SECTION 1: UNDERSTANDING GUESSTIMATES

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1.1 Introduction

What are guesstimates?

A guestimate, as the word suggests, is guessing the estimate. But rather than simply guessing the answer, one
has to solve a guesstimate problem in an interview using a rational and structured approach.
Just like any other case problem, a guesstimate has to be solved together with the interviewer through a free-
flowing conversation. The interviewee is expected to draft a structured approach to reach the solution,
communicate the same effectively, verify assumptions, work the math and reach a sensible solution. And
always remember, when it comes to the evaluation of a candidate by and interviewer, the process of arriving at
the final number always holds more bearing than the number itself.
A guesstimate is common tool used in not just consulting interviews, but across industries and functions. Hence,
being comfortable with guesstimates is essential as a first step to your interview preparation.

1.1.1 Companies that have asked guesstimate problems in their processes before

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1.1.2 Important evaluation parameters in a guesstimate-based interview

These seemingly complicated one liner problem statements are typically used to assess a candidate’s ability
on multiple fronts. Hence, candidates are expected to be well prepared on all of the aspects listed below.
The hygiene factors essential for the candidates are:
• Structured thought process
• Logic and rationale
• Coherence
• Comfort with basic math and numbers
• Communication and soft skills
Other important factors to be kept in mind are:
• Clearly calling out assumptions
• Stating your sources for the assumptions (personal experiences and things you have generally
observed are completely acceptable as sources, but calling that out clearly and upfront is always better
than being prompted for your source)
• Ability to think on one’s feet, take a step back and course correct when necessary
• Creativity and use of multiple approaches
• Sanity check after arriving at the solution
• Use of common sense at all stages (again, course correct if you think something is glaringly wrong)
• Taking the interviewer’s help when stuck
• Calling out industry specific knowledge, along with its source (be careful to use industry knowledge to
your advantage; i.e. solve for most numbers and use your industry knowledge only as a verification
tool)
• Confidence and attitude towards problem solving
Interviewers will evaluate you on all the parameters listed above. So, make sure you are well prepared to
showcase your command over all factors. Practice, accordingly, so as to play by your strengths and work on
your weaknesses. Ace the hygiene factors first, and then build your aptitude on the other important factors.

1.2 Types of Guesstimate Problems and Common Structures

While some case interviews have specific problem types and frameworks to approach them, there are no
standard frameworks for approaching guesstimates. In this section, we have still bucketed different types of
guesstimate problems and have listed some approaches you can use to tackle them.
Don’t bind your problem-solving approaches to the structures listed here. This is just to guide your thinking
process, and not to limit it.

1.2.1 General “Estimate the number of..” type problems

This is the most common problem type, wherein you will be asked to estimate the number of schools in a city
or cars at a traffic signal or people at an airport. These can be asked as standalone problems or as a part of a
larger case.
Based on the problem statement, you either take a top-down or a bottom-up approach to solve these problems:
• Top-Down (Start Big) Approach: The whole can be used as a starting point, which can be split and
segmented as per certain criteria/assumptions to reach the desired subset. For example, to estimate
the number of schools in India, the total population can be used as a starting point.
• Bottom-Up (Start Small) Approach: Estimate the number for a specific segment or unit and
extrapolate the number to get the whole. This approach is most commonly used when there are
constraints on the number you are estimating. For example, to estimate the number of people at an
airport, start with finding the number of runways or waiting gates and see if any of these is the binding
constraint.

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1.2.1 Market sizing problems

Another common problem type which is similar to “estimating the number” type problems, wherein candidates
are expected to estimate the dollar or rupee value of the market size of a product or service. Typical examples
are estimating the market size for biscuits in India, cars in Delhi, newspapers in a tier-2 city, luxury watches in
Mumbai, etc.
The most common approach to solve these problems is the volume-price approach. In this approach, you
estimate the volume using the start small or start big approaches listed in section 1.2.1 above and you estimate
the product’s/service’s price separately. Then you multiply the two get the market size. Writing an equation for
the same upfront, and then drilling down on each part of the equation separately is a good approach to solve
these problems.
In some cases, you may have to use both start small and start big approaches simultaneously. To estimate the
market size of wall paint in India, you’d use the start small approach to estimate the demand for one house and
the start big approach to estimate the total house that are painted in a year, and finally multiply both to get the
market size.

