D.A. Davidson Automotive Technology Report
D.A. Davidson Automotive Technology Report
D.A. Davidson Automotive Technology Report
Q2 - 2023
APRIL 2023
1935
THE STRENGTH OF ADVICE
Automotive Technology: In This Issue
May 2023
D. A . D a v i d s o n’s M a r ke t S e g m e n t a t i o n Pr i v at e M a r ke t A c t i v i t y, A d d -
01 a n d K e y Tr e n d s i n A u t o Te c h
The most comprehensive market map of
the automotive tech industry and a
discussion of key trends impacting the
02 Ons, and PE Roll-Up Strategies
A review of private market M&A and
capital raise activity, recent transactions,
and analysis of consolidation strategies
industry today, including digital and among large incumbents (R&R, CDK
physical channel convergence, tech stack Global, and Cox) as well as private-equity
consolidation, and data integration backed platforms
03 S e l e c t D. A . D a v i d s o n R e s e a rc h
Analysis of the residual effects of COVID
inventory shocks on Carvana, Cars.com,
CarGurus, and TrueCar – and tracking
04 Outlook for Auto Dealers
An interview with Jeff Rubin, COO of
Competition Auto Group on the state of
the market, lead generation, and the
public market index valuation multiples observed (and potential) impact of
over the past 3 years emerging technologies for dealerships
D.A. Davidson’s Vertical Software Thesis & Select Transactions D.A. Davidson’s Public Coverage of Auto Tech & Ecosystem
Inspection Warranty
CRM and
Marketing Marketplaces
Servicing
Data
DMS
Financing &
Wholesale Insurance
Listings Inventory Titling
Logistics Auctions
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
=
DMS / ERP Marketing, Online Inventory and Finance,
Connected
Auto dealership, repair, CRM, Analytics, Marketplaces / Car Rental Auto Parts Insurance, &
Vehicles
RV, and watersport and Data Digital Retailing Management Other
Online & POS Web Lead Online Inventory Maintenance GIS & Mapping Floor Plan
Fleet Management
Payments Management Sourcing Management Data Products Financing
Servicing Tracking Customer Profiling 3rd Party Service Online & POS
Data & Analytics Fleet Management Order Management
& Scheduling & Targeting Integrations Payments
Payroll & Employee Customer Real-time Price Check-in & Shipping Smart Traffic Registration, Titling,
Management Communication Discovery Check-out Scheduling Management and Warranty
Connected Car RV, Watersport, & Title Warranty, Data Analytics &
Car Rental Software DVI & VIN
Software Powersport Registration, & Services
Logistics
Easing Divergence Macro and Substitution of Manual Private Equity Roll-up Enhanced Data Changing Hardware &
Between Digital and Demographic / Processes With Strategies Aimed at Capabilities Will Lead Car Infrastructure
Physical Sales Generational Trends Software Resulting in Building an All-in-one to Greater and More Unlocks Critical New
Channels Fall in the Favor of Sustainable Gains in Solution Prevalent Broad Monetization Data Source
Digital Platforms Efficiency Across Auto Tech
1 2 3 4 5 6
Automotive Software
2022 Global Automotive Total US New Car 2022 Dealership Digital
$19B Software Market Size(7) 16,000+ Dealerships(6) ~15% Market’s Anticipated 2022 –
2030 CAGR(7)
$6B Advertising Spend(6)
Sources: 1) Pitchbook data 2) 2021 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index 3) J.D. Power Dealer
Financing Inspection Survey 4) Based on 400 company sample size 5) Berg Insights 6) National
Automobile Dealers Association 7) GlobleNewswire
1 Narrowing bifurcation between digital and physical strategies 2 Digital platforms are benefitting from generational tailwinds
Vendors are investing to meet the balanced demands of convenience and practicality from retail As generational transfer of dealership ownership continues, younger operators /
consumers, dealers, and auction owners – most often requiring balanced physical and digital owners' comfort level and propensity in using digital platforms to source, market,
strategies. and sell inventory has, and will continue to, increase significantly.
