MPS Jan 2024 Compendium
MPS Jan 2024 Compendium
MPS Jan 2024 Compendium
January 2024
Consolidated by
Real Sector
Growth …………………………………………………………………........ 1
Savings and Investment .……….……………………………………... 3
Inflation …………………………………………………………………….. 5
External Sector
Balance of Payments …………………………………………………... 8
Trade and Foreign Investment……………………………………… 9
Global Economy …………………………………………………………. 10
Fiscal Accounts and Debt
Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances ……………….. 12
Government Domestic Debt ……………………………………........ 13
Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities………………………... 14
Overall Debt and Liabilities.……………………………………….... 15
Monetary Sector
Monetary and Credit Aggregates ………………………………..… 16
Private Sector Credit ………………………………………………….... 18
Key Indicators of Monetary Sector………………………………… 19
Trends in Monetary Aggregates……………………………..……… 20
Financial Markets
Money Market ………………………………………………………….... 21
Foreign Exchange Market …………………………………………… 27
Capital Market ………………………………………………………….... 29
Financial Soundness Indicators …………………………………… 30
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Growth
Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector* (percent)
Cumulative Change Overall change
YoY Change (Nov) 12‐months MA change
Groups Weights During (Jul‐Nov) (Jul‐Jun)
FY24 FY23 FY24 FY23 FY24 FY23 FY23 FY22
Overall 78.4 1.6 ‐4.9 ‐9.8 7.3 ‐0.8 ‐2.3 ‐10.3 11.7
Food 10.7 1.8 ‐13.5 ‐3.5 5.4 4.3 ‐8.2 ‐7.1 8.3
Beverages 3.8 19.1 ‐10.1 ‐2.6 ‐4.6 2.3 ‐7.8 ‐6.6 0.9
Tobacco 2.1 ‐43.8 ‐20.2 ‐35.1 ‐1.7 ‐39.3 ‐22.3 ‐28.4 15.9
Textile 18.2 0.4 ‐22.1 ‐19.5 ‐3.8 ‐12.7 ‐11.5 ‐18.7 2.8
Wearing Apparel 6.1 27.8 67.4 11.7 69.3 20.9 71.7 25.7 49.4
Leather Products 1.2 3.6 6.8 ‐0.4 1.3 2.6 7.6 1.5 0.9
Wood Products 0.2 31.8 ‐81.2 ‐40.6 ‐9.8 5.3 ‐63.8 ‐59.8 115.4
Paper & Board 1.6 ‐5.3 ‐3.0 ‐9.2 9.6 ‐4.3 ‐3.1 ‐8.6 18.7
Coke & Petroleum Products 6.7 2.8 5.3 ‐5.5 ‐7.3 6.5 ‐13.6 ‐13.4 0.7
Chemicals 6.5 9.2 ‐6.2 ‐5.2 7.6 4.0 ‐0.6 ‐6.9 8.7
Pharmaceuticals Products 5.2 23.6 ‐8.6 ‐13.1 6.0 34.4 ‐23.3 ‐28.8 13.6
Rubber Products 0.2 ‐4.5 ‐9.3 0.4 ‐3.3 0.8 ‐9.1 ‐3.8 ‐15.8
Non Metalic Mineral Products 5.0 ‐4.9 ‐13.1 ‐6.6 ‐4.5 2.0 ‐12.4 ‐12.1 1.0
Iron & Steel Products 3.4 ‐0.6 ‐8.7 ‐5.5 7.6 ‐1.8 ‐0.9 ‐5.1 16.3
Fabricated Metal 0.4 ‐4.2 ‐14.5 ‐9.3 ‐9.4 0.0 ‐17.4 ‐16.1 ‐3.7
Computer, Electronics and Optical Products 0.0 ‐15.2 ‐29.8 ‐33.5 ‐0.2 ‐23.3 ‐17.2 ‐30.3 3.6
Electrical Equipment 2.0 ‐7.8 ‐9.5 ‐19.0 1.4 ‐12.3 ‐3.5 ‐15.4 ‐0.1
Machinery and Equipment N.E.C 0.4 99.5 ‐57.1 ‐18.5 ‐7.4 64.7 ‐41.1 ‐45.3 15.4
Automobiles 3.1 ‐66.1 ‐18.9 ‐59.8 7.6 ‐52.9 ‐28.8 ‐50.0 47.4
Other Transport Equipment 0.7 ‐21.9 ‐39.6 ‐32.0 ‐26.4 ‐14.6 ‐41.5 ‐40.8 ‐11.2
Furniture 0.5 ‐68.0 27.9 ‐20.5 93.6 ‐55.4 88.9 46.5 180.2
Other Manufacturing (football) 0.3 7.5 58.1 4.4 60.7 8.4 60.2 20.6 43.2
* Base Year: 2015‐16
110 ‐10
Index
percent
‐15
90
‐20
70
‐25
50
‐30
Nov‐20
Jan‐21
Mar‐21
May‐21
Jul‐21
Sep‐21
Nov‐21
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
May‐22
Jul‐22
Sep‐22
Nov‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Nov‐23
Mar
Apr
Jul
Sep
Jan
Feb
Jun
Nov
May
Aug
Oct
Dec
Major Crops
Production Area under cultivation Yield
percent percent percent
(Million Tons) (Million Hectares) (Kg/Hectare)
change change change
FY23 Over FY23 Over FY23 Over
FY23P FY22 FY21 FY23P FY22 FY23P FY22
FY22 FY22 FY22
Cotton1 4.9 8.3 7.1 ‐41.0 2.1 1.9 10.7 390 731 ‐46.6
Sugarcane 91.1 88.7 81.0 2.8 1.3 1.3 4.7 69,085 70,341 ‐1.8
Rice 7.3 9.3 8.4 ‐21.5 3.0 3.5 ‐15.9 2,460 2,635 ‐6.6
Wheat 27.6 26.2 27.5 5.4 9.0 9.0 0.7 3,056 2,920 4.7
P
: Provisional
1
Cotton production is stated in million bales of 375 lbs each.
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan Economic Survey.
Real Sector 1
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Human Health and Social Work Activities ‐1.1 1.6 10.8 9.5
Other Private Services 4.0 8.9 5.3 4.5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
GDP at Basic Price 2.1 100.0 1.0 ‐2.7 FY22 FY23 FY24
Real Sector 2
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
9.0
Agriculture of which 2.3 23.2 0.5 4.3 3.5
8.0
Crops ‐1.0 7.9 ‐0.1 8.2 5.8 7.0 6.2
Livestock 3.7 14.4 0.5 2.3 2.4 6.0
4.8 5.0
Fishing 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 5.0 4.0
4.0 3.5
Forestry 14.2 0.6 0.1 4.1 3.3
3.0
Industry ‐3.8 18.4 ‐0.7 6.9 8.2 2.1
2.0
Mining & quarrying ‐3.4 1.6 ‐0.1 ‐6.6 1.7 1.0
Manufacturing ‐5.3 11.9 ‐0.7 10.9 10.5 0.0
Large‐scale ‐9.9 8.4 ‐0.9 11.9 11.5 ‐1.0
‐2.0
Small Scale 9.1 2.2 0.2 8.9 9.0 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Slaughtering 6.4 1.3 0.1 6.3 6.1
Electricity & Gas distribution 9.8 2.6 0.2 3.8 9.0
Construction ‐9.2 2.3 ‐0.2 1.8 2.4
Services 0.1 58.4 0.0 6.7 5.9 Growth in Agriculture (percent)
Wholesale & retail trade ‐4.0 18.1 ‐0.8 10.3 10.8 Actual Target
Transport Storage and 6.0
Communications 3.3 10.6 0.3 4.1 4.9
5.0
Hotels & Restaurants 4.1 1.5 0.1 4.1 4.1 3.9
3.8
Information and Communication ‐2.6 2.8 ‐0.1 18.0 9.8 4.0 3.5 3.5
Finance & insurance ‐8.1 1.7 ‐0.2 7.0 5.5 2.8
3.0 3.5
Real Estate Activities (OD) 3.7 5.8 0.2 3.7 3.6
General Government ‐9.0 4.3 ‐0.4 1.8 ‐0.5 2.0
Education 9.9 3.0 0.3 5.8 ‐1.2
1.0
Human Health and Social Work 10.6 1.7 0.2 2.7 2.9
Other Private Services 5.0 8.8 0.4 4.8 5.1 0.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Real GDP (basic prices) ‐0.2 100.0 ‐0.2 6.2 5.8
Gross Domestic Product (mp) 0.0 100.0 0.0 4.8 6.5 1.0
less Indirect Taxes ‐3.0 6.9 ‐0.2 0.4 18.1
‐1.0
plus Subsidies ‐19.2 1.5 ‐0.4 107.9 15.1
Gross Domestic Product (bp) ‐0.2 94.7 ‐0.2 6.2 5.8 ‐3.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Total domestic demand3 ‐0.3 112.3 ‐0.3 5.9 8.0
1 GDP in dollar terms is calculated using weighted average exchange rate during the year.
2 Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). 3 Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation, change in stock and valuables
expenditures on real GDP. 4 Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies.
bp = Basic Prices and mp = Market Prices
R F T
: Revised; : Final; : Target.
