Data Mining

Classification: Alternative Techniques

Bayesian Classifiers

Introduction to Data𝑝 Mining, 2nd Edition

by
Tan, Steinbach, Karpatne, Kumar

Bayes Classifier

• A probabilistic framework for solving classification

problems
• Conditional Probability: P( X , Y )
P(Y | X ) 
P( X )
P( X , Y )
P( X | Y ) 
P(Y )
• Bayes theorem:
P( X | Y ) P(Y )
P(Y | X ) 
P( X )

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 Using Bayes Theorem for Classification

• Consider each attribute and class

label as random variables
• Given a record with attributes (X1,
X2,…, Xd), the goal is to predict
class Y c c c
Tid Refund Marital Taxable
Status Income Evade

1 Yes Single 125K No

– Specifically, we want to find the value of
2 No Married 100K No
Y that maximizes P(Y| X1, X2,…, Xd )
3 No Single 70K No
4 Yes Married 120K No
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
• Can we estimate P(Y| X1, X2,…, Xd ) 6 No Married 60K No
directly from data? 7 Yes Divorced 220K No
8 No Single 85K Yes
9 No Married 75K No
10 No Single 90K Yes
10

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Using Bayes Theorem for Classification

• Approach:
– compute posterior probability P(Y | X1, X2, …, Xd) using
the Bayes theorem
P ( X 1 X 2  X d | Y ) P (Y )
P (Y | X 1 X 2  X n ) 
P( X 1X 2  X d )

– Maximum a-posteriori: Choose Y that maximizes

P(Y | X1, X2, …, Xd)

– Equivalent to choosing value of Y that maximizes

P(X1, X2, …, Xd|Y) P(Y)

• How to estimate P(X1, X2, …, Xd | Y )?

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 Example Data
Given a Test Record:
X  ( Refund  No, Divorced, Income  120K)
c c c
Tid Refund Marital
Status
Taxable
Income Evade • We need to estimate
1 Yes Single 125K No P(Evade = Yes | X) and P(Evade = No | X)
2 No Married 100K No
3 No Single 70K No
4 Yes Married 120K No In the following we will replace
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
Evade = Yes by Yes, and
6 No Married 60K No
7 Yes Divorced 220K No Evade = No by No
8 No Single 85K Yes
9 No Married 75K No
10 No Single 90K Yes
10

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Example Data
Given a Test Record:
X  ( Refund  No, Divorced, Income  120K)
c c c
Tid Refund Marital Taxable
Status Income Evade

1 Yes Single 125K No

2 No Married 100K No
3 No Single 70K No
4 Yes Married 120K No
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
6 No Married 60K No
7 Yes Divorced 220K No
8 No Single 85K Yes
9 No Married 75K No
10 No Single 90K Yes
10

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 Conditional Independence

• X and Y are conditionally independent given Z if

P(X|YZ) = P(X|Z)

• Example: Arm length and reading skills

– Young child has shorter arm length and
limited reading skills, compared to adults
– If age is fixed, no apparent relationship
between arm length and reading skills
– Arm length and reading skills are conditionally
independent given age

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Naïve Bayes Classifier

• Assume independence among attributes Xi when class is

given:
– P(X1, X2, …, Xd |Yj) = P(X1| Yj) P(X2| Yj)… P(Xd| Yj)

– Now we can estimate P(Xi| Yj) for all Xi and Yj

combinations from the training data

– New point is classified to Yj if P(Yj)  P(Xi| Yj) is

maximal.

