Cello World IC Dec23
Cello World IC Dec23
Cello World IC Dec23
CMP: INR 787 Target Price: INR 920 17% ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report
Cello World
White Goods
Cello has developed strong competitive advantages in the commodity-plus category of plastic-moulded products. Cello and
Unomax brands, with a portfolio of sub-brands, generate EBITDA margins/ RoCE of >25%/30%. It has developed multiple
manufacturing units (helps it reduce freight cost) and established a pan-India multi-channel distribution network. Moreover,
it has tied up with the global media house Disney to strengthen the brand equity. We model Cello to benefit from: (1) industry
growth of 10%+ p.a. and (2) formalisation of the sector, as the unorganised market share is still ~35%. Cello has been working
on a strong template of steady distribution expansion and differentiated product launches; the same template could continue
to help register 18.7% revenue CAGR over FY23-26E. Crude oil price correction offers margin tailwinds. We initiate with a
BUY rating and a DCF-based target price of INR 920 (implying 36x FY26E earnings). Execution miss, if any, is the key risk.
Table of Contents
Investment summary
Established competitive advantages
Cello has developed multiple competitive advantages, such as: (1) brands like Cello
and Unomax; (2) sub-brands like Kleeno, Puro, Duro, H2O; (3) established distribution
for all the products across general trade, modern trade and e-commerce; (4) five
manufacturing units (and sixth planned at Falna, Rajasthan) which are likely to help
reduce freight costs. It also benefits from umbrella advertising. Further, Cello has
developed a large product portfolio of 15,841 SKUs.
12% 10.6%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Consumerware Stationery Moulded Furniture
Business Overview
About the company
Cello is present in consumer houseware, writing instruments and moulded furniture
segments in India. It is also exporting some products (largely writing instruments)
largely to the Middle East. Cello World operates under the brand Cello and Unomax. It
sells consumer houseware and moulded furniture under the Cello brand and writing
instruments under Unomax. The company has also developed sub-brands such as
Kleeno to sell cleaning products.
Cello had 15,841 SKUs at end of FY23 and has five manufacturing units pan-India. It
is also in the process of setting up one more manufacturing unit at Rajasthan.
Corporate structure
Cello World Ltd is the ultimate holding company of the group. The company has
created multiple entities specialising in different business segments. While it owns
100% stake in consumer houseware and writing instruments, it owns 54.9% stake in
moulded furniture business.
Cello
Cello Household Cello
Cello Industries Houseware Unomax Wim Plast
Products Consumerware
Private Limited Private Limited Stationery Limited (BSE
Private Limited Private Limited
(CIPL) (CHPL) Private Limited Listed entity)
(CHPPL) (CCPL)
Unomax Unomax
Wim Plast
Writing Sales &
Moulding
Instruments Marketing
Private Limited
Private Limited Private Limited
Revenue EBIT
Moulded Furniture and Moulded Furniture and
Allied products Allied products
18% 14%
Writing
Instruments and
Writing Stationery
Instruments and 17%
Stationery Consumer
16% Houseware Consumer
66% Houseware
69%
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Competitive advantages
Established brands
The company has two established brands as Cello and Unomax. It sells consumer
houseware and moulded furniture under the Cello brand and sells writing instruments
under the Unomax brand. It also sells cleaning products under the Kleeno sub-brand.
We note that the company has steadily created a portfolio of 15,841 SKUs across
segments. We believe a large product portfolio under established brands augurs well
to tap consumers across income levels and generate healthy margins.
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Creation of sub-brands
Apart from the key brands such as Cello and Unomax, the company has created
multiple sub-brands such as Puro, Chef, H2O, Modustack, Kleeno, Maxfresh and Duro
in consumer houseware. It has also created sub-brands in writing instruments such as
Ultron2X and Geltron.
Distribution network
Cello has established distribution across channels. However, the major channel for the
company still remains general trade. It operates three separate channels for all three
segments. It has a distribution network of 58,716 outlets to distribute consumer
houseware and 60,826 outlets to distribute writing instruments. It distributes its
moulded furniture products through 6,500 outlets.
