MPS Jan 2024 Compendium

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Monetary Policy Information Compendium

January 2024

Consolidated by

Data Services and Innovations Department

STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN


Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Tables and Graphs

Real Sector
 Growth …………………………………………………………………........ 1
 Savings and Investment .……….……………………………………... 3
 Inflation …………………………………………………………………….. 5

External Sector
 Balance of Payments …………………………………………………... 8
 Trade and Foreign Investment……………………………………… 9
 Global Economy …………………………………………………………. 10
Fiscal Accounts and Debt
 Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances ……………….. 12
 Government Domestic Debt ……………………………………........ 13
 Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities………………………... 14
 Overall Debt and Liabilities.……………………………………….... 15
Monetary Sector
 Monetary and Credit Aggregates ………………………………..… 16
 Private Sector Credit ………………………………………………….... 18
 Key Indicators of Monetary Sector………………………………… 19
 Trends in Monetary Aggregates……………………………..……… 20
Financial Markets
 Money Market ………………………………………………………….... 21
 Foreign Exchange Market …………………………………………… 27
 Capital Market ………………………………………………………….... 29
 Financial Soundness Indicators …………………………………… 30
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Growth
Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector* (percent)
Cumulative Change Overall change
YoY Change (Nov) 12‐months MA change
Groups Weights During (Jul‐Nov) (Jul‐Jun)
FY24 FY23 FY24 FY23 FY24 FY23 FY23 FY22
Overall 78.4 1.6 ‐4.9 ‐9.8 7.3 ‐0.8 ‐2.3 ‐10.3 11.7
Food 10.7 1.8 ‐13.5 ‐3.5 5.4 4.3 ‐8.2 ‐7.1 8.3
Beverages 3.8 19.1 ‐10.1 ‐2.6 ‐4.6 2.3 ‐7.8 ‐6.6 0.9
Tobacco 2.1 ‐43.8 ‐20.2 ‐35.1 ‐1.7 ‐39.3 ‐22.3 ‐28.4 15.9
Textile 18.2 0.4 ‐22.1 ‐19.5 ‐3.8 ‐12.7 ‐11.5 ‐18.7 2.8
Wearing Apparel 6.1 27.8 67.4 11.7 69.3 20.9 71.7 25.7 49.4
Leather Products 1.2 3.6 6.8 ‐0.4 1.3 2.6 7.6 1.5 0.9
Wood Products 0.2 31.8 ‐81.2 ‐40.6 ‐9.8 5.3 ‐63.8 ‐59.8 115.4
Paper & Board 1.6 ‐5.3 ‐3.0 ‐9.2 9.6 ‐4.3 ‐3.1 ‐8.6 18.7
Coke & Petroleum Products 6.7 2.8 5.3 ‐5.5 ‐7.3 6.5 ‐13.6 ‐13.4 0.7
Chemicals 6.5 9.2 ‐6.2 ‐5.2 7.6 4.0 ‐0.6 ‐6.9 8.7
Pharmaceuticals Products 5.2 23.6 ‐8.6 ‐13.1 6.0 34.4 ‐23.3 ‐28.8 13.6
Rubber Products 0.2 ‐4.5 ‐9.3 0.4 ‐3.3 0.8 ‐9.1 ‐3.8 ‐15.8
Non Metalic Mineral Products 5.0 ‐4.9 ‐13.1 ‐6.6 ‐4.5 2.0 ‐12.4 ‐12.1 1.0
Iron & Steel Products 3.4 ‐0.6 ‐8.7 ‐5.5 7.6 ‐1.8 ‐0.9 ‐5.1 16.3
Fabricated Metal 0.4 ‐4.2 ‐14.5 ‐9.3 ‐9.4 0.0 ‐17.4 ‐16.1 ‐3.7
Computer, Electronics and Optical Products 0.0 ‐15.2 ‐29.8 ‐33.5 ‐0.2 ‐23.3 ‐17.2 ‐30.3 3.6
Electrical Equipment 2.0 ‐7.8 ‐9.5 ‐19.0 1.4 ‐12.3 ‐3.5 ‐15.4 ‐0.1
Machinery and Equipment N.E.C 0.4 99.5 ‐57.1 ‐18.5 ‐7.4 64.7 ‐41.1 ‐45.3 15.4
Automobiles 3.1 ‐66.1 ‐18.9 ‐59.8 7.6 ‐52.9 ‐28.8 ‐50.0 47.4
Other Transport Equipment 0.7 ‐21.9 ‐39.6 ‐32.0 ‐26.4 ‐14.6 ‐41.5 ‐40.8 ‐11.2
Furniture 0.5 ‐68.0 27.9 ‐20.5 93.6 ‐55.4 88.9 46.5 180.2
Other Manufacturing (football) 0.3 7.5 58.1 4.4 60.7 8.4 60.2 20.6 43.2
* Base Year: 2015‐16

Overall LSM Growth (YoY and Cumulative)


Overall LSM Index
FY23‐YoY FY24‐YoY FY23‐Cummulative FY24‐Cummulative
170
5
150 0
130 ‐5

110 ‐10
Index

percent

‐15
90
‐20
70
‐25
50
‐30
Nov‐20

Jan‐21

Mar‐21

May‐21
Jul‐21

Sep‐21
Nov‐21

Jan‐22

Mar‐22
May‐22

Jul‐22
Sep‐22

Nov‐22

Jan‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jul‐23
Sep‐23

Nov‐23

Mar

Apr
Jul

Sep

Jan

Feb

Jun
Nov

May
Aug

Oct

Dec

Major Crops
Production Area under cultivation Yield
percent percent percent
(Million Tons) (Million Hectares) (Kg/Hectare)
change change change
FY23 Over FY23 Over FY23 Over
FY23P FY22 FY21 FY23P FY22 FY23P FY22
FY22 FY22 FY22
Cotton1 4.9 8.3 7.1 ‐41.0 2.1 1.9 10.7 390 731 ‐46.6
Sugarcane 91.1 88.7 81.0 2.8 1.3 1.3 4.7 69,085 70,341 ‐1.8
Rice 7.3 9.3 8.4 ‐21.5 3.0 3.5 ‐15.9 2,460 2,635 ‐6.6
Wheat 27.6 26.2 27.5 5.4 9.0 9.0 0.7 3,056 2,920 4.7
P
: Provisional
1
Cotton production is stated in million bales of 375 lbs each.
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan Economic Survey.

Real Sector 1
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Quarterly GDP Growth Rates


Quarterly Growth Rates (YoY) of GDP (at Constant Basic Prices of 2015‐16)
(percent)
FY24, Q1 FY23, Q1 FY23, Q4 Quarterly Sector‐wise GDP Growth at basic prices
Growth Share Growth (percent)
Agriculture 5.1 24.2 0.3 1.3 Agriculture Sector Services Sector Industrial Sector
6.0
Crops 6.1 7.6 ‐7.4 ‐5.8
4.0
Livestock 4.6 15.7 4.0 4.4
2.0
Forestry 7.1 0.6 13.4 12.4
0.0
Fishing 0.5 0.3 1.3 1.5
‐2.0
Industry 2.5 18.8 ‐1.6 ‐8.8 ‐4.0
Mining & Quarrying 2.2 1.5 ‐17.7 1.0 ‐6.0
Manufacturing 3.4 11.8 1.1 ‐10.0 ‐8.0
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0.1 3.3 ‐0.7 3.8 ‐10.0
Construction 1.7 2.2 ‐3.6 ‐22.3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Services 0.8 57.0 2.1 ‐2.3 FY23 FY24

Wholesale & Retail Trade 3.1 17.9 0.1 ‐7.7


Quarterly Growth in GDP at basic price (percent)
Transport& Storage 1.7 10.5 3.0 1.6
Accommodation and Food Services Activities
4.7 1.5 4.0 4.4 7.2
(Hotels & Restaurants) 6.8
6.1
Information and Communication 2.4 2.8 ‐1.6 ‐7.5
Finance & Insurance Activities ‐12.8 1.6 0.9 ‐18.2 4.6

Real Estate Activities (Ownership of Dwellings)


4.2 5.8 3.6 3.9 1.8
2.1
1.0
Public Administration and Social Security
(General Government) ‐16.7 3.5 ‐5.5 ‐10.9 ‐0.6
Education ‐0.1 2.9 10.5 9.6 ‐2.7

Human Health and Social Work Activities ‐1.1 1.6 10.8 9.5
Other Private Services 4.0 8.9 5.3 4.5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
GDP at Basic Price 2.1 100.0 1.0 ‐2.7 FY22 FY23 FY24

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Real Sector 2
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Production Approach ‐ GDP at Constant Prices of 2015‐16 (percent)


FY23R Growth Growth in Real GDP at basic price (percent)
Growth Share Contribution2 FY22F FY21
Actual Target

9.0
Agriculture of which 2.3 23.2 0.5 4.3 3.5
8.0
Crops ‐1.0 7.9 ‐0.1 8.2 5.8 7.0 6.2
Livestock 3.7 14.4 0.5 2.3 2.4 6.0
4.8 5.0
Fishing 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 5.0 4.0
4.0 3.5
Forestry 14.2 0.6 0.1 4.1 3.3
3.0
Industry ‐3.8 18.4 ‐0.7 6.9 8.2 2.1
2.0
Mining & quarrying ‐3.4 1.6 ‐0.1 ‐6.6 1.7 1.0
Manufacturing ‐5.3 11.9 ‐0.7 10.9 10.5 0.0
Large‐scale ‐9.9 8.4 ‐0.9 11.9 11.5 ‐1.0
‐2.0
Small Scale 9.1 2.2 0.2 8.9 9.0 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Slaughtering 6.4 1.3 0.1 6.3 6.1
Electricity & Gas distribution 9.8 2.6 0.2 3.8 9.0
Construction ‐9.2 2.3 ‐0.2 1.8 2.4
Services 0.1 58.4 0.0 6.7 5.9 Growth in Agriculture (percent)
Wholesale & retail trade ‐4.0 18.1 ‐0.8 10.3 10.8 Actual Target
Transport Storage and 6.0
Communications 3.3 10.6 0.3 4.1 4.9
5.0
Hotels & Restaurants 4.1 1.5 0.1 4.1 4.1 3.9
3.8
Information and Communication ‐2.6 2.8 ‐0.1 18.0 9.8 4.0 3.5 3.5
Finance & insurance ‐8.1 1.7 ‐0.2 7.0 5.5 2.8
3.0 3.5
Real Estate Activities (OD) 3.7 5.8 0.2 3.7 3.6
General Government ‐9.0 4.3 ‐0.4 1.8 ‐0.5 2.0
Education 9.9 3.0 0.3 5.8 ‐1.2
1.0
Human Health and Social Work 10.6 1.7 0.2 2.7 2.9
Other Private Services 5.0 8.8 0.4 4.8 5.1 0.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Real GDP (basic prices) ‐0.2 100.0 ‐0.2 6.2 5.8

FY23R FY22F FY21


Real GDP (bp, billion Rs) 38,775 38,839 36,582
Nominal GDP (mp, billion Rs) 84,069 66,640 55,836
Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$)1 356 374 348
Expenditure Approach ‐ GDP at Constant Prices of 2015‐16 (percent) Growth in Industry (percent)
R Actual Target
FY23 Growth 10.0
Growth Share Contribution2 FY22F FY21 8.0 7.6
6.5 5.9
Consumption 1.7 100.5 1.5 6.2 8.6 6.0
3.4
Household final consumption 2.5 90.2 2.0 7.2 9.5 4.0
2.3
2.0
NPISH final consumption ‐8.4 0.8 ‐0.1 ‐1.8 2.7 0.1
0.0
Government final consumption ‐4.9 9.5 ‐0.4 ‐1.3 1.8 ‐2.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation ‐16.3 10.0 ‐1.7 3.3 3.7 ‐4.0
Private Sector ‐14.6 7.7 ‐1.2 0.2 1.5 ‐6.0
Public Sector plus General ‐8.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Government ‐21.6 2.3 ‐0.6 13.7 11.8
Changes in Stocks 0.0 1.6 0.0 4.8 6.5
Growth in Services (percent)
Valuables 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8 6.5
Actual Target
Net exports of goods and nonfactor 9.0
services 2.5 ‐13.0 0.3 ‐15.5 ‐22.6
6.5
Plus Exports of Goods and Non‐ 7.0
4.8 5.1
Factor Services 2.4 10.5 0.2 5.9 6.5 5.0
4.7
Less Imports of Goods and Non‐ 3.6
2.6
Factor Services ‐0.3 22.7 ‐0.1 11.0 14.5 3.0

Gross Domestic Product (mp) 0.0 100.0 0.0 4.8 6.5 1.0
less Indirect Taxes ‐3.0 6.9 ‐0.2 0.4 18.1
‐1.0
plus Subsidies ‐19.2 1.5 ‐0.4 107.9 15.1
Gross Domestic Product (bp) ‐0.2 94.7 ‐0.2 6.2 5.8 ‐3.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
Total domestic demand3 ‐0.3 112.3 ‐0.3 5.9 8.0
1 GDP in dollar terms is calculated using weighted average exchange rate during the year.
2 Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). 3 Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation, change in stock and valuables
expenditures on real GDP. 4 Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies.
bp = Basic Prices and mp = Market Prices
R F T
: Revised; : Final; : Target.
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan.

Real Sector 3
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Savings and Investment

Savings and Investment (at current market prices)


as percent of GDP
FY24 Actual Trends in Savings and Investment
Target FY23R FY22F FY21 Savings Investment
A. Investment 15.1 13.7 15.4 14.5 18.0
Gross Fixed Investment 13.4 12.0 13.7 12.8
Private Sector 10.2 9.0 10.2 9.9 16.0
Public Sector incl. General Govt. 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.0

percent of GDP
Change in Capital Stocks 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
14.0
B. National Savings 13.4 12.6 11.1 13.7
Savings Investment Gap (B ‐ A) ‐1.7 ‐1.1 ‐4.3 ‐0.8
12.0

Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors1 (at Current Market prices) 10.0
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24T
FY23R Percent of GDP
Note: Dotted line represents Target.
Percent
Percent of
share in FY22F FY21
GDP
total
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2.7 22.3 2.7 2.7 Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors1
Mining and quarrying 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 Agriculture Manufacturing
Manufacturing 1.0 8.4 1.5 1.7 Public Adminis. and Social Security Real Estate
Others
Electricity, gas, and water supply 0.7 5.7 0.6 0.6
Construction 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 12.0
5.7 5.1
Wholesale and retail trade 0.5 4.0 0.7 0.8 5.1 4.8
10.0 4.2
Accommodation and food service ac 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1

as percent of GDP
Transportation and storage 0.8 6.5 1.3 1.1 8.0
1.8
1.6 1.7 1.6
Information and communication 0.3 2.3 0.6 0.4 2.0
6.0
Financial and insurance activities 0.2 1.4 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.5
2.1
Real estate activities (Ownership of 4.0
2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5
Dwellings) 2.0 16.6 1.8 1.6 1.0

Public Administration and Social 2.0


2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7
Security (General Government) 2.1 17.8 2.5 1.9
0.0
Education 0.5 3.9 0.5 0.5 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22R FY23P
Human health and social work
activities 0.3 2.8 0.3 0.3
Other Private Services 0.7 6.0 0.7 0.6
Total 12.0 100.0 13.7 12.8

1
Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available.
R
: Revised; F: Final; T: Target.