1.2.2 Abstract estimations

Abstract problems, as the name suggests, are random and don’t follow a particular structure. Some common
problems are estimating the number of basketballs that can fit in a Boeing 747 or grains of grass on a cricket
field.
Although these problems are not asked very frequently, you should still practice some of them so that you are
not taken aback in an interview. There is no set formula or structure for these. So, sit back, relax and think
about how you can break the problems into smaller pieces and try framing an equation upfront. Thereafter, rely
on pure logic and common sense to solve for each part of your equation.

1.2.3 Data driven problems

This is rather a subset of the three problem types mentioned above, wherein the interviewee is handed over a
dump of data tables which he/she is expected to use to solve the problem.
Common things to keep in mind while solving these problems are:
1.2.3.1 Analyze and absorb all the data given to you before you start solving
1.2.3.2 If any data point is given to you, don’t make assumptions for the same and use the given
information as is
1.2.3.3 In all likelihood, you will be given all the data you need. So simply frame an equation, substitute
the data and solve the math. Suggest alternate approaches still, that you feel can work better with
the problem.
1.2.3.4 If you use any data not given (assumption or well-known numbers), call it out upfront.
1.2.3.5 Take hints for segmentation from the data given
1.2.3.6 You don’t have to use all the data given. So, don’t force fit things and overcomplicate your
approach.

1.3 Common Dos and Don’ts of guesstimates

We have divided the common do’s and don’ts into the following three broad categories:
1. Structural: this includes the do’s and don’ts with respect to breaking the problem statement down
into its many levers; any problem statement needs to be simplified first before any numbers can be
used and this header covers hygiene factors related to the same
2. Communication: almost as important as the structure is the use of soft skills to communicate the
solution effectively; this header talks about how to hold an interviewer’s interest and ensure he stays
on the same page
3. Analytical: no guesstimate is complete with the basic use of math and numbers and this header talks
about how to organize numbers effectively and how to simplify their use

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We will attempt to explain each of the three categories ahead in detail:
1. Structural Dos and Don’ts
• Each guesstimate can be solved using multiple approaches – understand that there is no one single
approach to solving a guesstimate and the interview is mostly open to any logical approach
• Use the approach that you feel most comfortable with and where you can justify the assumptions with
maximum ease
• To ensure your approach is well structured and thought through, ask for 2-3 minutes upfront after
hearing the problem statement; use this time to draw a structure on your A4 sheet
• Post this, before getting into any numbers or details around the solution, take 2 mins to walk the
interviewer through your high-level approach and seek feedback (this allows the interviewer to course
correct you)
• All assumptions made must be elucidated to the interviewer. Sometimes the interviewer might ask
you to use a different assumption than what you suggest. No assumption is right or wrong, it just
needs to be sellable
• There should be a logical backing to each assumption you make (even personal experience counts).
E.g., ‘I would assume that 30% of Indians are veg – In my class of 50 people, there are close to 15
vegetarians
• Don’t look to solve the guesstimate as one big guesstimate – break it into 3-4 smaller guesstimates
and make a funnel in your head. For e.g if asked to estimate the number of Red Hyundai I20s in
Delhi, first guesstimate the total number of cars in Delhi and the move forward
• Don’t be fixated on your structure – if an interviewer tries to change it around or suggests another
path, hear them out and see if it makes logical sense
• Use your rough sheet smartly – draw an issue tree very neatly at the beginning so that both the
interviewer and you are very clear on how to approach the guesstimate and how to proceed

