Charania SocialMediasPotential 2016
Charania SocialMediasPotential 2016
Charania SocialMediasPotential 2016
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide
range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and
facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at
https://about.jstor.org/terms
National Military Intelligence Foundation is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and
extend access to American Intelligence Journal
OVERVIEW BACKGROUND
T
he importance of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)—
T
his article discusses the benefits and challenges that
social media poses to intelligence collectors within the intelligence gathered from publicly available
context of counterterrorism. On one hand, social media sources—has increased in recent years, especially
can provide insight on the broader goals of terrorist with the popularity that the Internet has gained since the
organizations, their targets, and their research interests. It early 2000s. Although OSINT is not limited to the Internet,
can also be helpful in gauging public opinion, particularly that particular medium houses an ever-increasing volume of
public dissatisfaction, which can be used to anticipate information. The emergence of Internet-based social media,
some of the conditions that may give rise to terrorist in particular, has complicated the use of OSINT. Social media
activity. On the other hand, with nearly a billion web in this article will encompass “all online applications that
pages in existence, social media exacerbates collectors’ spontaneously and interactively connect Internet users,
existing challenge of distinguishing signals from noise as through searchable directories (Facebook, LinkedIn), text- or
they sift through Open Source Intelligence. It can also audio-based blogs (WordPress, BlogTalkRadio), microblogs
provide new avenues for discreet communication between (Twitter, Tumblr), video-sharing (YouTube, DailyMotion),
members of terrorist organizations, and can serve as a collaborative tools (GoogleDocs), and wikis (Twiki,
source of disinformation. Overall, social media is likely to SharePoint).”3
be more helpful than harmful for analysts if our agencies
invest in designing predictive models that filter through BENEFITS OF THE INTERNET
relevant metadata to anticipate attacks before they occur,
and if they invest in designing programs that can frustrate
T
his section entails a very brief discussion of the
terrorist organizations’ effective use of social media benefits of Open Source Intelligence, and particularly
platforms. the Internet, compared to other intelligence-gathering
disciplines. By investing more heavily in OSINT analysis,
INTRODUCTION the Intelligence Community (IC) can more effectively counter
threats to national security. Given the accessibility of
OSINT, more resources can be allocated toward collection,
S
ince the advent of Six Degrees and AOL Instant
Messenger in 1997,1 social media has become linguistic translation,4 and analysis of OSINT Internet data
increasingly important, reforming marketing for effective use in countering threats.
approaches,2 interpersonal anticipating and addressing
terrorism. I argue that some aspects of social media have Quantity of Information
made the potential payoff from using the Internet greater,
while other aspects have made the challenges it presents OSINT provides collectors with much of the information
more problematic. However, I conclude that using the they need.5 In fact, according to Robert David Steele, a
provided policy recommendations can mitigate the former CIA case officer, “80 percent of the mission-critical
challenges, making social media more helpful than harmful information that the intelligence community needs is publicly
to analysts. Specifically, I propose that the analysis of available.”6 With over a billion Internet users since 2008, and
information available via social media deserves more one billion websites in 2014,7 it is no wonder that much of
funding, much of which should be allocated toward the this public information is available through the Internet. It
development of predictive models. can be published online in blogs, media broadcasts, “grey
literature” (information obtained from expert channels like
academia),8 and other forms.
S
ocial media augments the benefits discussed above,
and can be leveraged for counterterrorism objectives. tweets came from iPhones, and little change was noted after
This includes both addressing existing terror threats the decree,17 reinforcing the point that, although ISIS may try
and anticipating conditions that may give rise to terrorist to control its supporters, it is hard to regulate what
activity. supporters and members do online. Analysts can leverage
the small leaks that result from non-compliant members or
Makes Posting Information Easier supporters on the web, with location data being one of the
most useful types of leaks. ISIS members often share
Social media acts as an avenue by which basically anyone mundane information about their daily lives (much like the
can post information online with ease. Social networking majority of social media users), for example, sharing a Tweet
sites are extremely user-friendly and the most popular ones about enjoying a Snickers bar: “I know I should thank Allah
are almost always free. Prior to the explosion of social media, a lot for the various blessings that are here. Never imagined I
particularly blogging and micro-blogging, posting would eat a Snickers here=D.”16
information on a webpage was time-consuming and required
more digital expertise than it does today. In sum, social Analysts can learn about the daily life and attitudes of ISIS
media makes sharing information with the public easier than members (and members of other digitally active terrorist
ever before. organizations) via the information they post frivolously or
casually. From these types of posts, analysts can develop an
Today, social media is the fastest real-time source of understanding of the organization’s operating structure and
information available,9 because of the ease with which of members’ perspectives to counter terrorist organizations’
anyone can post updates. Of course, media broadcasts by activities more effectively.
news agencies occur extremely quickly today, but social
media is distinctive because it allows individuals with The following case study is an example of analysts
unique information to share with the public directly. The successfully leveraging a “leak” by a non-compliant ISIS
use of Twitter during the recent terrorist attacks in Paris member on Twitter, which is an important channel of
demonstrates the speed with which information is shared propaganda dissemination for the organization.14
via social media online, and also demonstrates an example
of individuals (witnesses and hostages, in this case) Recently, an ISIS member posted a selfie to Twitter
sharing with the outside world information to which only bragging about the “command and control capabilities
they were privy. For example, one hostage posted to for Daesh,” serving as an example of information
Facebook, “Please come help us! They are shooting carelessly made public. Air Force General “Hawk”
people one by one! First floor, quick!”10 [Editor’s Note: Carlisle was able to use this information, particularly
the location services associated with the posting, to
From ISIS social media use, analysts can identify specific Social media also allows collectors to monitor relationships
tactics that the group favors, which likely transcend the between individuals via networks like Facebook and Twitter.
virtual world. For example: According to Daniel Byman, a professor at the Georgetown
University School of Foreign Service, and Jeremy Shapiro, a
a. ISIS uses notions of empowerment to attract fellow in the Brookings foreign policy program, a common
vulnerable individuals via social media outlets. problem for analysts is “detecting a terrorist before he acts.”