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan.
Real Sector 3
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
percent of GDP
Change in Capital Stocks 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
14.0
B. National Savings 13.4 12.6 11.1 13.7
Savings Investment Gap (B ‐ A) ‐1.7 ‐1.1 ‐4.3 ‐0.8
12.0
Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors1 (at Current Market prices) 10.0
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
FY23R Percent of GDP
Note: Dotted line represents Target.
Percent
Percent of
share in FY22F FY21
GDP
total
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2.7 22.3 2.7 2.7 Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors1
Mining and quarrying 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 Agriculture Manufacturing
Manufacturing 1.0 8.4 1.5 1.7 Public Adminis. and Social Security Real Estate
Others
Electricity, gas, and water supply 0.7 5.7 0.6 0.6
Construction 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 12.0
5.7 5.1
Wholesale and retail trade 0.5 4.0 0.7 0.8 5.1 4.8
10.0 4.2
Accommodation and food service ac 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
as percent of GDP
Transportation and storage 0.8 6.5 1.3 1.1 8.0
1.8
1.6 1.7 1.6
Information and communication 0.3 2.3 0.6 0.4 2.0
6.0
Financial and insurance activities 0.2 1.4 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.5
2.1
Real estate activities (Ownership of 4.0
2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5
Dwellings) 2.0 16.6 1.8 1.6 1.0
1
Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available.
R
: Revised; F: Final; T: Target.
Real Sector 4
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Inflation
1
(Calculated from price indices with base year 2015‐16)
CPI (Percentage)
General Food Non‐Food
Period National Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM
Dec‐22 24.5 19.9 0.5 21.6 18.4 0.3 28.8 22.0 0.7 32.7 23.7 0.0 37.9 25.9 0.1 14.8 15.2 0.6 20.7 18.5 1.4
Jan‐23 27.6 21.1 2.9 24.4 19.4 2.4 32.3 23.7 3.6 39.0 25.9 3.9 45.2 28.7 5.7 15.6 15.4 1.2 20.9 19.1 1.5
Feb‐23 31.5 22.7 4.3 28.8 20.8 4.5 35.6 25.5 4.0 41.9 28.2 4.3 47.0 31.4 3.9 20.8 16.3 4.7 25.3 20.2 4.1
Mar‐23 35.4 24.6 3.7 33.0 22.6 3.9 38.9 27.6 3.5 47.1 30.9 5.6 50.2 34.3 4.5 24.1 17.5 2.7 28.5 21.6 2.4
Apr‐23 36.4 26.6 2.4 33.5 24.4 2.0 40.7 29.8 3.0 46.8 33.5 3.4 52.2 37.3 4.2 24.9 18.7 1.0 29.9 23.0 1.6
May‐23 38.0 28.6 1.6 35.1 26.3 1.5 42.2 32.0 1.7 48.1 36.3 1.9 52.4 40.0 1.4 26.6 20.0 1.2 32.5 24.6 2.0
Jun‐23 29.4 29.2 ‐0.3 27.3 26.9 0.1 32.4 32.6 ‐0.8 40.8 37.6 0.1 41.5 41.1 ‐1.6 18.7 20.1 0.1 23.8 24.8 0.1
Jul‐23 28.3 29.4 3.5 26.3 27.0 3.6 31.3 32.9 3.3 40.2 38.6 3.7 41.3 42.0 3.5 17.3 19.8 3.5 22.0 24.6 3.0
Aug‐23 27.4 29.4 1.7 25.0 26.9 1.6 30.9 33.1 1.9 38.8 39.4 0.6 40.6 42.7 0.8 16.3 19.1 2.4 22.0 24.1 3.1
Sep‐23 31.4 30.0 2.0 29.7 27.6 1.7 33.9 33.6 2.5 33.9 39.5 1.5 35.4 42.8 1.8 26.8 20.0 1.8 32.3 25.2 3.2
Oct‐23 26.8 30.0 1.0 25.5 27.6 1.1 28.7 33.5 0.9 28.9 38.8 0.6 28.6 41.7 0.7 23.1 20.4 1.4 28.8 25.7 1.1
Nov‐23 29.2 30.4 2.7 30.4 28.3 4.3 27.5 33.4 0.4 29.8 38.6 0.8 29.2 41.1 1.0 30.9 21.7 7.0 25.9 26.0 ‐0.2
Dec‐23 29.7 30.8 0.8 30.9 29.1 0.7 27.9 33.2 1.0 28.8 38.1 ‐0.7 29.3 40.2 0.1 32.4 23.2 1.8 26.4 26.5 1.8
Jul‐Dec* 28.8 28.0 30.0 33.2 33.7 24.4 26.2
* Period Average.
40.0 39.0
35.0
34.0
30.0
29.0
25.0
24.0
20.0
19.0
15.0
10.0 14.0
5.0 9.0
0.0 4.0
Apr‐23
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Apr‐23
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Urban CPI Inflation Rural CPI Inflation
YoY 12mma YoY 12mma
39.0 49.0
44.0
34.0
39.0
29.0
34.0
24.0 29.0
19.0 24.0
19.0
14.0
14.0
9.0
9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐22
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
CPI Inflation Food (YoY) CPI Inflation Non‐Food (YoY)
CPI ‐ Food ‐ Urban CPI ‐ Food ‐ Rural CPI ‐ Non Food ‐ Urban CPI ‐ Non Food ‐ Rural
64.0 35.0
54.0 30.0
25.0
44.0
20.0
34.0
15.0
24.0
10.0
14.0 5.0
4.0 0.0
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
May‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Dec‐22
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
1 National CPI is only available for headline Inflation. There is no National WPI, Core Inflation (i.e. NFNE and 20 percent Trimmed).
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Real Sector 5
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Inflation
(Calculated from price indices with base year 2015‐16)
44.0
24.0 39.0
34.0
19.0
29.0
24.0
14.0
19.0
9.0 14.0
9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Apr‐23
Jul‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Core Inflation‐NFNE (Urban) Core Inflation‐Trimmed (Urban)
YoY 12mma
YoY 12mma
22.0
34.0
20.0
18.0 29.0
16.0
24.0
14.0
12.0 19.0
10.0
14.0
8.0
6.0 9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Dec‐22
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Core Inflation‐NFNE (Rural) Core Inflation‐Trimmed (Rural)
YoY 12mma
YoY 12mma
29.0
44.0
24.0 39.0
34.0
19.0 29.0
24.0
14.0
19.0
9.0 14.0
9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Apr‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Real Sector 6
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
CPI Inflation by Groups (National, Urban and Rural) ‐ Base Year: 2015‐16
Dec‐23
Urban Rural National
Groups
Weights YoY 12mma MoM Weights YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM
Food and non‐alcoholic
30.4 27.4 36.7 ‐1.0 40.9 27.6 39.3 0.1 27.5 37.9 ‐0.5
Beverages
Non‐perishable food items 26.0 28.9 39.2 ‐0.3 35.1 28.5 42.0 0.4 28.7 40.5 0.1
Perishable food items 4.5 19.4 22.5 ‐5.3 5.8 22.3 23.6 ‐1.9 20.7 23.0 ‐3.7
Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.9 80.9 93.3 0.8 1.3 85.1 94.5 0.2 82.8 93.8 0.5
Clothing and footwear 8.0 18.0 18.6 0.4 9.5 24.1 22.2 0.8 20.7 20.2 0.6
Housing, water, Elec., Gas and
27.0 45.3 18.4 3.1 18.5 22.3 19.5 4.6 37.7 18.7 3.6
other fuels
Furnishing and household
4.1 30.0 36.8 0.8 4.1 36.2 39.5 1.0 32.5 37.9 0.9
equipment maintenance
Health 2.3 27.3 22.2 0.9 3.5 19.7 20.7 0.5 23.4 21.4 0.7
Transport 6.1 25.8 32.1 1.2 5.6 33.3 36.8 0.3 28.6 33.9 0.8
Communication 2.4 9.2 8.0 0.0 2.0 3.9 3.1 0.0 7.4 6.3 0.0
Recreation and culture 1.7 36.4 56.7 0.0 1.4 42.1 57.1 0.0 38.5 56.8 0.0
Education 4.9 12.7 8.7 0.3 2.1 16.7 16.4 0.0 13.5 10.3 0.2
Restaurants and hotels 7.4 29.9 35.7 0.8 6.2 32.1 33.1 0.6 30.7 34.8 0.7
Misc. goods and services 4.8 30.5 35.5 0.9 5.0 33.1 37.5 1.0 31.6 36.3 1.0
Overall 100.0 30.9 29.1 0.7 100.0 27.9 33.2 1.0 29.7 30.8 0.8
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (percent change) Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI)* (percent change)
25 30
25
20
20
15 15
10 10
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Real Sector 7
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Balance of Payments
Balance of Payments ‐ Summary (Million US$)5
Jul‐Dec Current, Capital and Financial Account Balance (Billion US$)
Items FY23 FY22
FY24 FY23
Current & Capital Account Financial Account* Reserves & related items
A) Current Account Balance (CAB) ‐831 ‐3,629 ‐2,235 ‐17,481 5.0
4.0
3.0
Trade Balance ‐9,952 ‐15,366 ‐23,955 ‐39,050 2.0
1.0
0.0
Exports 15,289 14,223 27,879 32,493 ‐1.0
‐2.0
‐3.0
Imports 25,241 29,589 51,834 71,543 ‐4.0
‐5.0
Services (Net) ‐1,430 ‐270 ‐969 ‐5,840 ‐6.0
Mar‐22
Mar‐23
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Primary Income (Net) ‐3,738 ‐2,631 ‐5,671 ‐5,248
Secondary Income (Net); of which 14,289 14,638 28,360 32,657 *. Financial Account Balance represents Inflows to the economy.
