MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016) doi:10.

1093/mnras/stw1846
Advance Access publication 2016 July 28

Dormant comets among the near-Earth object population:

a meteor-based survey

Quan-Zhi Ye,‹ Peter G. Brown and Petr Pokorný

Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada

Accepted 2016 July 25. Received 2016 July 6; in original form 2016 May 29

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ABSTRACT
Dormant comets in the near-Earth object (NEO) population are thought to be involved in
the terrestrial accretion of water and organic materials. Identification of dormant comets
is difficult as they are observationally indistinguishable from their asteroidal counterparts,
however, they may have produced dust during their final active stages which potentially
are detectable today as weak meteor showers at the Earth. Here we present the result of a
reconnaissance survey looking for dormant comets using 13 567 542 meteor orbits measured
by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). We simulate the dynamical evolution of
the hypothetical meteoroid streams originated from 407 near-Earth asteroids in cometary
orbits that resemble orbital characteristics of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Out of the 44
hypothetical showers that are predicted to be detectable by CMOR, we identify five positive
detections that are statistically unlikely to be chance associations, including three previously
known associations. This translates to a lower limit to the dormant comet fraction of 2.0 ±
1.7 per cent in the NEO population and a dormancy rate of ∼10−5 yr−1 per comet. The low
dormancy rate confirms disruption and dynamical removal as the dominant end state for near-
Earth JFCs. We also predict the existence of a significant number of meteoroid streams whose
parents have already been disrupted or dynamically removed.
Key words: comets: general – meteorites, meteors, meteoroids – minor planets, asteroids:
general.

It has long been known that the dust produced by Earth-

1 I N T RO D U C T I O N
approaching comets can be detected as meteor showers at the Earth
Dormant comets are comets that have depleted their volatiles (e.g. Schiaparelli 1866, 1867). Dormant comets, though no longer
and are no longer ejecting dust.1 Due to their inactive nature, being currently active, may have produced dust during their final
dormant comets cannot be easily distinguished from their asteroidal active phases, which are potentially still detectable as weak meteor
counterparts by current observing techniques (e.g. Luu & Jewitt showers. This has a significant implications for the investigation
1990). As the physical lifetime of a comet is typically shorter than of dormant comets, as any cometary features of these objects are
its dynamical lifetime, it is logical that a large number of defunct otherwise no longer telescopically observable. Past asteroid-stream
or dormant comets exist (Wiegert & Tremaine 1999; Di Sisto, searches have revealed some possible linkages, the most notable be-
Fernández & Brunini 2009). Dormant comets in the near-Earth ing (3200) Phaethon and the Geminids (e.g. Williams & Wu 1993;
object (NEO) population are of particular interest, as they can de León et al. 2010; Jewitt, Li & Agarwal 2013, and many others)
impact the Earth and contribute to the terrestrial accretion of water as well as (196256) 2003 EH1 and the Quadrantids (Jenniskens
and organic materials as normal comets (e.g. Hartogh et al. 2011, 2004; Abedin et al. 2015), both involving meteor showers that are
and the references therein). exceptional in terms of activity. However, most showers are weak
in activity, making parent identification difficult.
Radar was introduced into meteor astronomy in the 1940s and
has developed into a powerful meteor observing technique (cf. Ce-
 E-mail: qye22@uwo.ca plecha et al. 1998). Radar detects meteors through the reflection
1 We note that the term ‘extinct comet’ is also frequently used in the liter- of transmitted radio pulses from the ionized meteor trail formed
ature. Strictly speaking, ‘dormant comet’ is usually associated with comets
during meteor ablation. Radar observations are not limited by
that only temporarily lose the ability to actively sublimate, while the term
‘extinct comet’ usually refers to the cometary nuclei that have permanently
weather and/or sunlit conditions and are able to detect very faint
lost the ability to sublimate (cf. Weissman, Bottke & Levison 2002, for a meteors. The Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR), for exam-
more comprehensive discussion). However, in practice, it is difficult to judge ple, has recorded about 14 million meteor orbits as of 2016 May,
whether the comet is temporarily or permanently inactive. In this work, we which is currently the largest data set for meteor orbits and hence a
use the general term ‘dormant comet’ which can mean either scenario. powerful tool to investigate weak meteor showers.


C 2016 The Authors

Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society

3512 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný
Efforts have been made to the search for dormant comets for sev- planet is never strictly circular, as well as the fact that the small
eral decades. Among the early attempts, Kresak (1979) discussed body is also perturbed by other planets (e.g. Murray & Dermott
the use of the Tisserand parameter (Tisserand 1891) as a simple 1999, p.73). We also consider the precision of the perturbed orbit
dynamical indicator for the identification of dormant comets. As- solution, which is parametrized as the Uncertainty Parameter, U
suming Jupiter as the perturbing planet, the Tisserand parameter is (see Marsden, Sekanina & Everhart 1978). We only consider ob-
defined as jects with U ≤ 2, as objects falling into this category are considered
 ‘secure’ and will be permanently numbered.2 With these criteria,
aJ a(1 − e2 ) we identify a total of 407 objects from 13 763 known NEOs as of
TJ = +2 cos i, (1)
a aJ 2016 February 9. These 407 ACOs in the NEO population repre-
sent possible dormant comets which may have produced meteoroid
where aJ is the semimajor axis of Jupiter, and a, e, and i are the semi-
streams in the recent past.
major axis, eccentricity, and inclination of orbital plane of the small
body. A small body is considered dynamically comet-like if TJ  3.
An asteroid with TJ  3 is classified as an asteroid in cometary orbit 2.2 Objects with detectable meteor showers

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(ACO). Note that dormant comets and ACOs are not all physically
comets originate from the Kuiper belt, as a fraction of ACOs might The next step is to simulate the ‘virtual’ meteoroid stream of each
originate from the main asteroid belt (e.g. Binzel et al. 2004). Sep- object to see if a meteor shower is currently detectable by CMOR.
aration of main belt interlopers is difficult, but attempts have been Following the discussion in Ye, Brown & Wiegert (2016b), the
made both dynamically (e.g. Fernández, Gallardo & Brunini 2002; meteoroid flux F at Earth can be calculated by
Tancredi 2014) and spectroscopically to separate possible cometary ηNm τstream
F= , (2)
nuclei from asteroidal bodies (e.g. Fernández, Jewitt & Sheppard P 2 tshower
2
V⊕
2

