WATER Dilemmas:

The cascading impacts of water insecurity in a heating world

Photo: Nasima Khatun and her child represent thousands of climate vulnerable communities living
in the coastal belt of Bangladesh. Adding to their burden to cope with the impact of climate crisis,
a significant portion of their time and labour is spent fetching fresh water to meet their basic ne-
cessities. This photo highlights the gendered impact of the water crisis, as it is often women and
children who bear the burden of collecting water for their families.

Photo credit: Jahangir Alam/Oxfam in Bangladesh

OXFAM BRIEFING PAPER – AUGUST 2023

www.oxfam.org
 The climate crisis is, in essence, a water crisis. This briefing paper presents
findings from Oxfam’s recently commissioned research on climate
predictions for 2040 and 2050 in the Middle East, the Horn, East and
Central Africa, West Africa and Asia regions. Analyses show how
temperature increases will influence water insecurity in these regions and
the potential impacts on food security, spread of diseases and other factors.
This briefing paper also shows the severe under-investments by national
governments and donors in water, sanitation and hygiene systems, which
has critical implications not only for water security but also poverty and
inequality. Oxfam is calling for urgent action to increase investments in
sustainable, climate-adapted water management for the people who are
most at risk from the worsening climate crisis.

© Oxfam International August 2023

This paper was written by Padmini Iyer. Oxfam acknowledges the cooperation and
support of Saaf Consults B.V. (www.saafconsult.com), Ele Jan Saaf and Valerio
Nicolin in the production of this paper. It is part of a series of papers written to
inform public debate on development and humanitarian policy issues.

For further information on the issues raised in this paper please email
advocacy@oxfaminternational.org

This publication is copyright but the text may be used free of charge for the
purposes of advocacy, campaigning, education, and research, provided that the
source is acknowledged in full. The copyright holder requests that all such use be
registered with them for impact assessment purposes. For copying in any other
circumstances, or for re-use in other publications, or for translation or
adaptation, permission must be secured and a fee may be charged. Email
policyandpractice@oxfam.org.uk.

The information in this publication is correct at the time of going to press.

Published by Oxfam GB for Oxfam International in August 2023 DOI: 24.8.2023

Oxfam GB, Oxfam House, John Smith Drive, Cowley, Oxford, OX4 2JY, UK.

Cover photo: Jahangir Alam/Oxfam in Bangladesh

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SUMMARY
The climate crisis is a water crisis. As the world heats, increased evaporation leads to more moisture-
laden air, heavier storms and shifting patterns of rainfall. In a cruel twist, this increase in moisture will
also mean that more people will lack access to clean water, as predictable rainfall gives way to cycles
of drought and flooding, and disease-carrying insects move to new areas. The impact of these
changes will be greatest on women, who bear the responsibility for the management of water supply,
sanitation and health within the household. In many countries, decreasing water availability,
accessibility and sustainability – also referred to as ‘water insecurity’ or ‘water stress’ – is leading to
failed or delayed harvests, livestock losses, increasing poverty, growing conflict (at local and
geopolitical scales), increased risks of sexual and gender-based violence and forced migration of
households and communities.

The backdrop of this water crisis is a bleak climate injustice story. Rich polluting nations continue to
heat our planet, while the nations that are least responsible for global warming bear the brunt of its
consequences. Water insecurity is not only caused by climate change and its effects, but also by
countries and donors having grossly under invested in water management systems for decades. It is
vital that countries act now to take measures to prevent and mitigate the impacts of climate change
and also significantly increase their investments into water management for the long term.

This briefing paper reveals the water-critical scenarios facing 20 climate hotspot countries in four
regions of the world under the so-called ‘middle of the road’ scenario in which the global temperature
rises to 2.7°C by the end of the century. The regions covered by this paper are the Horn, East and
Central Africa (HECA), West Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Findings show that the climate crisis will
have dramatic effects on water insecurity through changes in temperature, precipitation, surface
runoff, river discharge, crop yields and disease burden – all of which will make life even more
precarious for people in marginalized or vulnerable contexts.

