Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

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Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

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Original article

Cost-reliability analysis of hybrid pumped-battery storage for solar and

wind energy integration in an island community
Fausto A. Canales a, *, Jakub K. Jurasz b, c, f, Mohammed Guezgouz d, Alexandre Beluco e, *
a
Department of Civil and Environmental, Universidad de la Costa, Calle 58 #55-66, 080002 Barranquilla, Atlántico, Colombia
b
AGH University, Faculty of Management, Department of Engineering Management, Kraków, Poland
c
MDH University, School of Business Society and Engineering, Västerås, Sweden
d
Department of Electrical Engineering, Mostaganem University, BP188/227, Mostaganem 27000, Algeria
e
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
f
Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This paper presents a mathematical model for estimating the optimal sizing and assessing a standalone hybrid
Hybrid power systems power system’s performance entirely based on variable renewable energy sources and coupled with a hybrid
Multi-objective optimization energy storage system. This study evaluates how different levels of the main components’ capital cost and the
Hybrid energy storage
loss of power supply probability would affect the cost of energy and the power system’s optimal sizing. The case
Reliability
Energy management strategy
study selected for this study was Ometepe Island in Nicaragua, where the crater lake of an extinct volcano was
considered a feasible upper reservoir of a pumped storage hydropower plant, reducing the investments associated
with this component. The mathematical formulation considers energy storage losses and gains, and the Pareto
efficient solutions of the multi-objective optimization model simultaneously increase reliability, reduce the cost
of energy, and minimize curtailment energy. By employing time-series with an hourly resolution, the model
allows assessing the impact of the interannual variability of renewable energy sources on the system’s perfor­
mance. As for the case study, the cost of energy obtained from the model results ranges between €0.047/kWh and
€0.095/kWh, based on international reference values, and these values match the information available in the
literature and other databases.

Introduction achieve the goal of a power system based entirely on renewables [2–8].
It is worth mentioning the paper by Jacobson et al. [9], where these
Non-combustion renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro­ authors assessed the feasibility of serving the all-purpose loads of 139
power, and geothermal) are becoming the pillars of electric power sys­ countries across the world with 100% renewables, and their findings
tems worldwide [1]. Numerous authors have investigated how to suggest that this might be attainable with careful planning of generating

Abbreviations: CAPEX, Capital expenditure; CBT, Installed capacity of the battery bank; COE, Cost of electricity; CP/T, Installed capacity for pumped storage hydro
turbomachinery; CPV, Installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power; CWT, Installed capacity of wind power; Ed, Energy deficit; EMS, Energy management strategy;
Es, Energy surplus; Evap, Sum of actual evapotranspiration and evaporation; g, Gravitational acceleration; G, Solar irradiance; Gref, Solar irradiance at standard
conditions; GV, Volume of water gained from rainfall and the catchment area; h, Available head for hydropower production; Kt, Coefficient of efficiency variation as
a function of the temperature; kW, kilowatt; kWh, kilowatt⋅hour; LFPV, Performance ratio of the PV system; LPSP, Loss of power supply probability; MOGWO, Multi-
objective Grey Wolf Optimizer; MW, Megawatt; MWh, Megawatt⋅hour; Pload, Load demand; Pn, Rated power of the wind turbine; PPV, Power output of the PV system;
PSH, Pumped-storage hydropower; PSHg, PSH production in generating mode; PSHp, PSH charging rate in pumping mode; PV, Photovoltaic; PWT, Power output of the
wind turbine; Q, Flow rate through the pumped storage hydro turbomachinery; SIN, National Interconnected System; SOCb, State of charge of the battery storage;
Tam, Ambient temperature; Tc, Junction cell temperature; Tref, Reference temperature; V, Wind velocity; Va, Cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine; Vd, Cut-in wind
speed of the wind turbine; VD, Volume of water discharged from the upper reservoir; Vp, Volume of water pumped from the lower reservoir; Vr, Rated wind speed of
the wind turbine; VRES, Variable renewable energy sources; WT, Wind turbine; ηch, Charging efficiency of the battery bank; ηdch, Battery storage’s discharge effi­
ciency; ηinv, The efficiency of the inverter; ηPSH, Pumped storage hydropower plant overall efficiency; ρ, Water density; σ, Self-discharge rate of the battery.
* Corresponding authors.
E-mail addresses: fcanales@cuc.edu.co, fausto.canales.v@gmail.com (F.A. Canales), albeluco@iph.ufrgs.br (A. Beluco).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101062
Received 17 December 2019; Received in revised form 4 November 2020; Accepted 1 February 2021
Available online 22 February 2021
2213-1388/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

