322 Population Geography

(2) Marx considered the existence of place simultaneously with its

demographic transformation.
capitalistic node of production at
the root of the problens ofpoorand Today different countries of the world are
at different stages of the demographicduetransition.
surplus population which is thinks, this is largely to the
always not true. As Trewartha
dualnature of man. Biologically man is the same
(3) Karl Marx believed in social reform
only, trarsformation from every where and is engaged in the process of
capitalistic society to communistic reproduction but,culturally he differs from one
cultural
society, for the solution of various part of the world to another. It is the
diversity of man that gives rise to varying
socio-economic problems. But this
fertility patterns in different areas resulting in
ideology and communism is rarely different stages in demographic transition.
succeed in the world.
It is recognized that socio-economic and
(4) Some of theoratical predictions transitions progress
have not been found true on demographic
simultaneously, different countries in the world
empirical verification.
require different time span to complete the
3. Demographic Transition Theory process in consonance with their own pace of
economic development. But the demographic
Demographic transition theory is a change in a country is not necessarily bound
general model describing the evolution of levels with its economic and technological
of fertility and mortality over time. It has been achievements because today, countries at a low
devised with particular reference to the level of advancement can also have an easy
experience of developed countries of Europe, access to the medicines being developed by the
America and Australia which have passed technologically advanced countries.
through the process of industrialization and The demographic transition model
urbanization, and it has attracted various suggests three to five conspicuous stages
criticism as a general model. (phases). The original statements of Thompson
The demographic transition theory in its and Notestein on the demographic transition
original form was propounded by W.S. theory were subsequently reformed and
Thompson (1929) and Frank W. Notestein reformulated with the passage of time. A wide
(1945). They based their statements on the variety of literature related with the
trends in fertility and mortality being demographic transition shows that different
experienced by developed countries of the West. scholars have explained the theory considering
The theory postulates a special pattern of three to five stages in demographic trasition.
demographic transformation from a high Thompson suggested the existence of
fertility and high mortality to a low fertility three stages in the demographic transition : (1)
and low mortality, when a society progresses Pre-transition period, (2) Transition period, and
from a dominantly rural, agrarian and illiterate (3) Post-transition period. Notestein also
society to a predominantly urban, industrial identified the occurrenceof three stages in the
and literate society.Following three hypotheses demographic transition : (1) High growth rate,
are involved in this process of transformation : (2) Decreasing growth rate, and (3) Population
(1) The decline in mortality comes decrease. While Thompson and Notestein
before the decline of fertility. considered three stages in demographic
transition, Karl Sax and G. T. Trewartha
(2) The fertility eventually declines to
match mortality, and recognized four stages and C. P. Blacker and
Peter Cox have described the theory according
(3) Social and economic
transformation of the society takes to five stages.
 Theories of Pupulation 323

Stages of Demographic Transition according to Different Scholars

Name of Scholar Stages of demographic transition
W.S. Thompson 1. Pre-transition period
2. Transition period
3. Post-transition period
F.W. Notestein 1. High growth rate
2. Decreasing growth rate
3. Population decrease
Karl Sax and G. T. Trewartha 1. High stationary stage
2. Early Expanding stage
3. Late expanding stage
4. Low stationary stage
C.P. Blacker omd Petas oy 1. High stationary stage
2. Early expanding stage
3. Late expanding stage
4. Low stationary stage
5. Declining stage
Four stages of demographic transition These four stages of demographic
stated by G. T. Trewartha are relatively transition are recognized on the basis of
much clear and most recognised. Here an changing patterns of the birth rate and the death
attempt has been made to describe rate. According to the pattern of population
demographic transition model according to growth the three stages of demographic
these four stages. transition are recognized in which second and
I. High Stationary Stage : In this stage third stages of the above stated four staged
(phase) both birth rate and death rate are high model are combined together.
and population is stationary at low level. I. High Stationary Stage
II. Early Expanding Stage: In this stage the
Population begins to grow, as a result of a stable It is the initial stage of demographic
birth rate and a rapidly declining death rate. transition in which the fertility (birth rate) is
over 35 per thousand and is almost stable. In
III. Late Expanding Stage : This stage is this stage, the mortality (death rate) is also high
characterised by a slowing in the growth rate
as the death rate stabilizes at a low level and being more than 35 per thousand but its
the birth rate declines. behaviour is erratic because of epidemics and
variable food supply. In this stage the
IV. Low Stationary Stage : In the fourth population is often stable or slowly growing
stage, birth and death rates have stabilized at and the people are engaged in primary
low level and the resultant population growth
activities. This is the characteristic of agrarian
is very slow and population becomes nearly societies where the density of population is low
stationary at high level. or moderate, productivity level is low, life
 Population Geography
324

