Sustainable Aviation Fuel

An Imperative for Net Zero Transition

Preeti Jain, Head Net Zero Program IATA

A Webinar on SAF organized by LCB Forum, April 10, 2024

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The Big Picture:
Remember why we started!

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From Industry Commitment to UN Approval

IATA Net Zero 2050 ICAO Long-Term

Pledge Committed Aspirational Goal
(LTAG) is Approved

2021 2022

The confirmation of the UN aviation body, ICAO, aligning themselves with the Long-Term Aspirational Goal
was a landmark agreement for the aviation industry. In attaining this approval from over 190+ member
state countries, it represented:

- A firm global commitment from governments toward aviation’s Net Zero 2050 goal
- A clear recognition and acceptance that SAF would be the key driver of achieving the success of the goal

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 Our commitment:

TO ACHIEVE NET ZERO

CARBON EMISSIONS BY 2050
Target aligned with the global community’s
broader commitment to tackling climate change
and minimizing the global temperature increase

It is also aimed at keeping the benefits of global

connectivity for future generations

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A Timeline of Technology
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Commuter
Electric or Electric or Electric or Electric or Electric or Electric or
» 9-50 seats

~27% of CO2 emissions

» <60 minute flights
SAF hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel
» <1% of industry CO2 cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF

Regional
Electric or Electric or Electric or Electric or Electric or
» 50-100 seats
» 30-90 minute flights
SAF SAF hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel hydrogen fuel
» ~3% of industry CO2 cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF cell and/or SAF

Short-haul
SAF
» 100-150 seats Hydrogen and/or Hydrogen and/or Hydrogen and/or
» 45-120 minute flights
SAF SAF SAF potentially some
SAF SAF SAF
» ~24% of industry CO2 hydrogen

Medium-haul
SAF
» 100-250 seats

~73% of CO2
» 60-150 minute flights
SAF SAF SAF SAF SAF SAF potentially some
» ~43% of industry CO2 hydrogen

Long-haul
» 250+ seats
» 150 minute + flights
SAF SAF SAF SAF SAF SAF SAF
» ~30% of industry CO2

5 9 April 2024
ICAO CAAF/3 & Global Ambition in Near Term
5% CO2 emissions reduction in international How?
aviation by 2030 through SAF and LCAF
 A global policy framework
to promote SAF
What does this mean? production
• 682Mt of CO2 expected to be produced by  Capacity building, a
international flights in 2030 “Finvest Hub”, and
voluntary technology
• 34Mt should be reduced through SAF & LCAF transfer
• This corresponds to ~ 14 Mt SAF  Developing a robust SAF
Mt: million tonnes; 1 tonnes = 1250 liters
accounting framework

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Regional/National Policies - 2030

0.5 Mt 9.8Mt
0.8 Mt 1.2 Mt Incentivizing policies:
3.5 Mt government / industry
9 Mt ? ? 0.9 Mt
collaboration
0.5 Mt
0.4 Mt
?

0.2 Mt
?
7.2Mt
Mandates:
? Government imposed
targets on industry

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Airline Commitments - 2030

43 airlines around
the globe have SAF
voluntary
commitments /
agreements
Corresponding to
~13 Mt of SAF
use by 2030
3.8 % of global fuel
demand

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 Production Outlook - 2030
Global
14.35 forecast
for
Renewable
3.69
Fuel
capacity
~63 Mt
2.42
32.32 We need
10.41
~25-30%
SAF
output
9 9 April 2024
SAF Production Today

2023 SAF Production:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024f
~0.5Mt SAF

Estimated SAF
Average SAF fraction only
<0.02 0.05 0.08 0.24 0.5 1.5** ~ 3% from available
Output (Mt)
Renewable Fuel capacity
Incentives required to make
Global SAF competitive with other
288 157 182 254 271 285
Jet Fuel (Mt)* biorefining co-products, and
increase fractions.

SAF % of Policy designed to enable /

<0.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.1% 0.18% 0.5% support diversification of
Global Jet Fuel
SAF technology also critical
* IATA Economics
** Based on current projections and assumptions that delayed 2023 capacity will fully commercialize in 2024

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SAF Policy Landscape: Mandates vs. Incentives

11 9 April 2024
Options to Diversify & Scale SAF Output:

Build facilities for Alcohol-to-Jet & Fischer Tropsch production projects

Invest & fast-track certification of new SAF production pathways

Global Feedstock Value Chains & their Sustainability

Can we Leverage Co-Processing, Repurposing till New pathways achieve

large scale production…..

