A Study On Credit Rating Agency in India
A Study On Credit Rating Agency in India
A Study On Credit Rating Agency in India
SUBMITTED BY
OM DNYANESHWAR PRABHU
TYBMS SEMESTER – VI
2021-22
MUMBAI 400-037
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VIDYALANKAR SCHOOL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(Affiliated to Mumbai University)
Certificate
This is to certify that
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
First, I would like to thank to the principal Dr. Rohini Kelkar, the Vice-Principal
Mr. Vijay Gawde, and our Project in-charge Mr. Sagar Gaikwad who gave me the
opportunity to do this project work. They also conveyed the important instructions
from the university time to time. Secondly, I am very much obliged of Ms. Chitra
More for giving guidance for completing the project.
Last but not the least; I am thankful to the University of Mumbai for offering the
project in the syllabus. I must mention my hearty gratitude towards my family,
other faculties and friends who supported me to go ahead with the project.
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DECLARATION
Signature of student
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Om Dnyaneshwar Prabhu
TABLE OF CONTENT
Case 1 Pg 16 - 22
Case 2 Pg 22- 24
Chap 3 Rating Definations Pg 26 - 34
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Chap 9 Conclusion & Suggestion Pg 84 - Pg
86
Annexure and Biblography Pg 87-91
CHAPTER – 1
1.1 - INTRODUCTION
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the instrument being rated. It is focused on communicating to the investors, the
relative ranking of the default loss probability for a given fixed income investment,
in comparison with other rated instruments.
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1.2 - ORIGIN
In India, revenues of the three big rating agencies, CRISIL, ICRA and CARE have
shown an upward trend given the increase in the usage of ratings over time. In
India, CRISIL (Credit Rating and Information Services of India Ltd.) was setup in
1988 as the first rating agency followed by ICRA Ltd. (formerly known as
Investment Information & Credit Rating Agency of India Ltd.) in 1991, and Credit
Analysis and Research Ltd. (CARE) in 1993. All the three agencies have been
promoted by the All-India Financial Institutions.
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1.3 - OBJECTIVES
The main objective is to provide superior and low cost info to investors for taking a
decision regarding risk return trade off, but it also helps to market participants in
the following ways:
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Acts as a marketing tool
1.4 - IMPORTANCE OF CREDIT RATING
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the RBI has stipulated a minimum credit rating by an approved agency for issue of
commercial paper. In general, credit rating is expected to improve quality
consciousness in the market and establish over a period of time, a more meaningful
relationship between the quality of debt and the yield from it. Credit Rating is also
a valuable input in establishing business relationships of various types. However,
credit rating by a rating agency is not a recommendation to purchase or sale of a
security. Investors usually follow security ratings while making investments.
Ratings are considered to be an objective evaluation of the probability that a
borrower will default on a given security issue, by the investors. Whenever a
security issuer makes late payment, a default occurs. In case of bonds, non-
payment of either principal or interest or both may cause liquidation of a company.
In most of the cases, holders of bonds issued by a bankrupt company receive only a
portion of the amount invested by them. Thus, credit rating is a professional
opinion given after studying all available information at a particular point of time.
Such opinions may prove wrong in the context of subsequent events. Further, there
is no private contract between an investor and a rating agency and the investor is
free to accept or reject the opinion of the agency. Thus, a rating agency cannot be
held responsible for any losses suffered by the investor taking investment decision
on the basis of its rating. Thus, credit rating is an investor service and a rating
agency is expected to maintain the highest possible level of analytical competence
and integrity. In the long run, the credibility of rating agency has to be built, brick
by brick, on the quality of its services provided, continuous research undertaken
and consistent efforts made. The increasing levels of default resulting from easy
availability of finance, has led to the growing importance of the credit rating.
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1.5 – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research design adopted for the study is one of the analytical cum casual
research process which has been elaborately discussed below:
The conclusive research provides information that helps the executive make a
rational decision. The most used type of conclusive research design is the
descriptive design. Such designs provide a description of a specific situation in
such a way as to help the researcher identify cause and effect relationships.There
are two types of data collection.
The data is collected through sampling method , 100 investors were sampled with
the help of questionnaire. The survey was conducted in Mumbai.
The secondary data is readily available data from published or printed sources. The
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secondary data is generally used in the case of academic research and to a certain
extent in the case of social research. However, commercial research requires more
of primary data as compared to secondary data. Generally researcher first makes an
attempt to obtain information from secondary sources to solve the problem.
However, when the secondary data is sufficient and outdated, the researcher resorts
to primary data.
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1.6 - LIMITATIONS OF CREDIT RATING
A Credit Rating is an assessment carried out from the limited standpoint of credit
risk evaluation. A Credit Rating from rating agency therefore constitutes a current
Opinion on the credit quality of a specific issue of debt, in terms of the issuer’s
ability and willingness to meet principal and interest payments on rated debt
instruments in a timely manner. Credit Ratings are arrived at based on information
obtained in the rating process. In addition to management meetings and
information provided by rated entities, the rated entity’s audited accounts,
regulatory filings, and information provided by trustees form an important source
of information. CRISIL does not verify and validate all the information that it uses
for its ratings. However, reasonable due diligence is carried out on all information
used to the extent feasible to ensure that a meaningful and accurate rating exercise
is done (for instance, financial accounts are extensively ‘adjusted’ to ensure that
they present a relevant picture of the financial position of an entity from a debt
servicing perspective, to the extent feasible).
2. Static study. Rating is a static study of present and past historic data of the
company at one particular point of time. Numbers of factors including economic,
political, environment, and government policies have direct bearing on the working
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of a company. Any changes after the assignment of rating symbols may defeat the
very purpose of risk inductiveness of rating.
4. Rating may be biased. Personal bias of the investigating team might affect the
quality of the rating. The companies having lower grade rating do not advertise or
use the rating while raising funds from the public. In such a case the investors
cannot get the true information about the risk involved in the instrument.
6. Difference in rating grades. Same instrument may be rated differently by the two
rating agencies because of the personal judgment of the investigating staff on
qualitative aspects. This may further confuse the investors.
