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Cost Estimating in Construction Projects: The Relationship Between Cost and

Macro Economic Indicators

Conference Paper · November 2020

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 Cost Estimating in Construction Projects: The Relationship
Between Cost and Macro Economic Indicators

E. Yazıcıoğlu
Istanbul Technical University, Department of Architecture, Istanbul, Turkey
edizyazicioglu@itu.edu.tr

A. Kanoğlu
Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Art, Design and Architecture,
Antalya, Turkey
alaattin.kanoglu@alanya.edu.tr

Abstract
Accuracy of cost estimating in construction projects is one of the most fundamental issues for
each of the stakeholders involved in projects in the construction sector. One of the main
approaches to cost estimation is based on the use of macroeconomic indicators. In this study,
an approach to integrate the use of indicators related to macroeconomics with artificial
intelligence in cost estimating and to create the infrastructure of cost estimating tools that are
as strong theoretically as practically is examined. For this purpose, the official square meter
cost data of construction projects of reinforced concrete buildings between the years 2010-
2020 in Turkey have been used to investigate the above stated relationship between economic
indicators and cost of the projects, to demonstrate the relationship between them.
Consequently, it has been concluded that economic indicators can be used in the determination
of costs of construction projects. Furthermore, this approach provides a more effective cost
estimating method compared with the other approaches/models proposed on this subject since
it allows to determine much more relationships between economic indicators and cost with the
support of artificial intelligence tools in practical dimension.

Keywords: Construction projects, cost estimating, economic indicators, reinforced concrete buildings,
cost per square meter, artificial intelligence.

Introduction
The cost estimate of projects closest to the actual cost is one of the main challenges that
stakeholders of construction projects face. While Bledsoe (1992) underlines that there are
studies on cost estimates to be adopted at various stages of projects and intended to prove many
arguments/hypotheses on accuracy/precision, Zakwan and Ara (2011) argue that there are lots
of tools and methods for cost estimation.
Scientific studies on macroeconomic indicators in construction business analyze the dynamics
of the business (Akintoye and Hardcastle, 1998). Macroeconomic indicators are one of the
methodologies to estimate construction costs, and there are many scientific studies on them.
Among them are studies by Oteng-Abayie and Dramani (2018), Arıoğlu and Girgin (2003),
Olga and Antonios (2019) and Diler (2018). While the aforementioned studies are focused on
the correlation between any situation in construction business and macroeconomic indicators
in their context, they do not address how macroeconomic indicators can be utilized as a cost
estimation instrument. In addition, the aforementioned studies are limited in context, and as
they do not consider all the factors that affect costs of construction projects, they do not offer
any practice and means to make inferences, and any solution on how to effectively/reliably
update cost estimation data as it remains a major problem.

The large-scale and complicated nature of modern construction projects and constant and
instantaneous changes in today's globalized world leave no choice but to continuously revise
original cost estimates of construction projects at a short notice, and make the revisability of
cost estimates a major problem.

Objective: The aim of this study is not only to reveal the correlation between construction costs
and foreign exchange rates as a well-known case but also to set forth how to correlate cost
items/cost components, which are generated based on a core analysis of items of construction
costs, with economic indicators based on a sample. This study will establish a cost estimate and
revision model depending on macroeconomic indicators irrespective of cost estimation
methods. This will help outline a paradigmatic and conceptual model of cost estimation that
can be configured by artificial intelligence to estimate and revise construction costs based on
economic indicators. Relying on the establishment of a correlation between project cost
estimates and continuously monitorable/accessible economic indicators, this revisable cost
estimation model will provide a major input to minimize deviations from original cost
estimates. This study is an attempt to combine the use of macroeconomic indicators and
artificial intelligence for cost estimation, and address an approach that can serve as a basis for
the infrastructure of cost estimation instruments that are theoretically and practically favorable
to use. Key concepts, opportunities and barriers of this approach intended to suggest such an
input are going to be addressed, and a proposed model is going to be outlined as a part of the
study.
Scope: For the scope of the study, a data set that enables to make a significant and
weighted/high-rate correlation with macroeconomic indicators generated as a result of country-
wide complicated and dynamic relations. In this context, the scope of the study was designated
as residential buildings constructed based on a reinforced concrete load-bearing system, and
this is based on the fact that residential buildings rank first among all types of buildings in
Turkey, making up 84.62% of them, and 99% of the residential buildings are equipped with a
reinforced concrete frame/reinforced concrete load-bearing system (TURKSTAT, 2020). The
study will attempt to achieve consistency of a chain ranging from a macroeconomic scale to the
extreme/core cost within the boundaries of the aforementioned limitations. This research is
limited to investigating the relationship between the economic indicator of foreign currency
(USD) and the cost per square meter of housing. However, it should not be forgotten that it is
open to expandable research on cost relations with other economic indicators.
Method: An economic indicator-construction cost relation will be mapped out based on
weight/rate of macroeconomic building cost estimates to be addressed as a part of the study to
establish a significant and consistent correlation between macroeconomic indicators, which are
outputs of complicated correlations at a macroeconomic level, and construction costs. In other
words, a chain of relations will be established based on a weighted/high-rate data set. This will
show that economic indicators can serve to make construction cost estimates, and an effective
cost estimation method can be introduced with a lot more correlations between economic
indicators and costs based on means of artificial intelligence. A sample structure was created
for learning with the decision tree, which is one of the artificial intelligence methods, using
statistical distribution, arithmetic mean and correlation methods.