The paper describes how today’s water management systems are particularly underfunded in
these regions, and how the COVID-19 pandemic put them to a test. Water insecurity is not just driven
by climate change, but by countries and donors’ woeful spending on water management systems. The
paper builds Oxfam’s case that, with proper investment, countries will not only build water systems
that are more resilient to climate change, but also tackle hunger, poverty and inequality.

Oxfam calls on governments to cooperate urgently to:

• Drastically reduce emissions;

• Invest in water security and sustainable water management;

• Prioritise efforts to reach Sustainable Development Goal 6;

• Support those most at risk through early warning and anticipatory action;

• Compensate those most affected by the climate crisis; and

• Provide emergency assistance to save lives and support development.

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INTRODUCTION
The climate crisis is a water crisis. The world’s insatiable appetite to extract and burn fossil fuels
to fire their economies has resulted in carbon pollution that has created a global greenhouse
effect that is causing weather patterns to change (both in timing and intensity) across
geographies. Weather patterns are defined and influenced by many factors, but they are primarily
about the relationship between evaporation and precipitation. The impacts of the growing climate
crisis are far-ranging, but one of the main ways that people will experience – and are already
experiencing – climate change is through the lack of, or excesses of, water. 1

Water security definition: ‘the ca- Despite many areas of the world experiencing more, and
pacity of a population to safeguard more severe flooding, it is estimated that as the climate
sustainable access to adequate crisis deepens, people will have even less access to
quantities of acceptable quality wa- safe drinking water. Terrestrial water storage is
ter for sustaining livelihoods, hu- projected to drop; sea level rises will extend salinization
man wellbeing, and socioeconomic of groundwater and decrease freshwater availability for
development, for ensuring protec- humans and ecosystems in coastal areas; and higher
tion against water-borne pollution water temperatures and more frequent floods and
and water-related disasters, and for droughts will exacerbate water pollution. 2
preserving ecosystems in a climate Access to water is not only a fundamental human right
of peace and political stability’.1 (as highlighted in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6
on Clean Water and Sanitation), 3 but access to clean
water and sanitation is also key to attaining all of the other SDGs. Goals on peace, health,
education, gender equality, sustainable cities and economic growth all rely on people having
access to clean water. 4 If national governments, donors and civil society actors do not address
the drivers of water insecurity and go beyond direct water service provision, we risk failing all of
our development goals. Achieving SDG 6 will require significantly greater financial commitments
and investments in water security (see box for definition), as well as investments in sanitation and
hygiene, especially in the face of worsening socioeconomic and health inequities.
We are already witnessing the impact of decreasing water security in many low-income countries,
which is linked to negative outcomes in food security, health, living standards and peace. 5
Countries and regions with increasing water insecurity (or water stress) are witnessing failed or
delayed harvests, livestock losses, increasing poverty, growing conflict (at local and geopolitical
scales), increased demand in household care responsibilities for women and girls, and forced
displacement of individuals and households. This paper presents findings from Oxfam’s research
on the impacts of climate change on water security in 20 climate hotspots –where climate
projections show potentially devastating impacts on food security and the spread of diseases. It
demonstrates the urgent need for countries and donors to invest in water security and water,
sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services, to tackle the climate crisis and compensate the countries
that are on the frontline of the climate crisis.

METHODOLOGY
Oxfam commissioned research on the links between water security and climate change, and how
climate change-driven water insecurity may influence food security, human health and wellbeing in
the coming decades. 6
Using literature, secondary data, climate models and observations, the paper presents a range of
climate scenarios with expected changes in temperature and precipitation by the years 2040 and
2050. The paper shows how climate change in the Middle East, Horn, East and Central Africa
(HECA), West Africa and Asia regions may affect water security, food security and the spread of
disease. The climate projections presented in the paper are drawn from two main sources: the

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WGI) Interactive Atlas and the
Climate Impact Explorer (CIE) by Climate Analytics. 7 This data was complemented with a literature
review and interviews with experts on water security and climate change.
The countries covered by this analysis are a sample of countries where Oxfam works and that are at
high risk of climate change-induced water insecurity. Some are also classified as ‘fragile and
conflict-affected’, characterized by extreme and entrenched poverty, precarious livelihoods, forced
displacement, and low institutional capacity.
A key limitation of the study is that the analysis is based on global predictions and trends, and
therefore is not able to account for the different local and national contexts that may affect water
security in those five regions. As such, the findings presented here must be interpreted as indicative.