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 Naïve Bayes on Example Data
Given a Test Record:
X  ( Refund  No, Divorced, Income  120K)
c c c
Tid Refund Marital Taxable
Status Income Evade P(X | Yes) =
1 Yes Single 125K No
P(Refund = No | Yes) x
2 No Married 100K No
3 No Single 70K No
P(Divorced | Yes) x
4 Yes Married 120K No P(Income = 120K | Yes)
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
6 No Married 60K No
7 Yes Divorced 220K No
P(X | No) =
8 No Single 85K Yes P(Refund = No | No) x
9 No Married 75K No
P(Divorced | No) x
10 No Single 90K Yes
10

P(Income = 120K | No)

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Estimate Probabilities from Data

• P(y) = fraction of instances of class y
c c c
Tid Refund Marital Taxable – e.g., P(No) = 7/10,
Status Income Evade P(Yes) = 3/10
1 Yes Single 125K No
2 No Married 100K No • For categorical attributes:
3 No Single 70K No
4 Yes Married 120K No
P(Xi =c| y) = nc/ n
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
– where |Xi =c| is number of
6 No Married 60K No instances having attribute
7 Yes Divorced 220K No value Xi =c and belonging to
8 No Single 85K Yes class y
9 No Married 75K No
– Examples:
10 No Single 90K Yes
P(Status=Married|No) = 4/7
10

P(Refund=Yes|Yes)=0

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 Estimate Probabilities from Data

• For continuous attributes:

– Discretization: Partition the range into bins:
 Replace continuous value with bin value
– Attribute changed from continuous to ordinal

– Probability density estimation:

 Assume attribute follows a normal distribution
 Use data to estimate parameters of distribution
(e.g., mean and standard deviation)
 Once probability distribution is known, use it to
estimate the conditional probability P(Xi|Y)

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Estimate Probabilities from Data

Tid Refund Marital
Status
Taxable
Income Evade
• Normal distribution:
( X i  ij ) 2

1 Yes Single 125K No 1 2 ij2
P( X i | Y j )  e
2 No Married 100K No
2 2
ij
3 No Single 70K No
4 Yes Married 120K No – One for each (Xi,Yi) pair
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
6 No Married 60K No • For (Income, Class=No):
7 Yes Divorced 220K No
– If Class=No
8 No Single 85K Yes
9 No Married 75K No
 sample mean = 110
10 No Single 90K Yes  sample variance = 2975
10

1 
( 120 110 ) 2

P ( Income  120 | No)  e 2 ( 2975 )

 0.0072
2 (54.54)
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 Example of Naïve Bayes Classifier
Given a Test Record:

X  (Refund  No, Divorced, Income  120K)

Naïve Bayes Classifier:

P(Refund = Yes | No) = 3/7

P(Refund = No | No) = 4/7 • P(X | No) = P(Refund=No | No)
P(Refund = Yes | Yes) = 0  P(Divorced | No)
P(Refund = No | Yes) = 1  P(Income=120K | No)
P(Marital Status = Single | No) = 2/7 = 4/7  1/7  0.0072 = 0.0006
P(Marital Status = Divorced | No) = 1/7
P(Marital Status = Married | No) = 4/7
P(Marital Status = Single | Yes) = 2/3 • P(X | Yes) = P(Refund=No | Yes)
P(Marital Status = Divorced | Yes) = 1/3  P(Divorced | Yes)
P(Marital Status = Married | Yes) = 0  P(Income=120K | Yes)
= 1  1/3  1.2  10-9 = 4  10-10
For Taxable Income:
If class = No: sample mean = 110
sample variance = 2975
Since P(X|No)P(No) > P(X|Yes)P(Yes)
If class = Yes: sample mean = 90 Therefore P(No|X) > P(Yes|X)
sample variance = 25
=> Class = No

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Naïve Bayes Classifier can make decisions with partial