50000
200000
40000
150000
30000
100000
20000
50000
10000
0 0
Cello Milton LaOpala Borosil Unomax Camlin Linc
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Exports
7.8%
General trade
80.6%
1.2%
1.0% 0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
FY21 FY22 FY23
Industry overview
Indian consumerware market
The Indian consumerware market was valued at INR 348bn in FY22. The market has
steadily grown over the years with market size increasing to INR 348bn FY22. It has
grown at a CAGR of 6.9% over FY20-22. Higher disposable income, nuclearisation of
families, and growing demand for organised and functional kitchen spaces have led to
strong growth of the consumerware market in India.
600
10.2%
500
10.6%
400
6.9% 8.4%
INR bn
300 7.6%
200
100
0
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY27E
Source: Technopak Analysis
Cookware (INR
75bn))
Thermoware
(INR12bn)
Lunch Boxes
Consumer (INR 20bn)
Houseware (INR
318bn) Storage
Containers (INR
24bn)
Melamine (INR
5bn)
Small Kitchen
Indian Appliances
Consumerware ((INR 125bn)
Market (INR 348bn)
Cleaning
product (INR
7bn)
Opalware (INR
12bn)
Consumer
Porcelain (INR
Glassware (INR
2bn)
31bn)
Glassware (INR
17bn)
120%
60%
96.5%
40% 85.0% 79.0%
20%
0%
FY15
FY22
FY27E
Source: Technopak Analysis
Branded Unbranded
120%
100%
4.1% 6.5%
4.6%
80%
INR bn
60% 13%
9.6% 11.3%
40%
20%
0%
FY15
FY22
FY23
FY27E
600
500
9.6%
400
10%
INR bn
300 8.0%
6.6%
200 7.3%
100
0
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY27E
Source: Technopak Analysis
Category-wise segmentation
The consumer houseware market in India includes a diverse range of products with
small kitchen appliances accounting for 39% of total sales in this market in FY22.
Cookware was 24% and hydration products accounted for 16%.
120%
100%
80%
(%)
60%
40%
20%
0%
FY27E
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
Branded Unbranded
120%
100%
8.8% 8.1% 12.1%
80%
(%)
60%
12.7% 14.6% 18.6%
40%
20%
0%
FY27E
FY15
FY22
FY23
Source: Technopak Report
Glassware
Glassware refers to a range of products made from glass, such as tumblers, wine
glasses, serving glasses etc.
Opalware
Opalware is a type of glass-like ceramic dinnerware that is produced from a mixture
of natural raw materials, such as quartz, feldspar, and bone ash.
Porcelain
Porcelain is a type of ceramic dinnerware that is known for its strength and delicate
appearance. It is made from a mixture of kaolin, feldspar, and quartz, and is fired at
high temperatures.
Key growth drivers of the Indian consumerware market
• Favourable demographics: Steady shift in demographics is resulting in people of
all ages and genders contributing to kitchen work. Rising number of working
women and nuclear families also drive growth of Indian consumerware.
• Higher discretionary spends: Expansion of online platforms and launch of EBOs
and MBOs in smaller cities is providing access to different brands.
• Innovative products: Consumers are shifting towards fashion based
consumerware in order to transform the product from the functional kitchen tool to
part of a lifestyle.
• Shorter replacement cycle: Consumers moving into new houses or re-modelling
their existing homes often prefer the latest collections to match kitchen interiors.
• Gifting culture: Gifting of consumerware products has been a key trend over the
years. It is given as housewarming gift or as wedding gift or in different functions.