KAR Global’s divestiture of US-based ADESA physical assets to Carvana: Carvana jarred Wall Street Digital platforms have taken hold at dealerships, online marketplaces, and wholesale
analysts’ faith in “digital only” retail model and reinforced dealers’ confidence in the perseverance of the auctions: The digital shift in automotive is gradual, and more evolutionary than
physical marketplace. Carvana is betting on its ability to: revolutionary. But the impact of digital and its place within the dealer toolset has been
1. Convert an expanded logistics and reconditioning footprint into improved unit economics while cemented by recent events:
it works on continued cost-cutting initiatives and; • COVID forced dealers and wholesale auction houses to adopt digital sales models to
2. Retain sufficient market access to capital and debt refinancing options to manage its $8B+ keep volumes running, with large auction conglomerates (ADESA, Manheim) shifting
debt load to all-digital auctions at the onset of shutdowns
The transaction signals KAR’s doubling-down on the future of digital – but the real immediate • Supply-chain and chip-shortage induced inventory constraints – along with
winners of the transaction were Manheim and independent wholesale auctions, which have consolidation of dealer groups – led to greater adoption of diverse inventory sourcing
benefitted from the migration of dealers’ auction volumes away from Carvana-owned ADESA. methods
Wholesale auction space moving towards hybrid: Digital-first auction platform EBlock continues to • Long-term automotive labor shortages are mitigated by tech – which is increasingly
acquire physical auctions – most recently Houston Auto Auction in early 2023, it’s fourth auction seen by dealers and customers as an essential tool to build trust and provide
acquisition. Eblock now has physical facilities and auctions in Louisiana, Michigan, Texas, and convenience
California. Customer satisfaction has increased with digital tool adoption: Millennials are now
Conversely, independent auctions (traditionally physical-only) are increasingly adopting digital auction America’s largest generation – and represent a new primary consumer base that prefers
systems. This strategy complements traditional physical auctions by expanding potential buyer bases, the convenience of online buying, with 76% of car shoppers open to buying completely
providing opportunities for upstream remarketing, and reducing fees. In doing so, physical auctions are online. Shifting consumer preferences, generational management changes, lower
going towards the puck - digital wholesale auction volumes increase while physical lane volumes overhead potential, and increased efficiency are long-term tailwinds for automotive
have been flat for the past decade. tech adoption.
Sources: 1) Automotive News 2) 2021 JPM Auto Annual Dealership Survey 3) Needham &
Company Research
3 Replacement of manual processes with software yielding long-term efficiency gains 4 Dealer tech stacks are consolidating and more integrated
Software is driving improved operational efficiency for historically labor-intensive processes like As seen in other verticals – vendors are building all-in-one, integrated solutions. A
vehicle inspection reports, logistics and transportation, titling and registration, payments, and DMS is most often at the center of consolidation strategies. Given the difficulty to rip-and-
inventory management. replace an incumbent DMS, they make the ideal platform for layering value-added
Tech adoption benefitting dealers, auction owners, and end customers: Dealers and other stakeholders monetization opportunities to sell to dealers, including:
benefit from reduced associated operational expenses, and technology is also driving the adoption more • Marketing automation and customer data platforms (CDPs)
consistent digital standards, which helps develop consumer trust. • Financing, insurance, titling, and registration
• Vehicle inspection and condition reports
Consolidation provides a clear value proposition – and is attracting widespread interest:
Digital Vehicle Inspection (DVI) / Condition Reports: Digital inspections Dealers benefit from reduced vendor touchpoints and improved functionality, while
captured with mobile devices in a standardized format, integrated into DMS vendors expand their cross-sell opportunities. This was spearheaded by industry
monoliths (including Reynolds & Reynolds, CDK, and Cox Automotive, see page 11) –
but is seeing industry-wide traction, reflected by surge of private-equity interest
(see page 12).
