MAHARANA PRATAP GROUP OF INSTITUTIONS

KOTHI MANDHANA, KANPUR

(Approved by AICTE, New Delhi and Affiliated to Dr. AKTU, Lucknow)

Digital Notes
[Department of Computer Application]
Subject Name : Artificial Intelligence
Subject Code : KCA301
Course : MCA
Branch : -
Semester : IIIrd
Prepared by : Mr. Narendra Kumar Sharma

Reference No./MCA/NARENDRA/KCA301/2/3
 Unit – 3
Knowledge Representation & Reasoning

1. What is Knowledge Representation?

Humans are best at understanding, reasoning, and interpreting knowledge. Human knows things,
which is knowledge and as per their knowledge they perform various actions in the real
world. But how machines do all these things comes under knowledge representation and
reasoning. Hence we can describe Knowledge representation as following:

o Knowledge representation and reasoning (KR, KRR) is the part of Artificial intelligence
which concerned with AI agents thinking and how thinking contributes to intelligent
behavior of agents.
o It is responsible for representing information about the real world so that a computer can
understand and can utilize this knowledge to solve the complex real world problems such
as diagnosis a medical condition or communicating with humans in natural language.
o It is also a way which describes how we can represent knowledge in artificial
intelligence. Knowledge representation is not just storing data into some database, but it
also enables an intelligent machine to learn from that knowledge and experiences so that
it can behave intelligently like a human.

1.1 What to Represent:

Following are the kind of knowledge which needs to be represented in AI systems:
o Object: All the facts about objects in our world domain. E.g., Guitars contains strings,
trumpets are brass instruments.
o Events: Events are the actions which occur in our world.
o Performance: It describe behavior which involves knowledge about how to do things.
o Meta-knowledge: It is knowledge about what we know.
o Facts: Facts are the truths about the real world and what we represent.
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o Knowledge-Base: The central component of the knowledge-based agents is the

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knowledge base. It is represented as KB. The Knowledgebase is a group of the Sentences

 (Here, sentences are used as a technical term and not identical with the English
language).

1.2 Types of knowledge

Knowledge: Knowledge is awareness or familiarity gained by experiences of facts, data, and
situations. Following are the types of knowledge in artificial intelligence:

Following are the various types of knowledge:

1. Declarative Knowledge:
o Declarative knowledge is to know about something.
o It includes concepts, facts, and objects.
o It is also called descriptive knowledge and expressed in declarativesentences.
o It is simpler than procedural language.

2. Procedural Knowledge
o It is also known as imperative knowledge.
o Procedural knowledge is a type of knowledge which is responsible for knowing how to
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do something.
 o It can be directly applied to any task.
o It includes rules, strategies, procedures, agendas, etc.
o Procedural knowledge depends on the task on which it can be applied.

3. Meta-knowledge:
o Knowledge about the other types of knowledge is called Meta-knowledge.

4. Heuristic knowledge:
o Heuristic knowledge is representing knowledge of some experts in a filed or subject.
o Heuristic knowledge is rules of thumb based on previous experiences, awareness of
approaches, and which are good to work but not guaranteed.

5. Structural knowledge:
o Structural knowledge is basic knowledge to problem-solving.
o It describes relationships between various concepts such as kind of, part of, and grouping
of something.
o It describes the relationship that exists between concepts or objects.

1.3 The relation between knowledge and intelligence:

Knowledge of real-worlds plays a vital role in intelligence and same for creating artificial
intelligence. Knowledge plays an important role in demonstrating intelligent behavior in AI
agents. An agent is only able to accurately act on some input when he has some knowledge or
experience about that input.
Let's suppose if you met some person who is speaking in a language which you don't
know, then how you will able to act on that. The same thing applies to the intelligent behavior of
the agents.
As we can see in below diagram, there is one decision maker which act by sensing the
environment and using knowledge. But if the knowledge part will not present then, it cannot
display intelligent behavior.
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1.4 AI knowledge cycle
An Artificial intelligence system has the following components for displaying intelligent
behavior:
o Perception
o Learning
o Knowledge Representation and Reasoning
o Planning
o Execution

The above diagram is showing how an AI system can interact with the real world and what
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components help it to show intelligence. AI system has Perception component by which it

retrieves information from its environment. It can be visual, audio or another form of sensory
input. The learning component is responsible for learning from data captured by Perception
comportment. In the complete cycle, the main components are knowledge representation and
Reasoning. These two components are involved in showing the intelligence in machine-like
humans. These two components are independent with each other but also coupled together. The
planning and execution depend on analysis of Knowledge representation and reasoning.

1.5 Approaches to knowledge representation:

There are mainly four approaches to knowledge representation, which are given below:

1. Simple relational knowledge:

o It is the simplest way of storing facts which uses the relational method, and each fact
about a set of the object is set out systematically in columns.
o This approach of knowledge representation is famous in database systems where the
relationship between different entities is represented.
o This approach has little opportunity for inference.

Example: The following is the simple relational knowledge representation.