WATER SECURITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND

INEQUALITY
Access to water is a human right and indispensable for life and dignity. Yet as with the climate crisis,
inequality lies at the heart of water insecurity. Poverty and water security are closely interlinked at
the household, community and state levels. The world’s poorest countries tend to be water insecure
because they cannot afford the large investments required to achieve water security. 8 In some
countries, borderland and rural areas face water security issues both as a result of ecological
constraints but also due to historical marginalization and neglect from urban-focused central
governments. The poorest households tend to bear the burden of water scarcity as wealthier
households may be able to buy water and buffer against risks of water shortage.

Wealth and income inequality also intersects with gender, race, ethnicity and disability to produce
differential impacts of water security and access to WASH services. Longstanding evidence shows
that women and girls are disproportionately affected by water insecurity. In rural areas they may have
to walk long distances and to remote and unsafe areas to access water. In urban areas, the lack of
affordability of clean water has major health implications for children, and when children are sick,
women are typically tasked with taking care of them, at the expense of their own schooling or
employment. As they often have primary responsibility for household nutrition, women and girls’
access to water (or lack thereof) has crucial implications for safety, wellbeing and poverty; women
and girls are more likely to eat least and last when household food supplies are scarce and are more
at risk of gender-based violence as food insecurity worsens. The time spent collecting and storing
water and on other WASH-related domestic tasks increases the care workload and reduces women
and girls’ ability to access education, employment, leisure, and civic and political engagement
opportunities. 9 Evidence also shows that climate change-induced water stress can accelerate
gender-based violence against women and girls 10.

Many of the world’s climate hotspots are low-income countries that have contributed very little to
global carbon emissions, which have a direct and devastating impact on water security in those
countries. The G20 countries account for 73% of global carbon emissions (2021 data) – a level 45
times greater than the combined emissions from the 20 countries included in this analysis (which
account for 0.94%). 11 Low-income countries face a double burden of disease (predicted over the
next few decades) and water insecurity - even though they are typically the lowest carbon emitters. 12

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 Box 1: Water crisis in Kenya
Although Kenya is among the countries with the lowest carbon emissions, it is bearing the brunt of
climate change. For more than four years, parts of Kenya have experienced drought, which has
killed more than 2 million livestock, fundamental to livelihoods and resilience of communities. Rains
eventually came in March 2023 but were so heavy that they caused flooding, exacerbating an
already dire situation.
Ahmed Haji Mahamud, aged 47, who lives in Tula village, Wajir county, says: ‘I was living a good life
before the drought. The land had good rain and pasture. I would sell my livestock to provide for my
family and pay for my children’s education. After the drought, I was left stranded. Over the last 30
years, there used to be both dry and rainy seasons. We used to get rains every three months. But
now we only get one month of rain over a whole year and this is evidence of climate change in the
region.’ He said that when rains do finally come they can be very heavy, causing floods: ‘I would not
say heavy rains guarantee availability of food because they cause flooding and damage to farms.’

CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
In view of the fundamental ways in which the climate crisis will affect water availability,
accessibility and sustainability, understanding the interlinked impact of climate change and water
security is crucial. Oxfam’s research explored how the expected rise in global temperature and
change in precipitation will affect surface runoff, river discharge, populations exposed to
heatwave, food insecurity, displacement and disease diffusion in the years 2040 and 2050. The
research examined climate predictions in 20 countries across four regions (see Table 1). The 20
countries are in the bottom third of the Fragile States Index and the Notre Dame Global Adaptation
Initiative (ND-GAIN), which rank countries according to vulnerability and readiness to successfully
adapt.

