CENG 6101 - Lesson 3b - Estimating and Bidding

CENG 6101 Project Management
Estimating and Bidding
Abraham Assefa Tsehayae, PhD
Abraham Assefa Tsehayae (PhD) 1/52

Tools and Techniques for Cost Estimating
Top-down estimating (Analogous estimating, based on
previous projects, conceptual cost estimating)
Bottom-up estimating (detailed, first principles, lowest
elements in WBS)
Parametric estimating (statistical relationship between
historical data and project variables/characteristics)
Abraham Assefa Tsehayae (PhD) Project Management Estimating 2/52

Basic Elements of Costing Work
Labour
Equipment
Materials – temporary, permanent
Subcontracts
Management, Engineering, Supervision
Project Indirect Costs (Project Overheads)
Risk and Opportunity (Contingency)
Corporate Overheads
Profit

Basic Elements of Costing Work
1. Direct Costs
2. Indirect Costs
• overheads, preliminaries
3. Risk and Opportunity Allowance
• contingency
4. Margin/Markup
= corporate overheads + profit

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Steps in Estimating Process
1. Identify bid opportunity: public notices, trades

newsletters, trade magazines, invitation to bid
2. Make decision to bid: corporate strategy, need for
work, type and location of project, competition
3. Study plans and specifications: review scope, visit site,
send out requests for quotations, prepare estimating
schedule
4. Break project into work packages – WBS
5. Do quantity takeoff of each work package: record
quantity and unit measure
6. Determine construction methods (CMS), equipment
and labour requirements (crews)

Steps in Estimating Process
7. Estimate labour and equipment productivity for each
operation
8. Obtain and evaluate quotations from subcontractors
and suppliers: consider both price and quality of work
9. Price items of work in WBS: direct costs
10. Prepare project schedule
11. Price indirect (overhead) costs: time-based
12. Consider alternatives, “what-if” scenarios
13. Perform risk/opportunity analysis
14. Add corporate overhead and profit margin
15. Spread costs – bid unbalancing, strategic
16. Calculate unit prices and prepare owner’s unit rate
schedule or bill of quantities (BOQ)

How Do We Measure Productivity?
Productivity = Output (units of products)
Input (Resources)
Labour Productivity = Output (installed qty)
Work Hours
Productivity refers to how efficiently and effectively a
company can turn its input (labour and capital) into
products and services
Labour Productivity
= units of input (work hours) per unit of output (input/output)
(e.g. 0.5 mhrs/m3 for placing concrete)
OR
= output/input (e.g. 2 m3/mhr)

Definition of Productivity
Production
= units of output per unit time
(e.g. 100 m3/hour for placing concrete,
50 m2/hour for formwork erection)
Can change production rate by changing number of
manhours available in one hour, by changing crew size or
shift length
i.e., production (m3/h)
= productivity (m3/mhr) * (mhr/h)

Productivity vs. Production
Production indicates how much work is being done in a
given time interval; how fast work is progressing;
indicates if schedule objectives will be met; not an
indication of how much money is being spent
Productivity is a measure of efficiency of labour and/or
equipment crew; indicates if cost objectives will be met

Estimating Direct Costs

Cost Elements of Labour
basic wage rate, overtime wage rate
shift pay differentials
site allowance, foreman allowance
travel allowance
meal allowance (subsistence pay)
vacation pay, sick pay, statutory holidays
unemployment insurance, payroll tax
workers’ compensation and other insurance
retirement savings (pension) plan (optional)
health insurance (optional)
Average labour burden: 30% of base wage

Estimating Construction Costs, Peurifoy and
Oberlender, 2002, McGraw-Hill
13/52
Example of Labour Estimate
𝑃𝑎𝑦 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 = 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑙𝑦 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 + 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 + 𝑆𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
;< ;<
= 5 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑥 8 =>? @ 1.0 + 5 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑥 2 =>? @ 1.5 + (1 𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑥 10 ℎ𝑟/𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑥 2.0)
= 40.0 + 15.0 + 20.0

