Hexp C13
Hexp C13
Hexp C13
高能實驗物理
GH107
Error estimation (I)
2024/5/24
1
課程進度
週別 內 容 日期 參 考 資 料
1 Introduction: Size, energy, cross section 2月23日
2 History of High-Energy Experiments 3月1日
3 Accelerator and Collisions 3月8日 Class at NKNU
4 Particle Detector I 3月15日
5 Particle Detector II 3月29日
6 Particle Detector III 4月1日(一)下午
︵ 7 Particle Detector IV 4月12日 Class at NKNU
下 8 Front End Electronics 4月19日
學
9 Trigger & Data acquisition system 4月22日(一)下午
期
︶ 10 Data Analysis I: Calibration & Data Reduction 5月6日(一)下午
11 Data Analysis II: Monte-Carlo Simulation 5月10日
12 Data Analysis III: ROOT Analysis 5月20日(一)下午
13 Data Analysis IV: Error estimation (I) 5月24日
14 Data Analysis V: Error estimation (II) 5月31日 Class at NKNU
15 Oral Presentation 6月7日 ONLINE
16 Oral Presentation 6月13日
2
INTRODUCTION
3
Making the connection
Reality
A unique happening:
Reconstructed eg. Run 23458, event 1345
Events which contains a Z → μ+μ- decay
Analysis : We “confront theory with experiment” by comparing
the measured quantity (observable) with the prediction.
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Statistics: Probability Distribution
13
14
15
Measurements Compared to Standard Model
https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/CombinedSummaryPlots/SM/index.html#ATLAS_b_SMSummary_FiducialXsect
16
Problems to deal with
--- Things to Learn
• How to assign the errors of data points?
– How to identify a signal? How to determine its
significance?
– How to determine the parameters and associated
errors of the theoretical modeling?
– How to reject a theory?
– How to make a claim of discovery?
17
Why estimate errors?
• We are concerned not only with the answer
but also with its accuracy.
• For example, speed of light 2.998x108 m/sec
– (2.990.15) x108:
– (3.090.01) x108:
– (3.092) x108:
Q1: which measurement has the best accuracy?
Q2: which measurement is not consistent with the standard value of speed of light?
18
Source of Errors
• Random (Statistic) error: the inability of any
measuring device to give infinitely accurate
answers.
• Systematic error: uncertainty.
19
Statistic Errors
20
Statistic Errors
21
Statistic Errors
22
Systematic Errors
https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/sinciatw/detail.action?docID=1315866
23
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
24
Probability Density Functions (PDF)
Probabilistic treatment of possible outcomes
25
PDF vs. Distributions
pdf = histogram with
infinite data sample,
zero bin width,
normalized to unit area.
26
Probability Distribution
27
Expectation values
Consider continuous r.v. x with pdf f (x). r.v. = random variable
Variance:
Notation:
Standard deviation:
s ~ width of pdf, same units as x.
28
Expectation Value:
E [k ] = kP(k , p) = 0 + p = p
k =0,1
Variation:
V [k ] = (k − E[k ])
k =0,1
2
P( k , p ) = (0 − p ) 2 (1 − p ) +(1 − p ) 2 p = p(1 − p ) 29
30
31
Error estimation in each single bin of the counting experiments. 32
33
Probability distribution of measured/constructed physics quantities. 34
35
36
37
38
Some distributions
Distribution/pdf Example use in HEP
Binomial Branching ratio
Multinomial Histogram with fixed N
Poisson Number of events found
Uniform Monte Carlo method
Exponential Decay time
Gaussian Measurement error
Chi-square Goodness-of-fit
Cauchy Mass of resonance
Landau Ionization energy loss
G. Cowan 39
40
41
Error propagation − special cases
42
Error propagation − special cases (2)
Consider with
43
44
PARAMETER DETERMINATION
45
Parameter estimation
The parameters of a pdf are constants that characterize
its shape, e.g.
a pdf example
large biased
variance
Parameter:
We find:
50
51
The likelihood function
Suppose the outcome of an experiment is: x1, ..., xn, which
is modeled as a sample from a joint pdf with parameter(s) q :
Now evaluate this with the data sample obtained and regard it as
a function of the parameter(s). This is the likelihood function:
(xi constant)
First term is ln Lmax, second term is zero, for third term use
information inequality (assume equality):
i.e.,
ML example with
exponential:
Not quite parabolic ln L
since finite sample size
(n = 50).
An estimator example
66
References
• Foundation of Statistics - 1/3:
https://indico.cern.ch/event/817550/
• Foundation of Statistics - 2/3:
https://indico.cern.ch/event/817553/
• Foundation of Statistics - 3/3:
https://indico.cern.ch/event/817623/
67