Consumerization of finance highlights value of F&I tech: J.D. Power acquired finance and
insurance menu and reporting software capabilities from Tail Light, driven by increasing
consumer demands:
"The pace of digital transformation in auto dealerships has been staggering, and the
F&I department has been leading that charge with growing demand for digital menu
solutions that clearly and consistently display financing details and special offers to
consumers whether they are in the showroom or buying online “ Phil Battista,
Titling and Registration: Integration with DMS and state systems for accurate,
President of dealership tech, J.D. Power
fast title processing and automated tax calculations
This trend is widely seen in other verticals, such as healthcare – consumers increasingly
expect greater transparency and optionality throughout the purchasing journey and auto
software vendors are accelerating solution deployment to meet this growing need. Solera
is promoting their “Solera Auto Finance” solution through variable discounts to their DMS
based on financing usage.
5 The next wave of innovation will follow better data monetization 6 Nascent connected car infrastructure has potential to be critical data
Automotive tech is in the early days of leveraging data to improve operations and sales, with source
the relatively recent emergence of the first true CDPs and more integrated DMSs. Automotive is in the early days of realizing the benefits of connected car
S&P Global Mobility’s February 2023 acquisition of Market Scan Information System: Market Scan, technology, as the majority of vehicles lack the underlying physical infrastructure
which provides Automotive Payments as a Service and a payments calculation engine to over 10,000 layer necessary for data collection.
US-based dealerships, provides S&P Global with automotive pricing and incentive intelligence and will This is changing – and tech vendors are building out the application layer to collect,
enable S&P Global to provide more accurate predictive pricing and improved marketing engagement to interpret, and monetize the data for varying use-cases, ranging from insurance,
its customers. Data will specifically be used to advise clients on customer loyalty and customer product embedded payments, theft prevention, and service/repair push notifications.
migration likelihood.
At its core, connected car technology seeks to accomplish what Alexa did with the
"The future of the business will focus on customer marketing with specific customer incentives down connected home, and the mobile phone did outside of the home – it gives businesses –
the road curated and personalized for every customer“ Dave Mondragon, MD/VP Automotive including insurance companies, payments platforms, vehicle service centers – the
Incentive and Pricing Solutions for S&P Global opportunity to move closer to the consumer a confined space where many people spend
Solera’s acquisition of Spireon – and Cox’s recent FleetNet acquisition – show recent momentum hours every week.
among core tech stack providers in shoring up data capabilities, while expanding fleet solutions:
Spireon provides Solera with a core telematics and vehicle intelligence platform (with over 4M
connected devices and 900B data points collected annually) to sell to both fleet and dealership bases.
Cox’s acquisition of FleetNet – while more traditionally fleet-services oriented, provides cost reduction Consumer Marketing
data insights.
D.A. Davidson believes this trend will continue to accelerate, as automotive software vendors leverage
data to build platforms and tools designed to directly influence purchasing decisions across the
automotive value-chain, including inventory management, financing and insurance, repairs and Insurance Dealer Data
servicing, remarketing, and consumer-facing retail marketing. While vendors will face technical Technology Solutions
headwinds integrating disparate platforms – the value of data in driving purchasing decisions is just Connected
beginning to be realized. vehicle data
monetization
COMMENTARY
Acquirer /
Date Target Industry Sub Segment Deal Type Target Business Description
Outlier deals – CDK’s $8.3B take private by Brookfield – drove most of Investor
activity in 2022 for Automotive Technology with capital raising hit harder
than M&A Provider of customer experience, trade cycle
