Change theory and theory of change: what's the difference

anyway?................................................

ABSTRACT

It focuses on the difference between a theory of change and change theory, as it relates to systemic
change projects in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) higher education. The
essay describes the connections between theory of change - change theory and provides examples of
how change theory can inform a project’s theory of change.

Theory of change → project-specific and related to evaluation. It makes the underlying rationale of a
project explicit, which supports planning, implementation and assessment of the project. Is often
required by funding agencies as a part of grant proposals.

Change theories → represent theoretical and empirically grounded knowledge about how change
occurs that goes beyond any one project.

A theory of change is informed by change theories.

INTRODUCTION

It has been difficult to translate STEM knowledge into tangible reforms in undergraduate education.
Many efforts designed to promote change in undergraduate STEM education have fallen short of
their intended outcomes. When efforts have been successful, they have improved their impact over
time through iterative evaluation research and revision.

Despite so, traditional instructional strategies continue to dominate in STEM classrooms. Instructors
who adopt evidence-based strategies often quit (abandonar) using them or they use them
ineffectively.

Given this reality, researchers and funding agencies have recognized the need to better understand
HOW change occurs in STEM higher education. One program recgonized that achieving meaningful
change in undergraduate STEM education requires changing the entire system, not just a behaviour.

What should change agents do to try to achieve change? What might they need to know to make
change in their particular context? → Funding agencies now ask grant proposals to use theory.

Ambiguity of the term ‘’theory of change’’. In this article:

1. Distinguish between a theory of change (and related terms) and change theory and research,

2. Describe the various roles that change theory and research can play in building and refining a
theory of change for a specific project.

THEORY OF CHANGE

The roots of a ‘’theory of change’’ (TOC) came from the field of theory-driven evaluation: aimed to
move beyond a simplistic input-output notion of evaluation and instead required that program
designers state how they expected a program work (making their implicit assumptions explicit) → it
allows to understand what is being implemented and why making connections between intervention
- outcomes.

A TOC was designed to evaluate complex community initiatives focused on social science as a tool to
help articulate underlying assumptions from the beginning. The process of creating the TOC allows a
team to reach consensus on its underlying (subyacentes) assumptions which then are codified in an
explicit product. → the goal of this process is to work toward understanding ‘’under what conditions
does something work? For whom?’’.

The initial TOC for a project are hypotheses about ‘’how change will occur’’. A TOC is a particular
approach for making underlying assumptions explicit, and using the desired outcomes of a project as
a mechanism to guide planning, implementation, and evaluation.

Anatomy of a theory of change

Process of developing a TOC:

1. Recognize the context in which the change effort will occur. (Change in STEM higher
education occurs within a complex system → consider factors that may influence the way in
which a change initiative plays)
2. Process of backwards (hacía atrás) to describe how one is supposed to get those results. → A
team makes explicit the outcomes (short-term outcome/mid-term outcome/ long-term
outcome). → Preconditions
3. Describe why particular preconditions are necessary and sufficient to achieve the long-term
outcome (how particular intervention will achieve preconditions)

Each precondition is paired with a number of indicators.

4. A TOC articulates the interventions to achieve the preconditions and long-term outcomes →
These represent the project’s concrete activities.
5. A project team articulates the assumptions behind the above elements and the linkages
between them. Based on the experience on the project team and research literature.

To understand a TOC visually, a pathway of change is created for the connections between
preconditions, long-term outcome, indicadors and interventions, and the underlying context.

*The lines of the pathway represent the hypothesized rationale of the project alongside the project’’s
context. Assumptions → accompanying the diagram. This diagram often begins from top-down.

Logic models, logframes, and outcome maps

Myriad (incalculable) terms and representations for the underlying logic of a project.

- Common representation: Logic Model → explicates in detail the resources that go into the
project, the activities undertaken to produce the outcomes, and the tangible results of the
activities. They often communicate the overall vision or aspiration of the project and the
short-mid-long-outcomes.
- Distinction of a TOC and Logic Model: TOC is much more flexible, Logic Model does
not always make implicit the underlying assumptions about how change will happen.
 A Logic Model may articulate assumptions and relevant contextual factors (how and
why of a project) - similar to TOC. A Logic Model can be conceptualized as a different
format for organizing the same info. - easy to communicate with funders.

