Chapter 9

Slides by:
Andrew Stephenson
Georgia Gwinnett College
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Chapter 9
9.2
Sampling Distributions
• Sampling Distribution of the Mean
• Sampling Distribution of a Proportion
• Sampling Distribution of the Difference
between Two Means
• From Here to Inference
Sampling Distributions…
9.3
A sampling distribution is created by, as the name
suggests, sampling.
The method we will employ on the rules of probability

and the laws of expected value and variance to
derive the sampling distribution.
For example, consider the roll of one and two dice…
Sampling Distribution of the Mean…
9.4
A fair die is thrown infinitely many times, with the
random variable X = # of spots on any throw.
The probability distribution of X is:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
…and the mean and variance are calculated as
well:
Sampling Distribution of Two Dice
9.5
A sampling distribution is created by looking at
all samples of size n=2 (i.e. two dice) and their means…
While there are 36 possible samples of size 2, there are only 11

values for , and some (e.g. =3.5) occur more frequently than
others (e.g. =1).
Sampling Distribution of Two Dice…
The sampling distribution of is shown below:
9.6
6/36
P( )
5/36
1.0 1/36
1.5 2/36
4/36
P( )
2.0 3/36
2.5 4/36
3.0 5/36 3/36
3.5 6/36
4.0 5/36 2/36
4.5 4/36
5.0 3/36
5.5 2/36 1/36
6.0 1/36
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Compare…
9.7
Compare the distribution of X…
1 2 3 4 5 6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
…with the sampling distribution of .
As well, note that:
Generalize…
9.8
We can generalize the mean and variance of the
sampling of two dice:
…to n-dice:
The standard deviation of the

sampling distribution is
called the standard error:
Central Limit Theorem…
9.9
The sampling distribution of the mean of a random
sample drawn from any population is approximately
normal for a sufficiently large sample size.
The larger the sample size, the more closely the sampling
distribution of will resemble a normal distribution.
Central Limit Theorem…
9.10
If the population is normal, then is normally distributed
for all values of n.
If the population is non-normal, then is approximately

normal only for larger values of n.
In most practical situations, a sample size of 30 may be

sufficiently large to allow us to use the normal distribution
as an approximation for the sampling distribution of .
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
9.11
1.
2.
3. If X is normal, is normal. If X is nonnormal, is

approximately normal for sufficiently large sample sizes.
Note: the definition of “sufficiently large” depends on the
extent of nonnormality of x (e.g. heavily skewed;
multimodal)
9.12
We can express the sampling distribution of the mean
simple as
X
Z
/ n
9.13
The summaries above assume that the population is
infinitely large. However if the population is finite the
standard error is
 Nn
x 
n N 1
where N is the population size and
Nn
N 1
is the finite population correction factor.
9.14
If the population size is large relative to the sample
size the finite population correction factor is close to 1
and can be ignored.
We will treat any population that is at least 20 times

larger than the sample size as large.
In practice most applications involve populations that

qualify as large.
As a consequence the finite population correction

factor is usually omitted.
Example 9.1(a)…
9.15
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the
amount of soda in each “32-ounce” bottle is actually a
normally distributed random variable, with a mean of 32.2
ounces and a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys one bottle, what is the probability that

the bottle will contain more than 32 ounces?
Example 9.1(a)…
9.16
We want to find P(X > 32), where X is normally
distributed and µ = 32.2 and σ =.3
 X   32  32.2 
P(X  32)  P    P( Z   .67)  1  .2514  .7486
  .3 
“there is about a 75% chance that a single bottle

of soda contains more than 32oz.”
Example 9.1(b)…
9.17
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the
amount of soda in each “32-ounce” bottle is actually a
normally distributed random variable, with a mean of 32.2
ounces and a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the

probability that the mean amount of the four bottles
will be greater than 32 ounces?
Example 9.1(b)…
9.18
We want to find P( > 32), where X is normally distributed
With µ = 32.2 and σ =.3
`
Things we know:
1) X is normally distributed, therefore so will .
2) = 32.2 oz.
3)
Example 9.1(b)…
9.19
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the
probability that the mean amount of the four bottles
will be greater than 32 ounces?
“There is about a 91% chance the mean of the

four bottles will exceed 32oz.”
Graphically Speaking…
9.20
mean=32.2
what is the probability that one bottle will what is the probability that the mean of
contain more than 32 ounces? four bottles will exceed 32 oz?
Chapter-Opening Example
9.21
Salaries of a Business School’s Graduates
In the advertisements for a large university, the dean of
the School of Business claims that the average salary of
the school’s graduates one year after graduation is $800
per week with a standard deviation of $100.
A second-year student in the business school who has

just completed his statistics course would like to check
whether the claim about the mean is correct.
9.22
Salaries of a Business School’s Graduates
He does a survey of 25 people who graduated one year ago
and determines their weekly salary.
He discovers the sample mean to be $750.
To interpret his finding he needs to calculate the probability