4/23 Data & Analytics Buyout management, marketing, and employee engagement
▪ Brookfield’s $8.3B acquisition of CDK Global was the highlight for M&A software to auto dealers
activity in automotive technology for 2022. The space (similar to the rest of
the tech ecosystem) experienced a down year for both capital raising (72 Provider of digital remarketing software that uses AI to
deals vs 86 in 2021) and M&A (72 deals vs 86 in 2021) although still up Digital automate and enhance photos of cars used for
4/23 Buyout
from 2020 levels Remarketing marketing, integrate them into the distributor's system,
and publish them on internet sales platforms
▪ The slowing trend seems to be continuing, although mostly for capital
raises, with Q1 2023 seeing only 13 (5 M&A + 8 capital raises) total deals –
on pace for 52 deals in the calendar year Provider of a digital retailing, inventory management,
4/23 Digital Retailing Corporate M&A
and finance & insurance software solution for dealers
AUTOMOTIVE TECH TOTAL DEAL VOLUME 1
Steve Greenfield
“The three legacy DMS providers [Cox, CDK, and Reynolds and Reynolds] have the benefit of thousands of CEO, Automotive Ventures
existing paying dealer customers and are thus ideally positioned to acquire ‘tuck in’ acquisitions to cross-sell into
their installed dealer base”
Index: KAR, EINC, ACVA, CPRT, CAR, CARG, TRUE, CARS, CVNA, VRM, CPRT, SFT, AN, KMX - TEV/Total Revenues
8.0x
7.0x
6.0x
4.9x 4.2x
3.4x
4.0x
2.0x
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23
($ in millions, except per share data) Price Cap Value LTM CY2023 CY2023 CY2023 LTM CY2023 LTM CY2023
Copart, Inc. (CPRT) $79.05 37,675 36,124 3,673 3,963 7.9% NA 9.8x 9.1x 23.8x 21.3x
CarMax, Inc. (KMX) $70.03 11,071 29,872 31,126 26,595 (19.5%) NA 1.0x 1.1x 29.9x 34.2x
AutoNation, Inc. (AN) $131.70 6,007 12,600 26,631 26,116 (3.2%) 19.1% 0.5x 0.5x 5.9x 7.0x
carsales.com Ltd (CAR) $15.70 5,915 6,656 407 614 50.8% 276.8% 16.3x 10.8x 35.4x 20.3x
ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) $13.03 2,073 1,657 422 464 10.2% 77.9% 3.9x 3.6x NM NM
CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) $16.44 1,877 1,511 1,655 943 (43.0%) 64.0% 0.9x 1.6x 10.4x 12.3x
KAR Auction Services, Inc. (KAR) $13.54 1,478 4,130 1,519 1,590 4.6% 45.7% 2.7x 2.6x 17.2x 15.9x
Cars.com Inc. (CARS) $19.57 1,308 1,777 654 685 4.7% 78.0% 2.7x 2.6x 11.0x 9.2x
Carvana Co. (CVNA) $6.94 736 8,322 13,604 11,510 (15.4%) 11.4% 0.6x 0.7x NM NM
TrueCar, Inc. (TRUE) $2.57 228 75 162 171 6.2% 90.9% 0.5x 0.4x NM NM
E Automotive Inc. (EINC) $2.41 128 123 110 128 16.1% 40.5% 1.1x 1.0x NM NM
Vroom, Inc. (VRM) $0.81 112 679 1,949 1,020 (47.7%) 15.7% 0.3x 0.7x NM NM
Shift Technologies, Inc. (SFT) $1.44 25 173 671 288 (57.1%) 7.3% 0.3x 0.6x NM NM
Market Share Losses Emerge as a New Improving Inventories Bode Well Marketplace Performing Well; CarOffer
Issue for 2023 Operating Backdrop Recalibrations Ongoing 4Q light vs. expectations; No quick fix in ‘23
• Carvana looks to be bleeding market share to • Dealer inventories across the Cars.com platform • As local dealer inventories continue to • TrueCar’s revenue miss for Q4 ($36.7M vs
competitors as units sold for 2022 were down are up Y/Y for new (11%) and used (9%) are an rebuild, CarGuru’s core marketplace $40.4M consensus estimates) showcases the
23% relative to the industry average of 6% while encouraging sign that the Company could business – growing 4% Y/Y – remains a current difficult and uncertain macro
5 out of 6 top competitors also experienced weather a mixed and uncertain operating critical piece of the digital marketing puzzle environment as the company was hurt by the
accelerating unit sales in Q4 2022 environment in 2023 for local dealers pace of new vehicle production, the declining
health of smaller independent dealers, and the
• Long term profitability concerns remain as • New and expanding products offered by • Although CarGurus’ marketplace shows shift in OEM incentive marketing budgets to end
Carvana struggled on unit level (72% decline in Cars.com (CreditIQ and Accu-Trade) create overall strong performance, questions about 2022
gross profit per unit or GPU) and organizational further potential for cross platform revenue CarOffer’s (CarGurus Acq. in 2021)
