11-Dec-20

TRAVEL DEMAND
MODELLING

KIA 4015: WEEK 8

FOUR STEP TRAVEL DEMAND

MODEL (FSTDM)

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DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
• Autos per household
• Income level
• Household size

NETWORK DATA

• Highway network

• Transit network

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URBAN TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING PROCESS
 Consists of 9 steps
1. Coding and Zoning
2. Inventory Studies
3. Travel Studies
4. Forecasts for the
Horizontal Year
5. Trip Generation Analysis
6. Trip Distribution Analysis
7. Modal Split Analysis
8. Network Assignment
Analysis
9. Evaluation

1. CODING AND ZONING -

DEFINING THE STUDY AREA
3 Basic Types
• Regional
• Statewide or a large metro area
• Used to predict larger patterns of traffic distribution,
growth, and emissions
• Corridor
• Major facility such as a expressway, arterial, or
transit line
• Used to evaluate traffic
• Site or Project
• Proposed development or small scale change
(i.e. intersection improvement)
• Used to evaluate traffic impact

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1. CODING AND ZONING -

ESTABLISH THE NETWORK
Roads are represented by a series of links & nodes

Node
Link

Links are defined by speed and capacity

Turns are allowed at nodes

1. CODING AND ZONING -

ESTABLISH THE NETWORK
• Typically only main roads and intersections are included
• Even collector roads are often excluded
• This practice is becoming less common as the processing
power of computers has increased

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1. CODING AND ZONING - CREATING ZONES

• Create Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
• Uniform land use
• Bounded by major roads
• Typically small in size (about the
size of a few neighborhood blocks)

1. CODING AND ZONING

• Urban area are divided into zone
• Each is given a number (e.g Zone 1, Zone 2,…..etc.)
• Network is coded as a series of links
• Link begins and ends at a node

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LINK-NODE MAP FOR HIGHWAY

SYSTEM
 Link-node maps are the starting point for the 4-step
transportation demand forecasting process

GRAPHICAL WAY OF UNDERSTANDING

THE 4-STEP DEMAND FORECASTING
PROCESS

200 trips from

zone 46 to
zone 29
1000 trips
attracted
1000 trips
generated

70% this route

25% this route Auto total: 95% Public transit: 5%

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DEMOGRAPHICS AND TRIP MAKING FACTORS

AFFECTED BY LAND USE

The land use pattern may

affect:
• Car ownership rates
• Household size and
composition
• Number of daily trips
• Mode of trips
• Length of trips

2. INVENTORY STUDIES
Each zone is classified according to
• Land use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial)
• Land use & Socio-economic characteristics of population
• Link capacity, Link volume, Link travel time

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3. TRAVEL STUDIES
• Origin-Destination Survey (O-D Survey)
• Household characteristics
• no. of persons who live there
• nos. of cars
• occupation of the head
• income etc.

• Location of the origin and destination of the trip

(where trips begin & end)
• Time at trip started & ended (when trips begin &
end)
• Mode & route of travel
• Purpose of trip

Origin-Destination Data:
• O-D Survey
Technique
• Home
interviews
• Telephone
interviews
• On-board transit
surveys
• Mailed
questionnaires
• Pick-up postal
cards

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4. FORECASTS FOR THE

HORIZONTAL YEAR
• Estimation for Design
Year
• Population
• Employment
• Land use
• Economic & Social
Activity

5. TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS

Purpose
 To develop equations Oi , Dj
(the trip ends of a particular trip type generated by each zone
based on land use)

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TRIP GENERATION QUESTIONS

• How much do people use the transport

system?

• Why do people use the transport

system?

• Where can different types of activities be

satisfied?