that a sample of 25 graduates would have a mean of $750
or less when the population mean is $800 and the standard
deviation is $100.
After calculating the probability, he needs to draw some

conclusions.
9.23
We want to find the probability that the sample mean is
less than $750. Thus, we seek
P( < 750)
The distribution of X, the weekly income, is likely to be

positively skewed, but not sufficiently so to make the
distribution of nonnormal. As a result, we may assume
that is normal with mean
 x    800
and standard deviation

 x   / n  100 / 25  20
9.24
Thus,
P(X  750)
 X  x 750  800 
 P  

  x 20 
 P(Z   2.5)
 .5  .4938
 .0062
The probability of observing a sample mean as low as $750

when the population mean is $800 is extremely small.
Because this event is quite unlikely, we would have to
conclude that the dean's claim is not justified.
Using the Sampling Distribution for Inference
9.25
Here’s another way of expressing the probability calculated
from a sampling distribution.
P(-1.96 < Z < 1.96) = .95
Substituting the formula for the sampling distribution
X 
P(1.96   1.96)  .95
/ n
With a little algebra

 
P( 1.96  X    1.96 )  .95
n n
9.26
Returning to the chapter-opening example where µ = 800, σ
= 100, and n = 25, we compute
100 100
P(800  1.96  X  800  1.96 )  .95
25 25
or
P(760.8  X  839.2)  .95
This tells us that there is a 95% probability that a sample

mean will fall between 760.8 and 839.2. Because the sample
mean was computed to be $750, we would have to conclude
that the dean's claim is not supported by the statistic.
9.27
Changing the probability from .95 to .90 changes the
probability statement to
 
P( 1.645  X    1.645 )  .90
n n
9.28
We can also produce a general form of this statement
In this formula α (Greek letter alpha) is the probability

that does not fall into the interval.
 
P (  z  / 2  X    z / 2 ) 1 
n n
To apply this formula all we need do is substitute the

values for µ, σ, n, and α.
9.29
For example, with µ = 800, σ = 100, n = 25 and α= .01, we
produce
 
P (   z .005  X    z .005 )  1  .01
n n
100 100
P(800  2.575  X  800  2.575 )  .99
25 25
P(748.5  X  851.5)  .99
Sampling Distribution of a Proportion…
9.30
The estimator of a population proportion of successes is
the sample proportion. That is, we count the number
of successes in a sample and compute:
(read this as “p-hat”).
X is the number of successes, n is the sample size.
Normal Approximation to Binomial…
Binomial distribution with n=20 and p=.5 with a normal
9.31
approximation superimposed (μ =10 and σ = 2.24)
Binomial distribution with n=20 and p=.5 with a normal 9.32
approximation superimposed ( μ =10 and σ =2.24)
where did these values come from?!
From Section 7.4d we saw that:
Hence:
and
9.33
Normal approximation to the binomial works best when
the number of experiments, n, (sample size) is large, and
the probability of success, p, is close to 0.5
For the approximation to provide good results two

conditions should be met:
1) np ≥ 5
2) n(1–p) ≥ 5
9.34
To calculate P(X=10) using the normal distribution, we can find
the area under the normal curve between 9.5 & 10.5
P(X = 10) ≈ P(9.5 < Y < 10.5)

where Y is a normal random variable approximating
the binomial random variable X
9.35
In fact:
P(X = 10) = .176
while
P(9.5 < Y < 10.5) = .1742
the approximation is quite good.
P(X = 10) ≈ P(9.5 < Y < 10.5)
where Y is a normal random variable approximating

the binomial random variable X
Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion…
9.36
Using the laws of expected value and variance, we
can determine the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of .
(The standard deviation of is called the standard
error of the proportion.)
Sample proportions can be standardized to a

standard normal distribution using this formulation:
Example 9.2
9.37
In the last election a state representative received 52% of
the votes cast.
One year after the election the representative organized a

survey that asked a random sample of 300 people
whether they would vote for him in the next election.
If we assume that his popularity has not changed what is

the probability that more than half of the sample would
vote for him?
Example 9.2
9.38
The number of respondents who would vote for the
representative is a binomial random variable with n = 300
and p = .52.
We want to determine the probability that the sample

proportion is greater than 50%. That is, we want to find
P( >.50)
We now know that the sample proportion is approximately

normally distributed with mean p = .52 and standard
deviation
p(1  p) / n  (.52)(1  .52) / 300  .0288
Example 9.2
9.39
Thus, we calculate
P ( P̂  .50 )
 P̂  p .50  .52 
P  
 p (1  p ) / n .0288 

