Pakistan Power Generation

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
NEPRA Tower, Attaturk Avenue (East), G-511, Isiamabad

Ph: +92-51-9206500, Fax: +92.51-2600026
Registrar Web: www.nepra.org.pk, E-mail: registrar@nepra.org.pk
No. NEPRAIDG(Lic)/LAT-01/77 September 24, 2021
Managing Director,
National Transmission & Despatch Co. Ltd. (NTDC)
414 WAPDA House
Shaharah-e-Qauid-e-Azam
Lahore
Tele: 042 - 99202229
Subject: Submission of Revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan

(IGCEP) 2021-30
This is in continuation to NTDC's Letter No. MD/NTDC/2377-84 dated September 08,

2021, the Determination of the Authorithy in the subject matter (11 Pages) along with Additional
Note of Mr. Tauseef H. Farooqi, Chairman NEPRA (02 Pages) & Dissent Note of Mr. Rafique
Ahmad Shaikh, Vice ChairmanlMember NEPRA (01 Page) and a copy of the approved IGCEP-
202 1-30 (130 Pages) are forwarded for your reference and Record. The said documents are also
available at NEPRA website (www.nepra.org.pk).
End: As above
(Syed Safeer Hussain)
Registrar
CC:
Secretary Secretary
Cabinet Division Ministry of Energy (Power Division)
Government of Pakistan 'A' Block, Pak Secretariat,
Cabinet Secretariat Islamabad
Constitution Avenue, Islamabad
Secretary Secretary
Economic Affairs Division Ministry of Planning & Development
'C' Block, Pak Secretariat, Islamabad 'P' Block, Pak Secretariat, Islamabad
Secretary Secretary
Ministry of Privatization Water & Power
Privatization Commission Government of Gilgit Baltistan
Government of Pakistan Near Kara Kuram International University,
4th Floor, Kohsar Block, Gilgit
New Secretariat, Islarnabad Tele: 05811 —920306
Tele: 051 —9207197
Page 1 of3
Secretary, Secretary
Energy Department. Energy Department
Government of the Punjab. Government of Sindh
8th Floor, EFU House, Main Gulberg, 3' Floor, State Life Building No. 3,
Jail Road, Lahore Opposite CM House,
Dr. Zai-ud-din Ahmad Road,
Karachi
Secretary Secretary
Energy and Power Department Energy Department
Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Government of Balochistan
First Floor, A-Block, Civil Secretariat, Zarghoon Road,
Abdul Wali Khan Multiplex, Quetta
Civil Secretariat, Peshawar
Chief Executive Officer Chairman,
Central Power Purchasing Agency Guarantee Water & Power Development Authority
Limited (CPPA-G) (WAPDA)
Shaheen Plaza, 73-West, Fazl-e-Haq Road, WAPDA House, Shahra-e-Quaid-e-Azam,
Islamabad Lahore
Managing Director Chief Executive Officer

Private Power and Infrastmcture Board Alternative Energy Development Board
(PPIB) (AEDB)
Plot No. 10, 2 Floor, OPF Building,
2 Floor, Emigration Tower, Sector G-5/2,
Mauve Area, Sector G-8/1, Islamabad Shahrah-e-Jamhuriat,
Islamabad
Member (Power), Managing Director,
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Punjab Power Development Board
P.O. Box No. 1114, (PPDB)
Islamabad Old Anarkali, lS Floor,
Irrigation Secretariat,
Lahore
Tele: 042 - 9921 3878
Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer

Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development K-Electric Limited (KEL)
Organization (PEDO) KE House, Punjab Chowrangi,
Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39 — B, Sunset Boulevard, Phase-I!
221 -PEDO House, Plot # 38, Sector B12, Defence Housing Authority, Karachi.
Phase-V, Hayatabad, Peshawar
Ph: 091-9217446
Chief Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer,
Faisalabad Electric Supply Company Lahore Electric Supply Company Ltd.
Abdullahpur, Canal Bank Road 22-A, Queens Road,
Faisalabad Lahore
Page I 2 of3
Chief Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer
Gujranwala Electric Power Company Ltd. Multan Electric Power Co. Ltd.
565/A, Model Town, G.T. Road, MEPCO Headquarter, Khanewal Road,
Gujranwala Multan
Chief Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer,
Hyderabad Electric Supply Co. Ltd. Peshawar Electric Supply Company
WAPDA Offices Complex, WAPDA House, Shami Road,
Hussainabad, Hyderabad Sakhi Chashma,
Peshawar
Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer
Islamabad Electric Supply Co. Ltd. Quetta Electric Supply Company
Street # 40, Sector G-7/4, Zarghoon Road,
Islamabad. Quetta
Chief Executive Officer, Chief Executive Officer
Sukkur Electric Power Company Ltd. Tribal Areas Electricity Supply Company
Administration Block, Limited (TESCO)
Thermal Power Station, Room No. 213, lS Floor, WAPDA House,
Old Sukkur. Shami Road, Sakhi Chashma, Peshawar
Page I 3 of 3
National Electric Power Requlatory Authority
(NEPRA)
Determination of the Authority

in the Matter of Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan
of National Transmission and Despatch Company Limited
September 24. 2021

Case No. LAT-Ol
(A). Backqround
(I). The Authority granted a Transmission Licence-TL

No.TL/01/2002, dated December 31, 2002 (as amended from time to time to
National Transmission and Despatch Company Limited (NTDC) as National Grid
Company (NGC). According to the said licence, NTDC was required to have in
place a Grid Code to perform its various function under the above Transmission
Licence.
(ii). In consideration of the above, NTDC prepared a Grid Code and

the Authority approved the same on June 09, 2005. According to the Planning
Code (PC4) of the Grid Code, NTDC is required to prepare and submit a Ten
(10) Year Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), covering 0-
10 years' time frame, identifying the new capacity requirement. According to the
above approved Grid Code, NTDC was to bring the very first ten (10) Years
based IGCEP to NEPRA for approval in the Year 2006. However, NTDC
submitted first such IGCEP on April 20, 2020.
(iii). The Authority after internal review conducted a Public Hearing on

IGCEP-2020 on July 15, 2020 and returned the same with serious reservations
especially in light of objections from provinces and other key stakeholders. The
Authority directed NTDC to submit the revised IGCEP after addressing all the
reservations as communicated vide letter dated August 20, 2020.
Page lof 11
(B). Submission & Processinq of IGCEP
(i). Instead of revising the IGCEP-2020 in light of the observations of

the Authority, NTDC prepared and submitted IGCEP for the period 2021-30
herein called IGCEP-2021-30 vide its letter No. GMT/NTDCiT-48/568-73, dated
May 31, 2021 for the consideration and approval of the Authority.
(ii). The Authority considered the matter in its Regulatory Meeting

held on June 02, 2021 and decided to seek comments of the general public,
affected, interested parties and other stakeholders. Further, the Authority also
decided to hold a Public Hearing in the matter. In consideration of the said, a
public notice in the matter was published in the press on June 03, 2021 informing
about submission of the IGCEP and for submitting comments in the matter
before or during the Public Hearing.
(iii). In light of the above, the Authority received comments of around

twenty (20) stakeholders including various developers, representative
organizations, Govt. Ministries and attached departments. The stakeholders
included Saifco Hydropower Limited, Renewable & Alternative Energy
Association of Pakistan, Pakistan Renewable Energy Coalition, Sani Power
(Private) Limited, Alternative Law Collective, Uzghor Hydro Power Company
(Private) Limited, Alternative Energy Development Board, Azad Jammu &
Kashmir Power Development Organization, LUMS Energy Institute,
Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization, K Electric Limited, Korea
South-East Power Company, Sindh Solar Energy Project Energy Department
Government of Sindh, Oracle Power PLC, Engro Energy Limited, Ministry of
Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives Energy Wing Government of
Pakistan, UGH Power (Private) Limited and UGH-Il Power (Private) Limited Etc.
(iv). The above stakeholders inter alia raised various observations on

the set of assumptions approved by Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCoE) for
preparation of the IG - _ .ecially; (a). the criteria for selection of projects as
Page 2 of 11
committed ones; (b). submission of IGCEP without Transmission System
Expansion Project-TSEP; (c). demand projections; (d). concentration of hydro
projects (large hydro and associated issues specially); (e). contradictions with
Alternative Renewable Energy-ARE Policy regarding its targets; (f). drastic
reduction in utilization of newly commissioned efficient plants; (g). some projects
fulfilling the prescribed criteria are missing from the list of the committed projects;
(h). huge local projects and environmental concerns; and (i). lack of consultation
with relevant stakeholders etc.
(v). The Public Hearing in the matter was held on June 15, 2021
wherein in addition to the sponsors of the above organizations and companies,
representatives of NTDC, Central Power Purchasing Agency (Guarantee)
Limited and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission participated and expressed
their views highlighting the observations in this regard as explained above. The
Authority considered the matter and observed that Council of Common Interest
(CCI) in its meeting held on June 21, 2021 inter a/ia had decided that it will be
approving the assumptions of the IGCEP. In view of the said, the Authority
decided to return the submitted IGCEP to NTDC directing it resubmit the same
in light of the above decision of the CCI duly considering the projects (a). having
achieved Financial Close or secured financing arrangements; (b). already under
construction; (c). having PC-I approved at relevant forum of the Federal and
Provincial levels; (d). having generation licence and tariff approved by the
Authority; and (e). strategic projects under G2G initiatives.
(C). Submission of Revised IGCEP
(i). In consideration of the above, Ministry of Energy Power Division

(M0EPD) decided to initiate consultative sessions with provincial Governments
of the federating units as well as Govt. of Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu and
Kashmir. Further to the said, M0EPD submitted a summary for the consideration
of the CCoE for the approval of the assumptions of the revised IGCEP.
Page 3 of 11
Accordingly, CCoE considered the matter in its meeting held on August 26, 2021
and approved the assumption for the preparation of revised IGGEP.
(ii). After the approval of the assumptions of the IGCEP by CCoE, the
MoEPD moved a summary to the CCI for the ratification/approval of the
assumptions for the IGCEP. CCI considered the matter and approved the same
inter a/ia consisting of (a). the provincial public sector projects with approved
PC-I(s) with secured financing (as of March 2021) shall be included in
"committed projects"; (b). hydel projects shall be included in the definition of
Renewable Energy (RE) and the ARE Policy may suitably be amended; (c).
historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index-CPl is
obtained from Economic Survey of Pakistan, published by Ministry of Finance,
Government of Pakistan; (d). the long-term GOP projections are developed in
the light of data provided by Finance Division; (e) sale and prices of electricity
are to obtained from Power Distribution Book, June 2020, the annual publication
of PEPCO; (f). Planning horizon of the study will be 2021-30 (10 Years) with
annual updating; (g). Reserve and Reliability requirements (LOLP = 1%) will be
considered as per Grid Code; (h). retirement of existing thermal power plants
including GENCOs will be considered as per expiry of contractual term of
corresponding PPA(s) and relevant decisions of the CCoE; (i). till the expiry of
contractual term of corresponding PPA and GSA, existing RLNG and imported
coal based projects will be given a minimum dispatch as per contractual
obligations; (j). a project will be input as 'committed' and its capital cost or
CAPEX will be not entered in the model, provided the project fulfils at least one
of the pre-requisites (i). has obtained LOS as of December 2020 for private
sector projects; (ii). for Federal and Provincial public sector projects, the PC-I
has been approved and funding secured (as of March 2021). However,
Jamshoro Unit-2 and Chashma-5 Nuclear Plants shall be modeled as candidate
projects to be evaluated under Least Cost Principle"; (iii). 020 project; Power
Generation projects which are listed under Federal Government's international
(bilateral or multilateral) commitments, if project/financing agreements signed;
Page 4 of 11
(iv). where timelines of completion of a project under G2G are not firmed up yet,
the software shall determine the timeline by which such a project must come
online based on its tariff optimization with respect to other available options; (v).
RE plants (Wind, Solar, Bagasse) enlisted in Category I & II of decision of the
CCoE decision dated April 04, 2019; (vi). the on-grid power projects for RE will
be according to the ARE Policy 2019 i.e., 20 % by year 2025 and 30% by year
2030 (including net-metering). Further, candidate block will be considered on
respective wind/solar/hybrid technologies from the year 2023-24 onwards on
least cost principle. The iteration of the revised IGCEP for RE projects will be
done under existing targets as per ARE Policy 2019, subject to least cost
principle, and including hydro projects in the definition of RE (for the purpose of
meeting such targets) to be ratified through an amendment to the ARE Policy
2019 by CCI in due course.
(vi). In consideration of the above, NTDC through its letter

No.MD/NTDC/2377-84, dated September 8, 2021 submitted the revised IGCEP
in terms of the relevant provisions of the Grid Code for the consideration and
approval of the Authority.
(D). Observations/Find incis of the Authority
(i). The Authority considered the revised IGCEP and has observed
that according to the revised IGCEP, the GDP of Pakistan is expected to grow
at a rate of 5.134% annually over the period 2021-30. Due to the said, the peak
demand in the year 2030 will be 37,129 MW against 23,792 MW in 2021.
Further, the total energy consumption in 2030 is expected to reach 207,418
GWh, against 130,652 GWh in 2021. The current installed capacity of the
system is 34,776 MW which will become 61,112 MW in the year 2030. This will
include the existing capacity of the system (34,776 MW), addition of the already
committed projects of 22,415 MW and candidate projects of 10,062 MW. Further
to the said, existing projects of 6,447 MW will be retired on completion of the
term of their agreements during the period of the revised IGCEP.
Page 5 of 11
(ii). The Authority has observed that the revised IGCEP has
considered a total of seventy-three (73) committed projects of various
technologies including Hydel, Local Coal, Imported Coal, Nuclear and ARE
including Wind, Solar, and Bagasse. Further, to the said, the committed projects
also include a 1000 MW Cross Border import (CASA Project). The Authority has
reviewed the list of the committed projects and has observed that the same
includes projects in the Private Sector having LOS, the projects in Public Sector
have their PC-I approved and the financing secured which is in compliance with
the provisions of the decision of the CCI.
(iii). Further to the above, the Authority has observed that the revised
IGCEP has considered a total of 148 projects of various technologies along with
different blocks of wind and solar for the optimization of the candidate projects
during the period 2024-2030. In this regard, the revised IGCEP has optimized a
total of 10,062 MW of Solar and Wind Projects as candidate projects on the
criteria of least cost option. In this regard, the Authority feels extremely satisfied
that in future over 60% of the installed capacity of Pakistan will be consisting of
ARE technologies of Hydel, Wind, Solar and Bagasse. Further, there is
emphasis to develop and utilize local coal which will result in increasing its
contribution to around 6% by 2030. The dependence on imported coal is likely
to reduce from current 11% to around 8% in the year 2030. Similarly, the use of
plants running on Furnace Oil/RFO will decrease from the current usage of 19%
to only 2% in the year 2030. In view of the said, it is clear that the revised IGCEP
is not only based on environment friendly ARE technologies but has also
envisaged to utilize other locally available resources, resulting in energy security
of Pakistan.
(iv). In consideration of the above, the Authority has observed that

existing power plants with expensive or imported fuel will have lower despatch
especially with the induction of low cost wind and solar projects during the period
2024-30. The Authority has also observed that some of the existing power plants
Page 6 of 11
using indigenous low BTU gas, will have relatively low despatch due to the
induction of the low cost wind and solar power plants. In this regard, OGDCL
which is operator of the UCH gas field located in the district of Dera Murad Jamali
in the province of Balochistan, has highlighted that this reduction in the plant
factor will not be suitable as the aquifer there may overtake the available gas. In
this regard, the Authority considers that the indigenous low BTU gas should be
utilized in an optimum manner for which necessary coordination between
different agencies should be ensured to capitalize on this cheaper natural
resource of national importance which has the best utilization in producing
cheaper electricity.
(v). Further to the above, the Authority has observed that there is
drastic reduction in the plant factor of the newly set up RLNG power plants which
are one of the most efficient in their technology and have also been earmarked
for privatization. The despatch of these power plants needs to be reviewed so
that our highest efficiency plants are utilized to capitalize on fuel savings for
reducing the cost of electricity. Same arguments may be considered for the
newly commissioned 747 MW Block of TPS Guddu and 525 MW of Nandipur
which are also being considered for privatization.
(vi). The Authority has observed that it had granted generation licence
and determined tariff for fourteen (14) different projects of Hydro, Wind and Solar
to the tune of 820.40 MW which have not been considered in the current iteration
of the revised IGCEP. These include five (05) projects of wind with cumulative
capacity of 274.40 MW, seven (07) Projects of Solar with installed capacity of
341.70 MW and two (02) Projects of Hydro with installed capacity of 204.30 MW.
In this regard, the Authority considers that it had determined the tariff for wind
projects, proposed to be located in the province of Sindh , in the range of U.S.
3.12 — 3.58/kWh, which is the lowest tariff in the history of Pakistan. The solar
projects to be set up in the province of KPK had a tariff of the tune of U.S. 3.95
U.S. cents/kWh which is also very competitive considering the fact that the
province of KPK is lower in radiation due to its location as compared to the rest
RE,
Page 7 of 11
of the country. Further to the said, one (01) project for solar technology to be
located in the province of Punjab has a tariff of U.S. 3.6414/kWh which is highly
competitive.
(vii). Regarding, the two (02) hydro projects (i.e. 102.00 MWShigo Kas
and 102.30 MW Arkari Gol) for which the Authority had determined the tariff,
Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization carried out an International
Competitive Bidding in which a number of leading companies of the world
participated and the award was made to the lowest bidder. However, their tariff
was not notified by MoEPD and resultantly the projects could not move ahead
despite having a reasonable tariff in terms of their technology. Further to the
above, the Authority determined tariff for three (03) projects based on solar
technology. Out of the said projects, two projects with a tariff of U.S. 3.82/kWh
are proposed to be located in the vicinity of the proposed Special Economic Zone
of Bostan, Balochistan whereas the other one (01) project with tariff of U.S.
3.7/kWh, is planned to be set up near the port city of Gwadar, Balochistan which
is actually the center stage of the whole CPEC initiative.
(viii). The Authority considers that all the above projects should be
considered as committed projects as already directed, failing which it will send
a very negative message to the market that the cheapest and the greenest
projects of Pakistan couldn't see the day light. This will also be extremely
detrimental in the context of the proposed Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract
Market (CTBCM) targeted to be operational by next year.
(ix). The Authority has a special consideration for the province of

Balochistan which currently has the lowest density of electricity, is the least
developed in terms of industrialization and has a zero footprint of RE. In view of
the said, the Authority is of the considered opinion that two (02) solar projects to
be located near the Special Economic Zone of Bostan and one (01) project of
Gwadar should be implemented on top priority. The projects located near
Special Economic Zone of Bostan, shall not only act as a catalyst for the
Page 8 of 11
industrialization of the province but will also result in attracting more direct
investment. The above two (02) solar projects will have a very positive impact
on the quality and stability of supply for the Special Economic Zone of Bostan.
This is particularly important considering the fact that system of the relevant
utility i.e. QESCO is very weak, and system stability and reliability is a grave
concern which can only be addressed with the setting up of power plants in the
nearby location of the load center of QESCO and the nearby proposed Special
Economic Zone. The setting up of these plants will also have a very positive
impact on the voltage profile of the area which is particularly critical to run the
industrial units proposed to be set up in the Special Economic Zone. Regarding,
the project of Gwadar, the Authority considers it extremely critical considering
the fact that area of Makran is currently not connected to the National Grid and
the only source of supply is from Iran, the quantum of which has drastically
reduced due to a number of reasons including the increase of use within Iran.
The said situation is causing severe load shedding thus giving rise to serious
law and order situation in the area due to shortage in supply of electricity as well
as water. In this regard, the Authority has observed that the solar project at
Gwadar only requires half a kilometer of transmission line to get it connected to
the main transmission line which will also make it the least cost option. It is
pertinent to mention that the proposed project is not only in very close proximity
to the Gwadar Industrial Grid but can come online in a very short span of 5-6
months and thus can be a source of great help in the stability of the said grid.
Further to the said, it is worth stating that the supply from Iran is being purchased
at U.S. 0 7.5/kWh which is very expensive as compared to the levelized cost of
U.S. 0 3.7/kWh of the Gwadar project thereby replacing the costly electricity from
Iran. In view of the above, the Authority is of the considered opinion that the
construction of the above mentioned projects in the province of Balochistan is
extremely critical and of paramount importance as it will not only result in stable
supply to area(s) but will also result in appearance of the province on the map
of RE and therefore must be considered for implementation on top priority basis
and must be included in the list of committed projects.
Page 9 of 11
(x). The Authority has received comments from the Govt. of Sindh
wherein it has been emphasized that various projects of the province (including
wind, solar and coal) be considered as committed for this revised IGCEP
iteration. In light of the explanation given in the preceding paragraph, the
Authority is of the considered opinion that projects for which the tariff had been
determined should be considered for implementation on priority. Regarding the
observations of the Govt. of Sindh for inclusion of 400 MW solar project at
Manjhan, the Authority has considered the provisions of PC-I and other related
documentation and has observed that the initial pilot project of 50 MW was
considered for implementation in the public sector and the same has already
been included in the list of committed in this revised IGCEP. Regarding the
observation of the Govt. of Sindh to include the coal project of the Oracle UK,
the Authority has considered the relevant documents and has observed that the
same is included in the list of priority projects of CPEC. Reportedly, the progress
achieved so far is not very encouraging and that caused the removal of this from
the list of committed projects. However, the Authority is of the considered opinion
that the project can be considered for next iteration of the IGCEP to be carried
out in due course of time.
(xi). Further to the above, the Authority has also considered the
observations of the Govt. of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa wherein it has been stated
that the provincial Govt. had entered into an MoU with the Govt. of South Korea
for the development of about 500 MW Lower Spatgah project on PPP mode.
The Govt. of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has already issued the Letter of Intent for the
development of the project and the Korean sponsors have already started work
on the same to complete the feasibility study of the project. The Authority has
considered the above submissions and is of the view that such projects must be
given due consideration on merit in the next iteration of the IGCEP as candidate
projects.
Page 10 of 11
(xii). In light of the above, the Authority is pleased to approve
Pakistan's first ever IGCEP (i.e. IOCEP 2021-30) in line with the relevant
provisions of the applicable Grid Code and based on above observations.
Authorit
Engr. Maqsood Anwar Khan
(Member)
Engr. Rehmatullah Baloch

(Member)
Engr. Rafique Ahmed Shaikh

(MemberNice Chairman)
Engr. Tauseef H. Farooqi

(Chairman)
/
Page 11 of 11
Additional note of
Enqr. Tauseef H. Farooqi Chairman NEPRA in the matter
of approval of IGCEP 2021-30
The Authority in its meeting held on September 21, 2021 considered the
matter for the approval of IGCEP 2021-30 submitted by NTDC, the basic assumptions
of which had already been approved by the CCI in its 48th Meeting held on September
06, 2021.
(2). In this regard, myself being the Chairman, Member (KPK) and Member
(Balochistan) are of the view that in order to add future power capacity in Pakistan on a
scientifically projected demand and supply basis, approval of IGCEP is imperative.
However, Mr. Rafique Ahmed Shaikh, Member representing the province of Sindh made
certain observations, which I respect, yet I feel these need to be responded for
clarification.
(3). In this regard, I would like to highlight that committed projects given in the
IGCEP are those projects which are at an advance stage of implementation having
approval of the PC-I by their competent forum, issuance of LOS, having firm
commitments of funds that has either been arranged through local funding or through
multilateral financing institutions like World Bank, Asian Development Bank, OPIC,
CPEC and most of them have already gone ahead with the construction. It is due to this
very reason that NTDC while preparing the IGCEP did not even consider their CAPEX
as an input to the modeling and optimization software called PLEXOS.
(4). In the view of the above, the contention of Member (Sindh) that an upfront
financial analysis should have been carried out to determine the deviation of these
projects from the least cost principle is not pragmatic. It is worth mentioning that out of
the list of 73 committed projects, more than 95% are those for which NEPRA Authority
had already granted Generation Licence and issued Tariff Determination after going
through a rigorous consultative process. Therefore, re-opening of these cases for the
sake of financial viability does not make much sense given that the committed projects
have already gone ahead in the implementation phase.
Page 1 o12
(5). It is worth mentioning that some of the projects which may not be on the least
cost but have vital national importance for the overall development of the country. These
include multi-purpose dams which wilt not only provide tow cost environment friendly
energy/electricity but will help in providing water to the tune of 7.00 MAE which is
absolutely essential for the food security of Pakistan. This aspect is particularly
important considering the fact that the current storage at Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma
has decreased significantly to the tune of 30-40% and we have to make up on urgent
basis for this lost capacity which all the federating units will be benefitting from.
(6). I have observed that Member (Sindh) made the observation that necessary
public consultation has not been done in the case of IGCEP. In this regard, I would like
to highlight that the revised IGCEP which the Authority has now approved, is in fact a
continuation of previous version for which Authority not only invited public consultation
at a large scale but conducted a full day Public Hearing. Myself and other Members of
the Authority except Member (Sindh) are of the considered opinion that objections of
the provinces have already been addressed in NEPRA consultative sessions as well as
in the meetings at the highest and the most honorable forum of the CCI. Therefore,
conducting a fresh Public Hearing will not add any value but seriously undermine the
entire approval process of the said august forum.
(7). I wish to also highlight that provinces and other relevant stakeholders have
already been consulted at the level of Ministry of Energy (Power Division) and CCoE,
therefore, there is absolutely no need to repeat this exercise. It is true that Government
of Sindh has written a letter to the Authority wherein it has raised certain observations
on the submitted IGCEP which the Authority has already addressed it in its
Determination of the IGCEP.
(8). Therefore, I am of the considered opinion that observations made by worthy