Data Set: The data of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and publicly-available data of the
Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, the Presidency of Strategy and Budget, the
Turkish Central Bank, and trade unions from 2010 to 2020 are going to be utilized for the study.
Details on sources of data and calculations are as set out in TURKSTAT's reference statement
on data (TURKSTAT, 2020a). The data of the study are data released in official documents,
and serve as a basis for major legal procedures such as taxation (Turkish Official Gazette, 1970).
Testing the reliability of the data is beyond the scope and purpose of this study. The structure
of the primary data set used in the study and the methods used in its creation are explained in
TURKSTAT resources. On the other hand, it is not possible to access primary sources of
secondary data, some primary data have been accessed for the purpose of verifying secondary
data; However, disclosure of these data according to The Turkish Penal Code (TPC) no.5237
embodies "the reveal of confidential business information and documents" as a crime could not
be presented because it is a commercial secret.

Economic indicators, which are a key part of the data set to be utilized as a part of the study,
are statistics about economic operations and data that enables to analyze those operations and
make prospective estimations. In addition, economic indicators have the potential to make
significant inferences as they are generated by a statistical analysis of many data. Such
statistical data are collected by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development
(OECD), the Organization for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC) and many statistical
institutes from a great deal of sources. The main economic indicators, which are established by
TURKSTAT in Turkey, are categorized by the TURKSTAT, and the Presidency of Strategy
and Budget based on national income, production, fixed capital investments, equilibrium of
foreign trade and payments, money, bank, capital market, prices, employment and fees.

In this study, it has been concluded that the building type is residential and reinforced concrete
structural system is used in residential buildings, with statistical distribution based on
TURKSTAT construction m2 cost data between 2010 and 2020. Reinforced concrete structural
system costs, data on 68 housing projects were analyzed and it was concluded that the statistical
distribution, steel and concrete costs were among the inputs that significantly affect the building
cost. When the inputs that constitute the cost in the production of steel and concrete with the
statistical distribution were examined, it was seen that the common and highest cost input was
the energy cost. When the acquisition of energy is investigated, it is concluded that foreign
dependency in energy is carried out with foreign currency (USD). In order to determine what
the root input cost of the construction m2 cost is dependent on foreign currency (USD), by
selecting the 'luxury housing m2 cost' data, which includes more imported inputs, from the
average annual exchange rate values between 2010-2020 and the housing cost data between
2010-2020. The correlation between exchange rate-m2 housing cost has been calculated. In
order to question the continuity of the dependency relationship between the exchange rate and
the cost of housing, a comparison was made with the exchange rate housing m2 cost data
between 1986-1993 for a reinforced concrete house. In conclusion, it has been revealed that the
strong relationship between the exchange rate and housing m2 cost with the correlation values
in the graphical representations of 2010-2020 existed in the past and continues today, and a cost
estimation model based on this strong relationship can be suggested.
 Establishment of a Correlation between Macroeconomic Indicators and
Items of Cost
Main cost items are composed of production inputs as it is well known. Once a cost correlation
chain is formed based on items of production with the highest rate of cost, it is possible to draw
up a cost correlation map that typifies the cost. To define this cost correlation map based on a
sample of residential buildings constructed by a reinforced concrete load-bearing system
designated as the scope of the study, the main production items of cost and economic indicators
likely to be correlated were analyzed, and it led to the following results:

