Sketchers Financial Model
Sketchers Financial Model
Sketchers Financial Model
INPUTS
Color Coding
Blue Font: Street/sell side Assumptions
Green Font: Assumptions
Black Font: Numbers reported by the company (either in a press release, presentation, filing or a conf
6/24E
6.6% 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% -0.3% 0.3% 0.03%
327.2% 353.5% 68.3% 75.7% 77.4% 82.5% 87.7% 92.1% 96.1% 102.5%
48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0%###
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.8% 12.0% 12.0% 12.2% 12.4% 12.6%###
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.7% 7.9% 8.1%###
0.081 0.081 0.081
23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0%
0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
66 67 67 68 64 66 71 67 67 67 67
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 ###
0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%###
6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
$2,000 $2,000 $756 $825 $871 $848 $1,276 $1,381 $1,452 $1,417
$50 $50 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2027 2028
3/27E 6/27E 9/27E 12/27E 3/28E 6/28E 9/28E 12/28E
67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67
20 20 20 20 ### 20 20 20 20
2024
3/24A 6/24E
Scenarios Defined
Scenario 1 = Base Case
Scenario 2 = Bull Case
Scenario 3 = Bear Case
11.0% 11.0% ### 11.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.8% ### 12.0% 12.2% 12.4%
8.0% 8.0% ### 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% ### 9.0% 9.2% 9.4%
14.0% 14.0% ### 14.2% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% ### 15.0% 15.2% 15.4%
11.0% 11.0% ### 11.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.8% ### 12.0% 12.2% 12.4%
48.0% 48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0%
45.0% 45.0% ### 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% ### 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
51.0% 51.0% ### 51.0% 51.0% 51.0% 51.0% ### 51.0% 51.0% 51.0%
48.0% 48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0%
026 2027 2028
12/26E 3/27E 6/27E 9/27E 12/27E 3/28E 6/28E 9/28E 12/28E
12.6% ### 12.8% 13.0% 13.2% 13.4% ### 13.6% 13.8% 14.0% 14.2%
9.6% ### 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% ### 10.6% 10.8% 11.0% 11.2%
15.6% ### 15.8% 16.0% 16.2% 16.4% ### 16.6% 16.8% 17.0% 17.2%
12.6% ### 12.8% 13.0% 13.2% 13.4% ### 13.6% 13.8% 14.0% 14.2%
48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0%
45.0% ### 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% ### 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
51.0% ### 51.0% 51.0% 51.0% 51.0% ### 51.0% 51.0% 51.0% 51.0%
48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% ### 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0%
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
REVENUE BUILD
Revenue Build Up
Domestic Wholesale $378 130.738 537.53 80.336
International Wholesale $575 $385 $763 $534
Total Wholesale 953.15 $516 $1,301 $614
YoY Growth
QoQ Growth -45.9% 152.1% -52.8%
Revenue
Total Revenue $1,242 $729 $1,315 $1,311
YoY Growth
QoQ Growth -41.28% 80.24% -0.30%
Notes:
$1,186 $4,707 1. Sketcher USA used to sell product outside of USA. But after 2021 , Sketcher USA Inc
2. There is a significant growth in Sketcher USA's Direct to Consumer sales rather than
$1,186 $4,707
2.8% 1.9%
0.4%
### $4,078,527,513
2808.5% 2814.5%
119.8%
### $4,078,532,221
2809%
2808.50%
ut after 2021 , Sketcher USA Inc is considered to be a separate independent unit. International sales revenue is no longer included in the S
ct to Consumer sales rather than wholesale revenue growth by geography. As post Covid Sketcher USA is focusing on online sales.
is no longer included in the Sketchers USA's Financial Statements.
sing on online sales.