Player Weight Age

Player1 65 23

Player2 58 18

Player3 75 24

2. Inheritable knowledge:
o In the inheritable knowledge approach, all data must be stored into a hierarchy of classes.
o All classes should be arranged in a generalized form or a hierarchal manner.
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o In this approach, we apply inheritance property.

 o Elements inherit values from other members of a class.
o This approach contains inheritable knowledge which shows a relation between instance
and class, and it is called instance relation.
o Every individual frame can represent the collection of attributes and its value.
o In this approach, objects and values are represented in Boxed nodes.
o We use Arrows which point from objects to their values.

Example:

3. Inferential knowledge:
o Inferential knowledge approach represents knowledge in the form of formal logics.
o This approach can be used to derive more facts.
o It guaranteed correctness.

Example: Let's suppose there are two statements:

a. Marcus is a man
b. All men are mortal
Then it can represent as;

man(Marcus)
∀x = man (x) ----------> mortal (x)s
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4. Procedural knowledge:
o Procedural knowledge approach uses small programs and codes which describes how to
do specific things, and how to proceed.
o In this approach, one important rule is used which is If-Then rule.
o In this knowledge, we can use various coding languages such as LISP
language and Prolog language.
o We can easily represent heuristic or domain-specific knowledge using this approach.
o But it is not necessary that we can represent all cases in this approach.

1.6 Requirements for knowledge Representation system

A good knowledge representation system must possess the following properties.

1. Representational Accuracy:
KR system should have the ability to represent all kind of required knowledge.

2. Inferential Adequacy:
KR system should have ability to manipulate the representational structures to produce new
knowledge corresponding to existing structure.

3. Inferential Efficiency:
The ability to direct the inferential knowledge mechanism into the most productive directions
by storing appropriate guides.

4. Acquisitional efficiency- The ability to acquire the new knowledge easily using automatic
methods.

2. Propositional Logic in Artificial Intelligence

Propositional logic (PL) is the simplest form of logic where all the statements are made by
propositions. A proposition is a declarative statement which is either true or false. It is a
technique of knowledge representation in logical and mathematical form.
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Example:
a) It is Sunday.
b) The Sun rises from West (False proposition)
c) 3+3= 7(False proposition)
d) 5 is a prime number.

Following are some basic facts about propositional logic:

o Propositional logic is also called Boolean logic as it works on 0 and 1.
o In propositional logic, we use symbolic variables to represent the logic, and we can use
any symbol for a representing a proposition, such A, B, C, P, Q, R, etc.
o Propositions can be either true or false, but it cannot be both.
o Propositional logic consists of an object, relations or function, and logical connectives.
o These connectives are also called logical operators.
o The propositions and connectives are the basic elements of the propositional logic.
o Connectives can be said as a logical operator which connects two sentences.
o A proposition formula which is always true is called tautology, and it is also called a
valid sentence.
o A proposition formula which is always false is called Contradiction.
o A proposition formula which has both true and false values is called
o Statements which are questions, commands, or opinions are not propositions such as
"Where is Rohini", "How are you", "What is your name", are not propositions.

Syntax of propositional logic:

The syntax of propositional logic defines the allowable sentences for the knowledge
representation. There are two types of Propositions:
a. Atomic Propositions
b. Compound propositions

a. Atomic Proposition: Atomic propositions are the simple propositions. It consists of a single
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proposition symbol. These are the sentences which must be either true or false.
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Example:
a) 2+2 is 4, it is an atomic proposition as it is a true fact.
b) "The Sun is cold" is also a proposition as it is a false fact.

b. Compound proposition: Compound propositions are constructed by combining simpler or

atomic propositions, using parenthesis and logical connectives.

Example:
a) "It is raining today, and street is wet."
b) "Ankit is a doctor, and his clinic is in Mumbai."

2.1 Logical Connectives

Logical connectives are used to connect two simpler propositions or representing a sentence
logically. We can create compound propositions with the help of logical connectives. There are
mainly five connectives, which are given as follows:
1. Negation: A sentence such as ¬ P is called negation of P. A literal can be either Positive
literal or negative literal.
2. Conjunction: A sentence which has ∧ connective such as, P ∧ Q is called a conjunction.
Example: Rohan is intelligent and hardworking. It can be written as,
P= Rohan is intelligent,
Q= Rohan is hardworking. → P∧ Q.
3. Disjunction: A sentence which has ∨ connective, such as P ∨ Q. is called disjunction,
where P and Q are the propositions.
Example: "Ritika is a doctor or Engineer",
Here P= Ritika is Doctor. Q= Ritika is Doctor, so we can write it as P ∨ Q.
4. Implication: A sentence such as P → Q, is called an implication. Implications are also
known as if-then rules. It can be represented as
If it is raining, then the street is wet.
Let P= It is raining, and Q= Street is wet, so it is represented as P → Q
5. Biconditional: A sentence such as P⇔ Q is a Biconditional sentence, example If I am
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breathing, then I am alive

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P= I am breathing, Q= I am a live, it can be represented as P ⇔ Q.