TRIP GENERATION:
TRIP PURPOSE

• Often separate predictions are mode for different type of trips

since travel behavior depends on trip purpose

• In other words different models must be developed for each

trip type

• The category of trip types commonly used include

• Work trips
• School trips
• Shopping trips
• Recreational trips

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TRIP GENERATION:
WHAT IS PREDICTED?
Trip generation models predict so called TRIP ENDS for each
zone

The trip ends maybe classified as either

• ORIGINS and DESTINATIONS (O-D)

or

• PRODUCTIONS and ATTRACTIONS

The two sets of terms sound similar but there is a technical

difference

ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS

Residential
1

Non-residential
8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to Non-residential
go to work in Zone 8
Residential
This results in 2 trip ends:
• One Origin for Zone 1
• One Destination for Zone 8
Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
the evening to go to home to Zone 1 Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

This results in another 2 trip ends: Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (1 O, 1 D)

• One Destination for Zone 1
• One Origin for Zone 8

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PRODUCTIONS AND
ATTRACTIONS
Residential
1

Non-residential
8
A worker leaves Zone 1 in the morning to Non-residential
go to work in Zone 8
Residential
This results in 2 trip ends:
• One Production for Zone 1
• One Attraction for Zone 8
Total Number of Trip Ends
When that same worker leaves Zone 8 in
Zone 1: 2 Trip Ends (2 Productions)
the evening to go to home to Zone 1
Zone 8: 2 Trip Ends (2 Attractions)
This results in another 2 trip ends:
• One Production for Zone 1
• One Attraction for Zone 8

ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS??

PRODUCTIONS AND ATTRACTIONS??

Based on the convention of trip generation models

Origins and Destinations are defined in terms of the direction of the trip

Productions and Attractions are defined by the land use

Residential Land use PRODUCES trip ends

Non-residential land use ATTRACTS trip ends

This is a useful distinction because of how trip generation models are

typically developed

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TRIP GENERATION

Done separately for each trip purpose

Three main methods:
a. Multiple linear regression
b. Trip rate
c. Category analysis

MULTIPLE LINEAR
REGRESSION
The trip generation model typically can take the form of :

No. of trips = Function (pop, income, auto ownership rates)

The model is developed and calibrated using BASE year data

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TRIP GENERATION BY
MULTIPLE REGRESSION, E.G.:
Home-to-work trips (R = 0.99)
Oi = -43.6 + 0.097 Population + .773 Employed
Residents - 351 Number of Households + .504 Num
Cars

Trips to shopping (R = 0.95)

Oi = -17.9 + 1.19 Area Res. Land + .266 Number of
Cars

Light Commercial Vehicle Trips:

Oi = 75.9 + .367Number HHs + .267 Total Empl -.339
Office Empl - .0188 Industrial Empl

TRIP RATE ANALYSIS METHOD

Trip-Rate Analysis
Trip rate is estimated on characteristics of the trip
generators with in the zone. Production rates are
determined using the characteristics of the residential
land uses and attraction rates using the characteristics of
the nonresidential land uses

Example

The characteristics of the trip generator is given in 1000 SQ. FT.

And the trip generation rate for each generator is given as TRIPS PER 1000 SQ. FT.

For example
Residential: Total 1000 Sq. Ft. = 2744 1000 sq. ft., Trip Gen. Rate = 2.4 trips/1000 sq.ft
TOTAL NO. of TRIP from residential land use = 2744*2.4 = 6586 Trips

This method of trip generation is often used to do site impact studies

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TRIP RATE
Eg : Trip generation rates

29

CATEGORY ANALYSIS
• Extension of simple trip-rate model
• Trip rate associated with each type of household (or other
attributes) are estimated by statistical methods
• One way of presenting the trip generation model developed
from a survey is as a cross-classification table

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TRIP GENERATION BY
CATEGORY ANALYSIS(CROSS-CLASSIFICATION
ANALYSIS)
(Groups individual HHs according to common
socioeconomic characteristics)