Residential construction: Residential buildings make up 80.35% to 87.08% of buildings

constructed in Turkey according to the figures of the TURKSTAT on New and Additional
Buildings Constructed for Intended Use Based on Building Permits Issued from 2002 to 2020.
The mean value of 19-year data shows that residential buildings make up 84.62% of all types
of buildings, ranking first (TURKSTAT, 2020b).

Reinforced concrete frame buildings in residential construction: The data of the TURKSTAT
on Intended Use and Load-Bearing System by the Type of Building Permit from 2015 to 2020
were collected to analyze residential buildings in Turkey. The figures show that 97% of all
buildings are of reinforced concrete frame, and the rate goes up to 99% in residential buildings.

Reinforced concrete load-bearing system: Systems that are commonly known as reinforced
concrete skeleton structural systems are load-bearing systems where static and dynamic loads
are carried by structural elements such as floor cover, columns, beams and foundation, and they
are shifted onto the foundation. As it is known, a building cost is composed of many items of
cost. The literature review shows that the cost of a reinforced concrete load-bearing system is
much higher than the cost of other items. Seyfi et al. (2017) reported that the cost rate of a load-
bearing system for residences of 4 to 8 floors is 34.52% on average as presented in Table 1.
Esra et al. (2004) compared costs of masonry, wooden and reinforced concrete load-bearing
systems and reported that the cost rate of the reinforced concrete load-bearing system is 26%.
In a way to corroborate the aforementioned results, Saner (1993) reported that the cost ratio of
reinforced concrete load-bearing systems to other costs is over 40% as in Pişirici (1981) research

Main Cost Min. Cost Avrg. Cost Max. Cost Min. Average. Max.
Percentage Percentage Percentage

Items (TL/m²) (TL/m²) (TL/m²) (%) (%) (%)

Rough Works
219,323 372,688 516,603 24,28% 34,52% 49,54%
Finishings
317,036 472,685 778,635 33,30% 43,20% 54,44%
Electr. Wiring
24,245 61,621 125,014 2,87% 5,53% 8,64%
Gas Inst.
20,550 63,387 134,295 2,19% 5,74% 8,40%
Plumbing
35,076 73,165 136,452 3,60% 6,60% 10,00%
Elevator
15,428 50,379 105,56 1,86% 4,42% 7,69%
Total
- 1.093,93 - - 100% -

Table 1: Analysis of Main Items of Cost (Seyfi et al. 2017)

The figures revealed that it is possible to make a projection about the total construction cost
based on the cost of a reinforced concrete load-bearing system, which has a large share in total
cost. In addition, it was considered that simple and computable items of cost such as concrete,
steel and mould in this sample will provide an advantage to establish a clear correlation between
economic indicators and items of cost.

Items of cost for a reinforced concrete load-bearing system: Ready-mixed concrete, ribbed
steel, hollow bricks, wooden moulds and supporting scaffolds were regarded as items of
construction costs with a reference by the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization in a
dissertation titled "Estimating the Cost of a Reinforced Concrete Load-Bearing System Based
on Artificial Neural Networks" by Ünsal (2017) who analyzed the cost of reinforced concrete
load-bearing systems. Performed based on the cost estimates of reinforced concrete load-
bearing systems in 68 actual projects included in the dissertation, the study revealed the
following results that are not indicated in the aforementioned dissertation:
▪ It was reported that 54 out of 68 projects (79.41%) were built on C30/37 ready-mixed
concrete, Ø8- Ø12 mm ribbed steel and Ø14- Ø32 mm ribbed steel.
▪ Of the total cost computed based on all items of cost, their unit prices and quantities, it
was reported that ribbed steel made up 31.71% of the total cost, and the ready-mixed
concrete made up 22.98% of the total cost, and both combined made up 54.69% of the
total cost.
These results show that the cost of ribbed steel and ready-mixed concrete, two items of cost for
a reinforced concrete load-bearing system, is higher than the cost of all the other items of cost
such as moulds, scaffolds and hollow bricks. Performed to establish a correlation between the
core cost and economic indicators, the analysis on the cost of ribbed steel and ready-mixed
concrete led to the following results:

Cost of steel: As for items of cost in steel production, steel as a raw material ranks first and
electricity energy cost ranks second making up 15 to 25% of the total cost. It is reported that
more than 50% of primary raw materials needed for Energy Efficiency Works in Iron & Steel
Industry are imported (Turkish Ministry of Development, 2014) This shows a direct correlation
with foreign exchange rates as steel as a raw material and electricity rely on importation.