Member (Sindh) are not tenable and that is why the Authority has approved the IGCEP-
2021-30 with majority as stipulated in the NEPRA Act.
(Engr. Tauseef H. F
(Chairman)
NEPR
Page 2 of 2
Power sector of Pakistan is under burden of heavy circular debt which has already reached to more than
Rs. 2.3 trillion till to date. Over the last few years, the power purchaser and other stakeholders are of the
view that Pakistan is in a "capacity trap" and for this reason, the tariffs of several renewable projects,
which were determined by the Authority on least cost basis, were not notified.
To combat with the situation of increasing circular debt and coming out of the
menace of capacity trap.
the regulator is striving to explore the options of cleaner and "inexpensive energy' while focusing their
efforts on developingmarket oriented power sector by pursing a shift of regime from take or pay' to
"take and pay" while balancing demand and supply, powered by Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion
Plan (IGCEP}.
In view of the importance of IGCEP for financially viable power sector, it is fundamental that IGCEP should
be developed with the accurate data and after detailed financial analysis so that any possible financial
burden on power sector could be avoided. The importance of first IGCEP in the power market to be
operational in April, 2022 becomes more important, therefore, processing and approval of the IGCEP
requires detail due diligence as well as consultation from all stakeholders. The financial burden of leaving
the least cost generation capacity should not only be calculated but their reason should also be recorded
while developing the IGCEP so that informed decision could be made. NTDC has submitted the IGCEP
earlier twice. In processing of the submitted IGCEP, NEPRA consulted with all stakeholders through public
hearing and as result of consultation, NEPRA reached an informed decision and the submitted IGCEP was
returned un-approved by the NEPRA twice mainly for the reasons that proposed generation capacity
addition was not optimized commercially based on "least-cost principles".
It is relevant to mention that NEPRA Rules, Regulations, Code etc. emphasize on induction of the
generation capacity on least cost; though, there may be an exception for the strategic projects. The
importance of least cost generation induction has also been acknowledged in the National Electricity Policy
2021 (the Policy), approved by Council of Common Interests, which state that in case of strategic projects,
the relevant sponsoring Government shall provide the funding to bridge the incremental cost (beyond
least cost) of any such project.
The minutes of the CCI meeting were issued on September 13, 2021. In the meantime, on September 06,
- .2021, Ministry of Energy (Power Division) directed NTDCL to prepare the IGCEP on assumptions approved
by CCI for its submission to NEPRA. The NTDCL submitted the revised IGCEP before Regulator vide letter
dated September 08, 2021.
NEPRA received a letter dated September 12, 2021 from Minister of Energy, Government of Sindh
whereby the concerns were raised that the revised IGCEP has not been developed on least cost basis as
several costlier projects have been taken into committed list. The Energy Minister, Sindh also stated the
potential financial implications for those committed projects, in the said letter minister also urged and
requested the Authority for public consultation and informed decision making.
Later, on September 17, 2021, Chief Secretary, Government of Sindh conveyed the dissent of Chief
Minister of Sindh stating that the committed projects in the IGCEP do not fulfill the criteria of least cost
principle. It was stated in the letter that the CCI decision was taken by majority and not by unanimity. In
conclusion of the letter, it is mentioned that being aggrieved with the referred decision, which will have
far reaching implications for the entire nation, the Government of Sindh will be presenting this matter
before the joint sitting of the Parliament under Article 154(7) of the Constitution and until the decision is
taken by the Parliament, it is requested that the said Policy is not brought into force.
Furthermore, some of the stakeholders also approached NEPRA and other entities, highlighting that the
IGCEP is supporting expensive electricity which will cost huge loss to national exchequer in coming years.
The approval of the CCI to the assumptions of the revised IGCEP does not stop the Authority from carrying
out the due diligence in the matter rather the already approved Policy adds emphasis for the due diligence
ER R of the IGCEP. Therefore, I am of the considered opinion that "the revised IGCEP cannot be approved"
without having the financial analysis and the prudent practice of consulting the stakeholders. Further, it
so considers appropriate that such financial analysis should also have been presented before the CCI for
ormed decision making.
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Acknowledgements
Commissioning of a study and preparation of a country wide power generation plan, such as
the IGCEP, rely extensively on the input data provided by a wide range of stakeholders. In
case of IGCEP 2021-30, these stakeholders include Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
(PAEC), Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), National Electric Power Regulatory
Authority (NEPRA), Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPlB), Pakhtunkhwa Energy
Development Organization (PEDO), Punjab Power Development Board (PPDB), Sindh
Energy Board, Sindh Transmission & Dispatch Company (STDC), Azad Jammu & Kashmir
Private Power Cell (AJKPPC), Azad Jammu & Kashmir Power Development Organization
(AJKPDO), Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee (CPPA-G) and Water and Power
Development Authority (WAPDA); this output could have not been materialized without the
contribution by these stakeholders.
The IGCEP has also been benefited from advice, suggestions, and value addition from various
entities including Ministry of Energy (Power Division), CPPA-G and various power sector
professionals.
The LF&GP-PSP Team is, therefore, highly grateful to all those who have contributed for the
preparation, revision and finalization of the IGCEP 2021-30.
Acknowledgements I i
I Disclaimer
This Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30 is prepared by NTDC
under the obligations set in the chapter Planning Code of the Grid Code, major regulatory
instrument for NTDC. The plan, as mentioned in its name, is indicative in nature, to be
reviewed and approved by NEPRA — the electricity regulator, and is to be updated every year.
The IGCEP 2021-30 is developed to thereafter enable project executing entities for
procurement of power from generation facilities from both public and private sectors subject
to the fulfillment of other pre-requisites; NTDC to formulate its Transmission System
Expansion Plan and Transmission Investment Plan; and assist policy makers for aligning the
prevailing policies with the ongoing challenges and/or technological advancements.
The information contained herein exclusively does not make the power sector stakeholders
including NTDC and CPPA-G liable to inter-alia procure power, allow commissioning of future
power plants, regulate electricity tariff, perform economic dispatch of electric power and
determine targets of any sort for the power sector of Pakistan. Confirmation of any new
generation project(s) other than the committed ones for future implementation and
procurement would only be made subject to its evacuation scheme included in the upcoming
NTDC's Transmission System Expansion Plan based on the !GCEP 2021-30 and applicable
policies, rules, regulations and SOPs. It is further highlighted that not all candidate projects
may possibly be evacuated owing to technical and/or economic viabilites and/or higher cost
which may not leave it as part of the least cost scheme; activities subsequent to IGCEP may
therefore lead to certain changes for the candidate projects optimized by the generation
planning tool, PLEXOS.
The IGCEP 2021-30 has been prepared based on the proprietary input data provided by
various entities, reference data/practices of international entities, tariff determinations by
NEPRA, etc. NTDC, is in no way responsible for the integrity of any such data considered for
the IGCEP 2021-30.
Any other party using this plan for any purpose, or relying on this plan in any way, does so at
its own risk. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to the
accuracy or completeness of the information presented herein or its suitability for any
particular purpose.
Copyrights© NTDC 2021. All rights reserved.
iiIndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

List of Contents
Acknowledgements
Disclaimer ii
List of Contents iii
List of Figures vii
List of Charts Viii
List of Tables ix
List of Acronyms x
Stakeholder Entities xiv
Foreword XV
Executive Summary xvii
1. Setting the Perspective I
1.1. Generation Planning — A Subset of Power System Planning 1
1.2. Preamble 2
1.3. Introduction 2
1.4. Objectives of the IGCEP 3
1.5. Scope and Planning Horizon 3
1.6. NatureofthelGCEP 4
1.7. Rationale for Preparation of the IGCEP 4
2. Power System of Pakistan 9
2.1. Economics of Pakistan Power Sector 9
2.2. Power Generation 9
2.3. Power Distribution 11
3. The IGCEP Methodolgy 17
3.1. Regulatory Compliance 17

3.2. Data Collection Process 17
3.3. The IGCEP Data Sources and Associated Data Types 17
3.4. Financial Parameters 19

3.5. The IGCEP Preparation Process Map 19
3.6. Criteria and Other Important Considerations for the IGCEP 19
g List of Contents liii

3.6.1. Planning Timeframe 19
3.6.2. Economic Parameters 19
3.6.3. Generation System Reliability 20
3.6.4. Hydrological Risk 20
3.6.5. Renewable Energy (RE) Generation 20

3.6.6. System Reserve Requirement 20
3.6.6.1. Contingency Reserve 20
3.6.6.2. Secondary Reserve 21
3.6.7. Scheduled Maintenance of the Generation Projects 21
3.6.8. System Load Characteristics 21
3.6.9. Fuel Prices Indexation 21
3.6.10. CAPEX of Renewable Energy Technology 22
4. Long Term Energy and Demand Forecast 27
4.1. Energy and Power Demand Forecast 27
4.2. Long-Term Demand Forecasting Methodology 27
4.3 Data Sources 28
4.4 Key Considerations 28
4.4.1 Demand Side Management 28
4.4.2. Power Export to K Electric 29
4.4.3. Load Management 29
4.5. Preparation of Demand Forecast 29
4.6. Demand Forecast Numbers 31
4.7. Hourly Demand Forecast 32
5. Inside the lOCEP 35
5.1. Introduction 35
5.2. Assumption Set approved by CCI 35
5.3. Adherence to Contractual Obligations 37
5.4. Approach and Methodology 37
5.5. Planning Basis 38
5.6. Existing Power Generation of Pakistan 38
5.7. Retirement of Existing Power Plants 39
5.8. Committed Generating Units 40
5.8.1 Committed Projects 41
ivllndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

5.9. New Generation Options 45
5.10. Hydro Projects and Screening 46
5.11. Performance Characteristics of Generic Thermal Candidates 46
5.12. Economic Parameters of the Candidate REs 48
6. The IGCEP Study Output 51
6.1. Introduction 51
6.2. Future Demand and Capacity Additions 51
6.3. Annual Capacity Factors 63
6.4. Year-wise Discounted and Un-Discounted Cost 69
6.5. Indigenization of Energy Mix 70
6.6. Clean and Green Power for Pakistan 71
6.7. Salient Features of the IGCEP 72
6.8. Strategy for Feedback 79
7. The Way Forward 83
7.1 Must Do Actions for the Future Generation Plans 83
7.2 Making Way for the High Share of Renewables in the Grid 83
7.2.1 Hybridization of Variable Renewable Energy Projects 83
7.2.2 Upcoming Wind Power Projects 84
7.3 Future is Here - Time to Understand, Accept and Adopt the New Norms 84
7.4 Focusing on Indigenization through Harnessing the Potential of Local Coal 86
7.5 Thinking, Synergizing and Enhancing the Vision Beyond the Borders 86
7.6 Preparation and Submission of TSEP alongwith IGCEP 87
Annexure A. Load Forecast Data 97
A-i. Projected GDP Growth by Sector 97
A-2. Historical GDP at Factor Cost Constant 2005-06, Consumer Price Index 97
A-3. Category-Wise Nominal Tariff 100
A-4. Category wise Real Tariff 101
A-5. Electricity Consumption by Category (Excluding K Electric) 102
A-6. Category Wise Number of Consumers (Exclduing K Electric) 104
Annexure B. Generation Planning Data 106

B-i. Existing Installed Capacity (As of September 2021) 106
B-2. Cost Data of Existing, Committed and Candidate Thermal Plants 110
B-3. Indexed Capital Cost Calculations of Candidate Hydro Power Plants 114
List of Contents I v
B-4. Screening Curve for Candidate Thermal Plants 122
B-5. Annualized Cost of Candidate Hydro Power Plants 123
vii Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Planning Cycle Leading to Procurement 1
Figure 1-2: The IGCEP Objectives 3
Figure 3-1: The IGCEP Preparation Process 19
Figure 4-1: Process Flow of Methodology of Long-Term Demand Forecast 28
Figure 5-1: The IGCEP Data Modelling Approach 37
Figure 5-2: Committed Projects Criteria 40
Figure 6-1: IGCEP 2021-30: Generation Sequence (2021-30) 55
List of Contents vii

List of Charts
Chart 2-1: GDP (million PKR) vs Sale of Electricity (GWh) 9
Chart 2-2: Installed Capacity (MW) as of September 2021 10
Chart 2-3: Annual Energy Generation (GWh) as of 2020-21 10
Chart 2-4: Historical Annual Energy Generation (GWh) from 2013-14 to 2020-21 11
Chart 2-5: Historical Peak Electricity Demand (MW) from 2013-14 to 2020-21 11
Chart 2-6: Percentage Mix of Number of Electricity Consumers 12
Chart 2-7: Percentage Mix of Category-wise Sale (GWh) of Electricity 12
Chart 4-1 Peak Demand (MW) Forecast 2021-2030 32
Chart 4-2: Load Duration Curve (2025 & 2030) 32
Chart 5-1: Fuel-wise Generation Mix (MW) as of September 2021 38
Chart 6-1: Installed Capacity vs Peak Demand (MW) 2021 -30 51
Chart 6-2: Annual Energy Generation vs Annual Energy Demand (GWh) 2021-30 52
Chart 6-3: % wise Share of Total Installed capacity (MW) - 2030 53
Chart 6-4: IGCEP 2021-30 Indigenization Ratio of Primary Energy 71
Chart 6-5: !GCEP 202 1-30 Annual CO2 Emission and Emission per Unit of Generation 72
Chart 6-6: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2021 (MW) 74
Chart 6-9: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2021 (GWh) 75
Chart 6-10: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2025 (GWh) 76
Chart 6-1 1: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2030 (GWh) 76
Chart 6-12 The IGCEP Monthly Generation Mix 2021-25 (GWh) 77
Chart 6-13: The IGCEP Monthly Generation Mix 2026-30 (GWh) 78
-
viii Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30
List of Tables
Table El: Summary of Load Forecast (2021-30) xvii
Table E2: Summary of Installed Capacity (MW) by 2030 xix
Table E3: Summary of Energy Generation (GWh) by 2030 xix
Table 3-1: Fuel Price Indexation Factors 21
Table 3-2: CAPEX Indexation of Solar and Wind Based Technologies 22
Table 4-1: NEECA Energy Efficiency Targets 29
Table 4-2: Description of Dependent and Independent Variables 30
Table 4-3: Annual Long-Term Energy and Power Demand Forecast 31
Table 5-1: Generation Planning Criteria 38
Table 5-2: Retirement Schedule of Existing Power System 39
Table 5-3: List of Committed Projects 41
Table 5-4: Performance Characteristics of Generic Thermal Power Plants 46
Table 5-5: Economic Parameters of Generic Power Plants 47
Table 5-6: Economic Parameters of Candidate Wind and Solar Blocks 48
Table 6-1: Candidate Generation Capacity Additions (2021-30) 54
Table-6-2: Break-up of Blocks for Hydro, Solar, Wind and Bagasse Power Plants 56
Table 6-3: PLEXOS Annual Addition of Power Plants 2021-30 58
Table 6-4: Annual Capacity Factors (%age) 63
Table 6-5: Year wise Discounted Cost 69
Table 6-6: Year wise Un-Discounted Cost 69
Table 6-7: Year wise Installed Capacity Addition (MW) 73
List of Tables lix

List of Acronyms
Acronym Description
$IGJ US Dollar per Giga joule
$/kW US Dollar per kilowatt
$JMWh US Dollar per Mega Watt hour
ACGR Annual Compound Growth Rate
ADB Asian Development Bank
AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board
AGL Attock Generation Limited
Agr Agriculture
AJKPDO Azad Jammu & Kashmir Power Development Organization
AJKPPC Azad Jammu and Kashmir Private Power Cell
ARE Alternative and Renewable Energy
AT&C Aggregate Techical & Commercial
BCF Billion Cubic Feet
BESS Battery Energy Storage System
c/Gcal Cents per Giga calorie
c/kWh Cents per Kilowatt hour
ckm Circuit Kilo Metre
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
CASA Central Asia South Asia
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CCI Council of Common Interests
CCoE Cabinet Committee on Energy
CFPP Coal Fired Power Project
COD Commercial Operation Date
Corn Commercial
CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor
CPI Consumer Price Index
CPPA-G Central Power Purchasing Agency — Guarantee
Cumm. Cumulative
Cus. Customer
DISCO Distribution Company
0GM Domestic
DSM Demand Side Management
EIA US Energy Information Agency
EOI Expression of Interest
EPA Energy Purchase Agreement
EV Electric Vehicle
FC Financial Closure
FCC Fixed Cost Component
FESCO Faisalabad Electric Supply Company
FKPCL Fauji Kabirwala Power Company Limited
FS Feasibility Studies
xllndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Acronym Description
G.R. Growth Rate
Gis Grid Station
G2G Government to Government
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GENCOs Generation Companies
GEPCO Gujranwala Electric Power Company
GoP Government of Pakistan
GaS Government of Sindh
GT Gas Turbine
GTPS Gas Thermal Power Station
GWh Gigawatt-hour
HCPC Habibullah Coastal Power Company
HESCO Hyderabad Electric Supply Company
HFO Heavy Furnace Oil
HPP Hydro Power Projects
HR&A Human Resource and Administration
HSD High Speed Diesel
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IDC Interest During Construction
EP Integrated Energy Plan
IESCO Islamabad Electric Supply Company
IGCEP Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan
IIEP International Institute of Electric Power Ltd.
IMF International Monetary Fund
Imp Imported
md Industry
'Pp Independent Power Producer
J I CA Japan International Corporation Agency
K2 Karachi Coastal Nuclear Unit 2
KAPCO Kot Addu Power Company
kcal/kWh kilo calorie per Kilowatt hour
KE K-Electric
KKI KANUPP Karachi Interconnection
KPI Key Performance Indicator
KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhawa
kV kilo volts
LCP Least Cost Plan
LED Light Emitting Diode
LESCO Lahore Electric Supply Company
LF&GP-PSF Load Forecast and Generation Planning of Power System Planning,
Team NTDC
LNG Liquified Natural Gas
LOI Letter of Intent
LOLE Loss of Load Expectation
LOLP Loss of Load Probability
List of Acronyms I xi
Acronym Description
LOS Letter of Support
LT Long-term
MIs Messers
MEPCO Multan Electric Power Company
MEPS Minimum Energy Performance Standards
MoPD & R Ministry of Planning Development & Reforms
MT Medium Term
MVA Mega volt ampere
MW Megawatt
NEECA National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority
NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
NPCC National Power Control Center
NPHS Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme
NPP National Power Plan
NPSEP National Power System Expansion Plan
NTDC National Transmission and Despatch Company
O&M Operation and Maintenance
OECD Organization for Economic Coorporation and Development
OLS Ordinary Least Squares
PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
PASA Projected Assessment System Adequacy
PC Planning Code
REDO Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization
PEPCO Pakistan Electric Power Company
PESCO Peshawar Electric Supply Company
P ITO Power Information Technology Company
PKR Pakistan Rupee
PP Project Planning
PPA Power Purchase Agreement
PPDB Punjab Power Development Board
PPIB Private Power Infrastructure Board
PSP Power System Planning, NTDC
QESCO Quetta Electric Supply Company
RE Renewable Energy
RFO Residual Furnace Oil
RLNG Re-gasified Liquid Natural Gas
ROR Run of the river
RP Resource Planning
Rs./kWh Rupees per Kilowatt hour
RTPSS Real Time Power System Simulator
SCADA Supervisory Control & Data Acquisition
SEP00 Sukkur Electric Power Company
SS System Studies
SSRL Sino Sindh Resources Limited
STs Steam Turbines
xiii Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Acronym Description
T&D Transmission and Distribution
TEL Thar Energy Limited
TESCO Tribal Electric Supply Company
TRP Transmission Planning
TSEP Transmission System Expansion Plan
TWh Terawatt hour
USA United States of America
USAID United States Agency for International Development
VRE Variable Renewable Energy
WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority
WPP Wind Power Project
I
List of Acronyms xiii
Stakeholder Entities
Stakeholder Entities Cyber Link
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) http://www.aedb.org!
Azad Jammu Kashmir Power Development

http:!!aj kpdo .com!
Organization (AJKPDO)
Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) http:!!www.cppa .gov. pkl
Energy Department, Government of Punjab http:!Iwww. energy. punjab.gov. pk!
Energy Department, Government of Sindh http:!!sindhenergy.gov. pk/
Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) http://www.fesco.com. pk!
Federal Ministry of Energy http:!!www. mowp.gov. pk!
Federal Ministry of Finance http:!!www.finance.gov. pk!
Federal Ministry of Planning, Development &

https:!!www. pc.gov . pkl
Reforms
Government of Azad Jam mu and Kashmir http:!!www.aj k. gov. pk!
Government of Baluchistan http:llwww. balochistan.gov. pk!
Government of Gilgit Baltistan http:!!www.gilgitbaltistan.gov.pk!
Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa http:!!kp.gov.pkl
Government of Pakistan http:!!pakistan.gov . pk!
Government of Punjab https:h'www.punjab.gov. pk/
Government of Sindh http:!!www.sindh .gov. pk!
Gujranwala Electric Power Company (GEPCO) http:!!www.gepco.com.pkl
Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (H ESCO) http:!!www.hesco.gov.pkl
International Monetary Fund https:!!www.i mf.org!en
Islamabad Electric Supply Company (lESCO) http:llwww. iesco .com. pk!
K-Electric (KE) https:llwww. ke.com . pk!
xivl Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Stakeholder Entities Cyber Link
Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) http://www.Iesco.gov. pkl
Multan Electric Power Company (MEPCO) http://www.mepco.com. pkl
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

http://www.nepra.org.pk/
(NEPRA)

http://www. ntdccom. pk/
(NTDC)
Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization

http://www.pedo.pkl
(PEDO)
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) http://www. paec.gov. pkl
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics http://www. pbs.gov. pkl
Peshawar Electric Supply Company (PESCO) http://www. pesco.gov. pk/
Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPlB) http://www. ppib.gov. pk/
Quetta Electric Supply Company (QESCO) http://www.qesco.com.pkl
Sukkur Electric Power Company (SEP00) http://www.sepco.com. pkl
Tribal Areas Electric Supply Company (TESCO) http://www.tesco.gov. pk/
Water and Power Development Authority

http://wwv.wapda.gov. pkl
(WAPDA)
Stakeholder Entities I xv
Foreword
The Report on "Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30" presents
the results of the latest expansion planning studies conducted by the Load Forecast and
Generation Planning (LF&GP) team of Power System Planning (PSP), National
Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) as per the criteria specified in the
Assumption Set approved by Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCoE) and Council of
Common Interests (CCI) on 26th August & 6th September, 2021 respectively.
This report facilitates a comprehensive view of the future electricity demand forecast,
existing generating system and future power generation options in addition to the expansion
study results. It is pertinent to highlight that annual updating of this plan remains a regulatory
obligation on the part of the NTDC.
In a bid to manage higher level of transparency as well as to make this report

comprehensive, various aspects have been included such as list of stakeholder entities who
have shared the input data for the IGCEP; software tools used; generation planning process,
etc. However, the LF&GP-PSP Team would certainly welcome suggestions and comments
for adding further value to this important regulatory obligation of NTDC.
I am extremely pleased to share that IGCEP 2021-30 has been prepared through the
exclusive efforts of NTDC professionals precisely the LF&GP-PSP Team. This team is
young yet upbeat and committed to continue learning, delivering and growing. In view of
their enthusiastic willingness to learn and contribute in the best interest of NTDC and
Pakistan, I envisage this team, in a short span of time, to shape into a bench of professionals
complementing towards securing and sustaining self-sufficiency in terms of outputs at par
with the international standards.
Engr. Farooq Rashid

Chief Engineer, Load Forecast and Generation Planning
September, 2021
xvii Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Executive Summary
Pursuant to the provisions of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) Grid
Code i.e., Planning Code (PC) —4 and PC 4.1, National Transmission and Despatch Company
(NTDC) has prepared Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30
covering 0 — 10 years time frame i.e., from 2021 to 2030 encapsulating power generation
additions required to meet the future energy and power demand of NTDC system.
The report presents the results of the generation capacity expansion planning study carried
out by Load Forecast and Generation Planning (LF&GP) team of Power System Planning
(PSP), NTDC.
This generation planning study is composed of two key processes: 1) Load forecast; followed
by 2) Generation capacity expansion and despatch optimization. Both processes involve
complex statistical and computation efforts performed using dedicated softwares.
Table El shows a summary of the forecast results for the horizon 2021 to 2030.
Table El: Summary of Load Forecast (2021-30)
Normal
Energy Peak Demand
GWh MW
2020-21 130,652 23,792
159,319 28,027
181,834 32,276
207,418 37,129
ACGR 2021 -30 5.27% 5.07%
The least cost, long-term generation expansion plan for NTDC system for the period 2021 to
2030 is developed using generation planning software - PLEXOS. The IGCEP 2021-30 is
developed through a rigorous data modelling and optimization exercise based on the existing
and future generation power plants, existing policy framework, existing contractual obligations,
natural resource allocations, relevant provisions of Grid Code, CCI approved Assumption Set.
For the study, 6,447 MW of existing power generation capacity is retired during the plan
horizon.
Catering to the software pre-requisites, hourly demand forecast is developed specially to

account for the intermittency of variable renewable energy resources such as wind and solar.
The results show that to meet a demand of 37,129 MW by the year 2030, a generation capacity
of 61,112 MW is proposed, which include utilization of existing generation facilities,
consideration of committed power plants and optimization of candidate power plants by the
tool. It is to highlight that to meet the demand by the year 2030, the share from variable
renewable energy (VRE) resources stands out to be 7,932 MW, 5,005 MW and 749 MW of
Solar, Wind and Bagasse, respectively.
I
Executive Summary xvii
Salient features of this plan include i) inclusion of VREs; ii) Minimal reliance on imported fuels
i.e. imported coal, Re-gasified Liquid Natural Gas (RLNG) and Residual Furnace Oil (RFO)
based technologies; and iii) increased share of hydropower as well as local coal. Inclusion of
VREs, hydro and Thar coal will help in lowering the basket price of the overall system thus
providing much needed relief, though in the long run, to the end consumers.
o.ioa
kg-CO2/kWh
Indigenlzation Installed Capacity Carbon Emissions
Figure El: Summary of Results
The self-sufficient ratio of primary energy i.e. the contribution of energy generation by
indigenous power sources stands at 60% in the year 2021, where, as per results,
indigenization of energy generation is envisaged to achieve 90.8% by 2030 which corresponds
to higher energy security in the country.
Similarly, the IGCEP 2021-30 also addresses the impact of carbon emissions due to addition
of power generation in future. Carbon emissions in the country by power generation accounts
for 0.356 kg-CO2/kWh in the year 2021 and this indicator reduces to 0.198 kg-CO2/kWh by
2030 which is even less than average of Organization for Economic Co-operation &
Development (OECD) countries.
It is evident from the results of the simulation that during the coming five years, the contribution
of gas fired power plants in the generation mix (GWh) will decrease from present 15% to mere
6%. Similarly, with the induction of new local coal based committed power plants in Thar,
during the next 5 years, share of local coal in the generation mix will enhance to 15%;
The RLNG based plants, though installed and available are envisaged to have a decreasing
share in the energy mix from 2021 to 2030 i.e. from 18% to 2% in 2025 and then eventually
falling nearly to 0% in 2030. Similar trend is there for imported coal-based plants whose
contribution in the overall generation mix falls from 21 % in 2021 to only 9% by the year 2030.
Moreover, the share of solar and wind in the overall energy mix increases from about 3% in
2021 to 16% in 2030. Tables E2 & E3 show the Installed Capacity (MW) & Energy Generation
(GWh) respectively by year 2030.
xviiillndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Table E2: Summary of Installed Capacity (MW) by 2030
Technology Installed Capacity (MW)
Imported Coal 4,920
Local Coal 3,630
RLNG 6,786
Gas 2,582
Nuclear 3,635
Bagasse 748.6
Solar 7,932
Hyd ro 23,653
Cross Border 1,000
Wind 5,005
RFO 1,220
Total (MW) 61,112
Table E3: Summary of Energy Generation (GWh) by 2030
Technology Energy Generation (GWh)

Imported Coal 18,448
Local Coal 23,145
RLNG 686
Gas 5,623
Nuclear 24,910
Baggase 3,380
Solar 15,916
Hydro 94,649
Cross Border 3,436
Wind 17,225
RFO
Total (GWh) 207,418
The overall generation capacity in the system increases from 34,776 MW in 2021 to 61,112
MW in 2030. Major increase in the capacity is observed in the hydropower, solar and wind
plants. New solar and wind plants are optimized by PLEXOS being cheaper source of energy.
This results in the capacity addition of 7,000 MW of solar & 3,062 MW of Wind up till 2030.
PLEXOS also computes Net Present Value (NPV) of the power generation operations and
investments of existing and future power plants by 2030, based on the objective function for
I
Executive Summary xix
the optimization exercise. The total NPV of investment required to manage generation
infrastructure construction and operations by 2030 is 39.2 Billion US $. It is pertinent to
mention that NPV includes CAPEX and OPEX. It is pertinent to mention here that the total
NPV cost neither includes the existing capacity payments nor the CAPEX of committed plants.
The generation planning exercise demands extensive data collection and strenuous efforts to
streamline access to data for future exercises pertaining to forecasting and generation
capacity expansion and despatch optimization. The team look forward to proactive response
by the input data providing entities for this purpose.
The IGCEP 202 1-30 also facilitates a food for thought through 'The Way Forward' with respect
to structural changes in the power sector planning process with enhanced role of distributed
generation and reduction in the large plants distant from the load centers. Further,
indigenization of RE technologies through local manufacturing is also suggested to lower the
basket price and thus providing a relief to the end consumer as well as saving precious foreign
exchange while maximizing the utilization of nature's endowment bestowed upon Pakistan.
xxi Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

]TAT1DdS1Td
lEft
DNJIIS OJ
1. Setting the Perspective
1.1. Generation Planning — A Subset of Power System Planning
Power system planning is an important subset of the integrated energy planning. Its objective
is, therefore, to determine a minimum cost strategy for long-range expansion of the power
generation, transmission and distribution systems adequate to supply the load forecast within
a set of prevailing technical, economic and political constraints.
Generation expansion planning concerns decisions for investment pertaining to development

of different types of power plants over the long-term horizon — 10 years for IGCEP 2021-30.
The goal of this plan is to improve decision-making under different long-term uncertainties
while assuring a robust generation expansion plan with least cost and minimum risk.
As depicted in the Figure 1-1, generation planning is at the heart of planning cycle. In an
idealistic scenario, the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP), a mandate of Ministry of Planning,
Development and Special Initiatives is meant to provide the fuel mix targets for all sectors of
the economy including the power sector and such targets are adopted under the electricity
policy. The IGCEP is prepared to ensure its maximum contribution in energy security,
sustainability and affordability while considering policy inputs and broader macroeconomic
perspectives. Under Section 32 of NEPRA Act, such integration should be ensured that brings
the full dividends of the integrated planning.
However, in absence of the natural resource allocation targets for power generation, the
IGCEP optimizes the generation costs to ensure that adequate generation is added at least-
cost to meet the load of the future with its given load shape, which also brings tremendous
benefits over back of the envelop based plans, leading to higher costs, shortages or surpluses.
Planning Cycle Procurement
Integrated Energy Plan PPIB/AEDB/PPDB/etc

(IEP)
" Technologytype
V Size
Fuel Mix Targets for V Timings
Energy Sector
Indicative Generation
Energy Capacity Expansion Plan Procurement Plan
Fuel Mix Targets and..
Forecast Electricity Policy Other Policy Options (IGCEP)
(Grid Code PC 4)
Long Term Forecast Reconciled Demand & Run Procurement

