The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural

Communities: Evidence from Pakistan

Ali Jamshed, Joern Birkmann, Joanna M. McMillan, Irfan Ahmad Rana
and Hannes Lauer

Abstract This chapter studies impacts of flood events on the livelihoods of rural
communities in Pakistan. It explores the adverse effects of extreme flooding, as well
as how communities learn and adapt their livelihoods in the wake of such events.
Three flood-affected districts in the province of Punjab were selected as case study
areas. A household survey was conducted and analyzed by using descriptive statis-
tics. The results suggest that various livelihood assets were adversely impacted by
flooding. The most significant impact was the loss of assets in farming communi-
ties. The impact of floods has led to several changes in the communities—notably,
households changed how they make a living and their relationship with the nearest
major city. Other changes include changes in construction techniques and a range
of behavioural changes. Differences among communities were found, particularly in
how they responded to flood events. It was observed that rural communities near large
city more rapidly adopt changes that make them better adapted to future flooding as
they have access to more avenues for livelihood diversification and more services,
as well as better and more innovative markets. Observing and understanding these
changes that the surveyed rural households made in response to flooding, is an impor-
tant contribution to understanding how communities can adapt to extreme events and
how this adaptation can be supported.

A. Jamshed (B) · J. Birkmann · J. M. McMillan · H. Lauer

Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 7
(3rd Floor), 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
e-mail: ali.jamshed@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de
J. Birkmann
e-mail: joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de
J. M. McMillan
e-mail: joanna.mcmillan@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de
H. Lauer
e-mail: hannes.lauer@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de
I. A. Rana
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, National University of Science and Technology
Islamabad (NUST), Main Campus, H-12 Sector, Islamabad, Pakistan
e-mail: iarana@nit.nust.edu.pk

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 585

W. Leal Filho et al. (eds.), Climate Change, Hazards and Adaptation Options,
Climate Change Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_30
586 A. Jamshed et al.

Introduction

Climate extreme events, especially in the form of hydro-metrological disasters, have

wreaked havoc around the world and in Pakistan. Fluvial flooding is the most common
and damaging of all natural hazards (IPCC 2012; Kinoshita et al. 2018) and are in
many areas of the world becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change
(Kundzewicz et al. 2013; Jongman et al. 2018). Floods have caused widespread
loss of life as well as economic losses and physical damages. Between 1980 and
2016, total direct damages worldwide due to flooding exceeded 1.6 trillion USD,
and at least 225,000 people lost their lives (EM-DAT 2018). Winsemius et al. (2016)
indicate that damages from fluvial flooding could be 20 times greater by the end
of this century. Furthermore, Bilak et al. (2016) contend that flood events were the
primary reason for internal displacement between 2008 and 2016. These increasing
losses due to flooding are not only due to an increase in the frequency and intensity of
the flood hazard, but also the exposure and vulnerability of the population and their
assets to flooding. Exposure to flooding has significantly increased in many areas
(Jongman et al. 2012), which is considered as one of the main drivers of flood risk
(Muis et al. 2015). Asian countries will be severely impacted by this increase in flood
risk (Winsemius et al. 2016; Willner et al. 2018), most probably due to both climate
change and socio-economic development (O’Neill et al. 2014; Winsemius et al. 2016;
Alfieri et al. 2017). The impact of such extreme flood events can bring several formal
and informal changes in the society which can influence their vulnerability and risk
profile (Birkmann et al. 2008). However, the extent of impact and following changes
depends on socio-economic status and physical development of communities and
societies. Limited attention has been paid to study the changes following extreme
flood events.
The impact of flooding can be particularly destructive in developing countries
like Pakistan, due to low levels of flood management, both in urban and rural areas
(Doocy et al. 2013a; Willner et al. 2018). Pakistan, a developing country in South
Asia, is faced with high flood risk due to diverse climatic and hydrological conditions.
According to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), 67 out
of 156 districts are at high flood risk (see Fig. 1). Frequency and intensity of floods
have increased and climate change is considered as one of the main reasons (GoP
2012). According to the Climate Risk Index (CRI), Pakistan is ranked as the 5th most
affected by climate change in 2014. The country’s rank was 6th in 2013, 3rd in 2012
and 2011, 1st in 2010 (Kreft et al. 2016). Willner et al. (2018) contend that Pakistan
is already highly affected and will observe almost a doubling in high-end flood risk
at subnational level.
Pakistan can be divided into three major hydrological landscapes: Indus Basin
(mainly fluvial flooding), Kharan Basin (flash flooding), and Makran Coastal
drainage area (coastal flooding) (Tariq and van de Giesen 2012). Flooding in the
Indus basin has caused major economic and human losses in the past. Indus basin
is very fertile for agriculture and plays a huge part in the country’s economy. As a
result, it is highly populated, and population pressures have led to development in
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 587