Workers' Remittances 13,435 14,418 27,333 31,279
Current and Capital Account Balance (Billion US$)
B) Capital Account 88 317 375 205 Current and Capital Account Balance As % of GDP (RHS)
C) Current and Capital Account Balance ‐743 ‐3,312 ‐1,860 ‐17,276 0.0 0.0
1
D) Financial Account Balance ; of which ‐4,276 726 1,312 ‐11,261 ‐3.0 ‐1.0
Foreign Direct Investment (Net)2 ‐833 329 ‐590 ‐1,702 ‐6.0
‐2.0
Foreign Portfolio Investment (Net) ‐71 1,033 1,012 55 ‐9.0
‐3.0
Other Investment ‐ Net Acquisition of Financial Assets ‐208 ‐1,387 ‐1,029 2,613 ‐12.0
‐4.0
Other Investment ‐ Net Incurrence of Liabilities 3,164 ‐757 ‐1,928 12,226 ‐15.0
‐5.0
Of which: General Government 2,120 ‐278 ‐2,079 6,117 ‐18.0
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Amortization 2,858 5,421 11,660 8,343
E) Net Errors and Omissions ‐527 ‐246 ‐1,046 ‐303 Financial Account Balance (Billion US$)
Financial Account Balance As % of GDP (RHS)
F) Reserves and Related Items 3,006 ‐4,284 ‐4,218 ‐6,318
4.0 1.0
SBP Gross Reserves3 9,443 6,159 5,669 11,090
4 0.0
0.0
SBP Net Liquid Reserves 8,233 5,586 4,445 9,815
‐1.0
As percent of GDP ‐4.0
‐2.0
Current Account Balance; of which ‐0.7 ‐4.7
‐8.0
Exports 8.2 8.7 ‐3.0
‐12.0
Imports 15.3 19.1 ‐4.0
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FDI ‐0.2 ‐0.5
1. In BPM6 classification, a positive number under financial account means outflow from the economy and vice versa. This means that we are net lender in such case and vice versa.
2. Net FDI equals direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad less direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan. Negative number represents inflow in the economy and vice versa.
3. SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but it excludes unsettled claims on RBI.
4. SBP reserves without CRR, foreign currency cash holding of SBP and Net ACU Balances.
5. Due to rounding off, figures of Trade of Good and Services, Workers' remittances, FDI, FPI and Government Disbursements may differ from source data.
3.0
Total Inflows 13,435 14,418 ‐6.8 100 27,333 31,279
2.5
USA 1,577 1,616 ‐2.5 11.7 3,168 3,087
2.0
Mar
Jun
Nov
May
Aug
Apr
Sep
Jan
Feb
Oct
Dec
External Sector 8
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Jun
May
Jul
Aug
Mar
Apr
Sep
Jan
Feb
Oct
Nov
Dec
381 426 2.5 801 857
Cement 130 94 0.8 204 232
Export Receipts (Billion US$)
Engineering Goods 134 137 0.9 261 314
Export Receipts YoY (RHS)
Jewellery 4 6 0.0 15 13 3.5 50.0
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jun‐22
Jun‐23
Machinery Group 3,120 2,691 12.4 4,432 9,644
Telecom 840 407 3.3 734 2,252
Electrical Machinery 933 646 3.7 1,039 1,818
Import Payments (Billion US$)
Power Machinery 185 220 0.7 357 795 Import Payments YoY (RHS)
Agriculture & Other Chemicals Group 4,523 4,714 17.9 8,263 10,675 8.0 60.0
Iron Steel (IS) and IS Scrap 1,918 1,685 7.6 2,748 4,961 0.0 ‐80.0
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
Jul‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Jul‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
All Others 4,509 5,648 17.9 10,186 18,652
Trade Balance ‐9,952 ‐15,366 ‐23,955 ‐39,050
1. Share (in percent) is calculated as a ratio of flow of a group (item) to flow of total exports/imports during reporting period.
2. Includes tanned and manufactured leather.
Jun
May
Jul
Aug
Apr
Sep
Jan
Feb
Oct
Nov
Dec
Memorandum Item:
Net overall FDI 4 ‐833 329 ‐590 ‐1,702
3. Net Inflows equal to direct investment made by foreigners in Pakistan less disinvestment during the period.
4. Net FDI equals direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad. Negative number represents inflow in the economy and vice versa.
Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP.
External Sector 9
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Global Economy
Policy Rates in Major Economies Policy Rates
USA UK Euro zone China India
Current Previous policy Change 7
Major economies
rate (bps) 6
Policy rate w.e.f
5
4
percent
USA 5.50 26‐Jul‐2023 5.25 25
3
UK 5.25 2‐Aug‐2023 5.00 25 2
1
Euro zone 4.50 14‐Sep‐2023 4.25 25 0
Jul‐22
Jul‐23
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
#
Japan ‐0.10 29‐Jan‐2016 0.10 ‐20
Source: Central banks' websites
percent
0
India 6.50 8‐Feb‐2023 6.25 25
‐10
‐20
Malaysia 3.00 3‐May‐2023 2.75 25
‐30
Q1‐20
Q2‐20
Q3‐20
Q4‐20
Q1‐21
Q2‐21
Q3‐21
Q4‐21
Q1‐22
Q2‐22
Q3‐22
Q4‐22
Q1‐23
Q2‐23
Q3‐23
Q4‐23
Thailand 2.50 27‐Sep‐2023 2.25 25
Source: Central banks' websites
* Loan Prime Rate: The benchmark interest rate in China. Source: People's Bank of China/Bloomberg/Trading Economics.
#
Bank of Japan previous policy rate was in a range of (0 to 0.1) instead of a single number. Hence, an upper limit is used for previous policy rate which is 0.1.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Current account Reserves4
Inflation (YoY)1 GDP growth2 Fiscal balance
balance (Billion US$)
Dec‐23 Q4‐2023
as a percent of GDP3 Dec‐23
USA 3.4 3.1 ‐2.8 ‐6.3 37.3
UK 3.9 0.3 ‐2.9 ‐3.9 108.8
Euro zone 2.9 0.0 2.4 ‐3.3 300.7
Japan 2.8 1.5 3.1 ‐5.1 1,170.4
Australia 5.4 2.1 0.3 0.3 40.9
China ‐0.3 5.2 2.3 ‐3.8 3,171.8
India 5.7 7.6 ‐0.5 ‐5.9 533.4
Sri Lanka 4.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.5
South Korea 3.2 2.2 2.1 ‐2.7 392.7
Malaysia 1.5 3.4 1.8 ‐5.1 103.7
Indonesia 2.6 4.9 0.8 ‐2.5 124.4
Thailand ‐0.8 1.5 0.8 ‐2.7 201.6
1. Inflation rates pertain to December 2023 except Australia which pertains to September 2023; 2. Annual GDP growth, measured as a percentage change over the same quarter of previous year and pertains to Q4‐
2023 except UK, Euro Zone, Japan, Australia, India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Thailand which pertains to Q3‐2023; 3. The Economist, Economic and Financial indicators, pertain to January 27, 2024; 4 IMF (IFS)
Reserve position data pertains to December 2023 except China, India, Sri Lanka, South Korea, and Indonesia pertains to November 2023.
Jul‐23
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
China 3.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 Dec‐23
India 7.2 6.3 6.3 6.3
Source: Central bank websites and Bloomberg
ASEAN‐5 5.5 4.2 ‐ ‐
Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and www.tradingeconomics.com.
Dash indicates, data is not available.
External Sector 10
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐23
Saudi Arabian Light Crude oil price ($/bbl)** 81.7 0.6 4.3
Source: World Bank
Cotton spot (US cents/ pound)** 81.9 2.6 3.4
Trends in Daily Saudi Arabian Oil Prices
150
Palm oil ($/m. ton) 813.5 ‐2.0 ‐0.4
130
Soyabean Oil ($/m. ton) 1,062.5 ‐5.0 5.5 110
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
* Data for world commodity prices/indices pertains to December 2023.