2005; DeMeo & Binzel 2008; Licandro et al. 2016). However,

few attempts have been made to link ACOs with meteor showers. where η is the fraction of potentially visible meteoroids, a subset of
Jenniskens (2008) provided a comprehensive review of meteoroid the Earth-bound meteoroids that may be visible as meteors, defined
streams possibility associated with dormant comets based on the as meteoroids with Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance (MOID)
similarity between their orbits, but a comprehensive contemporary <0.01 au with respect to the Earth’s orbit (typical cross-section of
‘cued’ survey to look for all possible weak streams from the large meteoroid stream, see Brown & Jones 1998; Göckel & Jehn 2000);
number of recently discovered ACOs/NEOs that may have had weak Nm is the meteoroid/dust production of the parent, which we take
past activity, including formation of early meteoroid trails, is yet to Nm ∼ 1015 per orbit as a median case for near-Earth JFCs (elaborated
be performed. in Appendix A); τ stream is the age of the meteoroid stream; P is
In this work, we present a survey for dormant comets in the orbital period of the parent; tshower is the duration of the meteor
ACO component in the NEO population through the meteoroid shower (defined by half-width-half-maximum of the shower), and
streams they might have produced during their active phase, using V⊕ = 30 km s−1 is the orbital speed of the Earth.
the most complete CMOR data set available to date. The survey The CMOR-observed flux will be different from F as the de-
is performed in a ‘cued search’ manner rather than a commonly tection efficiency of CMOR is a function of the meteoroid arrival
used blind search: we first identify eligible ACOs (i.e. with well- speed (Fig. 1) and meteoroid stream size distribution (Fig. 2). For
determined orbits suitable for long-term integration) in the NEO each virtual stream, we assign ηCMOR being the CMOR detection
population (Section 2), then simulate the formation and evolution efficiency, as
of the meteoroid trails produced by such ACOs assuming they have FCMOR = ηCMOR · F . (3)
recently been active (Section 3), and then search the CMOR data
using the virtual shower characteristics to identify ‘real’ streams There remain four unknown variables: η, τ stream , tshower and
now visible at the Earth (Section 4). Our survey thus simulates ηCMOR . Typical numbers for the first three variables are η ∼ 0.1 (i.e.
all near-Earth ACOs (NEACOs) which are now known and which 1 out of every 10 simulated meteoroids will reach the Earth), τ stream
would have produced meteor showers at the Earth if they were ∼ a few 102 yr and tshower ∼ a few days, but all of these quantities
recently active. This approach accounts for orbital evolution of the are highly variable (McIntosh & Hajduk 1983; Cremonese et al.
parent and the subsequent evolution of the virtual meteoroid stream. 1997; Jenniskens 2006). For our survey, we compute all of these
quantities per object (and the fourth variable, ηCMOR ) numerically
using the following procedure.
2 I D E N T I F I C AT I O N O F P OT E N T I A L We define τ stream first as the other three variables depend on
S H OW E R - P RO D U C I N G O B J E C T S it. Simulations are performed using the MERCURY6-based (cf.
Chambers 1999) meteoroid model developed in our earlier works
2.1 Dormant comets in the NEO population (e.g. Ye & Hui 2014; Ye et al. 2015). We employ the ejection model
described by Jones (1995) for meteoroids with sizes between 0.5
To establish the starting conditions for the survey, we first iden- and 50 mm, an ‘envelop’ size range appropriate to the detection
tify possible dormant comets in the NEO population. By definition, range of CMOR as given by the meteoroid ablation model (Fig. 1,
NEOs have perihelion distance q < 1.3 au. In this work, we fo- cf. Campbell-Brown & Koschny 2004), assuming a bulk density
cus our sampling among the orbit range of Jupiter-family comets of 1000 kg · m−3 and a size distribution of dN/da ∝ a−q where
or JFCs which overlaps the NEO population (near-Earth JFCs or q = 3.6 (Fulle 2004, Section 5). Meteoroids are released in a
NEJFCs as used by other authors). We use a slightly more relaxed timestep of 10 d when the parent is within the sublimation line
constraint than the original Tisserand’s derivation, namely 1.95 <
TJ < 3.05. This is because the Tisserand parameter is derived as-
suming restricted three-body problem with a circular orbit of the 2 See http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/info/UValue.html, retrieved

planet; in reality, TJ is only an approximate, since the orbit of the 2016 February 10.

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3513
We operationally define τ stream as the time taken for the median
D-parameter of any two test meteoroids to grow beyond a given
threshold. The D-parameter was originally introduced by South-
worth & Hawkins (1963) for meteor shower identification; it is
essentially a measure of the similarity between a pair of orbits
denoted as A and B:
 
I 2
DA,B
2
= (qB − qA )2 + (eB − eA )2 + 2 sin
2
 2

+ (eA + eB ) sin , (4)
2
where
I = arccos [cos iA cos iB + sin iA sin iB cos (A − B )]

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Figure 1. Size–speed relation of meteors at absolute magnitude in the gen- (5)
eral R bandpass of R = 0 (typical detection limit of all-sky video networks),
 
R = 4 (typical detection limit of narrow field video networks, as well as the i A + iB A − B I
upper limit of automated radar detection as meteor echo scattering changes  = ωA − ωB + 2 arcsin cos sin sec , (6)
2 2 2
from the underdense to the overdense regime; cf. Ye et al. 2014), R = 7
(CMOR median for meteor orbits) and R = 8.5 (CMOR detection limit) and the subscripts A and B refer to the two orbits being compared.
assuming bulk density of 1000 kg m−3 . Calculated using the meteoroid ab- Here q is the perihelion distance in au, e is the eccentricity, i is
lation model developed by Campbell-Brown & Koschny (2004), where the the inclination,  is the longitude of ascending node, and ω is the
luminous efficiency is constant at 0.7 per cent and the ionization coefficient argument of perihelion. The sign of the arcsin term in the equation
is from Bronshten (1981). Note that other authors (Jones 1997; Weryk & for  switches if |A − B | > 180◦ .
Brown 2013) have argued that these coefficients may be off by up to a The physical meaning of τ stream can be interpreted as a measure
factor of ∼10 at extreme speeds (v g  15 km s−1 or v g  70 km s−1 ), but
of the dispersion time-scale of the meteoroid stream, equivalent to
most of the showers we examined in this work have moderate v g , hence
this issue does not impact our final results. The CMOR detection range is
the age of the stream.
appropriated to an ionization coefficient I of 5–100 in Wiegert, Vaubaillon For each object, the simulation starts with τ stream = 100 yr.
& Campbell-Brown (2009)’s model. This value is incremented in steps of 100 yr, until the median
D-parameter among all test particles that composed the virtual
stream reaches D = 0.1, an empirical cutoff that was found by
Southworth & Hawkins (1963) and was later revisited by many
(e.g. Sekanina 1976; Drummond 1981; Ceplecha et al. 1998);
or τ stream = 104 yr which we adopt as an operational upper
limit for the simulation, as this is comparable to the oldest esti-
mated stream ages based on de-coherence time-scales (Pauls &
Gladman 2005).
Once τ stream is determined, we calculate the MOID of each test
meteoroids with respect to the Earth’s orbit at the epoch of 2012
January 1 Terrestrial Time and collect those with MOID < 0.01
au (i.e. potentially visible meteoroids). The values of η, ηCMOR
(the number of meteoroids detectable by CMOR size bins divided
by the total number of potentially visible meteoroids) and tshower
(defined as the standard deviation of the solar longitudes of the
MOID points) are readily available at this stage. The number of test
meteoroids making the CMOR-detectable virtual meteor shower
(not the total simulated test meteoroids which is ∼105 ) at this stage
is typically ∼103 and is at least 100. The virtual meteoroid shower
Figure 2. Examples of altered arrival size distribution due to different flux for each parent is then calculated using equations (2) and (3).
delivery efficiency at different sizes. The meteoroids from (196256) 2003 The detection limit for multiyear CMOR data is of the order of
EH1 (top figure) is more similar to the original size distribution at the parent, 10−3 km−2 h−1 (Bruzzone et al. 2015). Hence, we only consider
while for the case of 2015 TB145 (lower figure), larger meteoroids are more virtual showers with FCMOR  10−3 km−2 h−1 as CMOR-detectable
efficiently delivered than smaller meteoroids. Shaded areas are the CMOR- showers.
detection size range. Readers may immediately notice that, for a significant fraction of
the objects, the calculated τ stream is beyond the typical chaotic time-
(rh < 2.3 au). The system of planets, parent bodies and meteoroids scale of JFCs (∼1000 yr; e.g. Tancredi 1995). Here it is important to
are then integrated with the RADAU integrator (Everhart 1985) with note that our approach focuses at the mean orbit rather than the exact
an initial timestep of 7 d. Timestep is reduced upon close encoun- position of the parent; therefore, we are to examine the chaotic time-
ters as documented in Chambers & Migliorini (1997). Gravitational scale of the orbit instead of the parent. For each object, we generate
perturbations from the eight major planets (with the Earth–Moon 100 clones from the covariance matrix of the orbital elements3 and
system represented by a single mass at the barycenter of the two
bodies), radiation pressure and Poynting–Robertson effect are con- 3 Available from the JPL Small-Body Database, retrieved on 2016 February

sidered in the integration. 15.

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3514 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný
integrate them backwards in time. Similar to the definition of τ stream , precision of the observation. Objects with extremely long τ parent are
we define the parental orbital chaotic time-scale τ parent as the time usually found in/near mean-motion resonances, and/or observed
taken for the median D-parameter of any two clones to grow beyond by high-precision techniques (e.g. radar observations). The me-
0.1. Thus, τ parent corresponds to the time that the parent orbit is well dian τ stream is found to be ∼1800 yr, which is also consistent with
constrained and the associated meteoroid stream can therefore be other studies (e.g. Babadzhanov & Obrubov 1992; Jenniskens 2006,
simulated with confidence. The value of τ stream should be viewed section 26.1).
cautiously if τ parent  τ stream . For the prediction of meteor outbursts, we first probe the transition
Following this procedure, we identify 44 objects that meet both time-scale from trail to stream, or simply the encircling time of the
our visibility and detection criteria, and that the stream formation meteoroid cloud, τ enc . In another sense, τ enc corresponds to the time
process have the potential of producing CMOR-detectable meteor that the ejection state of a meteoroid trail is preserved. We define τ enc
activity between 2002 and 2015. Note that no geographic constraint as the time taken for the standard deviation of the mean anomalies
is considered at this stage; i.e. southerly virtual radiants are still in- of the meteoroids to reach 60◦ (The mathematical consideration
cluded. Detailed results are tabulated in Table 1 and in Appendix B. is that 99.7 per cent or 3σ of the meteoroids spread to half-orbit
The values of τ parent and τ stream for each object are also listed. Several or 180◦ in mean anomaly assuming a Gaussian distribution). The