Fig. 1 Flood risk map of Pakistan with the spatial distribution of urban centres. Source Own
construct based on NDMA (2012)

floodplains, with no regard to the resulting increase in flood risk due to higher expo-
sure. The government has spent a vast amount on structural engineering works to
counter flood risk but these measures could not prevent large-scale disastrous floods
in recent years (Tariq and van de Giesen 2012). These disastrous floods affected both
rural and urban areas. The few urban areas which were affected quickly recovered
from the flood events, whereas recovery of rural areas was slow due to lower socioe-
conomic, physical and institutional capacities (Kirsch et al. 2012). This supports the
assumption that the impacts of extreme events are spatially and socially uneven and
depend not only on the physical and natural characteristics of human settlements, but
also on socio-economic characteristics (Jamshed et al. 2017). Thus, it has become
imperative to understand social, economic and physical impacts of extreme events,
in order to invoke appropriate actions among communities and institutions to reduce
vulnerability.
There is a significant body of research focusing on the local impact of climate
change on agriculture and the water resources sector in rural settings. Studies have
been conducted on farmers’ perceptions regarding climate change and their subse-
quent risk attitudes and adaptation strategies (Abid et al. 2015; Ullah et al. 2015;
Arshad et al. 2016; Saqib et al. 2016). Other research focused on the impact of
588 A. Jamshed et al.

climate change on different crops and their yields (Hussain and Mudasser 2007; Sul-
tana et al. 2009; Siddiqui et al. 2012; Ali et al. 2017), on food insecurity (Hussain
and Routray 2012; Doocy et al. 2013b; Zhu et al. 2013; Abid et al. 2016; Hussain
et al. 2016; Ali and Erenstein 2017), rural migration (Mueller et al. 2014), and on
water resources (Qureshi 2011; Ahmad et al. 2012; Mahmood et al. 2016). Another
research priority has been focused on changes in systems in order to adapt to climate
change. These include rehabilitation and resettlement (Arai 2012; Nadeem et al.
2014; Akbar and Aldrich 2018; Jamshed et al. 2018), rural community disruption
and livelihoods (Thomas 2014; Arshad et al. 2015; Salik et al. 2015; Kosec and Mo
2017) and institutional and legal frameworks (Cheema et al. 2016). These studies
have mainly focused on the slow-onset impacts of climate change rather than on
extreme events and climate-related disasters. Moreover, little has been explored in
terms of how people learn and change their behaviour, actions as well as their sur-
roundings in the aftermath of extreme flood events in Pakistan. There is a need for
more research, alongside the research on adaptation to changes in average climatic
conditions, on adaptation to more extreme climatic events, which are expected to
increase due to climate change. To this end, this research looks into how communi-
ties become better adapted to extreme climate events due to changes that they make
in the aftermath of an extreme event.
This chapter explores the adverse effects of extreme floods as well as how commu-
nities learn and change their lives from such events. This study focus on the following
questions:
(a) What are the impacts of floods on rural communities in Pakistan?
(b) How do communities change their livelihoods to cope and adapt to floods?
Based on these questions, the paper aims to provide insights into how the impact
of the extreme event can bring changes in the communities’ way of life. It focuses
particularly on how communities adapt their livelihoods after flood disasters. The
chapter is based on both an extensive literature review to provide the conceptual
understanding of the study and to explain the flood hazard profile of the case study
areas, as well as empirical work done by the lead author in three different flood
affected communities in Punjab province of Pakistan.

Theoretical and Conceptual Understanding

Extreme climate events (e.g. droughts) and extreme weather events (e.g. excessive
rainfall) are often referred to as climate extremes or climate-related hazards. They are
defined as “the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below)
a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of observed values of
a variable” (IPCC 2012). This understanding implies that if an extreme event, such
as heavy rainfall during the monsoon season, oversteps a certain threshold value, it
might have hazardous consequences—for example in the form of a flood hazard when
the riverbeds cannot hold back the water. Nevertheless, the thresholds are dynamic
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 589

across time and space and are highly location specific. Essentially, not every weather
or climate extreme results in a disaster.
What makes an extreme event a disaster? The core concept of the IPCC’s Special
Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation (SREX) indicates that the potential of a certain climate extreme
event to be disastrous, depends on the magnitude of the event itself and of the interplay
with exposure and the vulnerability of human and natural systems (IPCC 2012). In
disaster risk literature, disaster is defined as an event causing “serious disruption of
the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material,
economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the
affected community or society to cope using its own resources” (UNISDR 2009).
Extreme events and their impacts that cause disastrous damages and losses can
lead to changes in the societies that they affect. In their framing of extreme dis-
aster events, impacts, and associated changes, Birkmann et al. (2008) differentiate
between impacts of and changes caused by extreme events. Impacts are the result of
a disaster event and can be direct (in the form of losses and damages) and indirect
(influencing socio-ecological systems like markets, health, income etc.). Whereas
change is regarded as a response to minimize the current and future impacts. The
resilience of a society to disaster events is determined both by their ability to cope
with the immediate impacts of the event, as well as their ability to change to become
better adapted to new conditions and to future such events (Birkmann et al. 2009;
Birkmann 2011). In this context changes refers to the concept of capacity and capac-
ity leads to reduce vulnerability (Jamshed et al. 2019). The conceptual framework of
this chapter is based on the framework of Birkmann et al. (2008), modified to make
it specific to the context of flooding in Pakistan (see Fig. 2).
The aftermath of a disaster is seen as a window of opportunity in which social,
economic and environmental conditions can be modified. Berkes et al. (2003) and
Folke (2006) identify change after a disaster as a key factor in the resilience of cou-
pled socioecological systems. These changes might be formal or informal and have
negative, positive, or neutral effects. Moreover, they might be proactive, intending
to build a different—a better—future, or they might be rather responsive, initiated
out of pure necessity. This chapter focuses on the informal changes undertaken by
the flood-affected households in rural areas.