 P ( Z   .69 )
 .7549
If we assume that the level of support remains at 52%, the probability

that more than half the sample of 300 people would vote for the
representative is 75.49%.
Sampling Distribution: Difference of two means
9.40
The final sampling distribution introduced is that of the
difference between two sample means. This requires:
 independent random samples be drawn from each of

two normal populations
If this condition is met, then the sampling distribution of the

difference between the two sample means, i.e. - will be
normally distributed.
(note: if the two populations are not both normally
distributed, but the sample sizes are “large” (>30), the
distribution of - is approximately normal)
Sampling Distribution: Difference of two means
9.41
The expected value and variance of the sampling
distribution of - are given by:
mean:
standard deviation:
(also called the standard error if the difference

between two means)
Example 9.3…
9.42
Since the distribution of - is normal and has a
mean of
and a standard deviation of
We can compute Z (standard normal random

variable) in this way:
Example 9.3…
Starting salaries for MBA grads at two universities are normally
9.43
distributed with the following means and standard deviations.
Samples from each school are taken…
University 1 University 2
Mean (μ) 62,000 $/yr 60,000 $/yr
Std. Dev. (σ) 14,500 $/yr 18,300 $/yr
sample size (n) 50 60
What is the probability that the sample mean starting salary of

University #1 graduates will exceed that of the #2 grads?
Example 9.3…
“What is the probability that the sample mean starting
9.44
salary of University #1 graduates will exceed that of the
#2 grads?”
We are interested in determining P( > ). Converting
this to a difference of means, what is: P( - > 0) ?
Z
“there is about a 74% chance that the sample
mean starting salary of U. #1 grads will exceed
that of U. #2”
From Here to Inference
9.45
In Chapters 7 and 8 we introduced probability
distributions, which allowed us to make probability
statements about values of the random variable.
A prerequisite of this calculation is knowledge of the

distribution and the relevant parameters.
9.46
In Example 7.9, we needed to know that the probability
that Pat Statsdud guesses the correct answer is 20% (p =
.2) and that the number of correct answers (successes) in
10 questions (trials) is a binomial random variable.
We then could compute the probability of any number of

successes.
9.47
In Example 8.2, we needed to know that the return on
investment is normally distributed with a mean of 10%
and a standard deviation of 5%.
These three bits of information allowed us to calculate

the probability of various values of the random variable.
9.48
The figure below symbolically represents the use of
probability distributions.
Simply put, knowledge of the population and its

parameter(s) allows us to use the probability distribution
to make probability statements about individual members
of the population.
Probability Distribution Individual
9.49
In this chapter we developed the sampling distribution,
wherein knowledge of the parameter(s) and some
information about the distribution allow us to make
probability statements about a sample statistic.
Population Sampling Sample

& Parameters Distribution Statistics
9.50
Statistical works by reversing the direction of the flow of
knowledge in the previous figure. The next figure displays
the character of statistical inference.
Starting in Chapter 10, we will assume that most

population parameters are unknown. The statistics
practitioner will sample from the population and compute
the required statistic. The sampling distribution of that
statistic will enable us to draw inferences about the
parameter.
9.51
Sample Sampling Population

Statistics Distribution Parameter

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Slides by:

• Sampling Distribution of the Mean

• Sampling Distribution of a Proportion

• Sampling Distribution of the Difference

between Two Means

• From Here to Inference

The method we will employ on the rules of probability

For example, consider the roll of one and two dice…

The probability distribution of X is:

While there are 36 possible samples of size 2, there are only 11

…with the sampling distribution of .

As well, note that:

The standard deviation of the

If the population is non-normal, then is approximately

In most practical situations, a sample size of 30 may be

3. If X is normal, is normal. If X is nonnormal, is

where N is the population size and

is the finite population correction factor.

We will treat any population that is at least 20 times

In practice most applications involve populations that

As a consequence the finite population correction

If a customer buys one bottle, what is the probability that

“there is about a 75% chance that a single bottle

If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the

“There is about a 91% chance the mean of the

A second-year student in the business school who has

He discovers the sample mean to be $750.

To interpret his finding he needs to calculate the probability

After calculating the probability, he needs to draw some

The distribution of X, the weekly income, is likely to be

and standard deviation

The probability of observing a sample mean as low as $750

With a little algebra

P(760.8  X  839.2)  .95

This tells us that there is a 95% probability that a sample

In this formula α (Greek letter alpha) is the probability

To apply this formula all we need do is substitute the

P(748.5  X  851.5)  .99

(read this as “p-hat”).

X is the number of successes, n is the sample size.

where did these values come from?!

From Section 7.4d we saw that:

For the approximation to provide good results two

P(X = 10) ≈ P(9.5 < Y < 10.5)

P(X = 10) ≈ P(9.5 < Y < 10.5)

where Y is a normal random variable approximating

Sample proportions can be standardized to a

One year after the election the representative organized a

If we assume that his popularity has not changed what is

We want to determine the probability that the sample

We now know that the sample proportion is approximately

If we assume that the level of support remains at 52%, the probability

 independent random samples be drawn from each of

If this condition is met, then the sampling distribution of the

(also called the standard error if the difference

and a standard deviation of

We can compute Z (standard normal random

What is the probability that the sample mean starting salary of

We are interested in determining P( > ). Converting