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Table 1: Countries included in the analysis
Middle East Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen
Horn, East and Central Africa Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia,
Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda
West Africa Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Niger and
Nigeria
Asia Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal

The analysis explored the impact of climate change in the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)
scenarios 1, 2 and 5.
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), jointly developed by an international team of climate sci-
entists, economists and energy systems modellers, provide a toolkit for the climate change re-
search community to carry out multidisciplinary analysis. The SSPs describe the broad socioeco-
nomic trends that could shape future society and include five scenarios. These are: a world of
sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1); a ‘middle of the road’ world where trends
broadly follow their historical patterns (SSP2); a fragmented world of ‘resurgent nationalism’
(SSP3); a world of ever-increasing inequality (SSP4); and a world of rapid and unconstrained growth
in economic output and energy use (SSP5).
Of these five scenarios, SSP2 is said to be characteristic of current conditions, whereby social,
economic and technological changes do not shift markedly from historical patterns. Results
reported in this paper are for SSP2, the ‘middle of the road’ scenario (box 2). 13
In the SSP2 scenario, global CO2 emissions remain at around current levels, and the global
temperature rises by 2.7°C by the end of the century.

Box 2: Shared socioeconomic pathway 2: ‘middle of the road’ scenario

The world follows a path in which social, economic and technological trends do not shift markedly
from historical patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries
making relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Global and national
institutions work toward, but make slow progress in achieving, Sustainable Development Goals.
Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are some improvements and overall
the intensity of resource and energy use declines. Global population growth is moderate and levels
off in the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or improves only slowly, and
challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain. 14

According to research commissioned by Oxfam, in the SSP2 scenario, temperatures will increase by
2040 in all regions (see Table 2): by 1°C in Asia; by 1.4°C in HECA and in West Africa; and by 2°C in
the Middle East. Precipitation will also increase in all four regions, with the highest increases in
HECA and in West Africa (approximately 7% in both regions). While more precipitation may seem
like good news for water availability, the research shows that it will instead result in more surface
runoff in many areas. Without significant investment in infrastructure to manage it, it will lead to
less clean water, and wash away crucial topsoil.
Surface runoff is the flow of water that occurs when excess water (such as from rainfall) can no
longer be absorbed by the soil. River discharge (also called streamflow) is the volume of water that
flows through a river or stream channel. Surface runoff and river discharge will increase
significantly in Asia, HECA and West Africa (while decreasing in the Middle East). Increased surface
runoff will not only deplete the soil of nutrients – thereby affecting food security – but also
increase the risk of water pollution by picking up sediment, dirt and contaminants. These may end

7
up in bodies of water or in the water supply, causing harm both to people and wildlife. Increased
river discharge, as projected in three of the four regions for 2050, will increase the risk of flooding.
In such a scenario, even livelihood systems that have long been well adapted to the ecological
context will be greatly strained, and people’s capacities for resilience will be undermined.
Table 2: Climate change impact on water (under SSP2)
Region Temperature Precipitation Surface runoff River Soil moisture
increase (2040) (2050) discharge (2050)
(2040) (2050)
Horn, East and + 1.4°C + 6.7% + 24.53% + 20.23% + 1.79%
Central Africa