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue
Wholesale $953 $516 $1,301 $614 $3,384 $1,087 $1,150 $1,063 $1,164 $4,464 $1,251
Direct to Consumer $289 $214 $14 $696 $1,213 $342 $508 $488 $484 $1,822 $568
Total Revenue $1,242 $729 $1,315 $1,311 $4,597 $1,428 $1,658 $1,551 $1,648 $6,285 $1,820
% growth (41%) 80% (0%) 9% 16% (6%) 6% 37% 10%
Cost of Sales $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cost of Services $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Cost of Sales $695 $361 $676 $676 $2,408 $749 $808 $782 $847 $3,186 $995
Cost of Sales Margin 56% 49% 51% 52% 52% 52% 49% 50% 51% 51% 55%
profit $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Gross Profit $548 $369 $639 $635 $2,190 $680 $849 $769 $801 $3,099 $824
Total Gross Margin % 44.1% 50.5% 48.6% 48.4% 47.6% 47.6% 51.2% 49.6% 48.6% 49.3% 45.3%
Operating Expenses
Sales & Marketing Expenses $74 $60 $86 $98 $318 $85 $141 $128 $145 $500 $108
Sales & Marketing Expenses (as % of Revenue 6.0% 8.3% 6.5% 7.5% 6.0% 8.5% 8.2% 8.8% 5.9%
R&D Expenses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
R&D Expenses (as % of Revenue) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
G&A Expenses $434 $372 $450 $498 $1,754 $443 $511 $503 $570 $2,027 $540
G&A Expenses (as % of Revenue) 34.9% 51.0% 34.2% 38.0% 31.0% 30.8% 32.4% 34.6% 29.7%
Total Operating Expenses $508 $432 $536 $596 $2,072 $528 $652 $631 $715 $2,526 $648
EBITDA $40 ($64) $103 $39 $118 $152 $197 $139 $86 $573 $176
EBITDA % 3.2% -8.7% 7.8% 3.0% 2.6% 10.6% 11.9% 8.9% 5.2% 9.1% 9.7%
Other Income $3 $5 $8 ($16) $0 $0 $2 $0 ($2) $0 $0
Interest Income $2 $2 $2 $0 $6 $1 $0 $0 ($1) $0 $0
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
CASHFLOW STATEMENT
Check
$8,544 $6,299 $4,753 $5,464 $5,464
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
BALANCE SHEET
Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents $2,669 $4,110 $3,510 $3,868 $4,145 $4,145 $1,285 $4,052 $3,724 $6,195 $6,195 $8,544 $6,299 $4,753 $616 $616
Short-term Investments $1,673 $2,269 $2,532 $2,661 $3,802 $3,802 $106 $5,231 $5,768 $5,771 $5,771 $6,479 $3,351 $4,638 $102 $102
Trade Accounts Receivables $4,924 $2,153 $2,332 $2,573 $6,174 $6,174 $799 $3,445 $3,316 $7,786 $7,786 $3,174 $4,074 $4,019 $848 $848
Other receivables $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $71 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $86 $86
Inventory $788 $786 $786 $813 $926 $926 $1,067 $948 $1,017 $1,146 $1,146 $8 $8 $8 $1,818 $1,818
Prepaid expense and others $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $137 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $176 $176
Other Current Assets $629 $717 $743 $1,111 $916 $916 $0 $1,170 $1,121 $991 $991 $1,081 $1,321 $1,305 $0 $0
Total Current Assets $10,683 $10,035 $9,903 $11,026 $15,963 $15,963 $3,465 $14,846 $14,946 $21,889 $21,889 $19,286 $15,053 $14,723 $3,646 $3,646
Property, plant and equipment, net $2,051 $2,243 $2,283 $2,365 $2,375 $2,375 $993 $2,528 $2,564 $2,459 $2,459 $2,490 $2,711 $2,768 $1,345 $1,345
Operating lease right-of-use assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,159 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,201 $1,201
Deferred tax assets $12,851 $14,648 $13,199 $25,022 $25,134 $25,134 $63 $26,301 $26,313 $26,318 $26,318 $26,640 $48,103 $47,951 $454 $454