= 75 ℎ𝑟
𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 = (10 ℎ𝑟/𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑥 5 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠) + (10 ℎ𝑟/𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑥 1 𝑑𝑎𝑦) = 60 ℎ𝑟
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑃𝑎𝑦 = [(𝑃𝑎𝑦 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠) / (𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠)] 𝑥 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑊𝑎𝑔𝑒
𝑰𝒓𝒐𝒏𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒓 𝑪𝒐𝒔𝒕𝒔:
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑦 = (75/60 𝑥 $20.97/ℎ𝑟 = $26.2125/ℎ𝑟
𝑆𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑇𝑎𝑥 = 7.65% 𝑥 $26.2125/ℎ𝑟 = $2.0053/ℎ𝑟
𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑇𝑎𝑥 = 3.0% 𝑥 $26.2125/ℎ𝑟 = $0.7864/ℎ𝑟
𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑠’ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = $12.50/$100 𝑥 $20.97/ℎ𝑟 = $2.6213/ℎ𝑟
𝑃𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦/𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑚𝑎𝑔𝑒 = $3.25/$100 𝑥 $20.97/ℎ𝑟 = $ 0.6815/ℎ𝑟
𝐹𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠 = $3.15/ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟
$kl.mlno $kl.mp
∴ 𝐼𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 = ;<
= ;<
≅ 1.69 ∗ 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒

Cost Elements of Labour
RS Means

Cost Elements of Owned Equipment
depreciation cost
salvage value
annual ownership cost
replacement of wearing parts and major overhauls
routine maintenance cost
fuel or electricity cost
operator cost

i = MARR (minimum attractive rate of return) = interest for

borrowing money + risk + average cost for taxes, insurance,
storage

Example of Equipment Estimate


𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 (𝑖) = 9 + 5 + 3 = 17%
𝑖(1 + 𝑖)v 𝑖
𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝐴 = 𝑃 − 𝐹
(1 + 𝑖)v −1 (1 + 𝑖)v −1
0.17(1 + 0.17)p 0.17

𝐴 = $145,000 − $25,000 = $37, 683.48
(1 + 0.17)p−1 1 + 0.17 p − 1
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 = 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 / 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 = $37, 683.48/2,000 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 = $18.84


Cost Elements of Rented Equipment
rental rate
replacement of wearing parts and major
overhauls beyond conditions covered by rental
rate
routine maintenance cost
fuel or electricity cost
operator cost

Cost Elements of Materials and Subcontracts
Materials (Permanent and Temporary)

unit cost and quantity
transportation and delivery cost
escalation and/or rise and fall
Subcontracts
unit cost and quantity

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Oberlender, 2002, McGraw-Hill 26/52
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Estimating Vs. Tendering
ESTIMATING:
Assessing direct costs and indirect costs
TENDERING/BIDDING:
Assessing risk and opportunity allowance and margin
RISK AND OPPORTUNITY ASSESSMENT:
Identifying and assessing the impact on costs of
potential project risks (monetary losses) and
opportunities (monetary gains)

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Risk and Opportunity Assessment
Identify items in the project which may have potential
cost overruns (risks) or cost savings (opportunities)
Assess the most likely $ cost or savings associated with
each item
Assess the probability of each cost or savings occurring
Multiply the $ cost or savings by its probability of
occurrence
Sum up the total resultant costs and the total resultant
savings; the difference between the two is the net project
risk/opportunity allowance (contingency) (may be + or - )

Risk Factors
Unexpected climatic conditions
Unexpected geological or soil conditions
Uncertainty in estimated productivity
Delay in schedule
Delay in delivery of materials

Opportunity Factors
Innovation in project design or construction methods
Negotiated deals with supplier(s)
Acceleration in schedule
Changes in contract scope

Other Methods of R/O Assessment
By cost category breakdown, to reflect amount of risk
inherent in each category: labour, equipment, materials,
subcontracts
Using “what-if” scenarios – best, most likely, worst
Included in direct job cost items
Included in margin (markup)
Risk analysis modeling, e.g. using @RISK and Monte
Carlo Simulation

Margin/Markup Assessment
Must at least cover corporate overheads, based on
budgeted turnover
Depends on the objectives of the company in tendering
Depends on the amount of risk/opportunity assigned
Depends on conditions within the company, advantages
and disadvantages, client, competition, state of the
market, economy