Middle East + 2.0°C + 1.1% - 3.08% - 8.33% - 3.28%

West Africa + 1.4°C + 7% + 28.28% + 25.31 + 2.52%

Asia + 1.0°C + 1.1% + 9.28% + 5.15% - 0.31%

Changes in food systems: Food security will be significantly affected by these climatic changes,
not just as soil moisture changes, but also through varying effects on different crop yields. Wheat
is a staple crop for a significant portion of the global population and plays a key role in global food
security, yet wheat yields will be greatly affected by climate change. For example, wheat yields are
expected to decrease in West Africa by 24.61% and by 3.03% in the HECA region. For East and West
African countries looking to boost wheat production with a view to becoming more self-sufficient
and less reliant on imports, the effects of climate change may prove a significant obstacle. Maize
– another key staple for many people worldwide – will also be significantly affected. In this ‘middle
of the road’ scenario, maize yields are forecast to decrease across all four regions: by 0.9% in the
HECA region; by 5.45% in the Middle East; by 4.2% in West Africa; and by 2.61% in Asia. These
impacts will be felt globally but particularly hard in countries of sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere
where maize is a staple.
Overall, however, it is important to note that crop yields will be affected differently and some could
even be boosted under this scenario in certain areas. Wheat yields could rise in the Middle East
countries by 7.97% and by 2.25% in the countries in our Asia sample. Similarly, rice yields could
rise in West Africa by 9.5% and by 5.7% in the HECA region. As different crops become more or less
favourable, this will necessitate significant change in local agricultural practices and methods,
and in infrastructure and markets, so that food production systems can adapt to climate change.
Heatwaves: In all regions, the population at risk of heatwaves also increases by 13.19 percentage
points (pp) for HECA, 7.95 pp in Asia, 12 pp in the Middle East and 6.35 pp in West Africa. This is
likely to have a range of significant impacts on human life and wellbeing in these regions,
including limiting people’s ability to work outdoors. In addition to diminished labour productivity,
this will also have disproportionate impacts on women, with higher heat stress on pregnant
women and those working outdoors, such as in agricultural labour.
Displacement: The ability to manage the impacts of the climate crisis will also have a severe
impact on internal migration and displacement trends. The World Bank’s Groundswell reports 15
show that by 2050, as many as 216 million people could be internally displaced because of climate
change. In sub-Saharan Africa, there could be as many as 85.7 million internal climate migrants
(4.2% of the total population); in East Asia and the Pacific, 48.4 million (2.5% of the total
population); in South Asia, 40.5 million (1.8% of the total population); and in North Africa, 19.3
million (9% of the total population).

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Disease: The research also indicates that rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns
will have a significant impact on the spread of disease vectors. In particular they will create
favourable conditions for mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), which will increase
the risk of diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, Zika virus, West Nile virus
and Japanese encephalitis. In the Middle East, the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases
is projected to increase by 37 million by 2050. In the HECA region, an additional 56 million people
will be at risk from mosquito-borne illnesses by 2050. Cases of Leishmaniasis (transmitted by
sandflies – also known as kala azar) and Schistosomiasis (commonly known as bilharzia and
caused by a parasitic worm living in freshwater) will also increase in the Middle East region.
For malaria alone, across the 20 climate hotspots included in this research, 141 million people are
projected to get malaria by as early as the 2030s with a global temperature rise of 1.5°C. This
includes between 50 million and 62 million people in East and southern Africa alone. In East and
Central Africa, up to 30,000 diarrhoeal deaths among children (below the age of 15) may occur by
2050 under the 1.5°C to 2.1°C scenario. In Asia, an increase of 125% per year (on average) in
malaria cases is expected by 2050. Analyses also show an increase in (until now uncommon) ticks
and Lyme disease in the region.

Box 3: Water crisis in Iraq

Iraq –the world’s fifth-most vulnerable nation to the effects of climate change 16 – is in the midst of one
of the worst water crises in living memory. Drought is ravaging swathes of the country, leaving at least
7 million people without water, food or electricity, and forcing farmers to abandon both their land and
their dying animals so that they can migrate to towns and cities.
The Diyala governorate in northern Iraq, stretching from Baghdad to the Iranian border, is one of the
areas worst affected by years of devastating drought. High temperatures have depleted water supplies,
including the artificial Lake Hamrin that connects to the Diyala river. The lake has dried up so much that
part of it has become a desert plain. With drastically lower water levels, supply slows to a trickle long
before it reaches the end of canals farming villages that rely on water for themselves, their crops, and
their animals. Many farmers like Khalida have relied on the lake their whole life. After her husband died,
she worked on their land with her children, but the drought forced her to sell her animals and killed
everything she grew.
‘We had lots of land, there was enough rain, and the rivers were full. Not anymore. We depend on the
land to get our food and to feed our animals. Our animals would produce and then we would sell them.
Now, the land is so dry we sold the sheep and cows. Not only us but everyone.’
Khalida said the situation is dire and her biggest hope for the future is for her children to find reliable
jobs away from farming. Many families like hers are considering moving to the city, but she doesn’t want
to do this. ‘I don’t want to leave, where would I go? But going back to relying on farming our land doesn’t
seem like an option in the near future.’

