FORMULATING HYPOTHESIS

Prepared to Fulfill Course Assignments of Research Methodology on English

Language Teaching

In English Postgraduate Education

Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Syafrizal, M.Pd

Arranged by

Group 5:

Alien Lenda Swara (7777230008)

Helda Oktaviani (7777230012)

Abdul Azis (7777230013)

MASTER OF ENGLISH EDUCATION

FACULTY OF TEACHER TRAINING AND EDUCATION

UNIVERSITY OF SULTAN AGENG TIRTAYASA

2024
 PREFACE
First of all, praise and thanks to The God Almighty, who has given His love and
mercy, so that a paper entitled “Formulating Hypothesis” be able to finish well easily
and in accordance with the specified time. Without his help, we might not be able to
finish this paper on time.
The purpose in writing this paper is to fulfill the assignment that given by Prof.
Dr. Syafrizal, M.Pd as a lecturer of Research Methodology on English Language
Teaching courses. In arranging this paper, the writers truly get lots challenges and
obstructions, but with help of many individuals, those obstructions could pass. The
writers also realized that there are still many mistakes in process of writing this paper.
Because of that, the writers say thank you to all individuals who helps in the process
of writing this paper.
The writers realized that many flaws in the writing of this paper, in terms of
material, technical, and presentation material. Therefore, we expect criticism and
constructive suggestion to refine the writing of this paper further. Last but not the least,
hopefully this paper can help the readers to gain more information and improve our
knowledge about Formulating Hypothesis.

Serang, March 21th 2024

The writers

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE ..................................................................................................................... i

TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................ ii

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1

1.1. Background of the Problem................................................................................. 1

1.2. Formulation of the Problem................................................................................ 3

1.3. Objective of the Problem .................................................................................... 3

CHAPTER II THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................... 4

2.1 Hypothesis ........................................................................................................... 4

2.1.1 Concept of Hypothesis ............................................................................. 4

2.1.2 Assumption Postulate and Hypothesis ..................................................... 5

2.2 Function of Hypothesis........................................................................................ 7

2.2.1 The Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis ............................................... 9

2.2.2 The Types of Hypothesis ........................................................................ 11

2.2.3 Relevant Study................................................................................................ 14

CHAPTER III DISCUSSION .................................................................................. 17

3.3 Formulating Hypothesis ................................................................................... 17

3.3.1 Statistical Errors in Hypothesis .............................................................. 22

3.3.2 Criteria for Evaluating Hypothesis ......................................................... 25

CHAPTER IV CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION .......................................... 28

4.1 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 28

4.2 Suggestion ......................................................................................................... 28

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 31

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 CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Problem

In English learning, formulating a hypothesis is an important first step before
conducting research. A hypothesis is a statement proposed to be tested for truth through
research. In the context of learning English, we are often interested in knowing whether
a particular learning method or approach can improve students' abilities in speaking,
writing, listening, or reading in English. The practice of formulating hypotheses has
evolved over time, influenced by various scientific disciplines. Researchers can begin
working on a question that interests them, they need to formulate a research hypothesis.
This is an important step in the scientific method because this determines the direction
of the study (Bradford, 2022). Scientists need to scrutinize previous work in the area
and select an experimental design to use that helps them find data that either supports
or rejects their hypothesis.

Formulating hypotheses is a fundamental step in the scientific research process.

A hypothesis is a tentative explanation or prediction that guides researchers in
designing experiments, collecting data, and drawing conclusions. Hypothesis is an idea
or explanation for something that is based on known facts but has not yet been proved
(Jansen, 2020). The statement above also supported by another expert, hypothesis
offers a solution of the problem that is to be verified empirically and based on some
rationale (Aremen Yuri Gasparyan, 2019).It provides a framework for organizing
research efforts and helps in establishing a clear research question. However, the
process of formulating hypotheses is not without challenges. Researchers often
encounter difficulties in defining testable hypotheses, ensuring their validity, and
avoiding bias.

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 Formulating hypotheses is a critical aspect of scientific inquiry and research. A
hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables
(Dayanand, 2018). In recent years, there has been an increasing interest among writers
in investigating the process of hypothesis formulation, especially within the domain of
English language learning and teaching in EFL contexts. The rationale behind the
writers' interest in exploring the topic of formulating hypotheses in EFL contexts it
explores the theoretical foundations that underpin the importance of hypothesis
formulation in language learning and research. Formulation in promoting critical
thinking, problem-solving skills, and language proficiency development among EFL
learners. Interconnected variables that influence hypothesis formulation in EFL
contexts. It examines factors such as learners' language proficiency, prior knowledge,
cognitive abilities, cultural backgrounds, and educational environments. The section
emphasizes the dynamic and multifaceted nature of these variables and their impact on
the formulation of hypotheses in EFL learning and research settings. The paper
concludes by summarizing the rationale for exploring the topic of formulating
hypotheses in EFL contexts. It underscores the theoretical perspectives, interconnected
variables, and challenges associated with hypothesis formulation. By recognizing these
factors, educators and researchers can design effective instructional strategies, develop
tailored assessment tools, and create a supportive environment for EFL learners to
enhance their hypothesis formulation skills.