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan.

Real Sector 4
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Inflation
1
(Calculated from price indices with base year 2015‐16)

CPI (Percentage)
General Food Non‐Food
Period National Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM
Dec‐22 24.5 19.9 0.5 21.6 18.4 0.3 28.8 22.0 0.7 32.7 23.7 0.0 37.9 25.9 0.1 14.8 15.2 0.6 20.7 18.5 1.4
Jan‐23 27.6 21.1 2.9 24.4 19.4 2.4 32.3 23.7 3.6 39.0 25.9 3.9 45.2 28.7 5.7 15.6 15.4 1.2 20.9 19.1 1.5
Feb‐23 31.5 22.7 4.3 28.8 20.8 4.5 35.6 25.5 4.0 41.9 28.2 4.3 47.0 31.4 3.9 20.8 16.3 4.7 25.3 20.2 4.1
Mar‐23 35.4 24.6 3.7 33.0 22.6 3.9 38.9 27.6 3.5 47.1 30.9 5.6 50.2 34.3 4.5 24.1 17.5 2.7 28.5 21.6 2.4
Apr‐23 36.4 26.6 2.4 33.5 24.4 2.0 40.7 29.8 3.0 46.8 33.5 3.4 52.2 37.3 4.2 24.9 18.7 1.0 29.9 23.0 1.6
May‐23 38.0 28.6 1.6 35.1 26.3 1.5 42.2 32.0 1.7 48.1 36.3 1.9 52.4 40.0 1.4 26.6 20.0 1.2 32.5 24.6 2.0
Jun‐23 29.4 29.2 ‐0.3 27.3 26.9 0.1 32.4 32.6 ‐0.8 40.8 37.6 0.1 41.5 41.1 ‐1.6 18.7 20.1 0.1 23.8 24.8 0.1
Jul‐23 28.3 29.4 3.5 26.3 27.0 3.6 31.3 32.9 3.3 40.2 38.6 3.7 41.3 42.0 3.5 17.3 19.8 3.5 22.0 24.6 3.0
Aug‐23 27.4 29.4 1.7 25.0 26.9 1.6 30.9 33.1 1.9 38.8 39.4 0.6 40.6 42.7 0.8 16.3 19.1 2.4 22.0 24.1 3.1
Sep‐23 31.4 30.0 2.0 29.7 27.6 1.7 33.9 33.6 2.5 33.9 39.5 1.5 35.4 42.8 1.8 26.8 20.0 1.8 32.3 25.2 3.2
Oct‐23 26.8 30.0 1.0 25.5 27.6 1.1 28.7 33.5 0.9 28.9 38.8 0.6 28.6 41.7 0.7 23.1 20.4 1.4 28.8 25.7 1.1
Nov‐23 29.2 30.4 2.7 30.4 28.3 4.3 27.5 33.4 0.4 29.8 38.6 0.8 29.2 41.1 1.0 30.9 21.7 7.0 25.9 26.0 ‐0.2
Dec‐23 29.7 30.8 0.8 30.9 29.1 0.7 27.9 33.2 1.0 28.8 38.1 ‐0.7 29.3 40.2 0.1 32.4 23.2 1.8 26.4 26.5 1.8
Jul‐Dec* 28.8 28.0 30.0 33.2 33.7 24.4 26.2
* Period Average.

CPI Inflation (YoY) National CPI Inflation


CPI ‐ National CPI ‐ Urban CPI ‐ Rural YoY 12mma
45.0 44.0

40.0 39.0
35.0
34.0
30.0
29.0
25.0
24.0
20.0
19.0
15.0

10.0 14.0

5.0 9.0

0.0 4.0
Apr‐23
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23

Apr‐23
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Urban CPI Inflation Rural CPI Inflation
YoY 12mma YoY 12mma
39.0 49.0
44.0
34.0
39.0
29.0
34.0
24.0 29.0

19.0 24.0
19.0
14.0
14.0
9.0
9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐22

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23
CPI Inflation Food (YoY) CPI Inflation Non‐Food (YoY)

CPI ‐ Food ‐ Urban CPI ‐ Food ‐ Rural CPI ‐ Non Food ‐ Urban CPI ‐ Non Food ‐ Rural
64.0 35.0

54.0 30.0

25.0
44.0

20.0
34.0
15.0

24.0
10.0

14.0 5.0

4.0 0.0
Mar‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

May‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Dec‐22

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

1 National CPI is only available for headline Inflation. There is no National WPI, Core Inflation (i.e. NFNE and 20 percent Trimmed).
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Real Sector 5
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Inflation
(Calculated from price indices with base year 2015‐16)

Core Inflation (Percentage)


NFNE Trimmed
Period Urban Rural Urban Rural
YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM
Dec‐22 14.7 11.7 1.2 19.0 14.2 1.5 19.4 17.3 0.8 26.4 19.6 1.5
Jan‐23 15.4 12.3 1.4 19.4 15.0 1.5 20.9 17.7 1.5 27.8 21.1 2.1
Feb‐23 17.1 13.1 2.2 21.5 16.0 2.6 25.1 19.0 2.9 31.6 23.0 3.9
Mar‐23 18.6 13.9 2.5 23.1 17.1 2.4 28.7 20.6 2.7 35.0 25.0 2.9
Apr‐23 19.5 14.7 1.8 24.9 18.3 2.7 28.6 22.3 1.5 37.3 27.4 2.0
May‐23 20.0 15.6 1.2 26.9 19.6 2.5 30.5 24.4 1.5 38.8 30.0 2.0
Jun‐23 18.5 16.2 0.7 25.2 20.6 0.9 22.9 24.1 0.8 29.9 30.7 0.1
Jul‐23 18.4 16.7 1.2 24.6 21.4 1.2 21.7 24.8 1.9 28.7 30.8 2.4
Aug‐23 18.4 17.1 1.8 25.9 22.2 2.8 23.0 23.7 1.5 30.5 30.6 1.4
Sep‐23 18.6 17.4 1.0 27.3 23.0 2.6 25.0 24.4 1.1 33.3 31.1 1.7
Oct‐23 18.5 17.7 1.2 26.7 23.7 1.0 24.6 24.9 0.6 30.4 31.0 0.7
Nov‐23 18.6 18.1 0.9 25.9 24.3 1.4 22.9 24.8 0.1 27.9 30.8 0.5
Dec‐23 18.2 18.3 0.9 25.1 24.8 0.9 23.3 24.5 0.3 28.0 30.5 0.7
Jul‐Dec* 18.4 25.9 22.7 29.2
* Period Average.

Core Inflation‐NFNE (YoY) Core Inflation‐Trimmed (YoY)


Core Inflation ‐ NFNE ‐ Urban Core Inflation ‐ NFNE ‐ Rural
29.0 Core Inflation ‐ Trimmed ‐ Urban Core Inflation ‐ Trimmed ‐ Rural

44.0
24.0 39.0

34.0
19.0
29.0

24.0
14.0
19.0

9.0 14.0

9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Apr‐23

Jul‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23
Core Inflation‐NFNE (Urban) Core Inflation‐Trimmed (Urban)
YoY 12mma
YoY 12mma
22.0
34.0
20.0
18.0 29.0
16.0
24.0
14.0
12.0 19.0

10.0
14.0
8.0
6.0 9.0

4.0 4.0
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23

Dec‐22

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23
Core Inflation‐NFNE (Rural) Core Inflation‐Trimmed (Rural)
YoY 12mma
YoY 12mma
29.0
44.0

24.0 39.0

34.0
19.0 29.0

24.0
14.0
19.0

9.0 14.0

9.0
4.0 4.0
Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Apr‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Real Sector 6
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

CPI Inflation by Groups (National, Urban and Rural) ‐ Base Year: 2015‐16
Dec‐23
Urban Rural National
Groups
Weights YoY 12mma MoM Weights YoY 12mma MoM YoY 12mma MoM
Food and non‐alcoholic
30.4 27.4 36.7 ‐1.0 40.9 27.6 39.3 0.1 27.5 37.9 ‐0.5
Beverages
Non‐perishable food items 26.0 28.9 39.2 ‐0.3 35.1 28.5 42.0 0.4 28.7 40.5 0.1
Perishable food items 4.5 19.4 22.5 ‐5.3 5.8 22.3 23.6 ‐1.9 20.7 23.0 ‐3.7
Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.9 80.9 93.3 0.8 1.3 85.1 94.5 0.2 82.8 93.8 0.5
Clothing and footwear 8.0 18.0 18.6 0.4 9.5 24.1 22.2 0.8 20.7 20.2 0.6
Housing, water, Elec., Gas and
27.0 45.3 18.4 3.1 18.5 22.3 19.5 4.6 37.7 18.7 3.6
other fuels
Furnishing and household
4.1 30.0 36.8 0.8 4.1 36.2 39.5 1.0 32.5 37.9 0.9
equipment maintenance
Health 2.3 27.3 22.2 0.9 3.5 19.7 20.7 0.5 23.4 21.4 0.7
Transport 6.1 25.8 32.1 1.2 5.6 33.3 36.8 0.3 28.6 33.9 0.8
Communication 2.4 9.2 8.0 0.0 2.0 3.9 3.1 0.0 7.4 6.3 0.0
Recreation and culture 1.7 36.4 56.7 0.0 1.4 42.1 57.1 0.0 38.5 56.8 0.0
Education 4.9 12.7 8.7 0.3 2.1 16.7 16.4 0.0 13.5 10.3 0.2
Restaurants and hotels 7.4 29.9 35.7 0.8 6.2 32.1 33.1 0.6 30.7 34.8 0.7
Misc. goods and services 4.8 30.5 35.5 0.9 5.0 33.1 37.5 1.0 31.6 36.3 1.0
Overall 100.0 30.9 29.1 0.7 100.0 27.9 33.2 1.0 29.7 30.8 0.8

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (percent change) Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI)* (percent change)

Period YoY 12mma MoM Period YoY 12mma MoM


Dec‐22 27.1 31.3 ‐0.7 Dec‐22 29.7 26.2 0.3
Jan‐23 28.5 31.5 1.8 Jan‐23 31.7 27.2 1.3
Feb‐23 36.4 32.6 8.2 Feb‐23 37.1 28.7 5.4
Mar‐23 37.5 33.7 4.7 Mar‐23 44.0 31.1 5.7
Apr‐23 33.4 34.1 0.1 Apr‐23 45.9 33.6 2.4
May‐23 32.8 34.3 1.0 May‐23 47.0 36.1 1.3
Jun‐23 22.4 32.8 ‐0.3 Jun‐23 36.0 36.8 0.0
Jul‐23 23.1 31.4 2.5 Jul‐23 29.0 36.2 2.1
Aug‐23 24.3 30.1 4.2 Aug‐23 28.7 35.1 5.5
Sep‐23 26.4 29.1 3.1 Sep‐23 32.4 34.8 2.2
Oct‐23 24.6 28.4 ‐1.9 Oct‐23 35.4 35.3 ‐0.3
Nov‐23 26.4 28.3 1.4 Nov‐23 34.7 35.7 4.4
Dec‐23 27.3 28.3 0.0 Dec‐23 43.0 36.8 6.4
3‐year average for December 26.9 25.9 ‐0.3 3‐year average for December 30.6 25.7 2.3
* SPI Combined for all expenditure groups

WPI Inflation SPI Inflation


12mma YoY 50 12mma YoY
40
45
35
40
30 35
percent
percent

25 30
25
20
20
15 15
10 10
Feb‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Mar‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Sep‐23
Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23

Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) (percent change)


Expenditure Group (Quintile) 25‐Jan‐24 18‐Jan‐24 11‐Jan‐24 4‐Jan‐24 25‐Jan‐24 18‐Jan‐24 11‐Jan‐24 4‐Jan‐24
WoW YoY
Q1 (Upto Rs. 17,732) ‐0.33 0.61 1.20 0.81 36.23 37.23 36.06 35.33
Q2 (Rs. 17,733 ‐ 22,888) ‐0.29 0.54 1.34 0.84 41.40 42.35 41.24 40.20
Q3 (Rs. 22,889 ‐ 29,517) ‐0.21 0.46 1.29 0.79 47.49 48.43 47.48 46.38
Q4 (Rs. 29,518 ‐ 44,175) ‐0.17 0.40 1.28 0.83 44.85 45.69 44.95 43.75
Q5 (Above Rs. 44,175) ‐0.08 0.23 1.34 0.80 41.95 42.83 42.71 41.35
Combined ‐0.14 0.34 1.36 0.81 43.79 44.64 44.16 42.86

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Real Sector 7
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Balance of Payments
Balance of Payments ‐ Summary (Million US$)5
Jul‐Dec Current, Capital and Financial Account Balance (Billion US$)
Items FY23 FY22
FY24 FY23
Current & Capital Account Financial Account* Reserves & related items
A) Current Account Balance (CAB) ‐831 ‐3,629 ‐2,235 ‐17,481 5.0
4.0
3.0
Trade Balance ‐9,952 ‐15,366 ‐23,955 ‐39,050 2.0
1.0
0.0
Exports 15,289 14,223 27,879 32,493 ‐1.0
‐2.0
‐3.0
Imports 25,241 29,589 51,834 71,543 ‐4.0
‐5.0
Services (Net) ‐1,430 ‐270 ‐969 ‐5,840 ‐6.0

Mar‐22

Mar‐23
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22

Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23

Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Primary Income (Net) ‐3,738 ‐2,631 ‐5,671 ‐5,248
Secondary Income (Net); of which 14,289 14,638 28,360 32,657 *. Financial Account Balance represents Inflows to the economy.
Workers' Remittances 13,435 14,418 27,333 31,279
Current and Capital Account Balance (Billion US$)
B) Capital Account 88 317 375 205 Current and Capital Account Balance As % of GDP (RHS)
C) Current and Capital Account Balance ‐743 ‐3,312 ‐1,860 ‐17,276 0.0 0.0
1
D) Financial Account Balance ; of which ‐4,276 726 1,312 ‐11,261 ‐3.0 ‐1.0
Foreign Direct Investment (Net)2 ‐833 329 ‐590 ‐1,702 ‐6.0
‐2.0
Foreign Portfolio Investment (Net) ‐71 1,033 1,012 55 ‐9.0
‐3.0
Other Investment ‐ Net Acquisition of Financial Assets ‐208 ‐1,387 ‐1,029 2,613 ‐12.0
‐4.0
Other Investment ‐ Net Incurrence of Liabilities 3,164 ‐757 ‐1,928 12,226 ‐15.0

‐5.0
Of which: General Government 2,120 ‐278 ‐2,079 6,117 ‐18.0

of which: Disbursements 2,885 5,358 9,897 11,256 ‐21.0 ‐6.0

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23
Amortization 2,858 5,421 11,660 8,343
E) Net Errors and Omissions ‐527 ‐246 ‐1,046 ‐303 Financial Account Balance (Billion US$)
Financial Account Balance As % of GDP (RHS)
F) Reserves and Related Items 3,006 ‐4,284 ‐4,218 ‐6,318
4.0 1.0
SBP Gross Reserves3 9,443 6,159 5,669 11,090
4 0.0
0.0
SBP Net Liquid Reserves 8,233 5,586 4,445 9,815
‐1.0
As percent of GDP ‐4.0
‐2.0
Current Account Balance; of which ‐0.7 ‐4.7
‐8.0
Exports 8.2 8.7 ‐3.0

‐12.0
Imports 15.3 19.1 ‐4.0

Financial Inflows; of which 0.4 ‐3.0 ‐16.0 ‐5.0

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23
FDI ‐0.2 ‐0.5
1. In BPM6 classification, a positive number under financial account means outflow from the economy and vice versa. This means that we are net lender in such case and vice versa.
2. Net FDI equals direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad less direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan. Negative number represents inflow in the economy and vice versa.
3. SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but it excludes unsettled claims on RBI.
4. SBP reserves without CRR, foreign currency cash holding of SBP and Net ACU Balances.