Cost of ready-mixed concrete: "Aggregate, which makes up 75% of ready-mixed concrete, is

produced naturally from coasts and river beds or artificially from stone crushers. The cost of
energy spent on machines operated to produce aggregate and use for concrete mix, and of the
energy spent for shipment is equal to the total energy cost of concrete production. However, it
is the energy spent for cement production that takes the largest share of energy consumed for
concrete production. The energy spent for cement production is equal to over 90% of the energy
spent for concrete production (TUBITAK MAM, 2018). That is why cement costs were
analyzed.

Cost of cement: Items of cost for cement production, which is one of the items of production
cost for reinforced concrete load-bearing systems, are other extreme-core items of cost, and
items of cost that enables to make a correlation for economic indicators. An analysis on the
items of cost for cement production shows that fuel and energy costs made up 33% to 40.7% of
the total cost in cement production described as dry and wet systems from 1964 to 1968, having
the largest share of cost compared to others (MPM, 1970). The Report of the Ministry of
Science, Industry and Technology on Cement Industry (2013) indicates that fuel and electricity
costs have the largest share in total cost, and fuel costs currently make up 38% of the total cost
while electricity costs make up 21% of the total cost. In addition, raw materials and auxiliary
materials makes up 9.60%, Laborship is 9.40%, amortization is 7.00% and other expenses are
14.90%. The figures show that fuel and electricity costs in total, which are energy costs in other
words, amount to 59.10% of the total cost. Despite saving on fuel and energy over time thanks
to cutting-edge technologies that serve for production, it is still the top item of cost for energy,
and likely to remain so in the future. These results are repeated in a verifiable way and detailed
in terms of the types of fuel used for energy in Çevik (2016) research. These results show that
energy input cost is the main item of cost that is decisive for the cost of cement production. One
can infer from this result that the cost reinforced cement namely the cost of reinforced cement
construction has a clear and significant correlation with the cost of energy.

Energy cost: As for how energy is supplied, Turkey seems to be forced to keep importing
energy as it meets more than 75% of its energy needs from imported resources (Özalp, 2019).
Reliance on import brings about foreign currency as a means of purchase. Apart from imported
resources, the unit price of purchase for energy to be generated in Turkey under the Law No.
5346 of 5/15/2005 on Utilization of Renewable Energy Resources for the Purpose of Generating
Electrical Energy is also based on USD cent. In addition, energy prices tend to be based on
USD as it is acknowledged as a reserve currency in the global economy. As a result, the fact
that Turkey meets whooping 75% of its energy needs from imported sources in USD clearly
reveals correlation with USD as one of the macroeconomic indicators. Likewise, Bilirgen
(2019) reported that electricity, oil and gas prices are set based on foreign exchange rates and
supply-demand equilibrium. In an article intended to provide data for energy producers and
titled “High exchange rates multiple energy costs”, Oral (2017) reported that the effect of USD
as a foreign currency on energy prices is dramatic.

Economic indicator: Foreign currency is an economic indicator that projects many economic-
political relations at a global and domestic scale. In addition, the foreign currency (USD) is an
economic indicator for the cost chain correlation established in the light of the data in the study.
The fact a foreign exchange rate is a data to be instantly revised based on economic indicators
provides a means to roll out an instantly-revisable cost estimation model based on foreign
exchange rates.

Figure 1: Items of Weighted/High-Rate Construction Cost and Macroeconomic Indicators

Macro-economic indicators in the levels of literature survey revealed the relationship to the cost
of construction, was built between building types in Turkey was seen as having the highest
share of residential construction type. In the total cost of housing construction, it has been
observed that the cost of the structural system has the largest share, and the cost of the structural
system has the highest share in the cost of steel and concrete. It was concluded that the energy
cost has the highest share in the steel and concrete cost inputs. Thus, the relationship chain
extending from macroeconomic level to cost input level has been reached. The relationship
chain expressing the artificial intelligence decision tree model is shown in Figure 1.