Following is the summarized table for Propositional Logic Connectives:

Truth Table
In propositional logic, we need to know the truth values of propositions in all possible scenarios.
We can combine all the possible combination with logical connectives, and the representation of
these combinations in a tabular format is called Truth table. Following are the truth table for all
logical connectives:

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Truth table with three propositions:
We can build a proposition composing three propositions P, Q, and R. This truth table is made-
up of 8n Tuples as we have taken three proposition symbols.

2.3 Precedence of connectives

Just like arithmetic operators, there is a precedence order for propositional connectors or logical
operators. This order should be followed while evaluating a propositional problem. Following is
the list of the precedence order for operators:

Precedence Operators

First Precedence Parenthesis

Second Precedence Negation

Third Precedence Conjunction(AND)

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Fourth Precedence Disjunction(OR)

Fifth Precedence Implication

Six Precedence Biconditional

2.4 Logical equivalence

Logical equivalence is one of the features of propositional logic. Two propositions are said to be
logically equivalent if and only if the columns in the truth table are identical to each other.
Let's take two propositions A and B, so for logical equivalence, we can write it as A⇔B. In
below truth table we can see that column for ¬A∨ B and A→B, are identical hence A is
Equivalent to B.

2.4 Properties of Operators

1. Commutativity:
a. P∧ Q= Q ∧ P, or
b. P ∨ Q = Q ∨ P.
2. Associativity:
a. (P ∧ Q) ∧ R= P ∧ (Q ∧ R),
b. (P ∨ Q) ∨ R= P ∨ (Q ∨ R)
3. Identity element:
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a. P ∧ True = P,
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b. P ∨ True= True.
 4. Distributive:
a. P∧ (Q ∨ R) = (P ∧ Q) ∨ (P ∧ R).
b. P ∨ (Q ∧ R) = (P ∨ Q) ∧ (P ∨ R).
5. DE Morgan's Law:
a. ¬ (P ∧ Q) = (¬P) ∨ (¬Q)
b. ¬ (P ∨ Q) = (¬ P) ∧ (¬Q).
6. Double-negation elimination:
a. ¬ (¬P) = P.

2.5 Limitations of Propositional logic:

o We cannot represent relations like ALL, some, or none with propositional logic.
Example:
a. All the girls are intelligent.
b. Some apples are sweet.
Propositional logic has limited expressive power.
In propositional logic, we cannot describe statements in terms of their properties or
logical relationships.

3. First-Order Logic in Artificial intelligence

In the topic of Propositional logic, we have seen that how to represent statements using
propositional logic. But unfortunately, in propositional logic, we can only represent the facts,
which are either true or false. PL is not sufficient to represent the complex sentences or natural
language statements. The propositional logic has very limited expressive power. Consider the
following sentence, which we cannot represent using PL logic.
o "Some humans are intelligent", or
o "Sachin likes cricket."
To represent the above statements, PL logic is not sufficient, so we required some more powerful
logic, such as first-order logic.
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3.1 First-Order logic:
o First-order logic is another way of knowledge representation in artificial intelligence. It is
an extension to propositional logic.
o FOL is sufficiently expressive to represent the natural language statements in a concise
way.
o First-order logic is also known as Predicate logic or First-order predicate logic. First-
order logic is a powerful language that develops information about the objects in a more
easy way and can also express the relationship between those objects.
o First-order logic (like natural language) does not only assume that the world contains
facts like propositional logic but also assumes the following things in the world:
o Objects: A, B, people, numbers, colors, wars, theories, squares, pits, wumpus,
......
o Relations: It can be unary relation such as: red, round, is adjacent, or n-any
relation such as: the sister of, brother of, has color, comes between
o Function: Father of, best friend, third inning of, end of, ......
o As a natural language, first-order logic also has two main parts:
a. Syntax
b. Semantics

3.2 Syntax of First-Order logic:

The syntax of FOL determines which collection of symbols is a logical expression in first-order
logic. The basic syntactic elements of first-order logic are symbols. We write statements in short-
hand notation in FOL.

3.3 Basic Elements of First-order logic:

Following are the basic elements of FOL syntax:
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Constant 1, 2, A, John, Mumbai, cat,....

Variables x, y, z, a, b,....

Predicates Brother, Father, >,....

Function sqrt, LeftLegOf, ....

Connectives ∧, ∨, ¬, ⇒, ⇔

Equality ==

Quantifier ∀, ∃

Atomic sentences:
o Atomic sentences are the most basic sentences of first-order logic. These sentences are
formed from a predicate symbol followed by a parenthesis with a sequence of terms.
o We can represent atomic sentences as Predicate (term1, term2, ......, term n).

Example:
Ravi and Ajay are brothers: => Brothers(Ravi, Ajay).
Chinky is a cat: => cat (Chinky).

Complex Sentences:
o Complex sentences are made by combining atomic sentences using connectives.