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CHAP 2 – Literature Overview
Case 1
While the firm prospered over the following decades as the U.S. economy grew
into an international powerhouse, Lehman had to contend with plenty of challenges
over the years. Lehman survived them all – the railroad bankruptcies of the 1800s,
the Great Depression of the 1930s, two world wars, a capital shortage when it was
spun off by American Express in 1994, and the Long Term Capital Management
collapse and Russian debt default of 1998. However, despite its ability to survive
past disasters, the collapse of the U.S. housing market ultimately brought Lehman
Brothers to its knees, as its headlong rush into the subprime mortgage market
proved to be a disastrous step.
Below table gives and overview of its stated annual income data from FY2003 to 6
months FY 2008.
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The below table shows the break up of the revenue from its 3 main core business
of Capital Markets, Investment Banking and Investment Management.
In 2003 and 2004, with the U.S. housing boom (read, bubble) well under way,
Lehman acquired five mortgage lenders, including subprime lender BNC Mortgage
and Aurora Loan Services, which specialized in Alt-A loans (made to borrowers
without full documentation). Lehman's acquisitions at first seemed prescient;
record revenues from Lehman's real estate businesses enabled revenues in the
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capital markets unit to surge 56% from 2004 to 2006, a faster rate of growth than
other businesses in investment banking or asset management. The firm securitized
$146 billion of mortgages in 2006, a 10% increase from 2005. Lehman reported
record profits every year from 2005 to 2007. In 2007, the firm reported net income
of a record $4.2 billion on revenue of $19.3 billion.
In February 2007, the stock reached a record $86.18, giving Lehman a market
capitalization of close to $60 billion. However, by the first quarter of 2007, cracks
in the U.S. housing market were already becoming apparent as defaults on
subprime mortgages rose to a seven-year high. On March 14, 2007, a day after the
stock had its biggest one-day drop in five years on concerns that rising defaults
would affect Lehman's profitability, the firm reported record revenues and profit
for its fiscal first quarter. In the post-earnings conference call, Lehman's chief
financial officer (CFO) said that the risks posed by rising home delinquencies were
well contained and would have little impact on the firm's earnings. He also said
that he did not foresee problems in the subprime market spreading to the rest of the
housing market or hurting the U.S. economy.
Reasons of Failure
Boom & burst in the housing market
Speculation
High risk mortgage loans &lending/burrowing practices
Securitizing practices
Inaccurate credit ratings
Govt. policies
The Beginning of the End
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As the credit crisis erupted in August 2007 with the failure of two Bear Stearns
hedge funds, Lehman's stock fell sharply. During that month, the company
eliminated 2,500 mortgage-related jobs and shut down its BNC unit. In addition, it
also closed offices of Alt-A lender Aurora in three states. Even as the correction in
the U.S. housing market gained momentum, Lehman continued to be a major
player in the mortgage market. In 2007, Lehman underwrote more mortgage-
backed securities than any other firm, accumulating an $85-billion portfolio, or
four times its shareholders' equity. In the fourth quarter of 2007, Lehman's stock
rebounded, as global equity markets reached new highs and prices for fixed-
income assets staged a temporary rebound. However, the firm did not take the
opportunity to trim its massive mortgage portfolio, which in retrospect, would turn
out to be its last chance.
Lehman's high degree of leverage - the ratio of total assets to shareholders equity -
was 31 in 2007, and its huge portfolio of mortgage securities made it increasingly
vulnerable to deteriorating market conditions. On March 17, 2008, following the
near-collapse of Bear Stearns - the second-largest underwriter of mortgage-backed
securities - Lehman shares fell as much as 48% on concern it would be the next
Wall Street firm to fail. Confidence in the company returned to some extent in
April, after it raised $4 billion through an issue of preferred stock that was
convertible into Lehman shares at a 32% premium to its price at the time.
However, the stock resumed its decline as hedge fund managers began questioning
the valuation of Lehman's mortgage portfolio.
On June 9, Lehman announced a second-quarter loss of $2.8 billion, its first loss
since being spun off by American Express, and reported that it had raised another
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$6 billion from investors. The firm also said that it had boosted its liquidity pool to
an estimated $45 billion, decreased gross assets by $147 billion, reduced its
exposure to residential and commercial mortgages by 20%, and cut down leverage
from a factor of 32 to about 25.
However, these measures were perceived as being too little, too late. Over the
summer, Lehman's management made unsuccessful overtures to a number of
potential partners. The stock plunged 77% in the first week of September 2008,
amid plummeting equity markets worldwide, as investors questioned CEO Richard
Fuld's plan to keep the firm independent by selling part of its asset management
unit and spinning off commercial real estate assets. Hopes that the Korea
Development Bank would take a stake in Lehman were dashed on September 9, as
the state-owned South Korean bank put talks on hold.
The news was a deathblow to Lehman, leading to a 45% plunge in the stock and a
66% spike in credit-default swaps on the company's debt. The company's hedge
fund clients began pulling out, while its short-term creditors cut credit lines. On
September 10, Lehman pre-announced dismal fiscal third-quarter results that
underscored the fragility of its financial position. The firm reported a loss of $3.9
billion, including a write-down of $5.6 billion, and also announced a sweeping
strategic restructuring of its businesses. The same day, Moody's Investor Service
announced that it was reviewing Lehman's credit ratings, and also said that
Lehman would have to sell a majority stake to a strategic partner in order to avoid
a rating downgrade. These developments led to a 42% plunge in the stock on
September 11.
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With only $1 billion left in cash by the end of that week, Lehman was quickly
running out of time. Last-ditch efforts over the weekend of September 13 between
Lehman, Barclays PLC and Bank of America, aimed at facilitating a takeover of
Lehman, were unsuccessful. On Monday September 15, Lehman declared
bankruptcy, resulting in the stock plunging 93% from its previous close on
September 12.
Conclusion
Lehman's collapse roiled global financial markets for weeks, given the size of the
company and its status as a major player in the U.S. and internationally. Many
questioned the U.S. government's decision to let Lehman fail, as compared to its
tacit support for Bear Stearns (which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase) in March
2008. Lehman's bankruptcy led to more than $46 billion of its market value being
wiped out. Its collapse also served as the catalyst for the purchase of Merrill Lynch
by Bank of America in an emergency deal that was also announced on September
15.
Lehman Brothers was given a Credit Rating of AA by all top 3 credit rating
companies just 2 days before the Lehman collapse in Sept 2008. This shows that
inspite of all the detailed evaluation done by credit rating agencies, the ratings do
not reflect the real status of the company and can defraud investor of billions of
dollars.