information about attributes in the test record
Even in absence of information
about any attributes, we can use P(Yes) = 3/10
Apriori Probabilities of Class P(No) = 7/10
Variable:
Naïve Bayes Classifier: If we only know that marital status is Divorced, then:
P(Yes | Divorced) = 1/3 x 3/10 / P(Divorced)
P(Refund = Yes | No) = 3/7
P(Refund = No | No) = 4/7 P(No | Divorced) = 1/7 x 7/10 / P(Divorced)
P(Refund = Yes | Yes) = 0
P(Refund = No | Yes) = 1 If we also know that Refund = No, then
P(Marital Status = Single | No) = 2/7 P(Yes | Refund = No, Divorced) = 1 x 1/3 x 3/10 /
P(Marital Status = Divorced | No) = 1/7
P(Marital Status = Married | No) = 4/7
P(Divorced, Refund = No)
P(Marital Status = Single | Yes) = 2/3 P(No | Refund = No, Divorced) = 4/7 x 1/7 x 7/10 /
P(Marital Status = Divorced | Yes) = 1/3 P(Divorced, Refund = No)
P(Marital Status = Married | Yes) = 0
If we also know that Taxable Income = 120, then
For Taxable Income: P(Yes | Refund = No, Divorced, Income = 120) =
If class = No: sample mean = 110 1.2 x10-9 x 1 x 1/3 x 3/10 /
sample variance = 2975
P(Divorced, Refund = No, Income = 120 )
If class = Yes: sample mean = 90
sample variance = 25 P(No | Refund = No, Divorced Income = 120) =
0.0072 x 4/7 x 1/7 x 7/10 /
P(Divorced, Refund = No, Income = 120)
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 Issues with Naïve Bayes Classifier
Given a Test Record:
X = (Married)

Naïve Bayes Classifier:

P(Yes) = 3/10
P(Refund = Yes | No) = 3/7
P(Refund = No | No) = 4/7
P(No) = 7/10
P(Refund = Yes | Yes) = 0
P(Refund = No | Yes) = 1
P(Marital Status = Single | No) = 2/7 P(Yes | Married) = 0 x 3/10 / P(Married)
P(Marital Status = Divorced | No) = 1/7
P(Marital Status = Married | No) = 4/7
P(No | Married) = 4/7 x 7/10 / P(Married)
P(Marital Status = Single | Yes) = 2/3
P(Marital Status = Divorced | Yes) = 1/3
P(Marital Status = Married | Yes) = 0

For Taxable Income:

If class = No: sample mean = 110
sample variance = 2975
If class = Yes: sample mean = 90
sample variance = 25

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Issues with Naïve Bayes Classifier

Consider the table with Tid = 7 deleted Naïve Bayes Classifier:
Tid Refund Marital Taxable
Status Income Evade P(Refund = Yes | No) = 2/6
P(Refund = No | No) = 4/6
1 Yes Single 125K No P(Refund = Yes | Yes) = 0
2 No Married 100K No P(Refund = No | Yes) = 1
P(Marital Status = Single | No) = 2/6
3 No Single 70K No P(Marital Status = Divorced | No) = 0
4 Yes Married 120K No P(Marital Status = Married | No) = 4/6
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
P(Marital Status = Single | Yes) = 2/3
P(Marital Status = Divorced | Yes) = 1/3
6 No Married 60K No P(Marital Status = Married | Yes) = 0/3
7 Yes Divorced 220K No For Taxable Income:
If class = No: sample mean = 91
8 No Single 85K Yes
sample variance = 685
9 No Married 75K No If class = No: sample mean = 90
10 No Single 90K Yes sample variance = 25
10

Given X = (Refund = Yes, Divorced, 120K)

Naïve Bayes will not be able to
P(X | No) = 2/6 X 0 X 0.0083 = 0 classify X as Yes or No!
P(X | Yes) = 0 X 1/3 X 1.2 X 10-9 = 0

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 Issues with Naïve Bayes Classifier

• If one of the conditional probabilities is zero, then

the entire expression becomes zero
• Need to use other estimates of conditional probabilities
than simple fractions n: number of training
instances belonging to class y
• Probability estimation:
nc: number of instances with
Xi = c and Y = y
𝑛
original: 𝑃 𝑋 𝑐𝑦 v: total number of attribute
𝑛 values that Xi can take
𝑛 1 p: initial estimate of
Laplace Estimate: 𝑃 𝑋 𝑐𝑦
𝑛 𝑣 (P(Xi = c|y) known apriori
m: hyper-parameter for our
𝑛 𝑚𝑝 confidence in p
m estimate: 𝑃 𝑋 𝑐𝑦
𝑛 𝑚

