GAMBELLA UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION ENGINEERING

MODULE OF ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY (WRIE-3095)

Prepared by: Nigatu Chernet (MSc)

April 2024

Gambella, Ethiopia
Course objectives
The course is designed to acquaint students with developing hydrographs, frequency analysis of rainfall
and stream flow data, determine design discharge for water related structures, flood routing, reservoir
capacity and sediment determination and determine drainage design discharge for urban areas.

Learning outcomes
At the end of this course, students will be able to;

•Determine design discharge using unit hydrograph and separate base flow from effective runoff.

•Determine design flood using different methods and identify best fitting methods.

•Know reservoir capacity determination and sediment load prediction in the reservoir.

•Gain concept of design discharge for urban drainage design using the concept of hydrology
Table of Contents
Course objectives .................................................................................................................................. ii
Learning outcomes ............................................................................................................................... ii
1. Meteorological and Hydrological Data Analysis for The Purpose of Hydrological Studies ..... 1
1.1. General ................................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Meteorological data .............................................................................................................. 1
1.2.1 Principles of Data Analysis ................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Areal Estimation ................................................................................................................... 6
1.3 Hydrological Data ................................................................................................................. 8
1.3.1 Missing Data and Comparison with the Precipitation Records ......................................... 8
Chapter Two: Rainfall-Runoff Relationships ................................................................................... 11
2.1 Hydrological Models .......................................................................................................... 11
2.2Deterministic Hydrological Models .................................................................................... 11
2.2.1Empirical (Black Box) Models ......................................................................................... 11
2.2.2 Lumped Conceptual Models ............................................................................................ 14
2.2.3 Distributed Process Description Based Models ............................................................. 14
2.3Stochastic Time Series Models ........................................................................................... 16
2.4Rational Method .................................................................................................................. 17
2.4.1Runoff Coefficient ............................................................................................................. 17
2.4.2 Rainfall intensity .............................................................................................................. 19
2.4.3Time of Concentration ...................................................................................................... 20
2.1 SCS Curve Number Method ......................................................................................... 28
2.6Time-Area Method .............................................................................................................. 33
2.7STREAM FLOW HYDROGRAPH .................................................................................... 35
2.7.1 Hydrograph Analysis ....................................................................................................... 36
2.7.2 Factors affecting flood hydrograph ................................................................................. 39
2.7.3 Effective Rainfall.............................................................................................................. 39
2.7.4 Separation of Base Flow and Runoff ............................................................................... 40
2.8The Unit Hydrograph (UH) ................................................................................................. 43
2.8.1Derivation of the Unit Hydrograph from single storms .................................................. 45
2.8.2 Changing of the Duration of the UH............................................................................... 46
2.9 Applications of Unit Hydrograph ....................................................................................... 52
2.10 Synthetic Unit Hydrographs ............................................................................................. 52
 2.10.1 Snyder’s method............................................................................................................. 53
2.11 UH from a complex storm ................................................................................................ 58
2.11 Instantaneous unit Hydrograph (IUH) .......................................................................... 60
2.13Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph ....................................................................................... 62
2.14 Hydrology of Ungauged Catchments ............................................................................... 63
CHAPTER THREE: FLOOD ROUTING....................................................................................... 83
3.1 General ................................................................................................................................ 83
3.2 Simple Non-storage Routing .............................................................................................. 85
3.3 Storage Routing .................................................................................................................. 86
3.4 Reservoir or level pool routing ........................................................................................... 88
3.5 Channel routing ................................................................................................................... 92
3.5.1 Muskingum Method of Routing ...................................................................................... 93
3.5.2Application of the Muskingum Method: .......................................................................... 94
2.12 Hydraulic Routing ......................................................................................................... 95
CHAPTER FOUR: FREQUENCY ANALYSIS (PROBABILITY IN HYDROLOGY)............ 99
4.1General ................................................................................................................................. 99
4.2Flow Frequency ................................................................................................................... 99
4.3 Flood Probability .............................................................................................................. 103
4.3.1Selection of Data............................................................................................................. 103
4.3.2 Plotting Positions ........................................................................................................... 104
4.3.3 Theoretical Distributions of Floods .............................................................................. 106
4.3.4 Extreme-Value Type I Distribution (Gumbel’s Method) .............................................. 106
4.3.5 Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use ........................................................................... 107
4.3.6 Confidence Limits for the fitted data ............................................................................ 111
4.3.7 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution ................................................................................ 113
4.4 Regional Frequency Analysis ........................................................................................... 122
4.5 Low Flow Analysis ........................................................................................................... 122
4.5.1 Definitions and Basic Concepts..................................................................................... 122
Low Stream flows ................................................................................................................... 122
4.5.2 Low flow frequency analysis ......................................................................................... 124
4.5.3 Drought analysis ............................................................................................................ 127
4.6 Risk, Reliability and Safety factor .................................................................................... 128
CHAPTER FIVE: Reservoir Capacity Determination ................................................................ 130
 5.1 Mass curve (ripple's) method:........................................................................................... 130

