9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

[a] Analysis of Bias and Variance for Each Classifier

To analyze the bias and variance of each classifier, we'll consider their training and test accuracies as
indicators of their performance on seen and unseen data, respectively. Bias refers to the error
introduced by approximating a real-world problem (which may be complex) by a simplified model.
Variance refers to the error introduced by sensitivity to small fluctuations in the training set.

1. Logistic Regression
Training Accuracy: Moderate
Test Accuracy: Moderate

Interpretation:
Bias: Moderate
Variance: Low

Explanation:
Moderate Training Accuracy: Indicates that the model does not fit the training data perfectly.
This suggests that the model may not be capturing all the complexities of the underlying data
patterns.
Moderate Test Accuracy: The test accuracy is similar to the training accuracy, implying that the
model generalizes reasonably well to new data.
Bias Impact: Logistic regression is a linear model, which means it assumes a linear relationship
between the features and the outcome. If the true relationship is more complex (non-linear),
the model will not capture all the nuances, leading to high bias (underfitting).
Variance Impact: Since the training and test accuracies are similar, the model is not overly
sensitive to the training data. This suggests low variance, meaning the model's performance
doesn't fluctuate significantly with different training sets.

Impact on Generalization:
The model's moderate bias limits its ability to capture complex patterns, potentially reducing
its predictive performance on unseen data. However, the low variance ensures consistent
performance across different datasets.

2. Decision Tree (Depth = 10)

Training Accuracy: High
Test Accuracy: Low

Interpretation:
https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 1/7
9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

Bias: Low
Variance: High

Explanation:
High Training Accuracy: The decision tree fits the training data very well, possibly capturing
even minor fluctuations (noise) in the data.
Low Test Accuracy: The significant drop in accuracy on the test data indicates that the model
doesn't generalize well to unseen data.
Bias Impact: The model's ability to fit the training data closely suggests low bias. It is flexible
enough to model complex relationships in the data.
Variance Impact: The large discrepancy between training and test accuracy indicates high
variance (overfitting). The model is too sensitive to the training data and captures noise as if it
were a true signal.

Impact on Generalization:
The high variance negatively impacts the model's ability to generalize. While it performs
exceptionally on training data, it fails to predict accurately on new, unseen data due to
overfitting.

3. Naive Bayes
Training Accuracy: Moderate
Test Accuracy: Moderate

Interpretation:
Bias: High
Variance: Low

Explanation:
Moderate Training Accuracy: Indicates that the model doesn't fit the training data perfectly,
likely due to its simplifying assumptions.
Moderate Test Accuracy: Similar performance on test data suggests consistent generalization.
Bias Impact: Naive Bayes assumes feature independence, which is rarely true in real-world
data. This strong assumption leads to high bias, as the model cannot capture interactions
between features.
Variance Impact: The model's performance doesn't fluctuate much between training and test
sets, indicating low variance.

Impact on Generalization:
High bias limits the model's capacity to learn complex patterns, but low variance ensures stable
performance. The model may underfit but provides consistent predictions on new data.

https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 2/7
9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

4. K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) with k =1

Training Accuracy: Very High
Test Accuracy: Low

Interpretation:
Bias: Low
Variance: High

Explanation:
Very High Training Accuracy: With k = 1, the model predicts the training data perfectly
because each point is its own nearest neighbor.
Low Test Accuracy: The model performs poorly on test data due to its sensitivity to the specific
instances in the training set.
Bias Impact: The model is highly flexible and makes no assumptions about the data
distribution, leading to low bias.
Variance Impact: The extreme sensitivity to training data (since each prediction is based solely
on the nearest neighbor) results in high variance. The model captures noise and may not
reflect the true underlying patterns.

Impact on Generalization:
The high variance leads to poor generalization. The model overfits the training data and cannot
make accurate predictions on new, unseen data.

Summary Table:

Algorithm Bias Variance Generalization Impact

Logistic Regression Moderate Low Reasonable generalization with potential underfitting

Decision Tree (Depth = 10) Low High Poor generalization due to overfitting

Naive Bayes High Low Consistent but potentially underfits

KNN (k = 1) Low High Poor generalization due to overfitting

[b] Strategies to Reduce High Variance and High Bias

https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 3/7
9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

To improve the models, we need to address the high variance in the Decision Tree and KNN, and
the high bias in Logistic Regression and Naive Bayes.

Reducing High Variance in Decision Tree

1. Pruning the Tree:

Method: Remove branches that have little power in predicting the target variable to simplify
the model.
Technique:
Pre-Pruning (Early Stopping): Stop the tree from growing once it reaches a certain depth
or when further splits do not significantly improve the model.
Post-Pruning (Reduced Error Pruning): Grow the full tree and then remove branches that
do not contribute to predictive accuracy on a validation set.
Impact: Reduces overfitting by simplifying the model, thus decreasing variance and improving
generalization.