** Average during the month i.e. January 01‐25, 2024. The percentage changes have been calculated by Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25, 2024)
taking average prices of current month with the previous month and with the end June prices.
Trends in Daily International Gold Prices
2200
Capital Market Indices1
2000
Percent change since***
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
UK (FTSE 100) 7,588.9 ‐0.2 0.4 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25, 2024)
Japan (Nikkei 225) 35,296.9 6.6 7.8 Daily International Cotton Prices
160
China (SSEA) 3,016.5 ‐2.6 ‐10.5
140
France (CAC 40) 7,421.8 ‐1.2 2.3
US cents per pound
120
80
India (BSE) 71,708.8 1.8 13.6
60
World dev'd (MSCI) 3,157.8 1.7 8.4
40
Mar‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Emerging Markets (MSCI) 989.0 ‐0.2 ‐1.0
Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25, 2024)
World all (MSCI) 722.1 1.5 7.4
1
Updated till January 25, 2024
Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond2
10‐Year (2024) 30‐Year (2036)
2 140
10 Yr Bond = $1000 M (Coupon rate = 8.25%): Issued ‐ April 8, 2014: Maturity ‐ April 15, 2024
120
30 Yr Bond = $300 M (Coupon rate = 7.875%): Issued ‐ Mar 24, 2006: Maturity ‐Mar 23, 2036
100
*** These are the monthly averages.
80
percent
60
Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank and OECD.
40
20
0
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
External Sector 11
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
BE
FY23
BE1,2 FY24 FY23
Total expenditures 20,281 3,649 2,836 16,155
Current 17,591 3,173 2,538 14,583 Expenditures (billion Rupees)
Growth (YoY) % 20.6 25.0 29.0 26.6 Development Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS)
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
Fiscal balance ‐6,904 ‐963 ‐819 ‐6,521
BE
5
Revenue balance ‐4,214 ‐487 ‐521 ‐4,950
6
Primary balance 398 417 135 ‐690
Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees)
Primary Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS)
Financing of Fiscal Deficit (billion Rs) 1,000 0
FY24 Jul‐Sep 0 ‐1
FY23
BE1,2 FY24 FY23 ‐1,000 ‐2
15 0 0 0 ‐8,000 ‐9
Privatization proceeds
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
B.E
FBR Tax Collection8 (billion Rs)
9
Direct Sales Customs FED Total taxes Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit
Privatization proceeds Domestic banking system
Q1 481 624 221 71 1,398 Domestic non‐bank External
Q2 538 650 259 75 1,522 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
0.0%
Q3 559 592 234 79 1,464 80% 41.4%
57.5% 54.9% 59.0% 54.1%
Q4 702 666 295 97 1,759 65.7%
60%
FY22 2,280 2,532 1,009 321 6,143 18.9%
40% 5.8%
Q1 683 642 230 79 1,634 16.0% 18.6%
20% 22.2% 39.3% 56.3% 39.5%
Q2 843 630 237 85 1,795 26.5% 22.4%
12.1%
Q3 783 629 234 80 1,727 0%
‐10.4%
Q4 963 691 234 125 2,013 ‐20%
FY24 BE
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
billion Rs
11% 12% 9% 15%
1.Bank 30,041 26,948 3,092 774 25000
14%
12% 11% 10% 16%
15% 19% 18%
20000 21% 20%
Commercial banks 24,012 20,620 3,392 1,081 25% 23%
15000
10000 53% 56%
SBP 6,028 6,328 ‐300 ‐307 50% 53% 53% 52% 54%
5000 50%
2.Non‐bank 10,532 11,478 ‐945 1,126 0
Dec‐21
Jun‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Jun‐23
Sep‐23
Mar‐22
Mar‐23
National saving schemes (NSS) 3,216 3,248 ‐32 ‐218
Others* 7,316 8,230 ‐913 1,344 Source: SBP, CDNS
billion Rs
Nov‐23P Jun‐23 Jul‐Nov 25000 13% 13%
22% 21%
19%
19%
FY24 FY23 20000 21%
15000 69%
1.Permanent debt 29,944 26,021 3,923 2,082 72% 73% 67%
10000 68% 67% 68%
65%
PIBs 24,976 22,009 2,967 1,775 5000
0
Prize bonds 382 383 0 6
Dec‐21
Mar‐22
Jun‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Mar‐23
Jun‐23
Sep‐23
Others2 4,586 3,630 956 301
Source: SBP
2. Floating debt 7,624 9,335 ‐1,712 46
Interest Payments by Type of Debt
MTBs 7,543 9,269 ‐1,726 41
Unfunded Floating Permanent
MRTBs‐replenishment3 80 66 14 5 6000
3.Unfunded debt4: of which 2,880 2,927 ‐47 ‐237 5000
11%
Saving schemes 2,786 2,819 ‐32 ‐224 4000
billion Rs 22%
4.Foreign currency instruments 383 384 ‐1 1 3000
17%
5.Naya Pakistan Certificates6 126 143 ‐17 9 2000 16% 15%
21%
21% 21% 29% 67%
Total (1+2+3+4+5) 40,956 38,810 2,146 1,900 25%
1000 56% 63%
5
37% 63% 57%
Government domestic liabilities 582 845 ‐263 ‐106 38% 23%
0
1
It includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs, Special US Dollar Bonds and other domestic FC borrowings. FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
2
Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk 3 Years. Source: SBP
3 4
Includes Outright Sale of MRTBs, if any. Includes funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds.
5
This reflects provincial governments’ borrowings from banks for commodity operations.
6. Naya Pakistan Certificates held by resident only. * This includes Treasury Bills held by other sectors, GP Fund and Other Securities obtained residually.
Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 Debt Servicing (as percent of)
Debt stock as percent of
GDP Total revenue Total expenditure GDP (RHS)
47.3 49.0 47.0 46.6 46.2
60 7
Debt servicing as percent 50 6
of Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 5
40
GDP 4.0 4.8 4.5 4.3 5.8 4
30
Total revenue 36.0 36.7 36.4 35.4 50.7 3
20
2
Tax revenue 39.4 48.5 47.6 42.2 62.5 10 1
Total expenditure 21.1 23.9 24.4 21.4 30.2 0 0
Current expenditure 24.8 27.0 27.6 24.7 33.5 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
7 Source: SBP, MoF
This includes interest payments only. 8 Includes prize bonds. Naya Pakistan Certificate (NPC)
9
. Includes interest payments of Naya Pakistan Certificate (NPC) and Foreign Currency Instruments.
P
: Provisional
Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF).
1. Public debt (a+b+c) 98,134 94,881 3,253 1. Public debt (a+b+c) 2,312 16,672
a) Government debt 78,510 76,926 1,584 a) Government debt3 1,742 15,086
i) Long term (>1 year) 78,351 76,766 1,585 Principal 1,149 12,438
Paris club 7,703 7,901 ‐198 Interest 594 2,647
Multilateral 37,090 37,363 ‐273 b) To IMF 524 1,362
Other bilateral 19,615 17,572 2,042 Principal 377 966
Euro/Sukuk global bonds 7,800 7,800 0 Interest 147 396
Military debt 0 0 0 c) Foreign exchange liabilities 45 224
Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
GDP 29.5 39.6 40.0 34.5 40.0 42.4 1.7 3.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 6.6
Reserves 581.3 734.4 598.4 501.2 843.5 1357.0 33.3 64.4 67.2 50.6 94.0 210.8
Exports 384.5 438.4 501.5 477.0 401.1 446.9 22.1 38.5 56.3 48.1 44.7 69.4
Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$) External Debt Servicing (billion US$)*
Debt Foreign exchange liabilities PSEs debt** Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt
140 20
120 16
100
12
80
8
60
40 4
20 0
0 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 *Only Long term debt servicing included.
**PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non‐guaranteed debt.
Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP
1 2 3 4
P: Provisional ; Naya Pakistan Certificates (NPC) are issued by Government of Pakistan for overseas Pakistanis. Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL; Only long term debt servicing included. As
per the guidelines available in IMF's External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2003, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term
5
repayment of principle has been reported as Memorandum Items; Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (‐) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period.
Sources: Economic Affairs Division and Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP.
Note: P: Provisional;1 External liabilities include Central bank deposits, SWAPS, Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank; 2 Includes borrowings from banks by provincial governments and PSEs for
commodity operations; 3 As per Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005 (FRDLA) amended in June 2017, "Total Debt of the Government" means the debt of the government (including the Federal Government
and the Provincial Governments) serviced out of the consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) less accumulated deposits of the Federal and Provincial Governments with the banking
system. 4This is excluding short term debt repayment. 5. Less the SBP’s on‐lending to GOP against SDRs allocation (SDR 1.95 billion) equivalent to PKR 474.94 billion.