Items Covered by Markup
Corporate overheads
Profit
Risk and opportunity allowance (in some cases)

Objectives in Tendering
To win the project
To meet budgeted turnover requirements; to deploy idle
resources
To be seen as competitive; to build a reputation
To break into a new market; strategic value
To test a new geographical area
To maximize project’s contribution to profit

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Factors Influencing Markup Size
Need for work
Desire for project
Amount of competition
Market conditions
Magnitude of risks and opportunities
Relationship with client
Strategic value of project
Likelihood of follow-on work
Complexity of project
Previous experience of contractor
Quality of estimate

Project Management Estimating 40/52
Methods of Setting Markup
Based on minimum or base margin - break even analysis
Based on resource cost category breakdown (to reflect
risks inherent in each)
Based on experience and market conditions

Break Even Analysis
To determine minimum (base) markup
OR
To determine minimum volume of work (turnover) for firm to
break even (i.e. to cover corporate overhead costs,
without making any profit).
Method A:
Predict turnover level ($) for coming year and calculate
minimum markup (%).
Method B:
Determine gross markup (%) (i.e. profit plus corporate
overheads) on projects in coming year and calculate
minimum volume of work (turnover) ($).
Steps in Break Even Analysis
Forecast corporate overheads for coming year:
Previous year = $200,000
10% inflation = $20,000
(can be applied before or after firm growth)
Firm growth = $20,000
→Forecasted corporate overheads $240,000

Method A:
Forecast turnover level, e.g. $2,000,000
Minimum Markup
= Corporate Overheads / Turnover
= $240,000/$2,000,000
= 12%
Method B:
Forecast gross markup, e.g. 12%
Use break even analysis equations:
Revenue - Project Costs = Gross Profit [1]
Gross Profit - Corporate Overheads = Net Profit [2]
Gross Profit / Revenue = Gross Markup [3]

At Break Even point, Net Profit = 0, so:
From [2], Gross profit = Corporate Overheads
From [1], Revenue = Project Costs + Corporate Overheads
From [3], Corporate Overheads / Revenue = Gross Markup
Revenue = Corporate Overheads/Gross Markup
In our example:
Revenue = $240,000 / 0.12 = $2,000,000

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Provisional and Prime Cost Items
PROVISIONAL QUANTITIES:
For work which may or may not occur, or
Where variations are expected in quantities
Safer not to allocate overhead or contingency (R/O) spread
to these items, since they may or may not occur and/or
final amounts unknown
PRIME COST ITEMS:
Owner-stipulated sum of money, adopted by all bidders,
for work not yet fully detailed
Amount specified can not be modified by bidders
Spread overhead (indirect costs) and contingency to all
items except provisional and prime cost items
Use provisional and prime cost items to calculate markup
(margin), but spread markup to all items except prime cost
items
Strategic Spreading
For unit price contracts: paid on basis of actual quantities
installed
Strategic spreading to benefit from errors in owner’s
quantities
Increase unit prices of items that are underestimated by
owner (load these items)
Decrease unit prices of items that are overestimated by
owner
Can be used to (1) reduce overall bid price to be more
competitive, or (2) to increase profit margin while
maintaining original bid price

Example of front-end loading of bid prices
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Computer-Aided Estimation Computer-aided estimating
support and functionality.The following list shows how software is used for com-
Software application for common estimating tasks:
mon estimating tasks:
Application Spreadsheet Word Database Specialist

processor package
Cost planning X X X
Tender register X X X
List sub-contractors and suppliers X X X X
Enquiry letters X X
Resource price lists X X X
Calculate all-in rates X X
Produce standard bills for X X
repetitious work
Bar schedules X X
Rate build-ups X X
Extend and total bills of quantity X X
Lists of company staff costs X X
and plant
Calculate costs of fluctuations X X
Adjust for late quotations X X
Calculate/plot cashflow analysis X
Reports for management X X
Adjust individual resources X
Adjust/distribute mark-up on rates X X
Gross bill for client X X
Bill of allowances for construction X X
• Spreadsheet (limited scope in comparison with a specialist package for estimat-

