Module 3 5
Module 3 5
Module 3 5
1
An organization’s mission is the reason for its existence. It is expressed in its’ mission
statement, which state the purpose of an organization. A mission statement serves as the basis
for organizational goals, which provide more detail and describe the scope of the mission. Goals
serve as a foundation for the development of organizational strategies.
Strategies are plans for achieving organizational goals. Strategies can be long term,
intermediate term, or short term. To be effective, strategies must be designed to support the
organization’s mission and its organizational goals.
STRATEGIES AND TACTICS
Strategies provide focus for decision making. Generally speaking organizations have
overall strategies called organizational strategies, which relate to the entire organization. They
also have functional strategies, which relate to each of the functional areas of the organization.
Tactics are the methods and actions used to accomplish strategies. They are more specific
than strategies, and they provide guidance and direction for carrying out actual operations, which
need the most specific and detailed plans and decision making in an organization.
STRATEGY FORMULATION
In formulating a successful strategy, organizations must take into account both order
qualifiers and order winners.
Order qualifiers are those characteristics that potential customers perceive as minimum
standards of acceptability for a product to be considered for purchase.
Order winners are those characteristics of an organization’s goods or services that cause
them to be perceived as better than the competition.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING is the considering of events and trends that present either
threats or opportunities for the organization. Generally these include competitors’ activities;
changing consumer needs; legal, economic, political, and environmental issues; the potential for
new markets; and the like.
2
3. Processing time – the time needed to produce goods or provide services
4. Changeover time – the time needed to change from producing one type of product or
service to another
5. Delivery time – the time needed to fill orders
6. Response time for complaints – these might be customer complaints about quality, timing
of deliveries, and incorrect shipments.
PRODUCTIVITY
Product = Output
Input
Methods
Capital
Quality
Technology
Management
MODULE 4
FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
FORECAST –. A statement about the future value of a variable of interest Forecast are a basic
input in the decision making processes of operations management because they provide
information on future demand.
3
Having a forecast of demand is essential for determining how much capacity or supply
will be needed to meet demand.
Forecast are the basis for budgeting, planning, capacity, sales, production and inventory,
personnel, purchasing and more.
Forecasts play an important role in the planning process because they enable managers to
anticipate the future so they can plan accordingly.
1. The expected level of demand can be a function of some structural variations, such as a
trend or seasonal variation.
2. The degree of accuracy that can be assigned to forecast. Forecast accuracy is a function
of the ability of forecasters to correctly model demand, random variation, and sometimes
unforeseen events.
o One is to help managers plan the system. Planning the system generally involves long
range plans about the types of products and services to offer, what facilitates and
equipment to have, where to locate, and so on.
4
o To help them plan the use of the system. Planning the use of the systems refers to short-
range and intermediate-range planning which involve tasks such as planning inventory
and workforce levels, planning purchasing and production, budgeting, and scheduling.
A wide variety of forecasting techniques are in use. In many respects, they are quite
different from each other, as you shall soon discover. Nonetheless, certain features are common
to all, and it is important to recognize them.
1. Forecasting techniques generally assume that the same underlying casual system that
existed in the past will continue to exist in the future.
2. Forecasts are not perfect; actual results usually differ from predicted values; the presence
of randomness precludes a perfect forecast.
3. Forecast for groups of items tend to be more accurate that forecasts for individual items
because forecasting errors among items in a group usually have a canceling effect.
4. Forecast accuracy decreases as the time period covered by the forecast – the time horizon
increases.
FORECAST ACCURACY
Accuracy and control forecasts are a vital aspect for forecasting, so forecasters want to
minimize forecast errors.
Forecast errors is the difference between the value that occurs and the value that was
predicted for a given time period. Hence, Error = Actual – Forecast:
et = At – Ft
5
o Positive errors results when the forecast is too low, negative errors when the forecast is
too high.
o Forecast errors influence decisions in two somewhat different ways.
o One is making a choice between various alternatives;
o Evaluating the success or failure of a technique in use
APPROACHES TO FORECASTING
The following pages present a variety of forecasting techniques that are classified as
judgmental, time-series or associative.
- Judgmental forecast – this are forecast that use subjective inputs such as opinion from
consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts.