Both are complementary tools.

THE ROLE OF CHANGE THEORY AND RESEARCH

Change research: any scholarship that focuses on how to make change happen.

- Some change has a strong theoretical or empirical basis. An important subset of change
research is change theory: a framework of ideas, supported by evidence, that explains some
aspect of change beyond a single project. It represents generalixed knowledge about how
change works.
- Change initiatives that are not informed by change research have 2 limitations:

1. the initiative is less likely to succeed, because it does not profit the wealth (riqueza)
of knowledge already developed by change researchers

2. the initiative itself is less likely to contribute to generalizable knowledge, because it

will be more difficult to cast the findings of the study in terms of existing scholarship

- Ways that research and theory can contribute to a change effort (5) - for each of them 2
examples of change research and theory to illustrate how they can inform the development
of a TOC.

Context

Change theory and research can inform our understanding of the context of a change effort (relevant
communities, actors and stakeholders (partes interesadas), policies, practices and beliefs, capacity
and receptiveness of the targets, historical/political/sociocultural factors).

- Viewing change as a complex system is important because context will influence the impact
of a change intervention. Theories help change agents identify and characterize aspects of
the system and culture.

- To illustrate how theory can inform the recognition of context in a TOC, this articles provides
2 theoretical frameworks. They help change efforts recognize the various parts of a system
important to a change effort:

1. The teacher-centered reform model (TCRF): context of efforts that aim to change
teacher’s practices (personal, structural and cultural factors). It describes parts of
this system and why they can be expected to influence education reform.

2. The four frames model of organizational change: draws attention to different aspects
of the system. It focuses on culture within (dentro) organizations. Different views
through which an organisation’s culture can be viewed. Operationalices culture as
and ever-changing set of structures and underlying ways of thinking and the resulting
power relationships between individuals.
 It can define which cultural factors an agent will need to attend in order to
understand the success of an effort in order to support the desired long-term
outcomes.

Predictions and rationale

Key part of the process of developing a theory of change: identifying the sort and intermediate-term
outcomes called PRECONDITIONS. The preconditions included in a TOC are necessary to achieve
long-term outcomes.

There must be a RATIONALE for linking preconditions to the ultimate outcomes. Rationales: explain
how the unexpected interventions are likely to result in meeting preconditions and achieving the
long-term outcome. How does intervention A cause precondition B to be met? And how does meeting
precondition B help to achieve the long-term outcome?

- Change theory and research help a team recognizing preconditions and why are they
necessary to achieve them on the path of the long-term outcome.

2 theoretical frameworks that inform preconditions and rationale in a theory of change:

1. Theory of planned behavior: Relevant to achieve behavioral change among individuals. It

explains what shapes behavior over which individuals have the ability to exert self-control. A
key factor influencing behavior is an individual’s intention to perform the behavior. Intention
is influenced by an individual's attitude toward the behavior (favorable or unfavorable
evaluation of the behavior), the subjective norms (social pressures or expectations to
perform or not the behavior) and their perception (self-efficacy, individual confidence) of
their own control.

This theory applied to change effort, proposes preconditions to adopting a new teaching
strategy including a positive attitude about it and condidence that one can successfully adop
the strategy.

2. The 4I framework of organizational learning: Relevant to achieve organizational change, but

it can also be used to inform the design of a change project. Processes involved in creating,
retaining and transferring knowledge within an organization. Organizational learning is a
multi-level process that involves individual, group and organizational learning connected by 4
bi-directional processes:

a. Intuiting: individual. Developing insights based on personal experiences.

b. Interpreting: Bridge between individuals and groups. Involves explaining an insight

to oneself and others. Conversation and dialogue.

c. Integrating: It connects the group and organizational levels. It involves developing

shared understanding among individuals and taking coordinated actions.

d. Institutionalizing: Organization level. New ideas and actions become embedded into
routines, rules, procedures.
*Change theory and research can inform a theory of change by helping a team determine what
preconditions are likely to be important to achieve a desired long-term outcome and why those
particular preconditions are important.