I|I Stage IV Stage

IStage IIStage

40
1000) Birth rate

(per
rate
Death 30
/
rate
Birth T o ti
a Plo p u l a t i o n

20
Death rateWww Kwwwyinyiiyi

10
Time

Fig. 15.1:Demographic Transition Model.

expectancy is low, people in masses are illiterate, II. Early Expanding Stage
the development of non-agricultural sector is
at its infancy stage and urban development is This is the second stage of demographic
limited. transition which is characterized by a high
About 200 years ago, all the countries of birth rate of over 35 per thousand and a sharply
the world were at this initial stage of reduced death rate of over 15 per thousand. In
demographic transition but today it is difficult this expanding stage of demographic transition,
health
to say whether any country in the world would the improvements in sanitation and
still be at 'this stage of the demographic conditions, general productivity etc. results in
transition mainly due to the spread of modern
technology and the facilities of medicines even sharp decline in the death (mortality) rates,
while the fertility maintains a high level. Thus,
in the most backward countries. Bcause of this,
it isvery difficult to find a solitary example of a high fertility and declining mortality is the main
country which may still be unaffected by the characteristic of early expanding stage. In this
gradually
process of declining mortality all over the world. stage population expands at a
Exceptionally some limited areas in equatorial increasing rate. Afganistan, Iran, Iraq, Nepal,
Pakistan in Asia and
(tropical) Africa may be traced which may be Myanmar, Bangladesh and
in the high stationary stage of demographic Morocco, Sudan,
Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana,
Nigeria,
transition.
Congo Democratic Republic (Zaire),
 Theories of Pupulation 325

Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya in Arica are Hradualdecline leading to a gradually decrease
in the rate of population increase. The countries
included in this category. in his stage experienced high net increase in
their population.
II. Late Expanding Stage The examplcs of the countries in the late
expanding stage are Egypt and South Africa in
SlowBy declining fertility and sharply
declining mortality is the main characteristic Africa; India, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia,
of late xpanding stage of demographic Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey etc. in Asia and
transition. It is also characterized by a slowing Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru,
in the growth rate because the death rate Venezuela, Maxico etc. in Latin America. These
countries experienced birth rate between 20 to
stabilized at a low level (below 15 per thousand) 35 per thousand while death rate has come
and declining birth rate stands over 20 per below 15 per thousand.
thousand. This decline is associated with
growth of an industrial-urban society. In this
IV. Low Stationary Stage
stage, process of industrialization, urbanization
and modernization become prominent and This is the last stage in the demographic
large families are no longer an asset. transition which is attained when both fertility
Consequently, the birth rate undergoes a and mortality rates decline appreciably. In

Table 13.1

Stage of Demographic Transition in Selected Countries of the World (1990-95)