The story of Alex, a young female convert to They also state that Facebook friends or Twitter followers of
Islam, is a perfect example.16 A lonely young Syrian militants could be potential terrorists21 and, at the
woman who struggles with “lack of maturity and very least, this information can guide analysts in determining
poor judgment” due to fetal alcohol syndrome, whom to monitor online.
Alex is the type of at-risk youth that terrorist
organizations like ISIS target. Members 4. Research Interests
communicate with potential recruits like Alex via
social media platforms such as Facebook and Social media provides a source of information that analysts
promise the reward of having a purpose in life, can exploit with data- crunching tools to predict major
fighting for a just cause, etc.,17 which is often attacks. After the November 13, 2015, attacks in France,
exactly what these disenfranchised individuals analysts at Predata subsequently scraped metadata from
are searching for. many web pages and built a model that successfully warned
of the attacks. The webpages from which data were scraped
b. ISIS brands its organization strategically and include YouTube, a social media site. The model took into
specifically for its various audiences on social account the activity (page views, number of participants,
media. To the West, it aims to appear powerful etc.) on web pages relevant to terrorism and it showed a
and ruthless, while to the residents of Iraq and the spike in activity in these pages that exceeded the threshold
T
his section briefly discusses a few challenges
associated with OSINT, and particularly the Internet,
The following case study on the Arab Spring demonstrates as a source of intelligence.
that posts made on social media platforms reflect public
opinion extensively. This can be helpful to analysts when Distinguishing Signals from Noise
there is evidence of public discontent with the political,
economic, or social system, since these factors may A primary challenge of using OSINT is the immense
contribute to an environment conducive to terrorist activity.3 amount of information available. While this can be a
Knowledge of public opinion gained from social media sites benefit for analysts, it often serves as a challenge as well,
can help analysts develop more informed expectations for since it exacerbates the ever-present issue of filtering the
the future. signals from the noise. OSINT is probably the collection
discipline that faces the greatest dilemma of filtering, and
Starting in 2010, social networking media was used the advent of the Internet has only exacerbated this issue.
to mobilize grassroots protest movements,
beginning in Tunisia, and subsequent waves of
S
ocial media makes the challenges posed by the Internet
as a source of OSINT even more problematic. there is more support for the organization than there
However, these challenges can be mitigated, as truly is, which frustrates their ability to develop
discussed in the conclusion of this article. informed estimates and expectations for the future.
Exacerbates the Problem of Signals to Noise New Avenues for Deception in Communication
With so many social networking sites, and so many Social media makes the mission of intelligence analysts more
individuals on each of these sites, social media certainly difficult by providing new avenues for members of terrorist
adds to the dilemma of sifting through all of the information organizations to communicate with one another without
available. The user counts on Facebook have surpassed one detection by the law enforcement or intelligence
billion,1 and Twitter user counts average 307 million.2 In this communities. For example, ISIS utilizes the secure mobile
way, social media compounds the existing issue of messaging app Telegram, which offers a “secret chat” option
information overload that intelligence agencies face. It is with encrypted messages. The group’s call for an attack on
incredibly time-consuming, and also expensive, to filter Saudi and Emirati forces in Aden appeared on Telegram prior
through the wealth of information available. As Chris Pallaris to the incident on December 6, 2015.1 Additionally, terrorist
states, “the promises made by technology vendors, no organization members can communicate via gaming
matter how sincere, can not replace the enormous analytical platforms like Sony’s PlayStation 4. Members can send
effort that the wealth of OSINT requires from human messages through the PlayStation Network gaming service
beings.”10 or voice chat through these games.2 Members can also form
messages within the games—for example, by spelling out
Source of Disinformation for Intelligence Analysts words and sentences with bullets on a wall—which other
players online can see.3 It is difficult for analysts to monitor
Not only can adversaries choose to go offline and cut off so many systems, and communication modes like the latter
collectors from gathering information online, but they can example of forming messages within games would be nearly
also mislead intelligence agencies by what they put on social impossible to track.
media. “Bots” and apps have been used as part of
propaganda techniques for a long time. Bots are algorithms, CONCLUSION
or automated programs, which act in social media networks.1
They can search for keywords and post replies or comments
O
verall, the use of social media has increased
with the messages they seek to promote, and they look like a tremendously within the last decade among the
real user to outsiders.38 Bots can be used to influence public general public as well as by terrorist organizations.
opinion by spamming the news feed, thus influencing what In the coming years, social media is expected to become
is “trending.” For example, governments used “bots” during increasingly important, as constant connectivity to the