units and energy storage systems. Similarly, Aghahosseini et al. [10] how wind-PSH hybrid power systems could increase renewables’
evaluated the interconnected energy power system’s feasibility based penetration in the Canary Islands [31]. Caralis and Zervos [32] analyzed
completely on renewables for the Americas for 2030. After assessing the operation of a wind-PSH project applied to Greek islands, and in
several scenarios, their results indicated that existing technologies could their next study [33], they assessed the market potential of wind-PSH for
supply all the electricity demand in the Americas for 2030, with a system autonomous power systems on Islands. Papaefthimiou et al. [34] pre­
dominated by solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbines (WT). sented operating policies for wind-PSH stations for island grids, while
While there is no universal approach for attaining 100% renewable Katsaprakakis et al. [35] proposed a wind-PSH system for an insular
energy systems, several countries and regions across the globe have power system for Karpathos and Kasos’ islands. Kapsali et al. [36] per­
proven that this is an achievable goal in recent times [11,12]. Some formed a sensitivity analysis of wind-PSH from the economic perspec­
examples are the Tokelau islands, administered by New Zealand, which tive, using the Greek islands as a case study. Ma et al. [37] considered
use PV systems with battery backup for meeting the energy demands of adding PV modules to a wind-PSH hybrid power system and analyzed it
the approximately 1500 inhabitants of these three atolls [13]. In Central from a technical perspective for a remote island in Hong Kong.
America, Costa Rica was able to produce its electricity entirely using Papaefthymiou and Papathanassiou [38] presented an optimal sizing
renewables (a combination of hydropower, wind, solar and geothermal) method for wind-PSH stations for insular systems. Ma et al. [39]
for over 300 days in 2018, and this country has set a goal of becoming employed a similar approach to achieve an optimal design of an
carbon–neutral within this century [11,14]. The Danish island of Samso, autonomous solar-wind-PSH station. Barreira et al. [40] considered an
with a negative carbon footprint, uses biomass and wind power to serve off-stream PSH project as an option to increase VRES penetration in
its load, and it has a connection to the mainland for energy export and Santiago island (Galápagos). Tsamaslis et al. [41] showed a concept of
balancing [15]. These are only a few case studies, but the growing hybridizing PVs with PSH to increase VRES penetration and achieve grid
number of communities supplied entirely from renewables proves that benefits for Cyprus. A recent detailed review paper by Javed et al. [42]
such a 100% renewables scenario is possible with adequate planning has summarized major works in this area, highlighting PSH’s technical
and policies aimed at such a target. and economic viability in the off-grid projects.
These examples support the findings of recent studies and reviews Guezgouz et al. [43] proposed an energy management strategy
[11,12,16], stating that a combination of renewable sources, energy (EMS) for off-grid renewable energy systems, aiming to optimize a
storage, and balancing technologies can substitute conventional fossil hybrid storage system consisting of pumped storage hydro and a battery
fuel and nuclear power generation. A more extensive list of examples bank. The main idea is to prioritize PSH over batteries to store extra
can be found in the paper by Brown et al. [17]. In their research, these energy and cover deficit load when it operates in their higher efficiency
authors deconstruct and oppose a common claim that variable renew­ range. Otherwise, the batteries are used as a backup system to avoid the
able energy sources (VRES) are unreliable and intermittent to the degree operation of PSH in a lower efficiency range, preventing the depletion of
that they are unable to contribute significantly to the electric power the upper reservoir. The present study is based on the EMS proposed in
supply or to serve baseload power [18,19]. [43], with improvements in how the components are modeled, such as
Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a mature and efficient form of assessing storage systems’ losses and gains.
bulk energy storage that has drawn significant attention as a viable Ometepe island, in Nicaragua, Central America, was selected as the
option to facilitate the integration of VRES in isolated areas and national case study for this paper because it presents some attractive features for
power grids [20,21]. One of the most substantial costs related to hy­ evaluating the method and assessing the technical feasibility of a 100%
dropower with storage is the one related to building the reservoirs. non-combustion RES system: a) it has a crater lake at the top of an
Specifically, for PSH, the price per kilowatt⋅hour (kWh) for a PSH plant extinct volcano that might serve as the upper reservoir of a PSH plant; b)
that already has the two reservoirs available is around 18% of the cost of it is located in a large tropical freshwater lake that could act as the lower
a PSH plant that requires two new reservoirs, and 40% of a system reservoir of the PSH system; c) solar and wind energy resources are
including one new reservoir [22]. In general, PSH can present various available. The island also has geothermal potential, although this
configurations: both reservoirs are human-made (e.g., Goldisthal Pum­ characteristic was not considered in this work. The paper by Meza et al.
ped Storage Plant, Germany); natural lakes connected by a canal (e.g., [44] also works with the idea of reaching 100% of the energy supply to
Żydowo Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Power Plant, Poland); one of the the island of Ometepe with renewable resources. They present a detailed
reservoirs is a natural water body and the second one is an artificial survey of the wind and solar potentials, and they also consider the
reservoir (e.g., Żarnowiec Pumped Storage Power Station, Poland); the possibility of energy storage in the crater of the Maderas volcano. They
lower reservoir is using saltwater from the ocean (e.g., Okinawa Yan­ acknowledge the island’s geothermal potential, indicating that in­
baru Seawater Pumped Storage Power Station, Japan[23]); PSH using vestments in research and development are still required. These authors
exploited (abandoned) deep mines [24,25]. Despite many possible focus on assessing the available renewable resources, discussing their
configurations of PSH plants, the main factor determining the suitability possible complementarity, and comparing them with the island’s pop­
of a given site for PSH development is a beneficial ratio of vertical (head) ulation’s consumption, suggesting actions to reduce or optimize energy
to the horizontal distance between reservoirs [26]. The paper by consumption.
Ghorbani et al. [27] summarizes the different possible topologies for Within this context, this paper aims to evaluate how the combination
PSH. of different levels of the capital cost of the main components of the
The sustainability of communities living on islands and remote hybrid renewable energy system and the loss of power supply proba­
communities across the world is often directly tied to fuel oil availability bility (LPSP) affect the cost of electricity (COE) and the optimal
and price. This commodity propels ships and trucks that allow trans­ configuration to serve the load of Ometepe Island. Some of the merits of
porting goods into and from the island, fuels the vehicles that would this article related to filling the literature gap are that unlike other
enable tourism and mobilization within these areas, and, perhaps most studies, it uses a hybrid storage system that simultaneously increases
important, has enabled the continuous electricity supply for these reliability and reduces COE and curtailment energy. The model
communities [28]. employed is an adaptation of the work by Guezgouz et al. [43] for a
There is a significant body of literature on hybrid systems based on more accurate simulation of a hybrid PW-WT-PSH-battery system by
VRES coupled with PSH operating on islands. We briefly introduce some considering storage losses and gains. Additionally, this paper discusses
of those works written over the last years. Duić et al. [29] showed how the impact of the interannual variability of solar and wind resources and
PSH could be used to increase VRES penetration in Porto Santo island. investigates the feasibility of producing hydrogen from the dumped
Bueno and Carta [30] presented a techno-economic analysis of wind- energy generated by the hybrid power system based on renewables.
powered PSH for El Hierro island. Their follow-up study investigated