5. Due to rounding off, figures of Trade of Good and Services, Workers' remittances, FDI, FPI and Government Disbursements may differ from source data.

Workers' Remittances7 (Million US$)


Jul‐Dec % Change Share
Workers' Remittances (Billion US$)
Jul‐Dec Jul‐Dec FY23 FY22
FY24 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY23 FY24

3.0
Total Inflows 13,435 14,418 ‐6.8 100 27,333 31,279
2.5
USA 1,577 1,616 ‐2.5 11.7 3,168 3,087
2.0

UK 1,988 2,000 ‐0.6 14.8 4,073 4,493


1.5

Saudi Arabia 3,254 3,571 ‐8.9 24.2 6,533 7,754 1.0

UAE 2,328 2,612 ‐10.9 17.3 4,656 5,846 0.5

Other GCC8 1,489 1,641 ‐9.3 11.1 3,198 3,625 0.0


Jul

Mar

Jun
Nov

May
Aug

Apr
Sep

Jan

Feb
Oct

Dec

All others 2,799 2,978 ‐6.0 20.8 5,705 6,473


7
. Only cash, 8. This includes Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.
Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP.

External Sector 8
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Trade and Foreign Investment


Trade in Goods ‐ Major Groups (Million US$)
Jul‐Dec Share1
Jul‐Dec FY23 FY22 Trade Balance (Billion US$)
FY24 FY23 FY24 FY23 FY24
Exports 15,289 14,223 100.0 27,879 32,493 0.0

Textile Group 8,214 9,032 53.7 16,632 18,442 ‐0.5

Knitwear, Bed Wear 3,487 3,910 22.8 7,045 7,777 ‐1.0

Cotton Cloth 957 1,183 6.3 2,155 2,343 ‐1.5


Cotton Yarn 573 527 3.7 870 1,201 ‐2.0
Readymade Garments 1,664 1,846 10.9 3,495 3,699 ‐2.5
Other Manufactures Group 2,000 2,091 13.1 4,034 4,330 ‐3.0
Chemical and Pharma 707 753 4.6 1,425 1,485 ‐3.5
Leather Items2

Jun
May
Jul

Aug

Mar

Apr
Sep

Jan

Feb
Oct

Nov

Dec
381 426 2.5 801 857
Cement 130 94 0.8 204 232
Export Receipts (Billion US$)
Engineering Goods 134 137 0.9 261 314
Export Receipts YoY (RHS)
Jewellery 4 6 0.0 15 13 3.5 50.0

Food Group 3,365 2,255 22.0 4,742 5,424 3.0 40.0


30.0
Rice 1,537 1,006 10.1 2,111 2,771 2.5
20.0
All Others 1,710 845 11.2 2,471 4,297 2.0 10.0

Imports 25,241 29,589 100.0 51,834 71,543 1.5 0.0


‐10.0
Petroleum Group 7,354 10,066 29.1 17,539 18,743 1.0
‐20.0
0.5
Petroleum Products 3,078 5,318 12.2 8,975 10,296 ‐30.0
0.0 ‐40.0
Petroleum Crude 2,499 2,728 9.9 4,588 4,602

Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22

Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23

Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jun‐22

Jun‐23
Machinery Group 3,120 2,691 12.4 4,432 9,644
Telecom 840 407 3.3 734 2,252
Electrical Machinery 933 646 3.7 1,039 1,818
Import Payments (Billion US$)
Power Machinery 185 220 0.7 357 795 Import Payments YoY (RHS)
Agriculture & Other Chemicals Group 4,523 4,714 17.9 8,263 10,675 8.0 60.0

Plastic Materials 1,257 1,298 5.0 2,197 3,251 7.0 40.0


6.0
Fertilizer Manufactured 290 373 1.1 619 717 20.0
5.0
Food Group 3,483 4,333 13.8 7,966 7,932 0.0
4.0
Palm Oil 1,326 1,866 5.3 3,363 3,151 3.0
‐20.0

Tea 373 304 1.5 495 561 2.0


‐40.0

Metal Group 2,253 2,137 8.9 3,449 5,897 1.0 ‐60.0

Iron Steel (IS) and IS Scrap 1,918 1,685 7.6 2,748 4,961 0.0 ‐80.0
Dec‐21
Jan‐22

Mar‐22

Jul‐22

Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23

Mar‐23

Jul‐23

Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Feb‐22

Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22

Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23

Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
All Others 4,509 5,648 17.9 10,186 18,652
Trade Balance ‐9,952 ‐15,366 ‐23,955 ‐39,050
1. Share (in percent) is calculated as a ratio of flow of a group (item) to flow of total exports/imports during reporting period.
2. Includes tanned and manufactured leather.

Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (Million US$)


Jul‐Dec YoY
Jul‐Dec FY23 FY22
FY24 FY23
FY24
3
Net inflows : Of which 863 640 35 1,549 1,936 Net Foreign Direct Investment (Million US$)
Selected Countries FY23 FY24
USA 61 56 10 174 314 1000.0
UAE 17 54 ‐70 100 122 800.0
UK 122 121 0 240 61
600.0
China 293 333 ‐12 609 596
Selected Sectors 400.0

Communication ‐81 ‐137 41 ‐185 124 200.0


Financial businesses 91 127 ‐28 258 416
0.0
Oil and gas exploration 130 71 84 138 195
Power 434 439 ‐1 818 761 ‐200.0

Trade 23 45 ‐50 69 80 ‐400.0


Mar

Jun
May
Jul

Aug

Apr
Sep

Jan

Feb
Oct

Nov

Dec

Memorandum Item:
Net overall FDI 4 ‐833 329 ‐590 ‐1,702

3. Net Inflows equal to direct investment made by foreigners in Pakistan less disinvestment during the period.
4. Net FDI equals direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad. Negative number represents inflow in the economy and vice versa.
Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP.

External Sector 9
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Global Economy
Policy Rates in Major Economies Policy Rates
USA UK Euro zone China India
Current Previous policy Change 7
Major economies
rate (bps) 6
Policy rate w.e.f
5
4

percent
USA 5.50 26‐Jul‐2023 5.25 25
3
UK 5.25 2‐Aug‐2023 5.00 25 2
1
Euro zone 4.50 14‐Sep‐2023 4.25 25 0

Jul‐22

Jul‐23
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22

Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23

Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
#
Japan ‐0.10 29‐Jan‐2016 0.10 ‐20
Source: Central banks' websites

Canada 5.00 13‐Jul‐2023 4.75 25 GDP Growth Rate


USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka
Australia 4.35 7‐Nov‐2023 4.10 25 30
20
China* 3.45 21‐Aug‐2023 3.55 ‐10 10

percent
0
India 6.50 8‐Feb‐2023 6.25 25
‐10
‐20
Malaysia 3.00 3‐May‐2023 2.75 25
‐30

Q1‐20

Q2‐20

Q3‐20

Q4‐20

Q1‐21

Q2‐21

Q3‐21

Q4‐21

Q1‐22

Q2‐22

Q3‐22

Q4‐22

Q1‐23

Q2‐23

Q3‐23

Q4‐23
Thailand 2.50 27‐Sep‐2023 2.25 25
Source: Central banks' websites
* Loan Prime Rate: The benchmark interest rate in China. Source: People's Bank of China/Bloomberg/Trading Economics.
#
Bank of Japan previous policy rate was in a range of (0 to 0.1) instead of a single number. Hence, an upper limit is used for previous policy rate which is 0.1.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Current account Reserves4
Inflation (YoY)1 GDP growth2 Fiscal balance
balance (Billion US$)
Dec‐23 Q4‐2023
as a percent of GDP3 Dec‐23
USA 3.4 3.1 ‐2.8 ‐6.3 37.3
UK 3.9 0.3 ‐2.9 ‐3.9 108.8
Euro zone 2.9 0.0 2.4 ‐3.3 300.7
Japan 2.8 1.5 3.1 ‐5.1 1,170.4
Australia 5.4 2.1 0.3 0.3 40.9
China ‐0.3 5.2 2.3 ‐3.8 3,171.8
India 5.7 7.6 ‐0.5 ‐5.9 533.4
Sri Lanka 4.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.5
South Korea 3.2 2.2 2.1 ‐2.7 392.7
Malaysia 1.5 3.4 1.8 ‐5.1 103.7
Indonesia 2.6 4.9 0.8 ‐2.5 124.4
Thailand ‐0.8 1.5 0.8 ‐2.7 201.6
1. Inflation rates pertain to December 2023 except Australia which pertains to September 2023; 2. Annual GDP growth, measured as a percentage change over the same quarter of previous year and pertains to Q4‐
2023 except UK, Euro Zone, Japan, Australia, India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Thailand which pertains to Q3‐2023; 3. The Economist, Economic and Financial indicators, pertain to January 27, 2024; 4 IMF (IFS)
Reserve position data pertains to December 2023 except China, India, Sri Lanka, South Korea, and Indonesia pertains to November 2023.

World Economic Outlook ‐ Real GDP Growth


2023 Projections
CPI Inflation (YoY)
2022
USA UK Euro zone China India
IMF (Estimate) IMF World Bank OECD
12

World output 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.9 10


Advanced 2.6 1.5 1.5 ‐ 8
percent

US 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 6


Euro area 3.3 0.7 0.4 0.6
4
Japan 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.7
UK 4.1 0.5 ‐ 0.5 2

Emerging & Developing 4.1 4.0 4.0 ‐ 0


Russia ‐2.1 2.2 2.6 ‐ ‐2
Jul‐22

Jul‐23
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22

Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23

Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
China 3.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 Dec‐23
India 7.2 6.3 6.3 6.3
Source: Central bank websites and Bloomberg
ASEAN‐5 5.5 4.2 ‐ ‐
Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and www.tradingeconomics.com.
Dash indicates, data is not available.

External Sector 10
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

World Commodity Price Indices (2010=100)*


Percent change since Trends in Commodity Price Indices (2010=100)
Dec‐23 Energy Metal Food
Nov‐23 End Jun‐23 200
180
Energy index 99.5 ‐6.3 4.5
160
140
Non‐Energy Index 107.2 ‐1.6 ‐0.4 120
100
Food Index 120.0 ‐3.0 ‐2.1 80
60
Metal price index 104.3 0.5 ‐2.2 40
20

Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Oct‐22
Nov‐22

Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐21
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23

Sep‐23

Dec‐23
Saudi Arabian Light Crude oil price ($/bbl)** 81.7 0.6 4.3
Source: World Bank
Cotton spot (US cents/ pound)** 81.9 2.6 3.4
Trends in Daily Saudi Arabian Oil Prices
150
Palm oil ($/m. ton) 813.5 ‐2.0 ‐0.4
130
Soyabean Oil ($/m. ton) 1,062.5 ‐5.0 5.5 110

US$ per barrel


90
Gold spot ($/Oz)** 2,032.2 ‐0.1 5.9 70
50
Sugar ($/kg) 0.9 ‐10.5 ‐3.0
30
Sources: Bloomberg for Crude oil price (Saudi Arabian Light), Cotton Spot and Gold spot. World Bank for all 10
other items.

Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
* Data for world commodity prices/indices pertains to December 2023.
** Average during the month i.e. January 01‐25, 2024. The percentage changes have been calculated by Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25, 2024)
taking average prices of current month with the previous month and with the end June prices.
Trends in Daily International Gold Prices
2200
Capital Market Indices1
2000
Percent change since***

US$ per ounce


Jan‐241
1800
Dec‐23 Jun‐23
1600
US (DJIA) 37,646.0 1.9 11.0
1400
DJ EURO STOXX 4,474.5 ‐0.8 3.5

Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22
Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
UK (FTSE 100) 7,588.9 ‐0.2 0.4 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25, 2024)

Japan (Nikkei 225) 35,296.9 6.6 7.8 Daily International Cotton Prices
160
China (SSEA) 3,016.5 ‐2.6 ‐10.5
140
France (CAC 40) 7,421.8 ‐1.2 2.3
US cents per pound

120

Germany (DAX) 16,651.2 ‐0.2 3.8 100

80
India (BSE) 71,708.8 1.8 13.6
60
World dev'd (MSCI) 3,157.8 1.7 8.4
40
Mar‐22

May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Oct‐22
Nov‐22

Mar‐23

May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐22
Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Sep‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Emerging Markets (MSCI) 989.0 ‐0.2 ‐1.0
Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25, 2024)
World all (MSCI) 722.1 1.5 7.4
1
Updated till January 25, 2024
Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond2
10‐Year (2024) 30‐Year (2036)
2 140
10 Yr Bond = $1000 M (Coupon rate = 8.25%): Issued ‐ April 8, 2014: Maturity ‐ April 15, 2024
120
30 Yr Bond = $300 M (Coupon rate = 7.875%): Issued ‐ Mar 24, 2006: Maturity ‐Mar 23, 2036
100
*** These are the monthly averages.
80
percent

60
Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank and OECD.
40
20
0
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Oct‐22
Nov‐22

Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Jan‐22
Feb‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23

Sep‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐24

Source: Bloomberg (Updated till January 25,2024)

External Sector 11
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Revenues, Expenditures and Fiscal Balances


Revenues (billion Rs)
FY24 Jul‐Sep
FY23 Revenues (billion Rupees)
BE1,2 FY24 FY23 Non‐tax Tax Total revenue as % of GDP (RHS)
Total revenues 13,377 2,686 2,017 9,634 16,000 14

Tax revenue 10,188 2,217 1,782 7,819 14,000


12,000 23.8% 13
Growth (YoY) % 30.3 24.4 16.3 15.7
10,000
of which: FBR revenues 9,415 2,042 1,634 7,169 18.8%
8,000 12
Non‐tax revenues 3,188 469 235 1,815 15.9%
6,000 24.3% 23.6%
Growth (YoY) % 75.7 99.6 ‐14.8 41.8 8.7% 76.2%
4,000 81.2% 11
84.1%
2,000 91.3% 75.7% 76.4%
Expenditures (billion Rs)
0 10
FY24 Jul‐Sep