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known asteroid-stream linkages are among the list, such as (196256) simulation is conducted in the same manner as the simulation in
2003 EH1 – Quadrantids (Jenniskens 2004; Abedin et al. 2015) and Section 2.2. We then follow the evolution of the meteoroid trail
2004 TG10 – Taurid complex (Jenniskens 2006; Porubčan, Kornoš formed by each parent up to τ enc years preceding 2012 AD and
& Williams 2006). For these established linkages, the calculated search for encounters between the trails and the Earth in CMOR-
radiants and arrival speeds agree with observations within uncer- operational years (2002–2015). For each encounter, we estimate the
tainties, providing some basic validation of the meteoroid mod- meteoroid flux following the method described in Ye et al. (2016a)
elling approach. In particular, we note that the calculated stream taking the median JFC model for dust production of the parent.
ages (τ stream ) are 300 yr for Quadrantids and 6100 yr for the 2004 We only consider encounters with the Earth’s orbit of less than
TG10 component in the Taurid complex, consistent with previous ∼0.002 au (cf. the discussion regarding the ‘second space criterion’
findings (200 yr for Quadrantids and ∼104 yr for Taurids; e.g. Steel, in Vaubaillon, Colas & Jorda 2005) and predicted meteoroid flux
Asher & Clube 1991; Abedin et al. 2015). Additionally, our model FCMOR > 10−2 km−2 hr−1 , the detection limit of single year CMOR
predicts a flux of 0.012 km−2 h−1 for the Quadrantids to CMOR’s data (Ye et al. 2016a). Our model predicts 25 outburst events from a
limiting sensitivity, broadly consistent with daily average fluxes of total of 11 objects that are potentially detectable by CMOR. These
a few 0.01 km−2 h−1 (e.g. Brown et al. 1998). The modelled flux for are tabulated in Table 4.
the Taurids, however, is about 100 times higher than observations,
likely related to the formation mechanism of the Taurids not being
purely sublimation-driven (cf. Jenniskens 2006, section 25, and the
references therein) which differs from our modelling assumption.
4 O B S E RVAT I O N A L S U RV E Y O F V I RT UA L
M E T E O R AC T I V I T Y
3 P R E D I C T I O N O F V I RT UA L M E T E O R
The observational data for our survey are gathered by CMOR, an in-
S H OW E R S
terferometric backscatter radar system located near London, Canada
Meteor activity is classified into two categories: annual showers, (e.g. Jones et al. 2005; Brown et al. 2008; Weryk & Brown 2012).
which are visible every year at more or less the same time and rate; CMOR consists of one main site equipped with interferometer as
and outbursts, which are enhancements visible in some years but not well as five remote receivers, all of which operate at 29.85 MHz (Ye
others. This divide plainly reflects the evolution of the meteoroid et al. 2013). Orbits of the meteoroids can be derived from the in-
cloud: recently formed meteoroid trails experience little differential terferometry and the time delay for common radar echoes between
effects due to radiation pressure and planetary perturbation, and various stations. Routine and continuous observation commenced
thus tend to remain concentrated in a narrow arc in the orbit and in early 2002. As of early 2016, CMOR has measured ∼13 million
only become visible as meteor outbursts when this ‘knot’ of denser meteor orbits with a corresponding representative meteor magnitude
material impacts the Earth. After some time, differential effects of ∼+7.
gradually stretch the trail along the entire orbit into a meteoroid Meteor showers (outbursts) are defined as an enhancement in
stream, visible as an annual meteor shower every time the Earth meteor rates from a certain celestial point (the radiant) at a certain
arrives at the stream intersection point. Outbursts from young trails speed over a short period of time. The wavelet transform method has
provide clues to the ejection state (epoch, particle ejection speed, been demonstrated as a robust method for shower identification in
etc.) of the trails, such as the case of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle and the radar data (Galligan 2000). Here we perform the survey search using
Leonids (e.g. Yeomans, Yau & Weissman 1996). In contrast, more a quasi-four-dimensional Mexican hat wavelet, with the wavelet
highly evolved streams are useful for the estimation of the age of coefficient ψ(x0 , y0 , v g, 0 ) at celestial coordinate (x0 , y0 ) and speed
the entire stream, such as the case of 109P/Swift-Tuttle and the (v g, 0 ) defined as
Perseids (e.g. Brown & Jones 1998).   
For the prediction of annual showers, we use the simulation re- 1 vg,max ∞ ∞ 
ψ(x0 , y0 , vg,0 ) = 1/2
f x, y, vg
sult obtained in Section 2.2 and calculate the radiants and timing of (2π)3/2 σv vg,min −∞ −∞
the potentially visible meteoroids at the Earth. Results are tabulated 
in Table 1. The values of τ parent and τ stream are also listed in the × 3 − g (x, y, σrad ) − h vg , σv
same table. We find the median τ parent to be 4300 yr, comparable 1 
to the typical time-scale of 100 per cent growth in the positional × exp − g (x, y, σrad ) − h vg , σv
2
uncertainty of a JFC (Tancredi 1995). For individual bodies, τ parent
depends on the dynamical characteristics of the body as well as the × dxdydvg (7)

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3515
Table 1. Objects that are capable to produce CMOR-detectable annual meteor activities. Listed are the properties of the parent (absolute magnitude
H, Tisserand parameter with respect to Jupiter, TJ , Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, MOID, with respect to the Earth, orbital chaotic time-scale
τ parent ), dynamical properties of the hypothetical meteoroid stream (stream age τ stream , encircling time τ enc ), and calculated meteor activities at
ascending node  and/or descending node (including the time of activity in solar longitude λ , radiant in J2000 sun-centred ecliptic coordinates,
λ − λ and β, radiant size σ rad , geocentric speed v g , and meteoroid flux F derived from median JFC model.

Parent Stream
Parent H MOID TJ τ parent τ stream τ enc Node λ λ−λ β σ rad vg FCMOR
(au) (yr) (yr) (yr) (km s−1 ) (km−2 hr−1 )

(3360) Syrinx 15.9 0.108 2.965 5400 4650 500  212◦ ± 2◦ 357◦ +23◦ ±1◦ 24.9 ± 0.3 0.001
(16960) 1998 QS52 14.3 0.015 3.000 >10 000 10 000 100  83◦ ± 1◦ 344◦ −13◦ ±1◦ 30.8 ± 0.1 2.651
(137427) 1999 TF211 15.2 0.020 2.968 5300 550 200  348◦ ± 1◦ 345◦ +81◦ ±1◦ 24.2 ± 0.2 0.002
(139359) 2001 ME1 16.6 0.012 2.674 4900 700 200  92◦ ± 2◦ 191◦ +4◦ ±1◦ 29.9 ± 0.3 0.021
(192642) 1999 RD32 16.3 0.050 2.872 2500 800 100  155◦ ± 3◦ 2◦ −9◦ ±1◦ 22.8 ± 0.6 0.001