Long-term investments $1,302 $1,548 $1,614 $1,760 $1,963 $1,963 $124 $2,555 $3,927 $3,909 $3,909 $3,944 $4,105 $4,004 $70 $70
Goodwill $1,232 $1,149 $1,105 $1,103 $1,348 $1,348 $93 $1,309 $1,462 $1,715 $1,715 $8 $8 $8 $93 $93
Other assets, net $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $88 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $46 $83 $83
Total non-current assets $2,420 $3,333 $5,034 $8,468 $7,718 $7,718 $2,521 $7,615 $7,314 $7,272 $7,272 $6,944 $12,823 $11,951 $3,247 $3,247
Total Assets $30,585 $33,002 $33,184 $49,790 $54,547 $54,547 $5,986 $55,200 $56,572 $63,608 $63,608 $59,357 $82,848 $81,450 $6,893 $6,893
Liabilities
Accounts payable $2,688 $2,903 $2,347 $2,881 $3,433 $3,433 $808 $3,485 $3,546 $4,355 $4,355 $3,439 $4,274 $4,231 $957 $957
Accrued expenses $165 $180 $206 $228 $180 $180 $184 $1,020 $1,088 $1,156 $1,156 $1,224 $2,029 $1,481 $294 $294
Operating lease liabilities $2,523 $2,723 $2,141 $2,653 $3,253 $3,253 $217 $2,465 $2,458 $3,199 $3,199 $2,215 $2,245 $2,750 $239 $239
Current installments of long-term borrowings $8,564 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $61 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $103 $103
Short-term borrowings $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,339 $0 $20 $20
Total Current Liabilities $11,252 $2,903 $2,347 $2,881 $3,433 $3,433 $1,271 $3,485 $3,546 $4,355 $4,355 $3,439 $5,613 $4,231 $1,613 $1,613
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity $44,513 $28,663 $27,883 $44,763 $46,190 $46,190 $5,985 $50,824 $52,830 $55,591 $55,591 $54,857 $88,008 $86,820 $6,893 $6,893
Balance Sheet Check ($13,928) $4,339 $5,301 $5,027 $8,357 8,357 $0 $4,376 $3,742 $8,017 8,017 $4,500 ($5,160) ($5,370) 0 0
Working capital $7,132 $7,556 $8,145 $12,530 $12,530 $2,193 $11,361 $11,400 $17,534 $17,534 $15,847 $9,440 $10,492 $2,033 $2,033
Changes in working capital $424 $589 $4,385 ($10,337) $9,168 $39 $6,134 $5,004 ($1,688) ($6,407) $1,052 ($15,501) ($15,501)
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
OTHER WORKINGS
PPE
PPE, Gross $3,724 $3,724 $3,724 $3,724 $3,724 $3,724
Less: Accumulated Depreciation $1,481 $1,441 $1,359 $1,349 $1,349 $1,206
PPE, Net $2,243 $2,283 $2,365 $2,375 $2,375 $2,518
Depreciation
Timeframe for Amortization
Amount Amortized
as % of Total Revenue
Actuals Actuals
2021 2022
6/21 9/21 12/21 FY21 3/22 6/22 9/22 12/22 FY22
$9 $9 $9 $9 $34 $9 $9 $9 $9 $34
$9 $9 $9 $9 $34 $9 $9 $9 $9 $34
$17 $17 $17 $17 $68 $17 $17 $17 $17 $68
$3,724 $3,724 $3,724 $3,724 $2,807 $2,864 $3,019 $3,597 $6,197 $6,197
$856 $349 $210 $22 $1,300 $73 $199 $744 $3,250 $3,250
$2,868 $3,375 $3,514 $3,702 $1,507 $2,790 $2,819 $2,853 $2,947 $2,947
$179 $203 $198 $218 $798 $57 $155 $579 $2,600 $3,391
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
$9 $9 $9 $9 $34 $9 $9 $9 $9
$9 $9 $9 $9 $34 $9 $9 $9 $9
$17 $17 $17 $17 $68 $17 $17 $17 $17
$34 $9 $9 $9 $9 $34 $9 $9 $9
$34 $9 $9 $9 $9 $34 $9 $9 $9
$68 $17 $17 $17 $17 $68 $17 $17 $17
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0### $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0### $0 $0 $0
6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Projected
2028
1/28E FY28E
$9 $34 Assumption:
$9 $34
$17 $68 Total employee stock option will be 68 in the following years
$6,698 $6,698
$11,306 $11,306
($4,608) ($4,608)
$32 $128
2.7%
$522 $2,073
3.2
$0 $0
$0 $0
6.0%
#NAME?