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1.2 Formulation of the Problem
Based on the background of the problem above the formulation of the problem are
as follows:

1. What is the definition of hypothesis?

2. What is assumption postulate and hypothesis?
3. What are the functions of hypothesis?
4. What are the characteristics of a good hypothesis?
5. What are the types of research hypothesis?
6. How to formulating hypothesis?
7. What are statistical errors in hypothesis?
8. What are criteria for evaluating hypothesis?

1.3 Objective of the Problem

Based on the formulation of the problem above the objective of the problem are
as follows:

1. To know the definition of hypothesis

2. To understand the about assumption postulate and hypothesis
3. To understand the function of hypothesis
4. To know the characteristics of a good hypothesis
5. To know the types of research hypothesis
6. To understand formulating of hypothesis
7. To know the statistical errors in hypothesis
8. To know the criteria for evaluating hypothesis.

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 CHAPTER II

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Definition of Hypothesis

2.1.1 Concept of Hypothesis
The word hypothesis consists of two words: Hypo + thesis = Hypothesis. “Hypo”
means tentative or subject to the verification and ‘Thesis’ means statement about
solution of a problem. The word meaning of the term hypothesis is a tentative statement
about the solution of the problem. It can be concluded that, hypothesis is an idea or
explanation for something that is based on known facts but has not yet been proved
(Jansen, 2020). The statement above also supported by another expert, hypothesis
offers a solution of the problem that is to be verified empirically and based on some
rationale (Aremen Yuri Gasparyan, 2019).

On the other hand, meaning of the word hypothesis which is composed of two
words “Hypo” means composition of two or more variables which is to be verified.
“Thesis” means position of these variables in the specific frame of reference. From
explanation above that hypothesis is the composition of some variables which have
some specific position or role of the variables i.e. to be verified empirically. It is a
proposition about the factual and conceptual elements. Hypothesis is called a leap into
the dark. It is a brilliant guess about the solution of a problem. A hypothesis is a
tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables (Dayanand,
2018).

A hypothesis is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen

in the study. To be complete the hypothesis must include three components: the
variables, the population; and the relationship between the variables. Remember, a
hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the
researchers expect to see, the goal of research is to determine whether this guess is right
or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore a number of

4
different factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome. In
many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment do not support the
original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other
options that should be explored in future studies.

2.1.2 Assumption, Postulate and Hypothesis

The terms assumption, postulate and hypothesis occur most frequently in the
research literature, but are often confused by research scholars. Hence these terms need
clear explanation. Assumption: Assumption means taking things for granted so that
the situation is simplified for logical procedure (Bradford, 2022). Assumptions are not
the very ground of our activity as the postulates are. They merely facilitate the progress
of an agreement a partial simplification by introducing restrictive conditions. For
example, the formulas of Statistics and measurement are based on number of
assumptions. Assumption means restrictive conditions before the argument can
become valid. Assumptions are made on the basis of logical insight and their
truthfulness can be observed on the basis of data or evidences (Sajjad, 2016). The
postulates are the basis and form the original point of an argument whereas assumptions
are a matter of choice and less use, we make them freer will and our argument is a
general proposition or convention.

Meanwhile, the word of Postulates are the working beliefs of most scientific
activity. A postulate is a statement assumed to be true without need of proof of any
kind. A postulate states an assumption that we make about some relationship between
objects (McCombes, 2022). For example, we may postulate that a+b = b+a. This simply
says that if we combine two objects, a and b, the order in which the combination occurs
makes no difference in the result. By logical deductions, other statements, called
theorems, are derived. From postulates to theorems, we are entirely within the realm of
ideas. There is no point in asking for experimental proof of deductions. Such a request

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would be meaningless. The only appeal for proof that is appropriate is entirely within
the realm of logic.

Based on (Sajjad, 2016) proposed nine postulates. The first three postulates have
to do with identities. The next two postulates have to do with the establishment of order.
The last four have to do with additivity:

1. Either a = b or a ≠ b the first postulate establishes the identity of a number.

Numbers are identical or they are different.
2. If a = b, then b = the second postulate states that the relation of equality is
symmetrical.
3. If a = b and b = c, then a = c the third postulate expresses in equation form the
familiar dictum; things equal to the same thing are equal to one another.
4. If a > b, then b a Postulate four points out the relation is asymmetrical.
5. If a > b and b > c, then a > c Postulate five is a transitive statement.
6. If a = p and b > 0, then a+b > p Postulate six indicates the possibility of
summation. It also implies the fact that the addition of zero leaves a number
invariant.
7. a+b = b+a Postulate seven means that the order in which things are added makes
no difference in the result.
8. If a = p and b = q, then a+b = p+q Postulate eight means that identical objects
may be substituted for one another in addition.
9. (a+b) + c = a + (b+c) Finally, postulate nine means that the order of
combinations or associations makes no difference in addition.