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(196256) 2003 EH1 16.2 0.212 2.065 1300 300 200  283◦ ± 1◦ 275◦ +63◦ ±1◦ 41.6 ± 0.2 0.012
(247360) 2001 XU 19.2 0.005 2.749 >10 000 6700 100  262◦ ± 1◦ 191◦ +17◦ ±1◦ 29.1 ± 0.2 0.773
(248590) 2006 CS 16.5 0.105 2.441 2000 1800 200  352◦ ± 1◦ 305◦ −77◦ ±1◦ 30.6 ± 0.4 0.419
(297274) 1996 SK 16.8 0.004 2.968 2200 1250 200  204◦ ± 3◦ 184◦ +2◦ ±1◦ 24.4 ± 0.6 0.009
(307005) 2001 XP1 18.0 0.016 2.560 >10 000 10 000 200  268◦ ± 1◦ 191◦ +50◦ ±1◦ 28.5 ± 0.0 0.781
(399457) 2002 PD43 19.1 0.029 2.439 >10 000 300 300  130◦ ± 3◦ 334◦ −8◦ ±1◦ 39.1 ± 0.6 0.002
(401857) 2000 PG3 16.1 0.210 2.550 3200 2150 100  176◦ ± 2◦ 192◦ −12◦ ±1◦ 30.2 ± 0.3 0.006
(436329) 2010 GX62 20.1 0.014 2.756 >10 000 600 200  25◦ ± 2◦ 19◦ −50◦ ±2◦ 18.7 ± 0.3 0.003
(442037) 2010 PR66 19.3 0.002 2.818 2800 1200 200  114◦ ± 4◦ 25◦ −40◦ ±4◦ 16.4 ± 0.2 0.001
(451124) 2009 KC3 18.0 0.006 2.728 4300 900 700  162◦ ± 2◦ 46◦ −31◦ ±2◦ 12.6 ± 0.3 0.001
1999 LT1 17.6 0.095 2.586 2100 1800 200  67◦ ± 1◦ 343◦ +78◦ ±1◦ 25.9 ± 0.5 0.544
2001 HA4 17.7 0.018 2.772 >10 000 4250 200  179◦ ± 2◦ 184◦ −20◦ ±1◦ 25.0 ± 0.2 0.122
– – – – – – –  360◦ ± 2◦ 357◦ +21◦ ±1◦ 24.8 ± 0.3 0.028
2002 EV11 20.0 0.047 3.046 >10 000 6600 150  355◦ ± 3◦ 339◦ −6◦ ±1◦ 33.5 ± 0.6 0.013
2003 BK47 17.8 0.026 2.857 8500 4750 200  133◦ ± 3◦ 169◦ +36◦ ±2 19.5 ± 0.2 0.006
2003 CG11 20.5 0.018 2.900 >10 000 7200 200  134◦ ± 2◦ 1◦ +30◦ ±1◦ 22.9 ± 0.2 0.057
2003 OV 18.3 0.082 2.987 >10 000 6300 100  108◦ ± 4◦ 194◦ −5◦ ±1◦ 30.0 ± 0.8 0.015
– – – – – – –  346◦ ± 4◦ 346◦ +5◦ ±1◦ 29.5 ± 0.9 0.008
2004 BZ74 18.1 0.032 2.369 7900 3750 100  60◦ ± 1◦ 192◦ −11◦ ±1◦ 32.0 ± 0.2 0.044
2004 CK39 19.2 0.068 2.991 >10000 9350 150  197◦ ± 3◦ 348◦ −11◦ ±1◦ 29.1 ± 0.4 0.002
– – – – – – –  334◦ ± 2◦ 191◦ +11◦ ±1◦ 29.1 ± 0.4 0.010
2004 TG10 19.4 0.022 2.992 6600 6100 400  102◦ ± 2◦ 346◦ −3◦ ±1◦ 30.1 ± 0.6 0.094
– – – – – – –  223◦ ± 3◦ 194◦ +3◦ ±1◦ 30.0 ± 0.5 0.065
2005 FH 17.7 0.038 2.821 6200 8100 150  328◦ ± 2◦ 3◦ −58◦ ±2◦ 22.5 ± 0.2 0.012
2005 UN157 18.2 0.420 2.581 6000 3750 200  175◦ ± 2◦ 339◦ −13◦ ±1◦ 36.4 ± 0.4 0.008
– – – – – – –  261◦ ± 3◦ 203◦ +13◦ ±1◦ 36.9 ± 0.5 0.003
2005 WY55 20.7 0.004 3.042 4700 2500 1200  70◦ ± 3◦ 7◦ −12◦ ±1◦ 19.6 ± 0.6 0.012
2006 AL8 18.4 0.056 2.159 2900 7300 100  312◦ ± 2◦ 339◦ +24◦ ±1◦ 36.0 ± 0.4 0.013
2006 KK21 20.4 0.033 2.605 5000 4000 100  51◦ ± 2◦ 347◦ −11◦ ±1◦ 30.5 ± 0.4 0.022
– – – – – – –  180◦ ± 2◦ 192◦ +10◦ ±1◦ 30.2 ± 0.3 0.031
2007 CA19 17.6 0.019 2.679 4300 300 100  354◦ ± 1◦ 185◦ −10◦ ±1◦ 27.1 ± 0.2 0.018
– – – – – – –  190◦ ± 1◦ 355◦ +10◦ ±1◦ 27.0 ± 0.1 0.010
2008 SV11 18.4 0.018 2.957 8400 3300 200  8◦ ± 4◦ 10◦ +15◦ ±3 18.6 ± 0.5 0.005
2008 YZ28 20.0 0.094 2.969 3300 4000 200  270◦ ± 6◦ 358◦ +54◦ ±5 23.8 ± 0.4 0.001
2009 HD21 18.2 0.015 2.881 6900 1400 100  180◦ ± 3◦ 20◦ +41◦ ±3 17.7 ± 0.2 0.005
2009 SG18 17.8 0.025 2.313 8500 9250 200  177◦ ± 1◦ 237◦ +70◦ ±1◦ 34.1 ± 0.3 0.172
2009 WN25 18.4 0.114 1.959 2700 100 400  232◦ ± 1◦ 271◦ +63◦ ±1◦ 41.7 ± 0.1 1.034
2010 JL33 17.7 0.033 2.910 4100 4000 100  250◦ ± 5◦ 10◦ −8◦ ±2◦ 19.0 ± 1.1 0.001
2010 XC11 18.7 0.030 2.792 6400 850 700  282◦ ± 2◦ 192◦ −7◦ ±1◦ 29.9 ± 0.4 0.002
2011 GH3 18.5 0.149 3.020 8600 6850 200  237◦ ± 1◦ 357◦ −9◦ ±1◦ 24.6 ± 0.2 0.011
– – – – – – –  49◦ ± 1◦ 183◦ +9◦ ±1◦ 24.7 ± 0.2 0.013
2011 GN44 18.3 0.009 2.922 >10 000 10 000 200  196◦ ± 1◦ 318◦ −65◦ ±1◦ 32.6 ± 0.1 5.829
2012 BU61 21.3 0.027 2.933 8400 1700 1100  101◦ ± 4◦ 180◦ −6◦ ±1◦ 23.1 ± 0.9 0.002
– – – – – – –  280◦ ± 4◦ 359◦ +6◦ ±1◦ 23.5 ± 1.0 0.001
2012 FZ23 18.2 0.020 2.367 4400 1250 200  359◦ ± 1◦ 269◦ −61◦ ±1◦ 41.7 ± 0.2 0.369
2012 HG8 19.7 0.004 2.967 4000 2800 100  215◦ ± 4◦ 182◦ +36◦ ±3 23.7 ± 0.3 0.013
2012 TO139 19.7 0.001 2.759 4800 300 100  290◦ ± 4◦ 196◦ −4◦ ±1◦ 33.1 ± 0.8 0.001
– – – – – – –  179◦ ± 1◦ 345◦ +3◦ ±1◦ 32.6 ± 0.1 0.196
2015 TB145 19.9 0.002 2.964 >10 000 10 000 100  217◦ ± 1◦ 204◦ −24◦ ±1◦ 34.9 ± 0.2 1.738

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3516 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný
and
(x − x0 )2 + (y − y0 )2
g(x, y, σ ) = (8)
σ2

(vg − vg,0 )2
h(vg , σv ) = , (9)
σv2

where f(x, y, v g ) is the distribution of radiants, σ rad and σ v are the

spatial and speed probe sizes, x, y and v g are spatial coordinates and
speed in the geocentric space of observed radiants.
To enhance the signal from annual weak showers, we follow the
procedure described in Bruzzone et al. (2015) and combine the en-
tire CMOR data set into a stacked virtual year. The data in both

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calendar year and stacked virtual year are divided into 1◦ solar
longitude bins, producing a quasi-four-dimensional data set that is
then analysed using the wavelet technique. The wavelet transform
detects only radiants within roughly one spatial/speed probe size,
as these contribute significantly to the wavelet coefficient. As such,
radiant distributions that match the specified spatial/speed probe
sizes will show enhanced wavelet coefficient. For most showers,
the simulated radiants are very compact such that the spatial/speed
spreads are comparable to or smaller than the CMOR’s measure-
ment uncertainty. For these cases, we use the empirical probe sizes
of 4◦ and 10 per cent adopted by Brown et al. (2008) for shower
detection.
Figure 3. Detection of annual meteor activity that may be associated with
For each shower/outburst, we inspect the variation of ψ(x0 , y0 ,
(196256) 2003 EH1 , 2004 TG10 (both ascending node  and descending
v g, 0 ) as a function of time within the virtual/natural year to search node ), 2009 WN25 and 2012 BU61 (both ascending node  and descending
for enhancements. Positive detections behave as a rise in ψ(x0 , y0 , node ). Activity peaks are highlighted by arrows. The figures show the
v g, 0 ) that is well above the background noise (e.g. Brown et al. relative wavelet coefficients at radiants given in each graph in units of the
2010, fig. 1). numbers of standard deviations above the annual median.