level (-$291M Q4 EBITDA) synergies and potentially allow it to capture normalized growth rate and long-term margin • Investors and dealers are eagerly waiting in
valuable share in the local dealership market profile remain unanswered anticipation of TrueCar’s eCommerce solution,
TrueCar+ as both a significant revenue driver
and additional platform capability
SELECT AUTO TECH COMPANY'S EV/ LTM REVENUE
8.0x
6.1x
6.0x
4.4x
4.0x
2.6x 2.6x
2.0x 1.3x
1.1x
0.6x
0.3x
0.0x
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23
D.A. Davidson hosted an April 2023 interview with Jeff Rubin, COO of Competition Auto Group, and member of multiple nationwide peer advisory Click here to reach out to the D.A. Davidson
groups. Jeff shared insights on the state of the market, lead generation, and emerging technologies. Here are select takeaways: team for access to the full report
1 • 2023 soft-landing: Dealers are in a “soft-landing” from the extraordinary market last year, as dealers profited from supply shortages across
brands and increases demands from post-COVID demographic shifts away from urban cores
Supply is likely to • Supply and demand imbalance will likely persist: OEMs and dealers have done exceptionally well with higher prices, fewer subsidies and
remain limited relative rebates, and lower unit output. Even as supply chain and chip shortage issues fade – inventories are likely to remain depressed
to demand
• Lingering COVID impacts: Supply is also likely to take a hit as the market hits the three-year mark after COVID shutdowns prevented new
vehicle transactions – as a result, there will be virtually no lease ends in the coming months
2 • Interest rates impacting consumers and dealers: Dealers are constrained by higher inventory carrying costs, and consumer demand is
Recessionary outlook Tom White
mitigated by the potential of a recession and overall higher borrowing costs
and interest rates place Managing Director,
emphasis on ROI • With a direct impact on tech adoption: ROI is front-of-mind for dealers, and new technologies need to support a demonstrable ROI or they Senior Research Analyst
are unlikely to be adopted
3 • Digital matters more for marketing than actual sales: A digital presence is extremely important for marketing, but complicated processes
Digital is important – but (leasing and financing), fraud risk, and experiential components of vehicle sales inhibit digital purchasing. Digital presence generates online
in-store presence leads than close at the dealership
necessary to close • Hybrid strategy offers the best of both worlds: Rubin sees the potential for a “digital concierge” model that better augments the digital
experience with personal (or AI) assistance and transitions leads to the physical dealership
4 • Platforms must consider – and measure – omnichannel sales cycle: Automotive sales cycles are complex and typically across multiple
Attribution and channels (including radio and television). Dealers struggle to unite the customer journey across channels and often lack multichannel Jeff Rubin
measurability are critical attribution capabilities, leading to less informed advertising spend COO, Competition Auto Group
for ad spend • Dealers looking to reduce costs should scrutinize digital lead generation spend: Cost-conscious dealers may benefit from analyzing
ad-spend ROI from multiple digital lead generation tools – and more sophisticated dealers are often only working with one or two third party
digital lead generation vendors
5
• Tension between OEMs and dealers for potential monetization opportunity: OEMs are increasingly involved in controlling connected car
OEM decisions on infrastructure – and it remains to be seen how this will impact third-party providers (including dealers) that typically provide, or serve as a
Competition Automotive Group is a
leading NYC-area car dealership
connected car channel, for these devices group, with six stores primarily in
infrastructure will impact the Long Island area across the
• Likely outcome – cooperation given the importance of the dealer to the customer relationship: Connected car is likely to open up new Mercedes-Benz, Subaru, BMW,
dealers avenues to do business with consumers – and given the critical role the dealer has in educating and influencing the buying decision, OEMs and Infiniti brands
and dealers are likely to work together
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