A hypothesis is different from both of these. It is the presumptive statement of a

proposition which the investigator seeks to prove. It is a condensed generalization. This
generalization requires knowledge of principles of things or essential characteristics
which pertain to entire class of phenomena. The theory when stated as a testable
proposition formally and clearly and subjected to empirical or experimental

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verification is known as hypothesis. The hypothesis furnishes the germinal basis of the
whole investigation and remains to test it out by facts. The hypothesis is based on some
earlier theory and some rationale whereas postulates are taken as granted true. An
assumption is the assumed solution of a major problem. It may be partially true. The
scientific research process is based on some hypotheses. The nature of sciences and
mathematics are based on postulates. The statistic is based on some assumptions which
are considered approximate science. The assumptions are helpful in conducting a
research work in behavioral sciences.

2.2 The Functions of Hypothesis

A hypothesis, which is a provisional formulation plays significant role in

empirical or socio-legal research (Singh, 2023). It not only navigates research in a
proper direction but also contributes in testing or suggesting theories and describing a
social or legal phenomenon. Role of hypothesis in navigating research: A hypothesis,
regardless of its source, states what a researcher is looking for. It also suggests some
plausible explanations about the probable relationships between the concepts or
variables indicated therein. In fact, it navigates the research. Without it, no further step
is possible in empirical research or non-doctrinal legal research. A hypothesis helps the
researcher in drawing “meaningful conclusions” supported by “relevant” empirical
data. A hypothesis serves as a sound guide to: (i) the kind of data that must be
collected in order to answer the research problem; (ii) the way in which the data should
be organized most efficiently and meaningfully, and (iii) the type of methods that can
be used for making analysis of the data.

Role of “tested” hypothesis: A hypothesis needs to be empirically tested to draw

some inferences about the initially posited relationship between the variables indicated
in the hypothesis. Therefore, when it is empirically tested (or not), the initially assumed
relationship between the concepts or variables, as the case may be becoming a proved

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fact. Once a hypothesis is established, it ceases to be a hypothesis. A hypothesis also
performs the following significant functions:

1. Test theories: A hypothesis, when empirically proved, helps us in testing an

existing theory. A theory is not a mere speculation, but it is built upon facts. It
is a set of inter-related propositions or statements organized into a deductive
system that offers an explanation of some phenomenon. Facts constitute a
theory when they are assembled, ordered and seen in a relationship. Therefore,
when a hypothesis is “tested”, it not only supports the existing theory that
accounts for description of some social phenomenon but also in a way “tests”
it.
2. Suggest new theories: A hypothesis, even though related to some existing
theory may after tested reveal certain “facts” that are not related to the existing
theory or disclose relationships other than those stated in the theory. It does not
support the existing theory but suggests a new theory.
3. Describe social phenomenon: A hypothesis also performs a descriptive
function. Each time a hypothesis is tested empirically, it tells us something
about the phenomenon it is associated with. If the hypothesis is empirically
supported, then our information about the phenomenon increases. Even if the
hypothesis is refuted, the test tells us something about the phenomenon we did
not know before.
4. Suggest social policy: A hypothesis, after its testing, may highlight such ‘ills’
of the existing social or legislative policy. In such a situation, the tested
hypothesis helps us in formulating (or reformulating) a social policy. It may
also suggest or hint at probable solutions to the existing social problem(s) and
their implementation.

The hypotheses play significant role in the scientific studies. According to

(Singh, 2023) the following are some of the important role and functions of the
hypothesis: helps in the testing of the theories, serves as a great platform in the

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investigation activities, provides guidance to the research work or study, hypothesis
sometimes suggests theories, Helps in knowing the needs of the data, explains social
phenomena, develops the theory, also acts as a bridge between the theory and the
investigation, provides a relationship between phenomena in such a way that it leads
to the empirical testing of the relationship, helps in knowing the most suitable technique
of analysis, helps in the determination of the most suitable type of research, provides
knowledge about the required sources of data, research becomes focused under the
direction of the hypothesis, it is very helpful in carrying out an enquiry of a certain
activity and helps in reaching conclusions, if it is correctly drawn.

2.2.1 The Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

Based on (Kumar, 2013) a ‘workable’ or ‘usable’ hypothesis would be the one

that satisfies many of the following criteria:

1. Hypothesis should be conceptually clear: The concepts used in the hypothesis

should be clearly defined not only formally but also if possibly and
operationally. Formal definition of the concepts will clarify what a particular
concept stands for, while the operational definition will leave no ambiguity
about what would constitute the empirical evidence or indicator of the concept
on the plane of reality. Obviously, an undefined or ill-defined concept makes it
difficult or rather impossible for the researcher to test hypothesis as there will
not be any standard basis for researcher to know the observable facts. However,
a researcher, while defining concepts, should use, as far as possible, the terms
that are communicable or definitions that are commonly accepted. It should be
stated as far as possible in most simple terms so that it can be easily
understandable all concerned. Researcher should not create “a private world of
words”.
2. Hypothesis should be specific: No vague or value-judgmental terms should be
used in formulation of a hypothesis. It should specifically state the posited