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
BE
FY23
BE1,2 FY24 FY23
Total expenditures 20,281 3,649 2,836 16,155
Current 17,591 3,173 2,538 14,583 Expenditures (billion Rupees)
Growth (YoY) % 20.6 25.0 29.0 26.6 Development Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS)

of which: Interest payments 7,303 1,380 954 5,831 25,000 21


Defence 1,804 343 313 1,586
20,000 20
Development Expenditure & net lending 2,690 282 220 1,953 13.3%

Growth (YoY) % 37.7 28.4 ‐16.9 17.8 15,000 11.8% 19


Unidentified Expenditure3 0 194 78 ‐381 12.6%
10,000 12.7% 18
12.4% 86.7%
Overall Balance (billion Rs) 14.6% 87.9%
5,000 87.5% 17
FY24 87.5% 87.2%
Jul‐Sep 85.4%
FY23
BE1,2 FY24 FY23 0 16
4

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Fiscal balance ‐6,904 ‐963 ‐819 ‐6,521

BE
5
Revenue balance ‐4,214 ‐487 ‐521 ‐4,950
6
Primary balance 398 417 135 ‐690
Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees)
Primary Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS)
Financing of Fiscal Deficit (billion Rs) 1,000 0
FY24 Jul‐Sep 0 ‐1
FY23
BE1,2 FY24 FY23 ‐1,000 ‐2

Financing 6,904 963 819 6,521 ‐2,000 ‐3


‐3,000 ‐4
1. External 2,724 425 41 ‐680
7 ‐4,000 ‐5
2. Domestic : of which 4,165 538 778 7,201
‐5,000 ‐6
Non‐bank 1,305 ‐538 488 3,673 ‐6,000 ‐7
Banking system: of which 2,860 1,076 290 3,529 ‐7,000 ‐8

15 0 0 0 ‐8,000 ‐9
Privatization proceeds
FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
B.E
FBR Tax Collection8 (billion Rs)
9
Direct Sales Customs FED Total taxes Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit
Privatization proceeds Domestic banking system
Q1 481 624 221 71 1,398 Domestic non‐bank External
Q2 538 650 259 75 1,522 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
0.0%
Q3 559 592 234 79 1,464 80% 41.4%
57.5% 54.9% 59.0% 54.1%
Q4 702 666 295 97 1,759 65.7%
60%
FY22 2,280 2,532 1,009 321 6,143 18.9%
40% 5.8%
Q1 683 642 230 79 1,634 16.0% 18.6%
20% 22.2% 39.3% 56.3% 39.5%
Q2 843 630 237 85 1,795 26.5% 22.4%
12.1%
Q3 783 629 234 80 1,727 0%
‐10.4%
Q4 963 691 234 125 2,013 ‐20%
FY24 BE
FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY23 3,272 2,592 935 370 7,169


Q1 935 727 252 128 2,042
FY24 935 727 252 128 2,042
1
Budget Estimates; 2 Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP Staff Working; 3 In Fiscal Accounts, these expenditures are named as 'Statistical Discrepancy'; 4 Fiscal balance = total revenue ‐
total expenditure; 5 Revenue balance = total revenue ‐ current expenditure; 6 Primary balance = total revenue ‐ total expenditure + interest payment; 7 It includes the amount of
Privatization Proceeds; 8 as reported in fiscal accounts; 9 Federal excise duty.

Fiscal Accounts and Debt 12


Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Government Domestic Debt


Debt by Owner ‐ end period stocks (billion Rs) Stock of Debt (by Owner)
Scheduled banks SBP NSS Others
Change during FY13
45000
P
Nov‐23 Jun‐23 Jul‐Nov 40000
35000 21% 20%
FY24 FY23 19%
30000 14% 16% 19% 8% 8%

billion Rs
11% 12% 9% 15%
1.Bank 30,041 26,948 3,092 774 25000
14%
12% 11% 10% 16%
15% 19% 18%
20000 21% 20%
Commercial banks 24,012 20,620 3,392 1,081 25% 23%
15000
10000 53% 56%
SBP 6,028 6,328 ‐300 ‐307 50% 53% 53% 52% 54%
5000 50%
2.Non‐bank 10,532 11,478 ‐945 1,126 0

Dec‐21

Jun‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22

Jun‐23

Sep‐23
Mar‐22

Mar‐23
National saving schemes (NSS) 3,216 3,248 ‐32 ‐218
Others* 7,316 8,230 ‐913 1,344 Source: SBP, CDNS

3.Foreign currency instruments1 383 384 ‐1 1 Stock of Debt (by Type)


Total (1+2+3) 40,956 38,810 2,146 1,900 Unfunded Floating Permanent
45000
Debt by Type ‐ end period stocks (billion Rs) 40000
8% 7%
35000
Change during 9%
9%
24% 22%
30000 11% 10% 18%

billion Rs
Nov‐23P Jun‐23 Jul‐Nov 25000 13% 13%
22% 21%
19%
19%
FY24 FY23 20000 21%
15000 69%
1.Permanent debt 29,944 26,021 3,923 2,082 72% 73% 67%
10000 68% 67% 68%
65%
PIBs 24,976 22,009 2,967 1,775 5000
0
Prize bonds 382 383 0 6

Dec‐21

Mar‐22

Jun‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22

Mar‐23

Jun‐23

Sep‐23
Others2 4,586 3,630 956 301
Source: SBP
2. Floating debt 7,624 9,335 ‐1,712 46
Interest Payments by Type of Debt
MTBs 7,543 9,269 ‐1,726 41
Unfunded Floating Permanent
MRTBs‐replenishment3 80 66 14 5 6000
3.Unfunded debt4: of which 2,880 2,927 ‐47 ‐237 5000
11%
Saving schemes 2,786 2,819 ‐32 ‐224 4000
billion Rs 22%
4.Foreign currency instruments 383 384 ‐1 1 3000
17%
5.Naya Pakistan Certificates6 126 143 ‐17 9 2000 16% 15%
21%
21% 21% 29% 67%
Total (1+2+3+4+5) 40,956 38,810 2,146 1,900 25%
1000 56% 63%
5
37% 63% 57%
Government domestic liabilities 582 845 ‐263 ‐106 38% 23%
0
1
It includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs, Special US Dollar Bonds and other domestic FC borrowings. FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
2
Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk 3 Years. Source: SBP
3 4
Includes Outright Sale of MRTBs, if any. Includes funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds.
5
This reflects provincial governments’ borrowings from banks for commodity operations.
6. Naya Pakistan Certificates held by resident only. * This includes Treasury Bills held by other sectors, GP Fund and Other Securities obtained residually.

Debt Servicing7 (billion Rs) Stock of Domestic Debt


(as percent of GDP)
Percent 60
Jul‐Nov
FY23 change FY24 47.3 49.0 47.0 46.7
50 45.8
P 41.9
FY24 FY23 over FY23
40
Permanent8 1,528 832 3,263 83.6
30
Floating 821 304 1,059 170.1
20
Unfunded 178 305 550 ‐41.7
10
Others9 10 1 11 815.3
0
Total 2,537 1,442 4,883 76.0 Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23

Source: SBP, MoF


Indicators of Domestic Debt Sustainability

Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 Debt Servicing (as percent of)
Debt stock as percent of
GDP Total revenue Total expenditure GDP (RHS)
47.3 49.0 47.0 46.6 46.2
60 7
Debt servicing as percent 50 6
of Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 5
40
GDP 4.0 4.8 4.5 4.3 5.8 4
30
Total revenue 36.0 36.7 36.4 35.4 50.7 3
20
2
Tax revenue 39.4 48.5 47.6 42.2 62.5 10 1
Total expenditure 21.1 23.9 24.4 21.4 30.2 0 0
Current expenditure 24.8 27.0 27.6 24.7 33.5 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
7 Source: SBP, MoF
This includes interest payments only. 8 Includes prize bonds. Naya Pakistan Certificate (NPC)
9
. Includes interest payments of Naya Pakistan Certificate (NPC) and Foreign Currency Instruments.
P
: Provisional

Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF).

Fiscal Accounts and Debt 13


Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Pakistan's External Debt and Liabilities


Debt & Liabilities ‐ end period stocks (million US$) Debt Servicing (million US$)

P Change during Jul‐Sep


Items Sep‐23 Jun‐23 Items P FY23
FY24 FY24

1. Public debt (a+b+c) 98,134 94,881 3,253 1. Public debt (a+b+c) 2,312 16,672
a) Government debt 78,510 76,926 1,584 a) Government debt3 1,742 15,086
i) Long term (>1 year) 78,351 76,766 1,585 Principal 1,149 12,438
Paris club 7,703 7,901 ‐198 Interest 594 2,647
Multilateral 37,090 37,363 ‐273 b) To IMF 524 1,362
Other bilateral 19,615 17,572 2,042 Principal 377 966
Euro/Sukuk global bonds 7,800 7,800 0 Interest 147 396
Military debt 0 0 0 c) Foreign exchange liabilities 45 224

Commercial loans/credits 5,554 5,564 ‐9 Principal 0 0


Local currency Securities (PIBs) 3 3 0 Interest 45 224
Saudi fund for development (SFD) 0 0 0 2. PSEs guaranteed debt 134 650
NBP/BOC deposits 25 28 ‐3 Principal 44 440
1
NPC 560 534 26 Interest 90 210
ii) Short term (<1 year) 159 160 ‐1 3. PSEs non‐guaranteed debt3 0 145
Of which: Multilateral 159 160 ‐1 Principal 0 100
b) From IMF 7,847 7,124 723 Interest 0 46
i) Federal government 4,965 5,369 ‐404 4. Scheduled banks' borrowing3 170 15
ii) Central bank 2,882 1,755 1,127 Principal 150 0
c) Foreign exchange liabilities (FEL)2 11,777 10,831 946 Interest 20 15
2. Public sector enterprises(PSEs) 7,917 7,500 417 5. Private guaranteed debt 0 0
a) Guaranteed debt 7,038 6,619 419 6. Private non‐guaranteed debt3 409 1,877
b) Non‐guaranteed debt 879 881 ‐2 Principal 184 1,119
3. Scheduled banks 6,239 6,314 ‐75 Interest 225 758
a) Borrowing 3,633 3,721 ‐88 7. Private non‐guaranteed bonds 0 0
i) Long term (>1 year) 1,300 1,300 0 Principal 0 0
ii) Short term (<1 year) 2,333 2,421 ‐88 Interest 0 0
Total Long term external debt servicing
b)Non‐resident deposits (LCY & FCY) 2,607 2,594 13 (1+2+3+4+5+6+7) 3,025 19,359
4. Private sector 11,836 11,919 ‐83 Principal 1,904 15,062
a) Guaranteed debt 0 0 0 Interest 1,121 4,297
b) Non‐guaranteed debt 11,836 11,919 ‐83 Memorandum Items
Short term debt servicing‐principal4
i) Loans 9,916 10,031 ‐115 (excluding item No.3 below) 114 1,329
ii) Private non‐guaranteed bonds 0 0 0 1. Government debt 101 1,328
iii) Trade credit and others liabilities 1,920 1,887 32 2. PSEs non‐guaranteed debt 0 0
5. Debt liabilities
to direct investors‐intercompany debt 3,965 3,978 ‐14 3. Scheduled banks' borrowing 2,581 18,314
Total external debt (excl. FEL) 116,314 113,761 2,552 Net flows 5 ‐88 ‐219
Total external debt & liabilities (1+2+3+4+5) 128,091 124,593 3,498 4. Private non‐guaranteed debt 13 1

Indicators of External Debt Sustainability


End period debt stock as percent of External debt servicing as percent of

Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

GDP 29.5 39.6 40.0 34.5 40.0 42.4 1.7 3.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 6.6
Reserves 581.3 734.4 598.4 501.2 843.5 1357.0 33.3 64.4 67.2 50.6 94.0 210.8
Exports 384.5 438.4 501.5 477.0 401.1 446.9 22.1 38.5 56.3 48.1 44.7 69.4

Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$) External Debt Servicing (billion US$)*
Debt Foreign exchange liabilities PSEs debt** Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt
140 20

120 16
100
12
80
8
60
40 4
20 0
0 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 *Only Long term debt servicing included.
**PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non‐guaranteed debt.
Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP

1 2 3 4
P: Provisional ; Naya Pakistan Certificates (NPC) are issued by Government of Pakistan for overseas Pakistanis. Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL; Only long term debt servicing included. As
per the guidelines available in IMF's External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2003, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term
5
repayment of principle has been reported as Memorandum Items; Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (‐) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period.

Sources: Economic Affairs Division and Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP.

