FLORIDA POLL:

TRUMP & SCOTT NARROWLY LEAD;

AMENDMENTS 3 & 4 HEAVILY
FAVORED
September 30, 2024
P: (929) 388-6585
E: info@victory-insights.com
W: victory-insights.com
: @VictoryPolling

Poll conducted September 22nd through 25th, 2024 among 600

likely general election voters throughout Florida. Maximum
margin of error is 4.4%. Responses were collected via Interactive
Voice Response and Text-To-Web. This poll was not
commissioned by any candidate or committee.

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Table of Contents
Cover Page 1
Table of Contents 2
Executive Summary 2
Presidential Ballot 3
US Senate Ballot 3
Public Figure Favorability 4
Amendment 3 Ballot 7
Amendment 4 Ballot 9
Contact Information 11

Executive Summary
For many years, Florida was considered one of along age and party lines: older voters and
the most important swing states in the country. In Republicans are less likely to support each
recent years, however, Florida has morphed into amendment.
more and more of a red state, and Republicans’ Although both amendments currently fall short
registration advantage in the state has been ever of the 60% support required to pass, both are
increasing. In 2024, many people are wondering: within striking distance due to the voters who
do Democrats even have a shot to win Florida? answered that they are undecided on each
Our polling suggests that it’s not outside the amendment. Amendment 4 would need to win over
realm of possibility. In fact, both the presidential at least 49% of undecided voters in order to reach
and US Senate races are well within the poll’s the 60% mark, while Amendment 3 would only
margin of error. Trump leads Harris by 2.1%, and need to win over 35% to do the same. If undecided
Scott leads Mucarsel-Powell by 0.8%. Scott’s voters pick sides at the same proportions that
underperformance can be attributed largely to a decided voters have so far, both amendments
lack of party loyalty, at least as compared to Trump. would pass.
Out of all four candidates (across the two races), Many Republican and Republican-friendly
voters are least enthusiastic about Scott, according groups are performing outreach that jointly attacks
to our Enthusiasm Index, explained in more detail both Amendment 3 and Amendment 4. While this
in the Public Figure Favorability section of this might make sense on its face, supporters of one
report. amendment aren’t necessarily supporters of the
Also on the ballot in 2024 are two contentious other. Here’s the data: 68% of those in favor of
constitutional amendments which have attracted Amendment 3 are also in favor of Amendment 4.
considerable attention and political spending. Each Conversely, 74% of those in favor of Amendment 4
amendment would require at least 60% support in are also in favor of Amendment 3. With our data
the November general election in order to be showing both amendments narrowly favored to
enacted. Our polling finds that Amendment 3, pass, the amendments’ detractors would be wise
which would effectively legalize recreational to at least consider more individualized outreach
marijuana in Florida, has 54% support. against each amendment.
Amendment 4, which would restrict the legislature
 Ben Galbraith
from imposing many limits on abortion, is slightly
Senior Pollster, Victory Insights
less popular, with 50% support. Further analysis
@_BenGalbraith
finds that support for both amendments tracks

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Presidential Ballot
Trump has a 2% advantage over Harris, a relatively narrow lead that falls within the poll’s
margin of error. Another 8% of voters remain undecided. The overwhelming majority of these
undecided voters are nonpartisans; 60% say they don’t tend to support either of the major
parties, while the other 40% are split approximately equally between Democrats and
Republicans.

Trump 46.9%

Harris 44.9%

Undecided 8.2%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

US Senate Ballot
The US Senate race is slightly closer than the presidential race. Scott holds a 0.8-point lead
over Mucarsel-Powell, a narrow advantage that obviously falls within the poll’s margin of
error. 12% of voters in this race remain undecided. Scott’s underperformance as compared
to Trump can be largely attributed to lower party loyalty: Trump pulls in 94% of the vote
among Republican-aligned voters, but Scott only gets 88% among the same group.

Scott 44.6%

Mucarsel-Powell 43.8%

Undecided 11.7%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

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Public Figure Favorability

Respondents were asked to rate Trump, Harris, Scott, and Mucarsel-Powell on a scale from
1 to 5, with 1 indicating an extremely negative opinion and 5 indicating an extremely positive
opinion. Voters could also indicate that they had no opinion of each candidate. This section
dives deep into the results of this question.

Overall Favorability
The chart below shows the overall breakdown of opinions on each candidate. Some details
and patterns immediately jump off the page, but we’ll be discussing those on the next page
of the report as we analyze seven metrics that, together, paint a comprehensive picture of
how voters feel about each candidate.
100.0%
4.3% 2.7% 4.8%
9.9%

90.0%

27.1%
35.1%
80.0% 32.0% 20.9%
38.5%

70.0%

11.3% 11.5%
60.0%
10.2%
6.3% 18.2%
6.6%
4.2% 14.4%
50.0% 5.3%
3.9% 4.7%

8.1% 6.0%
40.0% 4.5%

13.4%
30.0%

45.4% 47.3%
6.1%
20.0% 38.8% 39.4%

10.0% 19.0%

0.0%
Trump Harris Scott M.-Powell DeSantis

1 2 3 4 5 No Opinion

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Favorability Metrics
The table below displays how each candidate performed across our seven favorability
metrics. The best and worst values for each metric are highlighted in green and red,
respectively. An in-depth explanation of each metric, and its implications on the political
landscape, is provided below the chart and on the next page.