HB Trip Production example

Workers Household size

/HH
1 2 3 4
1 1.418 1.413 1.550 1.655
2 2.855 2.661 2.693

3 3.891 4.154

TRIP GENERATION
BASE YEAR DEMOGRAPHICS

Number of Trips in Target Year for Each HH Type

Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 60 420 460 700

1 300 900 1100 790

2+ 180 680 590 1660

Low Density 0 50 250 500 740

1 190 700 600 840

2+ 230 390 640 90

Number of Trips = trip rate*no. of HH = 0.6 * 100 = 60 Total trip = 13,080

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TRIP GENERATION
DEVELOPING AND USING THE
MODEL

Survey Base Year

Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Estimated
Predicted
Target year Calibrated
Target year
socio-economic, Model
Relating trip making No. of Trips
land use data
to socio-economic
and land use data

17
11-Dec-20

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SOME SOFTWARES
 EMME 4
 Trans Cad
 VISUM
 SIDRA

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 11-Dec-20

Malaysian Trip Generation Manual (MTGM)

• MTGM has gone through 4 Phases since 1995 until 2010.
• Relevant reports on current and previous MTGMs obtained from Pusat Rujukan
Jalan Negara.
• Certain information will still need to be obtained from the web portal of MTGM2010.

Phase I MTGM Phase II MTGM Phase III MTGM Phase IV MTGM

Study • Pilot study by Ranhill • Study by Redhawi- • Study by xxx in • Study by xxx in
Team & Bersekutu & Wilbur Mustafa Consulting 2005 2007
Year Smith Assoc in 1995 Sdn Bhd, with
and completed in 1997 Perunding Atur Sdn
Bhd and Universiti
Sains Malaysia (USM)
in 2001
Objective/ • To establish • To cater for all the short • To institutionalise • To further improve
Aim of the procedures and comings of the pilot the trip generation the accuracy of the
Study methodologies for trip study study trip generation
generation studies prediction
No. of • 255 sites (KL, Klang • 306 additional sites • 315 additional • 355 sites were
Sites Valley, Kuching, Kuala (Klang Valley, Penang sites surveyed surveyed including
Terengganu, Penang) and Kuala Terengganu) according to 77 resurveyed
• Land Use Categories previous study sites
(residential, methodology
institutional, religious,
educational, burial
ground, community
facilities/recreation,
commercial, industrial,
agriculture/forestry/fish
eries, and terminals)
13

Other Manuals
• Prior to MTGM, practitioners usually refer to US ITE Trip Generation
Manual, to predict trip generation from a certain land use to be
developed in a certain locality, in conducting traffic impact assessment
(TIA) for a proposed development in that land parcel.
1. The ITE Trip Generation Manual
2. Guide to Generating Trip Generations (Australia)
3. Trip Rate Information Computer System (TRICS) – UK

15

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Trip
Generation Descriptions
Manuals
1 2.1.2
The Best •Practices
ITE Trip & Benchmarking
Started in 1960s, (cont.)
now in 10th Edition, in print and web-based version.
. Generation • Enables development of estimates of motor vehicle, pedestrian, transit user, bicyclist,
Manual and truck trips, generated by a land use based on its characteristics and setting.
• The 10th edition includes:
 Vol. 1 Desk Reference - a detailed description of new urban & person-based trip
data, key instructional information, sample plots, and identifies significant changes
from the previous edition.
 Vol. 2 Land Use Data Plots - a complete set of land use descriptions & plots for
all land use/time period/independent variable combinations (Electronic version as
part of the bundle)
 The 3rd Edition Handbook - new guidance on proper techniques for estimating
person & vehicular trip generation rates; updates guidance for the evaluation of
mixed-use developments and the establishment of local trip generation rates; and
expands pass-by trip and truck trip generation data.
 Web-based App - allows electronic access to the entire trip generation dataset
with numerous filtering capabilities of including site setting (i.e., rural, suburban,
urban), geography, age of data, development size, and trip type (person or
vehicular trips).
 The Supplement - Provides text, tables, data plots, and statistics that describe the
current state-of-the practice understanding between walk, bicycle, transit, motor
vehicle, and truck trip generation and characteristics associated with an individual
development site or land use. (Details in Appendix A – Inception Report)

16

Trip
Generation Descriptions
Manuals
2 Guide to • Provide guidance on trip generation determination from various land use.
. Generating • Present cases of land uses types and gave the average trip generation rates to be
Trip applied based on specific parameter/variable chosen.
Generation • No graphs showing correlation between trip generation against any parameter/variable
s (Australia) for any given land use.
• When a particular land use is not available or not covered by the document, the traffic
practitioner needs to do a trip generation study on a similar land use site for their
intended purpose.