5.2 Reservoirs and sediments .................................................................................................. 136

5.3 Sediment Load Prediction ................................................................................................. 138

CHAPTER SIX: URBAN HYDROLOGY .................................................................................... 140

6.1 Catchment Response Modifications ................................................................................. 140

6.2Urban development planning ............................................................................................. 142

6.3 Drainage design ................................................................................................................ 142

6.3.1Impervious areas ............................................................................................................. 143

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................. 147

1. Meteorological and Hydrological Data Analysis for The Purpose of Hydrological Studies

1.1. General
Hydrological studies require extensive analysis of meteorological, hydrological and spatial
data to represent the actual processes taking place on the environment and better estimation
of quantities out of it. Precipitation is the source of all waters which enters the land.
Hydrologists need to understand how the amount, rate, duration, and quality of
precipitation are distributed in space and time in order to assess, predict, and forecast
hydrologic responses of a catchment.

Estimates of regional precipitation are critical inputs to water-balance and other types of
models used in water-resource management. Sound interpretation of the prediction of
such models requires an assessment of the uncertainty associated with their output, which
in turn depends in large measure on the uncertainty of the input values.

The uncertainties associated with a value of regional precipitation consist of:

1.Errors due to point measurement
2.Errors due to uncertainty in converting point measurement data into estimates
of regional precipitation

It is therefore, necessary to first check the data for its quality, continuity and consistency
before it is considered as input. The continuity of a record may be broken with missing data
due to many reasons such as damage or fault in recording gauges during a period. The
missing data can be estimated by using the data of the neighboring stations correlating the
physical, meteorological and hydrological parameters of the catchment and gauging
stations. To estimate and correlate a data for a station demands a long time series record of
the neighboring stations with reliable quality, continuity and consistency.

1.2 Meteorological data

1.2.1 Principles of Data Analysis

a) Corrections to Point Measurements

Because precipitation is the input to the land phase of the hydrologic cycle, its accurate

1
measurement is the essential foundation for quantitative hydrologic analysis. There are
many reasons for concern about the accuracy of precipitation data, and these reasons
must be understood and accounted for in both scientific and applied hydrological analyses.

Rain gages that project above the ground surface causes wind eddies affecting the catch of
the smaller raindrops and snowflakes. These effects are the most common causes of point
precipitation-measurement. Studies from World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
indicate that deficiencies of 10% for rain and well over 50% for snow are common in
unshielded gages. The daily measured values need to be updated by applying a
correction factor K after

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Corrections for evaporation, wetting losses, and other factors have been applied. The
following equations are recommended for U.S. standard 8-Inch gauges with and without
Alter wind shields.

Correction factor for unshielded rain gauges:

Kru = 100 exp (-4.605 + 0.062 Va0.58) (1.1)

Correction factor for Alter wind shielded rain gauges:
Kru = 100 exp (-4.605 + 0.041 Va0.69) (1.2)
Where:
Va = Wind speed at the gage orifice in m/s (Yang et al. 1998)

Errors due to splashing and evaporation usually are small and can be neglected.
However, evaporation losses can be significant in low-intensity precipitations where a
considerable amount could be lost. Correction for wetting losses can be made by adding
a certain amount (in the order of 0.03 – 0.10 mm) depending on the type precipitation.

Systematic errors often associated with recording type rain gauges due to the mechanics of
operation of the instrument can be minimized by installing a non recording type gauge
adjacent to each recording gauge to assure that at least the total precipitation is
measured. Instrument errors are typically estimated as 1 – 5% of the total catch (Winter
(1981)).

Although difficult to quantify and often undetected, errors in measurement and in the
recording and publishing (personal errors) of precipitation observations are common. To
correct the error some subjectivity is involved by comparing the record with stream flow
records of the region.

a)Estimation of Missing Data

When undertaking an analysis of precipitation data from gauges where daily observations
are made, it is often to find days when no observations are recorded at one or more
gauges. These missing days may be isolated occurrences or extended over long periods. In
order to compute precipitation totals and averages, one must estimate the missing values.
Several approaches are used to estimate the missing values. Station Average, Normal Ratio,
Inverse Distance Weighting, and Regression methods are commonly used to fill the missing
records. In Station Average Method, the missing record is computed as the simple average
of the values at the nearby gauges. Mc Cuen (1998) recommends using this method only
when the annual precipitation value at each of the neighboring gauges differs by less than
10% from that for the gauge with missing data.

