Shree Samarth Polytechnic, Mhasane Phata

WAC MICRO PROJECT

ACADEMIC YEAR : 2023-2024

TITLE OF PROJECT

Highway project costs estimating methods

used in the planning stage of project
development

PROGRAM CODE : CE5I

COURSE: Estimating & Costing.
COURSE CODE: 22501
GUIDED BY :

1
 Certificate

This is to certify that following student of fifth semester of diploma in civil engineering of
Institute Shree Samarth Polytechnic, Mhasane Phata. has completed the micro project
satisfactorily in subject Estimating & Costing for academic year 2023-24 asprescribed in the
curriculum.
SUBMITTED BY:-

Sr. Roll No. Name of student Enrollment No.

No.
1 1211 Shrimandilkar Shubham Dattatray 2114660143

PLACE: - Mhasane Phata

Date: - / /

…….………… ………………… ………………….

Head of Department Subject teacher Principal

2
5.0 Action plan

SR. Details of Activity. Planned Planned Name of

No Start date Finish date responsible

1 Collecting all information All Members

of project.

2 Management of part A All Members

3 Management of part B All Members

4 Finalizing the report All Members

5 Collecting Resources for All Members

Model

6 Prepare All Members

Model

7 Submission of project Vasim Pathan

3
6.0 Resources required

Sr. Name of specifications Qty

No resource/
material

1 Windows 1
Computer 10, 4GB RAM &
500GB storage

2 Internet wikipedia 1

3 MS office word 1

6.0 Names of Team Members with Roll Nos:-

Sr. Roll No. Name of student Enrollment No.

No.
1 1211 Shrimandilkar Shubham Dattatray 2114660143

4
 Aim of micro-project :-To provide quality of Highway project costs
estimating methods used in the planning stage of project.

Course outcome achieved

1.provided quality and quantity of Highway project costs estimating methods used inthe
planning stage of project development Utilities

Literature review

1. We have collected The Highway project costs estimating methods used in the
planning stage of project development

in tech-max and nirali publication book .

2. We take information of H i g h w a y p r o j e c t c o s t s e s t i m a t i n g
methodsusedintheplanningstageofproject
d e v e l o p m e n t in Nirali publication.

3. We take the information of important points in Highway project costs estimating

methods used in the planning stage of project development frominternet.

5
 INTRODUCTION

Cost estimation is an essential component of infrastructure projects. Accurate

estimation will assist project managers to choose adequate alternatives and to avoid
misjudging of technical and economic solutions. The accuracy of cost estimation
increases toward the end of the project due to detailed and precise information. The
conceptual phase is the first phase of a project in which the need is examined,
alternatives are assessed, the goals and objectives of the project are established and a
sponsor is identified (Wideman R. M, 1995).
Major difficulties which arise while conducting cost estimation during the conceptual
phase are lack of preliminary information, lack of database of road works costs, and
lack of up to date cost estimation methods. Additional difficulties arise due to larger
uncertainties as result of engineering solutions, socio-economical, and environmental
issues. Parametric cost estimation or estimation based on historic database during the
conceptual estimate phase is widely used in developed countries. However, developing
countries face difficulties related to the creation of a road work costs database, which
may be used for cost estimation in either the conceptual stage or the feasibility study of
a project cycle.

Methods of Cost Estimation in Projects

1) Expert Judgement Method
-Expertise should be considered from individuals or groups with specialized knowledge or training in
team and physical resource planning and estimating.

-Expert judgment, guided by historical information, provides valuable insight aboutthe environment
and information from prior similar projects.

-Expert judgment can also be used to determine whether to combine differentmethods of

estimation and how to reconcile differences between them.

2) Analogous Estimating Method

Analogous cost estimating uses the values such as scope, cost, budget, and duration or measures
of scale such as size, weight, and complexity from a previous, similar project as the basis for
estimating the same parameter ormeasurement for a current project.

When estimating costs, this technique relies on the actual cost of previous, similar

6
 projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project.

It is most reliable when the previous projects are similar in fact and not just in appearance, and
the project team members preparing the estimates have theneeded expertise.

3) Parametric Estimating Method

Parametric estimating uses an algorithm or a statistical relationship between historicaldata and other
variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate resource quantities needed for an activity,
based on historical data and project parameters.
For example, if an activity needs 4,000 hours of coding and it needs to finish it in 1 year, it will require
two people to code (each doing 2,000 hours a year). This techniquecan produce higher levels of accuracy
depending on the sophistication and underlying data built into the model.

4) Bottom-up Estimating Method

In the Bottom-up estimating method, team and physical resources are estimatedat the activity level
and then aggregated to develop the estimates for work packages, control accounts, and summary
project levels.

Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating a component of work. The costof individual work
packages or activities is estimated to the greatest level of specified detail. The detailed cost is
then summarized or rolled up to higher levels for subsequent reporting and tracking purposes.
The cost and accuracy of bottom-up cost estimating are typically influenced bythe size and
complexity of the individual activity or work package.