Fiscal Accounts and Debt 14


Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Overall Debt and Liabilities


Total Debt Stock (billion Rs)
Share in Sep,
P Change
Sep‐23 Jun‐23 Jun‐22 Jun‐21 Jun‐20 2023
during FY24
(percent)
I. Government domestic debt 39,698 38,810 31,085 26,265 23,283 888 50.9
II. Government external debt 22,594 22,031 16,747 12,439 11,825 563 29.0
III. Debt from IMF 2,258 2,040 1,410 1,162 1,291 218 2.9
IV. External liabilities1 3,389 3,102 2,276 1,378 1,663 287 4.3
V. Private sector external debt 5,202 5,222 3,698 2,575 2,628 ‐20 6.7
VI. PSEs external debt 2,278 2,148 1,667 1,065 870 130 2.9
VII. PSEs domestic debt 1,698 1,687 1,393 1,437 1,491 11 2.2
VIII. Commodity operations2 1,309 1,486 1,134 904 813 ‐177 1.7
IX. Intercompany External Debt from Direct Investor abroad 1,141 1,139 838 633 728 1 1.5
5
Total debt & liabilities (I to IX) 77,937 76,068 59,261 47,858 44,592 1,869 100.0
Gross Public Debt (I to III) 64,549 62,881 49,242 39,866 36,399 1,668 82.8
Total Debt of the Government ‐ FRDLA Definition3 59,183 57,779 44,361 35,669 33,235 1,404 75.9
Total external debt & liabilities (II to VI &+ IX) 36,862 35,682 26,635 19,252 19,005 1,179 47.3
Commodity operations & PSEs debt (VI to VIII) 5,286 5,321 4,194 3,405 3,173 ‐35 6.8

Total Debt Servicing (billion Rs)


Share in Share in
Jul‐Sep,
FY23 FY22 FY21 FY20 FY24 FY23
FY24P
(percent) (percent)
Total Debt Servicing(A+B) 2,165 9,820 5,578 4,562 4,452 100.0 100.0
A. Total interest payment on debt and liabilities (I+II) 1,611 6,117 3,477 2,927 2,920 74.4 62.3
I. Interest payment on debt (a+b) 1,563 5,935 3,331 2,832 2,765 72.2 60.4
a. Domestic debt 1,240 4,877 2,848 2,510 2,304 57.3 49.7
b. External debt 323 1,058 483 322 460 14.9 10.8
II. Interest payment on liabilities (a+b) 48 182 146 95 155 2.2 1.9
a. Domestic liabilities 35 127 87 59 105 1.6 1.3
b. External liabilities1 13 55 59 36 51 0.6 0.6
B. Principal repayment of external debt and liabilities4 554 3,702 2,101 1,634 1,532 25.6 37.7
Debt stock (as percent of GDP)6
Jun‐23 Jun‐22 Jun‐21 Jun‐20 Jun‐19
Total debt and liabilities 90.5 88.9 85.7 93.8 91.8
Gross Public Debt 74.8 73.9 71.4 76.6 74.7
Total Debt of the Government ‐ FRDLA Definition 68.7 66.6 63.9 69.9 67.4
Total external debt and liabilities 42.4 40.0 34.5 40.0 39.6
Government domestic debt 46.2 46.6 47.0 49.0 47.3
Commodity Operation and PSEs Debt 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.7 6.3

Debt Servicing (as percent of)


FY23 FY22 FY21 FY20 FY19
GDP 11.7 8.4 8.2 9.4 7.2
Total revenue 101.9 69.4 66.1 71.0 63.9
Tax revenue 125.6 82.6 86.5 93.8 70.0
Total expenditure 60.8 42.0 44.3 46.1 37.5
Current expenditure 67.3 48.4 50.2 52.2 44.1

Debt Stock (billion Rs) Debt Stock (as percent of GDP)


Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt
Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt
Total debt & liabilities Gross public debt
Total debt & liabilities Gross public debt
80000
100
70000 90
60000 80
50000 70
40000 60
50
30000
40
20000
30
10000 20
0 10
Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23 Jun‐18 Jun‐19 Jun‐20 Jun‐21 Jun‐22 Jun‐23

Note: P: Provisional;1 External liabilities include Central bank deposits, SWAPS, Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank; 2 Includes borrowings from banks by provincial governments and PSEs for
commodity operations; 3 As per Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005 (FRDLA) amended in June 2017, "Total Debt of the Government" means the debt of the government (including the Federal Government
and the Provincial Governments) serviced out of the consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) less accumulated deposits of the Federal and Provincial Governments with the banking
system. 4This is excluding short term debt repayment. 5. Less the SBP’s on‐lending to GOP against SDRs allocation (SDR 1.95 billion) equivalent to PKR 474.94 billion.

Source: CDNS, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs Division and SBP

Fiscal Accounts and Debt 15


Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Monetary and Credit Aggregates


Monetary Assets of the Banking System (Billion Rs)
Cumulative flows Monetary Assets (M2) ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
since end‐June FY23 FY24
End June 2023 FY23
stocks Latest week A year ago Flows 4,000

12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23 3,000


2,000
NFA ‐2,687.7 525.6 ‐1,425.2 ‐1,934.5

Billion Rs
1,000
NDA 34,211.0 144.7 1,537.6 5,855.1
0
Net government borrowings: of which 23,723.1 2,574.6 1,188.4 4,100.2 ‐1,000
Net budgetary borrowing 22,254.4 2,767.2 1,198.6 3,747.9 ‐2,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Commodity operations 1,485.9 ‐193.7 ‐8.3 352.3 Weeks
Non‐government borrowings: of which 11,342.6 2.2 702.1 646.8
Private sector 9,167.1 ‐8.0 408.0 208.3
Net Foreign Assets ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
PSEs 1,662.9 55.8 79.2 293.7
FY23 FY24
Credit to NBFIs 512.6 ‐45.5 214.9 144.7 1000

Other items (net) ‐854.7 ‐2,432.2 ‐352.9 1,108.1 500


0
M2 31,523.3 670.2 112.4 3,920.6

Billion Rs
‐500
Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System (Billion Rs)
‐1000
Currency in circulation 9,148.7 ‐491.2 341.3 1,576.3
‐1500
Total deposits with banks 22,262.4 1,158.3 ‐222.8 2,327.6 ‐2000
Demand deposits with banks 20,002.3 990.9 ‐555.5 2,243.1 ‐2500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Time deposits with banks 732.9 200.3 332.7 ‐230.0
Weeks
RFCDs with banks 1,527.3 ‐32.9 ‐0.1 314.5
M2 31,523.3 670.2 112.4 3,920.6
Monetary Assets of the Banking System (percent growth) Net Domestic Assets(NDA) ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June

Since end June FY23 FY24


YoY FY23
6000
(12‐Jan‐2024) Flows
12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23 4500

NFA 0.7 19.6 ‐189.2 ‐256.8 3000


Billion Rs

1500
NDA 14.9 0.4 5.4 20.6
0
Government borrowings 26.4 10.9 6.1 20.9
‐1500
Budgetary borrowing 27.0 12.4 6.5 20.3 ‐3000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Commodity operations 14.8 ‐13.0 ‐0.7 31.1
Weeks
Non‐government sector borrowings ‐0.5 0.0 6.6 6.0
Private sector ‐2.2 ‐0.1 4.6 2.3
PSEs 18.7 3.4 5.8 21.5
Private Sector Credit ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
Other items (Net) ‐41.9 ‐284.6 ‐18.0 56.5 FY23 FY24
700
M2 16.2 2.1 0.4 14.2 600
500
Memorandum Items 400
300
Billion Rs

Latest week A year ago FY23 FY22 200


Flows Flows 100
12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23 0
‐100
Money multiplier 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 ‐200
‐300
Currency to deposit ratio (percent) 37.0 40.1 41.1 38.0 ‐400
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
M2 to GDP ratio (percent) 37.5 41.4
Weeks
Private sector credit to GDP ratio (percent) 10.9 13.4
Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP

Monetary Sector 16
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Monetary Assets of SBP (Billion Rs)


Cumulative flows Reserve Money ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
since end‐June FY23 FY24
End June 2023 FY23 2500
stocks Latest week A year ago Flows 2000
1500
12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23

Billion Rs
1000
500
NFA ‐2,013.4 568.2 ‐1,218.2 ‐1,453.5 0
NDA: of which 13,433.2 ‐858.1 1,716.2 3,546.8 ‐500
‐1000
Budgetary borrowing 5,250.1 ‐1,045.5 ‐110.2 108.7 ‐1500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Other items (net) 6,596.3 228.3 1,900.5 3,498.2 Weeks
Net impact of OMOs/discounting 8,244.7 1,020.8 2,804.6 4,293.9
Reserve money 11,419.8 ‐289.9 498.0 2,093.2 Banking System Deposits ‐Cumulative Flows since end June
Monetary Liabilities of SBP (billion Rs) FY23 FY24
2500
Cumulative flows
2000
since end‐June 1500

billion Rs
End June 2023 FY23
Latest week A year ago 1000
stocks Flows 500
12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23 0
‐500
‐1000
Currency in circulation 9,148.7 ‐491.2 341.3 1,576.3 ‐1500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Cash in tills 524.9 ‐77.2 ‐49.6 95.3
Weeks
Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) 1,634.1 275.4 212.4 404.9
Currency in Circulation ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
Other deposits with SBP 112.1 3.1 ‐6.1 16.8
FY23 FY24
YoY 1500
(percent growth)
(12‐Jan‐2024)
1000

Billion Rs
NFA of the SBP 18.7 28.2 ‐217.6 ‐259.6 500

NDA of the SBP: of which 8.4 ‐6.4 17.4 35.9 0


‐500
Budgetary borrowing ‐16.4 ‐19.9 ‐2.1 2.1
‐1000
Other items (net) 36.5 3.5 61.3 112.9
‐1500
Reserve money 13.3 ‐2.5 5.3 22.4 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Weeks

Details on Government Borrowing for Budgetary Support (Billion Rs)


Cumulative flows Budgetary Borrowings ‐ Cumulative Flows since end June
since end‐June FY23 FY24
End June 2023 FY23 4500
stocks Latest week A year ago Flows 4000
3500
12‐Jan‐24 13‐Jan‐23 3000
Billion Rs

2500
2000
Budgetary borrowing 22,254.4 2,767.2 1,198.6 3,747.9 1500
1000
Federal government 24,269.3 2,948.6 1,298.8 3,912.5 500
0
From SBP 5,922.6 ‐954.6 21.8 195.9 ‐500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Weeks
SBP's holdings of MRTBs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cumulative Budgetary Borrowings during FY24
From Scheduled Banks 18,346.7 3,903.1 1,277.0 3,716.6 SBs SBP Total budgetary borrowing
5000
Provincial governments ‐2,014.9 ‐181.4 ‐100.2 ‐164.6
4000
From SBP ‐672.5 ‐91.0 ‐132.0 ‐87.2 3000
Billion Rs

2000
From Scheduled Banks ‐1,342.4 ‐90.4 31.8 ‐77.3
1000
Memorandum Items 0
‐1000
Budgetary borrowing on cash basis 21,863.1 2,688.5 1,104.5 3,532.3
‐2000
SBP 4,940.3 ‐1,063.6 ‐189.2 ‐96.9 ‐3000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728
Scheduled Banks 16,922.8 3,752.1 1,293.7 3,629.2 Weeks

Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP

Monetary Sector 17
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Private Sector Credit*


Credit to Private Sector
Loans to Private Sector Businesses (Monthly Flows)
End June 2023 Cumulative flows (Billion Rs) FY23
FY22 FY23 FY24
stocks Flows 600
Dec FY24 Dec FY23
500
Total credit to private sector 1 9,167.1 385.0 584.5 208.3 400
300

Billion Rs
1. Loans to private sector businesses 6,959.0 442.6 574.5 31.1 200
100
By type 0
‐100
Working capital: of which 4,112.5 370.4 370.1 ‐146.1 ‐200
‐300
Export finance 839.3 71.3 ‐12.2 ‐37.4

Mar

Apr

May
Aug

Dec
Sep

Jan

Feb

Jun
Oct
Jul

Nov
Import finance 313.7 65.0 ‐22.5 ‐126.2
Fixed investment 2,608.2 75.0 205.4 174.8 Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows)
FY22 FY23 FY24
Construction Financing 238.3 ‐2.7 ‐1.0 2.3 30
By Sectors: of which 25
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 344.3 73.0 23.5 17.9 20
15

Billion Rs
Manufacturing: of which 4,540.8 307.3 503.1 89.4 10
5
Textiles 1,573.9 106.8 188.2 95.1 0
Food Products & Beverages 1,078.6 90.0 24.4 8.7 ‐5
‐10
Chemicals & Products 331.2 ‐5.0 82.4 ‐11.6 ‐15

Sep

Feb
Oct

Nov

Mar

Apr

May
Aug

Dec

Jan

Jun
Jul
Basic metals 202.1 36.0 6.2 ‐40.3
Non‐metallic Mineral Products 300.9 ‐14.4 46.8 32.5 Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows)
FY22 FY23 FY24
15
Manufacture of electrical equipment 116.2 26.9 14.7 ‐41.3
10
Wearing Apparel 216.9 7.1 28.8 10.4 5

Billion Rs
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 571.6 ‐54.5 2.8 ‐48.6 0
‐5
Construction 190.2 10.0 11.0 1.9
‐10
Wholesale, Retail Trade and Repair of Vehicles 451.8 84.2 ‐6.5 ‐79.8 ‐15
Transportation and storage 118.8 7.2 ‐5.9 ‐8.4 ‐20

Mar

Apr

May
Aug

Dec
Sep

Jan

Feb
Oct
Jul

Nov

Jun
Information and communication 340.4 14.4 36.8 62.5
Services 308.0 ‐7.2 14.3 ‐10.3 Credit to NBFIs (Monthly Flows)

2. Personal: of which 1,126.5 ‐6.0 19.3 3.1 FY22 FY23 FY24


400
Consumer Financing 859.7 ‐41.5 ‐0.1 ‐40.4
300
3. Investment in Securities and Shares 181.2 24.3 ‐20.7 ‐17.4
200
Billion Rs

4. Others2: of which 900.5 ‐75.9 11.4 191.5


100
Non‐Bank Finance Companies 426.0 ‐25.5 329.0 143.6
0
*Classification of Private Sector ‐ Business based on International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), Rev. 4 of United Nations adopted ‐100
from June 2019.
1
From Weekly Monetary Survey's month end position. ‐200
Sep

Feb
Oct

Nov

Mar

Apr

May
Aug

Dec

Jan

Jun
Jul

2
This also includes credit to Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories.

Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP

Monetary Sector 18
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Key Indicators of Monetary Sector


As percent of GDP YoY growth (RHS)

Money Supply (M2) Reserve Money


50.0 20.0 18.0 25.0

45.0 18.0 15.0 20.0


16.0
40.0 12.0
1
15.0
0.9 14.0
35.0
0.8
9.0
0.7
12.0 10.0
30.0
0.6 6.0
10.0
0.5
3.0 5.0
25.0
0.4
8.0
0.3
20.0
0.2 6.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
as % of 0GDP 40.6 44.0 43.5 41.4 37.5 as % of GDP 15.0 16.2 15.5 14.0 13.6
YoY Growth 11.3 17.5 16.2 13.6 14.2 YoY Growth 19.9 16.8 12.8 7.7 22.4

Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System Private Sector Credit
31.0 24.0 16.0 20.0
30.5 21.0 14.0
30.0 16.0
18.0 12.0
29.5 10.0
15.0 12.0
29.0
12.0 8.0
28.5 8.0
9.0 6.0
28.0
6.0 4.0
27.5 4.0
27.0 3.0 2.0

26.5 0.0 0.0 0.0


FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
as % of GDP 28.2 30.6 29.1 29.4 28.2 as % of GDP 15.2 14.4 13.7 13.4 10.9
YoY Growth 21.0 17.9 11.8 20.6 20.9 YoY Growth 11.6 2.9 11.2 17.4 2.3

Currency in Circulation Total Deposits


14.0 30.0 32.0 20.0
18.0
13.0 30.0
25.0 16.0
12.0 14.0
20.0 28.0
11.0 12.0
10.0 15.0 26.0 10.0
8.0
9.0 24.0
10.0 6.0
8.0
4.0
5.0 22.0
7.0 2.0
6.0 0.0 20.0 0.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
as % of GDP 11.3 12.9 12.4 11.4 10.9 as % of GDP 29.3 31.0 31.0 29.9 26.5
YoY Growth 12.8 24.1 12.5 9.6 20.8 YoY Growth 10.6 14.9 17.6 15.1 11.7

Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP

Monetary Sector 19
3.0
7.0
11.0
15.0
19.0
23.0

50.0

‐100.0
‐50.0
0.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0

8.0
Dec‐20 Dec‐20 Dec‐20 Dec‐20
Feb‐21 Feb‐21 Feb‐21 Feb‐21

Monetary Sector
NDA to NFA Ratio
11
13
15
17
Money Supply 19
Apr‐21 Apr‐21 Apr‐21 Apr‐21
Jun‐21 1

Currency in Circulation
Jun‐21 Jun‐21 Jun‐21
Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21 3
Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21 5

Month‐end stocks data has been used.