9
 relationship between the variables. It should include a clear statement of all the
predictions and operations indicated therein and they should be precisely
spelled out. Specific formulation of a hypothesis assures that research is
practicable and significant. It helps to increase the validity of results because
the more specific the statement or prediction, the smaller the probability that it
will actually be borne out as a result of mere accident or chance. A researcher,
therefore, must remember that narrower hypothesis is generally more testable
and s/he should develop such a hypothesis.
3. Hypothesis should be empirically testable: It should have empirical referents so
that it will be possible to deduce certain logical deductions and inferences about
it. Therefore, a researcher should take utmost care that his/her hypothesis
embodies concepts or variables that have clear empirical correspondence and
not concepts or variables that are loaded with moral judgments or values. Such
statements as ‘criminals are no worse than businessmen’, ‘capitalists exploit
their workers’, ‘bad parents beget bad children’, ‘bad homes breed criminality’,
or ‘pigs are well named because they are so dirty’ can hardly be usable
hypotheses as they do not have any empirical referents for testing their validity.
In other words, a researcher should avoid using terms loaded with values or
beliefs or words having moral or attitudinal connotations in his hypothesis.
4. Hypothesis should be related to available techniques: Researcher may
ignorance of the available techniques, makes him/her weak in formulating a
workable hypothesis. A hypothesis, therefore, needs to be formulated only after
due thought has been given to the methods and techniques that can be used for
measuring the concepts or variables incorporated in the hypothesis.
5. Hypothesis should be related to a body of theory or some theoretical
orientation: A hypothesis, if tested, helps to qualify, support, correct or refute
an existing theory, only if it is related to some theory or has some theoretical
orientation. A hypothesis imaginatively formulated does not only elaborate and
improve existing theory but may also suggest important links between it and

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 some other theories. Thus, exercise of deriving hypothesis from a body of
theory may also be an occasion for scientific leap into newer areas of
knowledge.

A hypothesis derived from a theory invests its creator with the power of
prediction of its future. The potency of hypothesis in regard to predictive purpose
constitutes a great advancement in scientific knowledge. A genuine contribution to
knowledge is more likely to result from such a hypothesis. A hypothesis, it is said, to
be preferred is one which can predict what will happen, and from which we can infer
what has already happened, even if we did not know (it had happened) when the
hypothesis was formulated.

2.2.2 The Types of Research Hypothesis

Before researchers can begin working on a question that interests them, they
need to formulate a research hypothesis. This is an important step in the scientific
method because this determines the direction of the study (Bradford, 2022). Scientists
need to scrutinize previous work in the area and select an experimental design to use
that helps them find data that either supports or rejects their hypothesis. According to
(Jansen, 2020) research hypotheses are of different types: simple, complex, directional,
nondirectional, associative, causal, inductive & deductive, null, and alternative or
research. The explanation can be seen below:

1. Simple Hypothesis: This predicts the relationship between a single

independent variable (IV) and a single dependent variable (DV). For example:
Lower levels of exercise postpartum (IV) will be associated with greater weight
retention (DV).
2. Complex Hypothesis: This predicts the relationship between two or more
independent variables and two or more dependent variables. Example of a
complex multiple independent variable hypothesis: low risk pregnant women
(IV) who value health highly believe that engaging in health promoting

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 behaviours will result in positive outcomes, perceive fewer barriers to health
promoting activities; are more likely than other women to attend pregnancy-
related education programs (DV). Another example of a complex multiple
dependent variable hypothesis: the implementation of an evidence-based
protocol for urinary incontinence (IV) will result in (DV) decreased frequency
of urinary incontinence episodes, decreased urine loss per episode, decreased
avoidance of activities among women in ambulatory care settings.
3. Directional Hypothesis: This may imply that the researcher is intellectually
committed to a particular outcome. They specify the expected direction of the
relationship between variables i.e. the researcher predicts not only the existence
of a relationship but also its nature. Scientific journal articles generally use this
form of hypothesis. The investigator bases this hypothesis on the trends
apparent from previous research on this topic. Considering the example, a
researcher may state the hypothesis as, “High school students who participate
in extracurricular activities have a lower GPA than those who do not participate
in such activities.” Such hypotheses provide a definite direction to the
prediction.
4. Nondirectional Hypothesis: This form of hypothesis is used in studies where
there is no sufficient past research on which to base a prediction. Do not
stipulate the direction of the relationship. Continuing with the same example, a
nondirectional hypothesis would read, “The academic performance of high
school students is related to their participation in extracurricular activities.”
5. Associative Hypothesis: Associative hypotheses propose relationships
between variables, when one variable changes, the other changes. Do not
indicate cause and effect.
6. Causal Hypothesis: Causal hypotheses propose a cause-and-effect interaction
between two or more variables. The independent variable is manipulated to
cause effect on the dependent variable. The dependent variable is measured to
examine the effect created by the independent variable. For the example

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 mentioned, the causal hypothesis will state, “High school students who
participate in extracurricular activities spend less time studying which leads to
a low GPA.” When verifying such hypotheses, the researcher needs to use
statistical techniques to demonstrate the presence of a relationship between the
cause and effect. Such hypotheses also need the researcher to rule out the
possibility that the effect is a result of a cause other than what the study has
examined.
7. Inductive and Deductive Hypotheses: Inductive hypotheses are formed
through inductively reasoning from many specific observations to tentative
explanations. Deductive hypotheses are formed through deductively reasoning
implications of theory.
8. Null Hypothesis: This is a hypothesis that proposes no relationship or
difference between two variables. This is the conventional approach to making
a prediction. It involves a statement that says there is no relationship between
two groups that the researcher compares on a certain variable. The hypothesis
may also state that there is no significant difference when different groups are
compared with respect to a particular variable. For example, “There is no
difference in the academic performance of high school students who participate
in extracurricular activities and those who do not participate in such activities”
is a null hypothesis. It asserts that there is no true difference in the sample
statistic and population parameter under consideration (hence the word ‘null’
which means invalid, void, or a mounting to nothing) and that the difference
found is accidental arising out of fluctuations of sampling. It is denoted as H0.
Table 1.1
States of Nature and Descisions on Null Hypothesis

