=nCx pxqn-x

    2 3−2
    3𝐶
    3 1
    𝑃 𝑋=2 = 2
    4 4
    Probability for 2 3 2 1 1
    successful surgeries = 3𝐶2 = 0.419
    4 4
    Binomial Probability Distribution

    Binomial Probability Distribution


    • List the possible values of x with the corresponding
    probability of each.
    • Example: Binomial probability distribution for
    3
    Microfracture knee surgery: n = 3, p = 4
    x 0 1 2 3
    P(x) 0.016 0.141 0.422 0.422

     Use the binomial probability formula to find


    probabilities.
    Example: Constructing a Binomial Distribution
    In a survey, people in Parit Raja were asked to give reasons why
    they liked texting on their smartphone. Seven people who
    participated in the survey are randomly selected and asked
    whether they like texting because it is quicker than calling.
    Create a binomial probability distribution for the number of
    people who respond yes.
    Solution: Constructing a Binomial Distribution
    • 56% of adults like texting because it is quicker than
    calling.
    • n = 7, p = 0.56, q = 0.44, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
    P(0) = 7C0(0.56)0(0.44)7 = 1(0.56)0(0.44)7 ≈ 0.0032
    P(1) = 7C1(0.56)1(0.44)6 = 7(0.56)1(0.44)6 ≈ 0.0284
    P(2) = 7C2(0.56)2(0.44)5 = 21(0.56)2(0.44)5 ≈ 0.1086
    P(3) = 7C3(0.56)3(0.44)4 = 35(0.56)3(0.44)4 ≈ 0.2304
    P(4) = 7C4(0.56)4(0.44)3 = 35(0.56)4(0.44)3 ≈ 0.2932
    P(5) = 7C5(0.56)5(0.44)2 = 21(0.56)5(0.44)2 ≈ 0.2239
    P(6) = 7C6(0.56)6(0.44)1 = 7(0.56)6(0.44)1 ≈ 0.0950
    P(7) = 7C7(0.56)7(0.44)0 = 1(0.56)7(0.44)0 ≈ 0.0173
    Solution: Constructing a Binomial Distribution

    x P(x)
    0 0.0032 All of the probabilities are between
    1 0.0284 0 and 1 and the sum of the
    2 0.1086 probabilities is 1.
    3 0.2304
    4 0.2932
    5 0.2239
    6 0.0950
    7 0.0173
    Author Question: Finding Binomial Probabilities

    A survey indicates that 41% of women in Batu Pahat consider reading


    their favorite leisure-time activity. You randomly select four women
    and ask them if reading is their favorite leisure-time activity. Find the
    probability that at least two of them respond yes.
    Example: Finding Binomial Probabilities Using a Table

    About ten percent of workers (16 years and over) in Penang commute to
    their jobs by carpooling. You randomly select eight workers. What is the
    probability that exactly four of them carpool to work? Use a table to find
    the probability.

    Solution:
    • Binomial with n = 8, p = 0.10, x = 4
    Solution: Finding Binomial Probabilities Using a Table

    • A portion of Table : Binomial

    The probability that exactly four of the eight workers


    carpool to work is 0.005.
    Author Question : Graphing a Binomial Distribution

    Sixty percent of households in Petaling Jaya own a video game console.


    You randomly select six households and ask each if they own a video
    game console. Construct a probability distribution for the random variable
    x. Then graph the distribution.
    Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

    • Mean: μ = np

    • Variance: σ2 = npq

    • Standard Deviation:   npq


    Author Question : Finding the Mean, Variance, and
    Standard Deviation
    In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, about 56% of the days in a year are cloudy.
    Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the number of cloudy
    days during the month of June. Interpret the results and determine any
    unusual values. (Source: National Climatic Data Center)
    3.2 Poisson Distribution
    Poisson Distribution
    Poisson distribution
    • A discrete probability distribution.
    • Satisfies the following conditions
     The experiment consists of counting the number of times x an event
    occurs in a given interval. The interval can be an interval of time,
    area, or volume.
     The probability of the event occurring is the same for each interval.
     The number of occurrences in one interval is independent of the
    number of occurrences in other intervals.
    Poisson Distribution
    Poisson distribution
    • Conditions continued:
     The probability of exactly x occurrences in an interval
    is
    e   x
    P X  x   , x  0, 1, 2, ..., 
    x!
    where
    µ = mean or average number of event
    x = number of success event with 𝑋~𝑃0(µ).
    Example: Poisson Distribution