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Method and Data: A hybrid power system in Ometepe. Columbian era.

According to Ranaboldo et al. [47], grid extensions dominated most
This section describes the renewable resources, loads, and compo­ of the past efforts in Nicaragua related to the electrification of areas far
nents considered in this case study and included in the model to evaluate from the main cities. However, for many parts of the country, such so­
an autonomous hybrid power system to serve the electricity demands at lutions are technically and financially unfeasible due to the remote and
Ometepe Island, Nicaragua. By 2017, non-combustion renewables dispersed nature of small communities or geography features that pose a
accounted for ~ 36% of the installed capacity of the National Inter­ major obstacle to the electric grid (mountains, forests, lakes, etc.).
connected System (Sistema Interconectado Nacional – SIN) of this However, it is worth mentioning that Ometepe was connected to the grid
Central American country [45]. in 2017 by a medium voltage circuit that includes a 9 km long sub­
In order to keep the quality of the electricity supply, power systems aquatic cable [48]. Besides this, in 2014, the island had an installed
based on high shares of VRES require backup power to balance the capacity of a 2.3 MW diesel plant and a 0.5 MW run-of-the-river hydro
intermittent and fluctuating behavior of sources like wind and sun ra­ plant [44].
diation. Fuel generators mostly provide this balance to the Nicaraguan The remainder of this section describes the model proposed for
power sector. However, this paper considers using PSH instead of fuel to solving the optimization problem and data employed for evaluating this
serve the load in a 100% renewable system, even in high demand case study.
periods.
Model description
Case study: ometepe island
In this work, a renewable energy system composed of PV panels, WT,
To reduce infrastructure investment, PSH frequently uses exhausted and hybrid storage, i.e., PSH and battery bank, is used to fulfill Ometepe
mines or natural water reservoirs. For this case study, both the crater Island’s electrical demand. Fig. 2 summarizes the conceptual layout of
lake at the top of Maderas volcano and Lake Cocibolca (a large tropical the proposed hybrid system.
freshwater lake) are used as the upper and lower reservoirs of a PSH The modeling of system components, the EMS, and the optimization
system. Ometepe’s island is configured by two volcanoes (Concepción method are based on the procedure by Guezgouz et al. [50]. Moreover,
–1634 m above sea level (m.a.s.l), and Maderas – 1394 m.a.s.l.) and is this paper considers additional improvements, such as battery self-
located in Lake Cocibolca, in the southwestern part of Nicaragua, as discharge rate and evaporation from the upper reservoir. Fig. 3(a) pre­
shown in Fig. 1. The area of Ometepe is 276 km2, about 31 km long by 5 sents the main flowchart of the EMS for the hybrid system. The dispatch
km to 10 km wide, housing approximately 44,000 inhabitants [46]. The policy follows two possible cases:
largest concentration of the population that occupies the island lives in
Concepcion’s surroundings, and the economy of the island revolves • When there is surplus energy: Fig. 3(b) describes the operation of
around tourism, taking advantage of some archeological sites of the pre- PSH and battery for storing the extra energy produced from VRES.

Fig. 1. Satellite image showing the Ometepe island region in Nicaragua. Adapted from [49].

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Fig. 2. The conceptual layout of the proposed off-grid renewable energy system for the Island of Ometepe.