Methodology

The first step of this research was the case study selection, which was based on
a literature review of past flood disasters in Pakistan and judgements from experts.
Three flood affected areas of Punjab province in Pakistan were selected. In these case
study areas, quantitative empirical research was conducted to capture information
about the flood impacts and changes in response to those flood events. Descriptive
statistics were used to analyse the data and draw conclusions. In addition to these
590 A. Jamshed et al.

Changes influence vulnerability

actual event
Extreme event,
and hence modify impacts IMPACT Disaster
leads to impact
Damage of
housing stock
Infrastructure Ecosystem
damage damage
Personal
Community
trauma
disruption

RELIEF

Behavior Changing
Migration change livelihood pattern
Physical
modifications
INFORMAL CHANGES
Changing
New networks Changing relationships
farming practices

coping and adaptation

Fig. 2 The conceptual framework of the study. A feedback loop leading from changes to impact
emphasises that societal changes in response to the impact extreme events impacts influence the
vulnerability of the system. Source Modified from Birkmann et al. (2008)

quantitative methods, key informants interview were conducted to understand the

impacts and changes that occurred after flooding.

Case Study Areas

Flood hazards, predominantly fluvial floods, are common throughout Pakistan, caus-
ing widespread socio-economic damage and loss of life. The province of Punjab is
particularly affected by flooding and was selected as the focus of this case study. It is
the most populous province of the country, accommodating about 53% of the popula-
tion. According to the recent census, the population of Punjab was 110 million, with
approximately 36% living in urban areas (PBS 2017; Rana 2017). The literal mean-
ing of Punjab is “land of five rivers” consisting of Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and
Sutlej. Punjab contributes to 57% of the total cultivatable area in the country, 53%
share in agriculture gross domestic product and 74% of total cereal production in
Pakistan (Hanif et al. 2010; Abid et al. 2015). This makes Punjab an important entity
in the local and national economy since it provides raw materials to urban-based
industries, as well as provides food and services to its inhabitants.
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 591

Historically, Punjab has experienced numerous fluvial floods from different rivers
in rural areas. However, the higher frequency of fluvial floods between 2010 and
2014 is seen as an impact of the changing climate, particularly the increased and
more intense monsoon rainfall (Hussain and Mumtaz 2014). These flood events
have displaced millions of people, destroyed thousands of houses, and damaged
the agriculture base, social services, transport networks, small businesses and an
extensive irrigation system. According to an estimate, the flood of 2010 heavily
impacted the livelihood of people by damaging standing crops on 7.5 million acres
of land, and destroying more than 40,000 small shops and 41 industrial units (NDMA
2010). In 2014, the flood caused the livelihood loss of 73% farmers and 50% daily
wage labourers. Almost 750 schools were damaged and hampered the schooling of
children. It has also been reported that more than 50% of access roads were critically
damaged (NDMA 2014). Table 1 shows the characteristics of these flood events.
These flood impacts have serious repercussions not only for the livelihood of rural
households but also for urban settlements whose economy is closely linked with
urban areas.
Three districts within Punjab Province were selected as case study areas—namely
Districts Bhakkar, Muzaffargarh and Multan. Within these three districts, one sub-
district was selected, in each case the sub-district contains the major city. Two union
councils1 within each of these three sub-districts were selected for the empirical
research (see Fig. 3). A brief description of these case studies is given in following
paragraphs.
The western side of District Bhakkar, where the small major city Darya Khan
lies, is characterised by fertile and irrigated plains along the Indus River. During
the summers, high water discharge in the river Indus causes flooding in the district
and influences the local economy. The district is predominantly characterized by
agricultural function with few agro-industries. The city is characterized by services
like agriculture inputs, food items, building material, a food storage house, a public
hospital, education centres, and a large sugar mill.
District Muzaffargarh is bounded by two major rivers. Indus flows in the west
and Chenab in east making the district a doab, a land between two rivers. A large
area of the district consists of sand dunes and barren land (DoIP 2012). The two
major rivers caused yearly large-scale flooding from 2010 to 2014. The district is
specialized in agro-industrial function and several large, medium and small-scale
agriculture-based industries operate in the district (DoIP 2012). Muzaffargarh is a
medium sized city which offers services like large public hospital, vegetable and
fruit markets, agriculture input services, construction materials, rescue services, and
various large and small scale industries providing non-farm employment to rural
population.
District Multan is a heartland of southern Punjab. The river Sutlej flows in the
south and river Chenab in the west. In the monsoon, flood occurs in River Chenab
cause widespread socio-economic and physical losses in the district. The district has
mixed functions and provides a leadership role in agriculture, industry, education,