18

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Trip
Generation Descriptions
Manuals
3 Trip Rate • In UK and Ireland, national standard system of trip generation and analysis, and is
. Information used as an integral and essential part of the transport assessment process.
Computer • Database that contains traffic count information for over 2,079 sites in 4,616 days of
System survey counts and 94 land use sub-categories.
(TRICS) – • The database continuously increased with 337 member organisations with database
UK now contains 7,310 survey count days.
• Most land-use categories have one to four variables, or parameter, by which trip rates
can be calculated
• Each TRICS development site record contains the following information: Site Details,
Development Details, Parking Details and Survey Count Details.
• land use categories (Retail; Employment; Residential; Education; Health; Hotel, Food
and Drink; Leisure; Marinas; Golf; Tourist Attractions; Car Boot Sales; Civic Amenity
Sites; Petrol Filling Stations; Car Showrooms; Vehicle Services; Mixed)

19

Trip
Generation Descriptions
Manuals
3 Trip Rate
. Information
Computer
System
(TRICS) –
UK

20

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 11-Dec-20

MALAYSIAN TRIP
GENERATION MANUAL
• The Trip Generation Manual enables practitioners to
predict the number of vehicle trips generated by a specific
land use during the planning stage of development or
expansion of an existing development.
• The generated trip equations or rates are proportioned
into trip attraction (IN) and trip production (OUT).
• In many instances, these extra trips adversely impact
existing levels of traffic demand, normally quantified in
terms of Level of Service (LOS).

• The Manual is therefore an important document for preparing

and reviewing traffic impact assessment or small area traffic
studies which are often required by government agencies as part
of the planning approval processes.
• The trip generation forecasting step forms one small step in
such traffic studies.
• It has direct impacts on the internal traffic circulation, roadway
capacity, signalized junction operations and, at times, funding of
off-site improvements.
• The road authority can impose specified LOS requirements on
the development proponent to maintain a designated LOS by
upgrading existing junctions or road link.
• If the development proponent lacks the financial resources for
junction or road link upgrades, then the proposed level of
development can be scaled down or reduced accordingly to
commensurate with the generated trips.
• It is therefore important to accurately predict the number of trips
expected from a planned development.

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SEVERAL TERMS
• Trip - A journey that a person or vehicle undertakes and which
begins at one location and ends at another. Trips are one way unless
otherwise stated. For example, a mother who drives her child to
school and then drives home is making two trips: (i) a trip from
home to the school; and (ii) a trip from the school back home.

• Trip-End — The start or end of a trip is referred to as a trip-end. Each

trip has two trip-ends (an origin and a destination).

• In this study, the counted number of vehicles entering or departing

from a site actually reflects the number of trip-ends.

• For the purpose of a site-specific traffic impact study, the distinction

between trip and trip-ends is not important. For area-wide traffic
studies however, the distinction between a trip and a trip-end is very
important.

• Trip Generation - The total number of inbound and outbound vehicle trip-
ends from a site over a given period. The word "generation” does not
mean that the trip is outbound, as the non-technical use of the word
would suggest. Nor does the word mean that the land use is the source of
the trips or attracts the trips.

• Peak Hour - The highest one-hour flow of traffic during a defined period
of time. This hour is defined by the highest volume of consecutive counts
(for instance 7.30 to 8.30 am) rather than the highest clock-hour total
(7.00 to 8.00 am).