5) Three-Point Estimating Method

The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by considering estimation
uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to definean approximate range for an activity‘s
cost:

• Most likely (M): The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for
the required work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (O): The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for
the activity.
• Pessimistic (P): The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for
the activity.

7
Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three estimates the expected
cost, cE, can be calculated using a formula. Two commonly used formulas are triangular and beta
distributions. The formulas are:

Triangular DistributionE =
(O+M+P)/3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis)E =
(O+4M+P)/6
Cost estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide anexpected cost and
clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected cost.
The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by considering estimation
uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to definean approximate range for an activity‘s
cost:

• Most likely (M): The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for
the required work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (O): The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for
the activity.
• Pessimistic (P): The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for
the activity.

Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three estimates the expected
cost, cE, can be calculated using a formula. Two commonly used formulas are triangular and beta
distributions. The formulas are:

Triangular DistributionE =
(O+M+P)/3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis)E =
(O+4M+P)/6
Cost estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide anexpected cost and
clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected cost.
The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by considering estimation
uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to definean approximate range for an activity‘s
cost:

• Most likely (M): The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for
the required work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (O): The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for

8
 the activity.
• Pessimistic (P): The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for
the activity.

Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three estimates the expected
cost, cE, can be calculated using a formula. Two commonly used formulas are triangular and beta
distributions. The formulas are:

Triangular DistributionE =
(O+M+P)/3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis)E =
(O+4M+P)/6
Cost estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide anexpected cost and
clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected cost.

6) Data Analysis Method

A data analysis technique used in this process includes but is not limited to alternatives analysis.
Alternatives analysis is used to evaluate identified options in order to select the options or
approaches to use to execute and perform the work of the project. Alternatives analysis assists in
providing the best solution toperform the project activities, within the defined constraints.

Instead of overestimating each cost, money is budgeted for dealing with unplanned but statistically
predictable cost increases. Funds allocated for thispurpose are called contingency reserves.

7) Project Management Information System Method

Project management information systems can include resource management software that can help
plan, organize, and manage resource pools and developresource estimates.
Depending on the sophistication of the software, resource breakdown structures, resource
availability, resource rates, and various resource calendarscan be designed to assist in optimizing
resource utilization.

8) Decision-Making Method
Some decision techniques are unanimity, majority, plurality, points allocation, and dictatorship.
For unanimity, everyone must agree; there is a shared consensus. A majority or plurality is usually
determined by a vote. For a majority,the decision must be agreed to by more than half the
participants.

9
 Purpose of Construction Cost EstimationOwner’s
Purpose of Cost Estimation
-Making investment decision in the conceptual stage.
-Negotiate and finalize the contract at the implementation phase.
-To implement cost control measures.

Contractor‘s Purpose of Cost Estimate

-Determine project cost and profit.
-To Implement cost control measure.
-To develop data base for that can be used for future project.

Engineer‘s Purpose of Estimate

-Provide the owner with probable estimate.
-Evaluate alternatives.
Types of Construction Cost Estimation
Following are the different types of construction cost estimation:

1. Preliminary Cost Estimation

-A cost prediction based solely on size and/or capacity of a proposed project.
-Before any engineering or design is completed.
-Rely on broad data from already executed similar project
-relate cost in rupees to the main capacity/size parameter
-number of beds in hospital
-square feet of office space
-number of students in school Advantages
of Preliminary Estimates

-Allows a quick determination of the feasibility of a project

-A quick screening on alternatives, etc. (e.g., should it be a concrete buildingor a steel
building).
Purpose of Preliminary Estimates:

-Ranking alternatives
-Evaluate economics and financial feasibility
-As a check on more detailed estimates

2. Unit Price Cost Estimation

10
 Unit prices are obtained from data on projects already performed. Cost of labor, material, and
equipment for all units of work are added together anddivided by the number of units involved.
3. Assembly or Conceptual Cost Estimation

-Performed when conceptual design decisions are being made.

-Work package concept can be used to determine the element or assembly tobe studied
-We need a breakdown of cost of a completed project into its functionalelements to:
-Find the relationship between element cost and project cost
-Distribution of cost between constituent elements (sq. feet of
4. Detailed or Definitive Cost Estimation

-Prepared after drawings and specification are completed.

-Requires a complete quantity takeoff based on drawing and the complete setof contract
documents
-Need information on labor rate “productivity”, material cost, cost of rentingor purchasing
equipment
Factors influencing Construction Cost Estimation
1. Construction Project Time

-We base our estimate on the cost of existing -projects that were built in thepast
-Price-level changes over time
-We need to project costs of future projects
-Many organizations publish construction cost data on regular basis.
2. Cost Indices
Used to update old cost informationUses of
Cost Indices

-To update known historical costs for new estimates

-To estimate replacement cost for specific assets
-To provide for contract escalation
Limitations

-They represent composite data, average of many projects.

-They fail to recognize technological changes.