#VALUE!
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
($ in '000s)
Incorporating depreciation schedules into a model is part science and part art. As a general rule, a company's book depreciation will be relatively smooth since companies will seek to limit the variability of the depreciation impact on earnings. Creating a smooth
a model, however, is not always simple when utilizing formulas to derive depreciation. As such, it may be necessary to smooth certain book depreciation forecasts by hand.
Incorporating depreciation schedules into a model is part science and part art. As a general rule, a company's book depreciation will be relatively smooth since companies will seek to limit the variability of the depreciation impact on earnings. Creating a smooth
a model, however, is not always simple when utilizing formulas to derive depreciation. As such, it may be necessary to smooth the embedded base book depreciation forecasts by hand. The embedded base for book and tax may be different if the company has a
its balance sheet that is directly related to accelerated depreciation. If a DTL exists, the embedded base differences can be backed into, based upon the DTL balance (see reference formula below).
PP&E, net
New Operating Lease - additions during the year #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
There are a variety of methods that can be used to forecast the book depreciation associated with new capex. Regardless of the method used, the forecasts should dynamically change with the model and provide flexibility in changing key assumptions (such as u
example of a good method for projecting book depreciation of new capex.
Embedded
Base #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
$993 $0 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50
(45.000%) 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Useful Life
(In Years) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5 0.5 1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
There are a variety of methods that can be used to forecast the book depreciation associated with new capex. Regardless of the method used, the forecasts should dynamically change with the model and provide flexibility in changing key assumptions (such as u
example of a good method for projecting book depreciation of new capex.
Embedded
Base #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? $328 $268 $199 $139 $60 $0 $0 $0
0.000% 33% 27% 20% 14% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Useful Life
(In Years)
5 20% 32% 19% 12% 12% 6% 0% 0%
Year Capex #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2022 $13,970 2,794 4,470 2,682 1,609 1,609 805 0
2023 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2026 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2027 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2028 #NAME? #NAME?
2029 #NAME?
2030 #NAME?
2031 #NAME?
2032 #NAME?
Total Tax Depreciation $328 $3,062 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Macrs Schedule (half-year convention) depreciation factor Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11
3 33.3% 44.5% 14.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 20.0% 32.0% 19.2% 11.5% 11.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 14.3% 24.5% 17.5% 12.5% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 5.0% 9.5% 8.6% 7.7% 6.9% 6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%
20 3.8% 7.2% 6.7% 6.2% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
#NAME?