• Commuter Peak - The period during the day when commuter traffic is
highest.
• In this Manual, the morning peak has been defined as the period from
7.00 am to 10.00 am while the highest one-hour flow in that period is the
AM Peak Hour of Commuter.
• The afternoon commuter peak period takes place between 4.00 pm to
7.00 pm while the highest one-hour flow within that period is the PM Peak
Hour of Commuter.
• These periods correspond to the time of day when traffic flows on a street
adjacent to a survey site are typically highest. Sometimes, these are
referred to as the peak periods of the adjacent street traffic.

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 11-Dec-20

Generator Peak - The highest one-hour of traffic flow during the day for
traffic entering and exiting a site. This may or may not correspond with the
peak period of the adjacent street. The AM Peak Hour of Generator is defined
as the highest one-hour traffic generation for the proposed project before
noon; while the PM Peak Hour of Generator is the highest one-hour of traffic
generation in the afternoon.

PCU - A passenger car unit (pcu) is a measure of the impact of a vehicle on

the capacity of a road, measured as an equivalent number of passenger
cars.
The term passenger car equivalent (pce) is the American usage. Because the
mix of vehicles from site to site varies widely, vehicle flows are often
converted to pcu to provide consistency for analysis.

Vehicle Type PCU

Car 1.00
Taxi 1.00
Van 1.00
Light Lorry (2 axles) 1.75
Heavy Lorry (> 2 axles) 2.25
Bus 2.25
Motorcycle 0.33

LANDUSE CATEGORIES IN MTGM

2010 02
INSTITUTIONAL
02 01 GOVERNMENT/STATUTORY
MAJOR MINOR UMTGROUP DESCRIPTION OF ORGANIZATION OFFICES
02 01 01 Government Office Complex
GROUP GROUP LAND USE
02 02 COURTS
02 02 01 Syariah Court
01 RESIDENTIAL
02 02 02 Magistrate Court
01 01 HOUSING 02 02 03 Session Court
02 02 04 High Court
01 01 01 Terrace/Link 02 02 05 Court Complexes
01 01 02 Town House
02 03 MEDICAL SERVICES
01 01 03 Semi-Detached
01 01 04 02 03 01 General/Referral Hospital
Detached
02 03 02 Specialist Hospital
01 01 05 Flat
02 03 03 Nucleus Hospital
01 01 06 Apartment 02 03 04 District Hospital
01 01 07 Condominium 02 03 05 Polyclinic
01 01 20 Low Cost Housing 02 03 06 Governmenf Health Centre
01 01 25 Site and Service (resettlement) 02 03 10 Private Hospital
01 01 30 Workers’ Hostel 02 03 11 Nursing Home
01 01 40 RetiremenI Village 02 03 12 Clinic

01 01 50 Institutional Quarters 02 04 MILITARY BASES

02 04 01 Army Base
02 04 02 Air Force Base
02 04 03 Naval Base
02 05 EMERGENCY SERVICES
02 05 01 Police Station
02 05 02 Police Field Force
02 05 03 Fire Station
02 06 RESEARCH INSTITUTION
02 06 01 Research Centre
02 06 02 Training Centre
02 07 PUBLIC AND SOCIAL SERVICE
02 07 01 Public Library
02 07 02 Welfare Homes
02 07 03 Old Folks' Home

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 11-Dec-20

02 02 08 02 08 00 PRISON AND DETENTION CENTRES

02 09 UTILITIES

02 09 01 Telecommunication
02 09 02 Power Supply
02 09 03 Gas Distñbution Centre
02 09 04 Environmental Services

03 RELIGIOUS
03 01 PLACES OF WORSHIP
03 01 01 Mosque
03 01 02 Surau/Madrasah
03 01 10 Church
03 01 20 Temple (Buddhisf,Taoist,Hindu,Sikh)
03 01 30 Other Religious Centre