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 The rejection of the null hypothesis indicates that the differences have statistical
significance and the acceptance of the null hypothesis indicates that the
differences are due to chance.
9. Alternate or Research Hypothesis: This hypothesis proposes a relationship
between two or more variables, symbolized as H1. For example, if a researcher
was interested in examining the relationship between music and emotion, s/he
may believe that there is a relationship between music and emotion.
• H1 (the research/alternate hypothesis): Music at a fast tempo is rated by
participants as being happier than music at a slow tempo.
• H0 (the null hypothesis): Music at a fast tempo and at a slow tempo is
rated the same in happiness by participants.
The two hypotheses we propose to test must be mutually exclusive; i.e., when
one is true the other must be false. And we see that they must be exhaustive;
they must include all possible occurrences.
10. Statistical Hypothesis: Statistical hypothesis is an assumption about statistical
populations that one seeks to support or refute. The null hypothesis and
alternative hypothesis together are called statistical hypothesis.

2.2.3 Relevant Study

In the realm of educational research, the formulation of hypotheses serves

as a cornerstone for designing and conducting quantitative studies aimed at
investigating various phenomena within the educational context. The ability to
articulate clear, testable hypotheses is fundamental to the development of rigorous
research questions, the design of appropriate research methodologies, and the

14
interpretation of empirical findings. Relevant study in this domain have explored
the process of hypothesis formulation, examined factors influencing hypothesis
development, and assessed the impact of hypotheses on research outcomes and
educational practices.

The first relevant study conducted by Faridah (2020) entitled “How do

Primary School Students Acquire the Skill of Making Hypothesis” the research is
aimed to identifying the acquisition of the skill of formulating hypothesis among
primary school students. Based on the data analysis, four major categories emerged,
namely: (a) the concept of hypothesis, (b) identification of the effect of variable,
(c) the relationship between variables, and (d) testing of hypothesis. Initial findings
illustrated that the mastery level of hypothesis formulation in three participants was
very low, while the mastery level in the others was noticeably low. The second
study conducted by Al- Ishlah (2021) entitled “The future of instruction media in
Indonesian Education”. This study aimed to answer whether digital devices replace
print media in education in Indonesia's digital era, the researcher have attempted to
collect literature and publications related to this theme. Then it analyzes critically
to prove whether our hypothesis is accepted or rejected. The results reveal that
slowly the role of electronic media has begun to take over paper media. However,
with the condition of Indonesian education in general, the role of print media
continues to dominate the world of Indonesian education today, especially in
remote areas of the country where modern educational facilities are not yet
supported. Therefore, this finding is useful for policymakers and further study in a
similar field, it can be concluded that the hypothesis is accepted. The third research
conducted by Ling Wang (2020) With the continuous development of new
curriculum reform, language teaching is paid more attention to the learners’
affective state. Affective factors are becoming more and more important factors
affecting learners. Therefore, English educators need to make good use of affective
factors during the teaching. This thesis researches the middle school students’

15
emotional problems in the vocabulary learning from three aspects of affective filter
hypothesis: motivation, confidence and anxiety and finds the problems of middle
school students in English vocabulary learning, then applies this theory in
vocabulary teaching. The research shows that the affective filter hypothesis is
applied in Junior Middle School English vocabulary teaching. It effectively
improves teachers’ teaching proficiency and is good for students’ vocabulary
learning.

In synthesizing the relevance of hypothesis formulation in quantitative

educational research, this paper aims to inform researchers, educators, and policy
makers about the theoretical, methodological, and practical implications of
hypothesis-based inquiry. By critically analyzing existing literature and identifying
areas for further investigation, relevant studies aim to encourage innovation,
strengthen research results, and encourage the advancement of research
methodology in the field of education.

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 CHAPTER III

DISCUSSION

By relying on the theoretical framework that has been built in the previous chapters
which outlines key concepts and reviews relevant literature findings. as we know that
hypothesis is a proposed explanation or prediction for a phenomenon or set of
observations. It's essentially an educated guess that can be tested through
experimentation or further observation to determine its validity. Hypothesis are
fundamental in the scientific method as they guide research and help scientists form
conclusions based on empirical evidence. to get the suitable hypothesis, the researcher
has to through a lot of steps and another way. Furthermore, this discussion chapter aims
to describe formulating hypothesis, statistical errors in hypothesis and criteria for
evaluating hypothesis.