• When VRES production is insufficient to serve the load: Fig. 3(c) [51–53]. As a result, a set of characteristic equations is proposed to
shows this operating mode, where PSH and battery are used to cover predict the WT’s output power as a function of different wind speeds
the deficit energy. ranging from start to cut-off speed. In this context, the performance of
the Enercon E-33/300 [54] wind turbine is simulated using the
The following section describes the EMS’s main algorithm and the following equation:
proposed changes in the components’ modeling regarding this work. ⎧
⎨ 0 V < Vd ; V > Va
PWT = (powercurve) Vd < V < Vr (3)
Solar power output ⎩
Pn Vr < V < Va
The mathematical modeling of PV generators allows the assessment
of their nonlinear behavior, which strongly depends on the variation of where PWT is the power output of the WT, Pn is the rated power of the
solar irradiance and temperature of the selected site. In this sense, the wind turbine, V represents the wind speed. Vd, Va, Vr correspondingly
power output of the PV system (PPV) as a function of temperature and denote the cut-in, cut-out, and rated WT’s wind speed. The Enercon E-33
solar radiation is given by Eq. (1): wind turbine has been successfully employed in small island grids
[ ( )] worldwide [55], and its power curve is shown in Fig. 4.
PPV = CPV × LFPV × (G/Gref ) 1 + Kt Tc − Tref (1)

where CPV denotes the installed capacity of the PV system, LFpv refers to Pumped storage hydro model
the performance ratio of the PV system, G is the solar irradiance, and Gref In standalone hybrid renewable energy systems, rechargeable bat­
represents the solar irradiance at standard conditions (1000 W/m2), Kt is teries are usually used to overcome the imbalance between generation
the coefficient of efficiency variation as a function of the temperature, its and load demand. Due to their fast response time, low cost, high effi­
value usually equal to − 3.7e− 3 (1/◦ C) for silicon-based PV panels. Tref is ciency, the short period required for building storage banks, and their
the reference temperature (25 ◦ C), and Tc is the junction cell tempera­ flexible installation, batteries have been widely used as the primary
ture, which is calculated as follow: option for studies about autonomous hybrid systems. On the other hand,
hybrid systems connected to a pumped storage hydropower plants have
Tc = Tam + (NOCT − 20/800) × G (2) increased their popularity due to their low maintenance cost, long life­
Tam represents the ambient temperature; NOCT is the normal time, and high energy density.
operating cell temperature given by the manufacturer. Pump-turbines are reversible electrical machines that can change
their operation from pump mode to turbine mode by reversing their
Wind turbine and output rotation direction. In the case of excess energy during the low con­
The wind turbine’s output power is heavily dependent on the wind sumption or high generation hours, the pump mode elevates water from
speed; therefore, each WT has a particular performance curve. The latter the lower reservoir to the upper one, which means a conversion of
facilitates the estimation of the power generated by a WT without electrical energy into potential hydraulic energy. Similarly, when elec­
dealing with the complete technical details of the generator. Many re­ tricity demand is high and the generation from renewables is insuffi­
searchers have developed various models based on the above concept in cient, the turbine mode converts the stored energy back into electricity.
which the power curve of the wind turbine exhibits a typical shape The power generated by the pump-turbine mainly depends on the head h

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F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

Fig. 3. Flow chart of the energy management strategy.

(difference in levels between the reservoirs) and the flow rate Q and can overproduction (Es) is determined using the following equation:
be expressed by the following equation [56]:
PSHp (t) = min[ρ∙g∙ηPSH ∙Q∙h; Es] (5)
EPSH = ρQghηPSH (4)
In order to ensure the production/consumption balance, the water
EPSH represents the amount of energy produced by the PSH, ρ is the pumped to the upper reservoir is converted to electrical energy via the
water density [1000 kg/m3], Q is the flow rate [m3/s], g is the gravi­ turbine during the hours of underproduction (Ed) from renewable en­
tational acceleration [9.81 m/s2], h is the height difference between the ergy sources. The power generated from the water turbine is calculated
lower reservoir and the upper one [m], and ηPSH is the overall efficiency using the following equation.
of the PSH.
PSHg (t) = min[ρ∙g∙ηPSH ∙Q∙h; Ed] (6)
The energy pumped to the upper reservoir during the hours of

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Solar resource
For the period between 2007 and 2019 evaluated in the model
described in this paper, the solar resource information for Ometepe
comes from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service [58]. The
monthly average ambient temperature and irradiation at Ometepe Is­
land, the two main parameters employed by the model to estimate the
PV output, are displayed in Figs. 5 and 6. The proposed model applies
the Liu and Jordan isotropic transposition model to convert the available
irradiation on the horizontal plane to the inclined plane [59].