04 EDUCATIONAL
04 01 TERTIARY EDUCATION

04 01 01 University/College
04 01 02 Private University/College
04 01 03 Polytechnic
04 01 04 Training Institute
04 01 05 Teachers' College
04 02 SECONDARY/PRIMARY
04 02 01 Primary School
04 02 02 Secondary School
04 02 03 Kindergarten
04 02 04 Private -- Primary and Secondary with Boarding
04 02 05 Private -- Primary and Secondary without Boarding
04 02 06 Private — Combined Kindergarten, Primary and Secondary
(without Boarding)

05 Burial
CEMETERY/MEMORIAL PARK CREMATORIUM
05 01 05 01 00
05 02 05 02 00

06 COMMUNITY FACILITIES AND RECREATION

06 01 OPEN SPACE/PARKS

06 01 01 National/State Parks
06 01 02 Public Parks
06 01 03 Botanial Parks
06 01 04 Open Space
06 01 05 Children’s Playground
06 01 06 Recreational Forest
06 02 060200 PUBLIC BEACH

0603 SPORT FACILITIES

06 03 01 Sport Complex
06 03 03 Clubs
06 03 04 Tennis Centre
06 03 05 Squash Centre
06 03 06 Badminton Halls
06 03 07 Public Swimming Pool
06 03 10 Golf Course
06 03 20 Stadium

06 06 03 SPORT FACILITIES
06 03 30 Polo Ground
06 03 40 Horse Race Track
06 03 41 Race Track
06 04 CULTURAL CENTRE
06 04 01 Open Air Theatre
06 04 02 Cutlural Centre
06 05 THEUE PARK

06 05 01 Amusement Park
06 05 02 Zoo
06 05 03 Aquânùm
06 05 04 Bird Park
06 05 05 Science Park
06 06 COMMUNITY FACILITIES

06 06 01 Day-care Centre/Nursery
06 06 02 Community Hall

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 11-Dec-20

07 COMMERCIAL
07 01 OFFICE COMPLEX
07 01 01 General Office
07 01 02 Finance & Banking
07 01 03 Business & Professional Services INDUSTRIAL
07 01 04 Share Broker/Security Services 08
07 01 05 Services/Insurances
08 01 LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
07 02 SHOPHOUSE BUILDINGS
08 01 01 Light Industrial Area
07 02 01 Shop House
07 02 02 Shop Office 08 01 02 Detached Factory
08 01 03 Terrace Factory
07 03 RETAIL PREMISES
08 01 04 Semi-Detached Factory
07 03 01 Shopping Complex
08 01 05 Flatted Factory
07 03 10 Supermarket
07 03 11 Emporium 0802 SMALL & MEDIUM INDUSTRIAL
07 03 20 Discount Store/Hyper Market
07 03 30 Convenience Store 08 02 01 Small and Medium Industrial Area
07 04 NOTEL 08 02 02 Detached Factory
08 02 03 Terrace Factory
07 04 01 General Hotel
07 04 10 Beach Resort Hotel 08 02 04 Semi-Detached Factory
07 04 11 Hill Resort Hotel 08 02 05 Flatted Factory
07 04 20 Condo/Apartment Hotel
08 03 HEAW INDUSTRIAL
07 05 RESTAURANT
07 05 01 General Restaurant
08 03 01 Heavy Induslrial Area
07 05 10 Fast Food Restaurant 08 03 02 Detached Factory
07 05 11 Drive-In Restaurant
08 04 08 04 00 HIGH-TECH
07 05 20 Coffee Shop
07 05 30 Pubs 08 05 08 05 00 SERVICE WORKSHOP
07 06 COMMERCIAL ENTERTAINMENT 08 06 08 06 00 FREE TRADE ZONE
07 06 01 Discotheque 08 10 WAREHOUSING
07 06 02 Karaoke Lounge
07 06 10 Cinema 08 10 01 General Warehousing
07 06 11 Cineplex 08 10 02 Bonded Warehousing
07 06 20 Video Arcade
07 06 30 Snooker Parlor