as of 2016 May.4 Therefore, it is not sufficient to propose a linkage

5 R E S U LT S A N D D I S C U S S I O N by simply noting the similarity of the respective orbits. Instead,
following the exploration by Wiegert & Brown (2004), we evaluate
5.1 Annual showers from old streams the following question to establish orbital similarity significance:
Among the 44 virtual streams predicted to be detectable by CMOR, consider the DSH parameter between the proposed parent-shower
we identify four probable positive detections in the stacked CMOR pair to be D0 , what is the expected number of parent bodies X
data that can be associated with (196256) 2003 EH1 , 2004 TG10 , that have orbits such that D < D0 (where D is the DSH parameter
2009 WN25 and 2012 BU61 , as shown in Fig. 3. Among these between the ‘new’ parent and the shower)?
associations, two are considered established: (196256) 2003 EH1 to This question can be answered using a NEO population model
the Quadrantids (e.g. Jenniskens 2004; Abedin et al. 2015) and 2004 providing the orbits of the possible parent and the meteoroid stream
TG10 as part of the Taurid complex (e.g. Jenniskens 2006; Porubčan are well known. We employ the de-biased NEO model developed
et al. 2006); one is recently proposed: 2009 WN25 to the November by Greenstreet, Ngo & Gladman (2012) and generate two synthetic
i Draconids (Micheli, Tholen & Jenniskens 2016). For all these NEO populations down to absolute magnitude H = 18 and 22
three cases, the predicted shower characteristics are consistent with following α = 0.35 for H < 18 and α = 0.26 for 18 < H < 22
the observations, except for the activity duration of the November (where α is the size distribution index of the NEO population; see
i Draconids – 2009 WN25 pair. The predicted duration is about Jedicke et al. 2015). Orbits of the meteoroid streams of interest
1 d, while the observed activity lasted for ∼20 d (Brown et al. are calculated from the respective wavelet maxima as found in
2010). This simply reflects that we assume the operational stream the CMOR data. The ascending nodal activity for 2012 BU61 is
age τ stream = 100 yr while the actual stream might be much older heavily contaminated by sporadic activity later in the year (λ ∼
(and thus more dispersed). One node of the detection associated with 240◦ ) which prevents useful orbits to be obtained. This procedure
2012 BU61 is identified with the Daytime ξ Sagittariids (descending is repeated for the proposed linkages of November i Draconids –
node), which in turn has been previously associated with 2002 AU5 2009 WN25 and Daytime ξ Sagittariid – 2002 AU5 and 2012 BU61 .
(Brown et al. 2010), though the linkage is not considered well- The results are summarized in Table 2.
established. The ascending nodal intersection for 2012 BU61 cannot We observe the following.
be identified with any known showers, but does show detectable
enhancement as shown in Fig. 3.
A complicating issue in the parent-shower linkage is the likeli- 4 http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpc/summary and http://www.astro.
hood of chance alignment. This is especially true as there are over amu.edu.pl/∼jopek/MDC2007/Roje/roje_lista.php?corobic_roje=0&
14 000 known NEOs and ∼700 identified/proposed meteor showers sort_roje=0, retrieved 2016 May 7. See also Jopek & Kanuchova (2014).

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3517
Table 2. Orbits and radiant characteristics of the possible meteor activity associated with 2009 WN25 and 2012 BU61 . Listed are perihelion distance q,
eccentricity e, inclination i, longitude of ascending node  and argument of perihelion ω for the parent (taken from JPL 31, 28 and 15 for the respective
parent) and the meteor shower from the given reference. The uncertainties in the orbital elements for the parents are typically in the order of 10−5 –10−8 in
their respective units and are not shown. Epochs are in J2000. Shown are the absolute magnitude of the parent as well as the expected number of NEOs with
H < 18 and H < 22 which are expected to have D < D0 relative to that of the proposed parent. Values of X near or larger than 1 suggest that the association
is not statistically significant.

Orbital elements (J2000) Geocentric radiant (J2000) X

q e i  ω λ−λ β vg H < 18 H < 22
(au) (km s−1 )

2009 WN25 (H = 18.4) – November i Draconids

2009 WN25 1.102 38 0.662 78 71.◦ 986 232.◦ 086 180.◦ 910 271◦ +63◦ 41.7
±1◦ ±1◦ ±0.1
Shower prediction – this work 0.987 0.619 73.◦ 6 238.◦ 0 184.◦ 6 267.6 +62.◦ 0 41.4 0.001–0.05 0.02–0.6
7◦ ± 2.◦ 3 ±0.◦ 5 ±2.◦ 9 ±0.1◦ ±0.◦ 1

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±0.002 ±0.133 ±0.1
Observed shower – Brown 0.9874 0.737 74.◦ 9 241.◦ 0 181.◦ 09 270.◦ 1 +62.◦ 5 43 0.003 0.04
et al. (2010)
Observed shower – 0.973 0.734 72.◦ 9 254.◦ 4 194.◦ 7 260.◦ 9 +63.◦ 2 41.9 0.4 6
Jenniskens et al. (2016)
2002 AU5 (H = 17.8) & 2012 BU61 (H = 21.5) – Daytime ξ Sagittariids (XSA) and Daytime Scutids (JSC)
2002 AU5 0.403 01 0.755 31 9.◦ 256 354.◦ 989 21.◦ 261 359◦ +6◦ 23.5
±1◦ ±1◦ ±1.0
2012 BU61 0.553 33 0.780 23 5.◦ 277 297.◦ 700 72.◦ 461 359◦ +6◦ 23.5
±1◦ ±1◦ ±1.0
XSA prediction – this work 0.46 0.77 5.◦ 9 291.◦ 0 76.◦ 6 352.◦ 6 +6.◦ 4 25.2 AU5 : 0.8–1.2 AU5 : 10–15
±0.02 ±0.04 ±1.◦ 0 ±0.◦ 5 ±2.◦ 1 ±0.◦ 1 ±0.◦ 1 ±0.1 BU61 : BU61 : 0.6–2
0.05–0.2
XSA observation – Sekanina 0.29 0.74 1.◦ 1 304.◦ 9 46.◦ 9 338.◦ 0 +0.◦ 9 24.4 AU5 : 12–13 AU5 : 156–164
(1976)
±0.01 ±0.02 ±0.◦ 7 ±1.◦ 4 ±1.◦ 8 ±1.◦ 0 ±0.◦ 6 BU61 : 8–10 BU61 :
101–126
XSA observation – Brown 0.4708 0.784 6.◦ 0 288.◦ 0 79.◦ 31 353.◦ 9 +6.◦ 6 25.3 AU5 : 1.0 AU5 : 13
et al. (2010)
BU61 : 0.04 BU61 : 0.6
JSC observation – Sekanina 0.55 0.77 12.◦ 4 280.◦ 4 89.◦ 4 358.◦ 5 +15.◦ 4 24.1 AU5 : 1.8–2.3 AU5 : 23–29
(1973)
±0.01 ±0.02 ±1.◦ 4 ±0.◦ 5 ±1.◦ 1 ±0.◦ 4 ±1.◦ 8 BU61 : BU61 : 0.3–4
0.05–0.3