Indicators

Indicators; HOW a project team determines if each precondition and the long-term outcome have
been met. One or more indicators allow to assess the degree to which implementation of the project
acitivites is having the intended impact. They must be fully operationalized wich includes
determining the variable will be measured, target population, sufficient for the limit of change.

They should be set in the beginning stages of a project. Assessing indicators helps measure progress
made toward the outcomes, for the members of a team indicators can help provide motivation. It
also provides formative feedback and helps communicate the outcomes and progress toward
outcomes.

- Undergraduate STEM education: some desired outcomes might deal with teaching practices.
Indicators are described in a single report that reviews approaches to measuring and
documenting STEM teacher practices.

Change projects in undergraduate STEM education include important preconditions and

long-term outcomes besides changes in teaching practice. This requires different indicators.

*Change theory and research can inform a theory of change by helping a team determine which
indicators can assess progress toward a long-term outcome and the preconditions on the way to the
outcome.

Interventions

Intervention: What the project ‘’does’’ to try to achieve change → A list of steps that may be
nonlinear. Strategy, process, approach, model. The intervention provides an organizing framework for
the types of project activities that a change effort engages in.

Building a TOC ensures that careful consideration has been given to how the activities will lead to
preconditions and how preconditions contribute to achieving the long-term outcome. Some change
interventions are grounded in existing change theories, others not.

2 Change interventions designed for STEM grounded in existing change theory:

1. Keck/PKAL model (Project Kaleidoscope): Process for achieving institutional change in

undergraduate STEM education. Formed by change theories about organizational learning,
org. culture… 8 stages:

a. (1) establishing vision

b. (2) examining the landscape and conducting capacity analysis

c. (3) identifying and analyzing challenges and opportunities

d. (4) choosing strategies

 e. (5) determining readiness for action

f. (6) beginning implementation

g. (7) measuring results

h. (8) disseminating results and planning next steps

2. Departmental Action Teams (DAT): externally groups of facility, students and staff working
collaboratively in a department with a collective educational outcome. Shared visioning
activities to develop consensus on a focal issue and a set of outcomes, then it
collects/analyyze/interpretates the data. It supports the creation and implementation of an
action plan. DATs focus on a single department, recognizing that:

a. departments tend to have relatively consistent cultures

b. making sustainable changes to education requires cultural change

Assumptions (suposiciones)

A major feature of a TOC is the articulation of underlying assumptions about HOW change occurs.
These include assumptions about the nature of the context, how it will moderate the change
process, preconditions to reach the long-term outcomes, rationales connecting preconditions to
each other and long-term outcomes,....

The assumptions may come when aspects of an initiative fail. Change theory can be useful for
guiding trouble-shooting that places when aspects of the project are unsuccessful. Assumptions may
be found in a TOC so change theory and research will be relevant to articulating assumptions

2 Lenses (lentes) that propose alternative ways of thinking about areas relevant to change in
undergraduate STEM education:

1. Community cultural wealth: a framework that characterizes ‘’knowledge, skills, abilities and
contacts possessed and utilized by communities of color to survive and resist macro- and
micro-forms of oppression”

Recognizes different forms of capital (eg.g linguistic capital includes cognitive and social skills
gained through experiences).

It can be useful for change efforts to extend the participation in STEM → Retention from
minority groups.

2. Appreciative inquiry: assumes that organizations have infinitive constructive capacity to

improve. Achieves change by discovering, magnifying, and eclipsing positive attributes and
successes in an organization rather than focusing on identifying and solving problems.

Ask questions to members about WHAT ARE THEY DOING WELL. The more positive the
questions asked, the more long-lasting and successful a change effort will be.
*All change efforts are built around some assumptions, but the construction of a theory of change
helps make those assumptions explicit, and can ensure that the assumptions are grounded in prior
research and practice as much as possible.

Summary and conclusion

We argue that change efforts should develop their own theory of change grounded in a change
theory.

- A project contextualizes change theory on their own situation → increases the likelihood od
the project’s success and amplify the contribution to generalizable knowledge.

10 Change Management Models Explained.......................................................................................

Change management models = guides or instructions to help you successfully lead change

Change is critical to every organization, to thrive organizations must accelerate their speed of change
to execute faster than their competition.