0
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0
0% 0% 0% 0%
($ in '000s)
Book Earnings Before Tax #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Book Tax Expense #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Beginning NOL Balance $0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
NOL Utilization #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
New NOL #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Ending NOL Balance #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Levered Taxable Income - Post NOL #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Levered Cash Taxes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Beginning NOL Balance $0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
NOL Utilization #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
New NOL #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Ending NOL Balance #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Unlevered Taxable Income - Post NOL #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Unlevered Cash Taxes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Deferred Tax Asset / (Liability) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Levered Cash Taxes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Deferred Tax Liability / (Asset) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Total Book Tax Expense #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
BOP DTA / (DTL) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
New DTA / (DTL) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
EOP DTA / (DTL) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Deferred tax assets #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Deferred tax liability #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
($ in '000s)
Beginning Cash Balance $4,145 $0 $1,285 $4,052 $3,724 $6,195 $6,195 $0 $8,544 $6,299 $4,753 $616
Levered Free Cash Flow 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,544 6,299 4,753 5,464 5,464
Equity Issuance / (Repurchase) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mandatory Debt Repayments 0 0 (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48)
Less: Minimum Cash Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Available for Revolver $4,145 $0 $1,237 $4,004 $3,676 $6,147 $6,147 $8,496 $14,795 $11,004 $10,169 $6,032
Revolver Drawdown / (Repayment)
Cash Available After Revolver $4,145 $0 $1,237 $4,004 $3,676 $6,147 $6,147 $8,496 $14,795 $11,004 $10,169 $6,032
Plus: Minimum Cash Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ending Cash Balance $4,145 $0 $1,237 $4,004 $3,676 $6,147 $6,147 $8,496 $14,795 $11,004 $10,169 $6,032
Debt Balances
Revolver
Beginning Balance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Drawdown / (Repayment)
Ending Balance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
LT Debt
Beginning Balance $718 $670 $622 $574 $526 $478 $431 $383 $335 $287
Drawdown / (Repayment) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48) (48)
Ending Balance $718 $670 $622 $574 $526 $478 $431 $383 $335 $287 $239
Revolver
Average Balance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interest Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Interest Expense $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
LT Debt
Average Balance $718 $694 $646 $598 $550 $502 $454 $407 $359 $311 $263
Interest Rate 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
Interest Expense $0 $0 $39 $36 $33 $31 $28 $25 $23 $20 $17 $15
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue Growth
FCF Margin
Actuals Actuals
2021 2022
10/20 1/21 FY21 4/21 7/21 10/21 1/22
182151%
-49%
Actuals Actuals
2023
FY22 4/22 7/22 10/22 1/23 FY23 4/23
281212% 349557%
131% 4%
Actuals Projected Projected
2024 2025
7/23 10/23E 1/24E FY24E 4/24E 7/24E 10/24E
12705620%
4%
ected Projected
2025 2026
1/25E FY25E 4/25E 7/25E 10/25E 1/26E FY26E
192433188% ###
48% 39%
Projected Projected
2027 2028
4/26E 7/26E 10/26E 1/27E FY27E 4/27E 7/27E
###
44%
Projected
2028
10/27E 1/28E FY28E
###
51%
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
DCF VALUATION
($'s in Millions) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
FY20A FY21A FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E
Revenue $4,597 $6,285 $7,445 $8,000 $131,289 ### ### ### ###
Revenue Growth (%) 37% 18% 7% 1541% 1369% 703% 804% 2814%
EBITDA $118 $573 $547 $785 $49,562 $702,758 ### ### ###
Less: Unlevered Cash Taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Less: Capex ($643) ($710) ($717) ($798) ($3,391) ($120) ($126) ($126) ($128)
Less: Increases in Working Capital ($2,954) $9,922 $316 ($40,799) $218,397 $484,957 ### ###
Unlevered Free Cash Flow ($525) ($3,091) $9,751 $302 $5,372 $921,035 ### ### ###
Unlevered FCF margin -11% -49% 131% 4% 4% 48% 39% 44% 51%
End of Year Date 01/31/20 01/31/21 01/31/22 01/31/23 01/31/24 01/31/25 01/31/26 01/31/27 01/31/28
CF Adjustment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Adjusted Free Cash Flow $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,372 $921,035 ### ### ###
End of Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Discount Factor 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50
PV Factor
9.0% 0.983 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.958 0.879 0.806 0.740 0.679
9.5% 0.982 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.956 0.873 0.797 0.728 0.665
10.0% 0.981 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.953 0.867 0.788 0.716 0.651
10.5% 0.980 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.951 0.861 0.779 0.705 0.638
11.0% 0.979 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.949 0.855 0.770 0.694 0.625
PV of Cash Flows
9.0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,145 $809,350 ### ### ###
9.5% $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,134 $803,812 ### ### ###
10.0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,122 $798,338 ### ### ###
10.5% $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,110 $792,926 ### ### ###
11.0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,099 $787,574 ### ### ###
SKETCHERS USA Inc.