3.3 Formulating Hypothesis

1. Level of Significance
The level of significance is the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis
that is the probability of “Type I error” and is denoted by α. The frequently used
values of α are 0.05; 0.01; 0.1 etc.
When:
• α = 0.05 it means that level of significance is 5%.
• α = 0.01 it means 1% level of significance.
• α = 0.01 it means 10% level of significance.
In fact, α specifies the critical region. A competed value of the test statistic that
falls in the critical region (CR) is said to be significant. So, α is called the level
of significance.

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2. Critical/Rejection Region
The critical region (CR) or
rejection region (RR) is the area
under the curve beyond certain
limits in which the population
value is unlikely to fall by chance
only when the null hypothesis is assumed to be true. If an observed value falls
in this region H0 is rejected and the observed value is said to be significant. In
a word, the region for which H0 is rejected is called critical region or rejection
region.
3. Confidence Interval
Confidence interval is the
interval marked by limits within
which the population value lies
by chance and the hypothesis is consider to be tenable. If an observed value
falls in confidence interval H0 is accepted.
4. Critical Values

The values of the test statistic which separates critical region from confidence
region (acceptance region) are called critical values.
5. Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is the most frequently calculated measure of variability
or dispersion in a set of data points. The standard deviation value represents the
average distance of a set of scores from the mean or average score. A smaller
standard deviation represents a data set where scores are very close to the mean

18
 score (a smaller range). A data set with a larger standard deviation has scores
with more variance (a larger range). For example, if the average score on a test
was 80 and the standard deviation was 2, the scores would be more clustered
around the mean than if the standard deviation was 10.

Where, SD = Standard Deviation; Σ = Sum of; X = Individual Score; M = Mean

of All Scores; n = Sample Size (number of scores).
6. Standard Error
The standard error is an estimate of the standard deviation of a statistic. The
standard error is important because it is used to compute other measures, like
confidence intervals and margins of error. The standard error is computed from
known sample statistics, and it provides an unbiased estimate of the standard
deviation of the statistic. Symbolically:

Where, SD = Standard Deviation; N = Number of Samples

7. Degree of Freedom
Degree of freedom refers to the number of values which are free to vary after
we have given the number of restrictions imposed upon the data. It is commonly
abbreviated by df. In statistics, it is the number of values in a study that are free
to vary. For example, if you have to take ten different courses to graduate, and
only ten different courses are offered, then you have nine degrees of freedom.
Nine semesters you will be able to choose which class to take; the tenth
semester, there will only be one class left to take - there is no choice, if you
want to graduate.
Degrees of freedom are commonly discussed in relation to chi-square (χ 2 ) and
other forms of hypotheses testing statistics. It is important to calculate the
degree(s) of freedom when determining the significance of a chi-square statistic

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 and the validity of the null hypothesis. In chi-square (χ 2 ) the number of degrees
of freedom is described as the number of observations that are free to vary after
certain restrictions have been imposed on the data. In a contingency table, the
cell frequencies of all columns but one (c-1) and of all rows but one (r-1) can
be assigned arbitrarily and so the number of degrees of freedom for all cell
frequencies is (c-1) (r-1), where ‘c’ refers columns and ‘r’ refers rows. Thus, in
a 2x2 table, the degrees of freedom would be (2-1) (2-1) = 1 and in a 3x3 table,
the df would be (3-1) (3-1) = 4.
8. One tailed and Two tailed Tests
One-tailed Test: A test in which the critical region is located in one tail of the
distribution of test of statistic is called one-tailed test. There are two types of
one-tailed test in test of hypothesis – (a) Right tailed test and (b) Left tailed test.
A test in which critical region is located in right tail of the distribution of test
statistic is called right tailed test or upper one tailed test:

A test in which critical region is located in left tail of the distribution of test
statistic is called left tailed test or lower one tailed test:

One tailed alternative hypothesis leads to one tailed test. Hypotheses of one
tailed test are:
a. H0: ϴ ≤ ϴ0 H1: ϴ > ϴ0
b. H0: ϴ ≥ ϴ0 H1: ϴ < ϴ0
Two-tailed Test: A test in which the critical region is located in two tails of the
distribution of test of statistic is called two-tailed test:

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 Two-sided alternative hypothesis leads to two-tailed test. The hypotheses are
represented as – H0: ϴ = ϴ0 ; H1: ϴ ≠ ϴ0
9. Directional and Non directional Tests
Non-directional Test: We may wish to test the null hypothesis H0:μ1− μ2 = 0
against the alternative H1:μ1− μ2 ≠ 0. This means that if H0 is rejected, the
decision is that a difference exists between the two means. No assertion is made
about the direction of the difference. Such a test is a nondirectional test. A test
of this kind is sometimes called a two-tailed or two-sided test, because if the
normal distribution or the distribution of t is used, the two tails of the
distribution are employed in the estimation of probabilities. Consider a 5%
significance level. If the sampling distribution is normal, 2.5% of the area of
the curve falls to the right of 1.96 standard deviation units above the mean, and
2.5% falls to the left of 1.96 standard deviation units below the mean:

Directional Test: Under certain circumstances we may wish to make a

decision about the direction of the difference. If concern with the direction
of the difference, we may test the hypothesis H0: μ1− μ2 ≤ 0