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SAF Pathway Diversification

Scale Alcohol-to-Jet,
Fischer Tropsch or
new pathways offer
opportunity to
harness available
abundant low CI
feedstocks as well as
diversify existing
pathways…

Can we Prioritize “Net Zero” for Mobility & Diversity Low CI feedstocks for SAF?
 New Pathways: The ASTM Pipeline
Qualification

ASTM balloting
OEM & regulatory
ASTM D1655
agency review co-processing of
Tier 3 & 4 alternate crude
with petro-crude
ASTM D7566 Lipids

OEM review A1: FT-SPK Fischer-Tropsch

A2: HEFA-SPK
Tier 1 & 2 Hydroprocessed
Early data & A3: SIP biomass
HDO-SAK A4: FT-SKA
discussions
(Virent) A5: ATJ-SPK
ASTM Task Force to
increase current
CPK-0
A6: CHJ blend limit from 5%
(Shell) to 30%
A7: HHC-HEFA
ATJ-SKA: Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Kerosene with Aromatics
A8: ATJ-SKA ASTM Task Force for
pyrolysis oil from
ATJ-SPK: Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene
HEFA-SKA CHJ: Catalytic Hydrothermolysis Jet
used tires

(many entities) CPK-0: Cycloparaffinic Kerosene

POtJ PtJ-SKA
FT-SKA:
FT-SPK:
Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Kerosene with Aromatics
Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene
ASTM Task Force for
waste plastics
HTL (OMV) HDO-SAK: Hydro-deoxygenation Synthetic Aromatic Kerosene
HEFA-SKA: Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids Synthetic Kerosene with Aromatics
… MtJ HEFA-SPK: Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene
HHC-HEFA: Hydroprocessed Hydrocarbons, Esters and Fatty Acids
(many entities) MtJ: Methanol-to-Jet
POtJ: Pyrolysis Oil to Jet
PtJ-SKA: Plastics-to-Jet Synthetic Kerosene with Aromatics
Gurhan Andac, GE Aerospace, ASTM D02.J06 Chair SIP: Synthetic Iso-paraffins 14
Global Feedstock Value Chains

Feedstock by Region
Several options exist per region; lending itself to the development of multiple value chains, environmental
restoration and nature positive projects, and the opportunity to leverage all our certified SAF technologies.

Africa ASPAC Europe Middle East N.America N.Asia Oceania S.America

Cover Crops Agri Wastes Forestry Wastes Atmospheric CO2 Agri Wastes Waste Fats/Oils Regenerative Crops Agri Wastes

Agri Wastes Waste Fats/Oils Urban Landfill Food Waste Cover Crops Agri Waste Agri Wastes Regenerative Crops

Invasive Plants Municipal Waste Cover Crops Algae Oils Waste Fats/Oils Atmospheric CO2 Waste Fats Waste Fats/Oils

Off-Gases Industrial Waste Atmospheric CO2 Waste Gases Urban Landfill Off-Gases Atmospheric CO2 Forestry Wastes

NB: The above is not an exhaustive list, but represents the key identified feedstock categories typically associated with the regions.

How we Achieve balance between SAF Unit size, economies of scale navigating
the complexities around feedstock availability?
Sustainability Certification: Driven by CORSIA Eligible Fuel Criteria
When identifying feedstock for SAF production, these sustainability criteria must be verifiably upheld, so to
gain the certification required to reduce your CO2 reduction obligations for CORSIA:

Carbon Reduction Environment Socio-Economic

GHG Reduction Water Usage Human & Labour Rights

Carbon Stock Soil Productivity Land Use Rights & Changes

GHG Reduction Longevity Air Quality Water Use Rights

Conservation Protection Promote Local Development

Waste & Chemical Limitations Promote Food Security

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The physical output of SAF is only half the story!
Feedstock that drive SAF Diversification (3rd Generation), when left unutilized, are
themselves linked to negative socio-economic & environmental externalities of their own.

Projects aimed at aggregating wastes or recultivating degraded land have several positive
socio-economic effects, which become a major pull factor for attracting investment:

Sustainable Job & Wealth Energy Security

Supply Chains Creation
Land
Biodiversity Regional Development
Restoration

+ SAF: The last customer! Ensures ROI & long-term demand certainty for investors
+ Co-Products: The short-term cash-cow! Ensures initial viability of the biorefinery
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 The critical next question:
How do we get from capacity thresholds to
reasonably achieving SAF production?

Amidst this use & recognition of global SAF Accounting framework by all parties

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Essential for continued progress
SAF production doesn’t just redirect demand away from Fossil Fuel …
SAF’s key driver, the feedstock, has the ability to deliver socio-economic impact
coupled with regional energy independence.

• Accelerated investment into SAF by traditional and new fuel companies

• Governments incentives to facilitate optimal SAF outputs from renewable fuel refineries

• Regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production

• Support for targeted SAF production projects to Final Investment Decision (FID)

• Use and recognition of global SAF Accounting framework by all parties

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 Thank You!
Questions?

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