Lehman Brothers case study shows that the ratings given by credit rating
companies is not full proof and are subjective at times given without doing proper
due diligence.
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CASE 2
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Conclusion
CHAPTER 3
RATING DEFINITIONS
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Long term rating scales
Investment Grades
Speculative Grades
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susceptible to default than other speculative grade debentures in
Inadequate the immediate future, the uncertainties that the issuer faces could
Safety lead to inadequate capacity to make timely interest and principal
payments
C Debentures rated `C' are judged to have factors present that make
Substantial them vulnerable to default; timely payment of interest and
Risk principal is possible only if favorable circumstances continue.
1) CRISIL may apply "+" (plus) or "-" (minus) signs for ratings
from AA to D to reflect comparative standing within the
category.2) The contents within parenthesis are a guide to the
Note: pronunciation of the rating symbols.3) Preference share rating
symbols are identical to debenture rating symbols except that the
letters "pf" are prefixed to the debenture rating symbols, e.g.
pfAAA ("pf Triple A").
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("F Triple
A") Highest payment of interest and principal is very strong.
Safety
FAA This rating indicates that the degree of safety regarding timely
("F Double payment of interest and principal is strong. However, the relative
A") High degree of safety is not as high as for fixed deposits with "FAAA"
Safety rating.
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1) The rating agency may apply "+" (plus) or "-" (minus) signs
for ratings from FAA to FC to indicate the relative position
Note: within the rating category of the company raising fixed deposits.
2) The contents within parenthesis are a guide to the
pronunciation of the rating symbols.
P-1 This rating indicates that the degree of safety regarding timely
payment on the instrument is very strong.
P-2 This rating indicates that the degree of safety regarding timely
payment on the instrument is strong; however, the relative
degree of safety is lower than that for instruments rated "P-1".
P-3 This rating indicates that the degree of safety regarding timely
payment on the instrument is adequate; however, the instrument
is more vulnerable to the adverse effects of changing
circumstances than an instrument rated in the two higher
categories.
P-4 This rating indicates that the degree of safety regarding timely
payment on the instrument is minimal and it is likely to be
adversely affected by short-term adversity or less favorable
conditions.
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Note : CRISIL may apply "+" (plus) sign for ratings from P-1 to P-3
to reflect a comparatively higher standing within the category
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instruments rated below this category.
Note : 1) CRISIL may apply "+" (plus) or "-" (minus) signs for
ratings from AA to C to reflect comparative standing within the
category.
2) The contents within parenthesis are a guide to the
pronunciation of the rating symbols.
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nature and structure of the credit enhancement mechanism to ensure timely
payments on rated debt obligations an regulatory issues as regards the transfer risk.
The credit rating would notch up the standalone credit ratings of these Indian
issuers depending on all these factors.
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A)* instrument. This instrument differs in safety, from "AAA(fso)"
instruments only marginally.
Investment Grades
Speculative Grades
B(fso) High Risk - This rating indicates high risk and greater
susceptibility to default. Any adverse business or economic
conditions would lead to lack of capability or willingness to
meet financial obligations on time.
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certainty regarding timely payment of financial obligations is
doubtful unless circumstances are favorable.
Note: The contents within Parenthesis are a guide to the pronunciation of the rating
symbols.
Ratings are broadly divided into two categories - Secure and Vulnerable.
Rating categories from "AAA" to "BBB" are classified as 'secure' ratings
and are used to indicate insurance companies whose financial capacity to
meet policyholder obligations is sound. Rating categories from "BB" to
"D" are classified as vulnerable ratings and are used to indicate insurance
companies whose financial capacity to meet policyholder obligations is
vulnerable to adverse economic and underwriting conditions.
The opinion does not take into account timeliness of payment or the
likelihood of the use of a defense such as fraud to deny claims. For insurance
companies with cross-border or multi-national operations, including those
conducted by branch offices or subsidiaries, ratings do not take into account
any potential that may exist for foreign exchange restrictions to prevent
policy obligations from being met. Financial strength ratings do not refer to
an insurance company's ability to meet non-policy obligations (i.e. debt
contracts).The ratings are not recommendations to purchase or discontinue a
policy, contract or security issued by an insurance company nor are they
guarantees of financial strength.
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Secure Ratings
Vulnerable Ratings
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B Reflects Greater Susceptibility to default on policyholder
obligations. While current obligations are met, adverse business or
economic conditions would lead to lack of ability or willingness to
meet policyholder obligations.
Financial strength ratings from "AA" to "BB" may be modified by use of a plus
(+) or (minus (-) sign to show the relative standing of the insurance / reinsurance
company within the rating categories.
AAA The fund’s portfolio holdings provide very strong protection against
f losses from credit defaults.
Cf The fund’s portfolio holdings have factors present which make them
vulnerable to credit defaults.
2. Commercial paper
4. Bank loans
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7. Initial Public Offers (IPOs)
CHAPTER 4
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the prospective issuer . This mandate spells out the terms of the rating assignment.
Important issues that are covered include: binding the credit rating agency to
maintain confidentiality, the right to the issuer to accept or not to accept the rating
and binds the issuer to provide information required by the credit rating agency for
rating and subsequent surveillance.
(b) Rating team:The team usually comprises two members. The composition of
the team is based on the expertise and skills required for evaluating the business of
the issuer.
(d) Secondary information:The credit rating agency also draws on the secondary
sources of information including its own research division. The credit rating
agency also has a panel of industry experts who provide guidance on specific
issues to the rating team. The secondary sources generally provide data and trends
including policies about the industry.
Plan visits facilitate understanding of the production process, assess the state of
equipment and main facilities, evaluate the quality of technical personnel and form
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an opinion on the key variables that influence level , quality and cost of
production. These visits also help in assessing the progress of projects under
implementation.
(f) Preview meeting:After completing the analysis, the findings are discussed at
length in the internal committee, comprising senior analysts of the credit rating
agency. All the issues having a bearing on the rating are identified. At this stage,
an opinion on the rating is also formed.
(g) Rating Committee meeting:This is the final authority for assigning ratings. A
brief presentation about the issuers business and the management is made by the
rating team. All the issues identified during discussions in the internal committee
are discussed. The rating committee also considers the recommendation of the
internal committee for the rating. Finally, a rating is assigned and all the issues
which influence the rating are clearly spelt out.