2. Communication Dos and Don’ts

• Whenever stuck, request the interviewer for time; there is absolutely no harm in asking the interviewer
for a few minutes to gather your thoughts
• After you reach every important number, take 15-20 seconds to summarize where you are in the
guesstimate to the interviewer – this will allow the interviewer keep pace with you and is also a good
hygiene practice of letting an interviewer know the ground you’ve covered. You should ideally
summarize where you’ve reached at least 2-3 times in a guesstimate at strategic points
• Clearly communicate to the interviewer at the start or during one of your summaries how you plan to
use the next 3-5 minutes; it’s very important that an interviewer knows where you are headed with
things
• There might be several points in the guesstimate where you feel stuck on how to proceed; in such
occasions it’s always a good idea to take a step back. For e.g. if you don’t know what’s the next step
you can always say, “Am not sure of how to proceed from here, how about I summarize our findings
till now and then we take stalk of what comes next?”
• Minimize verbosity – be sharp and start with the message always. Don’t move in circles. For instance,
never say “In my opinion, and this is based on the approach I just described and looking at the
population per capita income we have just arrived at, I believe that the smart phone market, again
very roughly though, will grow at XX%”; be sharp and say “The smart phone market will grow at XX%,
based on two assumptions X and Y”
• As shown above, always be message first! And explanations later
• Always remember – the setting of a guestimate is such that you and the interviewer are jointly trying
to arrive at a solution! Don’t feel burdened into believing that you need to have all answers, ask for
help!!
• Given the above, while your communication should be formal and crisp, always keep it conversational

3. Analytical Dos and Don’ts

• Always round off your numbers to closest multiple of 5 or 10 for simplicity. State that you’re doing
that. Sometimes the interviewer may want you to use the number as it is
• While doing your calculations, it is a good practice to keep voicing them and talking about them – it
helps an interviewer if you’re walking your interviewer through your math while at it
• Write your numbers and math very neatly on your rough sheet – this will help an interviewer keep
track and course correct if needed

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 • In case you are dealing with heavy math, don’t get ruffled. You can take your time, making no
mistakes is always better than being fast!

1.4 Links to Mock Case Interview Sessions

Please read the following guidelines before viewing the videos:
• All the videos have two parts to them. In the initial bit, we talk about how to approach guesstimate problems,
how to prepare and what the common do’s and don’ts of guesstimates solving are. In the later halves, we
conduct mock interviews which are meant to give you a sense of how an actual interview runs.
• Read up and absorb all the material in Sections 1.1 to 1.3 before viewing the videos. The initial halves of
the videos will emphasize on the most important bits of the same.
• The latter halves of the videos are mock interview simulations, in which we break after every few minutes
to discuss what went right and wrong. You should pause the video at such points and think about these
yourselves before continuing. This will maximize your learning from the videos.
• Practice mock interviews with your case group after watching these videos and revisit them later to see if
you are following the learnings from it.
Link 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpxhvTY4CFU
Link 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMVwwf02L2w

1.5 Practice Questions with Solutions

1.5.1 Estimate the number of schools in Delhi

We take a Top-Down or Start Big approach to solve this because we have to estimate a very broad scoped
number, which is not bound by a constraint as such.
This approach can also be described as an Inverted Pyramid approach as we slice and dice a big number
based on certain criteria to drill down to our required subset. The pyramid we use particularly in this problem is
as follows:

Replicating the same with numbers, we get to our solution:

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1.5.2 Estimate the number of burgers sold at a McDonalds

We take a Bottom-Up approach here as the number of burgers sold is constrained by the number of available
counters and the traffic each counter can handle.
The assumptions (to be stated upfront to the interviewer) are:
1.5.2.1 Timeline – A single day
1.5.2.2 Day – Monday
1.5.2.3 Location – Metro or Tier 1 city
1.5.2.4 Size/Capacity – Average sized with 4

counters Henceforth, the solution is as follows:

1.6 More guesstimate Practice Questions

We have collated a set of guesstimate questions which have been asked in prior interviews. Further, we have
divided these questions into 4 categories
• L1 (for beginners and those starting out on their guesstimate journey)
• L2 (for those who have practiced 5-10 guesstimates and have a basic understanding of how to
approach them)
• L3 (for more advanced preparation; target these preferably after you get your respective shortlists
only)
• L4 (for those who are extremely comfortable with guesstimates and have received very strong
feedback on their preparation)