Country/Stage
Crude birth rate Crudedeath rate
per 1000 per 1000
Above 35 Above 15
II. Second Stage
51.3 19.1
Angola 22.3
Afganistan 50.2
48.5 18.1
Ethiopia 47.5 14.6
Dem. Rep. of Congo (Zaire)
45.4 15.4
Nigeria 11.8
44.5
Kenya 40.9 7.6
Pakistan
36.5 11.4
Bangladesh
Above 20 Below 15
III. Third Stage 6
33.0
Paraguay 31.2 8.8
South Africa
29.3 7.2
Egypt 9.2
29.1
India
27.7 4.8
Mexico
24.7 8.4
Indonesia
24.6 7.3
Brazil
24.0 5.8
Colombia
20.7 5.4
Sri Lanka
20.4 7.7
Argentina
326 Population Geograpl1y
Below 15
Below 20
IV. Fourth Stage 7.2
18.5
China 7.9
New Zealand 17.3
8.8
15.9
United States 7.2
15.1
Canada 6.9
14.8
Australia 10.6
14.1
Sweden 10.9
13.5
United Kingdom 12.9
9.2
France 14.9
10.9
Russia 7.1
10.1
Japan 9.9
10.8
Germany 9.6
9.8
Italy
University Press, Oxford, 1996.
Source : World Resources, Oxford
transition. China
stable or category of demographic this stage when
this stage the population is either 1990s)has entered
recently (in
grows very slowly. Although population grows its birth rate and
and it succeeded in bringing down
slowly both in the first (high stationary) are the death rate drastically. Its achievements in the
the last (low stationery) stage, yet there its natural rate of increase to a level
contrastingly different situations. lowering of
product of very short span of
or of advanced countries in a
Whereas the slow growth of population product time is definitely appreciable.
stable population in the first stage is the
of high fertility rate and highslow mortality rate,
increase in Criticism
the stationary population or
population in the last stage of demographic
transition is the result of low fertility and Although the demographic transition
by the
low mortality rates. In the first stage
the rate theory has been appreciated widely
population
and about demographers, economists and
of fertility (birth rate) is highis high but geographers, it has been criticised on
many
stable, and mortality of the theory are
fluctuating while in the fourth stage, the grounds. Main shortcomings
given below :
mortality is low and stable and fertility is low transition theory is
but fluctuating. (1) The demographic
empirical observations in
In the low stationary stage the population based upon
is highly urbanized and
socio-economically the advanced countries of Europe,
is
advanced. In this stage the family size is usually America and Australia, and it
levels are obviously inductive in nature It would
small, tlhe literacy and educationalspecialised, necessarily not occur in future in the
high,the labour is much skilled and any
per capita income is high causing high and
living less developed countries without
of Europe,
standards. Developed countriesZealand, modification from its original pattern.
Anglo-America, Australia, New Japan, Loschky and Wilcox
(2) According to
Russia etc. are supposed to have
reached the
(1974) neither the theory is predictive
transition. sequential and
low stationary stage of demographic
Germany, Italy,
nor its stages are
Thus, United Kingdom, France, Sweden,
invitable.
Poland, Netherlands, Belgium, Ukraine, demographic transition
Republic, Russia, (3) The theory of form, provide an
Hungary, Czeck and Canada does not in its present
the study of
Spain etc. in Europe; United States
China in Asia; adequate framework for could hardly
Japan and
in Anglo America, Zealand contemporary societies. It
Australia and New are included in this
 Tleories of Pupulation 327