Executive opinions – a small group of upper-level managers may meet and
collectively develop a forecast. This approach is often used as a part of long-range
planning and new product development.
Sales force opinions – members of the sales staff or the customer service staff are
often good sources of information because of their direct contact with consumers.
They are often aware of any plans the customer may be considering for the future.
Consumer surveys – because it is the consumers who ultimately determine
demand, it seems natural to solicit input from them. In some instances, every
customer or potential customer can be contacted.
Delphi method – It is an iterative process intended to achieve a consensus
forecast. This method involves circulating a series of questionnaires among
individuals who possess the knowledge and ability to contribute meaningfully.
- Time-series forecast – forecast that project patterns identified in recent time-series
observations.
Trend – refers to a long-term upward or downward movement in the data.
Seasonality – refers to short-term, fairly regular variations generally related to
factors such as the calendar or time of the day.
Cycles – are wavelike variations of more than one year’s duration.
Irregular variation – are due to unusual circumstances such as severe weather
conditions, strikes, or a major change in a product or service.
Random variations – are residual variations that remain after all other behaviors
have been accounted for.
- Associative model – forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict
future demand.
6
7
MODULE 5
PRODUCT AND SERVICE DESIGN
The various activities and responsibilities and service design include the following
(functional interactions are shown in parentheses):
1. Translate customer wants and needs into products and service requirements. (marketing,
operations)
2. Refine existing products and services. (marketing)
3. Develop new products and/or services. (marketing, operations)
4. Formulate quality goals. (marketing, operations)
5. Formulate cost targets. (accounting, finance, operations)
6. Construct and test prototypes. (operations, marketing, engineering)
7. Document specifications.
8. Translate product and service specifications into process specifications (engineering,
operations)
Product and service design has typically had strategic implications for the success and
prosperity of an organization. The main forces that initiate design or redesign are market
opportunities and threats. The factors that give rise to market opportunities and threats can be
one or more changes.
Economic – (low demand, excessive warranty claims, the need to reduce cost)
Social and demographic – (aging baby boomers, population shifts)
Political, liability, or legal – government changes, safety issues, new regulations)
Competitive – (new or changed products or services, new advertising/promotions
Cost or availability – (raw materials, components, labor)
Technological – (in product components, processes)
Produce designs that are consistent with the goals of the organization.
8
Give customers the value they expect.
Make health and safety a primary concern.
SUSTAINABILITY
Product and service design is a focal point in the quest for sustainability. Key aspects
include life cycle assessment, reduction of costs and materials used, reuse of parts of returned
products, and recycling.
1. LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT (LCA) – also known as life cycle analysis, is the
assessment of the environmental impact of a product or service throughout its useful life.
2. THE THREE Rs – REDUCE, REUSE AND RECYCLE – designers often reflect on
three particular aspects of potential cost saving and reducing environmental impact:
reducing the use of materials through value analysis; refurbishing and then reselling
returned goods that are deemed to have additional useful life, which is referred to as
remanufacturing; and reclaiming parts of unusable products for recycling.
3. REDUCE: VALUE ANALYSIS – value analysis refers to an examination of the
function parts and materials in an effort to reduce the cost and/or improve the
performance of a product.
4. REUSE: REMANUFACTURING – remanufacturing refers to refurbishing used
products by replacing worn-out or defective components, and reselling products.
5. RECYCLE – recycling is sometimes consideration for designers. Recycling means
recovering materials for future use. Companies recycle for a variety of reason including;
Cost saving
Environment concerns
Environment regulation
The pressure to recycle has given rise to the term design for recycling (DFR),
referring to product design that takes into account the ability to
disassemble a used product to recover the recyclable parts.
RELIABILITY
Failure is used to describe a situation in which an item does not perform as intended.
This includes not only instances in which an item does not function at all, but also instances in
which the item’s performance is substandard or it functions in a way not intended.
Reliabilities are always specified with respect to certain conditions, called normal operation
conditions. This can include load, temperature and humidity ranges as well as operating
procedures and maintenance schedules.
9
IMPROVING RELIABILTY
SERVICE DESIGN
10
service. Many services are not pure services, but part of a product bundle – the combination of
goods and services provided to a customer.
11