(i) The statistical model supports 2009 WN25 as the likely parent 2012 BU61 , are sub-kilometre bodies. Since sub-kilometre comets
for the November i Draconids. are effectively eliminated by rotational disruption (Rubincam 2000;
(ii) The case of 2012 BU61 and the Daytime ξ Sagittariids is Taylor et al. 2007; Jewitt et al. 2010), we think that these four bodies
complicated. The orbits derived from this work and Brown et al. are likely larger fragments from previous break-ups. In fact, 2004
(2010) is notably different from the one initially proposed in the TG10 is generally recognized as being part of the Taurid complex
Harvard Radio Meteor Project (Sekanina 1976, listed as ξ Sagittari- (Porubčan et al. 2006), while the November i Draconid streams
ids, though the IAU catalogue has identified it as the same shower) (which 2009 WN25 is linked to) has been considered to be associated
which has DSH = 0.28, though this work and Brown et al. (2010) with the Quadrantid stream (Brown et al. 2010).
use virtually the same data. The Daytime ξ Sagittariids has not In addition to the positive detections, we have not reproduced
been reported by a third observing system. However, we note that a number of previously proposed associations. Our initial shortlist
the Daytime Scutids, another unestablished shower reported by the included most of the objects in earlier proposed associations except
Harvard survey, resembles the orbit of the Daytime ξ Sagittariids objects with short orbital arc (i.e. low orbit quality). The calculation
observed by CMOR (see Sekanina 1973, the orbit of Daytime Scu- of X is repeated for every proposed association. As shown in
tids is appended in Table 2), with DSH = 0.15. We suspect that two Table 3, only 8 out of 32 previously proposed associations have
different showers have been accidentally assigned the same name. X  1:
The association with 2012 BU61 would be statistically significant,
either using the CMOR orbit or the Harvard orbit for the Daytime
Scutids. (i) Corvids – (374038) 2004 HW. Linkage first proposed by Jen-
(iii) The linkage between 2002 AU5 and Daytime ξ Sagittariids niskens (2006). The Corvid meteor shower is one of the slowest
or Daytime Scutids is not statistically significant. known meteor showers, with v g = 9 km s−1 . It was only observed
in 1937 (Hoffmeister 1948) until being recently recovered by Jen-
We note that among the four parent-shower associations found niskens et al. (2016) and has not been detected by many radar
by our survey, three parents, namely 2004 TG10 , 2009 WN25 and and photographic surveys. The Corvids are undetected by CMOR,

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3518 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný
Table 3. Previously proposed associations that are not reproduced in this work. Only objects that are in our initial 407-object
list are included. ‘Established showers’ means confirmed meteor showers in the IAU catalogue, not established parent-shower
linkages (likewise for unestablished showers). Listed are the absolute magnitude of the parent H, sources where the linkage was
proposed, orbital elements, and X for the NEO population of H < 18 and H < 22.

Shower Proposed parent H Reference X H<18 X H<22

Established showers:
Corvids (14827) Hypnos 18.3 O87, J16, JPL 49 1.4 18
– (374038) 2004 HW 17.0 Je06, J16, JPL 60 0.1 1.4
Daytime April Piscids 2003 MT9 18.6 B09, B10, JPL 37 0.9 11
– (401857) 2000 PG3 a 16.1 B09, B10, JPL 43 34 432
– 2002 JC9 a 18.5 B09, B10, JPL 26 10 121
κ Cygnids (153311) 2001 MG1 17.2 Jo06, J16, JPL 63 0.8 10
– (361861) 2008 ED69 17.0 J08, J16, JPL 36 1.7 21

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Northern ι Aquariids 2003 MT9 18.6 B09, J16, JPL 37 9 114
ψ Cassiopeiids (5496) 1973 NA 16.0 P92, J16, JPL 51 0.2 1.9
Unestablished showers:
66 Draconids 2001 XQ 19.2 S14a, JPL 14 0.003 0.04
August θ Aquillids 2004 MB6 19.5 K14, K15, JPL 17 16 203
Daytime April Cetids 2003 MT9 18.6 K67, B09, JPL 37 0.6 8
Daytime c Aquariids (206910) 2004 NL8 17.1 G75, Je06, JPL 108 7 89
Daytime δ Scorpiids 2003 HP32 b 19.6 N64, B15, JPL 17 0.6 8
– 2007 WY3 b 18.2 N64, B15, JPL 18 6 75
δ Mensids (248590) 2006 CS 16.5 Je06, JPL 48 0.001 0.02
η Virginids 2007 CA19 17.6 B15, J16, JPL 56 3.3 42
γ Piscids 6344 P-L 20.4 T89, Je06, JPL 16 51 648
γ Triangulids 2002 GZ8 18.2 P94, Je06, JPL 33 3.1 39
ι Cygnids 2001 SS287 18.3 A13, JPL 21 0.1 1.2
κ Cepheids 2009 SG18 17.8 S15, JPL 22 0.0004 0.006
λ Cygnids (189263) 2005 CA 15.6 T89, Je06, JPL 51 15 185
Northern δ Leonids (192642) 1999 RD32 16.3 L71, Je06, JPL 125 0.7 9
Northern δ Piscids (401857) 2000 PG3 a 16.1 B09, J16, JPL 43 24 302
– 2002 JC9 a 18.5 B09, J16, JPL 26 8 107
Northern γ Virginids 2002 FC 18.9 T89, Je06, JPL 52 0.2 2.2
Northern σ Sagittariidsc (139359) 2001 ME1 16.6 S76, Je06, JPL 71 2.3 29
Southern α Leonids (172678) 2003 YM137 18.7 Je06, JPL 51 13 166
Southern δ Piscids (401857) 2000 PG3 a 16.1 B09, J16, JPL 43 15 195
– 2002 JC9 a 18.5 B09, J16, JPL 26 20 251
Southern ι Aquariids 2003 MT9 18.6 B08, B09, JPL 37 0.6 7
ζ 1 Cancrids 2012 TO139 19.7 S14b, JPL 13 0.08 1.0
Notes. – Abbreviation of references: A13 – Andreić et al. (2013); B08 – Brown et al. (2008); B09 – Babadzhanov, Williams
& Kokhirova (2009); B10 – Brown et al. (2010); B15 – Babadzhanov, Kokhirova & Obrubov (2015); G75 – Gartrell & Elford
(1975); Je06 – Jenniskens (2006); Jo06 – Jones, Williams & Porubčan (2006); J08 – Jenniskens (2008); J16 – Jenniskens et al.
(2016); K14 – Kornoš et al. (2014); K15 – Kokhirova & Babadzhanov (2015); K67 – Kashcheyev & Lebedinets (1967); L71
– Lindblad (1971); N64 – Nilsson (1964); O87 – Olsson-Steel (1987); P92 – Porubcan et al. (1992); Porubcan & Gavajdova
(1994); S14a – Šegon et al. (2014b); S14b – Šegon et al. (2014b); S76 – Sekanina (1976); T89 – Terentjeva (1989).
Notes. a Objects/streams thought be belonged to the same complex.
b Objects/streams thought be belonged to the same complex.
c Called σ Carpricornids in Sekanina (1976).

which is unsurprising as back-scatter radars are insensitive to very linkage. Our survey wavelet analysis at the reported radiant of the
slow meteors. 66 Draconids did not detect any enhancement.
(ii) ψ Cassiopeiids – (5496) 1973 NA. Linkage first proposed by (iv) δ Mensids – (248590) 2006 CS. Linkage first proposed by
Porubcan, Stohl & Vana (1992). The object is not included in Table 1 Jenniskens (2006). The unconfirmed shower is only accessible by
due to low expected flux being below the CMOR detection limit. observers in the Southern hemisphere.
Our test simulation shows that only a small fraction (<0.1 per cent) (v) ι Cygnids – 2001 SS287 . Linkage first proposed by Andreić
of sub-millimeter-sized meteoroids (∼0.1 mm) released in the past et al. (2013) who remains the only observer of this unconfirmed
1000 yr would be arriving at the Earth’s orbit. The fact that the shower at the time of writing. No enhancement is seen in the CMOR
meteor shower is detectable by video techniques (which only de- wavelet analysis at the reported radiant.
tect larger, millimeter-sized meteoroids) is incompatible with the (vi) κ Cepheids – 2009 SG18 . Shower discovered by Šegon et al.
modelling result. (2015) who also propose the linkage. The predicted radiant is con-
(iii) 66 Draconids – 2001 XQ. The unconfirmed shower has sistent with the reported radiant of κ Cepheids. The meteoroid
only been reported by Šegon et al. (2014b) who also propose the speed is favourable for radar detection (v g = 34 km s−1 ) and a

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3519
Table 4. Predicted meteor outbursts from virtual young meteoroid trails from the shower parents. Shown are the age of the trail, period
of expected activity (in date and solar longitude, λ , rounded to the nearest 1◦ solar longitude), radiant (in J2000 sun-centred ecliptic
coordinates, λ − λ and β), geocentric speed (v g ), and estimated meteoroid flux derived from median JFC model.