1 Union council is the lowest administrative unit in Pakistan.

592 A. Jamshed et al.

Table 1 Characteristic of flood events between 2010 and 2014 in Punjab

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Time End of July Beginning of Beginning of Middle of Beginning of
August August August September
Causes Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme
rainfall in rainfall in rainfall in rainfall in rainfall,
monsoon, monsoon monsoon monsoon snowmelt,
snowmelt, transboundary
dike breach water
discharge,
dike breach
River bodies Indus, Indus and Indus and Chenab and Chenab,
Chenab, Sutlej Chenab small Jhelum, Ravi
Kabul tributaries
Exposure
Districts 12 7 7 13 15
affected
Settlements 3000 335 1512 2946 3500
affected
Population 7000 26 887 634 3000
affected
(thousand)
Area 3500 137 1491 746 3000
submerged
(thousand
acre)
Loss and damages
Deaths 112 4 60 109 284
House 400 1 26 20 100
damaged
(thousand)
Loss of crops 7500 126 474 555 2400
(thousand
acre)
Source Nadeem et al. (2014), NDMA (2014), PDMA (2014), Jamshed (2015)

health and commerce and various other sectors in southern Punjab (Ahsan and Noreen
2009). Thus, the district offers various services and livelihood opportunities for the
people. Multan is a large city which provides multiple services to the rural population.
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 593

Fig. 3 Selected case study areas a Darya Khan, b Muzaffargarh, and c Multan

Socio-economic Profile of Surveyed Households

The household survey revealed that socio-economic characteristics of households

differ among the case study areas (see Table 2). Literacy was lowest in Darya Khan,
where only 33% of respondents were literate followed by Muzaffargarh. The highest
number of literate people live in Multan (60%). Similarly, households in Darya
Khan and Multan were also characterized by the large family size compared to
Muzaffargarh. The predominant primary source of income was farming in all study
areas, where more than 70% of rural households were involved in crop or livestock
farming. In Muzaffargarh, remittance was also seen as a source of income for 15%
of the surveyed population. Income levels among rural communities were varying.
Majority of rural households in Darya Khan and Muzaffargarh were in lower income
bracket i.e., less than PKR 20,000 whereas almost 50% of households in Multan
had more than PKR 20,000. Mean family income was significantly higher in Multan
compared to other case study areas. Regarding housing conditions, the majority of
residents lived in semi-pecca or katcha houses in Darya Khan and Muzaffargarh.
The situation was better in Multan where almost 42% of people live in pecca houses.
There was a large number of households who own agriculture assets like farmland,
Table 2 Socio-economic characteristics of case study areas
594

Socio-economic characteristics Classifications Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan (N = Overall (N =

(N = 114) (N = 115) 96) 325)
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Literacy Illiterate 77 67.5 66 57.4 38 39.6 181 55.7
Literate 37 32.5 49 42.6 58 60.4 144 44.3
Family size >10 32 28.1 28 24.3 27 28.1 87 26.8
5–10 76 66.7 75 65.2 63 65.6 214 65.8
<5 6 5.3 12 10.4 6 6.3 24 7.4
Primary source of income Government 4 3.5 4 3.5 6 6.2 14 4.3
Remittance 6 5.3 17 14.8 5 5.2 28 8.6
Commerce/trade 10 8.8 2 1.7 1 1.04 13 4
Farming 88 77.2 84 73.0 74 77.1 246 75.7
Wage labourers 6 5.3 8 6.9 10 10.4 24 7.4
Family income (in PKR) (1 US dollar is Pakistani Rupees (PKR) 139 <10,000 17 14.9 24 20.9 13 13.5 54 16.6
in March 2019) 10,000–19,999 52 45.6 50 43.5 35 36.5 137 42.2
20,000–29,999 24 21.1 20 17.4 26 27.1 70 21.5
30,000–39,999 9 7.9 6 5.2 9 9.4 24 7.4
>39,999 12 10.5 15 13.0 13 13.5 40 12.3
Type of house Katcha 22 19.3 20 17.4 13 13.5 55 16.9
Semi pecca 60 52.6 68 59.1 43 44.8 171 52.6
Pecca 32 28.1 27 23.5 40 41.7 99 30.5
Ownership of farmland Landless 13 11.4 2 1.7 5 5.2 20 6.2
1–5 acres 52 45.6 74 64.3 42 43.8 168 51.7
(continued)
A. Jamshed et al.
Table 2 (continued)
Socio-economic characteristics Classifications Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan (N = Overall (N =
(N = 114) (N = 115) 96) 325)
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
6–10 acres 27 23.7 26 22.6 41 42.7 94 28.9
>10 acres 22 19.3 13 11.3 8 8.3 43 13.2
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence …
595
596 A. Jamshed et al.

however, size of land varies among the case studies. In Muzaffargarh, around 65% are
small landholders. Overall, the differences in the mentioned characteristics were due
to the opportunities and services provided by their cities. In general, Muzaffargarh
was more deprived in terms of socio-economic characteristics as compared to Darya
Khan and Multan. This finding was consistent with Jamal (2012) where Muzaffargarh
ranked 34, Darya Khan 27 and Multan 22 out of 36 districts of Punjab (Jamal 2012).

