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    Thayer, Contours of Emerging Global Order &trends

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    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    This 12-minute presentation considers three major themes: anarchial society, polarization (democracy -v- autocracy), and fragmentation (latticework architecture and multiplex global order). It concludes by highlighting the impact of ten future trends on global and regional order.

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    Thayer, Contours of Emerging Global Order &trends

    Uploaded by

    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    47 views12 pages
    This 12-minute presentation considers three major themes: anarchial society, polarization (democracy -v- autocracy), and fragmentation (latticework architecture and multiplex global order). It concludes by highlighting the impact of ten future trends on global and regional order.

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    Thayer, Contours of Emerging Global Order &Trends

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    This 12-minute presentation considers three major themes: anarchial society, polarization (democracy -v- autocracy), and fragmentation (latticework architecture and multiplex global order). It concludes by highlighting the impact of ten future trends on global and regional order.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    47 views12 pages

    Thayer, Contours of Emerging Global Order &trends

    Uploaded by

    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    This 12-minute presentation considers three major themes: anarchial society, polarization (democracy -v- autocracy), and fragmentation (latticework architecture and multiplex global order). It concludes by highlighting the impact of ten future trends on global and regional order.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 12

    Contours of Emerging

    Global Order & Trends

    Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


    Presentation to Seminar
    International Programme for Development and Stability,
    Institute of Strategic Studies Research and Analysis,
    National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan,
    September 24, 2024
    Overview
    US-West Perspective

    • Anarchial Society
    • Polarization
    • Democracy –v- Autocracy
    • Fragmentation
    • Latticework architecture
    • Multiplex Global Order
    • Trends
    Anarchical Society

    “a group of states, conscious of certain common


    interests and common values, form a society… [and]
    conceive themselves to be bound by a common set of
    rules in their relations with one another, and share in
    the working of common institutions.”
    Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in
    World Politics (1977)
    Anarchial Society and
    Global and Regional Order
    Balance of
    Power

    War
    Great Powers
    (armed conflict)

    International
    Diplomacy
    Law
    Polarization
    + IP 4
    Democracies -v- Autocracies
    Fragmentation

    How states
    voted on UN
    General
    Assembly
    Resolution to
    suspend Russia
    from Human
    Right Council
    April 2, 2022
    Blue – Yes, Orange = No, Yellow = abstain/no vote
    Latticework Architecture

    • Quad
    • Indo-Pacific 4
    • Trilateral
    US-Japan-ROK
    • Mini-lateral
    • Bilateral
    Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-
    Big-Story/Tighter-U.S.-Japan-alliance-is-
    unexpected-legacy-of-Kishida-Biden-era
    Multiplex Global Order

    Liberal international order is under challenge:


    Trends
    • Major power geopolitical tensions will persist
    • war in Ukraine
    • Trade fragmentation and decoupling
    • Global growth of 3.3% in 2025 is set to underperform
    in nearly 60 percent of economies, comprising over 80
    percent of the global population
    • Climate-related disasters
    • Migration
    Trends
    • Spread of disruptive technologies
    • Disinformation, AI, cyber and space
    • China’s military modernization
    • Intensification of US-China strategic rivalry
    • Greater involvement of EU/NATO in the Indo-Pacific
    • Nuclear technology proliferation
    • Russia-North Korea
    Contours of Emerging
    Global Order & Trends

    Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


    Presentation to Seminar
    International Programme for Development and Stability,
    Institute of Strategic Studies Research and Analysis,
    National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan,
    September 24, 2024

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