First-order logic statements can be divided into two parts:

o Subject: Subject is the main part of the statement.
o Predicate: A predicate can be defined as a relation, which binds two atoms together in a
statement.

Consider the statement: "x is an integer.", it consists of two parts, the first part x is the subject
of the statement and second part "is an integer," is known as a predicate.
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3.4 Quantifiers in First-order logic:
o A quantifier is a language element which generates quantification, and quantification
specifies the quantity of specimen in the universe of discourse.
o These are the symbols that permit to determine or identify the range and scope of the
variable in the logical expression. There are two types of quantifier:
a. Universal Quantifier, (for all, everyone, everything)
b. Existential quantifier, (for some, at least one).

a. Universal Quantifier:
Universal quantifier is a symbol of logical representation, which specifies that the statement
within its range is true for everything or every instance of a particular thing.

The Universal quantifier is represented by a symbol ∀, which resembles an inverted A.

Note: In universal quantifier we use implication "→".

If x is a variable, then ∀x is read as:

o For all x
o For each x
o For every x.

Example:
All man drink coffee.
Let a variable x which refers to a cat so all x can be represented in UOD as below:
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∀x man(x) → drink (x, coffee).
It will be read as: There are all x where x is a man who drink coffee.

b. Existential Quantifier:
Existential quantifiers are the type of quantifiers, which express that the statement within its
scope is true for at least one instance of something.
It is denoted by the logical operator ∃, which resembles as inverted E. When it is used with a
predicate variable then it is called as an existential quantifier.

Note: In Existential quantifier we always use AND or Conjunction symbol ( ∧).

If x is a variable, then existential quantifier will be ∃x or ∃(x). And it will be read as:

o There exists a 'x.'

o For some 'x.'
o For at least one 'x.'
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Example:
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Some boys are intelligent.

∃x: boys(x) ∧ intelligent(x)
It will be read as: There are some x where x is a boy who is intelligent.

4. Forward Chaining and backward chaining in AI

In artificial intelligence, forward and backward chaining is one of the important topics, but
before understanding forward and backward chaining lets first understand that from where these
two terms came.

Inference engine:
The inference engine is the component of the intelligent system in artificial intelligence, which
applies logical rules to the knowledge base to infer new information from known facts. The first
inference engine was part of the expert system. Inference engine commonly proceeds in two
modes, which are:
a. Forward chaining
b. Backward chaining
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Horn Clause and Definite clause:

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Horn clause and definite clause are the forms of sentences, which enables knowledge base to use
a more restricted and efficient inference algorithm. Logical inference algorithms use forward and
backward chaining approaches, which require KB in the form of the first-order definite clause.

Definite clause: A clause which is a disjunction of literals with exactly one positive literal is
known as a definite clause or strict horn clause.

Horn clause: A clause which is a disjunction of literals with at most one positive literal is
known as horn clause. Hence all the definite clauses are horn clauses.

Example: (¬ p V ¬ q V k). It has only one positive literal k.

It is equivalent to p ∧ q → k.

A. Forward Chaining
Forward chaining is also known as a forward deduction or forward reasoning method when using
an inference engine. Forward chaining is a form of reasoning which start with atomic sentences
in the knowledge base and applies inference rules (Modus Ponens) in the forward direction to
extract more data until a goal is reached.

The Forward-chaining algorithm starts from known facts, triggers all rules whose premises are
satisfied, and add their conclusion to the known facts. This process repeats until the problem is
solved.

Properties of Forward-Chaining:
o It is a down-up approach, as it moves from bottom to top.
o It is a process of making a conclusion based on known facts or data, by starting from the
initial state and reaches the goal state.
o Forward-chaining approach is also called as data-driven as we reach to the goal using
available data.
o Forward -chaining approach is commonly used in the expert system, such as CLIPS,
business, and production rule systems.
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Consider the following famous example which we will use in both approaches:
Example:
"As per the law, it is a crime for an American to sell weapons to hostile nations. Country A, an
enemy of America, has some missiles, and all the missiles were sold to it by Robert, who is an
American citizen."

Prove that "Robert is criminal."

To solve the above problem, first, we will convert all the above facts into first-order definite
clauses, and then we will use a forward-chaining algorithm to reach the goal.

Facts Conversion into FOL:

o It is a crime for an American to sell weapons to hostile nations. (Let's say p, q, and r are
variables)
American (p) ∧ weapon(q) ∧ sells (p, q, r) ∧ hostile(r) → Criminal(p) ...(1)
o Country A has some missiles. ?p Owns(A, p) ∧ Missile(p). It can be written in two
definite clauses by using Existential Instantiation, introducing new Constant T1.
Owns(A, T1) ......(2)
Missile(T1) .......(3)
o All of the missiles were sold to country A by Robert.
?p Missiles(p) ∧ Owns (A, p) → Sells (Robert, p, A) ......(4)
o Missiles are weapons.
Missile(p) → Weapons (p) .......(5)
o Enemy of America is known as hostile.
Enemy(p, America) →Hostile(p) ........(6)
o Country A is an enemy of America.
Enemy (A, America) .........(7)
o Robert is American
American(Robert). ..........(8)
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Forward chaining proof:

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Step-1:

In the first step we will start with the known facts and will choose the sentences which do not
have implications, such as: American(Robert), Enemy(A, America), Owns(A, T1), and
Missile(T1). All these facts will be represented as below.