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 1.3

Where:
Px = The missing precipitation record
P1, P2 , …, Pm = Precipitation records at the neighboring stations M =
Number of neighboring stations
If the annual precipitations vary considerably by more than 10 %, the missing record is
estimated by the Normal Ratio Method, by weighing the precipitation at the neighboring
stations by the ratios of normal annual precipitations.

1.4

Where:
Nx = Annual-average precipitation at the gage with missing values
N1 , N2 , …, Nm = Annual average precipitation at neighboring gauges
The Inverse Distance Method weights the annual average values only by their distances,
dm, from the gauge with the missing data and so does not require information about average
annual precipitation at the gauges.

1.5

m
The missing value is estimated as:

1.6

The value of b can be 1 if the weights are inversely proportional to distance or 2, if the
weights are proportional to distance squared.

If relatively few values are missing at the gauge of interest, it is possible to estimate the
missing value by regression method.

a)Checking the Consistency of Point Measurements

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If the conditions relevant to the recording of rain gauge station have undergone a
significant change during the period of record, inconsistency would arise in the rainfall data
of that station. This inconsistency would be felt from the time the significant change took
place. Some of the common causes for inconsistency of record are:
1.Shifting of a rain gauge station to a new location
2.The neighbor hood of the station may have undergoing a marked change
3.Change in the immediate environment due to damages due to deforestation, obstruction,
etc.
4.Occurrence of observational error from a certain date both personal and instrumental

The most common method of checking for inconsistency of a record is the Double-Mass
Curve analysis (DMC). The curve is a plot on arithmetic graph paper, of cumulative
precipitation collected at a gauge where measurement conditions may have changed
significantly against the average of the cumulative precipitation for the same period of
record collected at several gauges in the same region. The data is arranged in the reverse
order, i.e., the latest record as the first entry and the oldest record as the last entry in the list.
A change in proportionality between the measurements at the suspect station and those in
the region is reflected in a change in the slope of the trend of the plotted points.
If a Double Mass Curve reveals a change in slope that is significant and is due to
changed measurement conditions at a particular station, the values of the earlier period of
the record should be adjusted to be consistent with latter period records before computation
of areal averages. The adjustment is done by applying a correction factor K, on the records
before the slope change given by the following relationship.

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 Slope for period AFTER slopechange Slope
K=
for period Before slope change
(1.7)

1.2 Areal Estimation

Rain gauges represent only point measurements. in practice however, hydrological analysis
requires knowledge of the precipitation over an area. Several approaches have been
devised for estimating areal precipitation from point measurements. The Arithmetic mean,
the Thiessen polygon and the Isohyetal method are some the approaches.
The arithmetic mean method uses the mean of precipitation record from all gauges in a
catchment. The method is simple and give good results if the precipitation measured at the
various stations in a catchment show little variation.
In the Thiessen polygon method, the rainfall recorded at each station is given a weightage
on the basis of an area closest to the station. The average rainfall over the catchment
is computed by considering the precipitation from each gauge multiplied by the
percentage of enclosed area by the Thiessen polygon. The total average areal rainfall is the
summation averages from all the stations. The Thiessen polygon method gives more
accurate estimation than the simple arithmetic mean estimation as the method introduces a
weighting factor on rational basis. Furthermore, rain gauge stations outside the catchment
area can be considered effectively by this method.

The Isohyetal method is the most accurate method of estimating areal rainfall. The method
requires the preparation of the isohyetal map of the catchment from a network of gauging
stations. Areas between the isohyets and the catchment boundary are measured. The areal
rainfall is calculated from the product of the inter-isohyetal areas and the corresponding
mean rainfall between the isohyets divided by the total catchment area.
a) Double Mass Curves for Bahir

6
b) Double Mass Curves for Adet

c) Double Mass Curves for Dangila

Figure 1.1: Double Mass Analysis

The updated records are computed using equation as given below:

Pcx = PxK (1.8)

Where the factor K is computed by equation (g)

Table 1: Slopes of the DMC and correction factor K
Average slopes
Stations Slope for period after slope Slope for period K
change before slope change
Bahir Dar 1.114 0.892 1.249
Adet 0.752 1.008 0.746
Dangila 1.1986 1.1986 1.000
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Precipitation records at Bahir Dar and Adet meteorological station beyond November 1998
should be updated by applying the correction factors 1.25 and
0.75 respectively.

1.3 Hydrological Data

The availability of stream flow data is important for the model calibration process in
catchment modelling. Measured hydrograph reflects all the complexity of flow processes
occurring in the catchment. It is usually difficult to infer the nature of those processes
directly from the measured hydrograph, with the exception of some general characteristics
such as mean times of response in particular events. Moreover, discharge data are
generally available at only a small number of sites in any region where different
characteristics of the catchment are lumped together.