Methods

Sampling Process

A probabilistic sampling technique was used to calculate the sample size. Cochran
(1977) sampling formula (see Eq. 1) was used to define the sample size, which was
calculated as 384. In the next step, the correction formula was applied which give the
sample size 380 households, as the number of households was less than 50,000. The
sample size was then proportionately distributed among the three case study area. As
a result, required number of samples came to be 136, 135 and 109 in Darya Khan,
Muzaffargarh and Multan respectively. However, extra samples were collected from
each community. After the completion of survey, incomplete questionnaires were
eliminated from the sample which gave the final sample of 325. Final samples were
114, 115 and 96 for Darya Khan, Muzaffargarh and Multan respectively.

Z2 (p)(1 − p)
SS = (1)
e2
SS = Sample Size
Z = confidence interval (taken as ±1.96 at 95% for this study)
p = percentage picking choice (expressed as a decimal and is taken 0.5 for the
sample size needed to get the maximum value of sample size needed)
e = error value (0.05 = ±5% error is used for calculating the sample)

(1.96)2 (0.5)(1 − 0.5)

SS =
(0.05)2

SS = 384.

Data Collection and Analysis

A structured questionnaire was prepared keeping in view the objectives and ques-
tions of the research. Broadly, the questionnaire was divided into area profile, socio-
economic and demographic characteristics of households, hazard profile and flood
impacts, the influence of flood events on livelihood, goods and services, and flood
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 597

response measures. Considering the cultural and language barrier, local surveyors
were hired and trained to conduct face-to-face interviews from flood affected rural
households. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the data. Frequency analysis
and cross-tabulation was carried out. In addition, means values were compared for
the questions. The results were presented according to each case study area as well
as with respect to the whole sample size.

Results and Discussion

Impacts of Rural Flooding

Impacts of Rural Flooding 2007–2017

Flooding has a varied impact in the case study areas (see Fig. 4). Households have
experienced more than one flood event in the period between 2007 and 2017, inclu-
sive. The rural communities of Multan experienced the most incidents of floods. Here
more than 80% of people experienced more than four flood events in the ten years
studied. In Muzaffargarh, 57% of households experienced more than four floods
whereas in Darya Khan 76% experienced only one flood. Flood entered inside the
houses once in Darya Khan and more than twice in Muzaffargarh and Multan. Flood
events in the last ten years also heavily affected livelihoods. These livelihoods include

4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
Frequency

2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Experience flooding in last Flood inside the house in Livelihood destroyed in
10 years last 10 years last 10 years
Darya Khan (N=114) Muzaffargarh (N=115) Multan (N=96) Overall (N=325)

Fig. 4 Average number of floods experience between 2007 and 2017, the number of times flood
reached inside the house between 2007 and 2017, and number of times livelihood destroyed by
flooding between 2007 and 2017
598 A. Jamshed et al.

damage/loss of crops, tools, livestock, shop etc. On average, livelihood was destroyed
once in the last ten years in Darya Khan, 2.5 times in Muzaffargarh and 3.2 times in
Multan. Results indicate that all the households and their livelihoods were exposed
to flood hazard.

Impacts of Last Worst Flood Event

A flood is particularly challenging as it affects services of rural communities on which

their livelihood depends. Households reported that services and facilities like trans-
port, electricity, drinking water and schooling were severely disrupted for almost one
month after the flood receded. In Muzaffargarh and Multan, the situation was found
much worse. The services disruption exceeded more than a month in both study sites
(see Fig. 5). Households reported that they were depending on relief organizations
for food and drinking water. They had difficulty as the access for relief organiza-
tions was affected due to the damage to transport infrastructure. Unavailability of
electricity resulted in communication problems with emergency services.
The assets of households were adversely impacted in all three case studies, by
the most recent extreme flood event they had experienced. In Darya Khan, all the
households reported that the 2010 flood event was the worst, whereas, in Muzaf-
fargarh and Multan, some households reported the 2014 as the worst flood event.
All households had experienced severe damages to their physical and livelihood

4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
Duration

2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Transport Electricity Drinking water School

Darya Khan (N=114) Muzaffargarh (N=115)

Multan (N=96) Overall (N=325)

Fig. 5 Average of the duration of disruption of various infrastructure services and facilities in last
worst flood event (0 = did not disrupt; 1 = less than a week; 2 = two to three weeks; 3 = almost a
month; 4 = disrupted more than 1 month after the flood receded)
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 599

assets (see Table 3). Damages to the housing structure were highest in Multan and
Darya Khan where 72 and 70% of houses, respectively, were completely damaged.
In Muzaffargarh, all the respondents experience damages to the houses. Damage and
loss of household belongings were highest in Darya Khan. In the other two cases, the
majority experienced partial losses of household belongings and 31% of respondents
in Muzaffargarh and Multan faced no damages. Loss of harvested crops/stored grains
for sale or household consumption and livestock were limited in all case study areas
and the majority experienced no losses especially in Muzaffargarh and Multan. Loss
of standing crops was high in all study areas in the last worst flood events. All the
respondents experienced damage to standing crops. Since the majority of households
were engaged in farming, this loss of standing crops had a significant impact on the
overall livelihood. Overall, it was noticed that flood impacts were highest in Darya
Khan, as compared to Muzaffargarh and Multan. Most of the damages were asso-
ciated with immovable assets like a house and standing crops. The highest losses
being observed in Darya Khan, which is probably because this area has less experi-
ence of flooding than the other two areas, meaning people were less aware of issues
related to flood events. In general, flood critically damaged various assets of rural
communities, especially their major source of income i.e., cropland.