Step-2:
At the second step, we will see those facts which infer from available facts and with satisfied
premises.

Rule-(1) does not satisfy premises, so it will not be added in the first iteration.

Rule-(2) and (3) are already added.

Rule-(4) satisfy with the substitution {p/T1}, so Sells (Robert, T1, A) is added, which infers
from the conjunction of Rule (2) and (3).

Rule-(6) is satisfied with the substitution(p/A), so Hostile(A) is added and which infers from
Rule-(7).

Step-3:
At step-3, as we can check Rule-(1) is satisfied with the substitution {p/Robert, q/T1, r/A}, so
we can add Criminal(Robert) which infers all the available facts. And hence we reached our
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goal statement.
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Hence it is proved that Robert is Criminal using forward chaining approach.

B. Backward Chaining:
Backward-chaining is also known as a backward deduction or backward reasoning method when
using an inference engine. A backward chaining algorithm is a form of reasoning, which starts
with the goal and works backward, chaining through rules to find known facts that support the
goal.

Properties of backward chaining:

o It is known as a top-down approach.
o Backward-chaining is based on modus ponens inference rule.
o In backward chaining, the goal is broken into sub-goal or sub-goals to prove the facts
true.
o It is called a goal-driven approach, as a list of goals decides which rules are selected and
used.
o Backward -chaining algorithm is used in game theory, automated theorem proving tools,
inference engines, proof assistants, and various AI applications.
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o The backward-chaining method mostly used a depth-first search strategy for proof.
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Example:

In backward-chaining, we will use the same above example, and will rewrite all the rules.

o American (p) ∧ weapon(q) ∧ sells (p, q, r) ∧ hostile(r) → Criminal(p) ...(1)

Owns(A, T1) ........(2)
o Missile(T1)
o ?p Missiles(p) ∧ Owns (A, p) → Sells (Robert, p, A) ......(4)
o Missile(p) → Weapons (p) .......(5)
o Enemy(p, America) →Hostile(p) ........(6)
o Enemy (A, America) .........(7)
o American(Robert). ..........(8)

Backward-Chaining proof:
In Backward chaining, we will start with our goal predicate, which is Criminal(Robert), and
then infer further rules.

Step-1:
At the first step, we will take the goal fact. And from the goal fact, we will infer other facts, and
at last, we will prove those facts true. So our goal fact is "Robert is Criminal," so following is the
predicate of it.

Step-2:
At the second step, we will infer other facts form goal fact which satisfies the rules. So as we can
see in Rule-1, the goal predicate Criminal (Robert) is present with substitution {Robert/P}. So
we will add all the conjunctive facts below the first level and will replace p with Robert.

Here we can see American (Robert) is a fact, so it is proved here.

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Step-3:t At step-3, we will extract further fact Missile(q) which infer from Weapon(q), as it
satisfies Rule-(5). Weapon (q) is also true with the substitution of a constant T1 at q.

Step-4:
At step-4, we can infer facts Missile(T1) and Owns(A, T1) form Sells(Robert, T1, r) which
satisfies the Rule- 4, with the substitution of A in place of r. So these two statements are proved
here.
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Step-5:
At step-5, we can infer the fact Enemy(A, America) from Hostile(A) which satisfies Rule- 6.
And hence all the statements are proved true using backward chaining.

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5. Probabilistic Reasoning in Artificial intelligence
5.1 Uncertainty:
Till now, we have learned knowledge representation using first-order logic and propositional
logic with certainty, which means we were sure about the predicates. With this knowledge
representation, we might write A→B, which means if A is true then B is true, but consider a
situation where we are not sure about whether A is true or not then we cannot express this
statement, this situation is called uncertainty.

So to represent uncertain knowledge, where we are not sure about the predicates, we need
uncertain reasoning or probabilistic reasoning.

5.2 Causes of uncertainty:

Following are some leading causes of uncertainty to occur in the real world.
1. Information occurred from unreliable sources.
2. Experimental Errors
3. Equipment fault
4. Temperature variation
5. Climate change.

5.3 Probabilistic reasoning:

Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply the concept of
probability to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge. In probabilistic reasoning, we combine
probability theory with logic to handle the uncertainty.
We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it provides a way to handle the
uncertainty that is the result of someone's laziness and ignorance.
In the real world, there are lots of scenarios, where the certainty of something is not
confirmed, such as "It will rain today," "behavior of someone for some situations," "A match
between two teams or two players." These are probable sentences for which we can assume that
it will happen but not sure about it, so here we use probabilistic reasoning.
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5.4 Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI:

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o When there are unpredictable outcomes.

 o When specifications or possibilities of predicates becomes too large to handle.
o When an unknown error occurs during an experiment.