(h) Rating communication: The assigned rating along with the key issues is
communicated to the issuer’s top management for acceptance. The ratings which
are not accepted are either rejected or reviewed. The rejected ratings are not
disclosed and complete confidentiality is maintained.
(I) Rating Reviews: If the rating is not acceptable to the issuer , he has a right to
appeal for a review of the rating. These reviews are usually taken up only if the
issuer provides fresh inputs on the issues that were considered for assigning the
rating. Issuer’s response is presented to the Rating Committee. If the inputs are
convincing, the Committee can revise the initial rating decision.
(j) Surveillance:It is obligatory on the part of the credit rating agency to monitor
the accepted ratings over the tenure of the rated instrument. As has been mentioned
earlier, the issuer is bound by the mandate letter to provide information to the
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credit rating agency. The ratings are generally reviewed every year, unless the
circumstances of the case warrant an early review. In a surveillance review the
initial rating could be retained or revised (upgrade or downgrade).
The process of Rating starts with the issue of the Rating Request by the issuer/
signing of the Rating agreement. A detailed flow chart is as under:
A credit rating is an opinion on the relative credit risk (or default risk) associated
with the instrument being rated, where a failure to pay even one rupee of the
committed debt service payments on the due dates would constitute a default. For
most instruments, the process involves estimating the cash generation capacity of
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the issuer through operations (primary cash flows) in relation to its requirements
for servicing debt obligations over the tenure of the instrument. The analysis is
based on information obtained from the issuer, and on an understanding of the
business environment in which the issuer operates; it is carried out within the
framework of the rating agency‘s criteria.
The analytical framework involves the analysis of business risk, technology risk,
operational risk, industry risk, market risk, financial risk and management risk.
Business risk analysis covers industry analysis, operating efficiency, market
position of the company whereas financial risk covers accounting quality, existing
financial position, cash flows and financial flexibility. Under management risk
analysis an assessment is made of the competence and risk appetite of the
management.
Once we have received a request for a new rating of a bank (this should
subsequently be backed by a formal rating agreement), we follow the procedures
outlined below:
It is first necessary to collect and analyze data relating to the it system in which the
Bank’s/FIs in question operates and to the place of the Bank’s/FIs within that
system. This process includes analysis of the relevant national Bank’s/FIs market
and of existing and potential competition in that market and also of the degree of
concentration within it. It requires examination of the role and functions of the
Bank’s/FIs supervisory authorities in the country in question, of the degree of state
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control (or decontrol) of that country’s Bank’s/FIs system, of the requirements of
public reporting Bank’s/FIs and of the accounting practices that lie behind the
figures publicly reported by Bank’s/FIs. On a still wider scale it is necessary to
take into account the requirements of the Basle G 10 Agreement on "International
convergence of capital measurement and capital standards" and subsequent
interpretative statements from the Basle Committee (of international bank
supervisors).
2) Bank questionnaire:
As already indicated, the next step is a meeting with senior management of the
bank in question to discuss and assess the data provided. Such meetings are usually
arranged with the bank's chief financial officer, but many of the more sophisticated
banking groups and banks now employ rating agency liaison officers. The length
and number of meetings with management depend on the complexity of the entity
being rated, but, normally the first time we rate a bank there will be one such
meeting, and it will last for half a day to a day.
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I. Capitals adequacy ratio
II. Resource raising ability
III. Asset quality
IV. Management & system evaluation
V. Earning potential
VI. Liquidity / Asset Liability Management
NO one factor has an overriding importance or is considered in isolation.
These entire six factors are viewed in conjunction before assigning rating.
In addition to the factors which constitute the CRAMEL, the size of the financial
entity is also an important parameter. The size of an entity in the financial sector,
imparts it the ability to with stand systematic shock, support that can be expected
for the entity.
I CAPITAL ADEQUACY:
Capital adequacy of an entity provides the necessary capital cushion to with stand
credit risks. While assigning a rating, it analyses the capital adequacy level and its
sustainability in the medium to long term. The analysis of capital adequacy
encompasses the following factors:
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The proportion of Tier I capital or core capital of a bank /FI is the primary
indicator of the quality of capital .The level of Tier-I capital is given primary
importance when assigning rating for capital adequacy .Although the presence of
Tier-II capital does provide some cushion in the short to the medium term, the
Tier-II capital needs to be periodically replenished .It also analyses other issues
like the presence of hidden reserve and the percentage of the investment portfolio
marked to the market. These issues help in streamlining accounting policy
differential across various entities and have a bearing on the quality of capital.
An entity has the flexibility to raise Tier –I capital either through internal accruals
or through the capital markets. The ability of the entity to access the capital market
to meet its Tier –I capital needs and its ability to service the increased capital base
is considered while evaluating the flexibility of a bank /FI to support the increased
asset base through earning is an important parameters in assessing sustainability of
capital adequacy.An entity which is able to sustain asset growth through internal
generation without impairing capital adequacy is viewed favorably.
Its factors the future growth plans of a bank/ Fi while analyzing capital adequacy
.The capital adequacy of the entity (although at currently high levels) would
be regarded as unsustainable , if it pursuing a strategy of high growth .
It analyses the resource position of the bank /FI in terms of its ability to maintain a
low cost , stable resource base .In the domestic context , the resource (funding)
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composition of bank and FIs is very different.Bank are significantly deposit funded
whereas the FIs have to depend on wholesale funds .
Although some FIs do raise retail funds, they are at a natural disadvantage (in
raising retail deposits) as compared to the banking sector in terms of the
restrictions on the minimum tenure and interest rates, the absence of a cheque
issuing facility and a relatively smaller branch network. Some of the FIs do have
access to significant concessional funding from the government if they are playing
a role which is of policy importance t the country. However, in general the
dependence on wholesale funding attaches a degree of risk t the funding profile of
FIs.These risks (especially stability of resource) are partly mitigated by the access
that the all India Financial Institutions (AIFIs) have to funds from provident funds
and insurance sectors; these funds are of a retail origin .Given this basic distinction
in funding profiles between bank/FIs, the funding risk profile of bank / FIs is
discussed separately.
The following issues are considered while analyzing the resources position of a
bank.