The analytical results of building cost estimates point to a correlation between the cost of a
building and foreign exchange rate, one of the macroeconomic indicators. Revealing a
correlation between the cost of a building and foreign currency, this result shows that economic
indicators can serve as a means of cost estimation. Proving the established relation by tangible
data; the relationship between m2 costs by years and the exchange rate of a reinforced concrete
housing project, which is taken as an example in the thesis study based on the real project data
between 1986-1993, is stated. Figure 2: correlation between USD and cost per m2 1986 is very
high, such as 0,998902 (99%) (Yazıcıoğlu, 1994).

1200000 12000
1000000 10000
800000 8000
600000 6000
COST PER M2

USD-TL
400000 4000
200000 2000
0 0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
USD-TL 677 866 1356 2138 2634 4015 6995 11212
Cost per M2 40727 56795 90003 148663 239865 368374 613867 1039408

Figure 2: 1986-1993 years USD-Cost per M2

In this study, based on data between 2010 and 2020, it is stated that the relation between
reinforced concrete housing m2 building cost and exchange rate have continued strong and
continuously. It is seen that the correlation between USD and cost per m2 between 2010 and
2020 has continued at a very high level such as 0.926683 (92%) Figure 3.

7 2500
6
2000
5
4 1500
COST PER M2

3 1000
USD-TL

2
500
1
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
USD-TL 1,5084 1,6788 1,8007 1,9061 2,1921 2,7258 3,0277 3,6557 4,8241 5,6826 6,5004
Cost per M2 876,7 1112,34 966,65 1090,67 1175,74 1221,94 1302,1 1744,28 1923,94 1735,77 1905,88

Figure 3: 2010-2020 years USD-Cost per m2

The results of the analysis of building cost data in both 1986-1993 and 2010-2020 show that
the relation between building cost and macroeconomic indicators exists in the past and present.
In another study that supports these results, it is stated that there is a bidirectional causality
relation between exchange rates and house sales prices, and imported raw materials, which can
be a cost element in house sales prices, are affected by the exchange rate of the country (Diler,
2018). All these results evidently demonstrate that the exchange rate can be used from
macroeconomic indicators in a model for cost estimation and updating.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The study not only introduces a new approach to cost estimation methods that are already
available but also enables to revise cost estimates irrespective of cost estimation methodologies.
This will improve the efficacy of cost control and management.

Based on this study, one can argue that more correlations between items of cost and economic
indicators and introduction of artificial intelligence would lead to a much more effective and
revisable cost estimation model. Each correlation with economic indicators constitutes a part
of a cost estimation model that enables to expand its scope, and a cost estimation model would
improve in efficacy and precision of results as more and more correlations with economic
indicators are established.

As a similar set of rules established for the sample of this study can be utilized as a method to
correlate different items of cost with different economic indicators, As Makarov (2019) study
on the relationship between building materials and economic indicators points out, other
economic indicators and different cost levels, for example; In the case of researching and
expanding the effects of economic indicators on construction costs such as oil prices-insulation
material cost, unemployment values-labor cost, it will be possible to create a cost estimation
model for multiple economic indicators-cost relationship in cost estimation by revealing cross-
economic indicators and cost relations.

The results obtained from the weighted distribution of the data in the research from the
statistical methods exemplify the possibility of constructing a configurable artificial
intelligence model between economic indicators and construction costs with the "learning with
decision tree" methodology, which is one of the artificial intelligence methods. These results
obtained from the limited data set sampled in the research can be expanded to other economic
indicators and cost relationships at different levels (such as oil prices-insulation material cost,
oil prices-excavation costs, unemployment values-labor cost) through data mining methods. It
will provide the opportunity to construct more advanced decision tree learning models over the
new data sets created by the expansion of the data set. Integrated models in which decision tree
models are structured together to produce cross results will increase the efficiency of cost
estimation. In particular, online updatable structures to be established over computer networks
with instantly updatable data such as the exchange rate in the research sample will provide
instant monitoring of costs during the project process. As a result, the project will be able to
manage decision-making processes much more effectively.
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