In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to solve problems with uncertain knowledge:
i. Bayes' rule
ii. Bayesian Statistics

5.5 Probability: Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event will occur. It is
the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. The value of probability always
remains between 0 and 1 that represent ideal uncertainties.
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, where P(A) is the probability of an event A.
P(A) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event A.

P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A.

We can find the probability of an uncertain event by using the below formula.

o P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.

o P(¬A) + P(A) = 1.

Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is called an event.

Sample space: The collection of all possible events is called sample space.
Random variables: Random variables are used to represent the events and objects in the real
world.
Prior probability: The prior probability of an event is probability computed before observing
new information.
Posterior Probability: The probability that is calculated after all evidence or information has
taken into account. It is a combination of prior probability and new information.

5.6 Conditional probability:

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Conditional probability is a probability of occurring an event when another event has already
happened.
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Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when event B has already occurred, "the
probability of A under the conditions of B", it can be written as:

Where P(A⋀B)= Joint probability of a and B

P(B)= Marginal probability of B.

If the probability of A is given and we need to find the probability of B, then it will be given as:

It can be explained by using the below Venn diagram, where B is occurred event, so sample
space will be reduced to set B, and now we can only calculate event A when event B is already
occurred by dividing the probability of P(A⋀B) by P( B ).

Example:
In a class, there are 70% of the students who like English and 40% of the students who likes
English and mathematics, and then what is the percent of students those who like English also
like mathematics?
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 Solution:
Let, A is an event that a student likes Mathematics
B is an event that a student likes English.

Hence, 57% are the students who like English also like Mathematics.

6. Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence

6.1 Bayes' theorem:
Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian reasoning, which
determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.
In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of two
random events.
Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes. The Bayesian
inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is fundamental to Bayesian statistics.
It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).
Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by observing new
information of the real world.

Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes' theorem, we can determine the
probability of cancer more accurately with the help of age.
Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability of event A with
known event B:
As from product rule we can write:
1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or
Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:
1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)
Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:
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The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem. This equation is basic of
most modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.
It shows the simple relationship between joint and conditional probabilities. Here,

P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to calculate, and it will be read as Probability of
hypothesis A when we have occurred an evidence B.

P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that hypothesis is true, then we calculate
the probability of evidence.

P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of hypothesis before considering the evidence

P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence.

In the equation (a), in general, we can write P (B) = P(A)*P(B|Ai), hence the Bayes' rule can be
written as:

Where A1, A2, A3,........, An is a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

6.2 Applying Bayes' rule:

Bayes' rule allows us to compute the single term P(B|A) in terms of P(A|B), P(B), and P(A). This
is very useful in cases where we have a good probability of these three terms and want to
determine the fourth one. Suppose we want to perceive the effect of some unknown cause, and
want to compute that cause, then the Bayes' rule becomes:

Example-1:
Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis with a stiff neck?
Given Data:
A doctor is aware that disease meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff neck, and it occurs 80%
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of the time. He is also aware of some more facts, which are given as follows:
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o The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.

 o The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%.
Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition that patient has
meningitis. , so we can calculate the following as:
P(a|b) = 0.8
P(b) = 1/30000
P(a)= .02

Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750 patients has meningitis disease with a stiff neck.

Example-2:
Question: From a standard deck of playing cards, a single card is drawn. The probability that the
card is king is 4/52, then calculate posterior probability P(King|Face), which means the drawn
face card is a king card.

Solution:

P(king): probability that the card is King= 4/52= 1/13

P(face): probability that a card is a face card= 3/13

P(Face|King): probability of face card when we assume it is a king = 1

Putting all values in equation (i) we will get:

Application of Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence:

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Following are some applications of Bayes' theorem:
o It is used to calculate the next step of the robot when the already executed step is given.
o Bayes' theorem is helpful in weather forecasting.
o It can solve the Monty Hall problem.

7. Utility Theory in Artificial Intelligence

The agents use the utility theory for making decisions. It is the mapping from lotteries to the real
numbers. An agent is supposed to have various preferences and can choose the one which best
fits his necessity.

7.1 Utility scales and Utility assessments

To help an agent in making decisions and behave accordingly, we need to build a decision-
theoretic system. For this, we need to understand the utility function. This process is known
as preference elicitation In this, the agents are provided with some choices and using the
observed preferences, the respected utility function is chosen.

Generally, there is no scale for the utility function. But, a scale can be established by fixing the
boiling and freezing point of water. Thus, the utility is fixed as:
U(S)=uT for best possible cases
U(S)= u? for worst possible cases.

A normalized utility function uses a utility scale with value uT=1, and u? =0. For example, a
utility scale between uT and u? is given. Thereby an agent can choose a utility value between
any prize Z and the standard lottery [p, u_; (1?p), u?]. Here, p denotes the probability which is
adjusted until the agent is adequate between Z and the standard lottery.