Response to the Flood

Immediate Response

In the event of extreme flooding, the immediate response came from the government
in the form of flood warnings. A large proportion of households reported that they
received a flood warning an hour or two before the flood struck their settlements.
Majority of people were evacuated to safe locations, with only a few left trapped in the
flood (see Table 4). Almost 76% of households in Darya Khan, 71% in Muzaffargarh
and 79% in Multan were displaced for more than a month. This indicates the severity
of an extreme flood event where flood water remained in the area for more than a
month and in some places for more than two months.
Affected and displaced households took refuge upon flood dykes, in relief camps
and with relatives and friends. In Darya Khan and Multan, most of the people went
to relatives and friends in nearby villages and cities. In Muzaffargarh, flood-affected
households stayed on flood dykes and relief camps in the nearby city (see Fig. 6).
Overall, most of the people moved to flood dykes and government relief camps
in a quick response to flood warnings. The results also suggest that many people,
especially in Muzaffargarh and Multan, chose to stay on flood dykes closer to their
homes. Results also highlight the strength of social relationships of flood-affected
households with their relatives and friends who helped them for the duration of the
flood event.
Both governmental and non-governmental relief organizations responded during
and after the flood to provide relief to the flood victims. These organizations first
Table 3 Loss and damage profile of household assets in the last worst flood event in case study areas
600

Damages to/loss of The extent of damage/loss Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Housing structure Complete 80 70.2 67 58.3 69 71.9 216 66.5
Partial 32 28.1 48 41.7 26 27.1 106 32.6
No damage 2 1.8 0 0.0 1 1.0 3 0.9
Mean 1.32 1.42 1.29 1.34
Std. dev 0.503 0.495 0.479 0.495
Household belongings Complete 38 33.3 7 6.1 5 5.2 50 15.4
Partial 58 50.9 72 62.6 61 63.5 191 58.8
No damage 18 15.8 36 31.3 30 31.3 84 25.8
Mean 1.82 2.25 2.26 2.10
Std. dev 0.682 0.560 0.548 0.635
Harvested crops/stored grains Complete 43 37.7 21 18.3 11 11.5 75 23.1
Partial 50 43.9 47 40.9 44 45.8 141 43.4
No damage 21 18.4 47 40.9 41 42.7 109 33.5
Mean 1.81 2.23 2.31 2.10
Std. dev 0.727 0.738 0.670 0.746
Livestock Complete 7 6.1 1 0.9 0 0.0 8 2.5
Partial 43 37.7 27 23.5 16 16.7 86 26.5
No damage 64 56.1 87 75.7 80 83.3 231 71.1
Mean 2.50 2.75 2.83 2.69
Std. dev 0.613 0.456 0.375 0.515
(continued)
A. Jamshed et al.
Table 3 (continued)
Damages to/loss of The extent of damage/loss Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Standing crops Complete 111 97.3 111 96.5 94 97.9 316 97.2
Partial 3 2.7 4 3.5 1 1.0 8 2.5
No damage 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 1.0 1 0.3
Mean 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03
Std. dev 0.132 0.184 0.227 0.182
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence …
601
602 A. Jamshed et al.

Table 4 Duration of community displacement in response to a flood event

Duration of Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall
displacement Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Trapped in flood 1 0.9 3 2.6 6 6.3 10 3.1
<15 days 3 2.6 4 3.5 0 0.0 7 2.2
15–30 days 23 20.2 26 22.6 14 14.6 63 19.4
31–45 days 12 10.5 17 14.8 20 20.8 49 15.1
46–60 days 35 30.7 23 20.0 40 41.7 98 30.2
>60 days 40 35.1 42 36.5 16 16.7 98 30.2
Total 114 100.0 115 100.0 96 100.0 325 100.0

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
% age

20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Flood dyke Relief camp near Relatives/friends Relatives/friends Other
city in other village in city

Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall

Fig. 6 Locations where households lived during the duration of the flood

provided for basic needs like food and non-food items, then helped in the recovery of
losses by providing flood victims with financial aid, building material, as well as seeds
and fertilizer. More than 90% of households in Darya Khan, 87% in Muzaffargarh and
80% in Multan received at least one kind of support from relief or donor organizations.
Food items for relief and financial aid, building material, and seeds/fertilizers were
widely distributed (see Fig. 7). However, the extent of relief and recovery support
differs among the case study areas, especially for the provision of building material
and seeds/fertilizers for cropping. These differences can be attributed to the level of
damages experienced by households and the focus of non-governmental relief and
donor organization on particular settlements.
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 603

80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0
% age

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
Food items Non-food Financial aid Building Seeds and Livestock
items material fertilizers

Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall

Fig. 7 Percentage of households who got multiple relief and recovery items during and after the
flood

Changes After Extreme Flood Events

Physical Changes

Rural households have made physical changes to their houses following the flood
events by changing construction material or raising the base of their houses (see
Table 5). Regarding the change of the construction material, 50% of households in
Darya Khan, 48% in Muzaffargarh and 63% in Multan implemented this adaptation
measure. Changing construction material mainly implies a roof with TR Garders,
and walls with adobe and semi adobe bricks, which are more resilient to floods as
compared to mud houses. Moreover, a large number of rural houses in Muzaffargarh
(47%) and Multan (48%) raised their plinth (base) level when reconstructing their
homes. The majority raised their plinth level between 2 and 4 m. The respondents
implied that previous flood height had motivated them to undertake this structural
change. It was also reported that those who have changed construction material or
raised the base of their houses have experienced no or partial damages in the following
flood events.