Parent τ enc Date Ejection λ λ−λ β vg FCMOR

(yr) (UT) (km s−1 ) (hr−1 km−2 )

(139359) 2001 ME1 200 2006 June 24 1924–1967 93◦ 191◦ +4◦ 30.0 0.01
(247360) 2001 XU 100 2014 December 14 1903–1993 263◦ 190◦ +17◦ 29.1 0.02
(297274) 1996 SK 200 2007 April 17 1870–1903 27◦ 2◦ −3◦ 21.5 0.01
(435159) 2007 LQ19 200 2002 July 13 1801–1978 111◦ 139◦ +50◦ 14.1 0.01
– – 2006 July 13 1801–2003 111◦ 139◦ +50◦ 14.1 0.03
– – 2007 July 13 1805–2003 111◦ 139◦ +50◦ 14.1 0.04
2001 HA4 200 2005 September 21 1807–1974 179◦ 184◦ −20◦ 24.5 2.71
2005 WY55 1200 2002 May 31† 994–1765 70◦ 8◦ −12◦ 19.3 0.16

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– – 2006 May 31‡ 990–1753 70◦ 7◦ −12◦ 19.5 0.14
– – 2010 May 31 875–1761 70◦ 8◦ −12◦ 19.4 0.06
– – 2014 May 31 951–1725 70◦ 7◦ −12◦ 19.5 0.05
2007 CA19 100 2012 March 14 1965–1993 354◦ 185◦ −10◦ 27.1 0.42
2009 SG18 200 2006 September 20 1831–1852 178◦ 238◦ +70◦ 34.1 0.01
– – 2015 September 21 1920–1931 178◦ 239◦ +70◦ 34.3 0.01
2012 BU61 1100 2007 June 29 1500–1788 97◦ 181◦ −6◦ 23.9 0.05
2012 TO139 100 2012 September 21 1954–2008 179◦ 345◦ +4◦ 32.6 16.62
2015 TB145 100 2003 October 31 1902–1997 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.9 12.62
– – 2004 October 31 1908–1979 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 35.0 0.01
– – 2006 October 31 1902–2000 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.9 23.54
– – 2009 October 31 1902–2006 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.9 42.86
– – 2010 October 31‡ 1905–1991 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.9 0.14
– – 2012 October 31 1930–2009 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.8 10.95
– – 2013 October 31 1902–1982 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.9 0.10
– – 2014 October 31 1911–1960 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 35.0 0.01
– – 2015 October 31 1905–2015 218◦ 204◦ −24◦ 34.9 9.42
Notes. † CMOR not operational during the day.
‡ CMOR partially operational during the day.

relatively strong flux is predicted (F = 0.22 km−2 h−1 ), however, no statistical significance, as X H<18 ∼ 0.01. From the wavelet pro-
enhancement is seen in the wavelet analysis at either the predicted file, we estimate that the observed flux is close to the detection
or the reported radiant. threshold or ∼10−2 km−2 h−1 , as the signal is not very significantly
(vii) Northern γ Virginids – 2002 FC. Linkage proposed by Jen- higher than the background fluctuation. The event, if indeed as-
niskens (2006). This unestablished shower has only been reported sociated with (139359) 2001 ME1 , should have originated from a
by Terentjeva (1989) who analysed photographic fireball observa- relatively recent (<100 yr) ejection event. Since the observed flux
tions from 1963 to 1984. No enhancement is seen in wavelet analysis is about the same order as the model prediction, it can be estimated
of the CMOR data at the reported radiant. that the dust production associated with the ejection is compa-
(viii) ζ 1 Cancrids – 2012 TO139 . Shower detection as well as rable to the average dust production of known near-Earth JFCs.
potential linkage are both identified by Šegon et al. (2014b). No Curiously, the annual shower associated with (139359) 2001 ME1 ,
enhancement is seen in the CMOR wavelet analysis at the pre- though with a moderate expected flux, is not detected. This may
dicted radiant. Also, the model predicts a stronger descending nodal suggest that the ejection was a transient event rather than a pro-
shower which is also not seen in CMOR data. longed one, possibly similar to the activity of 107P/(4015) Wilson–
Harrington upon its discovery in 1949 (cf. Fernández et al. 1997).
It should be emphasized that the statistical test only addresses the
Another interesting aspect of our survey is the negative detection
likelihood of finding a better parent body match for a given stream
of several strong predicted events (with FCMOR  1 km−2 hr−1 ).
orbit; it does not take into account the false positives in shower
These can be used to place a tight constraint on the past dust pro-
identification, a complicated issue heavily investigated for half a
duction of the parent. It can be concluded that the dust production
century (e.g. Southworth & Hawkins 1963; Drummond 1981; Gal-
of 2001 HA4 , 2012 TO139 and 2015 TB145 are either at least 2 mag
ligan 2001; Brown et al. 2008; Moorhead 2016, and many others).
lower than the median near-Earth JFC model or have a much steeper
There exists a danger of assigning a small body as the ‘parent’ of
dust size distribution than we assume.
some random fluctuation in the meteoroid background. This is es-
pecially true for unestablished showers, as most of them have been
observed by only one observer.
5.3 Discussion

5.2 Outbursts from young trails With the results discussed above, we now revisit the population
statistics of the dormant comets. We first consider the number of
Among the predictions given in Table 4, only one prediction is as- streams detectable by CMOR, NCMOR , to be expressed as
sociated with a distinct detection: the event from (139359) 2001
ME1 in 2006 (Fig. 4, 5 and Table 5). The association is of high NCMOR = Ndc · ηNEACO · ηshr · ηCMOR , (10)

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3520 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný

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Figure 4. Possible activity from (139359) 2001 ME1 on 2006 June 24 in sun-centred ecliptic sphere. Darker contour corresponds to areas in the sky with
denser radiants. Known showers are marked by dark circles and the International Astronomical Union (IAU) shower designation (ARI = Arietids, NZC =
Northern June Aquilids, MIC = Microscopiids). Unknown enhancements are marked by grey circles. Note that most enhancements are random fluctuations.
The possible activity associated with (139359) 2001 ME1 is the strong enhancement near λ − λ = 190◦ , β = +5◦ .

above, we have NCMOR = 2 for H < 18 population and NCMOR = 4

for H < 22 population. For the remaining three coefficients, we
have the folllowing.

(i) For ηNEACO , we obtain the true (de-biased) number of NEA-

COs by using Greenstreet et al. (2012)’s NEO population model and
incorporate the population statistics from Stuart (2001), Mainzer
et al. (2011) and Jedicke et al. (2015). We derive NNEACO =
200 ± 30 for H < 18 and 2100 ± 300 for H < 22. Considering
that we have selected 407 NEACOs in our initial sample, of which
199 are bodies with H < 18, we obtain ηNEACO = 1+0.00 −0.13 for H < 18
and ηNEACO = 0.19+0.03 −0.02 for H < 22.
Figure 5. Variation of the wavelet coefficient at λ − λ = 191◦ , β = +4◦
and v g = 30.0 km s−1 in 2002–2015 (grey lines except for 2006). Possible
(ii) For ηshr , we have 44 hypothetical showers as listed in Table 1,
activity from (139359) 2001 ME1 in 2006 is marked by an arrow. Recurring among which 15 are from H < 18 bodies. This yields ηshr ∼ 0.1.
activity around λ = 220◦ is from the Taurids complex in November. (iii) For ηCMOR , we exclude the meteoroid streams whose are
either too slow for reliable radar detection (v g < 15 km s−1 Weryk
& Brown 2013) or have radiants too far south for CMOR to detect
where Ndc is the true (de-biased) number of dormant comets in
(β < −30◦ ). This leaves 36 streams in Table 1, including 14 origi-
the NEACO population, ηNEACO is the detection efficiency of the
nating from H < 18 bodies. This translates to ηCMOR ∼ 0.8.
NEACOs (i.e. the number of known NEACOs divided by the num-
ber of total NEACOs predicted by NEO population model), ηshr With all these numbers, we obtain Ndc = 25 ± 21 for H < 18
is the selection efficiency of NEACOs that produce visible meteor population and Ndc = 263 ± 173 for H < 22 population, with un-
showers (i.e. the number of shower producing NEACOs divided by certainties derived by error propagation. This translates to a fraction
the total number of NEACOs), and ηCMOR is the detection efficiency of ∼10 per cent of dormant comets in the NEACO population inde-
of CMOR (i.e. the number of total virtual showers observable by pendent of size. Assuming dormant comets in asteroidal orbits (i.e.
CMOR divided by the total number of virtual showers visible at the TJ > 3 bodies) are negligible, we further derive a dormant comet
Earth). Rearranging the terms, we have fraction of 2.0 ± 1.7 per cent for the entire NEO population, which
Ndc = NCMOR · (ηNEACO · ηshr · ηCMOR )−1 . (11) should be considered as a lower limit. This number is at the low
end of previous estimates by Bottke et al. (2002), Fernández et al.
We focus on annual shower detection in the following as the (2005) and Mommert et al. (2015) who give ranges of 2–14 per cent.
statistics for outburst detection (only 1) is too low. As presented It should be noted that all these authors also assume that dormant

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3521
Table 5. Orbits and radiant characteristics of the possible meteor activity associated with (139359) 2001 ME1 .
Listed are perihelion distance q, eccentricity e, inclination i, longitude of ascending node  and argument of
perihelion ω for the parent (taken from JPL 71) and the meteor outburst in 2006 (derived from the corresponding
wavelet maximum). The uncertainties in the orbital elements for the parents are typically in the order of 10−5 –10−8
in their respective units and are not shown. Epochs are in J2000.