Like in medical, transportation, and environmental decision problems, we use two measurement
units: micromort or QUALY(quality-adjusted life year) to measure the chances of death of a
person.
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 7.2 Money Utility
Economics is the root of utility theory. It is the most demanding thing in human life. Therefore,
an agent prefers more money to less, where all other things remain equal. The agent exhibits a
monotonic preference(more is preferred over less) for getting more money. In order to evaluate
the more utility value, the agent calculates the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) of that
particular thing. But this does not mean that choosing a monotonic value is the right decision
always.

7.3 Multi-attribute utility functions

Multi-attribute utility functions include those problems whose outcomes are categorized by two
or more attributes. Such problems are handled by multi-attribute utility theory.

Terminology used:
 Dominance: If there are two choices say A and B, where A is more effective than B. It means
that A will be chosen. Thus, A will dominate B. Therefore, multi-attribute utility function offers
two types of dominance:
i. Strict Dominance: If there are two websites T and D, where the cost of T is less and
provides better service than D. Obviously, the customer will prefer T rather than D.
Therefore, T strictly dominates D. Here, the attribute values are known.
ii. Stochastic Dominance: It is a generalized approach where the attribute value is
unknown. It frequently occurs in real problems. Here, a uniform distribution is given,
where that choice is picked, which stochastically dominates the other choices. The exact
relationship can be viewed by examing the cumulative distribution of the attributes.
 Preference Structure: Representation theorems are used to show that an agent with a preference
structure has a utility function as:
U(x1, . . . , xn) = F[f1(x1), . . . , fn(xn)],
where F indicates any arithmetic function such as an addition function.

Therefore, preference can be done in two ways :

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 Preference without uncertainty: The preference where two attributes are preferentially
independent of the third attribute. It is because the preference between the outcomes of the first
two attributes does not depend on the third one.
 Preference with uncertainty: This refers to the concept of preference structure with
uncertainty. Here, the utility independence extends the preference independence where a set of
attributes X is utility independent of another Y set of attributes, only if the value of attribute in X
set is independent of Y set attribute value. A set is said to be mutually utility independent (MUI)
if each subset is utility-independent of the remaining attribute.

8. Hidden Markov Model (HMM)

8.1 Introduction
 Hidden Markov Model is an temporal probabilistic model for which a single
discontinuous random variable determines all the states of the system.
 It means that, possible values of variable = Possible states in the system.
 For example: Sunlight can be the variable and sun can be the only possible state.
 The structure of Hidden Markov model is restricted to the fact that basic algorithms can
be implemented using matrix representations.

8.2 The Concept

 In Hidden Markov Model, every individual states has limited number of transitions and
emissions.
 Probability is assigned for each transition between states.
 Hence, the past states are totally independent of future states.
 The fact that HMM is called hidden because of its ability of being a memory less process
i.e. its future and past states are not dependent on each other.
 Since, HMM is rich in mathematical structure it can be implemented for practical
applications.
 This can be achieved on two algorithms called as:
1. Forward Algorithm.
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2. Backward Algorithm.
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8.3 Applications:
 Speech Recognition.
 Gesture Recognition.
 Language Recognition.
 Motion Sensing and Analysis.
 Protein Folding.

8.4 Markov Model

 Markov model is an un-precised model that is used in the systems that does not have any
fixed patterns of occurrence i.e. randomly changing systems.
 Markov model is based upon the fact of having a random probability distribution or
pattern that may be analysed statistically but cannot be predicted precisely.
 In Markov model, it is assumed that the future states only depends upon the current states
and not the previously occurred states.
 There are four common Markov models out of which the most commonly used is the
hidden Markov model.

Types of Markov Model

8.5 Hidden Markov Models

A hidden Markov model (HMM) is an augmentation of the Markov chain to include
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observations. Just like the state transition of the Markov chain, an HMM also includes
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observations of the state. These observations can be partial in that different states can map to the
same observation and noisy in that the same state can stochastically map to different
observations at different times.
The assumptions behind an HMM are that the state at time t+1 only depends on the state at
time t, as in the Markov chain. The observation at time t only depends on the state at time t. The
observations are modeled using the variable Ot for each time t whose domain is the set of
possible observations. The belief network representation of an HMM is depicted in Figure.
Although the belief network is shown for four stages, it can proceed indefinitely.

Figure : A hidden Markov model as a belief network

A stationary HMM includes the following probability distributions:

 P(S0) specifies initial conditions.
 P(St+1|St) specifies the dynamics.
 P(Ot|St) specifies the sensor model.
There are a number of tasks that are common for HMMs.
The problem of filtering or belief-state monitoring is to determine the current state based on the
current and previous observations, namely to determine
P(Si|O0,...,Oi).

Note that all state and observation variables after Si are irrelevant because they are not observed
and can be ignored when this conditional distribution is computed.
The problem of smoothing is to determine a state based on past and future observations.
Suppose an agent has observed up to time k and wants to determine the state at time i for i<k; the
smoothing problem is to determine
P(Si|O0,...,Ok).
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All of the variables Si and Vi for i>k can be ignored.