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Example of Naïve Bayes Classifier

Name Give Birth Can Fly Live in Water Have Legs Class
human yes no no yes mammals
A: attributes
python no no no no non-mammals M: mammals
salmon no no yes no non-mammals
whale yes no yes no mammals N: non-mammals
frog no no sometimes yes non-mammals
komodo no no no yes non-mammals
6 6 2 2
bat yes yes no yes mammals P ( A | M )      0.06
pigeon
cat
no
yes
yes
no
no
no
yes
yes
non-mammals
mammals
7 7 7 7
leopard shark yes no yes no non-mammals 1 10 3 4
turtle no no sometimes yes non-mammals P ( A | N )      0.0042
penguin no no sometimes yes non-mammals 13 13 13 13
porcupine yes no no yes mammals
eel no no yes no non-mammals 7
salamander no no sometimes yes non-mammals P ( A | M ) P ( M )  0.06   0.021
gila monster no no no yes non-mammals 20
platypus no no no yes mammals
13
owl
dolphin
no
yes
yes
no
no
yes
yes
no
non-mammals
mammals
P ( A | N ) P( N )  0.004   0.0027
eagle no yes no yes non-mammals 20

P(A|M)P(M) > P(A|N)P(N)

Give Birth Can Fly Live in Water Have Legs Class
yes no yes no ? => Mammals

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 Naïve Bayes (Summary)

• Robust to isolated noise points

• Handle missing values by ignoring the instance

during probability estimate calculations

• Robust to irrelevant attributes

• Redundant and correlated attributes will violate

class conditional assumption
–Useother techniques such as Bayesian Belief
Networks (BBN)

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Naïve Bayes

• How does Naïve Bayes perform on the following dataset?

Conditional independence of attributes is violated

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 Bayesian Belief Networks

• Provides graphical representation of probabilistic

relationships among a set of random variables
• Consists of:
– A directed acyclic graph (dag) A B
 Node corresponds to a variable
 Arc corresponds to dependence
C
relationship between a pair of variables

– A probability table associating each node to its

immediate parent

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Conditional Independence

D is parent of C
A is child of C
B is descendant of D
D is ancestor of A

• A node in a Bayesian network is conditionally

independent of all of its nondescendants, if its
parents are known
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 Conditional Independence

• Naïve Bayes assumption:

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Probability Tables

• If X does not have any parents, table contains

prior probability P(X)

• If X has only one parent (Y), table contains

conditional probability P(X|Y)

• If X has multiple parents (Y1, Y2,…, Yk), table

contains conditional probability P(X|Y1, Y2,…, Yk)

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 Example of Bayesian Belief Network

Exercise=Yes 0.7 Diet=Healthy 0.25

Exercise=No 0.3 Diet=Unhealthy 0.75

Exercise Diet

D=Healthy D=Healthy D=Unhealthy D=Unhealthy

Heart E=Yes E=No E=Yes E=No
Disease HD=Yes 0.25 0.45 0.55 0.75
HD=No 0.75 0.55 0.45 0.25

Blood
Chest Pain
Pressure

HD=Yes HD=No HD=Yes HD=No

CP=Yes 0.8 0.01 BP=High 0.85 0.2
CP=No 0.2 0.99 BP=Low 0.15 0.8

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Example of Inferencing using BBN

• Given: X = (E=No, D=Yes, CP=Yes, BP=High)

– Compute P(HD|E,D,CP,BP)?
• P(HD=Yes| E=No,D=Yes) = 0.55
P(CP=Yes| HD=Yes) = 0.8
P(BP=High| HD=Yes) = 0.85
– P(HD=Yes|E=No,D=Yes,CP=Yes,BP=High)
 0.55  0.8  0.85 = 0.374
Classify X
• P(HD=No| E=No,D=Yes) = 0.45 as Yes
P(CP=Yes| HD=No) = 0.01
P(BP=High| HD=No) = 0.2
– P(HD=No|E=No,D=Yes,CP=Yes,BP=High)
 0.45  0.01  0.2 = 0.0009

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