11
 -There is a reporting time log.
Cost of new facility = cost of old facility x (new cost index/old cost index)To predict
future cost

F = P (1 + i)n

F = future cost

P = present cost
i = predicted rate of cost escalation per period

n = number of periods (years)

3. Construction Project Location

-Some factors affecting cost in different locations are:

1) Transport cost
Taxes
2) Labor supply and
3) local productivity
4) Codes and
local inspection
-Construction costs also vary in different regions of the USA.
-ENR and Means publishes
periodicallythe indices of
local construction costs in
the major cities.
4. Project Size

-As the quantity built increases, the unit cost decreases,Size Factor =

(Proposed Size/Comparison Size)

UCM = Unit Cost Multiplier
UCM = SF-1
6. Other Factors

Hard to quantify but should be evaluated

12
-Quality
-Soil condition
-Weather Condition
-Competition
-Productivity

Table 4.1 represents highway construction cost indices and inflation trendsbased on data
received from
MDT. STE calculated yearly inflation trends by evaluating the percent change incost index from
one year
to the next.
Table 4.1 MDT Reported Highway Construction Cost Indices and STECalculated
Inflation Rates

DATA DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS

The ROCKS database was used for this research. This database contains road works cost data
from 65 developing countries. Among these countries Polandand Thailand have a relatively
large number of projects. For this reason they were chosen in this study to investigate the
relationship between project costand other variables such as work activity, terrain type, road
parameters etc.

The quality of the available database influences estimation accuracy regardless of the method
used. Two methods were used to increase the quality of the ROCKS database. One was filling
in missing data by using the expectation-maximization method and the other by generating
synthetic databy using Road Construction Cost (RCC) models (Tsunokawa, 1983).

Rcc Models.

New construction and reconstruction projects have the greatest share of construction
quantities such as site preparation, earthwork and drainage. Prediction of these construction
quantities can be done using the Road Construction Cost (RCC) model. RCC models were
developed to predict physical quantities of an average site clearing/grubbing and earthwork
volume. On the basis of a recommendation made by Tsunokawa K. (1987)following
empirical relationship is used to predict the approximate area ofsite clearing and grubbing:

13
New construction

ACG=1770 exp (0.0278 GRF) + 1610 exp (-0.0144 GRF) RW

Where:
EWV – The volume of earthwork per unit length of road, in m3/km H – Theeffective height of
earthwork, in meters, given by
H = 1.41 + 0.129G + 0.0139GRF
G – The rise plus fall differential, in m/km, given byG=GRF – RF
RF – The road rise plus fall, in m/km
RF is usually intended to be smoother than GRF. Therefore, it was assumed inthis study that, in
general RF is approximately equal to 80% of GRF. ACG and EWV are developed in relation to
terrain type and road width. In the ROCKS database terrain is presented in categorically, for
example: flat, rolling, hilly and mountainous. In order to convert these categorical values to
numerical values, the following range of GRF values were assumed in this study

Multiple regression model (MR)

Regression estimation models are well established and widely used in cost estimation. They
are effective due to a well-defined mathematical, as well asbeing able to explain the
significance of each variable and relationship between independent variables. Basically,
regression models are intended tofind the linear combination of independent variables which
best correlates with independent variables. The regression equation is expressed as follows:

Y = C + b1X1 + b2X3 + …+ bkXk

Where:
C – regression constant; b1,b2,…,bk – regression estimates; X1,…,Xk –independent variables; Y –
dependent variable.
The variables descriptions are mentioned in table 1 and table 2 for Poland and Thailand
respectively. The goal was to estimate regression coefficients ofequation (1.5). SPSS statistical
tool was employed to perform regression analysis. The adjusted R - square value (R2) is equal
to -0.82 for both cases Poland and Thailand. To test significance of model ANOVA (F test)
was performed.

4. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Artificial neural networks have been applied to almost every application areawhere a data set is
available and a good solution is sought. Artificial neural

14
 networks can cope with noisy data, missing data, imprecise or corrupted data, and still
produce a good solution (Nikola K., 1998). Among supervised learning artificial neural
networks multilayer perceptron (MLP) with backpropagation algorithm (further used as
ANN) achieved popularity in numerous research areas and this type ANN was tested in this
paper. One ofthe reasons for this was that it is a pioneer artificial neural network which
showed promise to solve ill-defined, complicated, complex problems which are hard to
describe in mathematical formula or expression.

REFERENCES:
15
1. SEARCH IN INTERNET

2. TEACHERS HELP

3. VARIOUS TYPES OF BOOK:

1. NIRALI PUBLICATION

2. TECH-MAX PUBLICATION BOOK

OUTPUTS OF THE MICROPROJECT

1) we study quality and quantity of Highway

Project Cost and estimating method

2) 2)we study the importance of planning

stage ofproject development

3) SKILL DEVELOP OF THIS MICROPROJECT

a) understanding

b) communation with group

member C)Unity

d) team work

16