(Grid Code PC 4.2) Energy Forecast
Process or Issue LOIs
Transmission System
Medium Term Forecast
Expansion Plan
(PMS)
(Grid Code PC 4.1)
Transmission
Investment Plan
(Grid Code PC 4.2)
Figure 1-1: Planning Cycle Leading to Procurement
Setting the Perspective Ii

1.2. Preamble
Looking back at the relevant previous milestones, following five (05) major generation
expansion plans have been formulated by the then WAPDA and now NTDC with the
assistance of foreign/local consultants coupled with in-house efforts:
a. National Power Plan (NPP 1994-2018) developed by Canadian Consultant, M/s ACRES
International Limited;
b. National Power System Expansion Plan (NPSEP 2011-2030) developed by Canadian
Consultant, M/s SNC Lavalin;
c. Least Cost Plan (LCP 2016-2035) developed by Japanese Consultant, M/s International
Institute of Electric Power, Ltd. (IlEP); and
d. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2040
e. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2047
In compliance to the directions of the Authority, NTDC developed and submitted the IGCEP
2021-30 in May2021, based on the Assumption Set approved by CCoE dated 22nd April 2021.
However, the Authority returned the same with the directions to seek prior approval of
Assumption Set from CCI. Furthermore, National Electricty Policy (NEP) approved by CCI on
June 21, 2021 also requires approval of IGCEP assumptions set by the CCI.
In view of the above and after detailed deliberations and consensus among NTDC, MoE
(Power Division), CPPA-G, provinces and AJK, the IGCEP Assumption Set initiated by MoE
(PD) was finally approved by CCI on September 6, 2021.
This revised version of IGCEP 2021-30 (Sept. 2021) has been developed based on the
Assumption Set approved by CCI, using generation capacity expansion planning tool i.e.
PLEXOS, by considering all the existing, committed and candidate power plants.
1.3. Introduction
In view of its rapidly increasing dependence for enhanced access thereof, electricity is today
recognized as the most critical pre-requisite for improving the lives of people of a country and
Pakistan is not an exception. Therefore, certain electricity indices such as per capita
consumption of electricity and access to electricity are used to express the economic strength
of a country. Electricity is a unique kind of commodity since it is economically not viable to
store its large quantum and it has to be consumed instantaneously. Further, certain ground
realities such as seasonal variations, consumers' varying choices make the demand forecast
process quite difficult. On the other hand, insufficient as well as surplus generation capacity
adversely affects the economy. Careful planning of the power sector is, therefore, quite
complex while carrying great importance since the decisions to be taken involve the
commitment of large resources, with potentially serious economic risks for the electrical utility
and the economy as a whole.
The best utility practices pertaining to planning methodologies are there for all the three main
components of a power system, and each one is in itself a major field of study. Least cost
generation planning is one of the important elements of overall integrated planning of
electricity sector. Therefore, and further in compliance to NERPAs approved Grid Code clause
PC-4 (Forecasts and Generation Expansion Plan) and PC-4.1 (Generation Capacity
21 Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Additions), this long-term least cost generation plan or the IGCEP is prepared for review and
approval by NEPRA, the Regulator.
The IGCEP is prepared based on long-term electricity demand forecast prepared by NTDC,
updated generation commitment schedule and other parameters.
Identify
Require
-ments
Provide IGCEP Satisfy

Plan Objectives LOLP
Cater
Growth
Figure 1-2: The IGCEP Objectives
1.4. Objectives of the IGCEP
The IGCEP is envisioned to meet the following objectives, as highlighted in the Figure 1-2:
a. Identify new generation requirements by capacity, fuel technology and commissioning

dates on year-by-year basis;
b. Satisfy the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) not more than 1 % year to year, as initially
set under the Grid Code: PC -4.1;
c. Cater for the long-term load growth forecast and reserve requirements pursuant to the
Grid Code; and
d. Provide a least cost optimal generation expansion plan for development of hydroelectric,
thermal, nuclear and renewable energy resources to meet the expected load demand
up to the year 2030
1.5. Scope and Planning Horizon
The IGCEP covers the whole country except Karachi. K-Electric, a vertically integrated power
utility, managing all three key stages — generation, transmission and distribution — of producing
and delivering electrical energy to consumers within the geographical jurisdiction of the city of
Karachi. However, the IGCEP 2021-30 includes an export of 1,100 MW from NTDC system to
K-Electric in summer months upto 2023, which is further increased to 2,050 MW after
commissioning of 500 kV KANUPP Karachi Interconnection (KKI) grid station by K-Electric,
as detailed in proposed tri-partite agreement among K-Electric, NTDC & CPPA-G, till the end
of study horizon. The planning horizon of the IGCEP is from the year 2021 to 2030.
Setting the Perspective I 3

1.6. Nature of the IGCEP
Overall purpose of the IGCEP is the fulfillment of outlines, actions, and strategies as stipulated
in the relevant policies and decisions of Government of Pakistan, latest generation
technologies, constraints and certain regulatory obligations. The focus of this plan is to identify
generation additions, by capacity and fuel type along with commissioning dates, for a certain
plan period, through optimal use of all available generation resources. The system's optimum
expansion is determined by the IGCEP considering various limitations and factors such as
governmental policies, investment costs, operation costs, contractual obligations, fuels,
reserve requirements, maintenance allowance, etc. For this purpose, generation optimization
model based on the state-of-the-art generation planning tool i.e. PLEXOS include elaboration
of projected electric power demand upto the year 2021-30 and various other characteristics
such as hydrology of existing and future hydro power projects, fuel costs estimations and all
technical and financial data pertaining to existing and potential generation options i.e. feasible
hydro power, thermal and renewables future projects potential generation options, and
optimization of all options. The IGCEP is developed as a suggested starting point for the
preparation of a determinative Transmission System Expansion Plan as next step for the
overall PSP process.
However, the IGCEP is meant to be considered as an indicative generation expansion plan,

since it will be updated on yearly basis to account for any change in generation technologies
trends, governmental policies, progress/priorities of different project execution agencies and
project sponsors in developing the generation facilities, etc.
1.7. Rationale for Preparation of the IGCEP
Pursuant to the provisions of the Grid Code i.e. Planning Code (PC) -4 and P0-4.1, NTDC
is mandated for preparation of the IGCEP on annual basis for review and approval of NEPRA.
This plan shall take-into account the objectives/criteria as mentioned under sub-section 1.1
above and shall be used as an input for NTDC's Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP)
as stated in the PC 4.2. Relevant excerpts from the PC 4 of the Grid Code are as follows:
PC 4: Each year, the NTDC shall prepare and deliver to NEPRA a

Ten-Year "Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP)"
covering 0-10 Year timeframe. NTDC shall provide this IGCEP of
NTDC Plan."
PC 4: "The Plan shall be subject to review and approval by NEPRA."
PC 4.1: 'The NTDC Plan shall be based on a twenty-year Load

Demand and Energy Forecast and shall be prepared according to a
Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) methodology established under
this Grid Code, and NEPRA Transmission Performance Standard
Rules."
PC 4.1: "The NTDC Plan shall be submitted to NEPRA on or befor

April 15 for the next financial year."
41 Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

The IGCEP plays a key role in the expansion of the power system. The Plan ensures that the
demand in the system is adequately met by adding generation capacity on least cost basis.
The plan takes long term view and therefore is indicative in nature in the long run, however, it
provides a perspective to potential investors and other players in the market regarding the
future demand and supply situation and the probable generation mix.
Along with serving as guiding document for procurement of power for regulated consumers,
the IGCEP will also provide basis for the expansion of the transmission network. The IGCEP
identifies the types of generation to be added to the system and also the location in case of
hydro power plants. The IGCEP is used as one of the main inputs to the TSEP along with
spatial demand growth to work out the power evacuation requirements and serving the load
in a reliable manner.
Setting the Perspective I 5

2. POWER SYSTEM
OF PAKTSTAN
na" .11a -
ac.c ta, -
p
2. Power System of Pakistan
2.1. Economics of Pakistan Power Sector
Electricity is a critical input for economic development and correspondingly power sector
comprises an indispensable infrastructure in any economy. Providing adequate, reliable and
affordable electric power is essential for economic development, human welfare and better
living standards. The growth of economy along with its global competitiveness hinges on the
availability of reliable and affordable power to all consumers throughout the country. Electricity
is central to achieving economic, social and environmental objectives of sustainable human
development. Development of different sectors of economy is impossible without matching
development of the power sector.
As an emerging economy, country's demand for electricity is enormous and its GDP is
positively related with the sale of electricity as shown in Chart 2-1. This is in concurrence with
a similar trend with all developing nations where GDP and sale of electricity have a direct
relationship and growth in GDP causes increased sale of electricity as opposed to the
developed nations where the causal relationship between GDP and sale of electricity is either
opposite than that of developing countries or the two determinants of economic growth are
decoupled from each other.
Sale (GWh) GDP Million Rs.
120,000 14,000,000
100,000 12,000,000
10,000,000
80,000
8,000,000
60,000
6,000,000
40,000
4,000,000
20,000 2,000,000
0 0
C r'J - LO C (N 03 C (N D 03 C (N - LO 03 C (N LO 03 C
N N N N N 03 03 CO CO CO C O C C C C C C C ,-1 '( 1 ,4 (N
0 C C C C C C O m C 0 0 0 C C C C C C C C C C C
,-1 ,-1 ,-1 ,-1 ,- ,-1 ,-1 ,-4 ,-1 ,-( ,-1 (N (N (N rJ c'J (N (N (N (N (N (N
Chart 2-1: GDP (million PKR) vs Sale of Electricity (GWh)
During the fiscal year 2020-21, the country has seen 3.94% growth rate in total GDP (source:
Economic Survey of Pakistan) whereas growth rates of 2.77%, 3.57% and 4.43% was
observed in agriculture, industrial and commercial/services sectors, respectively. During the
same period, 7.09% growth rate in consumption of electricity has been observed. This
increase in GDP as well as in usage of electricity shows strong association between GDP and
electricity.
2.2. Power Generation
By the end of September, 2021, the total installed generation capacity of NTDC system
reached to 34,776 MW of which 34% remains RE comprising of hydro, solar, wind and
Power System of Pakistan I 9

bagasse-based technologies, and 66% thermal plants which comprises of natural gas, local
coal, imported coal, RFO, RLNG and nuclear based technologies, as shown in the Chart 2-2.
Solar, 400, 1%
Bagasse, 259, 1%
.Wind, 1336, 4%
Gas, 3427, 10%
Hydro, 9898, 28%
FO, 6507, 19%

Nuclear, 2,490, 7%
Imp. Coal, 3960, 11%

RLNG, 5838, 17%
Dom. Coal, 660, 2%
Bagasse Solar Wind Gas E FO RLNG u Dom. Coal Imp. Coal • Nuclear • Hydro
Chart 2-2: Installed Capacity (MW) as of September 2021
The energy produced by power generation fleet during the fiscal year 2020-21 totaled 129,991
GWh and was contributed approximately 30% by hydroelectric plants, 59% by thermal plants
which contains natural gas, local coal, imported coal, RFO and RLNG based technologies, 8%
by nuclear plants, and 3% by renewable energy power plants which covers solar, wind and
bagasse-based technologies as shown in the Chart 2-3.
Chart 2-3: Annual Energy Generation (GWh) as of 2020-21
Furthermore, there has been an increasing trend in the electricity generation (GWh) statistics
from 2014 to 2019, however, a slight decrease is observed in the year 2020 due to lesser
1O Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

demand owing to struggling economy coupled with the impacts of Covid-19 pandemic.
However, in 2021, the trend is again increasing as shown in the Chart 2-4.
Electricity Generation/Supply (TWh)
I I.
60
102 108
40
20
0
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Chart 2-4: Historical Annual Energy Generation (GWh) from 2013-14 to 2020-21
Overall, the power demand (MW) has been growing steadily with improved development of
electricity supply in the country as it is evident from the electricity peak demand trend as shown
in the Chart 2-5.
Electricity Demand (Peak)- MW

30,000
25,000
1 11 I ii ii 111111
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000 1
0
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2015-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
I Recorded Demand Computed Demand
Chart 2-5: Historical Peak Electricity Demand (MW) from 20 13-14 to 2020-21
Peak demand in the country during 2020-21 is 23,792 MW - recorded during the month of
June 2021.
2.3. Power Distribution
By the year 2021, total number of electricity consumers have reached to 31,529,568 out of
which 27,227,283 belong to domestic category, 3,359,777 belong to commercial category,
357,366 consumers fall under industries, there are 359,124 agriculture consumers, bulk
supply consumers are 4,417, public lighting connections have been recorded as 11,284 and
210,353 consumers are categorized as general services consumers as shown in Chart 2-6.
Power System of Pakistan 11

During the year 2021, domestic consumption had a share of 49,814 GWh, commercial
consumption was 6,688 GWh, industrial consumption was 24,663 GWh, agriculture
consumption had a share of 10,116 GWh and 8,089 GWh has been consumed by other
categories as shown in Chart 2-7.
86%
Others i;
Agriculture
1,
Commercial
Industrial 1%
11%
Chart 2-6: Percentage Mix of Number of Electricity Consumers
Chart 2-7: Percentage Mix of Category-wise Sale (GWh) of Electricity
Electricity consumption in Pakistan is dominated by the domestic sector followed by industrial

and agricultural sector as shown in chart 2-7.

3. THE IGCEP
METHODOT 4OGY
3. The IGCEP Methodolgy
3.1. Regulatory Compliance
Pursuant to the Grid Code, the IGCEP covers the future development of hydroelectric, thermal,
nuclear and renewable energy resources to meet the anticipated load demand up to the year
2030. It identifies new capacity requirements by capacity, technology, fuel and commissioning
dates on year-by-year basis by complying with the various regulatory requirements as set out
through the provisions of the Grid Code including Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), the long-
term load growth forecast and system reserve requirements.
3.2. Data Collection Process
The data gathering process for the purpose of this study was quite rigorous; all the concerned
project executing entities were approached to provide the requisite data on the prescribed
format. For the first time, the data proformas were made available Online on NTDC website
through Google Forms (available at the web link http://ntdc.qov.pk/planninq-power) for
providing the requisite input data on the prescribed format, the said link was shared with all
the concerned project executing entities. The following process was followed for the collection
of various inputs I data I information pertaining to power plants from the concerned entities:
a. Specific data input formats were customized, involving suitable conversions, as per
requirements of the generation planning modelling tool i.e. PLEXOS.
b. Concerned entities were approached to share required data on customized data input
formats. Multiple reminders were despatched to ensure timely provision of requisite data.
c. Three awareness workshops on 'Data Preparation and Submission by the Project

Execution Agencies for Inclusion in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan
— IGCEP" were organized in Lahore during October-Novemeber 2020.
ci. All the data received was precisely analyzed for accuracy and completeness, and gaps
were identified and rectified I adjusted accordingly.
e. The data was developed I formulated as per requirement of the generation planning tool.
3.3. The IGCEP Data Sources and Associated Data Types
Following agencies shown in Figure 3-1 have contributed for the preparation of input data to
be used in IGCEP 2021-30 as listed below:
a. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB)
o Existing and future renewable energy projects
b. Azad Jammu Kashmir Power Development Organization (AJKPDO)
o Existing and future hydro power plants under the jurisdiction of AJ&K
c. Azad Jammu Kashmir Private Power Cell (AJKPPC)
o Existing and future hydro power plants under the jurisdiction of AJ&K
d. Central Power Purchasing Agency Guarantee Limited (CPPA-G)
The IGCEP Methodology I 17

Fuel prices and existing system merit order
e. Energy Department Sindh I Sindh Transmission and Dispatch Company (STDC)
Future hydro, thermal and renewables power plants under the jurisdiction of the
Sindh province
L Finance Division (Economic Adviser Wing)
Sector wise GDP projections
g. GENCOs
Existing and future thermal power plants in the public sector
h. National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA)
o Different types of input data were collected frdm NEPRA's publications I website
i.e. the latest values from NEPRA quarterly indexation were used to update the
costs.
i. National Power Control Centre (N FCC)
Monthly energy and MW capacities for existing wind and solar power plants
j. Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization (FE DO)
Existing and future hydro power plants under the jurisdiction of KPK
k. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)
o Existing and future nuclear power plants
I. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
o Input data for long-term forecast such as historic GOP and its components,
Consumer Price Index (CPl), etc.
rn. Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO)
o Category-wise sale, generation, number of consumers, transmission and

distribution losses etc.
n. Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB)
o Existing and future hydro and thermal power plants under 1FF mode
o. Punjab Power Development Board (PPDB)
o Existing and future hydro, thermal and renewables power plants under the
jurisdiction of the Punjab province
p. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
Existing and future hydro power plants to be developed by WAPDA
l8llndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

3.4. Financial Parameters
For existing system, cost data has been obtained from the latest merit order provided by
CPPA-G whereas for the future power plants, cost data shared by the concerned project
executing agencies, after indexation, have been considered.
3.5. The IGCEP Preparation Process Map
The IGCEP is prepared after following the process illustrated through Figure 3-2 and is
submitted to NEPRA for review and approval, following an extensive internal consultative
process.
J'&GP LF&GP
Database Databas
Input Load
Input Existing Input Committed Input Candidate
Forecast Data
Plants Data Projects Data Projects Data
for n-year
Lf&GP
Databas
Input Economic!
Financial
Pa ra meters
Consider
Assumption SeE
(Grid Code)
+
Merit Loading
Order (Economic
1 Despatch)
Sensitivity Rank of Simulation of
Seek Shortlist
Analysis Scenarios Alternate
ln-Housv Potentially
(Transmission (Cost Objective Schemes and
Approval Optimized Plans
Capacity) Function) Scenarios
YES
(DRAFT)
Indicative
Indicative
Approval Generatton
Gene ration Seek NEPRA Update LF&GP
Accorded by Capacity END
Capacity Approval Database
NEPRA Expansion Plan
Expansion Plan
Figure 3-1: The IGCEP Preparation Process
3.6. Criteria and Other Important Considerations for the IGCEP
3.6.1. Planning Timeframe
The planning period taken for this study is 10 years i.e from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2030.
3.6.2. Economic Parameters
The governing economic parameters considered for IGCEP 2021-30 are presented in
Annexure B-2 and B-3.
The IGCEP Methodology 19 I

3.6.3. Generation System Reliability
The capability of the generating system to meet the forecast peak demand remains a major
challenge in the generation planning. In this perspective, the IGCEP takes into account the
scheduled maintenance and forced outages allowance of all the generating units as well as
the seasonal variability in the energy and capacity of the hydroelectric and RE plants.
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE-days) or equivalently Loss of Load Probability (LOLP-%) is

considered as generating system reliability criteria. For the purpose of the IGCEP, yearly
LOLP criteria of not more than 1%, as stipulated in the Grid Code, has been adopted.
3.6.4. Hydrological Risk
For the IGCEP, average seasonal values of monthly energy and capacity, as conveyed by the
concerned project executing agencies, have been used to capture the seasonality for the
hydroelectric plants.
3.6.5. Renewable Energy (RE) Generation
Pakistan power system has commissioned a relatively fair quantum of RE generation in the
generation mix in the past few years. As of September, 2021, 400 MW utility scale solar and
1,336 MW wind power on-grid projects, have been commissioned. Subsequent to Cabinet
Committee on Energy (CCoE) decision of April 4, 2019, defined under Category-I & II, several
wind, solar and bagasse power projects at different stages of development are envisaged to
be added into the national grid during the next couple of years.
Furthermore, pursuant to the CCI approved assumption set, current IGCEP iteration has been
done under existing targets (20% by 2025 and 30% by 2030 of installed capacity) as per ARE
Policy 2019, subject to least cost principle, and including hydro projects in the definition of RE
for the purpose of meeting such targets.
Based on the available data, plant factors of 42.5% and 23% for candidate wind and solar
power projects have been considered, respectively.
3.6.6. System Reserve Requirement
Reserve of a generating system is a measure of the system's ability to respond to a rapid

increase in load or loss of the generating unit(s). In this study, two types of reserves have
been modelled as per provisions of the Grid Code i.e. contingency and secondary.
3.6.6.1. Contingency Reserve
The contingency reserve is the level of generation over the forecasted demand which is
required from real time pIus 24 hours so as to cover for uncertainties. This reserve is provided
by the generators which are not required to be synchronized but they can be synchronized
within 30 minutes of the initiation of the Contingency and the corresponding fall in frequency.
As per best industry practices, this is equal to the capacity of the largest thermal generator in
the system. In this model, the Contingency Reserve is considered equivalent to 1,145 MW in
view of the induction of Karachi Nuclear (K-2), being the largest thermal unit in the system.

3.6.6.2. Secondary Reserve
The secondary reserve is a type of spinning reserve and it is the increase in power output of
the online generators following the falling frequency and is fully sustainable for 30 minutes
after achieving its maximum value in 30 seconds. It is equal to the one third of the largest unit
in the system. Hence, in this model 382 MW of the Secondary Reserve is considered
throughout the planning horizon.
3.6.7. Scheduled Maintenance of the Generation Projects

Scheduled maintenance plays an important role in retaining the desired efficiency and
reliability while at the same time preserving the useful life of a generating unit. It is assumed,
for the preparation of the IGCEP, that all generating units, except for VRE, will undergo an
annual maintenance program as provided by the concerned project executing agency.
3.6.8. System Load Characteristics

From the planning perspective, the system load to be met by the generating system is
represented by the system's hourly load for each year up till 2030 which totals to 87,648 hours
of load for the entire planning horizon. The load forecast provides the hourly load demands.
Normal scenario of the load forecast has been adopted in this study. The load forecast is
presented in Table 4-3.
3.6.9. Fuel Prices Indexation

Pakistan's electricity generation mix relies heavily on fossil fuels including RLNG, imported I
domestic coal, natural gas and furnace oil, hence, fuel price uncertainty is one of the major
determinants for a long-term generation expansion plan. Increase in demand and fear of
supply disruption exert an upward pressure on fuel prices. In this regard, the base fuel prices
have been taken as per latest Merit Order. These fuel prices are then indexed for future years
as per the Energy Information Authority (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (except for
domestic coal where Thar Coal & Energy Board tariff was applied). The variable price index
for each of the fuel-based technologies is given in Table 3-2.
Table 3-1: Fuel Price Indexation Factors
Fuel Oil Natural Gas! RLNG Imported Coal Uranium Thar Coal
Year
Variable Price Index for Fuel Based Technologies
2021 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2022 1.09 1.19 1.02 1.00 1.00
2023 1.21 1.17 1.00 1.00 0.99
2024 1.34 1.10 0.98 1.01 1.01
2025 1.43 1.07 0.97 1.01 0.94
2026 1.51 1.10 0.95 1.01 0.95
The IGCEP Methodology 121

Fuel Oil Natural Gasi RLNG Imported Coal Uranium Thar Coal
Year
Variable Price Index for Fuel Based Technologies
2027 1.57 1.13 0.95 1.01 0.95
2028 1.61 1.15 0.94 1.01 0.94
2029 1.65 1.19 0.93 1.02 0.95
2030 1.69 1.21 0.93 1.02 0.93
3.6.10. CAPEX of Renewable Energy Technology
Fuel prices volatility have encouraged calls for investments in renewables. Renewable energy,
including wind and solar, are quickly becoming cheapest forms of new electricity generation
across the globe. They have started replacing the conventional fuels to great extent for power
generation to meet the future demand growth throughout the world. The cheaper and widely
accessible renewable energy has the potential to substantially decrease the reliability of power
sector on expensive imported fuels.
Trend of cost reduction for the renewable technology is set to continue in the future and will
inevitably reduce the cost burdens, reliance on increasingly expensive fuels and hence
lowering the overall generation cost. The costs of renewables especially solar, wind and hybrid
are expected to be driven down further through energy policies, global trends and continuous
developments in solar and wind technologies. Renewables are needed to mitigate the
negative externalities of fossil fuels since primary energy consumption will grow into the future,
and this growing demand is currently dependent on fossil fuels.
It is apprised that for the IGOEP 2021-30, the CAPEX is degraded by 3.6% and 1% for solar
and wind respectively every year up till 2030 in line with various international projections
including Lazard, IRENA, etc. As compared to today's solar power plant CAPEX i.e. 531 $/kW,
it is gradually lowered to 382 $/kW by the year 2030. The CAPEX of wind is currently 955
$/kW which is steadily decreased to 872 $/kW in 2030. Similarly, CAPEX of BESS is currently
386 $/kW which is steadily decreased to 221 $/kW in 2030.
Future prices up till the year 2030, pertaining to REs i.e. Wind, Solar and BESS are given
below:
Table 3-2: CAPEX Indexation of Solar and Wind Based Technologies
Solar PV Wind BESS

(3.6%) (1%) (-6%)
Year
($/kW)
2021 531 955 386
2022 512 945 363
2211ndicat1ve Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

2023 493 936 341
2024 476 927 321
2025 458 917 301
2026 442 908 283
2027 426 899 266
2028 411 890 250
2029 396 881 235
2030 382 872 221
I
The IGCEP Methodology 23
4. LONG TERM ENERGY
AM DEMAND FORECAST
4. Long Term Energy and Demand Forecast
4.1. Energy and Power Demand Forecast
Energy and power demand forecast provides the basis for all planning activities in the power
sector. It is one of the decisive inputs for the generation planning. Planning Code (PC4) of the
Grid Code states:
Three levels of load forecasts i.e. high growth, medium growth and
low growth projections should be employed for a time horizon of at
least next twenty years for the long-term.
Factors that are to be taken into account while preparing the load
forecasts include economic activity, population trends,
industrialization, weather, distribution companies' forecasts,
demand side management and load shedding, etc.
The methodology employed to develop the energy and power demand forecast fulfills the
criteria specified in the Grid Code. The methodology and its results are explained in the
following sections.
4.2. Long-Term Demand Forecasting Methodology
The long-term demand forecast is based on multiple regression analysis, which is practiced
internationally as an econometric technique to develop robust mathematical relationship
between dependent and independent variables. Electricity sale is the variable under study.
The electricity consumption pattern varies for different economic sectors of the country namely
domestic, industrial, commercial and agriculture. In regard to this, multiple variables most likely
to affect the electricity sales were studied, for every sector individually, and tested for
significant quantitative relationships. These include electricity prices, GDP, population,
number of consumers, lag variables etc. The variables that impacted the sales most
significantly were selected for the final equations for electricity sales. Electricity consumption
(GWh) is then regressed on these independent variables using historical data for the period
1970-2020. The methodology of long-term load forecast is illustrated in the process flow map
in Figure 4-1.
The IGCEP MethodoIogy 27

DATA INPUT AND TESTING MODEL FORMATION FORECAST PREPARTION
Convert Derived
tO)
Elasticities from
Short to longrun
Input Relevant Develop Execute

Data in Equation by Standard Tests Model
Econometrics Selecting on Developed Validity Develop Forecast
Software (4.1] Variables Equation (4.5] Based on tong run

ElasticO)ies
Export Results to
Ree'.ove Data a MS Excel
ln-otatio vanities
Seek
Update LF&GP
In Souse 'as
Apov Database
SubroittolkEPRA&
Upload en NTDC
Web Portal
Figure 4-1: Process Flow of Methodology of Long-Term Demand Forecast
4.3 Data Sources
The data sources for the long-term demand forecast are as under:
a. GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is obtained from Economic Survey of Pakistan
2020-2 1 published by Finance Division, Government of Pakistan.
b. The GDP projections from 2022 to 2030 have been provided by the Finance Division of
Pakistan (Economic Adviser Wing). (Annexure A-i)
c. Energy Sales, Transmission & Distribution Losses and Energy Purchased data is
obtained from DISCOs Performance Statistics by PEPCO — June 2021
d. Category-wise average tariff is obtained from DISCOs Performance Statistics by PEPCO
—June 2021.
e. Peak Demand (MW) and Load management data is obtained from NPCC and PITC
f. The demand side management targets have been provided by NEECA.
4.4 Key Considerations
4.4.1 Demand Side Management
The impact in terms of energy (GWh) pertaining to demand side management has been
provided by NEECA considering an improvement in the energy efficiency of the electric
fixtures i.e. LEDs, fans, air conditioning, refrigeration etc. According to the study conducted by
NEECA, there will be an increase of upto 3% in the use of LEDs every year. NEECA has also
predicted an increase in usage of energy efficient fans and other equipments complying to
Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS). The annual targets set by NEECA are given
in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1: NEECA Energy Efficiency Targets
Energy Saving through Energy

Year Standards & Labeling
(GWh/Year)
2020-21 2,190
2021-22 3,765
2022-23 5 340
2023-24 6,916
2024-25 8,491
2025-26 10,066
2026-27 11,642
2027-28 13,217
2028-29 14,792
2029-30 16,368
4.4.2. Power Export to K Electric