Billion Rs
1,000
NDA 34,211.0 144.7 1,537.6 5,855.1
0
Net government borrowings: of which 23,723.1 2,574.6 1,188.4 4,100.2 ‐1,000
Net budgetary borrowing 22,254.4 2,767.2 1,198.6 3,747.9 ‐2,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Commodity operations 1,485.9 ‐193.7 ‐8.3 352.3 Weeks
Non‐government borrowings: of which 11,342.6 2.2 702.1 646.8
Private sector 9,167.1 ‐8.0 408.0 208.3
Net Foreign Assets ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
PSEs 1,662.9 55.8 79.2 293.7
FY23 FY24
Credit to NBFIs 512.6 ‐45.5 214.9 144.7 1000
Billion Rs
‐500
Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System (Billion Rs)
‐1000
Currency in circulation 9,148.7 ‐491.2 341.3 1,576.3
‐1500
Total deposits with banks 22,262.4 1,158.3 ‐222.8 2,327.6 ‐2000
Demand deposits with banks 20,002.3 990.9 ‐555.5 2,243.1 ‐2500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Time deposits with banks 732.9 200.3 332.7 ‐230.0
Weeks
RFCDs with banks 1,527.3 ‐32.9 ‐0.1 314.5
M2 31,523.3 670.2 112.4 3,920.6
Monetary Assets of the Banking System (percent growth) Net Domestic Assets(NDA) ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
1500
NDA 14.9 0.4 5.4 20.6
0
Government borrowings 26.4 10.9 6.1 20.9
‐1500
Budgetary borrowing 27.0 12.4 6.5 20.3 ‐3000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Commodity operations 14.8 ‐13.0 ‐0.7 31.1
Weeks
Non‐government sector borrowings ‐0.5 0.0 6.6 6.0
Private sector ‐2.2 ‐0.1 4.6 2.3
PSEs 18.7 3.4 5.8 21.5
Private Sector Credit ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
Other items (Net) ‐41.9 ‐284.6 ‐18.0 56.5 FY23 FY24
700
M2 16.2 2.1 0.4 14.2 600
500
Memorandum Items 400
300
Billion Rs
Monetary Sector 16
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Billion Rs
1000
500
NFA ‐2,013.4 568.2 ‐1,218.2 ‐1,453.5 0
NDA: of which 13,433.2 ‐858.1 1,716.2 3,546.8 ‐500
‐1000
Budgetary borrowing 5,250.1 ‐1,045.5 ‐110.2 108.7 ‐1500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Other items (net) 6,596.3 228.3 1,900.5 3,498.2 Weeks
Net impact of OMOs/discounting 8,244.7 1,020.8 2,804.6 4,293.9
Reserve money 11,419.8 ‐289.9 498.0 2,093.2 Banking System Deposits ‐Cumulative Flows since end June
Monetary Liabilities of SBP (billion Rs) FY23 FY24
2500
Cumulative flows
2000
since end‐June 1500
billion Rs
End June 2023 FY23
Latest week A year ago 1000
stocks Flows 500
12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23 0
‐500
‐1000
Currency in circulation 9,148.7 ‐491.2 341.3 1,576.3 ‐1500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Cash in tills 524.9 ‐77.2 ‐49.6 95.3
Weeks
Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) 1,634.1 275.4 212.4 404.9
Currency in Circulation ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
Other deposits with SBP 112.1 3.1 ‐6.1 16.8
FY23 FY24
YoY 1500
(percent growth)
(12‐Jan‐2024)
1000
Billion Rs
NFA of the SBP 18.7 28.2 ‐217.6 ‐259.6 500
2500
2000
Budgetary borrowing 22,254.4 2,767.2 1,198.6 3,747.9 1500
1000
Federal government 24,269.3 2,948.6 1,298.8 3,912.5 500
0
From SBP 5,922.6 ‐954.6 21.8 195.9 ‐500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Weeks
SBP's holdings of MRTBs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cumulative Budgetary Borrowings during FY24
From Scheduled Banks 18,346.7 3,903.1 1,277.0 3,716.6 SBs SBP Total budgetary borrowing
5000
Provincial governments ‐2,014.9 ‐181.4 ‐100.2 ‐164.6
4000
From SBP ‐672.5 ‐91.0 ‐132.0 ‐87.2 3000
Billion Rs
2000
From Scheduled Banks ‐1,342.4 ‐90.4 31.8 ‐77.3
1000
Memorandum Items 0
‐1000
Budgetary borrowing on cash basis 21,863.1 2,688.5 1,104.5 3,532.3
‐2000
SBP 4,940.3 ‐1,063.6 ‐189.2 ‐96.9 ‐3000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728
Scheduled Banks 16,922.8 3,752.1 1,293.7 3,629.2 Weeks
Monetary Sector 17
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Billion Rs
1. Loans to private sector businesses 6,959.0 442.6 574.5 31.1 200
100
By type 0
‐100
Working capital: of which 4,112.5 370.4 370.1 ‐146.1 ‐200
‐300
Export finance 839.3 71.3 ‐12.2 ‐37.4
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Dec
Sep
Jan
Feb
Jun
Oct
Jul
Nov
Import finance 313.7 65.0 ‐22.5 ‐126.2
Fixed investment 2,608.2 75.0 205.4 174.8 Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows)
FY22 FY23 FY24
Construction Financing 238.3 ‐2.7 ‐1.0 2.3 30
By Sectors: of which 25
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 344.3 73.0 23.5 17.9 20
15
Billion Rs
Manufacturing: of which 4,540.8 307.3 503.1 89.4 10
5
Textiles 1,573.9 106.8 188.2 95.1 0
Food Products & Beverages 1,078.6 90.0 24.4 8.7 ‐5
‐10
Chemicals & Products 331.2 ‐5.0 82.4 ‐11.6 ‐15
Sep
Feb
Oct
Nov
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Dec
Jan
Jun
Jul
Basic metals 202.1 36.0 6.2 ‐40.3
Non‐metallic Mineral Products 300.9 ‐14.4 46.8 32.5 Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows)
FY22 FY23 FY24
15
Manufacture of electrical equipment 116.2 26.9 14.7 ‐41.3
10
Wearing Apparel 216.9 7.1 28.8 10.4 5
Billion Rs
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 571.6 ‐54.5 2.8 ‐48.6 0
‐5
Construction 190.2 10.0 11.0 1.9
‐10
Wholesale, Retail Trade and Repair of Vehicles 451.8 84.2 ‐6.5 ‐79.8 ‐15
Transportation and storage 118.8 7.2 ‐5.9 ‐8.4 ‐20
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Dec
Sep
Jan
Feb
Oct
Jul
Nov
Jun
Information and communication 340.4 14.4 36.8 62.5
Services 308.0 ‐7.2 14.3 ‐10.3 Credit to NBFIs (Monthly Flows)
Feb
Oct
Nov
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Dec
Jan
Jun
Jul
2
This also includes credit to Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories.