Wind turbine and wind speed data

The wind resource for Ometepe was obtained from the Modern-Era
Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2
(MERRA-2), which is a reanalysis dataset produced by Global Modeling
and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA [60]. As previously stated, the
time-series employed in this paper covers the years between 2007 and
Fig. 4. Power curve of Enercon E-33/300 kW wind turbine. 2019, and the monthly average windspeed adjusted to the hub height for
this period is shown in Fig. 7.
Moreover, the volume of water in the upper reservoir is determined
each time step using the equation: Representing pumped storage hydropower in Ometepe
Crater lakes situated in dormant or extinct volcanos usually have
V(t) = V(t− 1) + Gv(t− 1) + Vp − VD − evap(t− 1) (7) fresh water. For this model, the existing crater lake at Maderas volcano
(11◦ 26′ 44′′ N, 85◦ 30′ 54′′ W) serves as the upper reservoir of the PSH
Vp and VD are the volumes of water pumped from the lower reservoir
plant. This volcano is a small, asymmetrical stratovolcano that, along
and discharged from the upper one, and GV is the volume of water
with the Concepción volcano and connected by the Istián isthmus, forms
gained from direct rainfall over the crater lake and contributions from
the dumbbell-shaped Ometepe island located in Lake Cocibolca,
the catchment area, and evap accounts for the total sum of actual
evapotranspiration and evaporation in the watershed. Nicaragua. According to studies and evidence, the Maderas volcano has
been inactive for tens of thousands of years, and future volcanic erup­
Battery storage system tions are not considered a threat [46]. Lake Cocibolca, with an elevation
around 32 m.a.s.l. and an average depth of 13 m, will serve as the lower
The storage energy system is an essential part of most off-grid
renewable energy systems. Batteries are usually employed to store the reservoir.
Maderas’ crater lake volume is approximately 240,000 m3, with the
surplus power produced from VRES, allowing them to serve the load
demand while balancing the hybrid system’s fluctuations. The model water surface ranging within 1203 and 1214 m above sea level [61].
Based on the information described, the authors assumed a fixed value of
used in this paper estimates the state of charge of the battery storage
(SOCb) following the methods by Guezgouz et al. [43]. The battery bank h = 1170 m for the available head, both for pumps as for turbines. This
feature is technically feasible, as some PSH plants with a head above
is in charging operation if there is a surplus from the VRES generation,
the upper reservoir of the PSH is full or is enabled to operate. The 1000 m exist in Austria, France, Italy, Romania, and Spain [62]. This
paper’s authors considered the active value as 80% of the crater lake’s
amount of energy charged to the battery bank at time t is calculated
using the equation: total volume for the upper reservoir.
[ Even if there is no need to build a dam in the Maderas’ volcanic cone,
SOCb (t) = SOCb (t − 1)(1 − σ ) + (PPV (t) + PWT (t) ) − PSHp and with the forest covering the majority of its area, it is worth
]
− Pload (t)/ηinv × ηch (8) mentioning that there are some geological hazards on this volcano, like
earthquakes and lahars [46]. These risks indicate that sound geological
where σ is the battery’s self-discharge rate, adopted as 0.0125%/hour, studies and design of the water intake and the reinforcement of some
based on [57]. Pload is the hourly load demand; PSHp represents the
amount of energy pumped to the upper reservoir; ηinv and ηch denote the
efficiency of the inverter and the charge efficiency of the battery bank,
correspondingly.
Batteries are in discharging operation when the VRES and PSH are
not able to cover the load demand. As long as the SOCb is greater than
the allowed minimum depth of discharge, batteries can supply the en­
ergy deficit, and the following equation determines its SOCb after
discharging:
[ ]
SOCb (t) = SOCb (t − 1)(1 − σ) − Pload (t)/ηinv − PSHg − (PPV (t) + Pw (t))
× ηdch
(9)
With PSHg representing the quantity of energy supplied by the PSH,
and ηdch is the battery storage’s discharge efficiency.

Data

The primary data regarding the renewables sources and load for
setting the hybrid power system model for this case study are presented Fig. 5. Monthly average ambient temperature at Ometepe during the
and discussed over the next subsections. period 2007–2019.

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energy consumption per person in Nicaragua is approximately 58 kWh/

y [68]. Based on the corresponding monthly and hourly scaled load
profiles, a synthetic data series was created for its use in the model,
scaled for the island’s 44,000 inhabitants [46]. Fig. 8 shows the hourly
demand along the day and monthly demands throughout the year.
Based on the information found at the electricity map site [69], and
using data from May 3, 2020, to May 5, 2020, as a sample, the average
CO2 emissions of the SIN was around 250 gCO2/kWh. The average cost
of energy for this period was approximately €0.072/kWh.
According to Fig. 2 and the information presented in this section, the
hybrid system considers the possible installation of PV modules, Enercon
E-33 type WT, a battery bank, and a PSH plant to meet an average total
demand of 70 MWh per day, with a maximum demand value of 4 MW.

Simulation results and discussion

Solving the optimal size problem for a renewable energy system

compromising multiple subsystems is of great importance in terms of
Fig. 6. Monthly average irradiance at Ometepe during the period 2007–2019. economic and technical aspects. Therefore, this study considers three
different capital costs of system components (min, average, and max
expected) to find an optimized cost of electricity (COE) for the proposed
off-grid renewable energy system. From a technical perspective, the
system’s power supply reliability is calculated based on the LPSP. Be­
sides, simulation allows verifying the system operation and optimization
results. This section also evaluates the energy curtailment and its po­
tential for producing hydrogen based on efficiency and cost-benefit
viewpoints.