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9. Bayesian Belief Network in Artificial Intelligence
Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with probabilistic events and to
solve a problem which has uncertainty. We can define a Bayesian network as:
"A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of variables and
their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph." It is also called a Bayes network,
belief network, decision network, or Bayesian model.

Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from a probability
distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and anomaly detection.

Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the relationship between
multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can also be used in various tasks
including prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics, automated insight, reasoning, time series
prediction, and decision making under uncertainty.

Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts opinions, and it
consists of two parts:
i. Directed Acyclic Graph
ii. Table of conditional probabilities.

The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents and solve decision problems under
uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence diagram.
A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links), where:

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 o Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can
be continuous or discrete.
o Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional probabilities
between random variables. These directed links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the
graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other node, and if there is no
directed link that means that nodes are independent with each other
o In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are random variables represented by
the nodes of the network graph.
o If we are considering node B, which is connected with node A by a directed
arrow, then node A is called the parent of Node B.
o Node C is independent of node A.

Note: The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic graph. Hence, it is known as
a directed acyclic graph or DAG.

The Bayesian network has mainly two components:

i. Causal Component
ii. Actual numbers

Each node in the Bayesian network has condition probability distribution P(Xi |Parent(Xi) ),
which determines the effect of the parent on that node.

Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional probability. So let's
first understand the joint probability distribution:

9.1 Joint Probability Distribution

If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the probabilities of a different combination of x1,
x2, x3.. xn, are known as Joint probability distribution.
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P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following way in terms of the joint probability
distribution.
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= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-1|xn]P[xn].

In general for each variable Xi, we can write the equation as:

P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ))

9.2 Explanation of Bayesian Network:

Let's understand the Bayesian network through an example by creating a directed acyclic graph

Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary. The alarm reliably
responds at detecting a burglary but also responds for minor earthquakes. Harry has two
neighbors David and Sophia, who have taken a responsibility to inform Harry at work when they
hear the alarm. David always calls Harry when he hears the alarm, but sometimes he got
confused with the phone ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia likes to
listen to high music, so sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like to compute
the probability of Burglary Alarm.

Problem:
Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a burglary, nor an
earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called the Harry.

Solution:
o The Bayesian network for the above problem is given below. The network structure is
showing that burglary and earthquake is the parent node of the alarm and directly
affecting the probability of alarm's going off, but David and Sophia's calls depend on
alarm probability.
o The network is representing that our assumptions do not directly perceive the burglary
and also do not notice the minor earthquake, and they also not confer before calling.
o The conditional distributions for each node are given as conditional probabilities table or
CPT.
o Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the entries in the table represent an
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exhaustive set of cases for the variable.

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 o In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents contains 2K probabilities. Hence, if
there are two parents, then CPT will contain 4 probability values

List of all events occurring in this network:

o Burglary (B)
o Earthquake(E)
o Alarm(A)
o David Calls(D)
o Sophia calls(S)

We can write the events of problem statement in the form of probability: P[D, S, A, B, E], can
rewrite the above probability statement using joint probability distribution:
P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]

=P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]

= P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]

= P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]

= P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]

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Let's take the observed probability for the Burglary and earthquake component:

P(B= True) = 0.002, which is the probability of burglary.

P(B= False)= 0.998, which is the probability of no burglary.

P(E= True)= 0.001, which is the probability of a minor earthquake

P(E= False)= 0.999, Which is the probability that an earthquake not occurred.

We can provide the conditional probabilities as per the below tables:

Conditional probability table for Alarm A:

The Conditional probability of Alarm A depends on Burglar and earthquake:

B E P(A= True) P(A= False)

True True 0.94 0.06

True False 0.95 0.04

False True 0.31 0.69

False False 0.001 0.999

Conditional probability table for David Calls:

The Conditional probability of David that he will call depends on the probability of Alarm.

A P(D= True) P(D= False)

True 0.91 0.09

False 0.05 0.95

Conditional probability table for Sophia Calls:

The Conditional probability of Sophia that she calls is depending on its Parent Node "Alarm."
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 A P(S= True) P(S= False)

True 0.75 0.25

False 0.02 0.98

From the formula of joint distribution, we can write the problem statement in the form of
probability distribution:
P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P (¬E).
= 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999
= 0.00068045.

Hence, a Bayesian network can answer any query about the domain by using Joint distribution.

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References

1. Stuart Russell, Peter Norvig, “Artificial Intelligence – A Modern Approach”, Pearson

Education
2. Elaine Rich and Kevin Knight, “Artificial Intelligence”, McGraw-Hill
3. E Charniak and D McDermott, “Introduction to Artificial Intelligence”, Pearson Education
4. Dan W. Patterson, “Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems”, Prentice Hall of India
5. https://www.javatpoint.com/artificial-intelligence
6. https://www.educba.com/propositional-logic-in-ai/
7. https://www.javatpoint.com/first-order-logic-in-artificial-intelligence
8. https://www.tutorialandexample.com/utility-functions-in-artificial-intelligence/

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