Hidrógeno Perspeectivas
Hidrógeno Perspeectivas
Hidrógeno Perspeectivas
and Challenges
February 2024
This article, by S&P Global Ratings and S&P Global Commodity Insights, is a thought leadership report that neither
addresses views about individual ratings nor is a rating action. S&P Global Ratings and S&P Global Commodity
Insights are separate and independent divisions of S&P Global.
Julien Bernu, Associate Director, EMEA Utilities, S&P Global Ratings, julien.bernu@spglobal.com
Catherine Robinson, Executive Director, Hydrogen and Low-Carbon Gas, S&P Global Commodity Insights,
catherine.robinson@spglobal.com
Anastasia Pantazopoulou, Analyst, Hydrogen and Low-Carbon Gas, S&P Global Commodity Insights,
anastasia.p2@spglobal.com
Contributors
Denise Grazette, Editorial, Design and Publishing
In addition to its role in the oil refining and chemical industries, hydrogen is now
emerging as a vector of clean energy delivery. There is genuine interest and investment
worldwide as governments and businesses seek to develop this budding industry as
part of their energy transition goals. Nevertheless, significant challenges lie ahead to
bring this industry up to scale.
Key Takeaways
– Low-carbon hydrogen requires innovation from industry, a pragmatic and
cooperative approach to classification by governments and customer
commitments to a premium product.
– There are currently positive signals, but challenges remain in each of these areas
to reduce development costs and thus deploy capacities at scale.
A striking characteristic of this emerging industry is that interest and investment are
genuinely worldwide: there is scope for some part of the hydrogen supply and value
chain in advanced, industrializing and developing countries alike.
This cross-divisional report by S&P Global Commodity Insights and S&P Global Ratings
describes the opportunities and challenges facing the nascent clean hydrogen
industry. While the opportunity is genuinely global, there are significant challenges.
There are specific implications for gas infrastructure operators in the European market
in particular.
These challenges fall into three main categories: cost reduction and elimination of
bottlenecks, definition and classification, and customer commitments. All must be
overcome to realize a global vision in which hydrogen plays a vital part in a transformed
energy system.
However, there is a clear vision to transform this into an industry that delivers energy
to a wide variety of uses. Technologies to decarbonize the making of hydrogen could
transform it into a vector for delivery of low-carbon energy to its new customers.
Chart 1 shows the ambitious scale of this transformation, as hydrogen moves from
being mainly an industrial gas to becoming a low-carbon energy carrier.
In almost every corner of the globe, there is an emerging overlap of business interests
and political ambitions that strongly favors this development of hydrogen and hydrogen
derivatives as a carrier of low-carbon energy.
The evolution of the hydrogen market: from industrial gas to low-carbon energy carrier
2020 Net-zero
Hydrogen 2% of global
demand Up to 25% of global energy consumption
energy consumption
Truck — liquid
Pipeline Ship — liquid
and compressed
Power
Carbon- Ammonia/
based fuel Steam Transport
methanol/LOHC
reforming/ Reconversion
gasification Conversion
+ CCS
Direct use
Maritime
Synthetic methane
Water
electrolysis Domestic
+CO2/CO
(methanation)
Industrial
Renewable
electricity
Local water
Transmission electrolysis
In all countries colorized on the map, governments have announced strategies that point
their industries toward low-carbon hydrogen as part of their energy transition plans.
In many, these strategies either have been, or are in the process of becoming, translated
into specific subsidy, tax break or other support policies. Prominent among these are the
United States, with its three-pronged support of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan
Infrastructure Law and the hydrogen component of the Energy Earthshots Initiative; India,
with its Green Hydrogen Policy (February 2022); and China, whose Hydrogen Development
Plan (March 2022) is delivering results that include what is currently the world’s largest “green
hydrogen” facility: the 260 MW electrolyzer set in Kuqa, Xinjiang, supplying hydrogen to the
nearby refinery at Tahe. While Europe currently lags China, installed capacity is expected to
grow strongly as production support auctions around the continent get underway.
Chart 2
Geographical range is one part of the hydrogen story. Perhaps more important is the
range and diversity of business interest. Appropriately for an emerging industry, a wide
variety of business models are developing.