WACC
1
Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta / (1 + (Debt/Equity) * (1 - Tax Rate))
Relevered Beta = Average Unlevered Beta * (1 + (Debt/Equity) * (1 - Tax Rate))
2
10 year U.S. Treasury Rate as of 9/19/23 https://in.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield
(in millions except per share) Share Shares Market Debt Debt / Debt /
Company Ticker Price O/S Cap Cap Equity
ADOBE NKE $608.41 455 $277,100 $4,046 1.4% 1.5%
Adidas AG. ADS $377.10 7,430 $2,802,000 $54,718 1.9% 2.0%
Puma SE PUM $324.70 2,571 $834,922 $25,224 2.9% 3.0%
VF Corporation VFC $116.32 2,739 $318,645 $86,420 21.3% 27.1%
Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW $158.45 1,170 $185,339 $9,547 4.9% 5.2%
datafile/ctryprem.html
1. Liquidity (Safety)
a. Current ratio (x)
b. Quick ratio (x)
c. Accounts Receivable Turnover (x)
d. Days in Receivable
2. Productivity (Efficiency)
a. Inventory Turnover (x) 1.47x 1.53x 1.46x 1.39x Current ratio
b. Days in Inventory 1.05 1.09 0.99 0.87 Quick ratio (
c. Total Asset Turnover (x) 3.00x 2.49x 2.93x 3.33x Accounts Re
d. Total Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 121.47x 146.71x 124.42x 109.75x Days in Rec
e. Days in Payables 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Productivity
f. Cash Conversion Cycle 3.48 2.76 2.70 2.68 Inventory Tu
3. Profitability (Performance)
a. Operating profit margin (%) 68.58% 53.30% 61.56% 72.52% Total Asset
b. Return on Asset (%) 416.92% 336.65% 421.60% 494.07% Total Fixed
c. Return on Sales, net profit margin (%) 5545.71% 7097.54% 7860.06% 7279.22% Days in Pay
d. Return on Equity (%) 17089.21% 20779.07% 18114.01% 17326.12% Cash Conver
e. Return Over Invested Capital (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Profitabilit
f. Sustainable Growth (%) 15.41% 10.91% 13.49% 13.30% Operating pr
4. Insolvency (Leverage)
a. Debt Ratio (%) 11.33% 7.18% 12.73% 11.28% Return on Sa
b. Asset to Equity (Equity Multiplier) (x) 0.42x 0.19x 0.39x 0.42x Return on Eq
c. Current Liabilities to Total Debt Ratio (%) 12.53% 6.85% 10.01% 11.81% Return Over
d. Interest Coverage (x) 0.28x 0.05x 0.27x 0.26x Sustainable
e. Total Debt 0 0 0 0 Insolvency
f. Total Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.81x 0.80x 0.80x 0.81x Debt Ratio
g. Total Debt to Net Worth 5.36x 5.09x 5.01x 5.16x Asset to Equi
7. Margins
a. Revenue Growth (%) Ra
b. COGS (excluding D&A) as % of Sales
c. Gross Profit
d. Gross Margin (%)
e. SG&A as % of Sales
f. R&D as % of Sales
g. EBITDA
h. EBITDA Margin
i. NOPAT
j. Effective Tax Rate
k. Capex as % of Sales
2023 F 2024 F 2025 F 2026 F 2027 F
2.38x
($ in millions)
EBITDA #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Less: Unlevered Cash Taxes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Less: Capex 0 (13,970) (12,573) (13,202) (13,862) (14,555) (15,283) (16,047) (16,849) (17,691) (18,576) (19,505)
Less: Increases in Working Capital 0 10,337 (9,168) (39) (6,134) (5,004) 0 1,688 6,407 (1,052) 15,501 15,501
Unlevered Free Cash Flow #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Less: Tax-affected Interest #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Levered Free Cash Flow #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!