do so, it is mechanistic, and in addition

is besel by lo0 many apparent death rate. Actually, the sequential patterns and
temporal span of fertility and mortality have
deviations as well as najor gaps in varied considerably from one country to
essential information (Glass and another. Thus, however, not only the sequential
Eversley, 1965, 6). pattern but also temporal span were never the
(4) There is no typical of time, no typical same in the developed countries of the West and
lag in fertility and no typical level of the developing and least developed countries
urbanisation, literacy or wealth to of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
initiate fertility reduction (Jones, H. R.,
1983, 165). Demographic Transition in Developed
In spite of these shortcomings, the theory Countries
has provided an effective portrayal of the
world's demographic history at macro level of The countries of Anglo-America (U.S.A.
generalization. The demographic transition and Canada), Western Europe (Great Britain,
model does nelp in understanding the transition France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Iceland,
process for any country if the situational context Netherlands, Belgium, Italy etc.), Eastern Europe
is properlyunderstood. This theory could be of (including Russia) and Australia, New Zealand
value in the context of economic and social and Japan are regarded as developed countries.
planning in terms of development and These countries constitute the Firsi World. These
modernization. "Hence there is a need for a countries experienced the typical sequential
modified version of the demographic transition pattern of fertility and mortality as visualized
theory which postulates growth rate rather in the demographic transition model. In West
than 'growth stages/phases' based on the European countries and Anglo-America, the
demographic, social-economic parameters so demographic transition was completed during
that it could be meaningful in the formulation 1860-1920 when the countries of Asia (except
and implementation of natioanl and regioal Japan), Africa and Latin America still remained
development plans" (Singh L. R., 2003, 165-66). in the first stage.
In the countries of the First World, the
State of Demographic Transition in demographic transformation was associated
Developed and Developing Countries with the technological advancement and socio
economic transformation and the fertility levels
were never very high.
The demographic transition is regarded In the East European countries, known as
as the most significant, and the best recorded the Second World countries, the demographic
historic event of modern demographic history. transition period began in the first or second
According to Bogue (1969, 53), "it is based upon decades of twentieth century. It is noteworthy
the theory of demographic regulation which that these countries never experienced such
asserts that man is able to fore see demographic explosive stage of population growth as
catastrophe before it arrives and is able to take
adaptive action long before nature forces the visualized in the demographic transition model.
In these countries the time span between the
same upon him." G.T. Trewartha (1969, 44) fertility and mortality decline was relatively
mentions that the concept of demographic short and they experienced only moderate
transition organizes the variety of population population growth.
data into an orderly and coherent pattern with
a view to integrating the spatial processes of Japan, the only developed country of Asia,
change and the dimensions of time. also followed the West European pattern and
entered the second stage of demographic
There is no sufficient evidence to suggest transition (moderate population growth) inthe
that all the countries passing through the 4th decade of twentieth century. The U.S.S.R.
demographic transition had a common entered in this group after 1940. Both these
similarity in the trends from high birth rate countries entered the last stage between 1950
and high death rate to low birth rate and low and 1960.
328 Population Geograpl1y
It is quite clear from albove statements death rate below 15 per thousand.
some
that both the sequential pattern and the time Most of the countries of Africa and
Asia are included in the
span of demographictransition recorded by the countries of South
rate was above
countries of the Second World (East European group of countries where birth above 15 per
countries) were very much different from the 35 per thousand and death rate
Nigeria,
thousand. Angola, Kenya, Ethiopea,(Zaire)
experience of the First World countries. In the Republic of Congo in
Second World countries,neither there occurred and Democratic
and
a population explosion nor the transition Africa, and Afghanistan, Pakistan
prolonged to a country and the transition was Bangladesh etc. in Asia are in the second stage
was
completed within 30 to 40 years. Perhaps itState of demographic transition.
possible because both the Church and the Actually, the demographic transition
did not appose to the deliberate measures of model is solely based upon empirical
controlling the family size. observations in West Europe, Anglo-America
obviously
and Australia and the theory is
countries of North
Demographic Transition in Developing inductive in nature. The
Countries West Europe,Anglo-America and Australiaare
industrialised and urbanised
characterised by
All the countries of Asia (except only society with high literacy, high income and high
Japan), Africa and Latin America constitute the standard of living. The condition of developing
America
Third World. These countries are grouped under countries of Asia, Africa and Latindeveloped
developing countries. The experience of have been different from those of
of the West
countries. The developed countriesaccelerated
developing countries is very much different experienced a concentrated and
from those of developed countries. The countries
with relatively small size (both in area and fertility decline. But in the case of most of the
population) were beginner to experience the developing countries the pace of modernization
sign of the second stage of population explosion. decline slowly
is very slow and fertility tends tothinkers
optimistic believe
Amongst those countries, Surinamne was the or very slowly. Some demographic
first that entered the second stage of in the universality of the
transition and assert that fertility regulation
demographictransition in early 1930s. Likewise
a number of smaller countries of Latin America, can be achieved in case of developing countries
Asia and Africa also entered the second stage as well. The experience of China in recent has
during 1930-40. Some big countries of Asia proved this optimistic idea.
including China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and It is seen that the medicines and public
Bangladesh could entered the second stage of health technology imported by developing and
demographic transition after 1950. even least developed countries of the world has
China, the largest populated country of drastically reduced the mortality rates but
there has been no socio-economic changes
the world, crossing over the third stage entered
the fourth stage of demographic transition in required for promoting the reduction in fertility
1990s. Now it is included under the group of
rate. In such conditions the speed of promotion
countries under fourth stage. During 1990-95 of these countries from one demographic stage
China's birth rate and death rate were 18.5 and to the other is generally different and relatively
7.2 per 1000 persons respectively. slow than those of European and American
India, Indonesia and Sri Lanka in Asia countries.
were in the third stage where birth rate was and
recorded between 20 and 33 per thousand and 4. Rostow's Stages of Economic
death rate between 5 and 10 per thousand. Population Growth
Likewise Brazil, Paraguay, Mexico, Colombia economist of
and Argentina in Latin America and South W.W. Rostow, an eminent
of
Africa in Africa were categorized in the same twentieth century propounded his theory
stages of
dealing with the
group of countries. These countries also economic growth
"The Stages of
possessed birth rate above 20 per thousand and economic growth. His work