Dec‐21 Dec‐21 Dec‐21 Dec‐21
7
Feb‐22 Feb‐22 Feb‐22 Feb‐22

Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP


Apr‐22 9
Apr‐22 Apr‐22 Apr‐22
Jun‐22 Jun‐22 Jun‐22 Jun‐22 11

Aug‐22 Aug‐22 Aug‐22 Aug‐22 13


Oct‐22 Oct‐22

Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System


Oct‐22 Oct‐22
15
Dec‐22 Dec‐22 Dec‐22 Dec‐22
17
Feb‐23 Feb‐23 Feb‐23 Feb‐23
Apr‐23 Apr‐23 Apr‐23 Apr‐23 19

Jun‐23 Jun‐23 Jun‐23 Jun‐23 21


Aug‐23 Aug‐23 Aug‐23 Aug‐23
23
Oct‐23 Oct‐23 Oct‐23 Oct‐23
25
Dec‐23 Dec‐23 Dec‐23 Dec‐23
YoY Growth

0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0

10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0

4.0
6.0
8.0
‐5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0

0.0
5.0

27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
39.0
41.0
43.0
45.0
47.0
Dec‐20 Dec‐20 Dec‐20
Dec‐20
12 MMA

Total Deposits
Feb‐21 Feb‐21
Reserve Money

Feb‐21 Feb‐21
Apr‐21 Apr‐21 Apr‐21
Apr‐21
Trends in Monetary Aggregates

Jun‐21 Jun‐21
Credit to Private Sector

Jun‐21 Jun‐21
Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21 Aug‐21
Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21 Oct‐21
Dec‐21 Dec‐21 Dec‐21 Dec‐21
Monetary Policy Information Compendium

Feb‐22 Feb‐22 Feb‐22 Feb‐22

Currency to deposit ratio (%)


Apr‐22 Apr‐22 Apr‐22 Apr‐22
Jun‐22 Jun‐22 Jun‐22 Jun‐22
Aug‐22 Aug‐22 Aug‐22
Aug‐22
Oct‐22
Oct‐22 Oct‐22 Oct‐22
Dec‐22
Dec‐22 Dec‐22 Dec‐22
Feb‐23
Feb‐23 Feb‐23 Feb‐23
Apr‐23
Trend in Currency to Deposit Ratio and Money Multiplier Apr‐23 Apr‐23 Apr‐23
Jun‐23
Jun‐23 Jun‐23 Jun‐23
Aug‐23
Aug‐23 Aug‐23 Aug‐23
Money multiplier (RHS)

Oct‐23
Dec‐23 Oct‐23 Oct‐23 Oct‐23
Dec‐23 Dec‐23 Dec‐23

2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5

20
January 2024
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Money Market
Policy Instruments (percent)
Current w.e.f Previous w.e.f Change1

SBP Target rate (Policy) 22.00 27‐Jun‐23 21.00 5‐Apr‐23 100 Policy and Overnight Money Market Repo Rates
SBP reverse repo rate SBP repo rate
SBP reverse repo rate 23.00 27‐Jun‐23 22.00 5‐Apr‐23 100 Weekly WA overnight repo rate SBP Target rate (Policy)
24.0
SBP repo rate 21.00 27‐Jun‐23 20.00 5‐Apr‐23 100 23.0
Bi‐weekly average CRR on DL and 22.0
TD < 1 year 6.0 12‐Nov‐21 5.0 1‐Nov‐08 100
21.0
Daily minimum CRR on DL and TD 20.0

percent
< 1 year 4.0 15‐Nov‐21 3.0 12‐Oct‐12 100
19.0
CRR on TL > 1 year 0.0 4‐Aug‐07 3.0 22‐Jul‐06 ‐300 18.0
17.0
SLR on DL and TL < 1 year 19.0 24‐May‐08 18.0 22‐Jul‐06 100
16.0
Islamic banks 14.0 17‐Nov‐16 19.0 3‐Jun‐11 ‐500 15.0

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Aug‐23
SLR on TL > 1 year 0.0 18‐Oct‐08 19.0 24‐May‐08 ‐1900

Islamic banks 0.0 18‐Oct‐08 9.0 24‐May‐08 ‐900


1
Basis points DL: Demand Liabilities; TL: Time Liabilities

Weighted Average O/N Money Market Repo Rate During MP Period (percent) Volatility in Overnight Money Market Repo Rate during MP period
0.050
Period started on 27‐Jun‐23 1‐Aug‐23 15‐Sep‐23 31‐Oct‐23 13‐Dec‐23 0.045
0.040

coefficient of variation
Period ended on 31‐Jul‐23 14‐Sep‐23 30‐Oct‐23 12‐Dec‐23 15‐Jan‐24 0.035
0.030
Policy rate 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 0.025
0.020
WA O/N repo rate2 21.57 21.36 21.53 21.77 21.68 0.015
0.010
Standard deviation 0.52 0.50 0.44 0.32 0.51 0.005
0.000

7‐Apr‐22

4‐Apr‐23

14‐Sep‐23
23‐May‐22
12‐Jul‐22
22‐Aug‐22
10‐Oct‐22
27‐Nov‐22
23‐Jan‐23
2‐Mar‐23

12‐Jun‐23
26‐Jun‐23
31‐Jul‐23

30‐Oct‐23
12‐Dec‐23
15‐Jan‐24
CoV3 0.024 0.023 0.020 0.015 0.024
2
Weekly Weighted Average O/N Repo Rate
3
CoV (Coefficient of Variation) is a ratio and is unit less. *up to Jan 15, 2024

Bi‐weekly Cash Reserves Requirement (CRR)4 (billion Rs) Cash Reserves Requirement
Maintenance period Change since Amount as % of TDL (RHS)
ended as on Last MPS 55.0 6.50
50.0
4‐Jan‐24 7‐Dec‐23 7‐Dec‐23 45.0 6.00
40.0
Cash required 1,394.3 1,349.2 45.1

in percent
35.0
billion Rs

5.50
30.0
Cash maintained 1,424.3 1,359.7 64.6 25.0
20.0 5.00
Excess cash reserves (per day) 30.0 10.5 19.5 15.0
4
Bi‐weekly CRR is the proportion of local currency time and demand liabilities (TDL) that scheduled banks are 10.0 4.50
required to maintain with SBP in the form of cash on average during the reserve maintenance period. 5.0
0.0 4.00
Mar‐22

Jul‐22

Sep‐22

Nov‐22

Mar‐23

Jul‐23

Sep‐23

Nov‐23
Jan‐22

May‐22

Jan‐23

May‐23

Jan‐24
5
As on Thursday preceding the last monetary policy decision.

Overall Reserve Requirement (billion Rs)


Maintenance period Change since
started as on Last MPS Banks' Holding of Excess Liquid Assets
22‐Dec‐23 24‐Nov‐23 24‐Nov‐23 8‐Dec‐23 14000
Required reserves 5,438.3 5,343.7 94.6 76.0 13000

1,394.3 1,349.2 12000


for CRR 45.1 30.7
11000
for SLR 4,044.1 3,994.5 49.5 45.2
billion Rs

10000
Maintained6 18,593.1 18,179.9 413.2 224.3 9000
Cash 2,075.8 1,938.8 137.0 143.0 8000
557.6 544.0 7000
Cash in tills 13.6 28.2
6000
Balance with SBP 1,357.1 1,235.7 121.4 21.4
Mar‐22

Jul‐22

Sep‐22

Nov‐22

Mar‐23

Jul‐23

Sep‐23

Nov‐23
Jan‐22

May‐22

Jan‐23

May‐23

Jan‐24

Balance with NBP 161.1 159.1 2.0 93.4


Securities 16,444.2 16,167.5 276.7 81.6
6
Others7 73.0 73.6 ‐0.6 ‐0.3 Data corresponds to the balances as on that date
7
Excess liquid assets 8 13,154.7 12,836.2 318.5 148.3 Includes Section 13(3) deposits and share capital of MFBs.
8
Source: Banking Supervision Department ‐ 1 (BSD1), SBP Includes excess securities + cash and other assets maintained.
9
As on Friday preceding the last monetary policy decision

Financial Markets 21
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Use of SBP's Standing Facilities

SBP reverse repo SBP repo SBP Repo and Reverse Repo Facility
Repo Reverse repo
Amount Days Amount Days 14000
billion Rs No. billion Rs No. 12000
10000
FY22 2,999.2 66 6,681.6 55 8000

billion Rs
Q2 789.5 16 36.9 10 6000
Q3 631.7 22 940.4 13 4000
Q4 1,017.5 14 5,576.8 27 2000
FY23 9,441.9 102 18,308.5 153 0

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23

Jan‐24
Aug‐23
Q1 1,255.8 20 4,537.5 23
Q2 1,964.4 29 1,864.5 20
Q3 3,150.6 34 5,294.9 51 *up to Jan 15, 2024

Q4 3,071.2 19 6,611.6 59
Outstanding Open Market Operations
FY24 8,786.7 63.0 45,278.6 136.0 12,000 (+) net injections
Q1 3,107.2 24 24,298.7 62 11,000
10,000
Q2 4,616.3 34 14,573.2 64 9,000
Q3* 1,063.3 5 6,406.7 10 8,000

billion Rs
7,000
*up to Jan 15, 2024 6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Outstanding Open Market Operations1 (billion rupees) 2,000
1,000 (‐) net mop‐ups
Average End‐period 0

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐23

Aug‐23

Jan‐24
Outstanding Outstanding
OMOs OMOs
FY20 1,085.1 925.0 *up to Jan 15, 2024

FY22 2,489.8 3,521.2


OMO Mop‐up and Injection Rates
Q2 1,875.0 1,675.1 Mop‐up Injection
Q3 2,641.8 2,803.4 24.5
Q4 3,350.0 3,521.2 22.5
FY23 5,829.2 7,996.4 20.5

percent
Q1 4,839.1 3,912.2 18.5
Q2 4,938.6 4,723.5 16.5
Q3 5,910.3 5,906.6 14.5
Q4 7,628.6 7,996.4 12.5
FY24 8,926.6 9,909.2 10.5

Dec‐22

Jan‐23

Feb‐23

Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23

Jan‐24
Nov‐22

Nov‐23
Q1 8,580.3 7,658.8
Q2 8,409.5 9,844.3
Q3* 9,790.1 9,909.2 *up to Jan 15, 2024

*up to Jan 15, 2024 (‐) amount means net mop‐up


Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP

Open Market Operations for GoP Ijara Sukuk ‐ Outright2


Outright Open Market Operations (billion rupees)
(billion rupees)
Bai‐Muajjal
Net Sale Ready Sales
End‐period Outstanding Purchases
FY15 346.5 186.5 FY16 43.0 21.2
Q1 70.0 70.0 Q3 43.0 21.2
Q2 90.0 90.0 FY17 24.6 ‐
Q3 ‐ ‐ Q4 24.6 ‐
Q4 186.5 186.5 FY18 ‐ ‐
FY16 ‐ ‐ FY19 116.6 101.6
FY17 ‐ ‐ Q3 116.6 101.6
FY18 208.0 208.0 Q4 ‐ ‐
Q2 208.0 208.0 FY20 19.1 19.1
FY19 ‐ ‐ Q3 19.1 19.1
FY20 ‐ ‐ FY21 ‐ ‐
FY21 ‐ ‐ FY22 ‐ ‐
FY22 ‐ ‐ FY23 ‐ ‐
2
FY23 ‐ ‐ As per DMMD Circular No. 17 of 2014 dated October 15, 2014.

Financial Markets 22
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Pak Rupee Revaluation (PKRV) Rates1 (%)


Change (in basis points) Yield Curve
Current since 15‐Jan‐24 12‐Dec‐23
Tenors Last MPS 24.0

15‐Jan‐24 17‐Jan‐23 17‐Jan‐23 12‐Dec‐23 22.0

1‐week 21.54 15.16 638 ‐68 20.0


2‐week 21.19 15.03 616 ‐79 18.0

percent
1‐month 20.71 15.94 477 ‐119
16.0
3‐month 20.36 17.00 336 ‐128
14.0
6‐month 20.53 17.05 348 ‐94
9‐month 20.53 17.08 345 ‐74 12.0
12‐month 20.45 17.07 338 ‐74 10.0

7D

1M
2M
3M
4M
6M
9M
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
15Y
20Y
15D
2‐year 17.73 16.85 88 ‐71
3‐year 16.35 16.25 10 ‐11
5‐year 15.61 15.15 46 ‐34
7‐year 15.18 14.36 82 ‐18
10‐year 14.73 13.93 80 ‐24
20‐year 14.58 14.15 43 ‐20
1 It is secondary market yield‐to‐maturity used by banks to revalue their holding of securities (i.e. mark to market).

Tenor‐wise KIBOR (%)


Change (in basis points) Daily Movement in KIBOR
Current since 3‐M 6‐M 12‐M Policy Rate
Tenors Last MPS 27.0
25.0
15‐Jan‐24 17‐Jan‐23 17‐Jan‐23 12‐Dec‐23
23.0
1‐week 21.93 15.70 623 ‐41 21.0
19.0

percent
2‐week 21.93 15.95 598 ‐40 17.0
1‐month 21.64 16.19 545 ‐66 15.0
13.0
3‐month 20.81 17.05 376 ‐100 11.0
6‐month 20.83 17.10 373 ‐81 9.0
7.0
9‐month 21.03 17.37 366 ‐67

Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23

Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Aug‐23
12‐month 21.01 17.38 363 ‐61
*up to Jan 15, 2024

KIBOR and PKRV Spread (basis points) KIBOR and PKRV Spread
Spread (RHS) 6‐M KIBOR 6‐M PKRV
Change since
Current 27.0 130
Tenors Last MPS 25.0 110
15‐Jan‐24 17‐Jan‐23 17‐Jan‐23 12‐Dec‐23 23.0 90
21.0
70
1‐week 39 54 ‐15 27
percent

19.0

bps
50
2‐week 74 92 ‐18 39 17.0
30
1‐month 93 25 68 53 15.0
13.0 10
3‐month 45 5 40 28 ‐10
11.0
6‐month 30 5 25 13 9.0 ‐30
Nov‐22

Apr‐23

Nov‐23
Oct‐22

Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Feb‐23
Mar‐23

May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23
Sep‐23
Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Jan‐24
9‐month 50 29 21 7
12‐month 56 31 25 13
*up to Jan 15, 2024
Sources: SBP and Financial Market Association of Pakistan

Financial Markets 23
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Weighted average Lending and Deposit Rates (percent per annum)