07 07 PETROL STATION
07 07 01 Petrol Service Station
07 07 02 Petrol Station with Convenience store

09 AGRICULTURE/FORESTV/FISHERY
09 01 AGRICULTURE

09 01 01 Plant Nursery 10 10 03 AIR TERMINAL

09 01 02 Horticulture Centre 10 03 01 International/Regional Airport
09 01 03 General Agriculture 10 03 02 Domestic Airport
09 01 04 Research Institute 10 03 03 Air Landing Strips
0902 FORESTRY 10 03 04 Cify Air Terminal
10 04 ROAD TERMINAL
09 02 01 Forestry Research Institute
09 03 FISHERIES 10 04 01 Truck Terminal
10 04 02 Taxi/Bus Terminal
09 03 01 Fisheries Research Institute 10 04 03 Bus Depot
10 04 04 Trishaw Terminal
10 05 RAIL TERMINAL
10 05 01 Railway Station/Passenger Terminal
10 05 02 Urban Mass Rapid Transit Terminal
10 TERMINALS 10 05 03 Integrated Rail and Rapid Transit Station

10 01 WATER TERMINALS 10 06 OFF-STREET CAR PARK

10 01 01 Waterport/Marine Terminal (Port) 10 06 01 Park & Ride Station

10 01 02 Marina 10 06 02 Multi-storey Car Park
10 01 03 Jetty 10 06 03 Open Car Park
10 01 04 Ferry Terminal
10 02 10 02 00 INLANDPORT

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 11-Dec-20

• Simple analysis summary sheets for each land use category surveyed
have been developed and included in the Manual. Figure 1-2 illustrates
the format of these summary sheets.
• For each sub-category, 5 graphs are presented in three pages, which
display information on the AM Peak Hour of Commuter, PM Peak Hour of
Commuter, AM Peak Hour of Generator, PM Peak Hour of Generator and
Daily Trip Generation.
• For each graph, the following details are shown:
• A plot of surveyed data points.
• A best fitted linear regression equation.
• A weighted average linear rate equation.

• At the bottom of each graph, two tables are shown. The first table
describes the number of sites and percentage of inbound and outbound
trips, average trip rate, minimum and maximum trip rates, standard
deviation for the data, regression equation and the R2 value for the
equation (level of fit).
• Recommendation on the usage of rates or equations is also presented in
this table. When less than three data points are available, no standard
deviation and no R2 value is calculated or shown. Also, if the slope of the
regression line is negative or R2 is less than 0.50, the regression equation
is not shown.

The second table lists the vehicle types and the composition of each vehicle
types, PCU factor used for each vehicle type and the calculated PCU
conversion factor for the surveyed land use.

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11-Dec-20

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 11-Dec-20

PROCEDURES FOR APPLYING TRIP

GENERATION RATES
The basic procedures for estimating trip generation consist of
the following six steps:

1. Identify the appropriate land use category(s).

2. Select the most appropriate independent variable predictor
of trip generations for that land use.
3. Find the relevant trip generation rates or equations from the
AM Commuter, PM Commuter, AM Generator, PM Generator
and Daily choices.
4. Multiply the trip rate with the independent variable (for
example, square foot of floor area, number of employees,
dwelling units, and others) or plug-in values to the trip rate
equation.
5. Convert the estimated vehicle trips into PCU trips.

IDENTIFICATION OF LAND USE

CATEGORY
• The first step in estimating trip generation is to identify the
most appropriate land use category which describes the
proposed development.
• As shown in Section 3 of the manual, approximately 120
individual land use categories have been identified for trip
generation forecasting purposes.
• For example, a 500 unit link house development project
would be identified as a residential land use (category 01-
01-01).
• A complete description of each individual land use
category is available in Section 4 of the manual.