Monetary Sector 18
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System Private Sector Credit
31.0 24.0 16.0 20.0
30.5 21.0 14.0
30.0 16.0
18.0 12.0
29.5 10.0
15.0 12.0
29.0
12.0 8.0
28.5 8.0
9.0 6.0
28.0
6.0 4.0
27.5 4.0
27.0 3.0 2.0
Monetary Sector 19
3.0
7.0
11.0
15.0
19.0
23.0
50.0
‐100.0
‐50.0
0.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
8.0
Dec‐20 Dec‐20 Dec‐20 Dec‐20
Feb‐21 Feb‐21 Feb‐21 Feb‐21
Monetary Sector
NDA to NFA Ratio
11
13
15
17
Money Supply 19
Apr‐21 Apr‐21 Apr‐21 Apr‐21
Jun‐21 1
Currency in Circulation
Jun‐21 Jun‐21 Jun‐21
Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21 3
Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21 5
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
‐5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0.0
5.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
39.0
41.0
43.0
45.0
47.0
Dec‐20 Dec‐20 Dec‐20
Dec‐20
12 MMA
Total Deposits
Feb‐21 Feb‐21
Reserve Money
Feb‐21 Feb‐21
Apr‐21 Apr‐21 Apr‐21
Apr‐21
Trends in Monetary Aggregates
Jun‐21 Jun‐21
Credit to Private Sector
Jun‐21 Jun‐21
Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21
Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21
Dec‐21 Dec‐21 Dec‐21 Dec‐21
Monetary Policy Information Compendium
Oct‐23
Dec‐23 Oct‐23 Oct‐23 Oct‐23
Dec‐23 Dec‐23 Dec‐23
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
20
January 2024
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Money Market
Policy Instruments (percent)
Current w.e.f Previous w.e.f Change1
SBP Target rate (Policy) 22.00 27‐Jun‐23 21.00 5‐Apr‐23 100 Policy and Overnight Money Market Repo Rates
SBP reverse repo rate SBP repo rate
SBP reverse repo rate 23.00 27‐Jun‐23 22.00 5‐Apr‐23 100 Weekly WA overnight repo rate SBP Target rate (Policy)
24.0
SBP repo rate 21.00 27‐Jun‐23 20.00 5‐Apr‐23 100 23.0
Bi‐weekly average CRR on DL and 22.0
TD < 1 year 6.0 12‐Nov‐21 5.0 1‐Nov‐08 100
21.0
Daily minimum CRR on DL and TD 20.0
percent
< 1 year 4.0 15‐Nov‐21 3.0 12‐Oct‐12 100
19.0
CRR on TL > 1 year 0.0 4‐Aug‐07 3.0 22‐Jul‐06 ‐300 18.0
17.0
SLR on DL and TL < 1 year 19.0 24‐May‐08 18.0 22‐Jul‐06 100
16.0
Islamic banks 14.0 17‐Nov‐16 19.0 3‐Jun‐11 ‐500 15.0
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Aug‐23
SLR on TL > 1 year 0.0 18‐Oct‐08 19.0 24‐May‐08 ‐1900
Weighted Average O/N Money Market Repo Rate During MP Period (percent) Volatility in Overnight Money Market Repo Rate during MP period
0.050
Period started on 27‐Jun‐23 1‐Aug‐23 15‐Sep‐23 31‐Oct‐23 13‐Dec‐23 0.045
0.040
coefficient of variation
Period ended on 31‐Jul‐23 14‐Sep‐23 30‐Oct‐23 12‐Dec‐23 15‐Jan‐24 0.035
0.030
Policy rate 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 0.025
0.020
WA O/N repo rate2 21.57 21.36 21.53 21.77 21.68 0.015
0.010
Standard deviation 0.52 0.50 0.44 0.32 0.51 0.005
0.000
7‐Apr‐22
4‐Apr‐23
14‐Sep‐23
23‐May‐22
12‐Jul‐22
22‐Aug‐22
10‐Oct‐22
27‐Nov‐22
23‐Jan‐23
2‐Mar‐23
12‐Jun‐23
26‐Jun‐23
31‐Jul‐23
30‐Oct‐23
12‐Dec‐23
15‐Jan‐24
CoV3 0.024 0.023 0.020 0.015 0.024
2
Weekly Weighted Average O/N Repo Rate
3
CoV (Coefficient of Variation) is a ratio and is unit less. *up to Jan 15, 2024
Bi‐weekly Cash Reserves Requirement (CRR)4 (billion Rs) Cash Reserves Requirement
Maintenance period Change since Amount as % of TDL (RHS)
ended as on Last MPS 55.0 6.50
50.0
4‐Jan‐24 7‐Dec‐23 7‐Dec‐23 45.0 6.00
40.0
Cash required 1,394.3 1,349.2 45.1
in percent
35.0
billion Rs
5.50
30.0
Cash maintained 1,424.3 1,359.7 64.6 25.0
20.0 5.00
Excess cash reserves (per day) 30.0 10.5 19.5 15.0
4
Bi‐weekly CRR is the proportion of local currency time and demand liabilities (TDL) that scheduled banks are 10.0 4.50
required to maintain with SBP in the form of cash on average during the reserve maintenance period. 5.0
0.0 4.00
Mar‐22
Jul‐22
Sep‐22
Nov‐22
Mar‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐22
May‐22
Jan‐23
May‐23
Jan‐24
5
As on Thursday preceding the last monetary policy decision.
10000
Maintained6 18,593.1 18,179.9 413.2 224.3 9000
Cash 2,075.8 1,938.8 137.0 143.0 8000
557.6 544.0 7000
Cash in tills 13.6 28.2
6000
Balance with SBP 1,357.1 1,235.7 121.4 21.4
Mar‐22
Jul‐22
Sep‐22
Nov‐22
Mar‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐22
May‐22
Jan‐23
May‐23
Jan‐24
Financial Markets 21
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
SBP reverse repo SBP repo SBP Repo and Reverse Repo Facility
Repo Reverse repo
Amount Days Amount Days 14000
billion Rs No. billion Rs No. 12000
10000
FY22 2,999.2 66 6,681.6 55 8000
billion Rs
Q2 789.5 16 36.9 10 6000
Q3 631.7 22 940.4 13 4000
Q4 1,017.5 14 5,576.8 27 2000
FY23 9,441.9 102 18,308.5 153 0
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Aug‐23
Q1 1,255.8 20 4,537.5 23
Q2 1,964.4 29 1,864.5 20
Q3 3,150.6 34 5,294.9 51 *up to Jan 15, 2024
Q4 3,071.2 19 6,611.6 59
Outstanding Open Market Operations
FY24 8,786.7 63.0 45,278.6 136.0 12,000 (+) net injections
Q1 3,107.2 24 24,298.7 62 11,000
10,000
Q2 4,616.3 34 14,573.2 64 9,000
Q3* 1,063.3 5 6,406.7 10 8,000
billion Rs
7,000
*up to Jan 15, 2024 6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Outstanding Open Market Operations1 (billion rupees) 2,000
1,000 (‐) net mop‐ups
Average End‐period 0
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐23
Aug‐23
Jan‐24
Outstanding Outstanding
OMOs OMOs
FY20 1,085.1 925.0 *up to Jan 15, 2024
percent
Q1 4,839.1 3,912.2 18.5
Q2 4,938.6 4,723.5 16.5
Q3 5,910.3 5,906.6 14.5
Q4 7,628.6 7,996.4 12.5
FY24 8,926.6 9,909.2 10.5
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Nov‐22
Nov‐23
Q1 8,580.3 7,658.8
Q2 8,409.5 9,844.3
Q3* 9,790.1 9,909.2 *up to Jan 15, 2024
Financial Markets 22
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
percent
1‐month 20.71 15.94 477 ‐119
16.0
3‐month 20.36 17.00 336 ‐128
14.0
6‐month 20.53 17.05 348 ‐94
9‐month 20.53 17.08 345 ‐74 12.0
12‐month 20.45 17.07 338 ‐74 10.0
7D
1M
2M
3M
4M
6M
9M
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
15Y
20Y
15D
2‐year 17.73 16.85 88 ‐71
3‐year 16.35 16.25 10 ‐11
5‐year 15.61 15.15 46 ‐34
7‐year 15.18 14.36 82 ‐18
10‐year 14.73 13.93 80 ‐24
20‐year 14.58 14.15 43 ‐20
1 It is secondary market yield‐to‐maturity used by banks to revalue their holding of securities (i.e. mark to market).
percent
2‐week 21.93 15.95 598 ‐40 17.0
1‐month 21.64 16.19 545 ‐66 15.0
13.0
3‐month 20.81 17.05 376 ‐100 11.0
6‐month 20.83 17.10 373 ‐81 9.0
7.0
9‐month 21.03 17.37 366 ‐67
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Aug‐23
12‐month 21.01 17.38 363 ‐61
*up to Jan 15, 2024
KIBOR and PKRV Spread (basis points) KIBOR and PKRV Spread
Spread (RHS) 6‐M KIBOR 6‐M PKRV
Change since
Current 27.0 130
Tenors Last MPS 25.0 110
15‐Jan‐24 17‐Jan‐23 17‐Jan‐23 12‐Dec‐23 23.0 90
21.0
70
1‐week 39 54 ‐15 27
percent
19.0
bps
50
2‐week 74 92 ‐18 39 17.0
30
1‐month 93 25 68 53 15.0
13.0 10
3‐month 45 5 40 28 ‐10
11.0
6‐month 30 5 25 13 9.0 ‐30
Nov‐22
Apr‐23
Nov‐23
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
9‐month 50 29 21 7
12‐month 56 31 25 13
*up to Jan 15, 2024
Sources: SBP and Financial Market Association of Pakistan
Financial Markets 23
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
percentage points
16.0 8.0
Apr‐23 20.15 10.95 920 17.19 9.60 759 14.0
percent
May‐23 20.17 11.13 904 17.32 10.08 723 12.0 6.0
10.0
Jun‐23 20.32 10.43 989 17.70 10.39 731 8.0 4.0
Jul‐23 21.46 12.76 871 18.00 11.23 677 6.0
4.0 2.0
Aug‐23 21.07 10.85 1,022 18.52 11.21 731 2.0
Sep‐23 20.17 11.20 897 18.81 11.29 752 0.0 0.0
Apr‐22
Apr‐23
Dec‐21
Feb‐22
Jun‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Oct‐23 19.87 10.82 906 18.94 11.52 741
Nov‐23 21.11 10.75 1,036 18.84 11.55 729
Dec‐23 21.00 10.87 1,013 18.88 11.61 727
‐15
percent
May‐23 ‐8.43 ‐17.47 ‐17.83 ‐26.87
Jun‐23 ‐8.88 ‐18.77 ‐9.08 ‐18.97 ‐20
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Dec‐21
Jun‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Sep‐23 ‐9.83 ‐18.80 ‐11.23 ‐20.20
Oct‐23 ‐10.13 ‐19.18 ‐6.93 ‐15.98
* Using YoY National CPI Inflation
Nov‐23 ‐9.29 ‐19.65 ‐8.09 ‐18.45
2
Dec‐23 ‐9.80 ‐19.93 ‐8.70 ‐18.83 Nominal rate less National CPI inflation (12‐month moving average).