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 The alternative H1: μ1− μ2 > 0 or the hypothesis H0: μ1− μ2 ≥ 0 against
the alternative H1: μ1− μ2 < 0. The symbol H0 has been used to denote
three different hypotheses – (a) a hypothesis of no difference, (b) a
hypothesis of equal to or less than, and (c) a hypothesis of equal to or greater
than. Such tests are directional one-sided test. If the normal or t distribution
is used, one side or one tail only is employed to estimate the required
probabilities.
To reject H0: μ1− μ2 ≤ 0 and accept H1: μ1− μ2 > 0, using the normal
distribution, a normal deviate greater than +1.64 is required for significant
at the 0.05 level. Likewise, to reject H0: μ1− μ2 ≥ 0 and accept H1: μ1− μ2
< 0, the corresponding normal curve is less than -1.64. The fact that for a
normal distribution 5 percent of the area of the curve falls beyond +1.64
standard deviation units above the mean, and 5% beyond -1.64 standard
deviation units below the mean. The choice between a non-directional or
directional alternative hypothesis should be determined by the rationale that
gives rise to the study and should be made before the data are gathered. The
major advantage of a directional alternative hypothesis is that it takes less
of a deviation from expectation to reject the null hypothesis.

3.3.1 Statistical Errors in Hypothesis

In statistical test theory the notion of statistical error is an integral part of
hypothesis testing (Kumar, 2013). In an ideal world we would always reject the null
hypothesis when it is false, and we would not reject the null hypothesis when it is
indeed true. But there are two other scenarios that are possible, each of which will result
in an error.

Type I Error: A type I error, also known as an error of the first kind, occurs
when the null hypothesis (H0) is true, but is rejected. It is asserting something that is
absent, a false hit. A type I error may be compared with a so-called false positive (a
result that indicates that a given condition is present when it actually is not present) in

22
tests where a single condition is tested for. A false positive error, or in short false
positive, commonly called a ‘false alarm’, is a result that indicates a given condition
has been fulfilled, when it actually has not been fulfilled. A false positive error is a
Type I error where the test is checking a single condition, and results in an affirmative
or negative decision usually designated as ‘true or false’. The rate of the type I error is
called the size of the test and denoted by the Greek letter α (alpha). It usually equals
the significance level of a test. In the case of a simple null hypothesis α is the probability
of a type I error.

Type II Error: A type II error, also known as an error of the second kind, occurs
when the null hypothesis is false, but erroneously fails to be rejected. It is failing to
assert what is present, a miss. A type II error may be compared with a so-called false
negative (where an actual ‘hit’ was disregarded by the test and seen as a ‘miss’) in a
test checking for a single condition with a definitive result of true or false. A false
negative error, or in short false negative, is where a test result indicates that a condition
failed, while it actually was successful. A false negative error is a type II error occurring
in test steps where a single condition is checked for and the result can either be positive
or negative. The rate of the type II error is denoted by the Greek letter β (beta) and
related to the power of a test (which equals 1−β).

The example: As it is conjectured that adding fluoride to toothpaste protects

against cavities, the null hypothesis of no effect is tested. When the null hypothesis is
true (i.e., there is indeed no effect), but the data give rise to rejection of this hypothesis,
falsely suggesting that adding fluoride is effective against cavities, a type I error has
occurred. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false (i.e., adding fluoride
is actually effective against cavities), but the data are such that the null hypothesis
cannot be rejected, failing to prove the existing effect.

Table 3.1

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 Tabularized relations between truth/falseness of the null hypothesis and
outcomes of the test

Hence, when a statistical hypothesis is tested, there are four possible results:

a. When we accept H1 and H1 is true, this is a correct decision about nature.

b. When we accept H0 and H0 is true, this is also a correct decision about
nature.
c. The acceptance of H1 when H0 is true, is called a ‘Type I’ error. It’s
incorrect decision about nature.
d. The acceptance of H0 when H1 is true, is called a ‘Type II’ error. It’s also
incorrect decision about nature.

Frederick Mosteller (2006) argued that a ‘third kind of error’ was required to describe
circumstances he had observed, namely:

▪ Type I error: Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.

▪ Type II error: Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false.
▪ Type III error: Correctly rejecting the null hypothesis for the wrong reason.

Type I and type II errors are part of the process of hypothesis testing. Although
the errors cannot be completely eliminated, we can minimize one type of error.
Typically, when we try to decrease the probability one type of error, the probability for
the other type increases. We could decrease the value of alpha from 0.05 to 0.01,
corresponding to a 99% level of confidence. However, if everything else remains the
same, then the probability of a type II error will nearly always increase. Many times
the real world application of our hypothesis test will determine if we are more accepting
of type I or type II errors. This will then be used when we design our statistical
experiment.