ing, butAbraham
more flexible).
Assefa Tsehayae (PhD) Project Management Estimating 50/52
• Word-processor package.
• Database programme or package with database facilities.
Specialist package for computer-aided estimating.
1. The facility to pick work items from a list which has been created for standard
building types.
2. Multiple windows which can be opened within a program to show how
Computer-Aided Estimation
changing the figures in one part of the program affect another. In Fig. 20.2
an estimator can see in one window the items he can select for his tender; in
the other the selected items are growing into a bill of quantities.
3. A number of applications can be ‘open’ at any time.This means that information
Easy Estimator Software:
produced in one program can be copied into another. For example, an estimator
Fig. 20.2 Creating a bill of quantities using a Windows program

RSMeans:
270

Construction Financial Management
Financial management includes the processes to acquire
and manage the financial resources for the project.
It is more concerned with revenue source and
analyzing/updating net cash flows for the construction
project than is cost management.
Client typically pays for the cost of the project by means
of periodic or interim progress payments to both the
consultant and contractor.
Accordingly, the client needs to have the necessary
financial management processes in place so as to secure
and manage the financial responsibilities of the projects.
The consultant has to finance the initial costs of hiring
employees and in case of supervisions works, the
consultant has to finance the monthly expenses of
employees. Same is the case for the Contractors.

Construction Financial Management
Contractors or consultants are able to finance this using
advance payments or by themselves or can obtain a short
term loan to cover this initial period.
Construction Financial
Management Manual
8.1 Financial Planning

8.3 Administration and Records
1. Inputs: 8.2 Financial Control 1. Inputs:
- Sources of funds, Contract
1. Inputs: - Project financial status reports,
requirements, Economic - Contract requirements, Project Contract requirements, Project
environment, Estimated
financial plan, Cost and revenue financial plan
construction cost, Project duration, baselines, Change requests 2. Mechanism:
Tax benefits, Financial advisor, Risk
2. Mechanism: - Techniques, Tools, Technical
factors - Techniques, Tools, Technical Competence, Behavioral
2. Mechanism:
Competence, Behavioral Competence
- Techniques, Tools, Technical Competence 3. Controls and Constraints
Competence, Behavioral
3. Controls and Constraints 4. Output:
Competence 4. Output: - Traceability of financial systems,
3. Controls and Constraints
- Corrective action Lessons learned
4. Output:
- Project financial plan, Legal entity,
Expenditure authority

Project Cash Flow Analysis
Cash flow measurement is a prime way of determining
the need for financing needs of a construction project.
Construction contractors rely on cash inflow to balance
out the costs incurred in order to keep financial costs to a
minimum.
Money outflow is basically the scheduled payments for
the sub-contractors, vendors, and fees, insurance, taxes,
salaries for direct labor and support staff, and the cost of
financing.
Working capital for construction projects represents the
excess between the current assets assigned to the
project over current liabilities of the project.

S-Curve (x $1 m)
0 3 7 12 18 25 32 38 42 44 44
(1-month delay)
Cumulative mark-up
0.24 0.56 0.96 1.44 2.00 2.56 3.04 3.36 3.52 3.52 3.52

(8%)
Cumulative value of
3.24 7.56 12.96 19.44 27.00 34.56 41.04 45.36 47.52 47.52 47.52
work (x $1 m)
Cumulative value
3.08 7.18 12.31 18.47 25.65 32.83 38.99 43.09 45.144 45.144 45.144
less 5% retention
TheCumulative
maximuminterim
working capital needed for construction
0 3.08 7.18 12.31 18.47 25.65 32.83 38.99 43.09 45.144 47.52
projects is determined by taking the vertical differences
Payment (x $1 m)
between the S-Curve and the Cumulative interim payment

Table 8.3 – Cumulative expenditure and cumulative interim payment against time
graphs.
The two curvesThe are drawn working
in Fig. 8.4 as follows.capital analysis shall cover the
construction as well as the defect liability period.