Size optimization

Over the last decade, wind and solar technologies’ development

allowed a massive decrease in their capital cost, with the price of PV
modules falling by more than 50% and WT by 30% to 40% [11].
However, it is often difficult to determine an accurate capital cost for
these components. The Energy Technology Reference Indicator (ETRI)
report [22] provides a range of different renewable energy systems’
capital costs. This work considers three values of Capital Expenditure
(CAPEX) provided by ETRI to estimate the COE for the proposed off-grid
Fig. 7. Monthly average windspeed at Ometepe during the period 2007–2019. renewable energy system. Table 1 presents the CAPEX of each major
component of the system. The CAPEX presented in the report mentioned
above includes building a new penstock and the PSH’s turbomachinery
mountainside areas’ stability could be required to implement the tech­
cost. The head-to-penstock ratio is estimated at around 1:4, within the
nical solution proposed in this study.
range of values for most PSH [21].
The natural water balance assessment in the crater lake watershed
The optimal installed capacity of the proposed off-grid renewable
employed information from MERRA-2 [60]. The crater lake basin covers
energy system can be found by optimizing the COE while maintaining a
around 340,000 m2, with the water body extending over 12% of this
high level of power supply reliability. These two conflicting objectives
area [61]. Reanalysis products usually overestimate actual rainfall [63],
(COE, LPSP) are formalized as the objective function of the multicriteria
and for this case study, the annual average rainfall from MERRA-2
problem as follows:
corresponds to 1609 mm/year, with a standard deviation equal to
( )
433 mm/year. With the same MERRA-2 dataset for the years Objective CPV , CWT , CP/T , CBT = Minimize [COE, LPSP] (10)
2007–2019, the outputs related to the actual evapotranspiration (ETP)
were estimated using the Turc equation described by Gudulas et al. [64]. The optimization process employs the Multi-objective Grey Wolf
Similarly, four equations (Penman, Jensen–Haise, Makkink, and Optimizer (MOGWO), as described by Guezgouz et al. [70] based on the
Hamon) described by Ghumman et al. [65] were used to estimate the algorithm presented by Mirjalili et al. [71]. CPV, CWT, CP/T, and CBT are
lake’s evaporation. Even if the results significantly varied for the the decision variables, and they represent the installed capacity for PV,
different methods (evaporation ranged between 1033 and 2250, and WT, pump/turbine, and battery storage, respectively. Table 2 summa­
ETP around 1207 mm/year), our findings indicate that the water bal­ rizes each component’s technical and economic specifications used in
ances are mostly positive on average. Therefore, the crater lake’s the simulation and calculation of COE. The upper reservoir size is not
permanence is justified, and the results suggest a wide variability in the subject to optimization, as its value is a parameter defined based on the
infiltration rates for the different methods under analysis. lake volume of the volcano crater. As previously stated in the data sec­
tion, a constraint was applied to the operation of PSH in order to use less
Load than 80% of the total volume of the upper reservoir, to avoid the com­
This case study’s AC load profile is based on load curves of years plete depletion of the crater lake.
2014 and 2015, related to hourly demand along the day [66] and Fig. 9 presents part of the results obtained from 500 iterations of the
monthly load along the year [67] in Nicaragua. The annual average MOGWO optimization algorithm. Since this project aims at increasing
renewable energy penetration, only solutions that achieved at least a

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F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

Fig. 8. Scaled load profiles for the case study.

Table 1
CAPEX of each components [22].
Components Min [€/kW] Mean [€/kW] Max [€/kW]

PV 650 800 900

WT 1100 1350 2000
PSH 400 600 800

Table 2
Technical and economic specification of hybrid system elements.
Parameters Values Unit Reference

Photovoltaic
Lifetime 25 years [22]
O&M 1.7 % of CAPEX [43]
3
Temperature coefficient − 3.7x 10− 1/◦ C [43]
Performance ratio (LFpv) 90 % [72]