700 300
600 250
500
200
400
INR bn
INR bn
150
300
100
200
100 50
0 0
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY27E
FY27E
Source: Technopak Analysis; This does not include exports Source: Technopak Analysis
300
250
200
INR bn
150
100
50
FY23
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY27E
Source: Technopak Analysis; Note-This does not include exports
120%
100%
80%
(%)
60%
40%
20%
0%
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY27E
Exhibit 33: Breakup of India furniture market Exhibit 34: India’s retail furniture market (FY22)
120% Others
Cane/Bamb
(glass, fibre,
oo, 4%
100% resin etc),
4%
Plastic, 9%
80%
(%)
60%
40%
0%
FY15
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY27E
The Indian furniture market is further segmented into material types. Furniture made
out of wood accounted for 66% share. Demand for wooden furniture in the Indian
market is mainly driven by the residential sector, and this market is predominantly
dominated by the unorganised sector.
Organised sector includes players like Godrej Interio, Durian, Pepperfry etc. As wood is
costly, metal and plastic furniture have become popular. It is durable and cost effective.
India’s plastic moulded furniture market
The plastic moulded furniture market in India was valued at INR 68bn in 2015. The
market size grew at a CAGR of 10.8%, reaching INR 113bn in FY20. The market size
was valued at INR 122bn in FY22.
Branded Unbranded
120%
100%
6.3% 15.2% 14.2%
80%
(%)
60%
18.1% 19.6%
40% 10.7%
20%
0%
FY27(P)
FY15
FY22
FY23
New products
2-3%
2%
1-2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
FY22 FY23
300
250
200
150 169
100
50
0
FY21 FY22 FY23
140 9000
8000
120
7000
100 6000
(INR/bbl)
80 5000
(INR/kg)
60 4000
3000
40
2000
20 1000
0 0
Dec-12
Dec-19
Dec-11
Dec-14
Dec-17
Dec-20
Dec-23
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-13
Jun-16
Jun-19
Jun-22
Sep-12
Mar-14
Sep-15
Mar-20
Mar-17
Sep-18
Sep-21
Mar-23
Financial overview
Revenues and growth rates
Cello reported revenue growth of 32.2% in FY23 YoY. We expect the company to report
revenue CAGR of 18.7% over FY23-FY26 led by distribution expansion, premiumization
of portfolio and differentiated launches.
30000
25000
20000
INR mn
15000
10000
5000
0
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
24.0
23.5
23.0
22.5
22.0
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
5000
4000
INR mn
3000
2000
1000
0
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
60
50
40
(%)
30
20
10
0
FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
(days)
60
57
58
56
54
52
FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
60
44
40
20
20
0
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Key financials
Exhibit 58: Key financials
INR mn FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Sales 13,592 17,967 21,407 25,537 30,044
Growth (%) 29.5 32.2 19.1 19.3 17.6
Gross margin (%) 50.1 50.2 51.4 51.7 52.1
EBITDA 3,336 4,205 5,337 6,596 7,881
EBITDA margin (%) 24.5 23.4 24.9 25.8 26.2
PBT 2,991 3,852 4,666 5,763 7,003
PBT margin (%) 22.0 21.4 21.8 22.6 23.3
Tax rate (%) 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.5 25.5
PAT 2,040 2,661 3,265 4,058 4,953
PAT margin (%) 15.0 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.5
PAT growth (%) 34.9 30.5 22.7 24.3 22.1
Capex (522) (1,143) (2,200) (1,000) (800)
Net Working capital days 61 57 66 64 63
Operating cash flow 1,819 2,184 2,908 4,367 5,324
Free cash flow (563) (2,987) 708 3,367 4,524
OCF/ EBITDA (%) 54.5 51.9 54.5 66.2 67.6
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Key risks
Steep increase in commodity prices and /or material increase in competitive intensity
may impact the earnings estimates.
The brands are owned by the promoter group entities. Any impact on the brands may
impact the company’s earnings estimates.
770
Insurance 1.1
FIIs 2.8 750
28-Dec
12-Dec
16-Dec
20-Dec
24-Dec
6-Nov
10-Nov
14-Nov
18-Nov
22-Nov
26-Nov
30-Nov
4-Dec
8-Dec
Others 7.4
Financial Summary
Exhibit 64: Profit & Loss Exhibit 67: Cashflow statement
(INR mn, year ending March) (INR mn, year ending March)
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BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return
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