You can combine elements of different models.

Models that focus on the process of change, the steps you take

● Kottor’s 8-Step Change Model

First phase: Create a climate for chance

Creating a shared understanding of the change you want to make and why you want
to make it.

Second phase: Engage and enable the organization

Engaging your team so that they are empowered and enthusiastic about affecting
change in the organization

Third phase: implement and sustain

Pressing ahead after your initial successes to build momentum and fully embed the
change within your organization
 ● Lewin’s Change model

UNFREEZE → CHANGE → REFREEZE

Begin by preparing for the change → implement the change → embed the change into the
organization

● Deming Cycle / the PDCA cycle

→ tool that can help you continuously improve your products services and organizational
processes

→ you can use this four stage cycle over and over again for continuous improvement

● McKinsey 7s Framework

It’s not a pure process model, because it contains both people and process elements.

→ a strategic planning tool designed to help an organization understand if it is set up in the

right way, a way that allows it to achieve its objectives

Hard areas are easy for management to influence and change

Soft areas are more woolly and influenced by the culture of the organization

The organization’s values are central to all elements

Models that focus on the human response to change or managing people through change

● ADKAR Model of Change

 → Focuses on guiding change at the individual level, because the people in the organization
must change first before an organization can change

● Nudge Theory

→ based on the idea that people can be nudged to make the right choice without coercing
them or restricting their freedom of choice

→ it works by leveraging the biases inherent in every human being to nudge people towards
exhibiting a desired behavior

→ Every one of us has these cognitive biases and all nudge theory does is leverage these
biases to move us towards taking specific action

● Satir Change Model

→ This model was designed to help people improve how they cope with major unexpected
change

It is always possible for things to get better, however this takes time and things usually get
worse before they get better

● Bridges’ Transition Model

 → model that enables you to understand and manage the human side of change, the model
helps organizations manage change successfully by mapping out the human response to
change over three stages

The neutral zone = in-between time when the old is no more but the new hasn’t arrived yet

● The Change Curve

→ this helps us understand how people emotionally experience a major disruptive change

● Maurer 3 Levels of Resistance

→ this model is based on the idea that people resist change to protect themselves from
harm

Level 1: I don’t get it

People are missing the facts and figures they need to understand why change is
necessary

Level 2: I don’t like it

People experience an emotional response to change, it’s difficult for them to take on
board new ideas when they’re in a fight or flight mode

Level 3: I don’t like you

People are not resisting the change at this level but they don’t trust your ability to
deliver it

Leading Change: Why Transformation Efforts Fail ( John P. Kotter)...............................................

Intro

The author has watched more than 100 companies try to remake themselves into significantly better
competitors.

The most general lesson to be learned from the more successful cases is that the change process
goes through a series of phases that, in total, usually require a considerable length of time.

A second very general lesson is that critical mistakes in any of the phases can have a devastating
impact, slowing momentum and negating hard-won gains.

Error 1: Not establishing a great enough sense of urgency

Successful change starts with a clear analysis of a company's situation, often underestimated, leading
to a high failure rate. Challenges include pushing people out of their comfort zones, managing
urgency, and balancing short-term results with long-term vision. New leaders, especially CEOs, play a
key role in driving change. Acknowledging unpleasant facts, even creating a crisis, can raise urgency.
CEOs engineered crises, like large accounting losses or publicizing poor customer-satisfaction
surveys. An urgency rate of about 75% conviction among management is vital for successful
transformation.

Error 2: Not Creating a Powerful Enough Guiding Coalition.

Successful organizational transformations require a powerful guiding coalition that expands

significantly over time, typically involving top executives and influential individuals. This diverse
group, numbering from 5 to 50 members, operates outside the regular hierarchy, leveraging their
varied expertise and relationships. Building trust among coalition members is crucial, often achieved
through off-site retreats involving shared assessments of the company's challenges. Failure in this
phase often stems from underestimating the complexities of change and the necessity of a robust
guiding coalition. Without strong leadership, transformation efforts falter when faced with
opposition, emphasizing the pivotal role of a well-established and influential guiding coalition in
driving successful change.