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 11-Dec-20

SELECTION OF INDEPENDENT
VARIABLE
• For some land use, the Manual lists more than one independent variable
in predicting trip generation.
• For example, square footage, number of occupied beds and employees
are listed for hospitals. The best variable is identified in the Manual for
each land use by looking at the R2 value or standard deviation.
• In this respect, the user has to exercise some judgment. Sometimes the
proposed development is only described in terms of acreage or square
footage and not in terms of number of employees or other preferred
variable.
• Hence, it is best to use an already available variable rather than to
inaccurately convert the gross square footage to number of employees
or some other preferred variables.
• Independent variables with high R2 values or low standard deviation
values relative to the mean rate generally are the best variables to select
for estimating trips.
• For some land use such as residential, only a single variable is listed
(number of dwelling units) and therefore the selection of the independent
variable in such a case is very straightforward.

DETERMINATION OF TRIP
RATE/EQUATION
• The third step in the process is to identify the relevant trip
generation average rate or equation from the Trip Generation
Manual.
• Before using the appropriate trip rate or equation, a user needs to
identify the period of time that is to be used for analysis.
• Depending on the purpose of analysis, the Manual provides five
options for use, namely the AM commuter, the AM generator, the PM
commuter, the PM generator and the daily trip generation figures.
• For each land use category, the average trip rate and regression
equation along with the recommendations on which approach to be
taken, are presented in the Manual.
• For example, for the case of terrace link house developments, the
Manual lists an average trip rate of 8.85 vehicle trips daily per
residential unit and an equation of T = 8.0874x where x is the number
of dwelling units.
• Since the R2 value of the regression equation is 0.89, which is higher
than 0.5, the trip equation is generally adopted.

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CALCULATION OF VEHICLE
TRIPS
• Applying the above trip rates to 500 dwelling units yields estimates of
8.85 x 500 or 4,425 daily trips. However, based on the regression
equation, the value calculated is 8.0874 x 500 on 4,044 daily trips.
Following the recommendation in the Manual, the trip equation should be
selected.
• In the above example, the generated trips calculated from the trip
equation and average rate do not differ significantly. In some instances,
in graphs where trip equations are available, there is a major difference
between trips obtained using average rate and regression equation for
small values of independent variables.
• This is due to the presence of large y-intercept (positive value) or
constant in the regression equation.
• In cases as such, users can choose to adopt the average trip rate but
only up to the point when the value of trips calculated using average rate
and regression equation are equivalent, beyond which the trip equation
must be used.

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CONVERSION TO PCU
The fifth step consists of converting the estimated 4,044 daily
vehicle trips into the equivalent passenger car units (PCU) by
multiplying it with a PCU factor and applying this factor to
the vehicle trip rate. The Manual provides an average mix of
vehicle types for each land use and provisional PCU factors.
For link house daily trips, the values used are as shown
below:
PCU
Traffic Provisional Conversion
Access Mode Percent PCU Factor

Car/ Taxi 59.99 1.00 0.60

Motorcycle 30.45 0.33 0.10
Light Lorry (2 axles) 7.83 1.75 0.14
Heavy Lorry (> 2 axles) 0.31 2.25 0.01
Bus 1.42 2.25 0.03

Total 100.00 0.88

• The Manual also gives a provisional conversion factor for

converting vehicle trips to PCU trips.
• In the above example, the factor is 0.88 PCU’s per vehicle trip for
link house daily traffic.
• Application of this provisional factor yields 0.88 x 4,044 or 3,559
PCU trips.
• If different PCU rates are adopted in the future, the calculation of
the overall PCU conversion factor can be done by multiplying the
vehicle mix percentage with the PCU rate for each vehicle type,
then add up all these results together and divide by 100.
PCU
Traffic Provisional Conversion
Access Mode Percent PCU Factor

Car/ Taxi 59.99 1.00 0.60

Motorcycle 30.45 0.33 0.10
Light Lorry (2 axles) 7.83 1.75 0.14
Heavy Lorry (> 2 axles) 0.31 2.25 0.01
Bus 1.42 2.25 0.03

Total 100.00 0.88

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THANK YOU

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