A large deposit base provides stability to the resource position of a bank. The size
of a deposit base provides the bank, a critical mass for effectively managing its
cash flows and adds considerably to the diversity (in term of the number of
deposits) of the deposit base.Diversity in the deposit base & in term of large
numbers of small ticket size deposit, the geographically spread and the optimal
rural/urban mix, lend stability to the resources position of a bank. The number of
branches and their geographical spread lend diversity to the deposit base of a bank.
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Thus a bank with large number of branches, dispersed all over India and an optimal
rural / urban mix is viewed favorably.
The deposit mix of a bank has an impact on the cost of deposits. A high proportion
of saving and current deposit, signify a well-entrenched deposit base and lead to a
stable and low cost resource base. It also analyses the trends in deposit mix to form
an opinion on the future stability and costs.
Accretion to deposit is the main source of funding asset growth, and managing
liquidity risk in bank.It compares the growth in deposit of a bank with industry
trends to make relative judgments.
Cost of deposit is a function of deposit mix of the bank, its region of operation and
the bank to attract deposit at lower rates. Bank which have a low cost of resources,
not only benefits through higher profitability but also have a higher flexibility to
maintain their resources position, in the face of increasing competition. The
relevant issues while analyzing the resources position of a FIs:
Given the fact that the FIs are predominantly wholesale funded, the diversity of
the investor population (both domestic and international) does mitigate the
risk profile to a certain extent.FIs which is dependent on a few investors are
viewed less favorably.
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II.6 Funding mix and cost of funds:
Traditionally, all the FIs enjoyed concessional funding from the government in
the form of SLR bonds. This facility has been progressively withdrawn from
the institutions and they have been increasingly accessing market borrowing over
the past few years. The mix of funds between the government and market
borrowing over the past few years. The mix of the funds between the government
and market borrowed funds is an important determinant of the overall cost of
funds for an FI.
Some of the leading FIs have started tapping the retail market for bonds and
deposits. These funds do impart stability to the funding mix and the trends in
raising retail resource are factored favorably into its risk evaluation
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Asset quality of bank/FIs is a measure of the ability of the bank to manage credit
risks.Its analyses the asset quality on the basis of the following parameters-
Geographical diversity of an asset base and diversity across industries, along with
single risk concentration limits are important inputs in determining the asset
quality of bank/FIs. Industrial development of the states in the western region, like
Maharashtra and Gujarat is relatively higher. Thus, the amount of credit extended
in this region is higher concentration of advances in the western region. However,
the bank /FIs with all India presence have the additional flexibility due to their
widespread branch network, to enhance their exposure to other region, in case of
adverse economic development in these states. However, the regional banks with
limited operation and branch network have lesser flexibility to diversify their
advances portfolio and are thus susceptible to adverse economic condition in a
particular region.
Credit quality of the corporate portfolio of the bank is an important input in the
analysis of the asset quality.It analyses the profile of the client in the asset
portfolio to make a judgement on portfolio quality. The ability of bank/FIs to
attracts better credit quality, especially after the dismantling of consortium
lending. The size (of capital) of a financial sector entity lends considerable
flexibility to the entity to attract larger and better quality clients given its sheer
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ability to take on larger exposure in its balance sheet. Also, the ability of the
entities to attract and retain good quality clients by providing value added
service would enhance asset quality in the future.
Bank in India have an obligation to lend a proportion of their funds to the priority
Sector which primarily encompasses agriculture and small scale industries.
To his extent, FIs are better placed than banks because they do not have any such
obligation. It analyses the credit quality of this non-industrial portfolio in arriving
at a judgement on an overall asset quality of a bank. The credit quality of the asset
portfolio is also indicated by the segment wise NPA levels of the portfolio,
indicates the performance of the bank in each segment. This help in gauging the
relative strength of the bank in each of the loan segment. Some of the banks have a
higher level of exposure to the trading. These advances provide a comparatively
higher yield and also provide diversity due to their small ticket size. The
Indian banks have to compulsorily lend 40% of their total advances to the priority
sector. The break–up of the loan within these sectors in an important indicator of
the quality of the portfolio
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III.3 NPA LEVEL:
The asset quality of a bank depends not only on the credit quality of its but also on
the ability of the bank to manage its asset portfolio. The NPA figures at gross
and net levels help in benchmarking the bank’s ability to manage their
portfolio, on a relative scale. While the gross NPA levels are an indicator of the
inherent quality of the asset portfolio of the entity and thus the credit appraisal
capabilities, the net NPA levels are an indicator of the balance sheet strength of the
bank, The NPA levels also indicate the proportion of earning asset of the bank and
the potential credit loss of bank. The proportion of earning asset and the potential
credit loss would have a bearing on the future earning capability of the bank.
Movement of provision and write offs: Some bank/FIs follow a practice of their
bad loans, in large portion of their bad loans, in order to clean up their balance
sheets.
Thus the present NPA numbers are not a true indicator of the bank’s asset
portfolio.Hence, NPA levels alone cannot be criteria to assess future asset quality
of the bank. Average provisioning including write-offs, over a five years’ time
frame is an indicator of the levels cleaning up done by the bank, over the years, in
order to reduce its NPA levels. The amount of provisioning done is also an
indicator of the inherent credit quality of the asset portfolio. The average
provisioning levels and its movement serve as indicators of the credit risk of the
portfolio and the expected future write-offs and provisioning which would further
affect the earning capability of a bank.
High growth rates in the financial sector bring the establishment of collection
systems, tracking of asset quality and low seasoning of the lending portfolio. It
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closely analyses the pattern and nature of growth .It studies the entities with higher
growth rates more carefully to look at the nature of growth, reason growth and
its implications on the asset quality. An entity which has grown by attracting
good quality clients from its competitors would be viewed more favorably as
compared to one which has grown by attracting good quality clients from its
competitors would be viewed more favorably as compared to one which has grown
just by increasing its geographical presence or diluting credit criteria.
The future goals and strategies of the bank are evaluated to take a view in the
vision of the bank management. The ability of bank to adapt to the changing
environment and their ability to manage credit and market risk, especially in a
scenario of increasing deregulation of the financial market assumes critical
importance.
It studies the credit appraisal system for managing and controlling credit and
market risk at a portfolio levels. Significant emphasis is laid on the risk monitoring
system and the periodically and quality of such monitoring. Most Indian banks face
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the challenges of enhancing their information system and quality of information
reporting. The degree of acceptance of new system and procedure in the bank, data
monitoring systems and the extent of computerization within the bank is given
significant importance. The level of computerization is gauged on the basis of the
extent of the business covered by computerization, the computerization in branches
and computerization of money market and forexmarket desks.