Trump Harris Scott M.-Powell DeSantis

Avg. Opinionated Rating 2.79 2.65 2.68 3.01 2.99

Favorability Ratio 46.1% 42.2% 42.7% 51.2% 49.9%

Positive Name ID 42.2% 38.4% 32.3% 26.3% 45.2%

Negative Name ID 49.3% 52.5% 43.4% 25.1% 45.3%

Total Name ID 95.7% 97.3% 90.1% 64.9% 95.2%

Enthusiasm Index 75.8% 70.6% 64.5% 69.2% 85.4%

Hatred Index 92.1% 89.9% 89.6% 75.8% 86.9%

1. Avg. Opinionated Rating: the average rating given to each candidate, among voters
who have any opinion of that candidate. This metric approximates likability. Harris
performs worst, with Scott just narrowly beating her. Mucarsel-Powell performs best,
but as you’ll see in several of the other metrics, that can largely be attributed to the
fact that not many voters know her, and those that do tend to be Democrats.
2. Favorability Ratio: the percentage of voters who have a positive opinion of each
candidate, as a proportion of all voters who have a positive or negative opinion of the
candidate. This metric is a slightly more generalized approximation of likability. Again,
Harris has the lowest Favorability Ratio, and Mucarsel-Powell has the highest.
3. Positive Name ID: the percentage of voters who have a positive opinion of each
candidate. DeSantis wins this, followed by Trump, Harris, Scott, and Mucarsel-Powell,
in that order.
4. Negative Name ID: the percentage of voters who have a negative opinion of each
candidate. Harris has the highest Negative Name ID, with more than 50% of voters
holding a negative opinion of her. Trump trails close behind at 49.3%. Mucarsel-
Powell is only disliked by 25.1% of the electorate.

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5. Total Name ID: the percentage of voters who have any opinion of each candidate.
Harris, Trump, and DeSantis unsurprisingly have near-ubiquitous Total Name ID,
while only 90% of voters have an opinion of Scott, and only 65% of voters have an
opinion of Mucarsel-Powell, far less than any other candidate.
6. Enthusiasm Index: the percentage of voters who rated each candidate a “5” out of 5,
as a proportion of voters holding a positive opinion of each candidate. This metric
answers the question: “How fiercely do the candidate’s supporters support him/her?”
DeSantis is the clear leader here with 85%. Trump is next with 76%, followed by
Harris, Mucarsel-Powell, and eventually Scott, who has the lowest Enthusiasm Index
of the five candidates included in the survey.
7. Hatred Index: the opposite of the Enthusiasm Index, this metric refers to the
percentage of voters who rated each candidate a “1” out of 5, as a proportion of
voters holding a negative opinion of each candidate. This metric answers the
question: “How fiercely do the candidate’s detractors dislike him/her?”
Unsurprisingly, Trump’s detractors are the fiercest, followed by Harris, Scott,
DeSantis, and finally Mucarsel-Powell.

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Amendment 3
We asked respondents whether they planned to vote in favor or against Amendment 3
which, if passed, would legalize recreational marijuana in the state. The measure would
need to receive at least 60% support in November in order to take effect.

Overall Amendment 3 Ballot

Though support for Amendment 3 still lags behind the 60% threshold, it’s clear that voters
heavily favor it. 54% of voters say they plan to vote in favor of Amendment 3, while only 29%
say they plan to vote against it. Another 17% of voters are undecided on the matter, giving
ample opportunity to pick up the remaining 6% support needed to pass the measure.

60.0%

54.1%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0% 29.2%

20.0%
16.7%

10.0%

0.0%
In Favor Against Undecided

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Amendment 3 Ballot by Party Affiliation

The chart below shows a breakdown of how voters of different political affiliations plan to
vote on Amendment 3. Republicans only narrowly oppose it (-4%), while nonpartisans clearly
favor it (+20%) and Democrats are overwhelmingly in support of it (+58%).

Republican Party 39% 17% 43%

Neither Party 49% 22% 29%

Democratic Party 72% 14% 14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

In Favor Undecided Against

Amendment 3 Ballot by Age Group

Younger voters are more likely to support Amendment 3 than older voters are, though all
age groups lean in favor of the amendment. The chart below shows a breakdown of the
Amendment 3 Ballot by age group.

18 to 49 63% 13% 23%

50 to 64 57% 16% 28%

65+ 43% 21% 36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
In Favor Undecided Against

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Amendment 4
We asked respondents whether they planned to vote in favor or against Amendment 4
which, if passed, would prevent the state from imposing abortion restrictions that apply
before an unborn baby is viable, or when the mother’s life is threatened. The measure would
also need to receive at least 60% support in order to take effect.

Overall Amendment 4 Ballot

The chart below displays the overall results of this question. About half of voters say they
plan to vote in favor of Amendment 4. This is lower than the support for Amendment 3, and
well below the 60% threshold needed to pass, but it’s important to note that more than 1 in
5 voters remain undecided, providing ample opportunity for the amendment to pick up
another ~10% support in order to reach the threshold.
60.0%

49.7%
50.0%

40.0%

30.0% 29.2%

21.2%
20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
In Favor Against Undecided

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Amendment 4 Ballot by Party Affiliation

The chart below shows the Amendment 4 ballot broken down by party affiliation.
Republicans make up the lion’s share of opposition to the amendment, with about half of
Republican-identifying voters opposing Amendment 4, and only 23% supporting it. However,
a majority of nonpartisans and the vast majority of Democrats support the measure.

Republican Party 23% 29% 48%

Neither Party 57% 24% 19%

Democratic Party 76% 12% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

In Favor Undecided Against

Amendment 4 Ballot by Age Group

While the ballot differences across age groups are less drastic than across party lines, a
clear trend emerges nonetheless. Generally, the older the voter, the less likely they are to
support Amendment 4 (and, unsurprisingly, the more likely they are to oppose it).

18 to 49 55% 18% 27%

50 to 64 49% 21% 30%

65+ 45% 24% 30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
In Favor Undecided Against

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@VictoryPolling
info@victory-insights.com
victory-insights.com
(929) 388-6585

www.victory-insights.com