S. No. Questions
L1 (For beginners and those starting their guesstimate journey)
1. Estimate the number of students in your previous school
2. Estimate the number of employees in your previous organization
3. Estimate the total calories you intake in a day
4. Estimate your monthly expenditure on online food ordering
5. Estimate your salary potential 10 years from today
6. Estimate the total budget of a 3-day trip with your friends to Manali
7. Estimate the total budget of a 3-day trip with your friends to Manali
8. Estimate the total expenditure/cash outflow you’ve made in the last 2 years
9. Estimate the number of ISB alums
10. Estimate the number of infants in Asia
L2 (For intermediates looking to improve)

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 1. Estimate the number of schools in Delhi
2. Estimate the number of cars in Delhi
3. Estimate the number of Red Hyundai I20’s in Mumbai
4. Estimate the revenue of ISB
5. Estimate the revenue of Sarovar
6. Estimate the number yearly sale of 2 wheelers in Bangalore
7. Estimate the number of coke bottles sold in India annually
8. Estimate the number of B-schools in India
9. Estimate the number of B-schools in India
10. Estimate the revenue generated by Apple from sale of iPhones in India every year
11. Estimate the number of notebooks used in ISB every year
12. Estimate the number of children served under Delhi’s Mid-Day Meal scheme
13. Estimate the revenue of Vistara from sale of flight tickets only
14. Estimate the number of units of Ponds Fair & Lovely sold each year
15. Estimate the number of metro users in Delhi
16. Estimate the size of the smartphone market in India
17. Estimate the size of the console gaming market in India
18. Estimate the number of Netflix accounts in India
L3 (For experts looking to level up)
1. Estimate the annual revenue of HUL personal care business – top down & bottom up
2. Estimate the annual revenue of Patanjali
3. Estimate the number of foreign visitors visiting Agra annually – use two approaches
4. Estimate the number of flights taking off from Delhi each day
5. Estimate the number of Indians travelling abroad each year
6. Estimate the number of Starbucks outlets in the world
7. Estimate the total number of delivery boys employed by both Dominos and Pizza Hut
8. Estimate the number of delivery orders placed through Swiggy+Zomato/ month
9. Estimate the number of auto’s parked at MG Road metro station right now
10. Estimate the number of cars parked in CP right now
11. Estimate the number of female executives earning 1 Cr+ in India as of 2020
12. Estimate the number diet Pepsi cans consumed in corporate offices in India each day
13. Estimate the number of consultants recruited by MBB each year
14. Estimate the revenue of Tropicana Mixed Fruit juice every year
15. Estimate the revenue Times of India annually
16. Estimate the number of students joining IIT coaching classes/year – two approaches
17. Estimate your total savings by the age of 50
18. Estimate the total revenue potential of your organization by 2050
19. Estimate the number of law enforcement personnel in India – use two approaches
20. Estimate the number of light bulbs in ISB
21. Estimate the number of Autos in Delhi
L4 (For masters looking to perfect)
1. Estimate the number of grains of rice that can cover the ISB football field
2. Estimate the number of videos on YouTube
3. Estimate the number of streetlights in Delhi
4. Estimate the GDP of India
5. Estimate the cost of painting the entire ISB campus again
6. Estimate the number of planes in the Indian Airspace at this point of time
7. Estimate the potential revenue Indian Railways can generate from advertising
8. Estimate the total capacity of Maruti Suzuki plants in India
9. Estimate the effect of COVID-19 on the Indian GDP

1.7 Appendix: Guesstimates Cheat Sheet

This section has some numbers you are expected to know on your fingertips when you appear for consulting
interviews.
Population Split
By City : India | Metros (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai) | Hometown
By Geography : Urban | Rural

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Demographic Split
By Age : 0-18 | 19-30 | 31-60 | 60 +
By Gender : Female | Male

Income Split : Low | Middle | Upper

We have not included any industry specific data here, as you aren’t expected to know that, but you may want
to note down some broad numbers pertaining to your previous industry (market size in volume and rupee terms,
market share split among the top players, etc.).
So, add on to this list accordingly to make your personalized cheat sheet.

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THANK YOU!