Fig. 8.4 – S-Curve and the cumulative interim payment graph of the worked example
Download free eBooks at bookboon.com

Consider a construction project having a total of 16
activities. The contract completion date of the project is 5
months and 5 days and the defect liability period is 3
S-Curve and Working Capital Financing
months.
Construction The
Financial contract specified a 2.5% retention
Management of a Constructionwhich
Project
can be released at the end of the 8 month.

Develop S-Curve: The S-curve is derived by summing
the cost of each task in given month.
Develop of Cumulative Interim Payment Graph: The

length of the period is usually made based on the
specified minimum amount for interim payment.
Suppose for the project shown above, the interim
payments are effected on monthly basis:
S-Curve and Working Capital Financing
Construction Financial Management of a Construction Project
Development of Cumulative Interim Payment Graph
The cumulative interim payment graph is a step curve as shown in Fig. 8.2. It reflects the time and the
End of month 2
amount of money the contractor 3 from the client
receives 4 cumulatively5 from the very6 beginning to7the 8
3,000
very end of the contract. According5,000
to Fig. 8.1, the2,500 1,350
contract completion date is 51,020
months and 5 days, 0 330
Payment (‘000)
and the last few days are for “clean up and leave site”. In order to make the graph simple, we assume that
the contract is substantially completed in 5 months. The maintenance period (or defect liability period)
Cumulative 3,000 8,000 10,500 11,850 12,870 12,870 13,200
is assumed to be 3 months, and so the retention money (2.5% of the contract sum) can be released at
payment
the (‘000)
end of month 8.
Fig. 8.2 – Cumulative interim payment graph

8.4 The Two Graphs combined
When the S-Curve (the same curve as in Fig. 8.1) and the cumulative interim payment graph are combined
Project Cash Flow Analysis Fig. 8.2 – Cumulative interim payment graph
8.4 The Two Graphs combined

Working Capital Requirement Analysis: The S-Curve
When the S-Curve (the same curve as in Fig. 8.1) and the cumulative interim payment graph are combined
to be with
shown inthe interim
one diagram, Fig. 8.3payment
shows how the graph are combined to be
diagram looks.
shown in one diagram, and the graph provides the
maximum working capital needs of the project.
Largest vertical difference occurs immediately before the end of month 2, and
Fig. 8.3 – The S-Curve and the cumulative interim payment graph combined
the maximum amount of working capital required is $7,580,000 for the project.
Abraham
Download free eBooks at Assefa Tsehayae (PhD)
bookboon.com Project Management Estimating 59/52
104
Assignment
Read and be prepared to discuss:
n Mak, S. and Picken, D. (2000). Using Risk Analysis to
Determine Construction Project Contingencies. Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, 126(2): 130-
136.

References:
CIV E 601: Project Management, Lecture Notes, Fayek, A. R. University

of Alberta, 2013.
Project Management: Techniques in Planning and Controlling
Construction Projects, 2nd Edition, Ahuja, Dozzi, and AbouRizk, John
Wiley and Sons, 1994.
Estimating Construction Costs, Peurifoy and Oberlender, 2002,
McGraw-Hill.
Tang, S.L. (2014). Construction Financial Management. 2nd edition,
bookboon.com.
Brook, M. (2004). Estimating and Tendering for Construction Work. 3rd
edition, Elsevier Ltd.

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CENG 6101 Project Management

Estimating and Bidding

Abraham Assefa Tsehayae, PhD

Abraham Assefa Tsehayae (PhD) 1/52

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1. Identify bid opportunity: public notices, trades

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= 40.0 + 15.0 + 20.0

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i = MARR (minimum attractive rate of return) = interest for

Estimating Construction Costs, Peurifoy and

Estimating Construction Costs, Peurifoy and

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0.17(1 + 0.17)p 0.17

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Estimating Construction Costs, Peurifoy and

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Materials (Permanent and Temporary)

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→Forecasted corporate overheads $240,000

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Application Spreadsheet Word Database Specialist

• Spreadsheet (limited scope in comparison with a specialist package for estimat-

Fig. 20.2 Creating a bill of quantities using a Windows program

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8.1 Financial Planning

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Project Cash Flow Analysis

between the S-Curve and the Cumulative interim payment

construction as well as the defect liability period.

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can be released at the end of the 8 month.

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