Wind turbine – ENERCON E33/300

Fig. 9. Pareto front of optimal system sizing for different component costs.
Lifetime 25 years [22]
O&M 2.4 % of CAPEX [22]
Rated power 300 kW [54] of a Pareto front. Fig. 9 depicts these solutions for the three considered
Cut-in speed 2.5 m/s [54] scenarios of component CAPEX. It is clear that lower component cost
Cut-out speed 12 m/s [54]
leads to a cheaper COE, and the model results provide the decision-
Hub height 47 m [54]
makers with general economic viewpoints in terms of expected COE
Pumped storage hydro
and reliability of the system.
Lifetime 60 years [22]
Upper reservoir volume 240 000 m3 [61]
The optimal configurations of the hybrid system for the three-
Active volume 192 000 m3 selected levels of power supply reliability (97.5%, 99%, and 100%)
Catchment area 320 000 m2 [61] are shown in Table 3, as well as for the different CAPEX levels of the
Head 1170 m [61] system’s major components as listed in Table 1. The hybrid energy
O&M 1.5 % of CAPEX [22]
storage formed by the PSH and the battery bank allows the system to
Round trip efficiency 85 % [22]
operate with enough spare capacity to serve sudden increases in the
Battery load. The importance of energy storage is supported by the fact that
Lifetime 10 Years [22]
CAPEX 250 €/kWh [43]
accurately forecasting renewables is difficult. For example, even though
O&M 2.6 €/MWh [22] it is possible to forecast wind power output a day in advance, forecast
Variable O&M 1.4 % of CAPEX [22] errors of 20%− 50% are not uncommon [18].
Replacement cost 205 €/kWh [43] From the results, the total electricity demand of Ometepe island can
Self-discharge rate 0.0125 %/hour [57]
be covered at COE = 0.095 €/kWh for maximum CAPEX. On the other
Depth of discharge 80 % [22]
Round trip efficiency 85 % [22] hand, for minimum CAPEX, a 100% level of power supply reliability was
achieved at COE = 0.067 €/kWh, while the average CAPEX leads to a
Inverter
Life time 15 Years [43]
COE = 0.081 €/kWh. This range of values aligns with the observed
CAPEX 300 €/kW [43] behavior for COE in Nicaragua in 2020 [69]. The VRES plants are
Replacement cost 250 €/kW [43] dominated by the PV systems, representing more than 70% of the PV +
Economical indices
WT total for all cases.
Project lifetime 25 Years [22,73] By August 2020, solar power accounted for around 1% of the SIN’s
Discount rate 8 % [43] total installed capacity [74]. Even with great potential for solar energy
production, PV arrays in Nicaragua are mostly limited for self-
generation in households and small industries. In recent years, the
95% level of power supply reliability are adopted. In this regard, the
most important solar project in Nicaragua is the Polaris Solar Park,
model applies a penalty factor to low-reliability solutions. The optimi­
completed in November 2017 with installed capacity equal to 12 MW
zation procedure provides a set of non-dominated solutions in the form
[75]. According to the information available at Ong et al. [76], the land

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F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

Table 3
Results of optimal sizing for different levels of power supply reliability.
LPSP CAPEX PV [MW] WT [MW] PSH [MW] Battery [MW] COE [€/kWh] Curtailment [%]

2.5 Max 7.62 3.01 2.43 1.50 0.072 12.36

Avg 7.44 3.06 2.34 1.94 0.058 13.55
Min 7.46 3.06 2.73 1.09 0.047 13.78
1 Max 9.48 2.57 2.92 2.20 0.078 16.21
Avg 8.85 2.96 2.73 2.51 0.065 15.90
Min 8.82 2.96 2.92 2.64 0.053 15.69
0 Max 11.48 2.65 3.31 6.56 0.095 21.01
Avg 11.63 2.76 3.41 6.44 0.081 16.61
Min 11.33 2.52 3.80 7.18 0.067 16.37

requirements for a PV solar park could range between 0.89 and 4.90 ha/
MW, with a capacity-weighted average of 2.80 m2/MW. Ometepe total
area is 276 km2 (27,600 ha) [46], meaning that in the worst-case sce­
nario from the results, the land use requirements would be around 60 ha
(less than 0.25% of the island area).
Ometepe is one of the regions with significant wind power potential
in Nicaragua [77]. However, the country’s only relevant wind parks are
in the municipality of Rivas, a few kilometers (~30 km) from the island.
The Amayo wind farm, which started operating Phase I in 2009, and
Phase II in 2010, has an installed capacity equal to 63 MW, corre­
sponding to 30 SUZLON S88 wind turbines of 2.1 MW. For this work, an
initial assessment of the wind regime indicated that the Enercon E-33/
300 wind turbine previously mentioned in the model’s description is a
good fit for this case study. The turbine could be placed offshore the
island, in the shallow waters of Lake Cocibolca.

System simulation

This section uses the results of a simulation for assessing the system’s
proper operation and the validation of sizing results. For this matter, the Fig. 11. The variation of battery state of charge during one year (2019)
of simulation.
hybrid system configuration that achieved a 100% level of power supply
reliability (presented in Table 3) was used to simulate the system per­
formances and analyze its operation.
Fig. 10 depicts the state of charge (SOC) of UR for the year 2019. The
results indicate that the system operates correctly and follows the
constraint of using less than 80% of the maximum water volume avail­
able in the lake. This graph evidences that the PSH is extensively used to
cover the electricity demand during May and October, where the upper
reservoir reaches its minimum allowable level. Similarly, the SOC of
battery storage is given in Fig. 11. As for the battery bank, this frequently
regulates the lower demand that PSH cannot serve. The production from
wind power and PV solar power for 2019 is shown in Figs. 12 and 13,
correspondingly. These data maps indicate a low electrical production
for both energy sources between April and June, a behavior that

Fig. 12. Annual electricity production from wind power.

validates the previously described performance of the upper reservoir

and the battery bank.

Renewable potential and reliability analysis

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of VRES, it is necessary to

investigate the system’s resilience under different weather conditions
used in the optimization process. In this sense, this study evaluates the
system performance by simulating 13 years of data (from 2007 to 2019),
using the optimal sizing configuration that achieved 99% reliability.
Fig. 10. State of charge of the upper reservoir. Fig. 14 depicts the power supply reliability of the proposed hybrid

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F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

Fig. 13. Annual electricity production from the PV system.

