Worksheet - Confidence Interval

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WORKSHEET

1. A producer, Karan Manohar, wants to produce a series for an OTT platform.


His market research team suggested to invest in family soaps. The average
television rating points (TRP) for popular family soaps in Netflix was
estimated on the basis of 50 episodes is 0.02. TRP is the proportion of people
watching the serial. Compute the 90% confidence interval for the average
population TRP for popular family soaps in Netflix.

(i) State the assumptions that you have to make for finding this interval. Could
you check these assumptions?

(ii) Suppose the statistician in his market research team claims that the average
population TRP for the popular family soaps is 0.03. Based on a 90%
confidence interval, would you reject this claim?

2. In a study to determine the percentage of children that are overdue for


vaccination in a small town, the researcher took a sample out of 580 children
served by the only hospital in town.
(i) What sample size would be necessary to estimate the proportion with 95%
confidence with a margin of error 0.107.
(ii) Suppose a sample of 120 was taken, of whom 27 were not overdue for
vaccination. Give a 95% confidence interval for the percentage of children not
overdue for vaccination.

3. Suppose a car manufacturing company claims that the average mileage of


model M is 20 (distance it could travel with one gallon of gas). The average
and the standard deviation of mileages of 16 individuals owning car of model
M, who are chosen at random, are found to be 19.5 and 4, respectively. (i)
Could you state based on a 95% confidence interval, that the average mileage is
different from 20? Explain.
(ii) State the assumptions that you have made for finding this interval.

4. Time taken to manufacture an aircraft door is a random variable due to several


manual processes and assembly of more than 1000 parts to make the aircraft
door. The sources of variability in door assembly include factors like non-
availability of parts, manpower, machine tools etc. Based on a sample of 50
doors, the average and standard deviation of the time taken to manufacture the
door was estimated to be 900 hours and 324 hours respectively. Calculate the
95% confidence interval for the average time require to manufacture an aircraft
door.

5. Suppose an airline assures its customers that the average check in time at the
counter should not exceed 15 minutes. A frequent traveller took 40 flights of
the same airline in last six months from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International
airport observed that the average and standard deviation of check in times are
10 and 2 minutes respectively.
(i) Find a 95% confidence interval?
(ii) State the assumptions that you have made for drawing your conclusion.

6. (Refer to Question 4) The workshop manager at the workshop of the aircraft door
manufacturer was tasked to estimate the 95% confidence interval for the average
time required to manufacture an aircraft door with a desired precision of 60
hours. From his experience, the workshop manager mentioned that the time
required to manufacture an aircraft door vary by 300 hours. Based on the
information, how many optimum number of aircraft doors needs to be sampled.

7. Billing fraud by health care providers (hospitals, doctors and others) is a


widespread problem to a country’s health care system. Healthcare providers in
the country are also known to contribute towards insurance fraud by
overcharging, billing for services not provided, doing unwarranted procedures
and excessive investigations, or extending the length of the patient’s hospital
stay, among other ways. Fraud and abuse in healthcare insurance costs the
industry crores every year. The health insurance industry in India loses
approximately Rs 600-800 crores annually to fraudulent claims. As the country
embarks on a mission to cover 40% of the country’s population, benefitting 10
crore families with state-sponsored health insurance under the proposed
scheme of Ayushman Bharat – Pradhan Mantri Jan Aarogya Yojana and other
state government schemes, the billing fraud might rise and will add to the
exchequer’s pocket. Since this is a long and costly battle to find the billing
fraud, strategy needs to be planned to identify regions that have a high
concentration of fraud claims and blacklisting corresponding pin codes in all
states. (ref: https://www.optum.in/thought-leadership/library/prevent-fraud-
abuse/download-prevent-fraud.html)

Suppose the Gujarat state government asks you to join a small group within the
state’s health department to study the billing fraud. One related problem you
have in hand is to estimate of the average fraud amount from rural regions of
Anand district. You figured out that the billing fraud amount in rural regions in
Gujarat vary by Rs. 3 Lakh. Cost of studying one bill was found to be Rs. 0.01
Lakh (Rs. 1000). What is the sample size you will have in your study?

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