FUNDING GAPS FOR WATER AND

SANITATION
Achieving universal access to safe WASH services (as called for in SDG 6) in the 140 low and middle-
income countries is estimated to cost approximately US$1.7 trillion from 2016 to 2030, or US$114bn
per year. 17 However, failing to meet these needs would cost even more: the economic losses (such as
healthcare costs, productivity losses, etc.) associated with inadequate WASH services in 136 low and

9
middle-income countries is estimated at US$260bn. 18 Failure to provide clean water can also have
fatal consequences for people in low-income countries; it is estimated that there are 829,000 19
deaths per year due to diarrhoea as a result of unsafe drinking water. The current lack of
prioritization for WASH in national budgets as well as official development assistance (ODA) is
therefore critically flawed and must be addressed urgently.
In addition to the need to strengthen humanitarian funding, our research reinforces the urgency for
greater long-term investment in WASH. 20 National governments must allocate significant budget to
strengthen WASH investments. Analyses of national budgets show that in many countries,
government expenditure on WASH is not only very low in relation to overall spend, but also as a
percentage. For example, only 0.8% of GDP in Uganda and 0.5% of GDP in Bangladesh is allocated to
WASH 21. Conversely, in 10 of the countries examined in this briefing paper, spending on the military is
more than double that for water and sanitation. In one of the most extreme cases in Africa, Nigeria is
spending 21 times more on its military forces than on water and sanitation. 22 Water and sanitation
infrastructure that are sustainable and resilient require not only good governance, but also financial
resources to implement WASH plans. This requires an urgent change in how governments prioritize
their public spending.

Although greater investment by national governments remains a key requisite, inequalities in the
global system have left many low and middle-income countries without the resources required to
invest in WASH. Long-term goals on water security and WASH require significant funding, and ODA
has not kept pace with rising needs. The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the extent to which the
world’s WASH systems were unprepared – with funding for WASH having stagnated just prior to the
outbreak of the pandemic. In 2022, a report from Action Against Hunger (ACF) found that only 30%
of United Nations (UN) appeals for WASH (across 41 countries) were met. 23 The ACF report also
found that no country experiencing a hunger crisis had any of its WASH appeals fully funded;
countries experiencing hunger crises only had 38% of their WASH-related needs met. Oxfam’s own
research shows that humanitarian appeals linked to extreme weather have risen significantly over
the past two decades, 24 particularly in countries in the Global South and many that are classified
as ‘fragile’ contexts. 25 The highest number of recurring appeals involving extreme weather
between 2000 and 2021 were from Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic
of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe. 26
The short-termism of humanitarian funding towards WASH is a critical barrier in achieving water
security. Short-term financing for long-term crises can, in fact, increase costs, decrease
efficiency, and render interventions unsustainable – for instance, it is estimated that 60% 27 of
water projects in Africa fail due to a lack of long-term investment. As such, long-term, flexible and
predictable funding to WASH programmes, in line with national plans for recipient countries,
remains urgent and indispensable. Considering the disease burden caused by WASH under-
investments and the climate crisis, there remains an urgent need to bolster public health systems.
Improving water security, sanitation and hygiene has significant potential to positively influence
poverty, hunger, gender equity, health, education and cooperation, among other socioeconomic
indicators. 28 It is urgent, now more than ever, for governments and donors to increase investments
in WASH.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The climate crisis is already having severe consequences for global water security and those
impacts are being felt disproportionately by the most vulnerable regions and the most vulnerable
people within them. Rising food insecurity, the spread of disease, forced migration and
displacement, and a poorer future are all clear and predicted consequences of increased water
insecurity driven by climate change.