    The mean number of accidents per month at a certain junction in


    Parit Raja is 3. What is the probability that in any given month four
    accidents will occur at this intersection?
    Solution:
    Let X be the number of accidents per month, then
    𝑋~𝑃0(3).
    e   x
    P X  x  
    x!
    𝑒 −3 34
    𝑃 𝑋=4 = = 0.168
    4!
    Example: Poisson Distribution
    If the average of the hawker summons per week is eight, find the
    probability that five summons will be given per week.
    Example: Poisson Distribution
    If the average of the hawker summons per week is eight, find the
    probability that five summons will be given per week.

    Solution :
    Let X be the number of hawker summons per week, then 𝑋~𝑃0(8)

    𝑒 −8 85
    𝑃 𝑋=5 = = 0.0916
    5!
    Author Question : Poisson Distribution
    An average of three cars arrive at PLUS highway tollgate every minute. If
    this rate is approximated by a Poisson process, what is the probability that :
    a. Exactly five cars will arrive in a one-minute period?
    b. More than two cars will arrive in a one-minute period?
    c. Less than two cars will arrive in a two-minute period?
    Mean and Variance

    Mean and variance


    The formula mean, variance and standard deviation of the Poisson random variable X are
    Mean,   
    Variance, 2 
    Standard deviation,  
    Author Question : Poisson or Binomial
    distribution?
    Read the following questions and decide whether the Poisson or the Binomial distribution
    should be used to answer it. Calculate the required probabilities.

    • A typist makes on average 2 mistakes per page. What is the probability of a particular page
    having no errors on it?(ans : 0.1353)

    • A computer crashes once every 2 days on average. What is the probability of there being 2
    crashes in one week?(ans : 0.185)

    • Components are packed in boxes of 20. The probability of a component being defective is
    0.1. What is the probability of a box containing 2 defective components?(ans : 0.285)

    • ICs are packaged in boxes of 10. The probability of an IC being faulty is 2%. What is the
    probability of a box containing 2 faulty ICs? ( ans : 0.015)
    http://personal.maths.surrey.ac.uk/st/J.Deane/Teach/se202/poiss_bin.html
    Poisson or Binomial distribution?
    As a guide,

    If a mean or average probability of an event happening per unit time/per


    page/per mile cycled etc., is given, and you are asked to calculate a
    probability of n events happening in a given time/number of pages/number of
    miles cycled, then the Poisson Distribution is used.

    If, on the other hand, an exact probability(percentage) of an event happening


    is given, or implied, in the question, and you are asked to calculate the
    probability of this event happening k times out of n, then the Binomial
    Distribution must be used.
    Poisson Approximation to Binomial

    𝑋~𝐵 𝑛, 𝑝 → 𝑋~𝑃0 𝜇
    Binomial → Poisson
    Condition:
    𝑛 ≥ 30 , 𝑝 < 0.1

    1. When ‘n’ is large , and ‘p’ is approximately small , Poisson can be used
    to approximate Binomial. In other words when n >=30 and p<=0.1.

    Step 1 : Check that n >=30; p <=0.1


    Step 2 : Compute P(x) by using the Poisson distribution.

    2. Binomial and Poisson is discrete random variable. No need for continuity


    correction factor (+- 0.5)
    Poisson Approximation to Binomial
    Example:
    The probability that a person will die from a certain respiratory infection is
    0.002. Find the probability that exactly five of the 2000 infected person will die.

    Solution: n=2000>30, p=0.002.

    Method 1 : Binomial distribution Method 2: Poisson Distribution


    𝑋~𝐵(2000,0.002) 𝑋~𝑃0 (4) where µ=np

    2000 5 1995 45 𝑒 −4
    𝑃 𝑋=5 = 𝐶5 0.002) (0.998 𝑃 𝑋=5 = 5!
    = 0.1565 = 0.1563

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