The IGCEP 2021-30 includes an export of 1,100 MW from NTDC system to K-Electric in
summer months upto 2023, which is further increased to 2,050 MW after commissioning of
500 kV KANUPP Karachi Interconnection (KKI) grid station by K-Electric, till the end of study
horizon.
4.4.3. Load Management

For preparation of the Long Term Demand Forecast, Load management is incorporated to
account for the impact of load shedding being enforced in the country. Currently, multiple
factors are contributing towards load being shed such as emergency situations, DISCOs
Industrial cut and the technical constraints of NTDC and DISCOs. Hence, the impact of these
factors has been accounted for in the load management data.
4.5. Preparation of Demand Forecast

The electricity consumption of Pakistan is segregated into the following four major sectors:
a. Domestic;
b. Commercial;
c. Industrial; and
d. Agriculture
These aforesaid sectors typically show different consumption patterns throughout the year.
Hence, they are forecasted separately. The load demand forecast of these sectors is then
combined to obtain the forecast of total electrical energy demand. In order to forecast the
annual consumption of electricity up to the year 2030, a multiple regression model has been
Energy and Demand Forecast 29 I

T7
used. Electricity energy sale of the respective category is the dependent variable in the
regression model, whereas, the independent variables for each category are as follows:
a. Annual total GDP and its components i.e. agriculture sector, industrial sector and
services sector;
b. Tariff-wise electricity prices i.e. domestic, commercial, agriculture and industrial;
c. Number of consumers;
d. Lag of dependent and independent variables;
e. Consumer Price Index; and
f. Dummy variables
Considering the above mentioned factors, four equations are selected, one for each category
of electricity consumption. For statistical analysis, popular statistical software namely EViews
is used.
Ordinary Least Square technique is selected for the estimation of regression equation. The
equations are written in logarithmic form to evaluate elasticity in percentage. Various statistical
tests were performed to establish the significance of the relationship between the dependent
variable and the independent variables.
After thorough statistical analysis using EViews, the appropriate elasticity coefficients were
selected for all the four equations. These elasticities were then converted into long-term
elasticities. On the other hand, growth rates for independent variables such as total GDP,
electricity price, etc. were projected based on the past data. The long-term elasticities and the
projected independent variables were subsequently used in the equation to develop the long-
term energy forecast of each category using the equation below.
YT = Yr-i * (1 +GR of G)b *(1 +GR of R)C * (1+GR of L) d

Table 4-2 provides the description of all the variables used in this equation:
Table 4-2: Description of Dependent and Independent Variables
Variable Description
YT Electricity Demand of current year (Sales GWh)
Y-r-i Electricity Demand of previous year (Sales GWh)
GR Growth Rate
G, R, L Independent variable (GDP, Real Price, Lag)
Elasticities of independent variables (GDP, Real Price and Lag

b, c, d
respectively)
The demand forecast results of the four categories were combined to calculate the sale
forecast at the country level. It is important to mention here that, in order to calculate the
elasticities of commercial and industrial sectors the impact of load shedding on their historical
data has been considered for the study, provided the fact that load shedding does not hinder
or majorly affect the activities in these sectors. This is due to the alternative energy supplies
widely used in the sectors which keep their activities going.
/4
3OIIdicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Required generation (GWh) was calculated after adding projected distribution losses at 11 kV
and Transmission Losses at 132 kV and 500/220 kV according to the loss reduction plan of
respective DISCOs and NTDC. In order to convert the energy in peak demand, load factor
was calculated from energy generated and peak demand of the base year. The calculated
load factor was then projected for the future years. The projected load factor was then used
along with projected energy generation to forecast the peak demand.
4.6. Demand Forecast Numbers
Based on the variables and methodology explained above, the Table 4-3 highlights forecast
result for the Normal growth; which is also graphically illustrated in Chart 4-1.
Table 4-3: Annual Long-Term Energy and Power Demand Forecast
Normal Demand
Year Generation Peak Demand
GWh MW
2020-2 1 * 130,652 23,792
2021-22 136,151 24,574
2022-23 142,563 25,779
2023-24 159,319 28,027
2024-25 166,550 29,389
ACGR 2021-25 6.26% 5.42%
2025-26 174,102 30,814
2026-27 181,834 32,276
2027-28 190,037 33,829
2028-29 198,622 35,457
2029-30 207,418 37,129
ACGR 2026-30 4.47% 4.77%
ACGR 2021-30 5.27% 5.07%
* Actual Demand (MW) & Energy Generation (GWh)
Energy and Demand Forecast I 31

Peak Demand
38,000
36,000
34,000
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Year
Normal Scenerlo
Chart 4-1 Peak Demand (MW) Forecast 2021-2030
4.7. Hourly Demand Forecast
Hourly demand forecast has been developed to cater for the intermittency of variable
renewable energy sources. This is particularly important in view of the aggressive targets
envisioned by the GoP pertaining to renewable energy. Hence, the demand forecast of 87,648
hours have been estimated for the plan horizon. In this process, the forecasted annual peak
demand was converted into hourly demand based on the recent historical hourly demand and
generation pattern. The load duration curve for the year 2025 and 2030 is given Chart 4-2.
Load Duration Curve

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
2025
15,000 2030
10,000
5,000
0
-1 - N Q Cfl L.O C (J J CO -1 N C m O (N 1f CO cj N C m o o (N
,-i o N C C '-I rn Ui N CO O C (N m O N CO C m ui
m LO Oi (N Ui CO ,-1 Ui CO . N C Cfl (C) C m '.0 O (N Ui CO (N Ui CO
(N (N rn cfl m Ui Ui Ui Ui (.0 (.0 '.0 N N N CO CO
Hours
Chart 4-2: Load Duration Curve (2025 & 2030)

5. INSIDE TH H IGCEP
•i r W.
-
4'
.- . *
*. #
a * - •
j• •aa $ .. t%
___ a a •a a ___ 0
0* Oah12O 01 0
111000 0111010 00L00 -'
CC 2 2 01 0.1 ii 0
.Z.Z.Z2 02 0000
/77 02110 00 01 111 1 Q 1S Y\
0010 1000
0011 00 0300 01O
0220001 11 10
5. Inside the IGCEP
5.1. Introduction
The key objective of the generation expansion planning activity is to develop a least cost, long-
term generation expansion plan for NTDC system for the period 2021-30 to meet the maximum
load and energy demand whilst taking into account the regulatory requirements as stipulated
under PC 4 of the Grid Code, Assumption Set approved by CCoE and identified constraints.
The following section describes the key parameters and results of the generation planning
study.
5.2. Assumption Set approved by CCI

The IGCEP 2021 -30 has been developed as per following assumption set:
Demand Projection Assumptions:
1. Use 'normal' served demand forecast scenario for base case, out of the three load
forecast scenarios (Low, Normal, High) developed based on the following inputs:
i. Historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is
obtained from Economic Survey of Pakistan, published by Ministry of Finance,
Government of Pakistan.
ii. The long term GDP projections are developed in the light of data provided by
Finance Division.
iii. Sale and prices of electricity is obtained from Power Distribution Book, June 2020
- an annual publication by PEPCO.
2. Planning horizon of the study will be 2021 -30 (10 years) with annual updation.
3. Reserve and reliability requirements (LOLP = 1%) will be considered as per Grid Code.
4. Retirement of existing thermal power plants including GENCOs will be considered as
per expiry of contractual term of corresponding PPA and relevant CCoE decisions.
5. Till the expiry of contractual term of corresponding PPA and GSA, existing RLNG and
imported coal based projects will be given a minimum dispatch as per contractual
obligations.
Assumptions for Cost Data for Existing System:
6. Fuel costs and variable O&M costs will be based on the latest indexation/determination
by NEPRA. Fixed O&M costs will be based on NEPRA's latest quarterly indexation
(December 2020), as available on NEPRA's website.
7. Fixed O&M costs of power plants built under 1994 Power Policy are not available on
NEPRA's website, so these costs are obtained from previous data available with Power
System Planning, NTDC and CPPA (G).
Assumptions/criteria for Project selection:
8. A project will be input as 'committed' and its capital cost or CAPEX will not be entered
in the model, provided the project fulfills at least one of the following pre-requisites:
i. Has obtained LOS as of December 2020 for private sector projects. For Federal
and Provincial public sector projects, the PC-I has been approved and funding
Inside the IGCEP 35

secured (As of March 2021). However, M/s Jamshoro Unit-2 & M/s Chashma-5
Nuclear Plants shall be modelled as candidate projects to be evaluated under
"Least Cost Principle".
ii. G2G project: Power Generation projects which are listed under Federal
Government's international (bilateral or multilateral) commitments, if project I
financing agreements signed.
iii. Where timelines of completion of a project under G2G are not firmed up yet, the
software shall determine the timeline by which such a project must come online
based on its tariff optimization with respect to other available options.
iv. RE plants (Wind, Solar, Bagasse) enlisted in Category I & II of CCoE's decision
dated 4th April 2019.
v. RE on-grid power projects in balance target block share as stipulated in the ARE
Policy 2019 i.e. 20% by year 2025 and 30% by year 2030 (including net-metering),
candidate block will be considered on respective wind/solar/hybrid technologies
from the year 2023-24 onwards on least cost principle. The current IGCEP iteration
for RE projects will be done under existing targets as per ARE Policy 2019, subject
to least cost principle, and including Hydro Candidate projects in the definition of
RE (for the purpose of meeting such targets) to be ratified through an amendment
to the ARE Policy 2019 by CCI in due course.
vi. CODs for 'committed power projects' will be taken as per project security
documents (PPA/IA) or as conveyed by the competent forum / concerned
organization / entity.
Cost Data for Committed Power Projects:
9. Cost data of committed projects would be taken as per data/information provided by the
concerned project executing agency and NEPRA determined tariff.
10. For nuclear power plants, Variable O&M cost and Fixed O&M cost and operational data
as conveyed by Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) will be considered.
Cost Assumptions for Candidate Power Plants:
11. For nuclear power plants: Capital cost, Variable O&M cost and Fixed O&M cost and
operational data as conveyed by Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) will be
considered.
12. Local and imported coal power plant: Capital Cost, Variable O&M cost, Fixed FCC and
Fixed O&M cost will be taken from the latest NEPRA determined tariff for respective
technology.
13. RLNG based CCGT power plant: Capital cost, Variable O&M cost and Fixed O&M cost
will be taken from the latest NEPRA determined tariff for RLNG based CCGT.
14. RLNG based OCGT power plant: Fuel cost, Fixed O&M cost and Variable O&M cost of
latest available OCGT plant be considered while Capital cost for OCGT will be
considered as conveyed by the concerned project executing agency or as per best
international practice.
15. Wind, Solar and Bagasse based power plants: Capital cost, Variable O&M cost and
Fixed O&M cost will be taken from the latest available NEPRA's tariff determination. Fuel
3611ndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

price of bagasse based power plants will be considered as per latest available NEPRA
determined tariff.
16. Hybrid RE resources based power plant: Capital Cost, Variable O&M cost and Fixed
O&M cost shall be considered as conveyed by the concerned project executing
agencies.
17. Hydro power plant: Capital cost and Fixed O&M cost will be considered as shared by the
concerned project executing entities.
Process Assumptions:
18. All years correspond to fiscal years e.g. 2025 is the fiscal year July 1, 2024 to June 30,
2025.
19. All costs will be indexed as of December 2020.
For Hydro, the cost data shared by concerned project execution agencies has been indexed
and are given in Annexure B-3. The values for indexation were obtained from NEPRA's
website.
5.3. Adherence to Contractual Obligations

In order to develop an effective least cost generation capacity expansion plan that will meet
the future power needs of the country, the IGCEP adheres to the existing constraints such as
take or pay contractual obligations of at least minimum annual despatch of 66% for three
RLNG based power plants (Bhikki, Balloki & Haveli Bahadur Shah), 50% for existing imported
coal-based power plants (Sahiwal, China HUBCO & Port Qasim),and three low btu gas-based
plants(Uch-Il, Engro and Foundation).
5.4. Approach and Methodology

The development of the least cost generation capacity expansion plan is the process of
optimizing i) existing and committed generation facilities and ii) addition of generation from
available supply technologies/options, which would balance the projected demand while
satisfying the specified reliability criteria. For the purpose of the IGCEP, following methodology
has been adopted as illustrated in Figure 5-1:
a. First Step: Review the existing generation facilities, committed power projects and
explore the range of generation addition options available to meet the future demand.
b. Second Step: Determine the economically attractive / viable generation option (s).
c. Third Step: Define the Base Case subsequent to identification of the economically
attractive options.
d. Fourth Step: Develop the least cost plan whilst considering the reliability criteria and
reserve requirements under the already defined Base Case using the PLEXOS tool.
Step 2 Step 3
'Review 'Determine 'Define 'Develop

Existing Generation Base Case Least Cost
System Options Plan
Figure 5 -1: The IGCEP Data Modelling Approach
Inside the IGCEPI 37

5.5. Planning Basis
The generation planning criteria tabulated in the Table 5-1 is adopted for this study.
Table 5-1: Generation Planning Criteria
Parameter Value
Discount Rate 10%
Reliability Criteria (LOLP) 1%
Dollar Rate Rs. 158.3
CR1 (US) 269.195
CR1 (Local) 269.27
5.6. Existing Power Generation of Pakistan
Total installed capacity of existing NTDC system is 34,776 MW as of September 2021 whereas
the de-rated capacity is equivalent to 32,660 MW. The fuel wise break-up is shown in Chart
5-1:
Bagasse, 259, 1% Solar, 400, 1%

Wind, 1,336, 4%
Gas, 3427, 10%

Hydro, 9898, 28%
FO, 6507, 19%

Nuclear, 2,490, 7%
Imp. Coal, 3960, 11%

RLNG, 5838, 17%
Dom. Coal, 660, 2%
Bagasse Solar Wind Gas t FO RLNG Dom. Coal Imp. Coal • Nuclear • Hydro
Chart 5-1: Fuel-wise Generation Mix (MW) as of September 2021
38llndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

5.7. Retirement of Existing Power Plants
A significant quantum i.e. 6,447 MW of existing thermal power plants are scheduled to be
retired during the planning horizon of the IGCEP 2021-30. The retirement schedule for the
IGCEP 2021-30 is provided in the Table 5-2. For the purpose of the IGCEP, a power plant
stands retired either as per its PPAIEPA term or relevant CCoE decision. Major retirement of
generation capacity for the IGCEP 2021-30 corresponds to RFO based power plants, followed
by natural gas and then RLNG based power plants.
Table 5-2: Retirement Schedule of Existing Power System
Name of the Installed Fuel Retirement Year (FY)

Power Station Capacity (MW) Type
23 27 28 29 30
GTPS Block 4 U (5-9) 144 RLNG
KAPCO 1 400 RFO
KAPCO 2 900 RFO
KAPCO 3 300 RFO
Guddu-Il U(5-10) 620 Gas
Jamshoro-1 UI 250 RFO
Jamshoro-ll U4 200 RFO
Muzaffargarh-1 Ui 210 RFO
Muzaffargarh-1 U2 210 RFO
Muzaffargarh-1 U3 210 RFO
Muzaffargarh-Il U4 320 RFO
HUBCO 1,292 RFO
Kohinoor 131 RFO
Liberty 225 Gas
Lalpir 362 RFO
AES Pakgen 365 RFO
FKPCL 172 RLNG
Saba 136 RFO
Total (MW) 6,447

5.8. Committed Generating Units
Power Plants considered as committed projects based on the criteria stipulated in Assumption
Set approved by CCoE is shown in the Figure 5-3.
CCoE
Category I
& It
Committed
Projects
LOS! PC-I G2G

Approved Projects
& Funding (Federal
Secured Govt.)
Figure 5-2: Committed Projects Criteria

5.8.1. Committed Projects
Committed projects considered in the IGCEP are listed in the Table 5-3.
Table 5-3: List of Committed Projects
Name of Installed Expected

# Committed Fuel Type Agency Capacity Status Schedule of
Project (MW) Commissioning
PC-I
Approved.
1 Ranolia Hydro PEDO 17 & Dec-21
Financing
Secured
PC-I
Approved.
2 Jabori Hydro PEDO 10.2 & Dec-21
Financing
Secured
Catego-
3 Metro_Wind Wind AEDB 60 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
i Lakeside Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
5 NASDA Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
6 Artistic Wind 2 Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
7 Din Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
8 GuI_Electric Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
9 Act2 Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
10 Liberty_Wind_i Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Category-
11 Liberty_Wind_2 Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
II Project
Categor-
12 Indus_Energy Wind AEDB 50 Dec-21
- II Project
Category-
13 Zhenfa Solar AEDB 100 Dec-21
II Project
PC-I
Approved.
14 Koto Hydro PEDO 40.8 & Dec-21
Financing
- Secured
PC-I
Approved.
15 Chianwali HPP Hydro PPDB 5.38 & Dec-21
Financing
Secured
LOS
16 Lucky Local Coal PPIB 660 Jan-22
(Issued)

I
Committed Fuel Type Agency Capacity Status Schedule of
LOS
17 I Trimmu CCGT_RLNG PPIB 1,263 Apr-22
(Issued)
18 K-3 Nuclear PAEC 1,145 G2G Apr-22

PC-I
Approved.
19 Karora Hyd ro PEDO 11.8 & Mar-22
Financing
Secured
LOS
20 Thar TEL Local Coal PPIB 330 Mar-22
(Issued)
Category-
21 Helios Solar AEDB 50 Mar-22
II Project
Category-
22 HNDS Solar AEDB 50 Mar-22
II Project
Category-
23 Meridian Solar AEDB 50 Mar-22
II Project
PC-I
Approved.
24 Chamfall Hydro AJK 3.2 & Mar-22
Financing
Secured
LOS
25 Thar-1 (SSRL) Local Coal PPIB 1,320 May-22
(Issued)
PC-I
Approved.
26 Jagran-lI Hyd ro AJK 48 & May-22
Financing
Secured
LOS
27 ThaI Nova Local Coal PPIB 330 Jun-22
(Issued)
PC-I
Approved.
28 Deg Outfall Hyd ro PPDB 4.04 & Jun-22
Financing
Secured
Category-
29 Access_Electric Solar AEDB 11 Aug-22
I Project
Category-
30 Access_Solar Solar AEDB 12 Aug-22
I Project
PC-I
Approved.
Jamshoro Coal Oct-22
31 Imported Coal GENCO 660 &
(Unit-I)
Financing
Secured
LOS
32 Karot Hydro PPlB 720 Jun-23
(Issued)
Category-
33 Zorlu Solar PPDB 100 Jun-23
II Project

Corn rnitted Fuel Type Agency Capacity Status Schedule of
Category-
34 Siachen Solar AEDB 100 Jun-23
II Project
LOS
35 Gwadar Imported Coal PPIB 300 Jun-23
(Issued)
LOS
36 Siddiqsons Local Coal PPIB 330 Jun-23
(Issued)
PC-I
Approved.
37 Gorkin Matiltan Hydro PEDO 84 & Jul-23
Financing
Secured
LOS
38 Suki Kinari Hyd ro PPIB 884 Jun-23
(Issued)
LOS
39 Ria li-Il Hyd ro PPlB 7 Jul-23
(Issued)
Category-
40 Safe Solar AEDB 10 Sep-23
I Project
PC-I
Approved.
41 Manjhand Solar GOS' 50 & Sep-23
Financing
Secured
Category-
42 Western Wind AEDB 50 Nov-23
II Project
Category-
43 Trans_Atlantic Wind AEDB 48 Dec-23
II Project
Category-
44 Alliance Bagasse AEDB 30 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
45 Bahawalpur Bagasse AEDB 31.2 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
46 Faran Bagasse AEDB 27 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
47 Hamza-II Bagasse AEDB 30 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
48 HSM Bagasse AEDB 26.5 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
49 Hunza Bagasse AEDB 50 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
50 Indus Bagasse AEDB 31 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
51 Ittefaq Bagasse AEDB 31 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
52 Kashmir Bagasse AEDB 40 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
53 Mehran Bagasse AEDB 27 Dec-23
I Project

Project - (MW) Commissioning
Category-
54 RYK Energy Bagasse AEDB 25 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
55 Shahtaj Bagasse AEDB 32 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
56 Sheikhoo Bagasse AEDB 30 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
57 TAY Bagasse AEDB 30 Dec-23
I Project
Category-
58 Two Star Bagasse AEDB 50 Dec-23
Project
PC-,
Approved.
59 Chapari Charkhel Hydro PEDO 10.56 & Mar-24
Financing
Secured
PC-I
Approved.
60 Lawi Hydro PEDO 69 & Apr-24
Financing
Secured
PC-I
Approved.
61 TarbeIaExt5 Hyd ro WAPDA 1,530 & May-24
Financing
Secured
Cross Border
62 CASA GOP 1000 G2G Aug-24
Interconnection
LOS
63 Kathal-Il Hydro PPIB 8 Dec-24
(Issued)
PC-I
Approved.
Unit 1-3: Apr-25
64 Dasul Hyd ro WAPDA 2160 &
Unit 4-6: Nov-25
Financing
Secured
PC-I
Approved.
65 Mohmand Hydro WAPDA 800 & Apr-26
Financing
Secured
PC-I
Approved.
66 Keyal Khwar Hyd ro WAR DA 128 & Feb-27
Financing
Secured
PC-I
Approved.
67 Harpo Hydro WAPDA 34.5 & Apr-27
Financing
Secured
LOS
68 Azad Pattan Hyd ro PPIB 700.7 Sep-27
(Issued)

Pc-I
Approved.
69 Gabral Kalam Hydra PEDO 88 & Oct-27
Financing
Secured
Pc-I
Approved.
70 Madyan Hydro PEDO 157 & Oct-27
Financing
Secured
Pc-I
Approved.
71 Balakot Hydro PEDO 300 & Nov-27
Financing
Secured
LOS
72 Kohala Hydro PPIB 1,124 Dec-28
(Issued)
PC-I
Approved.
73 Diamer Bhasha Hydro WAPDA 4,500 & Feb-29
Financing
Secured
Total (MW): 22,415
5.9. New Generation Options
The candidate generation technologies, selected to be fed into the model, are as follows:
a. Steam PP on Imported Coal (660 MW); reference China HUBCO -
b. Steam PP on Thar Coal (660 MW); reference - SSRL (operational data) and Siddiq
Sons (cost data)
c. Combined Cycle PP on RLNG (1,263 MW); reference Trimmu -
d. Gas Turbine on RLNG (400 MW); reference - Trimmu Open Cycle

(operational data) and CAPEX as per data available with PSP
e. Nuclear Steam PP on Uranium (1,100 MW); reference PAEC candidate -
f. Wind Turbine (Block of ~ 1,000 MW); reference - Latest Tariff
g. Solar PV (Block of ~ 1,000 MW); reference - Latest Tariff
h. Bagasse (Block of ~ 100 MW); reference Upfront Tariff 2017

-
i. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), (100 MW with 100 MWh storage); reference
- Lazard Report 2020
j. Rahim Yar khan Imported Coal Based Power Plant (660 MW)
k. Hybrid Re-powering of Existing Muzaffargarh (Unit-4), CCGT-RLNG (933 MW)
I. KAPCO Imported Coal (660 MW)
Inside the lGCEPI 45

m. Jamshoro Imported Coal Unit-Il (660 MW)
n. C-5 Nuclear Power Plant (1,221 MW)
o. Thar Block VI-Oracle- Local Coal Based Power Plant (1,320 MW)
5.10. Hydro Projects and Screening
Data for hydro power projects was obtained from the relevant project executing agencies. A
total of 133 Hydro Candidates are given to the model for optimization. The Annualized Cost
for all candidate hydro plants are indexed as per latest NEPRA available indexation and is
presented in Annexure B-5.
5.11. Performance Characteristics of Generic Thermal Candidates
Generic Candidate thermal options include Gas Turbines (GTs), Combined Cycle Gas
Turbines (CCGT5) using RLNG and Steam Turbines (STs) using Imported Coal, Local Coal
and Nuclear Fuel. In order to develop a least cost generation expansion plan, it is necessary
to examine the economic viability of each thermal option and select the least cost supply
options taking into account technical characteristics, economic and financal parameters and
operational requirements. Table 5-4 shows the performance characteristics of the thermal
candidate plants.
Table 5-4: Performance Characteristics of Generic Thermal Power Plants
Imported Coal Fired Combined Combustion Generic

Coal Fired Steam Cycle on Turbine on Nuclear
Performance
Steam Thar RLNG RLNG PP
Characteristics
660 MW 660 MW 1,263 MW 400 MW 1,100 MW
A Net Capacity (MW) 625 607 1,243 396 1,018
Technical Parameters
B
Heat Rate at
9.3 9.23 5.88 9.464 9.73
Maximum Load
Scheduled Outage
C 36 36 36 30 40
(d/year)
0 Forced Outage (Hours) 594(6.78%) 596(6.8%) 350 (4%) 438 (5%) 87.6(1%)
E Economic Life (years) 30 30 30 30 60
0 & M Cost
26.16 +
F Fixed ($/kW/year) 25.6 13.47 13.47 43
3 14.2*
Variable ($/MWh) 3.07 5.61 2.98 2.98 0
*314.2 is the Fixed Fuel Cost Component (FCC) of Engro Thar Coal.

The economic parameters of thermal candidate plants are highlighted in the Table 5-5.
Table 5-5: Economic Parameters of Generic Power Plants
Capital Cost with IDC Discount Rate Fuel Price

# Technology
($/kW) (%) ($IGiga Joule)
1 Nuclear (1,100 MW) 4,378 0.49
2 OCGT. (400 MW) 461 12.38
3 CCGT. (1,263 MW) 616 12.38
Imported Coal
4 1,661 2.92
(660 MW)
5 Thai Coal (660 MW) 1,374 1.67
6 RYK Imp. Coal (660 MW) 1,240 5.40
Hybrid Muzaffargarh
421 5.54
RLNG (933 MW)
10%
KAPCO Imported Coal

8 1,394 2.94
(660 MW)
Jamshoro Coal Unit 2

9 650 4.35
(660 MW)
10 C-5 Nuclear (1,221 MW) 4,036 0.49
11 Oracle (1,320 MW) 1,300
Battery Energy Storage

12 System 386 2.39
(100 MW! 100 MWh)
13 Bagasse (100 MW) 930 0.49
All candidate thermal technologies are assessed and ranked in terms of annualized unit cost
by using screening curve analysis. Screening curves are used to determine the best possible
technology to be inducted at a particular time frame from the available supply options. Two
types of screening curves are given below:
a. Annualized Cost ($/kW/yr) - Screening Curve (Annexure B-4.1)

b. Unit Generation Cost (cents/kWh) - Screening Curve (Annexure B-4.2)
Although the mechanism of plant selection by the tool is done through complex computations
and optimization techniques, however, these curves give the generic idea / trend about the
selection I viability of different candidate thermal power plants at various plant factors.
These curves are the plots of unit generation cost on the y-axis and the plant capacity factors
on the x-axis. The total cost includes the annual capital recovery factor, fuel cost and annual

O&M cost. The plants are ranked for each range of operating factors i.e. base load,
intermediate and peak load operation. The plant ranked lowest is introduced / selected first
and remaining plants follow based on increasing order of merit I rank as per the system's
requirement.
5.12. Economic Parameters of the Candidate REs
Other viable RE generation options include Solar, Wind, Battery Energy Storage System
(BESS), hybrid and bagasse-based projects. In this perspective, it is important to highlight that
pursuant to Assumption Set approved by CCoE, hybrid technologies are also to be modelled
as candidate along with solar and wind, subject to data provision by the relevant agencies. In
this regard, in response to NTDC's request to relevant agencies, AEDB has recently launched
a technical & financial feasibility study for this purpose. Based on the output of the study,
hybrid RE technologies will be considered for the next iteration of the IGCEP.
Consequently, due to non avilaibility of data (cost, hourly profile, etc.), hybrid technologies are
not modelled in the current iteration of the IGCEF. It is to add here that apart from BESS, for
all other technologies yearly block wise allocation have been made. Table 5-6 shows the
economic parameters of the candidate wind and solar projects.
Table 5-6: Economic Parameters of Candidate Wind and Solar Blocks
Installed Earliest Installed Annual Plant Annualized Cost of

FO&M
Capacity Availability Cost Energy Factor Energy
# Technology
(MW) (Year) ($/kW/Yr) ($/KW) (GWh) (%) (c/kWh) ($IkWIYr)
1 Solar 50 2024 8.18 531 100.74 23% 3.31 66.68
2 Wind 50 2024 19.48 955 186.15 43% 3.35 124.69

uo!suedx]
IficliflO
09
AGU[1IS dJJDi IHI
6. The IGCEP Study Output
6.1. Introduction
eased on the input data and assumptions, the model was developed and simulated using the
PLEXOS tool. The results obtained through optimization, based on least cost criteria and given
existing system constraints are discussed in this section.
6.2. Future Demand and Capacity Additions
Chart 6-1 depicts the relationship between the projected peak demand of the system and the
future installed capacity of the system, in terms of different types of energy sources for the
period 2021 — 2030. It is evident that the trend of the demand is similar to the capacity additions
as both are increasing in the positive direction and there is gradual increment during the
horizon of this plan. In the year 2021, the Installed capacity from all generation sources is
around 34,776 MW whereas the demand is equivalent to 23,792 MW. From the year 2021,
gap between the demand and installed capacity is steadily widening. Let us take the snapshot
of two random years i.e. 2025 and 2030 to closely assess the demand and capacity situation.
In the year 2025, the projected peak load stands at 29,389 MW, whereas cumulative installed
capacity of the system turns out to be 48,521 MW, including 21,048 MW from REs; similarly,
in the year 2030, to meet a demand of 37,129 MW an installed capacity of 61,112 MW is
envisaged including a capacity of 38,339 MW from RE sources. Chart 6-1 shows that sufficient
generation has been added to satisfy the specified reliability criteria and reserve requirements
of the system.
60,000
50,000
40,000
Eiin I1IIIII
30,000
20,000
10,000
P P P P 1,
Pt
1,
,,
1
Nuclear Hydro Cross Border Bagasse
Solar Wind Local Coal Imported Coal
Natural Gas R-LNG Furnace Oil Peak Load
Chart 6-1: Installed Capacity vs Peak Demand (MW) 2021-30
The IGCEP Study Output I 51

On the other hand, energy generation by the power plants has been optimized equally with
the energy forecast required by the year 2030 as shown in Chart 6-2. By the year 2030,
207,418 GWh of energy demand is met, in which 65% of generation is contributed by RE
sources comprising of 1%, 8%, 8% and 46% by bagasse, wind, solar and hydro respectively.
200,000
150,000
iiI!I-.
100,000
50,000
Nuclear
Solar
'$111 liii
Natural Gas
Hydro
Wind
R-LNG r
Cross Border
Local Coal
Furnaceil
Bagasse r-
Imported Coar
—EDemand
Chart 6-2: Annual Energy Generation vs Annual Energy Demand (GWh) 2021-30
The PLEXOS model optimizes wind and solar from the year 2024 in view of the techno
economic viability of the technology. It is worth mentioning here that the tool optimizes 10,062
MW of candidate solar & wind power projects till 2030 and does not select any other candidate
technology. Table 6-1 shows the technology wise yearly future candidate generation capacity
additions by the year 2030.
Chart 6-1 shows that the capacity selected by PLEXOS after satisfying reliability criteria i.e.
LOLP and reserves is sufficient enough to balance power (MW) as well as energy (GWh)
demand of NTDC system by the year 2030. Energy generation by different sources I fuel types
is shown in Chart 6-2. It is to be noted that although the system does have Furnace Oil (FO)
based capacity available but its share in despatch from the year 2021 declines drastically,
being low in merit order it is being replaced by the cheaper fuels.
Chart 6-3 shows the total share of the existing (excluding retirements), committed and
candidate power plants in the installed capacity as of the year 2030. It can be seen that apart
from existing installed capacity, major share is of committed power plants.