It attaches significance to the operating system for data capture and MIS
reporting in a bank.A bank balance sheet with a large volume of operating system
in the bank, and is viewed negatively.
The motivational level of employees would direct affect the service level of the
bank which is a key success factor in a market driven environment.
V Earning Potential:
It is measured by return on total asset provides the cushion for its debt service, and
also increases the ability of the bank to cover its asset risk. The ROTA is a function
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of interest spread, expenses levels provisioning levels and the non-interestincome
earned by the bank.
The size of net profit is also factored while rating of the entity. Earning of the bank
/FIs has been affected due to the volatility in interest rates. Thus, the trend in
profitability at gross profit levels is examined over the past levels is examined over
the past years to take a view on the sustainability of earning. The various elements
leading to the profitability like net interest income, non-interest income, expense
levels and the provisioning levels are also analyzed to take and the sustainability of
profits in future.
It assesses the liability maturity profile of the entity to form an opinion on the
liquidity risk as well the interest rate risk.
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VI.1 Liquidity risk:
It factors the resources strength of the bank in form of access to call borrowing and
the extent of refinance available from RBI. The bank are the primary channel
through which retail saving are channeled back into the public sector bank having a
wide spread branch network act as conduits for mobilization of retail saving . It
views most of the public sector bank favorably on the liquidity support available to
the liquidity support available to the bank in the form of call money and RBI
refinance.
The rating factor the volatility of the bank /FIs earning to interest rate changes .It
analyses the asset liability maturity profile of an entity to judge the level of interest
rate risk carried by the entity. In the Indian banking system, the interest rate and
maturity profile of the asset and liabilities have an inherent mismatch. the floating
rate advances portfolio (linked to prime lending rates ) and the relatively long
duration investment portfolio are funded through short to medium tenure liabilities
which exposes the bank to an element of interest rate risk.
FIs do score over bank in this regard due to the whole sale nature of their operation
and policies which link the nature of their operation and policies which link the
nature of borrowing (fixed/ floating) with corresponding matched lending. On an
overall basis, FIs carry relatively lesser interest rate risk as compared to the bank.
4. Parent support:
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It factors the parentage of the entity in the final rating decision .The extent of
support factored is a function of the relative size of the two entities, the credit
quality of the parent and the strategic importance of the subsidiary to the parent .It
positively factors the system support for specialized entities in the financial sector,
which have a policy role in the national economy.
5. Draft report:
Following the meeting with its management and subsequent analysis of the data
obtained, the analysts draft a rating report on the bank. Depending on the rating
agreement and the particular circumstances, this may be a short-form report (one
page of text forming the rating report, plus spread sheets) or a long-form report
(one front page of text forming the rating report, plus ca. five pages of text
providing our rating analysis, plus spread sheets, plus spread sheet annex,
providing explanatory notes to the spread sheets). The analysis in the text of the
long-form report is arranged under main and sub- headings which tie in with the
topics covered in the bank questionnaire.
We send our draft report (without ratings) to the bank being rated, for two reasons:
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7. Amendment and subsequent circulation of report to rating committee;
composition of the committee
We amend our report in accordance with any comments from the bank which meet
the criteria in 6., above, and circulate it together with other, relevant
documentation among the members of a rating committee, which normally has a
complement of five.There is no single, standing rating committee; rather there is a
committee for ach country we cover, or, in some cases, for each peer group of
banks in each country. The two analysts who visited the bank, did the analysis and
wrote the report are always members of its rating committee.
At the rating committee meeting the two analysts responsible for the work done so
far present the rest of the committee with the report they drafted, which has since
been seen by the bank and possibly amended, as explained above, to accord with
its comments. They also present relevant confidential data, which they have not
been able to include in the report, and peer group analyses comparing the bank
with its domestic and foreign peers. The ratings implied by the formula are not
treated as definitive: they are considered only as further input to the rating
decision so that there remains a strong subjective element in our final judgments- a
subjectivity tempered, we trust, by several years’ experience (allowing a reasoned
extrapolation of the future), by common sense and by specialized knowledge and
research.
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9. Dissemination (or non-dissemination) of the ratings
When a bank being rated for the first time has been informed of the decision of the
rating committee, it has no recourse to an appeal, but it does have the right to
decide whether it wishes our ratings to be made public and the rating report to be
sent to our subscribers. However, normally before launching ourselves into the
work involved in a new rating, which possibly also involves coverage of a country
which is new to us, we would have tried to provide the entity being rated with an
"indicative" rating. That is to say, on the basis of a brief analysis of the data
available to us we would provide a range of likely ratings within our rating scales
so that the bank being rated has from the start an approximate idea of what its
ratings will be. In the event that the bank does accept that publication should take
place, then the rating report and the ratings will be dispatched to our subscribers
who include over 1,200 major institutions worldwide. In addition, our ratings will
be made available to the public by means of the "wire" services, press releases, etc.
If the bank does not want the ratings published and the report disseminated, then
the project will be terminated, and regular subscribers will not be informed that we
have done rating work on the bank concerned.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Credit Rating Agencies) Regulations,
1999 empower SEBI to regulate CRAs operating in India. In fact, SEBI was one of
the first few regulators, globally, to put in place an effective and comprehensive
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regulation for CRAs. In contrast, the US market saw CRA regulations only
recently (in 2007), and the European Union is still in the process of framing its
regulations. SEBI‘s CRA regulations have been used as model by other regulators
in the emerging economies. In terms of the SEBI Regulations, a CRA has been
defined as a body corporate which is engaged in or proposes to be engaged in, the
business of rating of securities offered by way of public or rights issue. The term
―securities‖ has been defined under the Securities Contract (Regulation) Act,
1956. SEBI has also prescribed a Code of Conduct to be followed by the rating
agencies in the CRA Regulations. However, SEBI administers the activities of
CRAs with respect to their role in securities market only.
SEBI regulation for CRAs has been designed to ensure the following:
- Credible players enter this business (through stringent entry norms and eligibility
criteria )
- CRAs operate in a manner that enables them to issue objective and fair opinions
(through well-defined general obligations for CRAs)
- The applicant should be registered as a company under the Companies Act, 1956
and possess a minimum network of Rs.5 crore.