Fig. 14. Potential of renewable energy sources over 2007–2009 and its effect on the hybrid system’s power supply reliability.

system and the potential of VRES each year, which were normalized curves of the excess energy during the year of simulation, also called the
based on the potential observed in 2019 (year considered in the opti­ residual curve.
mization). This figure shows that 2019 exhibits the highest VRES po­ These results indicate that although the energy surpluses (dumped/
tential of the period. Additionally, the solar potential seems to be curtailed RES generation) are significant, they present very high values,
steadier than wind potential. Therefore, it is clear that the off-grid sys­ and in general, they occur less than 30% of the year. The efficient uti­
tem’s power supply reliability is highly affected by wind resources. lization of this energy is a challenging task. One possible solution would
Nevertheless, the year 2010 presented the lowest VRES potential, but be to use them in hydrogen production through various processes that
the system’s power supply reliability decreased only by 1.60% from the require electricity (like electrolysis) [79]. However, if the process energy
reference level (99%), and this suggests that the system is resilient to the supply would rely entirely on the VRES generation surpluses, the
variability of the two renewables under consideration. equipment’s overall utilization would remain relatively low. Fig. 16
shows a 5 MW hydrogen-producing device’s theoretical operational
range, whose nominal hydrogen flow usually ranges around 1000 Nm3/
Dumped energy analysis h [80]. The figure shows that this system would operate with its nominal
capacity for less than 1000 h per year. Such low utilization would in­
Table 3 indicates that the proposed off-grid renewable energy sys­ crease the hydrogen cost since the investment cost in electrolyzers [81]
tem, coupled with a hybrid storage system formed by PSH and batteries, constitutes a significant fraction of the hydrogen production cost. For
might considerably reduce the curtailment. Therefore, this subsection comparison, Fig. 16 presents the capacity factors at various electrolyzer
aims to explore the system’s dumped energy and the feasibility of using sizes. For example, the device with a 500 kW capacity would operate for
it for producing hydrogen (H2), a possibility for Nicaragua, especially for roughly 22.5% of the year. Therefore, the viability of hydrogen
decarbonizing its transport sector [78]. Fig. 15 presents the duration

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F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

correspond to a predefined logic which doesn’t always match the long-

term optimal, thus leading to an increased curtailment.

Conclusions

This paper presented the optimization results for a hybrid power

system entirely based on VRES, consisting of PV modules, wind turbines,
and a hybrid energy storage system formed by batteries and PSH, a
feature aimed at increasing the system’s reliability. The mathematical
model is an improved version of the model presented by Guezgouz et al.
[43] by considering energy storage losses and gains. This work’s
objective was to evaluate how different levels of the CAPEX of the sys­
tem’s main components and LPSP would affect the COE and the optimal
sizing of the arrangement required to serve the electricity demands of a
standalone power system. The case study selected for this study was
Ometepe Island in Nicaragua, where the crater lake of an extinct volcano
was considered a feasible upper reservoir, as it would reduce the cost
associated with the PSH plant’s construction.
Based on the sizing optimization results for 2019, the system’s long-
term performance was evaluated through an hourly time-step simula­
tion over 13 consecutive years (2007–2019). Despite the significant
Fig. 15. The annual dumped energy for different levels of reliability.
variability in the VRES availability, especially in the wind speed regime,
the system’s reliability was not drastically compromised. For the study’s
considered parameters, the optimal sizing of the PV and WT prioritized
production would depend on the market situation, the availability of
the former for all cases, with solar power representing more than 70% of
alternative fuels, and the willingness to pay for emission-free fuel.
the required installed capacity. The hourly time-step also allowed
On the curtailment subject, it is worth mentioning at this point, the
assessing the impact of the interannual variability of solar and wind
paper by Salomon et al. [82], which explores the curtailment–stor­
resources on the system’s performance. The sensitivity analysis con­
age–penetration nexus in the energy transition. These authors employ
ducted for different combinations of CAPEX and LPSP estimated that the
the LUT model for assessing the impact of climate change on Israel’s
COE ranges between €0.047/kWh and €0.095/kWh, based on interna­
power system, achieving curtailment levels below 5% for most cases
tional reference CAPEX values. These results match the information
under study. However, for the present paper, the PSH has a limited
available in the literature and real-time monitoring sites [69]. The
upper reservoir capacity that does not play a seasonal role (around 144 h
different hybrid system configuration results demonstrated that
of average demand and battery storage system is only 1.5 h), but rather
renewable energy generation’s technical and economic aspects
serves as weekly storage so large supply/demand imbalances are harder
(different CAPEX combinations) are at least as important as the avail­
to compensate. There is also a lack of spatiotemporal smoothing of
ability of VRES.
VRES, as solar and wind resources exhibit a correlated behavior during
Additionally, this paper investigates the feasibility of producing
the year; thus, the system requires larger energy storage. Finally, the
hydrogen from the dumped energy generated by the hybrid power sys­
optimization for the model described in this paper is based on the EMS;
tem based on VRES; however, the resulting low capacity factor expected
therefore, the resources management and storage utilization decisions
from a 5 MW electrolyzer might difficult its implementation but justifies

Fig. 16. Electrolyzer capacity factor for different total capacities.

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F.A. Canales et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101062

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