Candidate, 10,062, 16%
Committed,
22,415 , 37% Exisiting, 28,635,
47%
Chart 6-3: % wise Share of Total Installed capacity (MW) - 2030
The IGCEP Study Output 53 I

Table 6-1: Candidate Generation Capacity Additions (2021-30)
Coal Coal
Fired Fired Combined Combustion Per Year Cumulative
Steam Cycle on Turbine on Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Bagasse BESS Capacity Capacity
Fiscal
Imported Local RLNG RLNG Addition Addition
Year
Coat Coal
MW
2021
2022
2023
2024 - - 1,000 1,000 - 2,000 2,000
2025 - - - - 1,000 1,000 - 2,000 4,000
2026 - - - 1,000 1,000 2,000 6,000
2027 - - - 1,000 62 - 1,062 7,062
2028 - - - 1,000 - - 1,000 8,062
2029 - - - - 1,000 - 1,000 9,062
2030 - - 1,000 - 1,000 10,062
Total 7,000 3,062 - 10,062
54I Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Wind-I
510
Meridian
50
HNDS Legend
50 st ng
Helios Hyd
so Opt. Wind-I Soiar
Zhenfa Siachen 1000 nd
100 100 Opt. Solar-i Bagasse
Hydro-1 Zorlu 1000 Loc& Coal

140.4 100 Nuclear
K-3 A_Solar Bagasse-1 Imported Coal
1145 12 490 Opt. Wind-Il Opt. Solar-V OCGT
Thar Nova A_Electric Western 1000 1000 CCGT

330 11 50 Opt. Solar-li Opt.Wlnd-llI Opt.Wlnd-IV
Bar to differentate Committed
Thar-i Karot Atlantic 1000 1000 62 Balakot
from Candidate Projects
1320 720 48.3 Opt. Solar-Ill Opt.Soiar-$V 300 Opt.Soiar-Vi
Thar TEL 1YRN Manjhand Dasu_1-1 1000 1000 Madyan 1000

330 660 50 1080 157
Existing Lucky Gwadar Safe Kathai-ll Dasu_1-il Harpo Kalani Kohala

System as 660 10 8 1080 34.5 88 1124 Opt.Soiar-vIi
of Sep 2021 Trimmu Siddiqsons Hydro-il CASA Mohmand Khwar Azad Pattan Basha 1000
1263.2 330 2585 1000 800 128 700.7 4500
Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Commited MW 0 5,949 2,233 3,233 2,088 1,880 163 1,246 5,624 0 22,415
Candidate MW 0 2,QQQ 1O62 I Q0 I P.Q 10,062
Total MW 949w 233 1408 3880 :2 246 6,624 1,000 32,477
Figure 6-1: IGCEP 2021-30: Generation Sequence (2021-30)

Due to limited space, several committed RE projects (Hydro, Wind & Bagasse) getting
commissioned in the same year are combined together in the form of blocks for the purpose
of reporting in Figure 6-1. The detail of these blocks, as modelled in PLEXOS, is provided in
Table 6-2.
Table-6-2: Break-up of Blocks for Hydro, Solar, Wind and Bagasse Power Plants
Installed
Sr.No. Year Block Capacity
Name of Project
MW
Ranolia 17
Jabori 10
Koto 41
Chianwali HPP 5
Hyd ro-I
Karora 12
Chamfall 3
Jagran-Il 48
Deg Outfall 4
Act_2 50
2022
Artistic Wind 2 50
Din 50
GuI Electric 50
Indus_Energy 50
Wind-I
Lakeside 50
Liberty_Wind_i 50
Liberty_Wind_2 50
Metro Wind 60
NASDA 50
Total (2022) 650
Gorkin Matiltan 84
20 Suki Kinari 884.0
21 Riali-Il 7
Hydro-Il
22 2024 Chapari Charkhel 11
23 Lawi 69
24 TarbelaExt5 1,530
20 Bagasse-I Alliance 30.0

Installed
Capacity
Sr.No. Year Block Name of Project
MW
Bahawalpur 31.2
21 Faran 26.5
22 Hamza-I I 30
23 HSM 26.5
24 H unza 49.8
25 Indus 31
26 lttefaq 31.2
27 Kashmir 40
28 Mehran 26.5
29 RYK_Energy 25
30 Shahtaj 32
31 Sheikhoo 30
32 Tay 30
33 Two_Star 50
Total (2024) 3,074

PLEXOS final output comprising year-wise addition of all committed and candidate power plants is given
below in Table 6-3.
Table 6-3: PLEXOS Annual Addition of Power Plants 2021-30
Installed Nominal Schedule of

# Name of Project Fuel Type . Agency Status
Capacity Capacity Commissioning
2022
1 Act_2 Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
2 Artistic Wind 2 Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
3 Chianwali HPP Hydro 5.38 5.38 PPDB Committed Dec-21
4 Din Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
5 GuI Electric Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
6 lndus_Energy Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
7 Jabori Hydro 10.2 10.2 PEDO Committed Dec-21
8 Koto Hydro 40.8 40.8 PEDO Committed Dec-21
9 Lakeside Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
10 Liberty_Wind_i Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
11 Liberty_Wind_2 Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
12 Metro_Wind Wind 60 60 AEDB Committed Dec-21
13 NASDA Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-21
14 Ranolia Hydro 17 17 PEDO Committed Dec-21
15 Zhenfa Solar 100 100 AEDB Committed Dec-21
16 Lucky Local Coal 660 607 PPIB Committed Jan-22
17 Helios Solar 50 50 AEDB Committed Mar-22
18 HNDS Solar 50 50 AEDB Committed Mar-22
19 Karora Hydro 11.8 11.8 PEDO Committed Mar-22
20 Meridian Solar 50 50 AEDB Committed Mar-22
21 Thar TEL Local Coal 330 300 PPIB Committed Mar-22
22 Chamfall Hydro 3 3 AJK Committed Mar-22
23 K-3 Nuclear 1,145 1,059 PAEC Committed Apr-22

# Name of Project Fuel Type Agency Status
24 Trimmu RLNG 1263 1243 PPIB Committed Apr-22
25 Jagran-H Hydro 48 48 AJK Committed May-22
26 Thar-I (SSRL) Local Coal 1,320 1,214 PPIB Committed May-22
27 Deg Outfall Hydro 4 4 PPDB Committed Jun-22
28 ThaI Nova Local Coal 330 300 PPIB Committed Jun-22
Generation Additions in 2022 (MW) 5,948 5,623
Cumulative Addition uptill 2022 (MW) 5,948 5,623
2023
1 Access_Electric Solar 11 11 AEDB Committed Aug-22
2 Access_Solar Solar 12 12 AEDB Committed Aug-22
3 Jamshoro Coal (Unit-I) Imported Coal 660 629 GENCO Committed Oct-22
4 Gwadar Imported Coal 300 273 PPIB Committed Jun-23
5 Karot Hydro 720 720 PPIB Committed Jun-23
6 Siachen Solar 100 100 AEDB Committed Jun-23
7 Zorlu Solar 100 100 PPDB Committed Jun-23
8 Siddiqsons Local Coal 330 304 PPIB Committed Jun-23
Cumulative Addition up till 2023 (MW) 8,181 7,772
2024
1 Gorkin Matiltan Hydro 84 84 PEDO Committed Jul-23
2 Riali-ll Hydro 7 7 PPIB Committed Jul-23
3 Suki Kinari Hydro 884 884 PPIB Committed Jul-23
4 Manjhand Solar 50 50 GOS Committed Sep-23
5 Safe Solar 10 10 AEDB Committed Sep-23
6 Western Wind 50 50 AEDB Committed Nov-23
7 Alliance Bagasse 30 30 AEDB Committed Dec-23
The IGCEP Study Output 59I

# Name of Project Fuel Type . . Agency Status
8 Bahawalpur Bagasse 31.2 31.2 AEDB Committed Dec-23
9 Faran Bagasse 27 27 AEDB Committed Dec-23
10 Hamza-ll Bagasse 30 30 AEDB Committed Dec-23
11 HSM Bagasse 26.5 26.5 AEDB Committed Dec-23
12 Hunza Bagasse 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-23
13 Indus Bagasse 31 31 AEDB Committed Dec-23
14 lttefaq Bagasse 31 31 AEDB Committed Dec-23
15 Kashmir Bagasse 40 40 AEDB Committed Dec-23
16 Mehran Bagasse 27 27 AEDB Committed Dec-23
17 RYK_Energy Bagasse 25 25 AEDB Committed Dec-23
18 Shahtaj Bagasse 32 32 AEDB Committed Dec-23
19 Sheikhoo Bagasse 30 30 AEDB Committed Dec-23
20 TAY Bagasse 30 30 AEDB Committed Dec-23
21 Trans Atlantic Wind 48 48 AEDB Committed Dec-23
22 Two_Star Bagasse 50 50 AEDB Committed Dec-23
23 Chapari Charkhel Hydro 10.56 10.56 PEDO Committed Mar-24
24 Lawi Hydro 69 69 PEDO Committed Apr-24
25 Tarbela_Ext_5 Hydro 1530 1530 WAPDA Committed May-24
Tobe
26 Candidate Solar Solar 1000 1000 Optimized 2024
Decided
27 Candidate_Wind Wind 1000 1000 Optimized 2024

Decided
2025
Cross Border
1 CASA 1,000 1,000 GOP Committed Aug-24
Interconnection
2 Kathal-lI Hydro 8 8 PPIB Committed Dec-24
3 Dasu_1 Unit 1-3 Hydro 1,080 1,080 WAPDA Committed Apr-25

To be
4 Candidate_Solar Solar 1000 1000 Optimized 2025
Decided
To be
Decided
2026
1 Mohmand Hydro 800 800 WAPDA Committed Apr-26
2 Dasu_1 Unit4-6 Hydro 1,080 1,080 WAPDA Committed Nov-25
To be
Decided
To be
Decided
2027
1 Keyal Khwar Hydro 128 128 WAPDA Committed Feb-27
2 Harpo Hydro 34.5 34.5 WAPDA Committed Apr-27
To be
Decided
To be
Decided
Generation Additions in 2027 (MW) 1224.5 1224.5
2028
1 Azad Pattan Hydro 700.7 700.7 PPIB Committed Sep-27
2 Gabral Kalam Hydro 88 88 PEDO Committed Oct-27
3 Madyan Hydro 157 157 PEDO Committed Oct-27
4 Balakot Hydro 300 300 PEDO Committed Nov-27
To be
Decided

2029
1 Kohata Hydro 1,124 1,124 PPIB Committed Dec-28
2 Diamer Bhasha Hydra 4,500 4,500 WAPDA Committed Feb-29
Ta be
Decided
2030
To be
Decided

6.3. Annual Capacity Factors
The annual capacity factors information based on the Installed Capacity for the corresponding year, as
shown in the Table 6-4 is one of the most important output of the PLEXOS tool. The drastic change in
capacity factor of some plants between the years 2021 to 2030 is due to certain rationale. For example,
up to January 2022, the power purchaser is obligated to utilize / despatch 66% of the three (03) RLNG
based power plants i.e. Haveli Bahadur Shah, Balloki and Bhikki, under contractual binding. Beyond
January 2022, these RLNG based plants will be despatched as per merit order. Similarly, for the existing
imported coal-based power plants (Sahiwal CFPP, China HUBCO CFPP and Port Qasim CFPP) as well
as three (03) existing local gas based power plants (Engro, Foundation & Uch-Il), a minimum annual
despatch of 50% is modelled as per contractual obligation, from the date of their respective CODs till the
expiry of their PPAs.
Table 6-4: Annual Capacity Factors (%age)
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
# Plant Name Fuel
(%)
1 Engro Gas 81.26 79.37 50.60 50.47 50.59 50.58 50.59 50.46 50.60 50.59
2 Foundation Gas 78.04 77.86 76.59 73.02 62.64 50.47 50.47 50.35 50.48 50.47
3 Guddu-1 Gas 0.00 0.00 2.80 16.39 6.32 4.05 1.74 6.35 11.44 0.00
4 Guddu-Il Gas 60.17 55.68 41.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 Guddu-V (747) Gas 72.93 72.79 49.39 50.81 49.45 11.67 12.09 17.70 19.32 5.47
7 Liberty Gas 69.99 63.16 40.36 38.11 39.01 38.11 37.63 0.00 0.00 0.00
8 Uch Gas 78.29 75.19 41.66 36.33 35.92 33.88 33.88 33.89 36.67 33.89
9 Uch-lI Gas 81.80 81.39 80.26 77.49 77.10 49.62 49.63 49.47 49.67 49.67
10 KAPCO 1 RFO 14.68 16.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11 KAPCO 2 RFO 3.11 4.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12 KAPCO 3 RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13 Balloki RLNG 65.72 42.45 3.56 1.19 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.39 1.32 0.00
14 Bhikki RLNG 65.70 26.22 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00
15 FKPCL RLNG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16 GTPS Block 4 RLNG 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17 Halmore RLNG 24.06 11.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18 Haveli RLNG 65.69 53.48 12.35 6.77 1.05 0.53 1.06 2.04 2.78 0.00
19 Nandipur RLNG 15.21 4.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
20 Orient RLNG 31.94 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21 Rousch RLNG 9.27 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
22 Saif RLNG 24.47 13.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
23 Saphire RLNG 26.11 16.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24 Trimmu RLNG 0.00 92.54 78.28 64.11 25.94 14.26 15.41 18.06 19.45 6.20
25 AGL RFO 7.61 10.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
26 Atlas RFO 0.12 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Plant Name Fuel
(%)
27 HuBN RFO 0.00 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
28 Kohinoor RFO 0.12 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
29 Liberty Tech RFO 0.87 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
30 NishatC RFO 1.45 1.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
31 Nishat P RFO 6.11 9.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
32 Davis RLNG 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
33 Altern Gas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
34 China HUBCO lmp.Coal 80.18 80.12 79.92 79.40 78.71 59.38 68.32 77.64 52.15 50.25
35 Gwadar lmp.Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 77.17 76.99 75.73 76.41 76.87 76.74 13.04
36 Jamshoro Coal lmp.Coal 0.00 0.00 72.00 74.42 74.05 71.99 72.40 74.39 69.97 11.42
37 Port Qasim lmp.Coal 79.19 79.15 50.35 50.26 50.33 50.33 50.33 50.21 50.32 50.29
38 Sahiwal Coal lmp.Coal 75.22 62.18 50.41 50.25 50.35 50.35 50.35 50.17 50.35 50.32
39 Engro Thai Local Coal 67.97 67.89 67.77 67.92 67.97 67.72 67.83 68.01 67.90 66.33
40 Lucky Local Coal 0.00 77.39 77.85 77.96 78.09 77.43 77.72 77.92 77.81 63.35
41 Siddiqsons Local Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 78.15 78.17 78.22 78.23 78.22 78.27 78.28
42 ThaI Nova Local Coal 0.00 0.00 76.93 77.08 77.12 76.92 77.18 77.19 77.24 75.91
43 Thai TEL Local Coal 0.00 81.00 76.93 77.08 77.12 77.13 77.19 77.19 77.24 75.76
44 Thar-1 (SSRL) Local Coal 0.00 84.21 77.87 78.04 78.03 78.08 78.09 78.09 78.14 77.84
45 C- i Nuclear 73.45 73.44 73.45 73.47 73.46 73.47 73.47 73.46 73.49 73.48
46 C -2 Nuclear 70.21 70.20 70.21 70.22 70.22 70.23 70.23 70.21 70.24 70.24
47 C-3 Nuclear 73.72 73.71 73.71 73.73 73.73 73.74 73.74 73.72 73.75 73.75
48 C-4 Nuclear 73.72 73.71 73.71 73.73 73.73 73.74 73.74 73.72 73.75 73.75
49 K-2 Nuclear 86.75 81.13 81.11 81.40 81.29 81.32 81.33 81.31 81.39 81.42
50 K-3 Nuclear 0.00 86.39 81.01 81.39 81.25 81.32 81.33 81.31 81.39 81.41
51 AES Pakgen RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
52 HUBCO RFO 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
53 Jamshoro-1 Ui RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
54 Jamshoro-ll U4 RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
55 Lalpir RFO 0.12 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Muzaffargarh-1 0.00
56 RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Muzaffargarh-1 0.00 0.00

RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
U2
Muzaffargarh-1 0.00 0.00
58 RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
U3
Muzaffargarh-ll 0.00 0.00 0.00
RFO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
U4
60 Saba RFO 0.04 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
61 Allai Khwar Hydro 43.46 43.46 43.60 43.58 43.63 43.63 43.60 43.54 43.63 43.63

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
# Plant Name Fuel
(%)
62 Chashma Hydro 46.62 46.62 46.62 46.63 46.62 46.62 46.62 46.63 46.62 46.62
63 Daral Khwar Hydro 46.38 46.56 46.18 46.59 46.69 46.87 46.82 46.85 46.84 46.95
64 Dubair Khwar Hydra 48.80 48.99 48.73 48.89 48.99 49.00 48.99 48.90 49.00 49.00
65 Ghazi Brotha Hydra 51.16 51.16 51.16 51.14 51.16 51.16 51.16 51.14 51.16 51.16
66 Golen Go! Hydra 10.58 10.58 10.58 10.56 10.58 10.58 10.58 10.56 10.58 10.58
67 Gulpur Hydra 53.27 53.47 53.60 53.46 53.31 53.54 53.65 53.73 53.75 53.75
68 Jagran-1 Hydra 48.85 48.74 48.28 48.74 48.85 48.85 48.85 48.74 48.85 48.85
69 Jhing Hydra 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.72 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.72 48.83 48.83
70 Jinnah Hydra 23.98 23.98 23.98 23.95 23.98 23.98 23.98 23.95 23.98 23.98
71 Khan Khwar Hydra 43.36 43.35 43.35 43.31 43.34 43.36 43.35 43.33 43.37 43.37
72 Malakand-lIl Hydra 51.30 51.23 50.91 51.21 51.30 51.30 51.30 51.21 51.30 51.30
73 Mangla Hydra 51.97 52.29 53.10 52.13 52.17 52.27 52.95 52.13 52.09 52.09
74 Marala Hydra 64.17 64.32 64.15 64.46 64.48 64.54 64.56 64.53 64.61 64.61
75 Neelum Jehlum Hydra 57.14 57.34 57.17 57.48 57.51 57.49 57.61 57.47 57.52 57.63
76 New Bong Hydra 63.68 63.62 63.75 63.88 63.91 63.91 63.91 63.88 63.91 63.91
77 Pak Pattan Hydra 64.21 64.33 64.22 64.45 64.47 64.53 64.54 64.51 64.61 64.58
78 Patrind Hydra 47.67 47.58 47.55 47.58 47.66 47.68 47.69 47.62 47.71 47.73
79 Small Hyde! Hydra 34.14 34.14 33.96 34.20 34.22 34.22 34.23 34.26 34.29 34.29
80 Tarbela 1-14 Hydra 48.10 48.13 48.10 48.07 48.13 48.13 48.13 48.07 48.13 48.12
81 TarbelaExt4 Hydra 30.35 30.35 30.36 30.31 30.36 30.36 30.36 30.31 30.36 30.36
82 Warsak Hydra 45.99 45.87 45.78 46.06 46.12 46.12 46.12 46.03 46.12 46.12
83 Azad Pattan Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 52.17 52.17 52.17
84 Balakot Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.09 38.13 38.09
85 Chamfall Hydra 0.00 48.79 48.79 48.68 48.79 48.79 48.79 48.68 48.79 48.79
86 Chapari Charkhe! Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.52 80.47 80.52 80.57 80.58 80.56 80.72
87 Chianwali Hydra 0.00 64.54 64.20 64.49 64.52 64.54 64.52 64.50 64.61 64.59
88 Dasul Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.13 54.48 60.13 60.04 60.14 60.19
89 Deg Outfall Hydra 0.00 64.48 64.19 64.48 64.48 64.54 64.52 64.50 64.61 64.61
90 Diamer Bhasha Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.23 44.23
91 Gabral Kalam Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.32 41.35 41.32
92 Gorkin Matiltan Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.73 44.73 44.68 44.52 44.37 44.73 44.65
93 Harpo Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.24 50.24 50.30 50.23
94 Jabori Hydra 0.00 76.80 76.76 77.15 77.12 77.13 77.14 77.17 77.18 77.22
95 Jagran-ll Hydra 0.00 48.84 48.84 48.73 48.84 48.84 48.84 48.73 48.84 48.84
96 Karora Hydra 0.00 64.68 64.22 64.62 64.58 64.62 64.68 64.67 64.67 64.79
97 Karat Hydra 0.00 0.00 48.44 48.37 48.43 48.44 48.44 48.38 48.43 48.44
The IGCEP Study Output 165

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
# Plant Name Fuel
(%)
98 Kathai-ll Hydro 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.38 60.47 60.44 60.38 60.51 60.50
99 Keyal Khwar Hydro 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.28 29.28 29.36 29.35
100 Kohala Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.39 63.39
101 Koto Hydro 0.00 57.40 56.53 57.45 57.53 57.40 57.37 57.28 57.30 57.54
102 Lawi Hydro 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.08 48.08 48.08 48.08 47.99 48.08 48.05
103 Madyan Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 52.66 52.66 52.66
104 Mahmand Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.94 43.01 42.94 43.01 43.01
105 Ranolia Hydra 0.00 61.89 61.69 61.78 61.88 61.89 61.86 61.79 61.94 61.94
106 Riali-lI Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.44 55.54 55.55 55.54 55.44 55.57 55.57
107 Suki Kinari Hydra 0.00 0.00 40.38 40.30 40.38 40.38 40.38 40.30 40.38 40.38
108 TarbelaExt5 Hydra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.05 10.05 10.05 10.02 10.05 10.05
Crass
109 CASA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.52 39.25 39.26 39.12 39.27 39.22
Border
110 Act Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
ill Act_2 Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
112 Artistic_wind Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
113 Artistic Wind_2 Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
114 Dawood Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
115 Din Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
116 FF0 Wind 33.50 33.50 33.50 33.46 33.50 33.50 33.50 33.46 33.50 33.50
117 FWEL-I Wind 33.50 33.50 33.50 33.46 33.50 33.50 33.50 33.46 33.50 33.50
118 FWEL-lI Wind 33.50 33.50 33.50 33.46 33.50 33.50 33.50 33.46 33.50 33.50
119 GulAhmed Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
120 GuI_Electric Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
121 Hawa Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
122 Indus_Energy Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
123 Jhimpir Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
124 Lakeside Wind 0.00 39.00 39.00 38.92 39.00 39.00 39.00 38.92 39.00 39.00
125 Liberty_Wind_i Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
126 Liberty_Wind_2 Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
127 Master Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
128 Master_Green Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
129 Metro_Power Wind 32.00 32.00 32.00 31.95 32.00 32.00 32.00 31.95 32.00 32.00
130 Metro Wind Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
131 NASDA Wind 0.00 38.92 39.00 38.92 39.00 39.00 39.00 38.92 39.00 39.00
132 New_Wind Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.79 41.88 41.88 41.88 41.79 41.88 41.88
133 Sachal Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
# Plant Name Fuel
(%)
134 Sapphire Wind Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
135 Tenaga Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
136 Three_Gorges_I Wind 32.00 32.00 32.00 31.95 32.00 32.00 32.00 31.95 32.00 32.00
137 Three_Gorges_Il Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
138 Three_Gorges_Ill Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
139 Trans Atlantic Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.88 41.88 41.88 41.88 41.79 41.88 41.88
140 Tricom Wind 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
141 TriconA Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
142 Tricon_B Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
143 Tricon_C Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
144 UEF Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
145 Western Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.47 38.55 38.55
146 Yunus Wind 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41 31.41 31.35 31.41 31.41
147 Zephyr Wind 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24 35.24 35.20 35.24 35.24
148 Zorlu Wind Wind 32.00 32.00 32.00 31.95 32.00 32.00 32.00 31.95 32.00 32.00
149 Access_Electric Solar 0.00 0.00 19.75 19.70 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.70 19.75 19.75
150 Access_Solar Solar 0.00 0.00 19.75 19.70 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.70 19.75 19.75
151 Appolo Solar 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50
152 Best Solar 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50
153 Crest Solar 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50
154 Helios Solar 0.00 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27
155 HNDS Solar 0.00 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27
156 Manjhand Solar 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.13 23.27 23,27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27
157 Meridian Solar 0.00 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27
158 New_Solar Solar 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.21 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27
159 QASolar Solar 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.45 17.50 17.50
160 Safe Solar 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.87 22.00 22.00 22.00 21.94 22.00 22.00
161 Siachen Solar 0.00 0.00 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.21 23.27 23.27
162 Zhenfa Solar 0.00 22.12 22.00 21.94 22.00 22.00 22.00 21.94 22.00 22.00
163 Zorlu Solar 0.00 0.00 19.75 19.70 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.70 19.75 19.75
164 Alliance Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
165 Almoiz Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
166 Bahawalpur Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
167 Chanar Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
168 Chiniot Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
169 Faran Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Plant Name Fuel
10/
/0
170 Hamza Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
171 Hamza-ll Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
172 HSM Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
173 Hunza Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
174 Indus Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
175 lttefaq Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
176 JDW-ll Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
177 JDW-Il$ Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
178 Kashmir Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
179 Mehran Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
180 RYK_Energy Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
181 Ryk_Mills Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
182 Shahtaj Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
183 Sheikhoo Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
184 TAY Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
185 Thal_Layyah Bagasse 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.77 45.62 45.62
186 Two Star Bagasse 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.68 54.81 54.68 54.68
(All numbers in red color, in this table, represent retirement of the corresponding plant.)
6811nd1cative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

6.4. Year-wise Discounted and Un-Discounted Cost
The year wise cost breakup is shown in Table 6-5 and 6-6.
Table 6-5: Year wise Discounted Cost
Present Worth Cost for Each Year of the Plan Horizon
Annualized Objective
FO&M Generation
Year Construction Total Cost Function
Cost Cost
Cost (Cumulative)
(k$)
2021 - 1,719,673 4,762,535 6,482,208 6,482,208
2022 - 1,795,475 4,098,146 5,893,620 12,375,828
2023 2,002,553 2,553,122 4,555,675 16,931,503
2024 116,128 1,891,232 2,273,541 4,280,901 21,212,404
2025 209,034 1,753,384 1,820,069 3,782,487 24,994,891
2026 282,379 1,630,282 1,435,285 3,347,946 28,342,837
2027 286,638 1,482,832 1,327,244 3,096,713 31,439,551
2028 283,815 1,352,689 1,260,264 2,896,768 34,336,319
2029 278,366 1,251,811 1,111,128 2,641,305 36,977,624
2030 270,908 1,167,534 830,136 2,268,578 39,246,201
Table 6-6: Year wise Un-Discounted Cost
Un-Discounted Cost for Each Year of the Plan Horizon
Generation
Year Construction FO&M Cost Total Cost Function
Cost
Cost (Cumulative)
2021 1,719,673 4,762,535 6,482,208 6,482,208
2022 - 1,975,022 4,507,960 6,482,982 12,965,190
2023 2,423,090 3,089,278 5,512,367 18,477,557
2024 154,566 2,517,230 3,026,084 5,697,879 24,175,436
2025 306,047 2,567,130 2,664,762 5,537,940 29,713,376

Un-Discounted Cost for Each Year of the Plan Horizon
Generation
Year Construction FO&M Cost Total Cost Function
Cost
Cost (Cumulative)
(k$)
2026 454,774 2,625,586 2,311,541 5,391,901 35,105,276
2027 507,796 2,626,927 2,351,293 5,486,017 40,591,293
2028 553,075 2,636,009 2,455,898 5,644,982 46,236,275
2029 596,702 2,683,368 2,381,802 5,661,871 51,898,146
2030 638,786 2,752,985 1,957,416 5,349,187 57,247,333
6.5. Indigenization of Energy Mix
World Energy Council defines energy security as the management of primary energy supply
from domestic/indigenous and external sources, reliability of energy infrastructure, ability to
meet current and future demand. Energy security reflects a nation's capacity to meet current
and future demand reliably and bounce back swiftly from system shocks with minimal
disruption to supplies. Pakistan ranks #99 among 110 countries in terms of energy security by
the World Energy Council for the year 2020.
Pakistan imports nearly one third of its energy resources in the form of oil, coal, and RLNG,
and currently 47% of existing installed capacity relies on imported fuel for energy generation.
Pakistan remains an energy insecure country in context of the on-going economic situation of
Pakistan. Large reliance on imported fuel for firm supply of energy not only increases the
import bill of the country, but also put Pakistan susceptible to ever changing global and geo
politics.
The IGCEP 2021-30 deals with long-term energy security with timely investments to supply
energy in line with economic developments and environmental needs. According to IGCEP
2021-30 simulation results, indigenization ratio, which is ratio of electrical energy generated
by indigenize generation resources to the electrical energy generated by all generation
resources, has been computed as shown in Chart 6-4, the IGCEP aims to achieve by the year
2030 pertaining to electric power generation. In 2020-21, the indigenization ratio of energy is
60% that increases with a steep slope to 75.9% by the year 2023 due to inclusion of local coal,
hydro, wind and solar based power plants. Subsequently, the indigenization ratio turns out to
be around 90.8% until 2030. This remains an invaluable aspect for Pakistan power sector on
the part of IGCEP 2021-30.