10
It is critical that governments rally together in the face of this seismic challenge to honour their
promises to deal with the drivers of climate change and invest sufficiently in the resources
needed for water, sanitation and hygiene, particularly for marginalized and at-risk communities so
that they can adapt and maintain their livelihoods.
Oxfam is calling on governments globally to:
Reduce emissions drastically: All countries, especially rich polluting nations, must rise to their
responsibilities and resubmit ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in line with
their fair share to limit the global temperature rise to below 1.5°C.
Invest in water security and sustainable water management: Ministers responsible for Finance,
Health and Water of all national governments, together with donors, should unlock economic
benefits and promote economic resilience by increasing long-term, flexible and predictable
funding for climate-adapted WASH programmes. National planning and policy around WASH must
commit to women’s leadership, participation and decision-making at all stages.
Prioritise efforts to reach Sustainable Development Goal 6: This should be done with a particular
focus on hard-to-reach populations, and ensure that these efforts take a rights-based and
gendered approach, rebalancing historical and current inequities to access and investment in
water. Promote gender mainstreaming in water management, security and sanitation by linking
this to the SDG 5 Goal on Gender Equality targets and indicators.
Support those most at risk through early warning and anticipatory action: Governments globally
must commit to anticipatory action and early preparedness ahead of climate shocks. Funding
must be secured so that it is ready to be dispatched ahead of climate-related disasters. Social
protection systems should be strengthened to mitigate people’s chronic vulnerabilities to shocks.
Locally led early action must be supported with sufficient funding.
Compensate those most affected by the climate crisis: Rich countries must meet longstanding
promises to provide US$100bn per year to help poorer countries cope with climate change and to
compensate low-income countries for the damages and losses they caused them due to climate
change. Governments must impose taxes on rich individuals and corporations, particularly those
making record profits from the climate crisis such as fossil fuel companies. Where relevant,
governments must consider cancelling the debts of low and middle-income countries that require
support to adapt to climate change and water insecurity.
Provide emergency assistance to save lives and support development: Donors, especially rich
countries, must immediately fill the UN humanitarian appeal gap to help the countries and people
that are being hardest hit by the climate crisis. Donors must meet their commitments to provide
0.7% of gross national income (GNI) to ODA.

11
NOTES
1
OECD. (2013). Water and Climate Change Adaptation: Policies to Navigate Uncharted Waters. OECD Studies
on Water. Paris: OECD Publishing. Accessed 7 August 2023. https://www.oecd.org/environment/water-and-
climate-change-adaptation-9789264200449-en.htm
2
United Nations Climate Action. ‘Water – at the Center of the Climate Crisis’. Accessed 7 August 2023.
ttps://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water
3
https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal6
4
UNESCO. (2019). Water Security and the Sustainable Development Goals (Series 1): Global Water Security Issues
(GWSI) Series. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).
5
S. Young, H. Bethancourt, Z. Ritter and E. Frongillo. (2022). ‘Estimating National, Demographic, and
Socioeconomic Disparities in Water Insecurity in Low- and Middle Income Countries in 2020–2021: A Cross-
sectional, Observational Study, Using Nationally Representative Surveys’. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6,
e880–e891; A.Y. Rosinger and S. Young. (2020). ‘The Toll of Household Water Insecurity on Health and Human
Biology: Current Understandings and Future Directions’. WIREs Water, 7(6); J. Stoler et al. (2021). ‘Connecting
the Dots Between Climate Change, Household Water Insecurity, and Migration’. Current Opinion in
Environmental Sustainability, 51, 36-41.
6
The research was done by Saaf Consult BV, Ele Jan Saaf and Valerio Nicolin- unpublished
7
The IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas and the CIE are complementary tools for climate projection studies thanks to
their distinct features, datasets, and areas of focus. The IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas emphasizes physical cli-
mate change aspects such as temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise. The CIE goes beyond physical cli-
mate variables and provides information on climate impacts on various sectors such as agriculture, water and
health. Thus, combining the two databases enables users to visualize and customize regional patterns and var-
iations in climate change projections.
8
D. Grey and C. Sadoff. (2007). ‘Sink or Swim? Water Security for Growth and Development’. Water Policy, 9,
545–71.
9
L. Rost. (12 March 2018). How improving access to water can help reduce care work. Views & Voices blog.
Accessed 7 August 2023. https://views-voices.oxfam.org.uk/2018/03/access-water-care-work
10
Tallman, P., et al. (2022). Water Insecurity and Gender-Based Violence: A global review of the evidence.
WIREs Water. https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wat2.1619#pane-pcw-figures
11
Calculated from Our World in Data.’ CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions’. Accessed 7 August 2023.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions
12
Oxfam. (21 September 2020). Carbon emissions of richest 1 percent more than double the emissions of the
poorest half of humanity. Press release. Accessed 7 August 2023. https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-re-
leases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-percent-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanity
13
The internal paper commissioned by Oxfam investigated SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5.
14
K. Riahi et al. (2017). ‘The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their Energy, Land Use, and Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Implications: An Overview’. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–68.
15
V. Clement et al. (2021). Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC: The
World Bank. Accessed 7 August 2023. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36248.
16
United Nations Iraq. (2022). Factsheet: The Impact of Climate Change on the Environment in IDP and
Returnee Locations - Integrated Location Assessment VII. Accessed 7 August 2023.
https://iraq.un.org/en/202663-factsheet-impact-climate-change-environment-idp-and-returnee-
locations-integrated-
location#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20Global%20Environment,food%20availability%20and%20e
xtreme%20temperatures
17
G. Hutton and M. Varughese. (2016). The Costs of Meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal Targets
on Drinking Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene. Summary Report. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Accessed
7 August 2023. openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23681