Error 3: Lacking a Vision

In successful organizational transformations, a clear and concise vision is essential. This vision,
crafted collaboratively over months, provides direction beyond typical plans, guiding the
organization's future. The guiding coalition refines the vision, ensuring it outlines essential ideas and
strategies for the organization. Without a sensible vision, transformation efforts become disjointed,
leading to confusion and alienation among employees. A successful vision is communicable in under
five minutes, inspiring understanding and interest, uniting employees, stakeholders, and customers
toward a common goal.

Error 4: Undercommunicating the Vision by a Factor of Ten

In successful organizational transformations, effective communication is vital. There are three

common communication patterns: first, a poorly communicated transformation vision leads to
misunderstanding; second, despite speeches, the vision gets lost in the sea of yearly communication;
third, extensive communication efforts are hampered when senior executives' actions contradict the
vision, breeding cynicism among employees.

For transformation to succeed, clear communication is necessary to engage employees and make
them believe in meaningful change, especially during downsizing. Successful executives incorporate
the vision into daily activities, ensuring alignment between proposed solutions and the big picture.
They use all available communication channels, transforming mundane materials into engaging
articles about the vision and prioritizing existing channels to reach employees. Consistency between
words and actions is vital, as incongruent behavior by influential individuals can undermine the
change process.

Error 5: Not Removing Obstacles to the New Vision

In successful transformations, involving a large number of people is vital. Employees are encouraged
to innovate within the overall vision, but effective communication alone isn't sufficient. Obstacles,
such as rigid structures or resistant bosses, must be addressed promptly. For instance, a company's
progress was hindered when a divisional officer resisted change, causing cynicism among managers
and derailing the effort. While not all obstacles can be eliminated, tackling significant hindrances is
essential. Dealing fairly with blockers, aligning with the new vision, empowers others and upholds
the change effort's credibility, paving the way for successful transformation.

Error 6: Not Systematically Planning For and Creating Short-Term Wins

Real transformation requires gradual progress, and short-term goals are crucial for maintaining
momentum. Tangible evidence of change within 12 to 24 months keeps employees engaged and
motivated. Successful transformations show clear improvements like quality enhancements,
increased market share, or successful product launches within one to two years. These wins are vital,
proving that efforts are delivering results and preventing resistance. Managers actively seek
performance improvements, set goals, and reward achievements to create these short-term wins.
Pressure to achieve these wins is beneficial, maintaining urgency, preventing complacency, and
driving focused, energized change efforts.

Error 7: Declaring Victory Too Soon

In organizational transformations, managers often rush to declare victory when initial improvements
are seen. However, this premature celebration can lead to the loss of meaningful changes. Changes
take years to embed deeply, and declaring victory too early undermines progress. Premature
celebrations are driven by enthusiasm but can be exploited by those resisting change, causing
momentum to stall. Successful leaders avoid premature celebrations and use short-term wins'
credibility to tackle bigger challenges, addressing systemic issues and focusing on long-term goals.
Sustainable transformation requires continuous efforts over years, ensuring lasting change within the
organization.

Error 8: Not Anchoring Changes in the Corporation’s Culture

To solidify change in corporate culture, new behaviors must become social norms and shared values,
ingrained as "the way we do things around here." This integration is vital for lasting transformation,
ensuring that new behaviors endure even after the initial pressure for change subsides.

Two key factors facilitate this institutionalization process. Firstly, there must be a deliberate effort to
showcase how new approaches positively impact performance. Clear communication is crucial to
avoid misattribution of improvements. For instance, employees might credit a charismatic leader's
style instead of recognizing their own contributions. Effective communication, such as discussing
performance improvements at meetings and highlighting changes' impact in company publications,
helps reinforce the right connections between actions and outcomes.

Secondly, investing time in ensuring the next generation of top management embodies the new
approach is essential. Unchanged promotion criteria hinder lasting change. Poor top-level succession
decisions can undo years of effort. In cases where boards aren't actively involved, retiring change
champions may be replaced by leaders lacking commitment. These decisions, influenced by boards'
limited understanding, lead to choices misaligned with the organization's new direction.
Consequently, signs of renewal fade, highlighting the crucial need for leadership that embraces and
embodies transformation efforts.