Orbital elements (J2000) Geocentric radiant (J2000) X

q e i  ω λ−λ β vg H < 18 H < 22
(au) (km s−1 )

(139359) 2001 ME1 0.355 12 0.865 98 5.◦ 796 86.◦ 506 300.◦ 254 191◦ +4◦ 30.0
±1◦ ±1◦ ±0.1
2006 outburst 0.32 0.87 4.◦ 7 93.◦ 0 298.◦ 8 193. 0 +3.◦ 5
◦ 30.5 0.01–0.02 0.1–0.3
±0.02 ±0.03 ±1.◦ 4 ±0.◦ 5 ±2.◦ 2◦ ±0.◦ 5 ±0.◦ 5 ±0.5

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comets in asteroidal orbits are negligible during the derivation of Finally, we compare our list against the dormant comet candidates
the dormant comet fraction. proposed in previous works. The largest list of dormant candidates
There are two caveats in our work that may lead to an underes- to-date is published by Tancredi (2014) and includes 203 objects
timation of the dormant comet fraction. Since we used the median that resemble JFC orbits and match a set of restrictive criteria. Ac-
of the dust production of known JFCs to feed the meteoroid flux cording to our simulations, only 3 of these 203 objects have the
model, if the actual JFC dust production is in fact lower, our treat- potential of producing CMOR-detectable activity [(196256) 2003
ment will lead to an overestimation of the number of visible showers, EH1 , 1999 LT1 , and 2004 BZ74 ; note that not all of the objects are in
which will in turn reduce the derived dormant comet fraction. For our initial shortlist, as Tancredi’s list has a more relaxed constraint
a dormant comet fraction of ∼8 per cent, we need to reduce ηshr on orbital precision], and only one out of the seven objects has a de-
by a factor of 8 per cent/2 per cent = 4, equivalent to using a dust tectable shower [(196256) 2003 EH1 ]. Kim, Ishiguro & Usui (2014)
production model that is 10 times lower than the current median compiled a list of 123 NEACOs and have thermal observations, 29
model. This is qualitatively consistent with the recent trend that of which overlap with Tancredi’s list. Among these, three have the
more weakly active comets are being discovered as more sensitive potential of producing CMOR-detectable activity [(307005) 2001
NEO surveys become operational. Another caveat is that the actual XP1 , 2001 HA4 , and 2010 JL33 ] but none of them has detectable
dust size distribution q may be different than what is used in the shower. DeMeo & Binzel (2008) analysed spectra of 49 NEOs that
dust model. A steeper size distribution will result in a proportion- resemble cometary orbits (excluding six objects that have been later
ally larger number of smaller meteoroids, making the stream more identified as comets), 6 of which may produce CMOR-detectable
dispersed and hence more difficult to be detected. This hypothesis is activity [(3360) Syrinx, (16960) 1998 QS52 , (137427) 1999 TF211 ,
not supported by reported cometary observations which are found to (139359) 2001 ME1 , (401857) 2000 PG3 and 1999 LT1 ], only one
have q ∼ 3.6 at μm-range sizes (e.g. Fulle 2004), but a discrepancy of them produces a detectable shower, (139359) 2001 ME1 , which
between millimeter to sub-millimeter-sized meteoroids is possible, they reported an albedo of 0.04 and classified as a P-type asteroid.
such as the case of 21P/Giacobini-Zinner and the Draconids (Ye Other works (see Mommert et al. 2015; Licandro et al. 2016, and
et al. 2014). the references therein) have reported smaller samples consisting of
Another fundamental question is, are dormant comets in as- the same objects already discussed that may produce showers from
teroidal orbits really negligible? There is at least one prominent our simulations. Each author has selected a somewhat different set
counter-example: (3200) Phaethon (TJ = 4.508). Phaethon is asso- of candidates, but there are several objects that are selected by more
ciated with the Geminid meteor shower and still possesses some than one author, including (248590) 2006 CS (which is the possible
outgassing activity at perihelion (e.g. Jewitt & Li 2010). Neverthe- parent of δ Mensid meteor shower), (394130) 2006 HY51 , (436329)
less, the fact that we do not see a lot of active NEAs suggests that 2010 GX62 , (451124) 2009 KC3 , 1999 LT1 , 2001 HA4 and 2010
such objects may not be very common. JL33 , none of which [except for (248590) 2006 CS, (436329) 2010
Taking the median dynamical lifetime of near-Earth JFCs to be GX62 , (451124) 2009 KC3 which produce southerly radiants that
a few 103 yr, the derived dormancy rate translates to a dormancy are difficult to detect for CMOR] has detectable meteor activity. On
probability of ∼10−5 yr−1 per comet independent of sizes. This is the other hand, the remaining three objects with detected showers
consistent with previous model predictions, and about 5–40 times (2004 TG10 , 2009 WN25 and 2012 BU61 ) are not selected by any of
lower than the disruption probability (Fernández et al. 2002; Belton the surveys largely due to the lack of astrometric/physical observa-
2014). This result echoes earlier suggestions that near-Earth JFCs tions, though the most recent NEOWISE catalogue release includes
are more likely to be disrupted rather than achieving dormancy the measurement for 2004 TG10 (Nugent et al. 2015).
(Belton 2014). Since the typical time-scale for JFC disruption,
a JFC’s dynamical lifetime in the NEO region, and dispersion
6 CONCLUSION
lifetime for a resulting meteoroid stream are all at the same order
(a few 103 yr), there should exist a significant number of meteoroid We conducted a direct survey for dormant comets in the ACO
streams with parents that are either disrupted or have been dynam- component in the NEO population. This was done by looking for
ically removed, such that no parent can be found, supporting the meteor activity originated from each of the 407 NEOs as predicted
speculation of Jenniskens & Vaubaillon (2010) that many meteoroid by meteoroid stream models. This sample represents ∼80 per cent
streams are produced from disrupted comets. Since disruption and and ∼46 per cent of known NEOs in JFC-like orbits in the H < 18
dynamical removal are competing mechanisms to eliminate JFCs and H < 22 population, respectively.
from the NEO region, it may be difficult to investigate the formation To look for the virtual meteoroid streams predicted by the model,
of these ‘orphan’ streams in the absence of an observable parent. we analysed 13 567 542 meteoroid orbits measured by the CMOR

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3522 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný
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MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3524 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný
rate of 7 × 1014 particles per orbit assuming an active time per orbit
of ∼1 yr.

A P P E N D I X B : R A D I A N T S , AC T I V I T Y
P RO F I L E S A N D D U S T S I Z E D I S T R I B U T I O N S
O F P R E D I C T E D V I RT UA L S H OW E R S

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Figure B2. Same as Fig. B1.

Figure B1. For each object, there are three panels: radiants (upper panel; in
J2000 geocentric sun-centred ecliptic coordinates), activity profiles (middle
panel; arbitrary number versus solar longitudes), and dust size distribu-
tion (lower panel; arbitrary number versus dust size in metres in logarithm
scale) of the predicted virtual meteor showers of the listed bodies. Coloured
dots/filled bars represent CMOR-detectable meteoroids, while the rest rep-
resent all meteoroids in the size ranges of [10−4 , 10−1 ] m following a single
power law of s = 3.6.

Figure B3. Same as Fig. B1.

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3525

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Figure B4. Same as Fig. B1.
Figure B6. Same as Fig. B1.

Figure B5. Same as Fig. B1.

Figure B7. Same as Fig. B1.

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

3526 Q.-Z. Ye, P. G. Brown and P. Pokorný

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Figure B8. Same as Fig. B1.
Figure B10. Same as Fig. B1.

Figure B9. Same as Fig. B1. Figure B11. Same as Fig. B1.

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)

 Dormant comets among the NEO population 3527

Figure B14. Same as Fig. B1.

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Figure B12. Same as Fig. B1.

Figure B13. Same as Fig. B1. This paper has been typeset from a TEX/LATEX file prepared by the author.

MNRAS 462, 3511–3527 (2016)