The following are some of the General Obligations specified in the CRA
regulations. CRAs are amongst the very few market intermediaries for which such
detailed operating guidelines have been prescribed under the regulations.
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CHAPTER - 5
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i. It has highly trained and professional staff that has better ability to assess risk.
ii. It has access to a lot of information which may not be publicly available.
3. Provides information at low cost: Most of the investors rely on the ratings
assigned by the ratings agencies while taking investment decisions. These ratings
are published in the form of reports and are available easily on the payment of
negligible price. It is not possible for the investors to assess the creditworthiness of
the companies on their own.
7. Formation of public policy: Once the debt securities are rated professionally, it
would be easier to formulate public policy guidelines as to the eligibility of
securities to be included in different kinds of institutional port-folio.
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CHAPTER - 6
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issuer's purposes). Studies by the Bond Market Association note that
many institutional investors now prefer that a debt issuance have at least three
ratings.
Issuers also use credit ratings in certain structured finance transactions. For
example, a company with a very high credit rating wishing to undertake a
particularly risky research project could create a legally separate entity with certain
assets that would own and conduct the research work. This "special purpose entity"
would then assume all of the research risk and issue its own debt securities to
finance the research. The SPE's credit rating likely would be very low, and the
issuer would have to pay a high rate of return on the bonds issued.
However, this risk would not lower the parent company's overall credit rating
because the SPE would be a legally separate entity. Conversely, a company with a
low credit rating might be able to borrow on better terms if it were to form an SPE
and transfer significant assets to that subsidiary and issue secured debt securities.
That way, if the venture were to fail, the lenders would have recourse to the assets
owned by the SPE. This would lower the interest rate the SPE would need to pay
as part of the debt offering.
The same issuer also may have different credit ratings for different bonds. This
difference results from the bond's structure, how it is secured, and the degree to
which the bond is subordinated to other debt. Many larger CRAs offer "credit
rating advisory services" that essentially advise an issuer on how to structure its
bond offerings and SPEs so as to achieve a given credit rating for a certain debt
tranche. This creates a potential conflict of interest, of course, as the CRA may feel
obligated to provide the issuer with that given rating if the issuer followed its
advice on structuring the offering. Some CRAs avoid this conflict by refusing to
rate debt offerings for which its advisory services were sought.
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CHAPTER - 7
A. Benefits to Investors
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highly rated issue gives an assurance to the investors of safety of Investments and
minimizes his risk.
2. Recognition of risk and returns. Credit rating symbols indicate both the returns
expected and the risk attached to a particular issue. It becomes easier for the
investor to understand the worth of the issuer company just by looking at the
symbol because the issue is backed by the financial strength of the company.
3. Freedom of investment decisions. Investors need not seek advice from the stock
brokers, merchant bankers or the portfolio managers before making investments.
Investors today are free and independent to take investment decisions themselves.
They base their decisions on rating symbols attached to a particular security. Each
rating symbol assigned to a particular investment suggests the creditworthiness of
the investment and indicates the degree of risk involved in it.
5. Dependable credibility of issuer. Absence of any link between the rater and rated
firm ensures dependable credibility of issuer and attracts investors. As rating
agency has no vested interest in issue to be rated, and has no business connections
or links with the Board of Directors.
In other words, it operates independent of the issuer company; the rating given by
it is always accepted by the investors.
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6. Easy understanding of investment proposals. Investors require no analytical
knowledge on their part about the issuer company. Depending upon rating symbols
assigned by the rating agencies they can proceed with decisions to make
investment in any particular rated security of a company.
A company who has got its credit instrument or security rated is benefited in the
following ways.
1. Easy to raise resources. A company with highly rated instrument finds it easy to
raise resources from the public. Even though investors in different sections of the
society understand the degree of risk and uncertainty attached to a particular
security but they still get attracted towards the highly rated instruments.
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company can reduce the cost of borrowings by quoting lesser interest on those
fixed deposits or debentures or bonds, which are highly rated.
3. Reduced cost of public issues. A company with highly rated instruments has to
make least efforts in raising funds through public. It can reduce its expenditure on
press and publicity. Rating
facilitates best pricing and
timing of issues.
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While entering into market, investors rely more on the rating grades than on ‘name
recognition’.
CHAPTER - 8
1. AREA OF WORK
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Percentage
8%
Mumbai
17% Kolkata
Delhi
Chennai
5%
70%
INTERPRETATION: The above pie chart shows the number of Companies out
of 20, according to the area (states) in which they operate. In blue i.e. in Mumbai,
70%, Delhi in Green in 17%, Chennai in Purple is 8% and Kolkata in Red i 5%.
The majority of the companies are operating in Mumbai.
2. AREAS OF BUSINESS
AREAS PERCENTAGE
Food Processing 30%
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Chemicals and allied product 10%
Logistics 20%
Banks 25%
Other 15%
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CREDIT RATING?
10%
YES
NO
90%
INTERPRETATION: The above pie chart shows that 90% of the companies
knows about Credit Rating, infact they are aware about it and rest 10% are
unaware about it. So the majority thus know about Credit Rating. This bring the
significance of Credit Rating and this project.
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AGENICIES
SMERA
ONIRCA
FITCH AGENICIES
CARE
ICRA
CRESIL
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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YES 70%
NO 30%
INTERPRETATION: In the above table 70% of the companies have been rated
by the Rating Agency. This means here these companies are well aware about
Credit Rating. 30% of the Companies have not been rated by Rating Agency.
Here, the companies are also not aware about Rating Agency.
In short, the above table explain the awareness of Credit Rating Agency in India.
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BANKS
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25% BANKS
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
SBI
KOTAK
PNB
ICICI
Others
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Credit Limit
7
4 Credit Limit
0
Less than 10 10 lakhs to 30 30 lakhs to 50 50 lakhs to 70 1 lakhs to 1
lakhs lakhs lakhs lakhs crore
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8. HOW MUCH WOULD BE APPROXIMATE ANNUAL SALES
TURNOVER
Sales
10% 10%
30% Less than 40 lakhs
20% 40 lakhs - 70 lakhs
70 lakhs - 1 crore
1 crore - 2 crore
2 crore and above
30%
INTERPRETATION - The above pie diagram shows the Annual Sales Turnover
of the companies. 30% of the companies has a annual sales over upto 70 lakhs - 1
crore. 30% of the companies again have an anuual sales over upto 1 core - 2
crore. 20% of the companies have a anuual sales over upto 40 lakhs to 70 laks.