Incremental1 Outstanding
Months Spread
Banks' WALR and WADR (Incremental)
WALR1 WADR1 (bps) WALR WADR Spread (bps)
Spread (RHS) Lending Deposit
Dec‐22 16.42 11.57 485 14.26 8.36 590
24.0 12.0
Jan‐23 17.09 7.48 961 14.59 7.94 666 22.0
Feb‐23 17.84 9.86 798 15.04 8.58 647 20.0 10.0
18.0
Mar‐23 17.98 8.09 989 15.82 8.63 719

percentage points
16.0 8.0
Apr‐23 20.15 10.95 920 17.19 9.60 759 14.0

percent
May‐23 20.17 11.13 904 17.32 10.08 723 12.0 6.0
10.0
Jun‐23 20.32 10.43 989 17.70 10.39 731 8.0 4.0
Jul‐23 21.46 12.76 871 18.00 11.23 677 6.0
4.0 2.0
Aug‐23 21.07 10.85 1,022 18.52 11.21 731 2.0
Sep‐23 20.17 11.20 897 18.81 11.29 752 0.0 0.0

Apr‐22

Apr‐23
Dec‐21

Feb‐22

Jun‐22

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Jun‐23

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Oct‐23 19.87 10.82 906 18.94 11.52 741
Nov‐23 21.11 10.75 1,036 18.84 11.55 729
Dec‐23 21.00 10.87 1,013 18.88 11.61 727

Real (based on 12‐month Real (based on YoY


Months MA inflation)2 inflation)3
WALR WADR WALR WADR
Dec‐22 ‐3.46 ‐8.31 ‐8.05 ‐12.90 Real Lending and Deposit Rates (Incremental)
Jan‐23 ‐4.01 ‐13.62 ‐10.51 ‐20.12 WALR WADR
0
Feb‐23 ‐4.86 ‐12.84 ‐13.66 ‐21.64
‐5
Mar‐23 ‐6.62 ‐16.51 ‐17.42 ‐27.31
Apr‐23 ‐6.45 ‐15.65 ‐16.25 ‐25.45 ‐10

‐15

percent
May‐23 ‐8.43 ‐17.47 ‐17.83 ‐26.87
Jun‐23 ‐8.88 ‐18.77 ‐9.08 ‐18.97 ‐20

Jul‐23 ‐7.94 ‐16.64 ‐6.84 ‐15.54 ‐25


Aug‐23 ‐8.33 ‐18.55 ‐6.33 ‐16.55 ‐30

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23
Dec‐21

Jun‐22

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Jun‐23

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Sep‐23 ‐9.83 ‐18.80 ‐11.23 ‐20.20
Oct‐23 ‐10.13 ‐19.18 ‐6.93 ‐15.98
* Using YoY National CPI Inflation
Nov‐23 ‐9.29 ‐19.65 ‐8.09 ‐18.45
2
Dec‐23 ‐9.80 ‐19.93 ‐8.70 ‐18.83 Nominal rate less National CPI inflation (12‐month moving average).
Sources: Core Statistics Department, SBP & Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 3
Nominal rate less National CPI inflation (year on year with base 2015‐16).

Financial Markets 24
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Real Interest Rates (Base Year: 2015‐16)


Using YoY CPI Urban Inflation Using 12‐month moving average CPI Urban inflation
SBP Policy Rate SBP Policy Rate
CPI Inflation Core (20% Trim) CPI Inflation Core (20% Trim)
6.0
6.0
3.0
4.0
0.0
2.0
‐3.0

percent

percent
0.0
‐6.0
‐2.0
‐9.0 ‐4.0
‐12.0 ‐6.0

‐15.0 ‐8.0
Dec‐21

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23

Aug‐22

Aug‐23
Dec‐21

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
6‐M KIBOR 6‐M KIBOR
6.0 6.0

3.0 4.0

2.0
0.0
0.0
percent

‐3.0

percent
‐2.0
‐6.0
‐4.0
‐9.0
‐6.0
‐12.0 ‐8.0

‐15.0 ‐10.0

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Dec‐21

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23

Dec‐23
Aug‐22

Aug‐23
Dec‐21

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Weighted Average Lending Rates1 Weighted Average Lending Rates1
(Incremental) (Incremental)
6.0 6.0

3.0 4.0

0.0 2.0

‐3.0 0.0
percent

percent
‐6.0 ‐2.0

‐9.0 ‐4.0

‐12.0 ‐6.0

‐15.0 ‐8.0

‐18.0 ‐10.0
Dec‐21

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Dec‐21

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23
Jun‐22

Jun‐23

Weighted Average Deposit Rates1 Weighted Average Deposit Rates1


(Incremental) (Incremental)
0.0 4.0

‐3.0 2.0

‐6.0 0.0
‐2.0
‐9.0
percent

percent

‐4.0
‐12.0
‐6.0
‐15.0
‐8.0
‐18.0 ‐10.0
‐21.0 ‐12.0
Dec‐21

Apr‐22

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Apr‐23

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
Feb‐22

Jun‐22

Feb‐23

Jun‐23

Dec‐21

Feb‐22

Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Aug‐22

Oct‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23

Aug‐23

Oct‐23

Dec‐23
1
Weighted average lending and deposit rates excluding transactions in the interbank and on zero markup.
Sources: PBS and Core Statistics Department, SBP

Financial Markets 25
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

T‐bill Auction (billion Rs (Realized value); rates in percent)


FY/Q/ TOTAL 3‐Month 6‐Month 12‐Month Non‐
Settlement competitive
1
date Target Maturity Offered Accepted Offered Accepted1 Cut‐off
2
Offered Accepted1 Cut‐off
2
Offered Accepted1 Cut‐off
2
bids3
FY22 19,550.0 18,409.3 31,573.0 16,225.2 15,840.3 10,329.7 15.2 11,013.5 4,660.9 15.0 4,719.2 1,234.6 15.5 1,704.2
Q2 5,950.0 5,703.3 7,488.8 3,764.8 4,302.8 2,618.7 10.6 1,983.1 913.0 11.5 1,202.9 233.1 11.5 462.2
Q3 4,400.0 4,528.0 7,476.6 3,581.4 3,358.7 2,188.6 12.0 2,676.8 896.9 12.5 1,441.1 495.9 12.7 400.7
Q4 4,500.0 4,004.0 7,580.1 5,067.9 4,961.0 3,999.7 15.2 1,329.9 563.5 15.0 1,289.3 504.6 15.5 350.2
FY23 24,475.0 23,801.7 39,219.4 23,400.8 29,350.0 21,803.9 22.0 4,531.0 388.4 21.9 5,338.5 1,208.5 22.0 1,748.2
Q1 4,950.0 5,173.0 9,157.5 4,430.8 6,582.2 3,889.9 16.0 1,094.3 198.7 16.0 1,481.0 342.2 16.0 360.7
Q2 5,850.0 5,798.7 9,047.3 4,534.8 6,319.0 4,030.0 17.0 1,213.2 125.0 16.8 1,515.1 379.8 16.9 450.5
Q3 5,400.0 5,104.0 7,663.6 4,672.9 5,880.4 4,506.6 22.0 882.2 31.2 22.0 901.0 135.2 21.5 336.2
Q4 8,275.0 7,726.0 13,351.1 9,762.1 10,568.4 9,377.3 22.0 1,341.2 33.5 21.9 1,441.5 351.3 22.0 600.8
FY24 16,435.0 17,832.3 37,466.3 14,449.2 19,288.9 8,542.7 21.4 3,433.6 225.7 21.4 14,743.8 5,680.9 21.4 1,568.0
Q1 8,700.0 8,755.0 13,552.0 7,273.5 10,900.5 6,980.2 22.8 1,307.0 47.6 22.8 1,344.6 245.6 22.9 566.8
Q2 7,635.0 8,948.0 21,560.2 6,995.5 7,846.8 1,557.0 21.4 2,057.3 178.0 21.4 11,656.1 5,260.4 21.4 942.7
Q3* 100.0 129.3 2,354.0 180.3 541.6 5.4 21.0 69.3 0.0 21.0 1,743.1 174.8 20.8 58.5
1 2
*up to Jan 15, 2024 The amount does not include the non‐competitive bids. Latest cut‐off available
3
These amounts are raised from non‐bank institutions and/or individuals at auctions weighted average rate.

T‐Bill Auctions (accepted amount) T‐Bill Cut‐off rate


3‐M 6‐M 12‐M Total 3‐M 6‐M 12‐M Policy rate
2,500 30.00

2,000
25.00
billion Rs

1,500

percent
20.00
1,000

500 15.00


9‐Feb‐23
23‐Feb‐23
9‐Mar‐23
27‐Mar‐23
6‐Apr‐23
20‐Apr‐23
4‐May‐23
18‐May‐23

15‐Jun‐23
22‐Jun‐23

10‐Aug‐23
24‐Aug‐23
7‐Sep‐23
21‐Sep‐23
5‐Oct‐23
19‐Oct‐23
2‐Nov‐23
16‐Nov‐23
30‐Nov‐23
14‐Dec‐23
28‐Dec‐23
10.00
1‐Jun‐23

13‐Jul‐23
25‐Jul‐23

11‐Jan‐24

Feb‐23

Jul‐23

Aug‐23

Sep‐23
Mar‐23

Apr‐23

May‐23

Jun‐23

Oct‐23

Nov‐23

Dec‐23

Jan‐24
PIB (Fixed Rate) Auction (billion Rs (Face value); rates in percent)4 PIB (Floating rate Semi Annual) Auction (billion Rs (Face value))
3‐Year 5‐Year 10‐Year 15‐Year 20‐Year Total Target 3‐Year 5‐Year 10‐Year Total Target
5
Cut‐off rate 11.7 11.6 11.5 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ ‐ ‐
FY22Q3 Offered 583.5 667.0 530.7 6.5 5.5 1,793.2 FY22Q3 Offered ‐ 37.8 20.0 57.8
Accepted 141.0 165.4 119.5 ‐ ‐ 425.9 300.0 Accepted ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 300.0
5 5
Cut‐off rate 14.0 13.2 13.2 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price ‐ ‐ ‐
FY22Q4 Offered 399.4 664.8 789.3 22.1 ‐ 1,875.6 FY22Q4 Offered ‐ 41.8 8.8 50.5
Accepted 58.8 229.5 331.9 ‐ ‐ 620.2 350.0 Accepted ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 350.0
5
Cut‐off rate 13.9 13.4 13.0 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 96.0 ‐
FY23Q1 Offered 425.8 969.5 576.0 5.7 ‐ 1,977.0 FY23Q1 Offered ‐ 159.6 32.5 192.1
Accepted 108.8 498.4 10.7 ‐ ‐ 617.9 500.0 Accepted ‐ 91.6 ‐ 91.6 300.0
Cut‐off rate5 13.8 13.4 ‐ ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 95.4 93.8
FY23Q2 Offered 230.6 528.3 218.5 ‐ ‐ 977.4 FY23Q2 Offered ‐ 1,662.0 156.3 1,818.3
Accepted 79.9 135.2 ‐ ‐ ‐ 215.1 525.0 Accepted ‐ 1,140.7 99.6 1,240.2 350.0
5
Cut‐off rate 18.1 13.8 ‐ ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
FY23Q3 Offered 96.0 83.3 179.1 ‐ ‐ 358.4 FY23Q3 Offered ‐ 24.5 11.5 36.0
Accepted 25.0 0.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ 25.1 300.0 Accepted ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 300.0
5 5
Cut‐off rate 19.4 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price ‐ 94.54 ‐ ‐ ‐
FY23Q4 Offered 752.7 131.3 203.7 ‐ ‐ 1,087.7 FY23Q4 Offered ‐ 747.6 ‐ 747.6
Accepted 419.7 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 419.7 520.0 Accepted ‐ 547.0 ‐ 547.0 510.0
5
Cut‐off rate 19.3 17.0 15.3 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 95.4 ‐
FY24Q1 Offered 449.6 92.2 174.8 ‐ ‐ 716.5 FY24Q1 Offered ‐ 2,125.4 ‐ 2,125.4
Accepted 148.9 0.3 0.1 ‐ ‐ 149.3 480.0 Accepted ‐ 1,258.0 ‐ 1,258.0 560.0
5
Cut‐off rate 17.2 15.9 15.0 ‐ ‐ Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 96.34 93.93 ‐
FY24Q2 Offered 1,111.3 247.0 286.4 ‐ ‐ 1,644.7 FY24Q2 Offered ‐ 3,334.9 1,273.3 4,608.2
Accepted 364.5 76.5 168.6 ‐ ‐ 609.5 510.0 Accepted ‐ 1,586.6 845.5 2,432.1 1,020.0
"‐": Either no bid received or bids were rejected. 4
Excluding non‐competitive bids and short‐selling accommodation Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 96.49 94.41 ‐
5
Quarterly rate/ margin are for end‐period. *up to Jan 15, 2024 FY24Q3* Offered ‐ 321.8 232.9 554.6
PIB (Floating rate Quarterly) Auction (billion Rs (Face value))6 Accepted ‐ 98.3 50.0 148.3 120.0
7
2‐Year 3‐Year 5‐Year 10‐Year Total Target 3 & 5‐year Fixed Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs)
Cut‐off Price5 99.5 99.2 ‐ ‐ Total Fixed rental
Target Total offered
FY22 Offered 1,383.3 2,620.6 ‐ ‐ 4,003.9 ‐ accepted rate8
Accepted 889.1 1,661.6 ‐ ‐ 2,550.7 1,335.0 FY21 120.0 83.2 52.5 8.4
5
Cut‐off Price 99.5 99.2 ‐ ‐ Q1 60.0 56.0 44.3 8.4
Q1 Offered 320.0 834.9 ‐ ‐ 1,154.9 Q2 45.0 18.5 ‐
Accepted 139.0 636.5 ‐ ‐ 775.5 335.0 Q3 15.0 8.8 8.3 9.5
5
Cut‐off Price 99.1 98.3 ‐ ‐ Q4 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Q2 Offered 575.2 281.5 ‐ ‐ 856.7 FY22 250.00 746.77 377.79
Accepted 443.7 144.8 ‐ ‐ 588.5 350.0 Q1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Cut‐off Price5 99.2 98.4 ‐ ‐ Q2 100.0 208.1 80.7 11.4
Q3 Offered 172.2 832.1 ‐ ‐ 1,004.3 Q3 75.0 422.9 255.8 11.4
Accepted 137.0 648.6 ‐ ‐ 785.6 300.0 Q4 75.00 115.77 41.23 12.49
Cut‐off Price5 91.1 97.3 ‐ ‐ FY23 505.00 553.02 256.33
Q4 Offered 315.9 672.1 ‐ ‐ 988.1 Q1 65.0 78.1 19.7 12.5
Accepted 169.4 231.8 ‐ ‐ 401.2 350.0 Q2 120.0 5.6 0.3 12.5
5
Cut‐off Price 98.6 97.1 Q3 110.0 6.2 1.2 12.5
FY23 Offered 3,495.3 2,325.8 ‐ ‐ 5,821.1 ‐ Q4 210.00 463.14 235.28 18.49
Accepted 2,358.6 1,381.4 ‐ ‐ 3,740.0 2,200.0 FY24 480.00 1,194.67 493.97
5
Cut‐off Price 98.9 97.5 ‐ ‐ ‐ Q1 240.0 415.2 201.9 16.5
Q1 Offered 743.2 1,188.4 ‐ ‐ 1,931.6 Q2 240.0 779.5 292.1 15.8
Accepted 377.7 767.0 ‐ ‐ 1,144.7 320.0 7
DMMD Circular No. 06 of 2020 dated April 14, 2020
Cut‐off Price5 99.0 97.8 8
Fixed rental rate will be applicable to entire bids, and for the entire tenor of fixed rental rate ;
Q2 Offered 598.3 731.3 ‐ ‐ 1,329.6 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP
Accepted 469.2 418.2 ‐ ‐ 887.4 490.0 3 & 5‐year Variable Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs; margin in bps)
5
Cut‐off Price 98.5 96.7 Total Total Fixed rental
Target 8
Q3 Offered 1,655.4 216.8 ‐ ‐ 1,872.1 offered accepted rate
Accepted 5 1,291.2 105.5 ‐ ‐ 1,396.7 670.0 FY20 300.0 597.0 186.1 (10.0)
Cut‐off Price 98.6 97.0 FY21 230.0 604.8 383.2
Q4 Offered 498.5 189.2 ‐ ‐ 687.7 FY22 750.0 1,414.3 1,139.9
Accepted 5 220.5 90.7 ‐ ‐ 311.2 720.0 Q1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Cut‐off Price 98.7 97.3 Q2 300.0 586.4 507.2 100.0
FY24 Offered 973.4 1,760.0 ‐ ‐ 2,733.4 ‐ Q3 225.0 313.0 201.7 100.5
Accepted 5 538.3 767.0 ‐ ‐ 1,305.3 2,220.0 Q4 225.0 514.9 431.0 100.2
Cut‐off Price 98.6 97.3 FY23 835.0 705.1 377.5
Q1 Offered 632.2 650.3 ‐ ‐ 1,282.5 Q1 195.0 220.3 101.1 12.5
Accepted 5 405.4 460.0 ‐ ‐ 865.3 800.0 Q2 280.0 372.0 241.0 12.5
Cut‐off Price 99.0 98.1 Q3 360.0 112.8 35.5 12.5
Q2 Offered 337.4 1,029.2 ‐ ‐ 1,366.6 Q4 520.0 695.1 426.9 18.49
Accepted 133.0 296.5 ‐ ‐ 429.5 1,260.0 FY24 740.0 1,797.2 715.7
Cut‐off Price5 ‐ 98.1 Q1 420.0 984.8 449.9 99.7
Q3* Offered 3.8 80.5 ‐ ‐ 84.3 Q2 320.0 812.5 265.8 98.8
9
Accepted ‐ 10.5 ‐ ‐ 10.5 160.0 This cut‐off margin, with the benchmark of 6‐month MTB Auction Weighted Yield,
6
DMMD Circular No. 23 of 2020 dated October 16, 2020 *up to Jan 15, 2024 is applicable to all accepted bids;
Special Issuances to IPPs (billion Rs) Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP
PFL (S.A 10 Y ) G.I.S (VRR 05 Years)
FY23
Q1
Q2
Q3 58.6
Q4 21.9