Sources: Core Statistics Department, SBP & Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 3
Nominal rate less National CPI inflation (year on year with base 2015‐16).
Financial Markets 24
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
percent
percent
0.0
‐6.0
‐2.0
‐9.0 ‐4.0
‐12.0 ‐6.0
‐15.0 ‐8.0
Dec‐21
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐22
Aug‐23
Dec‐21
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
6‐M KIBOR 6‐M KIBOR
6.0 6.0
3.0 4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
percent
‐3.0
percent
‐2.0
‐6.0
‐4.0
‐9.0
‐6.0
‐12.0 ‐8.0
‐15.0 ‐10.0
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐21
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Dec‐23
Aug‐22
Aug‐23
Dec‐21
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Weighted Average Lending Rates1 Weighted Average Lending Rates1
(Incremental) (Incremental)
6.0 6.0
3.0 4.0
0.0 2.0
‐3.0 0.0
percent
percent
‐6.0 ‐2.0
‐9.0 ‐4.0
‐12.0 ‐6.0
‐15.0 ‐8.0
‐18.0 ‐10.0
Dec‐21
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Dec‐21
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Jun‐22
Jun‐23
‐3.0 2.0
‐6.0 0.0
‐2.0
‐9.0
percent
percent
‐4.0
‐12.0
‐6.0
‐15.0
‐8.0
‐18.0 ‐10.0
‐21.0 ‐12.0
Dec‐21
Apr‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Apr‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
Feb‐22
Jun‐22
Feb‐23
Jun‐23
Dec‐21
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Dec‐23
1
Weighted average lending and deposit rates excluding transactions in the interbank and on zero markup.
Sources: PBS and Core Statistics Department, SBP
Financial Markets 25
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
2,000
25.00
billion Rs
1,500
percent
20.00
1,000
500 15.00
‐
9‐Feb‐23
23‐Feb‐23
9‐Mar‐23
27‐Mar‐23
6‐Apr‐23
20‐Apr‐23
4‐May‐23
18‐May‐23
15‐Jun‐23
22‐Jun‐23
10‐Aug‐23
24‐Aug‐23
7‐Sep‐23
21‐Sep‐23
5‐Oct‐23
19‐Oct‐23
2‐Nov‐23
16‐Nov‐23
30‐Nov‐23
14‐Dec‐23
28‐Dec‐23
10.00
1‐Jun‐23
13‐Jul‐23
25‐Jul‐23
11‐Jan‐24
Feb‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
PIB (Fixed Rate) Auction (billion Rs (Face value); rates in percent)4 PIB (Floating rate Semi Annual) Auction (billion Rs (Face value))
3‐Year 5‐Year 10‐Year 15‐Year 20‐Year Total Target 3‐Year 5‐Year 10‐Year Total Target
5
Cut‐off rate 11.7 11.6 11.5 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ ‐ ‐
FY22Q3 Offered 583.5 667.0 530.7 6.5 5.5 1,793.2 FY22Q3 Offered ‐ 37.8 20.0 57.8
Accepted 141.0 165.4 119.5 ‐ ‐ 425.9 300.0 Accepted ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 300.0
5 5
Cut‐off rate 14.0 13.2 13.2 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price ‐ ‐ ‐
FY22Q4 Offered 399.4 664.8 789.3 22.1 ‐ 1,875.6 FY22Q4 Offered ‐ 41.8 8.8 50.5
Accepted 58.8 229.5 331.9 ‐ ‐ 620.2 350.0 Accepted ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 350.0
5
Cut‐off rate 13.9 13.4 13.0 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 96.0 ‐
FY23Q1 Offered 425.8 969.5 576.0 5.7 ‐ 1,977.0 FY23Q1 Offered ‐ 159.6 32.5 192.1
Accepted 108.8 498.4 10.7 ‐ ‐ 617.9 500.0 Accepted ‐ 91.6 ‐ 91.6 300.0
Cut‐off rate5 13.8 13.4 ‐ ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 95.4 93.8
FY23Q2 Offered 230.6 528.3 218.5 ‐ ‐ 977.4 FY23Q2 Offered ‐ 1,662.0 156.3 1,818.3
Accepted 79.9 135.2 ‐ ‐ ‐ 215.1 525.0 Accepted ‐ 1,140.7 99.6 1,240.2 350.0
5
Cut‐off rate 18.1 13.8 ‐ ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
FY23Q3 Offered 96.0 83.3 179.1 ‐ ‐ 358.4 FY23Q3 Offered ‐ 24.5 11.5 36.0
Accepted 25.0 0.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ 25.1 300.0 Accepted ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 300.0
5 5
Cut‐off rate 19.4 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price ‐ 94.54 ‐ ‐ ‐
FY23Q4 Offered 752.7 131.3 203.7 ‐ ‐ 1,087.7 FY23Q4 Offered ‐ 747.6 ‐ 747.6
Accepted 419.7 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 419.7 520.0 Accepted ‐ 547.0 ‐ 547.0 510.0
5
Cut‐off rate 19.3 17.0 15.3 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 95.4 ‐
FY24Q1 Offered 449.6 92.2 174.8 ‐ ‐ 716.5 FY24Q1 Offered ‐ 2,125.4 ‐ 2,125.4
Accepted 148.9 0.3 0.1 ‐ ‐ 149.3 480.0 Accepted ‐ 1,258.0 ‐ 1,258.0 560.0
5
Cut‐off rate 17.2 15.9 15.0 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 96.34 93.93 ‐
FY24Q2 Offered 1,111.3 247.0 286.4 ‐ ‐ 1,644.7 FY24Q2 Offered ‐ 3,334.9 1,273.3 4,608.2
Accepted 364.5 76.5 168.6 ‐ ‐ 609.5 510.0 Accepted ‐ 1,586.6 845.5 2,432.1 1,020.0
"‐": Either no bid received or bids were rejected. 4
Excluding non‐competitive bids and short‐selling accommodation Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 96.49 94.41 ‐
5
Quarterly rate/ margin are for end‐period. *up to Jan 15, 2024 FY24Q3* Offered ‐ 321.8 232.9 554.6
PIB (Floating rate Quarterly) Auction (billion Rs (Face value))6 Accepted ‐ 98.3 50.0 148.3 120.0
7
2‐Year 3‐Year 5‐Year 10‐Year Total Target 3 & 5‐year Fixed Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs)
Cut‐off Price5 99.5 99.2 ‐ ‐ Total Fixed rental
Target Total offered
FY22 Offered 1,383.3 2,620.6 ‐ ‐ 4,003.9 ‐ accepted rate8
Accepted 889.1 1,661.6 ‐ ‐ 2,550.7 1,335.0 FY21 120.0 83.2 52.5 8.4
5
Cut‐off Price 99.5 99.2 ‐ ‐ Q1 60.0 56.0 44.3 8.4
Q1 Offered 320.0 834.9 ‐ ‐ 1,154.9 Q2 45.0 18.5 ‐
Accepted 139.0 636.5 ‐ ‐ 775.5 335.0 Q3 15.0 8.8 8.3 9.5
5
Cut‐off Price 99.1 98.3 ‐ ‐ Q4 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Q2 Offered 575.2 281.5 ‐ ‐ 856.7 FY22 250.00 746.77 377.79
Accepted 443.7 144.8 ‐ ‐ 588.5 350.0 Q1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Cut‐off Price5 99.2 98.4 ‐ ‐ Q2 100.0 208.1 80.7 11.4
Q3 Offered 172.2 832.1 ‐ ‐ 1,004.3 Q3 75.0 422.9 255.8 11.4
Accepted 137.0 648.6 ‐ ‐ 785.6 300.0 Q4 75.00 115.77 41.23 12.49
Cut‐off Price5 91.1 97.3 ‐ ‐ FY23 505.00 553.02 256.33
Q4 Offered 315.9 672.1 ‐ ‐ 988.1 Q1 65.0 78.1 19.7 12.5
Accepted 169.4 231.8 ‐ ‐ 401.2 350.0 Q2 120.0 5.6 0.3 12.5
5
Cut‐off Price 98.6 97.1 Q3 110.0 6.2 1.2 12.5
FY23 Offered 3,495.3 2,325.8 ‐ ‐ 5,821.1 ‐ Q4 210.00 463.14 235.28 18.49
Accepted 2,358.6 1,381.4 ‐ ‐ 3,740.0 2,200.0 FY24 480.00 1,194.67 493.97
5
Cut‐off Price 98.9 97.5 ‐ ‐ ‐ Q1 240.0 415.2 201.9 16.5
Q1 Offered 743.2 1,188.4 ‐ ‐ 1,931.6 Q2 240.0 779.5 292.1 15.8
Accepted 377.7 767.0 ‐ ‐ 1,144.7 320.0 7
DMMD Circular No. 06 of 2020 dated April 14, 2020
Cut‐off Price5 99.0 97.8 8
Fixed rental rate will be applicable to entire bids, and for the entire tenor of fixed rental rate ;