10% of the companies have an annual sales over upto 2 crores and above. At last
10% of the companies have annual sales turnover upto less than 40lakhs.
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9. HOW MUCH OF YOUR PRODUCTS ARE ACTUALLY EXPORTED
NO EXPORTS
(30%)
5% - 10%
(15%)
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10. DO YOU INTEND TO EXPAND THE OVERALL CAPACITY IN
FUTURE? IF YES, THEN UPTO WHAT EXTENT OF PRESENT
OVERALL CAPACITY DO YOU PLAN TO INCREASE?
CAPACITY
10
9
8
7
6
5 CAPACITY
4
3
2
1
0
0 - 5%
5 - 10%
10% - 30%
30% and abov
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11. DO YOU AVAIL LOANS FROM MANAGING BUSINESS?
FACILITIES INCLUDING NON FUN BASED. IF YES, PURPOSE OF
FUND?
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Series3
Series2
20%
Series1
15%
10%
5%
0%
Working Capital Expansion DiversificationMachineary Maintenance
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12. HOW MUCH INTEREST DO YOU PAYT AGAINST YOUR LOANS
FROM BANK
Percentage
Below 9%
9%-11%
11-14%
Above 14%
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13. HAS YOUR COMPANY ACQUIRED ANY CERTIFICATION FOR
ADOPTING ANY QUALTIY STANDARDS
ISO 9000 0%
ISO 14000 0%
Any Other (Specify) 0%
No Having 100%
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14. DO YOU USE SERVICE OF PROFESSION EXPERT
YES
80%
NO
20%
INTERPRETATION: Here upto 80% of the companies use services of
Professional Expert which is great. The remaining 20% does not take any kind of
advice from any professional Expert which is bad.
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15. HOW IS THE PROSPECT OF THE INDUSTRY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM UNITS
Percentage
Excellent
Moderate
Bad
Good
Not Good
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CHAPTER - 9
CONCLUSION
Credit Rating is thus the need of the time since investors should be equipped with
easy methods to make their investment decisions. If ratings are assigned in a
proper, systematic, transparent way, then it will be a boon for investors and will go
a long way in making the investment world a safe place. It is an undisputed fact
that CRAs play a key role in financial markets by helping to reduce the
informative gap between lenders and investors, on one side, and issuers on the
other side, about the creditworthiness of companies (corporate risk) or countries
(sovereign risk).
An investment grade rating can put a security, company or country on the global
radar, attracting foreign money and boosting a nations economy. Indeed, for
emerging market economies, the credit rating is the key to showing their
worthiness of money from foreign investors. Credit rating helps the market
regulators in promoting stability and efficiency in the securities market. Ratings
make markets more efficient and transparent.
Investors should not forget the Contract Law principle of ‘Caveat Emptor’.
Caveat Emptor means ‘let the buyer beware’. It should be forgotten that everything
including returns cannot be guaranteed and investments cannot be risk-free.
Investors should observe caution while investing their money and be aware
themselves before taking their investment decisions. Investors should self study the
facts and information available about the investment products and the creditability
of the issuers, before zeroing on their decisions.
Investors must understand that the objective of assessment for IPO Grading and
Credit Rating are very different; though the basis elements of the analysis are
same. IPO Grading assesses factors from equity-holder's perspective and is a
point in time exercise, whereas Credit Rating assesses factors from debt- holders
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perspective and usually requires recurring surveillance over the life of the
instrument.
CRISIL, ICRA & CARE, the three major rating agencies are handling
90%- 95% of the business of credit rating promoted by financial institutions who
while advancing loans take the help of credit rating agencies to get the company
rated. All these agencies have continued to expand their activities in recent years.
They must also be updated about the reforms in the financial sector which can have
a impact on the businesses of these agencies as the market is volatile in nature
especially in case of debt instrument like bonds.
Another aspect is regarding the procedure or the methodology that these rating
agencies follow for rating. Sometimes companies not satisfied with rating of one
agency approach use another rating agency for better rating. For this purpose the
rating process or procedure followed for rating must be relevant and accurate.
Rating agencies should not only take into consideration past & present
performance; the projected future performance must not be ignored.
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ANNUEXURE
Q 2 Area of business
(a)Food processing
(b)Chemical & allied products
(c)Cotton gin. &Pressing
(d)Rice Sheller
(e)And others
Q.7 How much would be your credit limit with the banks? (In rupees)
(a)Less than 10 lakh
(b)10 to 30 lakh
(c)30 to 50 lakh
(d)50 to 75 lakh
(e)75 to 1 crore and above
Ques.8 How much would be approximate annual sales turnover? (In rupees)
(a)Less 40 lakh
(b)40 lakh to 70 lakh
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(c)70 lakh to1 crore
(d) 1 crore to 2 crore
(e)2 crore and above
Q.9 How much of your products are actually exported? (In percentage)
(a)No exports
(b) Up to 5%
(c)Between 5% - 10%
(d)10% and over
Q.10 Do you intend to expand the overall capacity in the future? If yes, to what
extent of present overall capacity do you plan to increase? (In percentage)(a)0-5%
(b)5-10%
(c)10-30%
(d)Above 30%
Q.11 Do you avail loans for managing business? Facilities including non-fund
based.If yes, purpose of funds
(a) Working Capital
(b) Expansion
(c) Diversification
(d) Machinery Maintenance
(e) Machinery Purchase
Q.12 How much interest do you pay against your loan from banks? (In percentage)
(a)Below 9%
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(b)9-11%
(c)11-14%
(d)Above 14%
Q.13 Has your company acquired any certification for adopting qualitystandards?
(Multiple Option possible)
(a)ISO 9000
(b)ISO 14000
(c)Any other (Specify)
(d)No Having
Q.15How is prospect of the industry in near future for the small & mediumunits?
(a)Excellent
(b)Moderate
(c)Bad
(d)Good
(e)Not good
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Bibliography
www.care.com
www.careindia.com
www.D&B.com
www.sebi.gov.in
www.moneycontrol.com
www.icraindia.com
www.rbi.org.in
www.economictimes.com
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Thank you
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