12
18
G. Hulton and WHO (World Health Organization). (2012). Global Costs and Benefits of Drinking-Water Supply
and Sanitation Interventions to Reach the MDG Target and Universal Coverage. Geneva: World Health
Organization.
19
United Nations. (2021). The United Nations World Water Development Report 2021:Valuing Water. Paris:
UNESCO. Accessed 7 August 2023. https://www.unwater.org/publications/un-world-water-
development-report-2021
20
Oxfam International. (2023). The Case for SDG 6 in a Post-COVID World: How Targeted Investment in Water
and Sanitation Can Boost Resilience. Oxford: Oxfam International. Accessed 7 August 2023.
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621492/bp-sdg-6-post-covid-
targeted-investment-in-WASH-230323-en.pdf?sequence=1
21
UN Water Global Analysis and Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking Water GLAAAS Report, 2022. Strong
Systems and Sound Investments - Evidence on and key insights into accelerating progress on sanitation,
drinking-water and hygiene. Retrieved from
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/365297/9789240065031-
eng.pdf?sfvrsn=f6b6f522_13
22
Calculated using GLAAS Report 2022 (above) and SIPRI Military Expenditures Database:
https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex
23
Action Against Hunger. (2023). The World’s Water Funding Crisis – How Donors are Missing the Mark.
Accessed 7 August 2023. https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/app/uploads/2023/03/2023-
WaterFundingGapReport.pdf
24
T. Carty and L. Walsh. (2022). Footing the Bill: Fair Finance for Loss and Damage in an Era of Escalating
Climate Impacts. Oxford: Oxfam International. Accessed 7 August 2023.
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621382/bp-fair-finance-loss-and-
damage-070622-en.pdf?sequence=31
25
According to the OECD States of Fragility 2022. Accessed 7 August 2023.
https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htm
26
T. Carty and L. Walsh. (2022). Footing the Bill op. cit.
27
A. Field. (25 October 2021). 60% of water wells fail In Africa. An app aims to prevent that. Forbes website.
Accessed 7 August 2023. https://www.forbes.com/sites/annefield/2021/10/25/60-of-water-wells-
fail-in-africa-an-app-aims-to-prevent-that/
28
United Nations. (2021). The United Nations World Water Development Report 2021: Valuing Water op. cit.

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