Financial Markets 26
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Foreign Exchange Market

PKR against international


currencies % App / (Dep) of PKR Daily Movement of PKR against USD (Rs/USD)
Latest Last MPS January1 320
25‐Jan‐24 12‐Dec‐23 Jun‐23 FY24 FY23 300
280
260
USD* 279.67 283.78 285.99 2.26 (11.28)
240
220
Euro* 304.48 305.82 312.93 2.78 (14.91) 200
180
Sterling* 355.82 356.68 364.14 2.34 (12.57) 160
140

Jan‐22

Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Oct‐22
Nov‐22

Jan‐23

Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Nov‐23

Jan‐24
Feb‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22

Feb‐23

Sep‐23

Dec‐23
JPY* 1.89 1.95 1.99 5.27 (15.00)

USD Kerb 279.92 283.25 288.50 3.07 (15.63) Updated till January 25, 2024

Premium (Rs) 0.25 ‐0.53 2.51 ‐ ‐


Daily Movement of USD against Major Currencies
USD/Euro USD/GBP Yen/USD (RHS)
Daily NEER 38.57 38.10 37.66 2.42 (11.85)
* Mark to Market Revaluation Exchange Rates. 1.8 155
Source: Domestic Markets And Monetary Management Department (DMMD) and Core
1.6 145
Statistics Department (CSD), SBP
135
1.4
125
International exchange rates 1.2
% App / (Dep) of USD
115
Latest Last MPS January1 1.0 105
25‐Jan‐24 12‐Dec‐23 Jun‐23 FY24 FY23
0.8 95
Jan‐22

Mar‐22
Apr‐22

Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Jan‐23

Mar‐23
Apr‐23

Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Jan‐24
Feb‐22

May‐22
Jun‐22

Sep‐22
Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22

Feb‐23

May‐23
Jun‐23

Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
USD/EUR 1.09 1.08 1.09 0.51 (4.09)

Updated till January 25, 2024


USD/GBP 1.27 1.26 1.27 0.07 (1.45)

JPY/USD 147.78 145.45 143.55 2.95 (4.20)

INR/USD 83.14 83.39 82.01 1.38 3.48

CNY/USD 7.17 7.18 7.21 (0.60) 1.35


PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Quarterly Basis
THB/USD 35.76 35.54 35.21 1.55 (7.05)
Volatility
High Low Close Average 2
MYR/USD 4.73 4.68 4.66 1.43 (3.18) C/C

SGD/USD 1.34 1.34 1.35 (0.69) (5.40) Q4‐FY21 158.60 152.08 157.54 154.59 4.24
1
Updated upto January 25, 2024.
Q1‐FY22 170.75 157.65 170.66 164.62 6.55

PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Fiscal Year Basis Q2‐FY22 178.35 169.60 176.51 174.48 6.81
Volatility
High Low Close Average 2
C/C Q3‐FY22 183.70 174.32 183.48 177.46 3.52

FY17 104.97 104.26 104.85 104.80 0.78 Q4‐FY22 212.10 181.00 204.85 194.96 10.81

FY18 122.50 104.88 121.50 109.97 3.14 Q1‐FY23 242.00 204.00 228.45 224.56 15.05

FY19 164.50 121.54 160.05 136.27 8.84 Q2‐FY23 228.75 216.75 226.43 222.82 4.58

FY20 169.50 154.13 168.05 158.26 5.21 Q3‐FY23 287.00 226.75 283.79 261.08 18.00

FY21 168.75 151.50 157.54 160.33 4.03 Q4‐FY23 299.90 283.25 285.99 286.04 6.25

FY22 212.10 157.65 204.85 178.01 6.89 Q1‐FY24 307.75 271.00 287.74 291.57 10.09

FY23 299.90 204.00 285.99 248.00 10.96 Q2‐FY24 288.65 275.65 281.86 283.24 3.51

3
FY24 307.75 271.00 280.24 286.88 6.41 Q3‐FY243 281.75 280.57 280.24 281.20 2.24
2
Reuters: Average Close‐to‐Close Daily Volatility (in %)
3
Updated upto January 15, 2024; High/Low rates of M2M.

Financial Markets 27
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER)


(Base 2010=100)

NEER Index 2021 2022 2023

Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecP

Sep 57.47 ‐ ‐3.25 ‐3.72 ‐11.93 ‐18.41 ‐17.78 ‐34.62 ‐35.07 ‐35.99 ‐33.99
2021

Dec 55.61 ‐ ‐ ‐0.49 ‐8.98 ‐15.67 ‐15.02 ‐32.42 ‐32.89 ‐33.84 ‐31.77

Mar 55.34 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐8.53 ‐15.26 ‐14.60 ‐32.09 ‐32.57 ‐33.52 ‐31.43

Jun 50.61 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐7.36 ‐6.64 ‐25.76 ‐26.27 ‐27.32 ‐25.04


2022

Sep 46.89 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.77 ‐19.86 ‐20.42 ‐21.55 ‐19.09

Dec 47.25 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐20.48 ‐21.03 ‐22.15 ‐19.71

Mar 37.58 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐0.70 ‐2.10 0.97

Jun 37.32 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐1.42 1.68


2023

Sep 36.79 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3.14

DecP 37.94 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Changes in Relative price Index (RPI)


(Base 2010=100)

RPI 2021 2022 2023

Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecP

Sep 170.09 ‐ 3.36 3.21 10.19 14.99 21.27 33.93 38.22 46.60 53.19
2021

Dec 175.81 ‐ ‐ ‐0.15 6.60 11.25 17.33 29.58 33.72 41.83 48.21

Mar 175.55 ‐ ‐ ‐ 6.76 11.41 17.50 29.77 33.92 42.04 48.43

Jun 187.42 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4.36 10.06 21.55 25.44 33.05 39.03


2022

Sep 195.58 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 5.46 16.48 20.20 27.49 33.23

Dec 206.27 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 10.44 13.97 20.89 26.32

Mar 227.81 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3.20 9.46 14.38

Jun 235.10 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6.06 10.84


2023

Sep 249.35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4.50

P
Dec 260.57 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Changes in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)


(Base 2010=100)

2021 2022 2023


REER Index
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecP

Sep 97.76 ‐ 0.00 ‐0.63 ‐2.97 ‐6.19 ‐0.29 ‐12.43 ‐10.26 ‐6.17 1.13
2021

Dec 97.76 ‐ ‐ ‐0.63 ‐2.97 ‐6.19 ‐0.29 ‐12.43 ‐10.26 ‐6.17 1.13

Mar 97.14 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐2.35 ‐5.59 0.34 ‐11.88 ‐9.69 ‐5.57 1.77

Jun 94.86 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐3.32 2.75 ‐9.76 ‐7.52 ‐3.30 4.22


2022

Sep 91.71 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6.28 ‐6.66 ‐4.34 0.02 7.80

Dec 97.47 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐12.18 ‐10.00 ‐5.89 1.43

Mar 85.61 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 2.48 7.15 15.49

Jun 87.73 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4.56 12.69


2023

Sep 91.73 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 7.78

DecP 98.86 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Note: The REER and NEER have been recalculated since Jan, 2013 using these revised weights and number of trading partners. For detail, please visit the Revision Study at
P
https://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/stats/NEER‐REER.pdf : Provisional
Source: Core Statistics Department (CSD), SBP

Financial Markets 28
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Capital Market
Performance of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)
Percentage change during
1 2
Jan‐24 Dec‐23 FY23 FY22 Jan‐24 FY23 FY22
TM
End‐period KSE ‐100 index 64,298 62,451 41,453 41,541 3.0 ‐0.2 ‐12.3

TM
End‐period KSE ‐30 index 21,699 20,777 14,637 15,805 4.4 ‐7.4 ‐16.6

3
Market capitalization (billion Rs) 9,359 9,171 6,563 7,714 2.0 ‐14.9 ‐1.4

3
Trade volume (million shares) 518 1,031 192 300 ‐ ‐ ‐

4
SCRA flows (US$ million) 46.4 26 ‐143 ‐1,228 ‐ ‐ ‐
1
Updated upto January 25, 2024
2
Reflects growth since end of the previous month
3
Average during the period
4
Cumulative net flow during the period. Daily SCRA is updated till January 19, 2024.

KSE ‐100 Index and Ready Volume Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market
Volume of Shares KSE‐100 index (RHS) (as percent of market capitalization)
2000 70,000 5.20
1800 65,000
1600
60,000 4.90
Million shares

1400
1200 55,000
1000 50,000 4.60
800 45,000
600
40,000 4.30
400
200 35,000
0 30,000 4.00
Feb‐22

Sep‐22

Feb‐23

Sep‐23
Jan‐22

Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22
Jun‐22
Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23

Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23
Jun‐23
Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24
Feb‐22

Jun‐22

Sep‐22

Feb‐23

Jun‐23

Sep‐23
Jan‐22
Mar‐22
Apr‐22
May‐22

Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Oct‐22
Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23
Mar‐23
Apr‐23
May‐23

Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Oct‐23
Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24

Source: PSX Updated upto January 25, 2024 Sources: PSX and CSD, SBP

Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA) Net Flows


Financial Expenses of Corporate Sector 5
SCRA KSE‐100 index (RHS)
60 70,000 4.5
as percent of total expenses

40 65,000
20 4.0
60,000
0
Million US$

55,000 3.5
‐20
50,000
‐40
45,000 3.0
‐60
‐80 40,000
2.5
‐100 35,000
‐120 30,000 2.0
Feb‐22
Apr‐22

Jun‐22

Sep‐22
Oct‐22

Feb‐23

Apr‐23

Jun‐23

Sep‐23
Oct‐23
Jan‐22

Mar‐22

May‐22

Jul‐22
Aug‐22

Nov‐22
Dec‐22
Jan‐23

Mar‐23

May‐23

Jul‐23
Aug‐23

Nov‐23
Dec‐23
Jan‐24

CY16

CY17

CY18

CY19

CY20

CY21

CY22

Source: PSX and CSD, SBP Updated upto January 25, 2024
Source: PSX and DSID, SBP

5
This includes listed companies of Non‐Finanical Sector only.
Sources: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and SBP.

Financial Markets 29
Monetary Policy Information Compendium January 2024

Financial Soundness Indicators

(percent)

Sep‐22 Dec‐22 Mar‐23 Jun‐23 Sep‐23

Risk weighted CAR1 16.6 17.0 16.3 17.8 19.1

Gross NPLs to total loans 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.4 7.7

Provision to NPLs 91.9 89.5 90.7 94.4 95.5

Net NPLs to net loans 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4

Returns on assets (before tax) 2.0 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.0

Return on assets (after tax) 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5


2
ROE (before tax) 33.0 35.3 48.5 50.7 52.1
2
ROE (after tax) 14.5 16.9 27.8 26.0 26.9

Net interest income/gross income 78.3 79.8 82.1 82.2 84.4

Liquid assets/total assets 57.0 56.6 58.7 59.9 62.1

Liquid assets/total deposits 82.7 86.4 91.6 91.2 97.4

Advances/deposits 46.4 50.4 47.2 45.0 42.4


Note: Figures are based on unaudited Quarterly Report of Condition (QRC) submitted by banks.
1
Data of IDBP,PPCBL, and SME Bank is based on Basel I.
2
Average equity and surplus.

Banks' NPLs Banks' Profitability Indicators (percent)


Gross NPLs Gross NPLs to total loans (RHS) Return on equity (after tax) Return on assets (After tax)
1100 9.0 30.0 1.8
28.0
1000 26.0 1.6
8.5
billion rupees

24.0
900 22.0 1.4
percent

20.0 1.2
800 8.0 18.0
700 16.0 1.0
7.5 14.0
600 12.0 0.8
10.0
500 7.0 8.0 0.6
Sep‐21

Dec‐21

Mar‐22

Sep‐22

Dec‐22

Mar‐23

Sep‐23
Jun‐22

Jun‐23
Dec‐21

Mar‐22

Dec‐22

Mar‐23
Sep‐21

Jun‐22

Sep‐22

Jun‐23

Sep‐23

Source: FSD, SBP Source: FSD, SBP

Source: Financial Stability Department (FSD), SBP

Financial Markets 30

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