Q2 Offered 598.3 731.3 ‐ ‐ 1,329.6 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP
Accepted 469.2 418.2 ‐ ‐ 887.4 490.0 3 & 5‐year Variable Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs; margin in bps)
5
Cut‐off Price 98.5 96.7 Total Total Fixed rental
Target 8
Q3 Offered 1,655.4 216.8 ‐ ‐ 1,872.1 offered accepted rate
Accepted 5 1,291.2 105.5 ‐ ‐ 1,396.7 670.0 FY20 300.0 597.0 186.1 (10.0)
Cut‐off Price 98.6 97.0 FY21 230.0 604.8 383.2
Q4 Offered 498.5 189.2 ‐ ‐ 687.7 FY22 750.0 1,414.3 1,139.9
Accepted 5 220.5 90.7 ‐ ‐ 311.2 720.0 Q1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Cut‐off Price 98.7 97.3 Q2 300.0 586.4 507.2 100.0
FY24 Offered 973.4 1,760.0 ‐ ‐ 2,733.4 ‐ Q3 225.0 313.0 201.7 100.5
Accepted 5 538.3 767.0 ‐ ‐ 1,305.3 2,220.0 Q4 225.0 514.9 431.0 100.2
Cut‐off Price 98.6 97.3 FY23 835.0 705.1 377.5
Q1 Offered 632.2 650.3 ‐ ‐ 1,282.5 Q1 195.0 220.3 101.1 12.5
Accepted 5 405.4 460.0 ‐ ‐ 865.3 800.0 Q2 280.0 372.0 241.0 12.5
Cut‐off Price 99.0 98.1 Q3 360.0 112.8 35.5 12.5
Q2 Offered 337.4 1,029.2 ‐ ‐ 1,366.6 Q4 520.0 695.1 426.9 18.49
Accepted 133.0 296.5 ‐ ‐ 429.5 1,260.0 FY24 740.0 1,797.2 715.7
Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 98.1 Q1 420.0 984.8 449.9 99.7
Q3* Offered 3.8 80.5 ‐ ‐ 84.3 Q2 320.0 812.5 265.8 98.8
9
Accepted ‐ 10.5 ‐ ‐ 10.5 160.0 This cut‐off margin, with the benchmark of 6‐month MTB Auction Weighted Yield,
6
DMMD Circular No. 23 of 2020 dated October 16, 2020 *up to Jan 15, 2024 is applicable to all accepted bids;
Special Issuances to IPPs (billion Rs) Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP
PFL (S.A 10 Y ) G.I.S (VRR 05 Years)
FY23
Q1
Q2
Q3 58.6
Q4 21.9
Financial Markets 26
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐24
Feb‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Sep‐23
Dec‐23
JPY* 1.89 1.95 1.99 5.27 (15.00)
USD Kerb 279.92 283.25 288.50 3.07 (15.63) Updated till January 25, 2024
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Jan‐24
Feb‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Feb‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
USD/EUR 1.09 1.08 1.09 0.51 (4.09)
SGD/USD 1.34 1.34 1.35 (0.69) (5.40) Q4‐FY21 158.60 152.08 157.54 154.59 4.24
1
Updated upto January 25, 2024.
Q1‐FY22 170.75 157.65 170.66 164.62 6.55
PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Fiscal Year Basis Q2‐FY22 178.35 169.60 176.51 174.48 6.81
Volatility
High Low Close Average 2
C/C Q3‐FY22 183.70 174.32 183.48 177.46 3.52
FY17 104.97 104.26 104.85 104.80 0.78 Q4‐FY22 212.10 181.00 204.85 194.96 10.81
FY18 122.50 104.88 121.50 109.97 3.14 Q1‐FY23 242.00 204.00 228.45 224.56 15.05
FY19 164.50 121.54 160.05 136.27 8.84 Q2‐FY23 228.75 216.75 226.43 222.82 4.58
FY20 169.50 154.13 168.05 158.26 5.21 Q3‐FY23 287.00 226.75 283.79 261.08 18.00
FY21 168.75 151.50 157.54 160.33 4.03 Q4‐FY23 299.90 283.25 285.99 286.04 6.25
FY22 212.10 157.65 204.85 178.01 6.89 Q1‐FY24 307.75 271.00 287.74 291.57 10.09
FY23 299.90 204.00 285.99 248.00 10.96 Q2‐FY24 288.65 275.65 281.86 283.24 3.51
3
FY24 307.75 271.00 280.24 286.88 6.41 Q3‐FY243 281.75 280.57 280.24 281.20 2.24
2
Reuters: Average Close‐to‐Close Daily Volatility (in %)
3
Updated upto January 15, 2024; High/Low rates of M2M.
Financial Markets 27
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecP
Sep 57.47 ‐ ‐3.25 ‐3.72 ‐11.93 ‐18.41 ‐17.78 ‐34.62 ‐35.07 ‐35.99 ‐33.99
2021
Dec 55.61 ‐ ‐ ‐0.49 ‐8.98 ‐15.67 ‐15.02 ‐32.42 ‐32.89 ‐33.84 ‐31.77
DecP 37.94 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecP
Sep 170.09 ‐ 3.36 3.21 10.19 14.99 21.27 33.93 38.22 46.60 53.19
2021
Dec 175.81 ‐ ‐ ‐0.15 6.60 11.25 17.33 29.58 33.72 41.83 48.21
P
Dec 260.57 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Sep 97.76 ‐ 0.00 ‐0.63 ‐2.97 ‐6.19 ‐0.29 ‐12.43 ‐10.26 ‐6.17 1.13
2021
Dec 97.76 ‐ ‐ ‐0.63 ‐2.97 ‐6.19 ‐0.29 ‐12.43 ‐10.26 ‐6.17 1.13
DecP 98.86 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Note: The REER and NEER have been recalculated since Jan, 2013 using these revised weights and number of trading partners. For detail, please visit the Revision Study at
P
https://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/stats/NEER‐REER.pdf : Provisional
Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP
Financial Markets 28
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
Capital Market
Performance of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)
Percentage change during
1 2
Jan‐24 Dec‐23 FY23 FY22 Jan‐24 FY23 FY22
TM
End‐period KSE ‐100 index 64,298 62,451 41,453 41,541 3.0 ‐0.2 ‐12.3
TM
End‐period KSE ‐30 index 21,699 20,777 14,637 15,805 4.4 ‐7.4 ‐16.6
3
Market capitalization (billion Rs) 9,359 9,171 6,563 7,714 2.0 ‐14.9 ‐1.4
3
Trade volume (million shares) 518 1,031 192 300 ‐ ‐ ‐
4
SCRA flows (US$ million) 46.4 26 ‐143 ‐1,228 ‐ ‐ ‐
1
Updated upto January 25, 2024
2
Reflects growth since end of the previous month
3
Average during the period
4
Cumulative net flow during the period. Daily SCRA is updated till January 19, 2024.
KSE ‐100 Index and Ready Volume Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market
Volume of Shares KSE‐100 index (RHS) (as percent of market capitalization)
2000 70,000 5.20
1800 65,000
1600
60,000 4.90
Million shares
1400
1200 55,000
1000 50,000 4.60
800 45,000
600
40,000 4.30
400
200 35,000
0 30,000 4.00
Feb‐22
Sep‐22
Feb‐23
Sep‐23
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Feb‐22
Jun‐22
Sep‐22
Feb‐23
Jun‐23
Sep‐23
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Source: PSX Updated upto January 25, 2024 Sources: PSX and CSD, SBP
40 65,000
20 4.0
60,000
0
Million US$
55,000 3.5
‐20
50,000
‐40
45,000 3.0
‐60
‐80 40,000
2.5
‐100 35,000
‐120 30,000 2.0
Feb‐22
Apr‐22
Jun‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
May‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
May‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
Source: PSX and CSD, SBP Updated upto January 25, 2024
Source: PSX and DSID, SBP
5
This includes listed companies of Non‐Finanical Sector only.
Sources: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and SBP.
Financial Markets 29
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024
(percent)
24.0
900 22.0 1.4
percent
20.0 1.2
800 8.0 18.0
700 16.0 1.0
7.5 14.0
600 12.0 0.8
10.0
500 7.0 8.0 0.6
Sep‐21
Dec‐21
Mar‐22
Sep‐22
Dec‐22
Mar‐23
Sep‐23
Jun‐22
Jun‐23
Dec‐21
Mar‐22
Dec‐22
Mar‐23
Sep‐21
Jun‐22
Sep‐22
Jun‐23
Sep‐23
Financial Markets 30