H51R-1337: Flood Risk Assessment, Social Vulnerability,
and Potential Mitigation Actions in Southern California
Nikolay Grisel Todorov (todorov@chapman.edu), Shahryar Fazli, Rejoice Thomas, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA, 92866 Background GBS Inventory Risk Assessment Hazus is a regional multi-hazard loss estimation model developed by the The GBS spatially is based on the 2020 TIGER U.S. Census Blocks (CBs), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Chapman University is which are topologically connected polygons with large water bodies such as located in Orange, CA which is part of the 46th U.S. Congressional region. The lakes and rivers removed. Dasymetric spatial data represent the underlying geographical size of the 46th U.S. Congressional region in California is built-up man-made environment data distributions more accurately. Here, approximately 56 square miles and contains 4,441 CBs. The region contains we developed dasymetric built-up man-made environment CBs using the over 200 thousand households and has a total population of 722,102 people. 2019 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) coverage. We removed There are an estimated 147,097 buildings in the region with a total building LULCs for Barren, Forest, Shrubland, Herbaceous, Planted, Wetlands, and replacement value (excluding contents) of $96.789 billion. Approximately Water coverages from the dasymetric CBs. Consequently, dasymetric CB 84.01% of the buildings (and 48.8% of the building value) are residential, polygons are not topologically connected as shown below. 32.3% of the building value is commercial, 10.9% commercial, and 8% education, religion, government, and agricultural. Debris generation risk estimation from a 500-year riverine event yields For essential facilities, there are 17 hospitals in Finishes (ex: drywall, insulation) 67,491, Structures (ex: wood, brick) 5,731, the region with a total bed capacity of 2,973 and Foundations (ex: concrete slab, concrete block, rebar) 6,905 for a total beds. There are 280 schools, 31 fire stations, of 80,127 tons. This is 3206 truckloads (@25 tons/truck) to remove the 10 police stations, and 4 EOCs. debris generated by the flood. The Hazus flood riverine study region was analyzed with a return period of The same hazard would generate 500-year flood hazard level 1 depth grid using USGS 1-arc second DEM. 155,808 Displaced People, of which 12,740 People Needing Short Term Methodology Shelter. General Building Stock (GBS) inventory is spatially intersected with the hazard Riverine Flood Hazard plume. Depth Damage Functions (DDFs) provide the damage percentage at each depth; when multiplied by the cost, yields the loss. Four of the RES1 DDFs used in the study are shown (below). Single Family Residential (RES1) Building Depth Damage Functions 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20 Flood hazard is defined by a relationship between the depth of flooding and
10 the annual chance of inundation to that depth. In this study, we use the 0 extreme 500-year return period, which is synonymous to a 0.2% annual Hazus estimates that about 9,987 buildings will be at least moderately ft04m ft03m ft02m ft01m ft00 ft01 ft02 ft03 ft04 ft05 ft06 ft07 ft08
129 RES1 USACE - IWR one story, no basement, Structure
ft09 ft10 ft11 ft12 ft13 ft14 ft15
107 RES1 FIA two floors, no basement, Structure, A-Zone
ft16 ft17 ft18 ft19 ft20 ft21 ft22 ft23
probability of exceedance. damaged. This is over 59% of the total number of buildings in the scenario. 109 RES1 FIA three or more floors, no basement, Structure, A-Zone 111 RES1 FIA split level, no basement, Structure, A-Zone There are an estimated 450 buildings that will be completely destroyed. Of Within the FEMA, the Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration (FIMA), Depth, duration, and water velocity in the floodplain are the primary factors $172 million in Wastewater Facilities, there would be 29.5% damaged or formerly known as the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA), is responsible contributing to flood losses. Hazus Flood Model estimates flood losses from $51 million in Wastewater Facility losses. for administering the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FIA created the depth of flooding, assumes max duration, and does not estimate losses riverine flooding DDFs. The original damage functions, developed in 1970 and due to high-velocity flash floods. Using the flood frequency convention, The Building $1.879 billion, Content $3.102 billion, and Inventory $358 1973, are called “theoretical base tables”. Some information used to develop flood hazard is defined by a relation between the depth of flooding and the million losses add up Capital Stock losses to $5.339 billion, a Building loss the initial functions came from post-flood surveys conducted by the USACE. annual chance of inundation greater than that depth. The relation is called a ratio of 3.5%. When adding the Relocation, Capital-Related, Wage, and With time, a wealth of damage and loss data was collected as part of the flood depth-frequency curve. Rental Income losses, the total Economic Loss for Buildings is $12.031 insurance claims process. Losses included structure and contents losses and billion for the 46th U.S. Congressional region risk assessment simulated were determined relative to actual cash value (depreciated replacement cost). To compute the synthetic stream network, we used 1” DEM with a drainage with a 500-year riverine flood hazard. A majority of claims were for residential structures. A statistical credibility area of 10 sq mi. Santa Ana River from Prado Dam to the Pacific Ocean is analysis combined the “theoretical base tables” and the insurance claims. correctly identified by this coarse DEM, 1” ~ cos(lat)*30 m pixel resolution. When a sufficient number of claims existed to provide statistical confidence, Hydrologically, the main-stem reaches have known discharges at all 8 Acknowledgement the damage relationships were based exclusively on the claims data. When return periods, while more minor reaches used the specific hydrological The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the US claims data were insufficient, the claims data and base tables were combined region’s regression equations. Hydraulics are calculated using Manning’s Department of Education award number P116Z220190, “Earth Systems using a weighting process. equation, using the prevalent n for the reach taken from the NLCD buffered Science and Data Solutions Lab (EssDs): Applying Data Science ¼ mi around the reach centerline. Techniques to Achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals”.