240,000 90.8% 100.0%
86.7% I
84.9% 84.8% 84.6% 90.0%
82.0%
200,000
75.9°A)
78.0%
80.0%
I
68.4%
70.0%
160,000
60.0%
60.0%
I
120,000 50.0%
-c
I 40.0%
80,000
30.0%
20.0%
40,000
10.0%
0 III 0.0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Hydro Renewables Natural Gas
Furnance Oil Local Coal Imported Coal
R-LNG Nuclear =='='Self Sufficient Ratio
Chart 6-4: IGCEP 2021-30 Indigenization Ratio of Primary Energy
6.6. Clean and Green Power for Pakistan
Pakistan, like other South Asian countries, grapples with the challenges of a large and growing
population, combined with rapidly growing energy needs. Heavily dependent on fossil-fuel
imports, the country finds itself vulnerable to global oil price volatility and effects of increased
carbon footprint due to power generation by fossil-fuel based technologies.
Pakistan has abundant renewable energy resources that can be utilized for power generation.
Hydropower, with its potential in the northern part of the country, has traditionally been the
most prominent source of renewable energy in Pakistan. In addition to hydropower potential,
Pakistan is blessed with huge variable renewable resources, however, its harnessing, in true
sense, is yet to be materialized.
Pakistan ranks #26 globally, #10 in Asia, #2 among SAARC member states in carbon
emissions index, with 249 MtCO2 territorial emissions, all GHG emissions from a country's
territory, apart from those associated with international aviation and shipping, in 2019
according to the Global Carbon Atlas.
The IGCEP 2021-30 addresses the pursuit of low-carbon energy alternatives for electric power
generation, to sustain the relatively low carbon emissions levels, to bolster energy security
and to spur sustainable economic growth in the country. Based on the IGCEP output, carbon
emissions have been calculated for existing and upcoming power generation which is shown
in Chart 6-4. Carbon emissions in the country by power generation accounts for 0.356 kg-
0O2/kWh in year 2021 and this indicator reduces to 0.198 kg-0O2 /kWh by year 2030 which is
even less than current average of the OECD countries.

Annual CO7 Emission (Million ton/year) and
Unit Emission ( kg-007/kWh))
60.0 1.000
0.900
50.0
0.800
40.0 0.700
0.600
30.0 0.500
0.400
20.0
0.300
10.0 0.200
0.100
0.0 0.000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
OT CO2 Emission (miflion ton) I;:=kgCO2/kWh
Chart 6-5: IGCEP 2021-30 Annual 002 Emission and Emission per Unit of Generation
6.7. Salient Features of the IGCEP
In order to balance a projected peak load of 37,129 MW by the year 2030, the PLEXOS model
proposes 61,112 MW of installed generation capacity; salient features of the study are as
follows:
. Significant Induction of REs (clean and indigenous)
b. Tapping of indigenous coal-based power
c. Balancing the overall basket price with increased share of hydra power
d. Optimal indigenization: less reliance on imported fuel i.e. coal, RFO, RLNG etc.
e. Substantial reduction in carbon emission owing to induction of REs and hydra
Meanwhile, by the year 2030, a capacity of 6,447 MW is meant to be retired. In order to provide
a quick understanding of the generation mix of the IGCEP 2021-30, the report includes the
Table 6-7 which highlights addition of different types of generation capacities. Moreover, fuel-
wise capacity in megawatts, energy in GWh and their monthly share in the total generated
energy respectively, over the period of this plan, are further illustrated by the Chart 6-5 through
6-7, Chart 6-8 through 6-10 and Chart 6-1 1 through 6-13 respectively.

Table 6-7: Year wise Installed Capacity Addition (MW)
Net Capacity Addition Over the Plan Period (2021-30)
C)
>
Local Imported Natural Furnace Cross Yearly .
Year Hydro RLNG Nuclear RE
Gas Oil Border Addition
Coal Coal E '-
0
(MW)
2021 660 9,698 5,839 2,490 3,960 1,995 3,427 6,506 0 34,575 -
2022 2,310 210 1,119 1,145 0 760 0 0 0 5,544 40,119
2023 330 1,674 0 0 660 222 -620 -3,000 0 -734 39,385
2024 330 1,701 0 0 300 2,648 0 0 0 4,978 44,363
2025 0 1,158 0 0 0 2,000 0 0 1,000 4,158 48,521
2026 0 1,950 0 0 0 2,000 0 0 0 3,950 52,471
2027 0 393 0 0 0 1,061 -225 -1,423 0 -194 52,277
2028 0 1,246 0 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 2,246 54,523
2029 0 5,624 0 0 0 1,000 0 -727 0 5,897 60,420
2030 0 0 -172 0 0 1,000 0 -136 0 692 61,112
Total 3,630 23,653 6,786 3,635 4,920 13,685 2,582 1,220 1,000 61,112

Imported Coal,
3,960,11%
RFO 6 506 19%
Local Coal, 660,
2%
Wind, 1,335,4%
5,839, 17%
Cross Border, - ,
Gas, 3,427, 10%
HPP, 9,698, 28%
Nuclear, 2,490, 7%
Solar, 400, 1% Baggase, 259,1%
Chart 6-6: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2021 (MW)
Imported Coal,
RFO, 3,506, 7% 4,920, 10%
Wind, 3,944, 8% - /
Local Coal, 3,630,
7%
Cross Border, --------

1,000, 2%
RLNG, 6,958, 14%
HPP, 14,441,30%
- Gas, 2,807, 6%
\ Nuclear, 3,635, 8%
Solar, 2,932,6%]
Baggase, 749, 2%

2030
Wind, 5,005, 8%_ RFO, 1,220,2%

I
morted Coal, 4,920, 8%
Cross Border, —
1,000,2% 1 Local Coal, 3,630,
6,786,11%
as, 2,582,4%
HPP, 23,653,39%
Nuclear, 3,635, 6%
Baggase, 749, 1%
Solar, 7,932, 13%
2021
_I
Wind, 3,585, 3%
RFO; 1,027, 1%
Cross Border, -
0%
Imported Coal,
21%
Local Coal, 3,930,
Solar, 613,
RING, 24,088,
Baggase, 1,035, 1%/
18%
Nuclear, 10,743, 8%
Gas, 19,122, 15%
Chart 6-9: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2021 (GWh)
The IGCEP Study Output 75 I

2025
Wind, 13,331, 8%
RFO, - ,0%
Cross Border, Imported Coal,

3,168,2% 27,048, 16%
Local Coal, 24,185

r
HPP, 51,098, 31%
-RLNG, 2,994,2%
Solar, 5,724, 3% -
Gas, 10,744, 6%
Baggase, 3,380, 2% Nuclear, 24,877
Chart 6-10: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2025 (GWh)
2030
Wind, 17,225, 8% RFO, -

Imported Coal, 18,448, 9%
Cross Border,
3,436, 2%
Local Coal, 23,145, 11%
RING, 686, 0%
V
NGas, 5,623,3%
V
12%
HPP, 94,649,46%
Solar, 15,916,8%
Chart 6-1 1: The IGCEP Generation Mix 2030 (GWh)

20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
>0 >0 -> — baD. >0 C - >-C >0 CC '- >C
>0 -. '- )- j (V 0. >— bO
I-I-
—, ai Oa)o 0U ai Oa) a) OGJ (
2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
Nuclear Hydro Baggase Solir i Wind Local Coal Imported Coal Natural Gas I RLNG ET1 () — Derii
Chart 6-12 The IGCEP Monthly Generation Mix 2021-25 (GWh)

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 O b0 > U U >. C — bO a > U C .0 >. C - oo a > U .0 - - >- c
0) 0 G)) cc a. G) oWccwccacc
: - -- <OZ LL lOZ LL <v
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-2030
Nuclear Hydro Baggase SoLar Wind Local Coal Imported Coal NaturalGas R-LNG F0 —0—Demand
Chart 6-13: The IGCEP Monthly Generation Mix 2026-30 (GWh)
I
6.8. Strategy for Feedback
There is no room bigger than the room for improvement. The IGCEP has been prepared after
taking inputs from all the relevant agencies; the LF&GP-PSP Team is more than willing to
discuss and incorporate further suggestions from the stakeholders to shape it into a
meaningful output. As per PO4 of the Grid Code, NEPRA will review and approve the IGCEP.
All kind of suggestions, comments and concerns are most welcome at ce.gIfpntdc.com.pk;
+92-42-99200695. For wider dissemination and seeking generous feedback, the IGCEP 2021-
30 would be published on the NTDC website.

G1IVMUOi AVM IHI °L
I!7. The Way Forward
A few suggestions are offered in this section to further enhance the contents and quality of the
future editions of the IGCEP as well as the planning process on the whole.
7.1 Must Do Actions for the Future Generation Plans
a. Demand Side Management (DSM) options other than energy efficiency targets, provided
by NEECAforthe IGCEP 2021-30, should also be studied and incorporated in the next
iterations of the IGCEP by coordinating and working closely with all relevant entities in
the country.
b. Power generation policies should be regularly reviewed and updated to align the policy
instruments with the latest trends in generation technologies and other factors that can
influence both the demand and supply side of the electricity business.
c. Planning process should be more comprehensive, both in scope and depth. Instead of
yearly updating, the IGCEP should be revised every three (03) years. It will reduce
unpredictability and will also minimize risks for the potential investors. Appropriate
modification to this effect should be made in the Grid Code.
d Access to relevant and quality data must be facilitated. A central data repository may be
formed to facilitate planners and policy makers, having specific data privileges and to
ensure access to quality data, for data modeling and decision making. In a similar vein,
project execution entities should enhance and accelerate their response, with respect to
provision of project data to NTDC, for updating of the IGCEP, in a precise and timely
manner.
e. Keeping in view the latest technological changes and latest advancements in the power
supply and delivery business, customized trainings should be provided, especially for
the power system planners, system operators, and DISCO staff.
7.2 Making Way for the High Share of Renewables in the Grid
In order to ensure indigenization of energy mix with higher share of clean energy, future plans
are required to be aligned with international best practices pertaining to renewable enrgy.
7.2.1 Hybridization of Variable Renewable Energy Projects
a. Though not envisaged in the prevailing schemes, wind power projects can provide grid
support such as frequency regulation, voltage regulation, and reserve power provided
hybridization is opted with solar PV as well as battery energy storage. Grid impact and
economic implication studies for individual wind power plant will need to be carried out
by the stakeholders.
b. The combination of wind and solar has the advantage that the two sources will
complement each other since the peak operating times for each system occur at different
times of the day and year. The power generation of such a hybrid system including
battery storage, is more continuous i.e. fluctuates less in terms of time and frequency if
these are developed and operated jointly. Enabling environment including regulatory and
commercial arrangements as well as technical studies should be undertaken for this
purpose to maximize the value of indigenous energy resources.
The Way Forward 83

All the stakeholders including the sponsors should join hands on setting up and
sustaining an energy forecasting system with consensus on some suitable business
model for the above purpose. This will significantly help in combatting the existing
challenges with respect to despatch of renewable energy.
For the IGCEP 2021-30, NTDC was set to model hybrid RE technologies pursuant to
Assumption Set approved by CCoE and for this purpose relevant project execution agencies
were approached to provide input data. AEDB has recently launched a technical & financial
feasibility study for this purpose. Based on the output of the study, hybrid RE technologies will
be considered for the next iteration of the IGGEP.
7.2.2 Upcoming Wind Power Projects
In order to utilize huge renewable resources potential of Pakistan in a sustainable manner, the
wind power projects supported by appropriate energy storage should be able to provide the
following grid support:
a. Base load operation for certain number of hours
b. Support in frequency control and regulation
c. Reserve power even when the renewable resource is not available
d. Support in maintaining the reactive power balance
Further, those technologies should be promoted which can be manufactured locally with the
ultimate goal of achieving manufacturing of complete WTG including sophisticated control
equipment. All stakeholders should try to maximize local value addition.
7.3 Future is Here - Time to Understand, Accept and Adopt the New Norms
A fundamental transformation is currently underway around the world in the way electricity is
produced, transmitted, and delivered to end-users. The utility of the past' that relied primarily
on large and central-station power generating facilities intertied through extensive and
complex T&D grids to serve demand located far away from generation sites is now giving way
to a new utility of the future' concept that strives to serve demand right at the spot through a
blend of options including energy conservation, demand-side management, and distributed
sources of power generation.
Power sector in Pakistan is also at a crossroads at the moment and in fact faces a defining
moment in its history. Ample evidence already exists to suggest that the former approach to
managing the power sector entities and their affairs is not proving successful. A continuation
of business-as-usual approach in the power sector will be akin to inviting trouble not only for
this particular sector but for the nation on the whole. It is high time, therefore, to abandon the
old approach and replace it with a new flexible and adaptable approach to running this critical
sector of the economy.
Pakistan's transition to 'utility of the future' will require a thorough revamping of the power
sector's legal and regulatory frameworks, institutional structure, physical systems, business
operating model, and leadership and managerial styles. As planning holds a critical enabling
link in smoothly managing the above transition, the LF&GP-PSP Team would like to propose
a brief description of how planning's role and scope should change in the future.
841 Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

Unlike the past, the strategic horizon for the power sector has shrunk considerably, in
particular, for power generation schemes. Five years is now a long-term for generation
capacity expansion planning as small-scale and modular generation technologies, both
conventional and non-conventional, are available for quick deployment with cost and
performance features comparable, and in some cases even superior, to their large-sized
competitors.
Though the typical lead-times for T&D schemes still remain more-or-less the same, the
availability of inexpensive information and communication technologies (ICTs) is changing
their role in a number of important ways. From just a conduit to transmit electricity from
generating stations to end-users in the recent past, the T&D grid is now being designed to
function as a smart and intelligent platform to enable a host of actors and business interests
to come together in serving the society's electricity demands more cost-effectively, with
superior reliability and quality, and in socially and environmentally sustainable ways.
Both planning and plans are assuming a new and critical role in the 'utility of the future'. Instead
of providing their leaderships with iron-clad strategic plans for the next 10 years or so, planners
are now called upon to help them in refining and crystallizing their crude and sketchy business
ideas by studying the viability and implications of these ideas, in strategizing based on these
insights, and in taking informed decisions on key business issues. The three critical building
blocks of the future power sector planning will necessarily include: (i) a strong strategic
foresight and technical expertise; (ii) an appropriate set of tools and skills; and (iii) a frequently
updated data and information base on local conditions and emerging business and technology
trends in the market.
Focus of planning should also shift now. From its previous concentration mainly on generation
expansion schemes and planning the T&D systems just as add-ons and addendums to these
plans, T&D systems will have to take a center-stage in the future planning of the power sector.
While some large central-station power generation options such as hydroelectric, coal, and
nuclear plants will continue to maintain their relevance in the 'utility of the future', a major share
of future power generation will come from small, distributed, and dispersed technologies to be
connected with the grid at its tail end at distribution voltage levels.
A new source of demand as well as supply will come from the electrified transportation sector
of the country. The battery packs on the future electrical vehicles (EVs), if carefully planned
and managed, will not only be a source of new demand on the system but could also contribute
to improving the overall utilization of generation assets in the system by flattening the load
curve. These EV-based battery-packs can also contribute to system support (ancillary)
services to the grid which to this day are largely supplied by central-station power plants.
The future planning efforts will necessarily have to be evenly distributed among three levels:
'central planning', 'operational planning', and 'distributed resource planning', each requiring its
own skills, tools, and data and information bases, and complementing the other two.
Essentially, it builds on the idea that in the future the power system will be composed of micro-
and mini-grids (studies as well as pilot projects are required to be launched sooner than later
for this purpose), mostly operating in an autonomous manner, but tied with each other through
the national grid of the country.
Central Planning will mainly be of an indicative nature identifying the future electricity needs
of the consumers in different parts of the country, assessing the resource and technology
The Way Forward 85

(4 7
options available for serving the demands as much as possible at the spot and complementing
the remaining demands from other regions and central-station facilities, and planning a robust
transmission grid to facilitate that objective. Sufficient freedom should be provided to potential
investors and developers to offer innovative, cost-competitive, and socio-economically
acceptable power supply solutions. Coordination with other stakeholders of policy planning
especially Planning Commission (or Ministry of Planning), Ministries of Oil & Gas, Finance,
Industry & Commerce, and respective Ministries/Departments of Provinces, would be very
essential for realistic central planning.
Operational Planning will essentially focus on optimal scheduling and despatch of

transmission-connected generation to serve the residual demand that is left on the system
after despatch of all local plants in the distribution systems. Operational planning will also be
responsible with weather and renewable resource availability forecasting to maximize use of
the intermittent and variable output from these plants and backing these up from the central
grid resources for mitigating the intermittency and variability effects of RE generation.
Distributed Resource Planning will be carried out at the DISCO levels and will involve much
more sophistication than the other two planning efforts stated above. It will be based on
rigorous load research as well as local energy resource endowments and operating conditions
to identify the most feasible option of serving consumer demand, through demand
management options, behind-the-meter supplies, from a nearby located distributed plant, or
from neighboring DISCO or central-station facilities.
7.4 Focusing on Indigenization through Harnessing the Potential of Local Coal
Thar coal reserves are estimated by the Geological Survey of Pakistan to be approximately
175 billion tons — making it one of the largest lignite coal reserves in the world. Thar coalfield,
Block II area has exploitable lignite coal reserves of 1.57 billion tons. The total mining capacity
of the project is due to be 20.6 MT/annum. (Source: Engro).
The power system planners should be communicated, by the project execution agencies, of
the study-based analysis of block-wise potential of Thar coal that can be exploited for
generation of electric power so it can be adequately modelled in the generation capacity
expansion software for the next iterations. Similarly, the precision and authnticty of data and
information pertaining to hydrology of upcoming hydro power projects needs to be validated
by the concerned project execution agencies in the most meticulous manner.
7.5 Thinking, Synergizing and Enhancing the Vision Beyond the Borders
It is a well-known fact that there is a severe lack of research culture in the country. It is high
time that concrete initiatives are taken to inculcate a thinking culture in the power sector of
Pakistan. It is believed that initiatives like NEPRA Energy Week 2020 may pave the way for
this very purpose provided NEPRA sustains its focus in this direction. Role of academia, which
is currently restricted to at best a couple of initiatives, may be further encouraged and
enhanced by launching certain projects especially envisioned for this purpose. Academia
along with the established think-tanks may add much needed value to the power sector
interventions in all three segments. For this purpose, securing maximum benefits from'$he
regional and international experience is critical. Power sector professionals need to know the
success as well as failure stories of rest of the world in order to customize the best strategies
for power sector of Pakistan. Perhaps our professionals and decision makers need to
understand that borders are not the hurdles but opportunities for exponential growth.

7.6 Preparation and Submission of TSEP alongwith IGCEP
Pursuant to the directions by NEPRA dated 15th October 2020, NTDC is obligated to prepare
TSEP along with IGOEP for submission to NEPRA, to maintain the true least cost principle at
least for candidate projects optimized by the PLEXOS model. However, subsequent to
approval of Assumption Set by CCI and its notification on 6th September2021, highly stringent
timeline was set by Power Division for finalizing the report; TSEP will, therefore, be submitted
to NEPRA after carrying out detailed studies on the basis of IGCEP 2021-30. For the next
submission of the IGCEP, NTDC would ensure simultaneous submission of TSEP to NEPRA.
The Way Forward 87

IGCEP 2021-30
ANNEXURES
Annexure A. Load Forecast Data
A-I. Projected GOP Growth by Sector
Gross Domestic Product (%)

Year
Total Agriculture Industrial Commercial
2020-21 3.94 4.43 3.57 2.77
2021-22 4.80 4.70 6.50 3.50
2022-23 5.30 5.30 6.80 3.40
2023-24 5.70 5.60 7.60 4.00
2024-25 5.60 5.60 6.30 4.50
2025-26 5.30 5.30 6.80 3.70
2026-27 5.10 5.10 6.10 3.90
2027-28 5.40 5.30 6.60 4.10
2028-29 5.20 5.10 6.50 4.00
2029-30 5.00 5.10 5.80 4.00
A-2. Historical GDP at Factor Cost Constant 2005-06, Consumer Price Index
GOP
CPl
Year Total Agriculture Industrial Commercial U)
wo (G . R)
o.
(Rs. Million)
1970 1,267,148 521,916 186,873 579,134 2
1971 1,282,783 505,894 198,788 593,912 2 7.4%
1972 1,312,525 523,451 195,834 614,983 2 11.4%
1973 1,401,790 532,168 216,100 674,281 2 14.6%
1974 1,506,259 554,416 234,278 740,292 3 26.3%
1975 1,564,685 542,669 238,861 814,601 4 22.6%
1976 1,615,587 566,951 250,572 826,442 4 5.9%
1977 1,661,513 581,271 257,955 851,476 4 9.0%
1978 1,789,964 597,667 282,498 940,936 4 7.2%
1979 1,888,907 616,179 304,037 998,416 5 9.3%
Load Forecast Data 97

GDP
G)G)
E-- CPI
Year Total Agriculture Industrial Commercial
(G.R)
o
(Rs. Million)
1980 2,027,311 656,898 336,778 1,057,387 5 11.2%
1981 2,157,094 680,931 368,373 1,126,941 6 15.0%
1982 2,320,205 713,097 407,931 1,215,949 7 7.8%
1983 2,477,711 744,506 428,075 1,328,322 7 7.0%
1984 2,576,152 708,587 458,308 1,433,216 8 6.7%
1985 2,800,486 785,995 494,209 1,546,770 8 7.8%
1986 2,978,681 832,752 534,241 1,636,012 8 3.5%
1987 3,151,767 859,847 580,428 1,731,923 9 5.6%
1988 3,354,619 883,332 637,433 1,849,120 10 7.4%
1989 3,515,920 944,020 667,081 1,919,566 10 8.1%
1990 3,677,255 972,630 709,973 2,005,528 11 9.1%
1991 3,881,980 1,020,893 758,666 2,110,021 13 12.6%
1992 4,181,463 1,117,891 817,322 2,252,633 14 9.4%
1993 4,276,440 1,058,799 862,378 2,357,019 15 9.1%
1994 4,470,624 1,114,148 901,548 2,456,064 17 11.9%
1995 4,655,373 1,187,322 907,776 2,573,905 19 12.1%
1996 4,962,585 1,326,513 950,655 2,702,388 21 10.3%
1997 5,047,083 1,328,153 947,564 2,799,969 24 12.5%
1998 5,223,424 1,388,155 1,005,511 2,846,025 25 6.5%
1999 5,441,961 1,415,205 1,054,993 2,988,080 26 3.7%
2000 5,654,536 1,501,445 1,068,409 3,112,150 27 5.1%
2001 5,765,774 1,468,754 1,112,558 3,208,310 28 2.5%
2002 5,945,199 1,470,272 1,142,575 3,361,116 29 3.7%
2003 6,226,156 1,531,248 1,190,981 3,536,447 30 1.9%
2004 6,692,079 1,568,451 1,384,670 3,743,003 32 8.5%
2005 7,291,537 1,670,176 1,552,429 4,060,859 35 8.7%
9811ndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

CPI
Total Agriculture Industrial Commercial
(G.R)
(Rs. Million)
2006 7,715,777 1,775,346 1,616,157 4,324,274 38 7.6%
2007 8,142,969 1,836,125 1,741,085 4,565,759 40 7.0%
2008 8,549,148 1,869,310 1,888,600 4,791,238 35 -13.2%
2009 8,579,987 1,934,691 1,790,263 4,855,033 38 7.6%
2010 8,801,394 1,939,132 1,851,565 5,010,697 40 7.0%
2011 9,120,336 1,977,178 1,935,022 5,208,136 72 78.0%
2012 9,470,255 2,048,794 1,984,316 5,437,145 80 11.0%
2013 9,819,055 2,103,600 1,999,207 5,716,248 86 7.4%
2014 10,217,056 2,156,117 2,089,776 5,971,163 93 8.6%
2015 10,631,649 2,202,043 2,198,027 6,231,579 97 4.5%
2016 11,116,802 2,205,433 2,323,169 6,588,200 100 2.9%
2017 11,696,934 2,253,565 2,428,902 7,014,467 105 4.8%
2018 12,34.4,266 2,343,614 2,540,894 7,459,758 110 4.7%
2019 12,600,651 2,356,827 2,501,345 7,742,479 117 6.8%
2020 12,541,834 2,432,850 2,407,093 7,699,891 130 10.7%
2021 13,036,381 2,502,181 2,493,031 8,041,169 141 8.3%