For this highly diverse vision to succeed, three serious challenges must be overcome:
cost reduction and elimination of bottlenecks; harmonization of definitions and
classification of low-carbon hydrogen; and lining up robust customer commitments to
buy. The remaining years of the 2020s will reflect whether — and if, so how — they will
be surmounted.
In all these areas, businesses are working to identify the least costly route for their own
interests and business models, and to work out means of reducing those costs.
The costs of infrastructure, storage and pressure management are likely to face similar
new cost drivers that arise from general economic conditions and from particular
project complexities.
– Natural gas prices: Natural gas is the main feed for steam-methane reforming (SMR)
and auto-thermal reforming (ATR) manufacture of hydrogen, and its price is typically
set in a global market. Its price responds to the vagaries of commodity market
conditions, with all their uncertainties. In the past three years, the feed price of gas
into “grey” hydrogen manufacture (carbon-intensive manufacture, with no carbon
capture) has varied in most parts of the world by a factor of two or three. The impact
on the cost of hydrogen can hence be substantial.
Chart 3
12
Advanced planning
9
At the end of 2023,
operating capacity
6
was just under 1 GW. Under construction
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 Beyond 2026
As of Jan. 5, 2024.
GW = gigawatt.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
© 2024 S&P Global.
Even as plans come to reality, and with costs declining, the principal challenge for
low-carbon hydrogen production via electrolysis is the sheer scale of new renewable
generating capacity that is required.
Chart 4 shows the renewables or low-carbon power needed in order to produce
1 million metric tons (MMt) of low-carbon hydrogen from electrolysis. The operating
capacity factors of the various forms of low-carbon electricity generation — solar,
onshore and offshore wind, and nuclear power — determine how much capacity
must be available to the hydrogen producer.
Solar 52 GW 13 %
OR
Onshore wind 22 GW 25 %
OR 50 TWh 1 MMt
Offshore wind 11 GW 50 %
OR
Nuclear 7 GW 80 %
Separately, it is clear that methane reforming, with carbon capture, will be a part of
the low-carbon hydrogen future, alongside electrolysis. Final investment decisions
for large projects have been taken in Europe and the United States and more are
expected in 2024–2025.
Planning bottlenecks
Furthermore, for low-carbon electrolytic hydrogen to take off in the next five years,
planning bottlenecks will have to be removed. Chart 5 shows the typical lead times in
Europe for planning for wind power (offshore and onshore) and for solar power. These
are significantly longer than the lead times either for electrolysis projects or for the
construction of large electrolysis manufacturing facilities. The contrast is striking, and
the main bottleneck is clear.
Solar 5 years
1 year 3 years 0.5 years 0.5 years
Electrolysis projects
Electrolysis
projects 3 years
(10–100 MW) 2 years 1 year
New electrolysis
manufacturing 2 years
facility* 1 year 1 year
Challenge 2: Classification,
definition and harmonization
Official classifications and definitions are paramount for a technology to fit into a
taxonomy, opening the door to green credentials, financing and commercialization,
at the domestic and international levels. For the latter, harmonization of these
classifications could become crucial to envisage a global hydrogen economy.
As a result, a further challenge we see for a future electrolysis industry is the question
of “additionality.” How can it be known that the dedication of a low-carbon electricity
source to manufacturing hydrogen will not deprive another sector of the energy
economy of the same low-carbon electricity? Will the “deprived” customer be obliged
instead to consume high-carbon energy, such that there will be no overall reduction
of emissions? What needs to be in place to ensure that new renewable capacity,
dedicated to hydrogen manufacture, is in addition to the renewable electricity that is
being built to decarbonize the wider use of electric energy?
This subject is being treated differently in different parts of the world. In many
jurisdictions, the issue is addressed by requiring, over time, an increasingly closer
match between electrolyzers’ hours of operation and the actual hours of output of wind
and solar equipment on electric grids, and limiting the use of electricity from renewable
facilities commissioned more than three years before the electrolysis. Harmonized
rules, or some basis for mutual recognition of standards around additionality and time
stamps, will be needed for international trade to develop rapidly.
Consultations have been underway for several years, yet there is little indication of what
common international standards might be agreed. The International Partnership for
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy continues its important work toward setting
ISO standards, and the International Energy Agency has drawn attention to the
importance of the issue, but timelines are still far from clear.