2. Limiting Tree Depth:

Method: Restrict the maximum depth of the tree to prevent it from becoming too complex.
Technique:
Set the max_depth parameter to a lower value (e.g., from 10 to 5).
Monitor validation accuracy to find the optimal depth.
Impact: Prevents the tree from capturing noise in the training data, reducing variance.

3. Using Ensemble Methods:

Random Forests:
Method: Build multiple decision trees on random subsets of the data and features, and
aggregate their predictions.
Impact: Reduces variance by averaging out the errors from individual trees.
Gradient Boosted Trees:
Method: Build trees sequentially, where each tree tries to correct the errors of the previous
one.
Impact: Improves model performance by reducing both bias and variance through
iterative refinement.

4. Cross-Validation:
Method: Use techniques like k-fold cross-validation to assess model performance on different
subsets of the data.
Impact: Helps in tuning hyperparameters (like max_depth , min_samples_split ) to find the
model that generalizes best.

https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 4/7
9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

5. Feature Selection and Engineering:

Method: Reduce the number of features or combine features to simplify the model.
Impact: Less complex models are less likely to overfit, reducing variance.

Reducing High Variance in KNN (k = 1)

1. Increase the Value of k :

Method: Choose a higher value of k to consider more neighbors when making predictions.
Technique:
Test various values of k (e.g., k = 5, k = 10) and select the one that provides the best
validation accuracy.
Impact: A larger k smooths out the decision boundary, reducing variance and preventing the
model from being too sensitive to individual data points.

2. Feature Scaling:
Method: Standardize or normalize features to ensure that all features contribute equally to the
distance calculations.
Impact: Prevents features with larger scales from dominating the distance metric, which can
reduce variance.

3. Dimensionality Reduction:
Method: Use techniques like Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the number of
features.
Impact: Simplifies the model and reduces noise, which can decrease variance.

Reducing High Bias in Logistic Regression

1. Add Polynomial Features:

Method: Introduce polynomial and interaction terms to allow the model to capture non-linear
relationships.
Technique:
Generate higher-order features (e.g., x21 , x1 x2 ). ​ ​ ​

Use these features in the logistic regression model.

Impact: Increases the flexibility of the model, reducing bias by allowing it to fit more complex
patterns.

https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 5/7
9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

2. Use a Different Model:

Method: Switch to a more flexible algorithm that can capture non-linear relationships.
Options:
Kernelized Methods: Use kernel logistic regression or Support Vector Machines (SVM)
with a non-linear kernel (e.g., radial basis function).
Decision Trees or Ensemble Methods: Utilize models that inherently capture non-linear
patterns.
Impact: Reduces bias by employing models better suited to the data's complexity.

3. Feature Engineering:
Method: Transform existing features or create new ones based on domain knowledge.
Impact: Helps the model capture underlying patterns, reducing bias.

Reducing High Bias in Naive Bayes

1. Relax Independence Assumptions:

Method: Use models that consider feature dependencies.
Options:
Tree-Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN): Allows for limited dependence between features.
Hidden Markov Models (HMM): Useful when features are sequentially dependent.
Impact: Reduces bias by accounting for feature interactions.

2. Incorporate More Informative Features:

Method: Add new features that may capture aspects of the data not represented by current
features.
Impact: Provides the model with more information, potentially reducing bias.

3. Use a Different Algorithm:

Method: Switch to a model that doesn't rely on strong independence assumptions.
Options:
Logistic Regression with Interaction Terms
Decision Trees
Ensemble Methods
Impact: Employs a more flexible model that can capture complex relationships, reducing bias.

https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 6/7
9/30/24, 5:49 AM ChatGPT

Final Recommendations:
Decision Tree:
Reduce Variance: Prune the tree, limit its depth, or use ensemble methods like Random
Forests.
KNN:
Reduce Variance: Increase k , perform feature scaling, and consider dimensionality
reduction.
Logistic Regression and Naive Bayes:
Reduce Bias: Add polynomial features, switch to more flexible models, or enhance feature
engineering.

Conclusion:

Understanding the balance between bias and variance is crucial for building models that generalize
well to new data. By applying the appropriate strategies to reduce high variance or high bias, the
healthcare company can improve the predictive performance of their models on unseen patient
data, leading to better outcomes in diabetes prediction

https://chatgpt.com/c/66f9eccd-6fe8-800e-95ae-f1014c8f2289 7/7