A-3. Category-Wise Nominal Tariff
Nominal Tariff (Excluding K Electric)
1972 20 26 14 9 1997 156 566 375 163
1973 20 27 14 10 1998 185 655 411 187
1974 20 32 18 11 1999 235 718 448 233
1975 21 36 21 12 2000 233 704 416 231
1976 23 46 28 16 2001 259 704 416 258
1977 25 53 34 16 2002 318 708 419 293
1978 24 60 37 14 2003 334 703 442 333
1979 29 72 46 21 2004 434 685 446 351
1980 35 95 57 28 2005 340 660 425 349
1981 40 100 63 32 2006 345 1,003 425 340
1982 42 108 68 36 2007 376 821 517 364
1983 43 118 76 38 2008 464 946 568 429
1984 44 121 76 43 2009 540 1,154 748 502
1985 44 123 78 38 2010 656 1,324 894 615
1986 49 143 92 43 2011 731 1,490 960 799
1987 48 140 89 37 2012 841 1664 1,090 935
1988 52 171 111 40 2013 873 1,793 1,220 1,003
1989 62 213 133 46 2014 948 2,127 1,583 1,202
1990 66 246 150 55 2015 1,022 2,224 1,539 1,400
1991 76 276 166 57 2016 1,048 2,017 1,375 1,266
1992 81 316 189 63 2017 1,065 2,022 1,412 1,064
1993 84 331 199 66 2018 1,114 2,104 1,492 1,125
1994 96 386 229 74 2019 1,300 2,600 1,800 1,100
1995 110 427 268 94 2020 1,362 2,977 2,318 1,060
1996 136 537 336 131 2021 1,429 3,110 2,248 1,365
100 llndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

A-4. Category wise Real Tariff
Real Tariff (Excluding K Electric)
Corn md Agr Year Dom Agr
1971 543 685 353 210
1972 494 635 338 221 1997 323 1,174 778 338
1973 421 567 305 213 1998 361 1,277 801 365
1974 336 538 298 181 1999 441 1,351 843 439
1975 288 499 293 165 2000 417 1,259 745 413
1976 300 605 366 202 2001 452 1,228 726 450
1977 299 638 401 188 2002 536 1192 704 493
1978 270 665 417 160 2003 551 1,160 730 550
1979 291 731 471 214 2004 661 1,043 679 534
1980 317 868 524 261 2005 476 924 595 489
1981 316 798 503 256 2006 449 1,304 553 442
1982 308 797 501 265 2007 457 998 628 442
1983 299 816 522 266 2008 464 946 568 429
1984 284 786 495 276 2009 461 986 639 429
1985 264 737 472 231 2010 509 1,028 694 477
1986 288 830 534 251 2011 499 1,017 656 546
1987 262 768 490 203 2012 517 1,024 670 575
1988 268 878 570 204 2013 500 1,027 699 575
1989 295 1,012 631 217 2014 500 1,122 835 634
1990 287 1,068 653 237 2015 516 1,122 777 706
1991 294 1,066 639 218 2016 514 990 675 621
1992 284 1,113 666 223 2017 502 952 665 501
1993 272 1,070 643 214 2018 505 954 676 510
1994 277 1,113 661 213 2019 549 1,098 760 465
1995 284 1,101 691 241 2020 521 1,138 886 405

A-5. Electricity Consumption by Category (Excluding K Electric)
Street- Exp to
Dom Agr Bulk Others Total
Light KE
1970 367 125 1,646 956 20 487 0 0 3,600
1971 382 152 1,689 1,080 24 638 0 0 3,966
1972 392 142 2,109 997 75 422 0 0 4,137
1973 462 165 2,236 1,184 22 530 0 0 4,599
1974 523 179 2,267 1,142 20 569 42 0 4,742
1975 566 184 2,245 1,531 20 604 63 0 5,212
1976 678 222 2,262 1,386 26 697 45 0 5,315
1977 780 246 2,357 1,400 29 597 43 0 5,452
1978 1,004 305 2,596 1,718 42 784 42 0 6,490
1979 1,240 336 2,770 1,666 70 856 43 0 6,981
1980 1,564 389 3,154 2,057 50 900 46 0 8160
1981 1,858 445 3,482 2,125 58 1,056 44 0 9,068
1982 2,408 574 3,960 2,357 74 873 42 0 10,288
1983 2,866 634 4,427 2,546 78 992 44 0 11,587
1984 3,470 739 4,708 2,663 75 1,069 38 0 12,762
1985 3,887 796 5,061 2,783 77 1,115 37 0 13,756
1986 4,513 875 5,894 2,880 90 1,215 36 0 15,504
1987 5,357 991 6,436 3,452 110 1,361 38 0 17,745
1988 6,290 1,054 7,236 4,394 117 1,571 40 0 20,702
1989 6,939 1,068 7,578 4,356 127 1,795 35 82 21,982
1990 7,647 1,106 8,360 5,004 148 1,646 38 171 24,121
1991 8,617 1,152 9,115 5,596 178 1,700 33 194 26,585
1992 9,691 1,192 10,213 5,823 229 1,799 29 292 29,267
1993 11,220 1,303 10,913 5,595 195 1,925 27 94 31,272
1994 11,963 1,318 10,532 5,743 216 1,964 27 368 32,131
1995 13,448 1,490 10,604 6,220 252 2,112 22 884 35,032
102 llndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

1996 14,792 1,648 10,335 6,657 301 2,377 20 795 36,925
1997 15,594 1,757 10,115 7,018 308 2,485 19 1233 38,529
1998 16,367 1,768 10,238 6,888 307 2,694 16 1,145 39,422
1999 16,927 1,825 9,945 5,575 159 2,646 15 1,808 38,900
2000 18,942 2,003 10,773 4,512 150 2,676 15 1,840 40,910
2001 20,019 2,120 11,744 4,896 146 2634 14 1,811 43,384
2002 20,549 2,285 12,637 5,582 149 2,662 12 1,329 45,204
2003 20,855 2,516 13,462 5,986 166 2,626 10 1,801 47,421
2004 22,668 2,884 14,476 6,624 192 2,796 9 1,843 51,492
2005 24,049 3,192 15,568 6,921 227 2,892 12 2,416 55,278
2006 27,009 3,768 16,596 7,873 279 3,031 13 3,836 62,405
2007 28,944 4,289 17,603 8,097 316 3,252 13 4,905 67,419
2008 28,711 4,358 17,299 8,380 340 3,319 11 4,072 66,489
2009 27,755 4,203 16035 8,695 347 3,188 10 5,014 65,248
2010 29,479 4,465 16,372 9,585 371 3,357 10 5,208 68,847
2011 30,972 4,683 17,700 8,847 374 3,607 10 5,449 71,642
2012 30,365 4,563 18,403 8,414 360 3,509 43 5684 71,341
2013 30,329 4,435 18,636 7,548 351 3,659 60 5,463 70,481
2014 33,325 4,795 20,550 8,130 351 3,872 32 5,441 76,496
2015 34567 4,853 21,086 7,866 330 3,909 33 5,427 78,071
2016 37,123 5,417 21,150 8,364 295 4,239 34 5,059 81,682
2017 41,412 6,114 20,067 9,063 298 4,566 31 5,077 86,628
2018 46,114 6,753 23,274 9,978 319 5,014 450 5,128 97,030
2019 45,590 6,629 24,285 9,676 291 5,082 2,335 4,957 98,844
2020 47,643 6,260 21,489 9,642 273 4,887 2.597 5,426 98,197
2021 49,814 6,688 24,663 10,116 314 4,973 2,802 6,118 99,370

A-6. Category Wise Number of Consumers (Exclduing K Electric)
Dorn Corn Ind Agr Street Bulk & Total

Light Others
Year
Numbers
1971 930,350 238,147 64,494 50,212 587 434 1,284,224
1972 998,922 258,328 67,056 52,343 663 477 1,377,789
1973 1,070,192 275,273 72,158 58,472 684 530 1,477,309
1974 1,137,676 300,219 78,277 63,730 718 534 1,581,154
1975 1,232,621 322,252 80,730 69,687 740 560 1,706,590
1976 1,347,122 347,167 85,250 76,508 801 524 1,857,372
1977 1,498,747 376,284 91,365 81,813 926 722 2,049,857
1978 1,670,213 422,901 95,036 90,341 1,018 832 2,280,341
1979 1,866,550 462,950 100,946 95,666 1,315 787 2,528,214
1980 2,049,728 471,757 101,228 98,268 1,477 821 2,723,279
1981 2,479,453 571,800 111,484 104,108 2,090 1,010 3,269,945
1982 2,732,903 624,900 115,890 111,278 2,161 1,118 3,588,250
1983 2,989,397 674,600 119,417 114,390 2,390 1,225 3,901,419
1984 3,261,362 724,462 123,508 118,265 2,511 1,428 4,231,536
1985 3,500,171 770,465 128,441 120,905 2,447 1,541 4,523,970
1986 3,779,838 834,127 133,573 124,918 2,647 1,684 4,876,787
1987 4,106,424 898,118 139,537 130,034 2,801 1,772 5,278,686
1988 4,525,987 964,377 147,439 136,860 3,017 1,943 5,779,623
1989 5,077,686 1,039,033 153,042 143,869 3,462 2,075 6,419,167
1990 5,467,690 1,088,932 158,800 149,554 3,453 2,250 6,870,679
1991 5,805,382 1,134,754 162,624 152,169 3,531 2,261 7,260,721
1992 6,219,656 1,185,723 169,436 155,305 3,759 2,362 7,736,241
1993 6,622,977 1,221,223 172,145 153,088 3,829 2,488 8,175,750
1994 6,995,561 1,257,887 174,577 157,710 3,730 2,577 8,592,042
1995 7,376,032 1,342,946 179,392 162,303 3,954 2,649 9,067,276
1996 7,783,832 1,344,975 181,092 165,114 3,990 2,728 9,481,731
1997 8,154,894 1,354,940 184,301 167,245 4,064 3,168 9,868,612
1998 8,455,442 1,396,973 186,539 170,562 4,645 2,911 10,217,072
1041 Indicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

Agr Street Bulk & Total
Dom Corn md
Light Others
Year
Numbers
1999 8,911,587 1,517,199 190,084 173,078 4,708 2,979 10,799,635
2000 9,553,828 1,653,870 194,566 174,456 4,892 3,045 11,584,657
2001 10,045,035 1,737,199 195,511 180,411 4,993 3,195 12,166,344
2002 10,482,804 1,803,132 199,839 184,032 4854 3,361 12,678,022
2003 11,043,530 1,867,226 206,336 191,961 5,441 3,739 13,318,233
2004 11,737,078 1,935,462 210,296 198,829 5,800 3,873 14,091,338
2005 12,490,189 1,983,216 212,233 200,756 6,171 3,677 14,896,242
2006 13,389,762 2,068,312 222,283 220,501 6,550 3,753 15,911,161
2007 14354,365 2,151,971 233,162 236,255 6,990 3,811 16,986,554
2008 15,226,711 2,229,403 242,401 245,640 7,337 3,874 17,955,366
2009 15,859,373 2,291,628 253,089 258,368 7,680 3,976 18,674,114
2010 16,673,015 2,362,312 263,507 271,268 8,034 4,088 19,582,224
2011 17,322,140 2,421,221 273,067 280,603 8,386 4,066 20,309,483
2012 17,978,395 2,482,702 286,401 286,287 8,698 4,128 21,046,611
2013 18,713,537 2,550,808 296,849 301,115 9,107 4,184 21,875,600
2014 19,323,307 2,635,086 305,294 310,578 9,369 4,236 22,587,870
2015 20,148,495 2,723,708 315,116 318,081 9,554 4,293 23,519,247
2016 21,040,707 2,814,234 325,816 321,055 9,857 5,030 24,516,699
2017 21,991,479 2,905,517 336,045 323,524 10,124 5,114 25,571,803
2018 23,173,856 3,028,054 339,853 315,021 10,426 149,335 27,016,545
2019 24,465,300 3,144,247 342,949 326,656 10,567 183,350 28,473,069
2020 25,803,759 3,245,508 348,087 344,690 10,932 204,393 29,957,369
2021 27,227,283 3,359,777 357,366 359,124 11,284 210,353 31,529,604

Annexure B. Generation Planning Data
B-I. Existing Installed Capacity (As of September 2021)
Installed De-rated
Capacity Capacity
# Name of Power Plant Fuel
(MW)
Public Sector
WAPDA Hydro
1 Allai Khwar Hydro 121 121
2 Chashma Hydra 184 184
3 Dubair Khwar Hydra 130 130
4 Ghazi Bratha Hydra 1450 1,450
5 Golen Gal Hydra 108 108
6 Jinnah Hydra 96 96
7 Khan Khwar Hydra 72 72
8 Mangla Hydra 1,000 1,000
9 Nelum Jehlum Hydra 969 969
10 Small Hydel Hydra 128 128
11 Tarbela 1-14 Hydra 3,478 3,478
12 Tarbela_Ext_04 Hydra 1,410 1,410
13 Warsak Hydra 243 243
Sub Total: WAPDA Hydro (MW) 9,389 9,389
GENCOs
14 Jamshara - I Ui RFO 250 200
15 Jamshara - II U4 RFO 200 170
Sub Total: GENCOs — I (MW) 450 370
16 Guddu-1 U(11-13) Gas 415 391
17 Guddu - II U(5-10) Gas 620 537
18 Guddu 747 Gas 747 721
Sub Total: GENCOs — II (MW) 1,782 1,649
19 Muzaffargarh - I Ui REQ 210 190
20 Muzaffargarh - I U2 RFO 210 183
21 Muzaffargarh - I U3 RFO 210 184
106lndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

Installed De-rated
Capacity Capacity
Name of Power Plant
(MW)
22 Muzaffargarh - II U4 RFO 320 272
23 GTPS Block 4 U(5-9) RLNG 144 114
24 Nandipur RLNG 525 491
Sub Total: GENCOs — III (MW) 1,619 1,434
Total GENCOs (Public Sector) (MW) 3,851 3,453
Private Sector
Nuclear
25 CHASHNUPP - I Nuclear 325 300
26 CHASHNUPP-ll Nuclear 340 300
27 CHASHNUPP-lll Nuclear 340 315
28 CHASHNUPP-IV Nuclear 340 315
29 K-2 Nuclear 1,145 1,059
Sub Total: Nuclear (MW) 2,490 2,289
Hydel lPPs
30 Jagran-1 Hydro 30.4 30.4
31 Malakand-lll Hydro 81 81
32 New Bong Hydro 84 84
33 Darwal Khwar Hydro 36.6 36.6
34 GuI Pur Hydro 102 102
35 Patrind Hydro 150 150
36 Jhing* Hydro 14.4 14.4
37 Marala HPP* Hydro 7.64 7.64
38 Fakpattan HPP* Hydro 2.82 2.82
Sub Total: lPPs Hydro (MW) 508.86 508.86
Thermal lPPs
39 AES Pakgen RFO 365 335
40 AGL RFO 163 153
41 Altern Gas 31 26
42 Atlas RFO 219 209
43 Balloki RLNG 1,223 1147
Generation Planning Data 1107

Installed De-rated
Capacity Capacity
(MW)
44 Bhikki RLNG 1,180 1,108
45 China HUBCO Imp. Coal 1,320 1,249
46 Davis RLNG 14 10
47 Engro Gas 226 205

Local
48 Engro Ihar 660 545
Coal
49 FKPCL RLNG 172 147
50 Foundation Gas 184 161
51 Halmore RLNG 225 191
52 Haveli RLNG 1,231 1,158
53 HuBN RFO 225 208
54 HUBCO RFO 1,292 1,108
55 KAPCO 1 RFO 400 344
56 KAPCO2 RFO 900 743
57 KAPCO 3 RFO 300 258
58 Kohinoor RFO 131 117
59 Lalpir RFO 362 338
60 Liberty Gas 225 208
61 Liberty Tech RFO 202 192
62 Nishat C RFO 209 191
63 Nishat P RFO 202 191
64 Oreint RLNG 225 197
65 Port Qasim Imp. Coal 1,320 1,243
66 Rousch RLNG 450 389
67 Saba RFO 136 112
68 Sahiwal Coal Imp. Coal 1,320 1,244
69 Saif RLNG 225 197
70 Sapphire RLNG 225 196
71 Uch Gas 586 535
72 Uch-ll Gas 393 370
Sub Total (IPPs Fossil Fuels) (MW) 16,541 15,025
1081 Indicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Installed De-rated
Capacity Capacity
(MW)
Bagasse Based Power Projects
73 Almoiz Bagasse 36 36
74 Chanar Bagasse 22 22
75 Chiniot Bagasse 63 63
76 Hamza Bagasse 15 15
77 JDW - II Bagasse 26 26
78 JDW - fl Bagasse 26 26
79 Ryk Mills Bagasse 30 30
80 Thal_Layyah Bagasse 41 41
Sub Total Bagasse (MW) 259 259
Wind Power Projects
81 Act Wind 30.0 30.0
82 Artistic_wind Wind 49.3 49.3
83 FF0 Wind 49.5 49.5
84 FWEL-I Wind 50.0 50.0
85 FWEL-II Wind 50.0 50.0
86 GuI Ahmed Wind 50.0 50.0
87 Hawa Wind 49.7 49.7
88 Jhimpir Wind 49.7 49.7
89 Master Wind 52.8 52.8
90 Metro_Power Wind 50.0 50.0
91 Sachal Wind 49.5 49.5
92 Sapphire_Wind Wind 52.8 52.8
93 Three_Gorges_I Wind 49.5 49.5
94 Three_Gorges_Il Wind 49.5 49.5
95 Three_Gorges_Ill Wind 49.5 49.5
96 TriconA Wind 49.7 49.7
97 Tricon_B Wind 49.7 49.7
98 TriconC Wind 49.7 49.7
99 UEP Wind 99.0 99.0

Installed De-rated
Capacity Capacity
(MW)
100 Yunus Wind 50.0 50.0
101 Zorlu Wind Wind 56.4 56.4
102 Master Green Wind 50.0 50.0
103 Tricom Wind 50.0 50.0
104 Tenaga Wind 50.0 50.0
105 Dawood Wind 50.0 50.0
106 Zephyr Wind 50.0 50.0
Sub Total Wind Power Plants (MW) 1,336 1,336
Solar Power Projects
107 Appolo Solar Solar 100 100
108 Best Solar 100 100
109 Crest Solar 100 100
110 QASolar Solar 100 100
Sub Total Solar Power Plants (MW) 400 400
Total Public Sector (MW) 13,240 12,842
Total Private Sector (MW) 21,536 19,818
Total Installed Capacity I Capability (MW) 34,776 32,660
Note: *Not mentioned in NPCC DLR because connected at DISCOs level
B-2. Cost Data of Existing, Committed and Candidate Thermal Plants
Variable Unit
Fixed O&M Fuel Cost Heat Rate
O&M Cost
# Plant Name Fuel
($IKWIYear) ($/MWh) ($IGJ) (GJ/MWh) ($/MWh)
Existing Power Plants
GENCOs
GTPS Faisalabad-
1 RLNG 29.31 1.26 12.38 9.56 119.66
Block 4 U(5-9)
2 Guddu 747 CC Gas 181.72 3.43 5.13 7.32 40.98
3 Guddu-1 U(11-13) Gas 19.52 0.44 5.13 9.00 46.63
4 Guddu-ll U(5-10) Gas 19.52 0.44 5.13 10.00 51.76
i1011ndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Variable Unit
O&M Cost
# Plant Name Fuel - -
($IKW/Year) ($/MWh) ($1GJ) (GJ/MWh) ($JMWh)
5 Jamshoro-1 UI RFO 784.53 0.58 11.69 11.42 134.10
6 Jamshoro-Il U4 REQ 784.53 0.58 12.87 11.89 153.65
7 Muzaffargarh-1 Ui REQ 29.31 1.26 12.38 11.92 148.85
8 Muzaffargarh-I U2 RFO 29.31 1.26 12.38 12.08 150.80
9 Muzaffargarh-1 U3 RFO 29.31 1.26 12.38 11.67 145.78
10 Muzaffargarh-Il U4 RFO 29.31 1.26 12.38 11.66 145.57
11 Nandipur RLNG 18.24 3.87 13.71 7.35 104.60
lPPs
12 AES Pakgen RFO 22.71 1.58 13.42 9.54 129.67
13 AGL REQ 27.91 9.41 12.07 8.63 113.53
14 Altern Gas 106.84 7.28 13.14 9.79 135.90
15 ATLAS RFO 23.48 9.28 13.54 8.37 122.56
16 Balloki RLNG 17.65 1.37 12.38 6.57 82.65
17 Bhikki RLNG 18.51 3.43 12.38 6.59 85.04
18 C-I Uranium 145.00 0.00 0.55 10.91 6.00
19 C-2 Uranium 135.00 0.00 0.55 10.91 6.00
20 C-3 Uranium 110.00 0.00 0.55 10.91 6.00
21 C-4 Uranium 110.00 0.00 0.55 10.91 6.00
22 K-2 Uranium 35.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77

Imported
23 China HUBCO 25.60 3.22 4.23 9.31 42.63
24 Davis RLNG 43.09 5.34 13.14 9.90 135.40
25 Engro Gas 18.54 3.38 5.69 8.17 49.87
26 Engro Thar* Local Coal 27.39 6.81 1.63 9.61 22.51
27 FKPCL RLNG 22.71 6.95 7.17 15.87 120.66
28 Foundation Gas 25.83 3.82 5.68 7.68 47.46
29 Halmore RLNG 20.25 3.92 13.71 7.16 102.11
30 Haveli RLNG 17.49 1.22 12.38 6.53 82.05
31 HuB N RFO 23.74 8.38 14.42 7.98 123.43
32 HUBCO REQ 37.67 1.64 12.45 9.98 125.92
33 KAPCO 1 RFO 23.74 2.45 12.38 8.38 106.21
Generation Planning Datalill

Variable Unit
O&M Cost
# Plant Name Fuel
($/KWIYear) ($/MWh) ($IGJ) (GJ/MWh) ($/MWh)
34 KAPCO2 RFO 23.74 2.87 12.38 9.19 116.68
35 KAPCO 3 RFO 23.74 5.53 12.38 9.51 123.24
36 Kohinoor RFO 22.71 5.53 13.22 8.70 120.64
37 Lalpir RFO 22.71 1.58 13.45 9.16 124.79

Liberty (Above
38 Gas 3.44 81.11 7.09 7.96 137.57
61GWh)
Liberty(Below
39 Gas 3.44 81.11 1.42 7.96 92.40
61GWh)
40 Liberty Tech REQ 24.36 10.21 13.29 8.40 121.91
41 Nishat C RFO 24.29 9.26 13.38 8.33 120.78
42 NishatP RFO 24.34 9.28 13.15 8.13 116.26
43 Orient RLNG 27.53 2.29 13.71 7.17 100.54

Imported
44 Port Qasim 27.39 1.21 5.81 9.01 53.51
Coal
45 Rousch RLNG 22.71 2.59 12.38 8.84 112.01
46 Saba RFO 22.71 1.58 13.26 9.60 128.92

Imported
47 Sahiwal Coal 25.60 1.19 7.83 9.64 76.62
Coal
48 Saif RLNG 20.73 3.90 13.71 7.17 102.16
49 Saphire RLNG 19.97 3.86 13.71 7.16 102.04

Uch (Above
50 Gas 3.54 2.48 5.86 7.66 47.42
152GWh)
Uch (Below
51 Gas 3.54 2.48 1.22 7.66 11.84
152GWh)
52 Uch-Il Gas 26.41 2.22 5.35 8.14 45.76
Committed Power Plants

Imported
53 Gwadar 34.67 1.18 3.15 9.66 31.60
Coal
Imported
54 Jamshoro Coal U-I 4.30 2.52 4.35 8.71 40.37
Coal
55 K-3 Uranium 35.00 0.00 0.55 9.73 5.35
56 Lucky* Local Coal 26.20 3.08 2.72 9.23 28.20
57 Siddiqsons* Local Coal 25.80 5.65 0.79 9.23 12.90
58 ThaI Nova* Local Coal 28.02 5.97 1.67 9.73 22.17
59 Thar TEL* Local Coal 28.02 5.97 1.67 9.73 22.17
60 Thar-I (SSRL)* Local Coal 26.16 5.97 0.76 9.23 12.95
61 Trimmu RLNG 13.47 3.08 12.38 6.59 84.57

Variable Unit
O&M Cost
# Plant Name Fuel
($/KWlYear) ($/MWh) ($IGJ) (GJ/MWh) ($/MWh)
Candidate Power Plants
62 C-5 Uranium 43.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77
63 Hybrid Muzaffargarh RLNG 17.01 2.16 5.54 6.00 35.43

Jamshoro Coal Unit Imported
64 4.15 2.44 4.35 8.71 40.28
2 Coal -
65 K-4 Uranium 43.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77
66 K-S Uranium 43.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77

Imported
67 KAPCO Coal 29.37 1.33 2.94 9.23 28.44
68 M-1 Uranium 43.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77
69 M-2 Uranium 43.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77
70 New_CCGT RLNG 13.47 2.98 7.27 5.89 45.76

Imported
71 New lmp.Coal 25.60 3.07 2.92 9.23 30.05
Coal
72 New_Local_Coal* Local Coal 26.16 5.61 1.67 9.23 20.98
73 New_Nuclear Uranium 43.00 0.00 0.49 9.73 4.77
74 New_OCGT RLNG 13.47 2.98 7.27 9.46 71.78

Imported
75 RYK Coal 33.20 0.94 5.40 9.01 49.61
76 Oracle CFPP* Local Coal 33.20 0.94 2.58 8.57 23.09

* Fixed FCC equals to 314.2 $/kW/yr should be added in Fixed O&M of these power plants.
Generation Planning Data 113 I

B-3. Indexed Capital Cost Calculations of Candidate Hydro Power Plants
Capital Cost with lDC (Million US$) Rev. Sep '21 Capital Cost with IDC (Million (JS$) Build Cost
(MW)
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total $/kW
r
I Alka 1.8 2.5 2 4.5 2.17 2.26 4.44 2,464
2 ArkariGol 99 137.25 77.3 214.55 118.66 86.62 205.28 2,074
3 Artistic-I 62.606 187.47 49.37 236.84 187.94 51.67 239.61 3,827
4 Artistic-lI 55.032 101.8646 31.9815 133.8461 102.12 33.47 135.59 2,464
5 Ashkot 300 0 780.306 780.306 0.00 894.68 894.68 2,982
6 AsritKedam 215 266.9667 143.75 410.7167 268.90 153.09 421.99 1,963
7 Athmuqam 450 0 1301.3 1301.3 0.00 1389.88 1389.88 3,089
8 Balakot-Il 100 283 94.33 377.33 283.71 98.73 382.44 3,824 -
9 Balkani 7.7 17 7 24 17.04 7.33 24.37 3,165
10 Balmi 2 2.24 0.96 3.2 2.25 1.00 3.25 1,625
11 Bankhwar 35 67.17 25.91 93.08 67.34 27.12 94.46 2,699
12 Basho 40 72.3 37.85 110.15 62.75 42.83 105.58 2,639
13 Bata Kundi 96 108.42 79.87 188.29 95.32 90.39 185.72 1,935
14 Batdara 4.8 5.3 2.3 7.5 5.26 2.35 7.62 1,587
15 Bhango 2.1 2.35 1.01 3.36 2.36 1.06 3.41 1,625
16 Bhedi Doba 1 1.2 0.5 1.7 1.01 0.57 1.58 1,580
17 Bheri-Il 2.85 4.422 1.56 5.982 4.19 1.86 6.05 2,121
18 Bhimbal Katha 26 30 32 62 30.24 34.18 64.42 2,478
114 llndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP)2021-30

Capital Costwith IDC (Million US$) Rev.Sep'21 CapitalCostwithlDC(MillionUS$) Build Cost
# N fP
capaciy
(MW)
19 BS Link Tail 9 11.34 7.56 18.9 9.90 8.57 18.47 2,053
20 Bunji 7100 9119.6 4378.6 13498.2 8708.14 5076.96 13785.10 1,942
21 Chakoti Hatian 500 0 983.12 983.12 0.00 1127.22 1127.22 2,254
22 Chenawan 3 4.5 3 7.5 5.03 3.73 8.76 2,919
23 Chicha Watni 1.6 2.2 1.8 4 1.90 2.02 3.92 2,449
24 Chiniot_HPP 80 188.85 25.75 214.6 196.68 27.02 223.70 2,796
25 Chowkel Khwar 60 70 50 120 70.18 52.33 122.51 2,042
26 CJ 25 28.5 19 47.5 23.96 21.19 45.16 1,806
27 Daar 3 3.36 1.44 4.8 3.37 1.51 4.88 1,625
28 Daral Khwar-lI 9.5 21.257 7.862 29.119 21.41 8.37 29.78 3,135
29 Dasu (Stage-I & II) 2160 2924.326 2185.475 5109.801 2537.91 2472.97 5010.88 2,320
30 DG Khan 4.65 5.85 3.906 9.756 5.40 4.17 9.57 2,057
31 Dhadar 18.18 36.75 12.25 49 31.77 13.73 45.50 2,503
32 Dhani 48 53.76 23.04 76.8 53.90 24.11 78.01 1,625
33 Dowarian 40 42.0 18.0 60.0 42.11 18.84 60.94 1,524
34 Gabral Utror 79 147.01 52.64 199.65 147.38 55.09 202.47 2,563
35 Gahret 377 1351.03 486.59 1837.62 1190.40 557.91 1748.31 4,637
36 Garhi Habibullah 100 252.9 84.3 337.2 253.54 88.23 341.76 3,418
37 Gharata 1.7 2.98 1.28 4.26 2.99 1.34 4.33 2,545