Changes in Livelihood Practices

The extreme flood events in the last ten years led to several changes and transforma-
tions of the livelihood practices of the rural communities (see Table 6). As the primary
sources of income were adversely affected by the flood, the households had to adopt
 604

Table 5 Physical and structural changes in the house by households after the flood events
Physical/structural changes Response Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Change construction material Yes 57 50.0 55 47.8 60 62.5 172 52.9
No 57 50.0 60 52.2 36 37.5 153 47.1
Total 114 100.0 115 100.0 96 100.0 325 100.0
Raised house platform Yes 28 24.6 54 47.0 46 47.9 128 39.4
No 86 75.4 61 53.0 50 52.1 197 60.6
Total 114 100.0 115 100.0 96 100.0 325 100.0
A. Jamshed et al.
Table 6 Changes in livelihood practices to adapt to future floods
Livelihood practices Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Change of primary occupation after the flood event Yes 9 7.9 27 23.5 17 17.7 53 16.3
No 105 92.1 88 76.5 79 82.3 272 83.7
Multiple income sources Before flood 86 75.4 61 53.0 61 63.5 208 64.0
After flood 106 93.0 107 93.0 85 88.5 298 91.7
Members working in the city Before flood 28 24.6 26 22.6 28 29.2 82 25.2
After flood 50 43.9 51 44.3 44 45.8 145 44.6
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence …

Frequency and percentage values represent the proportion of the total sample of 325 households
605
606 A. Jamshed et al.

Changing crop variety

Change crop type

Change date of plantation

Diversificaton of crops

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
%
Overall Multan Muzaffargarh Darya Khan

Fig. 8 Changes in cropping patterns in order to adapt to future flood

other sources. In Muzaffargarh and Multan, 24 and 18% of households, respectively,

changed their primary source of income. The majority working in farming adopted
various other occupations after the flood, such as labourers or in commerce. Table 6
shows that after the flood there was an increase in the number of households having
multiple income source. A huge difference could be seen among the households of
Muzaffargarh where flood victims were involved in daily wage jobs, such as sell-
ing milk, farm labour or commerce. Diversification of income was also associated
with the migration pattern of households. The increase in the number of households
working in the city after the flood suggested that flooding has triggered migration for
income diversification. This migration is probably due to household member leav-
ing his village in order to search for additional income sources because the extreme
flood events destroyed incomes so severely that they could not fully recover. It is
interesting to note than the difference between the three areas was higher before the
flood but there was relatively more migration to cities after the flood in the other
two areas than in Multan. Since, Multan city is characterized by mixed functions,
large urban centre and offered more opportunities for income diversification, rural
communities surrounding Multan commute rather than migrating to city. Therefore,
relative change of migration is less in Multan compared to other two case studies.
A major change was seen in cropping patterns of rural households in order to adapt
to future flood events (Fig. 8). Almost all the households surveyed were involved
in farming as a primary, secondary or tertiary occupation and had diversified their
crops since experiencing flooding. Households opted for changing the type of crop
as well as changing the variety. Major changes were seen in Muzaffargarh and Mul-
tan, where 44 and 46% of households, respectively, had grown multiple crops. In
addition to traditional crops, farmers were growing vegetables, which have a shorter
maturity period and can be harvested before the flooding season. However, the use of
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 607

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0
%

20.0

10.0

0.0
Access to market Access to weather Access to Savings
information forecast agriculture
extension services
Darya Khan Muzaffargarh Multan Overall

Fig. 9 Behavioural and habitual changes in households after the flood

this adaptation option remained limited especially in Darya Khan where only 11%
diversified their crops. A significant number of farmers in Muzaffargarh and Multan
shifted the plantation and sowing dates of crops to take into account the potential of
future flooding. Households started growing the same crops, for example, sugarcane,
wheat, rice, maize, and cotton, but with different varieties which can be sown in late
monsoon period and grows more quickly. Overall, Multan has the highest proportion
in adopting all cropping pattern adaptations.

Behaviour Changes

In addition to diversification of income sources, households might also change their

behaviour and habits to cope with and adapt to floods, thus enhancing their liveli-
hood security. These behavioural changes include more frequent access to market
information, weather forecast, agriculture extension services, and financial savings.
The results show that the aforementioned changes were highest in Multan followed
by Muzaffargarh and Darya Khan (see Fig. 9). More than 50% of rural households in
Multan frequently accessed information and agriculture extension services and opted
to save money in response to floods. The proportion of use of these strategies ranged
between 30 and 50% in Muzaffargarh. Moreover, flood-affected households become
more informed and prepared for future flood events. Highest mean scores can be
found for Multan (8.2), followed by Muzaffargarh (7.8) and the lowest was found in
Darya Khan (5.9). Less frequent use of these strategies and changes in behaviour was
seen in Darya Khan as compared to other two case studies. This might be explained
by the lower number of floods experienced as well as by the small size of the nearest
608 A. Jamshed et al.