These issues of additionality and low carbon definitions matter a great deal to any business
whose planned activities and value creation depend on a clear recognition of the low-
carbon character of their product or service in multiple markets and jurisdictions. Delays in
finalizing the detailed rules have already caused some proposed projects to be postponed.
Chart 6
SMR average
100
.
No capture
SMR state-of-the-art
Natural gas to hydrogen No capture 91
SMR
90% capture 24
Coal gasification
No capture 226
Coal to hydrogen
Coal gasification
33
90% capture
Electrolysis – Renewables/
36
Water electrolysis Nuclear and 27% natural gas
But the most important criterion for takeoff, strongly influenced by the two previous
challenges, will be the willingness of potential customers to sign up for offtake — to
contract explicitly with suppliers to deliver low-carbon hydrogen.
S&P Global’s industry partners are strongly signaling that, while cost reduction and
regulatory harmonization are important, the focus now needs to turn to the demand
side: finding reliable customers for low-carbon hydrogen (see Chart 7).
If production costs can be reduced, there will still be a geographical issue; hydrogen
produced at this cost far from the end-use point will not stimulate demand. What
matters is the effective cost of hydrogen delivered to the user at the end point. In
markets where there is a carbon price, this can help move the dial in the direction of
making low-carbon hydrogen competitive. Consumption mandates, such as European
policies around RFNBOs (renewable fuels of nonbiological origin) or Japanese rules on
cofiring of power plants, move the dial further — and give clues as to which sectors (in
industry and transport, for example) may become first movers.
The critical test will be when customers sign up for long-term offtake, and with
appropriate guarantees or assurances.
Chart 7
In this context, the focus on developing hydrogen hubs or hydrogen valleys, adopted
by many countries with high ambitions for hydrogen as part of their energy transition
strategies, is sensible and welcome. Industry recognizes that it will have to play its part
for the hub/valley approach and structure to be successful.
Such initiatives, both from hydrogen producer and consumer sides, will continue to flourish.
This risk of “regulatory reset” weighs on S&P Global Ratings’ views of business
risk profiles in the regulated gas network sector. In view of the challenges and
uncertainties described above, repurposing natural gas pipelines to transport low-
carbon hydrogen is unlikely to happen at sufficient speed, low enough cost or large
enough scale to diminish the risk. Hydrogen-related investments by gas operators
themselves are, for the most part, currently small scale — limited to pilot projects
or to testing the resiliency of blending up to 15%-20% of hydrogen (by volumes) with
natural gas. Our credit ratings base case reflects both reset risk and the marginal
nature of these investments.
– In the Netherlands, for example, the state via its gas transmission system operator
plans to build the hydrogen backbone with investments of about €1.5 billion by 2030,
about 50% of which will be covered by government grants. Plans involve deploying
200 km of new pipelines, with the major effort devoted to adapting existing natural
gas infrastructures.
– Backbone plans in Spain and the United Kingdom may only reach maturity in 2026;
they are conditional, in Spain’s case, on decisions on eligibility for European funding,
and in the UK, on a broader governmental decision on whether hydrogen will have a
role in the decarbonization of the heating sector.
– As well as these national-scale plans, some gas distribution grids could also be
positioned to make local investments in direct connections between hydrogen
producers and industrial end users at their operational sites. Such projects remain
marginal for now.
At this stage, we do not envision any potential material step-up in investments related
to low-carbon hydrogen network infrastructures before 2030. Yet, the sector would
need to be financially prepared should these heavy investments start to materialize.
Funding strategies, financial policies and balance-sheet robustness in particular
could be key areas of attention in order to preserve credit quality. These financial and
investment decisions come at a time of uncertain natural gas demand evolution and
still-unclear pickup potential on green gases. Regulatory support will also remain a
major variable for the creditworthiness of these companies, affecting the timeliness
of allowed cost recovery, tariff setting changes, and possible compensation for
decline in gas usage. As regulatory periods end and new usages emerge, operators
may face higher regulatory reset uncertainties.
Conclusion
Low-carbon hydrogen is a business that has already started to grow. It has strong
political support and industry interest across the world. But the challenges identified
above — cost and scale, planning bottlenecks, defining rules for what is “green” and
lining up customers willing to commit to a product at a premium cost — mean that
the transition to hydrogen is unlikely to happen at a speed and scale to transform the
business environment for regulated European infrastructure companies.
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