Capital Cost with IDC (Million US$) Rev. Sep '21 Capital Cost with IDC (Million US$) Build Cost
Capacity
# Name of Project
(MW)
38 G horba n d 20.6 0 69.366 69.366 0.00 80.12 80.12 3,889
39 Gugera 3.6 5.16 3.44 8.6 4.34 3.84 8.18 2,271
40 Gumat Nar 49.5 0 163.453 163.453 0.00 186.32 186.32 3,764
41 Gurha 1.5 1.68 0.72 2.4 1.68 0.75 2.44 1,625
42 Gwaldai 20.4 51.37 0 51.37 51.50 0.00 51.50 2,524
43 Harigehl-Majeedgala 40.32 70.301 37.858 108.159 61.01 42.84 103.85 2,576
44 Huridi 3.5 3.92 1.68 5.6 3.93 1.76 5.69 1,625
45 Istaro-Booni 72 150 110 260 144.95 126.61 271.56 3,772
46 Jabri Bedar 3.6 10.435 1.95 12.385 9.19 2.24 11.43 3,175
47 Jagran-III 35 64.64 60.98 125.62 61.26 72.46 133.72 3,820
48 Jagran-IV 22 27.4 11.8 39.2 27.48 12.30 39.78 1,808
49 Jamshil 610 844 691.2 1535.2 878.98 725.25 1604.23 2,630
50 Janawai 12 13.44 5.76 19.2 13.47 6.03 19.50 1,625
51 Javed-1 II 65 119.34 39.78 159.12 119.64 41.63 161.27 2,481
52 Javed-IV 45 82.6 27.5 110.2 82.83 28.82 111.65 2,481
53 Jhing-ll 6.05 10.0 8.1 18.1 8.79 9.12 17.90 2,959
54 Kaigah-ll 39.6 59.23 60.69 119.92 50.51 66.23 116.74 2,948
55 Kalam Asrit 238 281.613 152. 522 434.135 282.32 159.63 441.95 1,857
56 Kalamula 2.2 2.46 1.06 3.52 2.47 1.11 3.58 1,625
116lndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Capital Costwith IDC (Million US$) Rev.Sep'21 CapitalCostwithlDC(MillionUS$) Build Cost
(MW)
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total $IkW
57 Kalkot Barikot 47 113.1 29.4 142.5 105.82 33.98 139.80 2,974
58 Kappa-Il 2 2.1 0.9 3.0 2.11 0.94 3.05 1,524
59 KariMashkur 495 761.04 403.53 1164.57 865.87 424.18 1290.04 2,606
60 KasorkotTaiwari 2.9 3.05 1.31 4.36 3.06 1.37 4.43 1,527
61 Kasur 2.45 2.9 2.0 4.9 2.47 2.19 4.66 1,901
62 Kathal-lIl 1.2 1.9 0.5 2.4 1.64 0.57 2.21 1,838
63 Khanewal 1 1.5 1 2.5 1.24 1.10 2.34 2,338
64 Khanki Barrage 14 17.7 11.8 29.5 13.23 14.52 27.75 1,982
65 Khokhra 2.8 3.08 2.52 5.6 2.66 2.82 5.49 1,960
66 Laspur Murigram 232 453.03 177.1 630.13 515.43 186.16 701.59 3,024
67 LCC 7.55 10.872 7.248 18.12 9.40 8.12 17.52 2,321
68 Lower Palas 665 680.2 583.7 1263.9 593.75 662.05 1255.81 1,888
69 LowerSpatGah 496 558.8 462.87 1021.67 525.68 534.90 1060.58 2,138
70 Luat 49 0.0 197.2 197.2 0.00 220.00 220.00 4,490
71 Lucky_HPP 20 27.304 14.162 41.466 23.73 16.24 39.97 1,998
72 Machal-Ill 1.72 3.215 1.45 4.665 3.22 1.52 4.74 2,756
73 Mahandri 10.04 19.69 10.29 29.98 17.02 11.53 28.55 2,844
74 Mahl 640 0 992.98 992.98 0.00 1088.74 1088.74 1,701
75 Makari 1 1.1 0.5 1.5 1.05 0.47 1.52 1,524

Capital Cost with IDC (Million US$) Rev. Sep '21 Capital Cost with lOC (Million LJS$) Build Cost
Capacity
Name of Project
(MW)
76 Malkan 2.2 2.46 1.06 3.52 1,625
77 Mandi 3.3 4.356 3.564 7.92 3.80 4.04 7.84 2,377
78 Mastuj 48.6 92.2 27.35 119.55 80.48 31.02 111.50 2,294
79 Mehar 10.49 15.735 10.485 26.22 13.74 11.89 25.63 2,443
80 Meragram 70 172.5 57.5 230 172.93 60.18 233.11 3,330
81 Mujigram 64.26 142.477 35.619 178.096 134.03 41.16 175.19 2,726
82 Murree 12 14.5 9.5 24 12.23 10.50 22.72 1,894
83 Nagdar 35 36.8 15.8 52.5 36.84 16.48 53.33 1,524
84 Nairy Bela 3.2 3.36 1.44 4.8 3.37 1.51 4.88 1,524
85 Nandihar 12.3 0 47.097 47.097 0.00 54.40 54.40 4,423
86 Nand ihar-1 I 10.97 13.37 15.5 28.87 14.05 16.05 30.11 2,745
87 Nara n 188 269.35 161.93 431.28 260.28 186.38 446.66 2,376
88 Nardag ian 3.2 3.4 1.4 4.8 3.37 1.51 4.88 1,524
89 Nausari 48 50.4 21.6 72 50.53 22.61 73.13 1,524
90 N aushera 1.95 3.901 1.671 5.572 3.65 1.93 5.58 2,862
91 Nila Da Katha 34 17.539 70.158 87.697 17.67 74.72 92.38 2,717
92 Okara 4.8 6.65 4.39 11.04 5.61 4.85 10.46 2,179
93 Paddar 3 3.36 1.44 4.8 3.37 1.51 4.88 1,625
94 Panagh 1.8 2.02 0.86 2.88 2.03 0.90 2.93 1,625
1181 Indicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

Capital Cost with IDC (Million US$) Rev. Sep21 Capital Cost with IDC (Million US$) Build Cost
(MW)
95 Patan 2400 2235 2331 4566 1936.49 2638.69 4575.18 1,906
96 Patrak Sheringhal 22 63.7 16.7 80.3 59.57 19.27 78.83 3,583
97 Phandar 80 71.6 80.7 152.3 67.83 96.03 163.85 2,048
98 Punjnad 15 18.9 12.6 31.5 18.23 15.75 33.98 2,265
99 Qadirabad 23 29.1 19.4 48.5 21.75 23.87 45.62 1,983
100 QB Link 9.18 11.6 7.7 19.3 9.78 8.51 18.29 1,992
101 Rajdhani 132 0 173 173 0.00 256.31 256.31 1,942
102 Rasul 18 22.68 15.12 37.8 21.88 18.90 40.78 2,265
103 Ravi 4.6 11.04 0 11.04 9.59 0.00 9.59 2,085
104 Riali-I 1.6 1.68 0.72 2.4 1.68 0.75 2.44 1,524
105 Sahiwal 4.8 6.9 4.6 11.5 4.71 5.46 10.17 2,119
106 Sammargah 28 41.024 25.795 66.819 27.72 30.73 58.45 2,087
107 Sandoa 1.75 1.96 0.84 2.8 1.96 0.88 2.84 1,625
108 Sarral-Dartiyan 8.51 26.44 4.25 30.69 21.83 4.67 26.50 3,114
109 Serai 6.9 9.591 1.28 10.871 9.62 1.34 10.95 1,588
110 Shalfalam 60 137.22 34.3 171.52 138.21 36.53 174.74 2,912
111 Sharda-Il 5 5.25 2.25 7.5 5.26 2.35 7.62 1,524
112 Sharmai 152.12 143.45 257.33 400.78 122.33 280.83 403.16 2,650
113 Shigo Kas 102 202.17765 104.594174 306.771824 174.80 117.20 292.00 2,863

Capital Cost with IDC (Mi lion US$) Rev. Sep'21 Capital Cost with IDC (Million LJS$) Build Cost
(MW)
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total $IkW
114 Shogosin 137 254.06 112.182 366.242 216.65 122.43 339.07 2,475
115 Shounter 48 53.76 23.04 76.8 53.90 24.11 78.01 1,625
116 Shushghai 144 238.129 102.055 340.184 248.00 107.08 355.08 2,466
117 SHYOK 640 1206 650 1856 1255.99 682.02 1938.00 3,028
118 Soan 25 37 15 52 31.19 16.58 47.77 1,911
119 Tajian 4 4.2 1.8 6 4.21 1.88 6.09 1,524
120 Tangar 25.91 35.28 34.209 69.489 30.50 38.33 68.84 2,657
-
121 Taobut 10 11.2 4.8 16 11.23 5.02 16.25 1,625
122 Taunsa 135 235.5 170.5 406 205.57 193.39 398.96 2,955
123 Thakot-I 2220 2031.3 1224.2 3255.5 1815.91 1323.54 3139.45 1,414
124 Thakot-lI 963 990.5 692.1 1682.6 885.47 748.26 1633.73 1,697
125 Thakot-IlI 1490 1279.6 962.9 2242.5 1143.92 1041.03 2184.95 1,466
126 Torkhow 70 157.5 52.5 210 157.90 54.95 212.84 3,041

--
127 TP 9 8.28 5.52 13.8 7.93 6.45 14.39 1,598
128 Trappi 32 77.37 19.33 96.7 71.37 20.64 92.01 2,875
129 Trimmu_HPP 13 16.4 10.9 27.3 14.18 12.21 26.39 2,030
130 Turtorias Uzghor 82.25 94.798 84.066 178.864 87.44 89.75 177.20 2,154
131 UCC Bhambhwal 5 7.2 4.8 12 6.07 5.30 11.37 2,275

-
132 Wan - 43.7 77.84 57.63 135.47 64.46 63.19 127.65 2,921
1201 Indicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021.30

Capital Cost with IDC (Million US$) Rev. Sep'21 Capital Costwith lDC (Million US$) Build Cost
Capacity
# Name of Project
(MW)
133 Wazira bad 90 148 98.7 246.7 149.07 105.11 254.18 2,824
J

B-4. Screening Curve for Candidate Thermal Plants
B - 4.1. Screening Curve For Candidate Plants (c/kWh)
Screening Curve for Candidate Plants (c/kWh)
120
100
40
20
5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Capacity Factor(S)
—.--Nua-cl --GT-400 --CCIN —IMCL ---THCl. —.—R1X Coal —ItybrId Muuafagarb —KAPC0Col Oracle — leonhoco top CoelU-Il
B - 4.2 Screening Curve for candidate Plants ($/kW/Yr)
Screening Curves for Candidate Plants-Thermal ($/kW/yr)
0 S 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 00 65 70 75 80 85 02 95 1(a)
—5U(L-05 -T-4C4 —.—CCLN Vr1 --ThCL ---RYKCoal —H MuUgath —KAPC0C ----Orade ---ianz3ocoSrpCotl-841
Capacity Factor 1%)

B-5. Annualized Cost of Candidate Hydro Power Plants
I nsta lied Earliest Installed Annual Economic Plant

Project FO&M Annualized Cost of Energy
Capacity Availability Cost Energy Life Factor
# Power Plant Executing
Agency
(MW) (Year) ($lkWIYr) (($IKW)) (GWh) (Years) (%) c/kWh $/kW/Yr
1 Alka PPDB 1.8 2025 52.68 2,464 12 50 75% 4.58 301.21

2 Arkari Gol PEDO 99 2029 36.98 2,074 373 40 43% 6.61 249.02
3 Artistic-I PEDO 62.606 2028 42.31 3,827 301 50 55% 8.92 428.33
4 Artistic-Il PEDO 55.032 2027 47.37 2,464 208 50 43% 7.81 295.88
5 Ashkot PPIB 300 2030 30.64 2,982 1249 50 48% 7.96 331.43
6 Asrit Kedam PEDO 215 2028 12.48 1,963 931 50 49% 4.86 210.44
7 Athmuqam PPIB 450 2029 43.26 3,089 1953 50 50% 8.17 354.77
8 Balakot-Il PEDO 100 2028 47.99 3,824 538 50 61% 8.06 433.71
9 Balkani PEDO 7.7 2028 43.75 3,165 44 50 65% 6.38 362.95

10 Balmi AJ K 2 2025 15.28 1,625 9 30 49% 4.38 187.68
11 Bankhwar PEDO 35 2028 23.35 2,699 122 50 40% 8.50 295.54
12 Basho WAPDA 40 2030 1.56 2,639 148 50 42% 7.23 267.77
13 BataKundi PEDO 96 2028 8.49 1,935 358 50 43% 5.46 203.60
14 Batdara AJ K 4.8 2025 15.28 1,587 21 30 51% 4.13 183.64
15 Bhango AJ K 2.1 2033 15.28 1,625 9 30 49% 4.39 187.68
16 Bhedi Doba AJ K 1 2022 16.01 1,580 4 30 49% 4.30 183.66

17 Bheri-II AJ K 2.85 2027 32.41 2,121 16 50 63% 4.44 246.34
18 Bhimbal Katha PEDO 26 2028 34.38 2,478 114 50 50% 6.47 284.27
19 BSLinkTail PPDB 9 2035 17.01 2,053 48 50 61% 4.18 224.04
20 Bunji WAPDA 7100 2040 194.79 1,942 25937 50 42% 10.69 390.62
21 Chakoti Hatian PPIB 500 2030 27.52 2,254 2392 50 55% 5.33 254.90

Installed Earliest Installed Annual Economic Plant
Power Plant Executing
Agency
(MW) ($IkWlYr) (($IKW)) (GWIi) (Years) (%) c/kWh $/kW/Yr
22 Chenawan PPDB 3 2030 18.63 2,919 21 50 81% 4.40 313.07

23 Chicha Watni PPDB 1.6 2028 23.03 2,449 11 50 82% 3.76 270.07
24 ChiniotHPP WAPDA 80 2028 6.82 2,796 273 50 39% 8.47 288.84
25 Chowkel Khwar PEDO 60 2028 64.89 2,042 244 30 46% 6.92 281.48
26 CJ PPDB 25 2026 22.92 1,806 108 50 49% 4.76 205.10
27 Daar AJ K 3 2035 15.28 1,625 13 30 49% 4.39 187.68
28 Daral Khwar-ll PEDO 9.5 2027 27.69 3,135 44 30 53% 7.80 360.26
29 Dasu_2 2160 2032 12.20 2,320 12046 50 64% 4.41 246.18
30 DG Khan PPDB 4.65 2027 21.94 2,057 21 50 51% 5.18 229.44

31 LJhadar PEDO 18.18 2027 40.77 2,503 96 50 60% 5.56 293.19
32 Dhani AJK 48 2031 15.28 1,625 205 30 49% 4.39 187.68
33 Dowarian AJK 40 2026 15.28 1,524 171 30 49% 4.13 176.90
34 Gabral Utror PEDO 79 2029 33.28 2,563 306 50 44% 7.53 291.78
35 Gahret PEDO 377 2031 62.87 4,637 1713 50 52% 11,67 530.60
36 Garhi Habibullah PEDO 100 2028 53.27 3,418 514 50 59% '7.74 397.97
37 Gharata AJK 1.7 2034 15.28 2,545 7 30 49% 6.67 285.29
38 Ghorband PEDO 20.6 2027 43.75 3,889 131 50 72% 6.87 436.01
39 Gugera PPDB 3.6 2026 22.70 2271 21 50 66% 4.36 251.75
40 GumatNar AJK 49.5 2026 489.88 3,764 280 50 65% 15.39 869.53
41 Gurha AJK 1.5 2034 15.28 1,625 6 30 49% 4.39 187.68
42 Gwaldai PEDO 20.4 2029 38.82 2,524 82 50 46% 7.34 293.43
Harigehi- 4.63 259.78
AJK 40.32 2027 0.01 2,576 226 50 64%
Majeed gala

FO&M Annualized Cost of Energy
(MW) (Year) ($/kWiYr) (($/KW)) (GWh) (Years) c/kWh $/kW/Yr
44 Hundi AJK 3.5 2032 15.28 1,625 15 30 49% 4.38 187.68

45 Istaro-Booni PEDO 72 2031 46.76 3,772 284 50 45% 10,83 427.17
46 Jabri Bedar PEDO 3.6 2027 71.66 3,175 26 30 83% 5.64 408.47
47 Jagran-lIl AJK 35 2026 0.04 3,820 159 30 52% 8.90 405.31
48 Jagran-IV AJK 22 2027 15.28 1,808 94 30 49% 4.84 207.07
49 Jamshil PEDO 610 2029 35.69 2,630 2678 50 50% 6.86 300.94
50 Janawai AJK 12 2031 15.28 1,625 51 30 49% 4.39 187.68
51 Javed-IlI PEDO 65 2027 34.59 2,481 266 50 47% 6.96 284.83
52 Javed-IV PEDO 45 2027 36.63 2,481 195 50 49% 6.62 286.88
53 Jhing-Il AJK 6.05 2023 0.72 2,959 34 50 63% 5.39 299.17
54 Kaigah-iI REDO 39.6 2028 17.92 2,948 190 30 55% 6.90 330.64
55 Kalam Asrit PEDO 238 2029 12.27 1,857 931 50 45% 5.10 199.56
56 Kalamula AJK 2.2 2031 15.28 1,625 9 30 49% 4.38 187.69
57 Kalkot Barikot PEDO 47 2026 12.28 2,974 197 50 48% 7.47 312.28
58 Kappa-U AJK 2 2027 15.28 1,524 9 30 49% 4.13 176.90
59 Kari Mashkur PEDO 495 2028 24.18 2,606 2171 50 50% 6.54 287.03
60 Kasorkot Taiwan AJK 2.9 2028 15.28 1,527 12 30 49% 4.14 177.28
61 Kasur PPDB 2.45 2026 11.77 1,901 11 50 50% 4.66 203.53
62 Kathai-iIl AJK 1.2 2023 0.50 1,838 5 50 48% 4.39 185.86
63 Khanewal PPDB 1 2027 16.50 2,338 6 50 74% 3.88 252.35
64 Khanki Barrage PPDB 14 2036 25.28 1,982 38 50 31% 8.31 225.18
65 Khokhra PPDB 2.8 2025 23.03 1,960 17 50 69% 3.63 220.66

Agency
(MW) (Year) ($lkWIYr) (($IKW)) (GWh) (Years) (%) clkWh $/kW/Yr
66 Laspur Murigram PEDO 232 2031 28.38 3,024 843 30 41% 9.61 349.18
67 LCC PPDB 7.55 2025 23.03 2,321 43 50 65% 4.51 257.09
68 Lower Palas WAPDA 665 2042 17.92 1,888 2444 50 42% 5.67 208.39
69 Lower Spat Gah WAPDA 496 2040 14.79 2,138 2059 50 47% 5.55 230.45
70 Luat AJK 49 2025 65.75 4,490 211 50 49% 12.07 518.59
71 Lucky_HPP PPDB 20 2026 66.57 1,998 86 50 49% 6.23 268.13
72 Machal-Ill PEDO 1.72 2027 44.54 2,756 10 30 67% 5.74 336.92
73 Mahandr PEDO 10.04 2028 50.92 2,844 43 50 49% 7.93 337.76
74 Mahl PPIB 640 2029 26,22 1,701 3670 50 65% 3.45 197.79
75 Makari AJK 1 2024 15.28 1,524 4 30 49% 4.14 176.90
76 Malkan AJK 2,2 2035 15.28 1,625 9 30 49% 4.38 187.69
77 Mandi PPDB 3.3 2024 23.31 2,377 18 50 62% 4.83 263.07
78 Mastuj PEDO 48.6 2028 47.07 2,294 238 30 56% 5.93 290.45
79 Mehar PPDB 10.49 2026 23.02 2,443 66 50 72% 4.28 269.43
80 Meragram PEDO 70 2030 46.42 3,330 257 50 42% 10.40 382.30
81 Mujigram PEDO 64.26 2031 39.50 2,726 294 50 52% 6.87 314.47
82 Murree PPDB 12 2028 22.71 1894 64 50 61% 4.01 213.69
83 Nagdar AJK 35 2027 15.28 1,524 150 30 49% 4.13 176.90
84 Nairy Bela AJK 3.2 2027 15.28 1,524 14 30 49% 4.14 176.90
85 Nandihar PEDO 12.3 2026 49.75 4,423 81 50 75% 7.55 495.80
86 Nandihar-lI PEDO 10.97 2029 22.68 2,745 64 50 67% 5.14 299.49
87 Naran PEDO 188 2028 8.63 2,376 693 50 42% 6.73 248.26

Agency
(MW) ($/kWJYr) (($IKW)) (GWh) (Years) (%) c/kWh $/kWIYr
88 Nardagian AJK 3.21 2023 15.28 1,524 14 30 49% 4.15 176.90
89 Nausari AJ K 48 2029 15.28 1,524 205 30 49% 4.14 176.90
90 Naushera AJ K 1.95 2027 34.18 2,862 10 50 59% 6.23 322.84
91 Nila Da Katha REDO 34 2028 17.83 2,717 147 30 49% 7.08 306.06
92 Okara PPDB 4.8 2033 22.71 2,179 29 50 69% 4.00 242.45
93 Paddar AJK 3 2030 15.28 1,625 13 50 49% 4.19 179.20
94 Panagh AJK 1.8 2034 15.28 1,625 8 30 49% 4.38 187.67
95 Patan WAPDA 2400 2032 64.64 1,906 12301 50 59% 5.01 256.91
96 Patrak Sheringhal PEDO 22 2028 10.74 3,583 93 50 48% 8.81 372.15
97 Phandar WAPDA 80 2026 2.26 2,048 360 50 51% 4.64 208.84
98 Punjnad PPDB 15 2037 16.45 2,265 58 50 44% 6.38 244.95
99 Qadirabad PPDB 23 2034 25.28 1,983 51 50 25% 10.21 225.33
100 QB Link PPDB 9.18 2028 16.58 1,992 30 50 37% 6.63 217.51
101 Rajdhani PPIB 132 2029 38.52 1,942 666 50 58% 4.65 234.36
102 Rasul PPDB 18 2027 12.33 2,265 96 50 61% 4.53 240.83
103 Ravi PPDB 4.6 2025 53.45 2,085 27 50 66% 4.54 263.69
104 Riali-1 AJK 1.6 2025 15.28 1,524 7 30 49% 4.13 176.90
105 Sahiwal PPDB 4.8 2030 12.66 2,119 29 50 68% 3.78 226.35
106 Sam margah PEDO 28 2028 65.32 2,087 100 50 41% 7.72 275.85
107 Sandoa AJ K 1.75 2035 15.28 1,625 7 30 49% 4.40 187.68
108 Sarral-Dartiyan PEDO 8.51 2027 75.61 3,114 47 30 63% 7.38 405.99
109 Seral PEDO 6.9 2029 22.25 1,588 30 50 50% 4.14 182.38

Agency
(Year) ($/kWJVr) (($,'KW)) (GWh) (Years) (%) c/kWh $/kW/Yr
110 Shalfala'??? PEDO 60 2027 28.75 2,912 264 30 50% 7.66 337.70
111 Sharda-lI AJK 5 2030 15.28 1,524 21 30 49% 4.13 176.90
112 Sharmal PEDO 152.12 2028 54.02 2,650 680 50 51% 7.19 321,32
113 Shigo Kas PEDO 02 2029 34.03 2,863 461 50 52% 7.14 322.77
114 Shogosin PEDO 137 2031 30.56 2,475 535 30 45% 7.51 293,10
115 Shounter AJK 48 2031 15.28 1,625 205 30 49% 4.39 187.68
116 Shushghai PEDO 144 2031 30.43 2,466 501 30 40% 8.39 292.00
117 SHYOK WAPDA 640 2037 24.34 3,028 3731 50 67% 5.66 329.76
118 Scan PPDB 25 2035 22.71 1,911 107 50 49% 5.02 215.43
119 Tajian AJK 4 2030 15.28 1,524 17 30 49% 4.14 176.90
120 Tangar PEDO 25.91 2029 50.77 2,657 127 50 56% 6.49 318.72
121 Taobut AJK 10 2030 15.28 1,625 49 30 56% 3.82 187.68
122 Taunsa PPDB 135 2026 23.08 2,955 640 50 54% 6.77 321.15
123 Thakot-I WAPDA 2220 2039 44.00 1,414 10352 50 53% 4,00 186.63
124 Thakot-lI WAPDA 963 2037 22.70 1,697 4713 50 56% 3.96 193.81
125 Thakot-IlI WAPDA 1490 2029 30.27 1,466 7280 50 56% 3.65 178.17
126 Torkhow PEDO 70 2030 41.86 3,041 262 50 43% 9.30 348.54
127 TP PPDB 9 2032 17.54 1,598 38 50 48% 4.26 178.76
128 Trappi PEDO 32 2028 37.58 2,875 162 30 58% 6.75 342.58
129 Trimmu_HPP PPDB 13 2036 16.81 2,030 57 50 50% 5.04 221.58
130 Turtonas Uzghor PPIB 82.25 2028 26.02 2,154 377 50 52% 5.31 243.30
131 UCC Bhambhwal PPDB 5 2033 16.58 2,275 30 50 68% 4.12 246.02
128 llndicative Genaration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021 -30

Agency
(MW) (Year) ($/kW/Yr) (($/KW)) (GWh) (Years) (%) c/kWh $/kW/Yr
132 Wan PEDO 43.7 2028 20.80 2921 256 50 67% 5.38 315.40
133 Wazirabad WAPDA 90 2030 3.30 2824 376 50 48% 6.89 288.15

4%

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National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

Islamic Republic of Pakistan

NEPRA Tower, Attaturk Avenue (East), G-511, Isiamabad

No. NEPRAIDG(Lic)/LAT-01/77 September 24, 2021

Subject: Submission of Revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan

This is in continuation to NTDC's Letter No. MD/NTDC/2377-84 dated September 08,

Managing Director Chief Executive Officer

Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer

Determination of the Authority

September 24. 2021

(I). The Authority granted a Transmission Licence-TL

(ii). In consideration of the above, NTDC prepared a Grid Code and

(iii). The Authority after internal review conducted a Public Hearing on

(i). Instead of revising the IGCEP-2020 in light of the observations of

(ii). The Authority considered the matter in its Regulatory Meeting

(iii). In light of the above, the Authority received comments of around

(iv). The above stakeholders inter alia raised various observations on

(C). Submission of Revised IGCEP

(i). In consideration of the above, Ministry of Energy Power Division

(vi). In consideration of the above, NTDC through its letter

(D). Observations/Find incis of the Authority

(iv). In consideration of the above, the Authority has observed that

is actually the center stage of the whole CPEC initiative.

(ix). The Authority has a special consideration for the province of

Engr. Rehmatullah Baloch

Engr. Rafique Ahmed Shaikh

Engr. Tauseef H. Farooqi

(8). Therefore, I am of the considered opinion that observations made by worthy

Copyrights© NTDC 2021. All rights reserved.

iiIndicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30

List of Contents iii

List of Figures vii

List of Charts Viii

Stakeholder Entities xiv

Executive Summary xvii

1. Setting the Perspective I

1.1. Generation Planning — A Subset of Power System Planning 1

1.4. Objectives of the IGCEP 3

1.5. Scope and Planning Horizon 3

1.7. Rationale for Preparation of the IGCEP 4

2. Power System of Pakistan 9

2.1. Economics of Pakistan Power Sector 9

2.2. Power Generation 9

2.3. Power Distribution 11

3. The IGCEP Methodolgy 17

3.1. Regulatory Compliance 17

3.3. The IGCEP Data Sources and Associated Data Types 17

3.4. Financial Parameters 19

g List of Contents liii

3.6.3. Generation System Reliability 20

3.6.4. Hydrological Risk 20

3.6.5. Renewable Energy (RE) Generation 20

3.6.6.1. Contingency Reserve 20

3.6.6.2. Secondary Reserve 21

3.6.7. Scheduled Maintenance of the Generation Projects 21

3.6.8. System Load Characteristics 21

3.6.9. Fuel Prices Indexation 21

3.6.10. CAPEX of Renewable Energy Technology 22

4. Long Term Energy and Demand Forecast 27

4.1. Energy and Power Demand Forecast 27