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
% age

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

Before flood After flood

Fig. 10 Households availing services from village markets/centres before and after the flood

city, which was less specialized and provided limited opportunities for information
and agriculture extension services. This can also be seen as one of the main reason
behind the limited change of cropping pattern in Darya Khan as explained in the
previous section.

Changing Relationship with the City

Extreme flood events have also modified the relation of rural areas with their cities.
Rural areas depend on cities for various facilities, goods and services like agriculture
inputs, extension services, a market to sell and buy goods, credit services and health
facilities. However, due to the disruption caused by flooding, there has been a shift
towards more local services in some areas, especially in Muzaffargarh and Multan.
Before flooding, there was a limited number of rural households making use of
services like purchasing agriculture inputs and processed goods, or selling their
harvest to rural traders and getting credit services from small village markets (see
Fig. 10). The majority of households used to go to the nearest cities for availing such
services. The floods caused destruction of road infrastructure and this, combined with
expensive transport services, has resulted in the increased use of small rural markets
for such services. After the flood events, small local shops opened for providing goods
of daily need, agriculture inputs, trade, and informal credit services. In addition, more
frequent agriculture extension programs by governmental and non-governmental
organizations, as well as the improvement and construction of basic health centres,
have changed the flow of services from urban to rural areas. Nevertheless, the majority
still depends on cities, especially for health, credit and agriculture extension and
The Impact of Extreme Floods on Rural Communities: Evidence … 609

input services. However, the extreme flood events can influence the flow of services
and facilities between urban and rural areas and thus can change the relationship
of rural households with the cities on which they depend on for their livelihood
development.

Conclusions

The impact of extreme events and disasters stimulate formal and informal changes
that can influence capacities and vulnerabilities of individuals, communities, regions,
or countries. These formal and informal changes are considered as ‘window of oppor-
tunity’ for better management and reduction of future disaster risk. This study focuses
on informal changes on the municipal level in the aftermath of extreme flood events in
Pakistan. Observed changes in response to extreme floods took place both internally
(i.e. within rural communities) and externally (i.e. in relationship with the city). In the
immediate fallout of flooding, impacts have instigated pressures on local administra-
tion for provision of relief and reconstruction activities. In the aftermath of flooding,
more long-term changes were undertaken by rural households. The major types of
changes reported by surveyed households were: Physical changes to their houses,
particularly by shifted from traditional building construction practices to more flood
resilient development; Significant changes in their livelihood practices to make them
more diverse, such as by seeking work in the city or by diversifying cropping pat-
terns; An increased usage of information and support services due to being more
aware of the risk of flooding; And an increase in the provision of more localised
services. All these changes refers to capacities and can reduce vulnerability.
The magnitude of these changes differs between the case study areas. The flood
experiences have instigated more changes in the rural communities of Multan than
in the others. The larger size of the city of Multan has made it easier for its rural
inhabitants to frequently access information and attain better and diverse quality of
services. This has helped these people to better adapt to future flood hazards through
changing livelihood strategies. That the rural households of Multan made the most
adaptations and Multan is also a large city with a higher centrality function, indicates
that the size and range of services provided by the city to its surrounding rural areas
is one factor that determines how much rural households change and adapt in the
aftermath of flood events. Interestingly, the relationship between the rural areas and
their city changes after a flood event. Though the flow of services and facilities
from urban to rural areas is hampered after the flood event due to damaged roads,
the flow of people for income diversification and information gets more intense.
Overall, the findings of the paper indicate that people learn and change their lives
following the extreme disaster events. Communities undertake structural, behaviour
and livelihood changes in the long run. Such extreme events can also influence the
relationship between rural areas and their cities.
Extreme flood events provide a prospect for learning and to initiate change in com-
munities. These lessons and changes are imperative for rural households to become
610 A. Jamshed et al.

better adapted to future flood hazards, and hence reduce their vulnerability. This
research did not explicitly quantify if the observed changes made by rural house-
holds after flooding affected their vulnerability—this should be the focus of further
research. Furthermore, more in-depth research should be carried out to examine why
more significant adaptation was observed in rural areas around larger cities, whether
this is due to the size of the city or due to socio-economic or other factors. The topic
permits further investigation on how changing dependence on cities can influence
rural-urban linkages, and hence affect the local economic structure of rural areas
as well as small and medium cities. The study does not intend to provide gener-
alized suggestions for other regions and countries, as people in each region make
informal changes depending upon their social, cultural, economic and geographic
conditions and hazard severity. However, this research has provided an entry point to
identify various informal changes, which can be further investigated using inferential
tests to find more concrete evidences. Despite limitations in the study, results can
guide policymakers and disaster managers to frame their policies and appropriate
actions to reduce local vulnerability. The findings can be useful in looking at the
most significant changes and providing support accordingly.

Acknowledgements This research work is a part of the Ph.D. process at the Institute of Spatial
and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Germany. The authors would like to thank
Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan (SAP-50020940) and German Academic Exchange
Service (DAAD) (PIN = 91549672) for providing funding to the first author to carry out research
work.

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