24
3.3.2 Criteria for Evaluating Hypothesis
Some hypotheses are considered more satisfactory than others. The following
are the serious considerations of a satisfactory hypothesis and these criteria may be
helpful to make this judgement:

A. Plausibility of Explanation: Several criteria are involved in establishing the

plausibility of explanations. A satisfactory hypothesis should have relevant and
logical possibility about the relationship of variables included in them.
B. Testability of Explanation: The variables should be defined operationally and
the predicted relations among them can be tested empirically. The variables of
the hypothesis should be measurable or quantifiable. The suitable measuring
instrument is available or it can be considered easily.
C. Adequacy of Scope: The most useful hypotheses explain all the facts that are
relevant to the phenomena being explained and contradict none of them. The
broader the scope of a theory, the more valuable it is. The more consequences
that a hypothesis yields, the greater is its fruitfulness. A hypothesis is of greater
value if it establishes a generalization that can be applied in many areas of
education or in many fields. The most satisfactory hypotheses not only explain
all the known facts that gave rise to the original problems but also enable
scientists to make predictions about as yet unobserved events and relationships.
D. Usefulness of False Hypotheses: Hypotheses need not be the correct answers to
problems to be useful. In almost every inquiry a scholar formulates several
hypotheses and hopes that one will provide a satisfactory solution to the
problem. By eliminating the false hypotheses one by one the investigator keeps
narrowing the field in which the answer must lie. The testing of false hypotheses
is also of value if it directs the attention of scientists to unsuspected facts or
relations, they eventually help in solving the problem.
E. Roots in Existing Theories: A useful educational hypothesis, therefore, adds
something to previously established knowledge by supporting, qualifying,

25
 refuting or enlarging upon existing theories. A hypothesis that is compatible
with well attested theories is in a favorable position to advance knowledge. If
progress is to be made new hypotheses must fit into the framework of existing
theories and transform them into more perfect explanatory schemes. Thus, even
the more revolutionary theories are not completely different from the existing
edifice of knowledge.
F. Suitability for Intended Purpose: Each hypothesis that offers a satisfactory
explanation of what it intends to explain is useful for that purpose. Every
hypothesis serves a specific purpose and must be adequate for the purpose it
claims to serve. Thus, suitability is also the important criterion for an effective
hypothesis.
G. Simplicity of Explanation: If two hypotheses are capable to explain the same
facts, the simpler one is the better hypothesis. Simplicity means that the
hypothesis explains the phenomena with the least complexes theoretical
structure. The hypothesis that accounts for all facts with the fewest independent
or special assumptions and complexities is always preferable.
H. Levels of Explanation: The value of hypothesis can best be comprehended by
tracing their relationship to facts theories and laws. The scientists build
gradually a hierarchy of knowledge consisting of (a) facts (b) theories and (c)
laws below:
a) Hypotheses and Facts: A hypothesis is the first step in the direction of scientific
truth. In the hierarchy of scientific knowledge, it is the lowest on the scale. If
empirical evidence can be found to verify the hypothesis, it gains the status of
a fact. Thus, a fact is the verified hypothesis.
b) Hypotheses and Theories: A theory may contain several logically interrelated
hypotheses and postulates may be used as a synonym for hypotheses.
Hypotheses and theories are both conceptual in nature. A theory usually
provides a higher-level explanation than a hypothesis. A theory presents a
comprehensive conceptual scheme that may involve several related hypotheses

26
 and explain diverse phenomena, considerable empirical evidences are needed
to support it.
c) Hypotheses and Laws: Some hypotheses receive sufficient confirmation to lead
to the formulation of theories; some lead to the establishment of laws. Laws
utilize highly abstract concepts, for they provide the most comprehensive type
of explanations. Laws may explain phenomena that have been explained
previously by two or three theories. A law retains its lofty scientific status which
it claims to explain.

Hence, the basic criteria for evaluating research hypotheses are – (a) stated in
declarative form; (b) consistent with known facts, prior research, or theory; (c) logical
extension of the research problem; (d) states an expected relationship between two or
more variables; (e) can be tested; and (f) is clear and concise

27
 CHAPTER IV

CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION

4.1 Conclusion
In conclusion, formulating a hypothesis is a crucial step in the scientific research
process. A hypothesis is a testable prediction about the relationship between variables,
and it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It is essential to write a
hypothesis that is clear, concise, and testable, and it should be phrased in a way that
allows for falsifiability. the use of hypotheses is a critical step in the scientific method,
providing insights into research questions, theories, and practical applications. Whether
confirming or rejecting a hypothesis, the conclusion guides future research efforts and
contributes to the growth of knowledge in a given field.

The hypotheses in any scientific or research context is fundamental to the process

of inquiry and discovery. Hypotheses serve as educated guesses or predictions about
the relationship between variables in a study or experiment. The hypothesis should also
be supported by relevant data and evidence, and it should be revised as necessary
throughout the research process. By following these guidelines, researchers can
formulate hypotheses that can help guide their research and contribute to the
advancement of knowledge in their field.

4.2 Suggestion
By reading this paper the writers hopes that the readers can take lessons so that
they can be useful. And of course, the writers realize that in this paper there are many
weaknesses. The writers realized that many flaws in the writing of this paper, in terms
of material, technical, and presentation material. Therefore, we expect criticism and
constructive suggestion to refine the writing of this paper further. Last but not the least,
hopefully this paper can help the readers to gain more information and improve our
knowledge about Formulating Hypothesis. Thus, it is a joy if there are many criticisms

28
and suggestions from the reader as consideration for future paper. The researcher hopes
that another researcher will use another approach and explanation about how the
hypothesis there. The researcher suggests to the reader to read a lot of references
including this paper.

29
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