1.3.1 Missing Data and Comparison with the Precipitation Records

The data so far collected do not indicate any missing data. The potential errors in the
discharge records would affect the ability of the model to represent the actual condition of
the catchment and calibrating the model parameters. If a model is calibrated using data
that are in error, then the model parameter values will be affected and the prediction for
other periods, which depend on the calibrated parameter values, will be affected.

Prior to using any data to a model it should be checked for consistency. In data where there
is no information about missing values check for any signs that infilling of missing data
has taken place is important. A common indication of such obvious signs is apparently
constant value for several periods suggesting the data has been filled. Hydrographs with
long flat tops also often as sign of that there has been a problem with the measurement.
Outlier data could also indicate the problem.

Even though there is a danger of rejecting periods of data on the basis on these simple
checks, at least some periods of data with apparently unusual behavior need to be carefully
checked or eliminated from the analysis.

The available stream flow data for this analysis generally has corresponding match with
the precipitation records in the area. The high flows correspond to the rainy seasons. In
some of the years there are remarkably high flow records, for instance in the month of

8
august 2000 and 2001 the flow records are as high as 100 and 89 m3/s compared to
normal rainy season records which is between 30 and 65 m3/s. These data might be real or
erroneous. On the other hand the values match to the days of the peak rainfall records
in the area in both the cases.

9
 Figure 1.2: Koga stream flow record compared with the precipitation record.

However, the stream flow records of 1995 are exceptionally higher and different from flow
magnitudes that had been records for long period of time at Koga River. It is not only
the magnitude which is different from the normal flow record, but also it contradicts with
the magnitude of the precipitation recorded during the year. These records might be
modeled or transferred flows. Hence, the flow records of this year are excluded from being
the part of the analysis.

10
 Chapter Two: Rainfall-Runoff Relationships

2.1 Hydrological Models

The two classical types of hydrological models are the deterministic and the
stochastic types.

Figure 2.1: Classification of hydrological models according to process description

2.2Deterministic Hydrological Models

Deterministic models permit only one outcome from a simulation with one set
of inputs and parameter values. Deterministic models can be classified to
whether the model gives a lumped or distributed description of the considered
area, and whether the description of the hydrological processes is empirical,
conceptual, or more physically-based. As most conceptual models are also
lumped and as most physically based models are also distributed. The three
main groups of deterministic models:

• Empirical Models (black box)

• Lumped Conceptual Models (grey box)

• Distributed Process (Physically) Description Based Models (white box)

2.2.1Empirical (Black Box) Models

Black box models are empirical, involving mathematical equations that have
been assessed, not from the physical processes in the catchment, but from
analysis of concurrent input and output time series.

11
The first of this kind of model was the Rational Method published by the Irish
engineer Thomas James Mulvaney (1822-1892) in 1851. The model was a
single simple equation often used for drainage design for small suburban and
urban watersheds. The equation assumes the proportionality between peak
discharge, qpk, and the maximum average rainfall intensity, ieff:

qpk = CR* ieff*AD

Where AD is drainage area and CR is the runoff coefficient, which depends on

watershed land use.

12
The equation was derived from a simplified conceptual model of travel times
on basins with negligible surface storage. The duration of the rainfall to be used
in the equation is the mean intensity of precipitation for duration equal to the
time of concentration and an exceedence probability of P.

The model reflects the way in which discharges are expected to increase with
area, land use and rainfall intensity in a rational way and hence its name
Rational Method.

The scaling parameter C reflects the fact that not all the rainfall becomes
discharge. The method does not attempt to separate the different effects of
runoff production and runoff routing that controls the relationship between the
volume of rainfall falling on the catchment in a storm and the discharge at the
hydrograph peak. In addition, the constant C is required to take account of the
nonlinear relationship between antecedent conditions and the profile of storm
rainfall and the resulting runoff production. Thus, C is not a constant
parameter, but varies from storm to storm on the same catchment, and from
catchment to catchment for similar storms.

The other best known among the black box models is the unit hydrograph
model which was published by Sherman (1932), who used the idea that the
various time delays for runoff produced on the catchment to reach the outlet
could be represented as a time distribution without any direct link to the areas
involved. Because the routing procedure was linear, this distribution could be
normalized to represent the response to a unit of runoff production, or effective
rainfall, generated over the catchment in one time step. The method is one of
the most commonly used hydrograph modelling techniques in hydrology,
simple to understand and easy to apply. The unit hydrograph represents a
discrete transfer function for effective rainfall to reach the basin outlet, lumped
to the scale of the catchment.

13
Other empirical models are developed using linear regression and correlation methods
used to determine functional relationships between different data sets. The
relationships are characterized by correlation coefficients and standard deviation and
the parameter estimation is carried out using rigorous statistical methods involving
tests for significance and validity of the chosen model.

2.2.2 Lumped Conceptual Models

Lumped models treat the catchment as a single unit, with state variables that represent
average values over the catchment area, such as storage in the saturated zone. Due to
the lumped description, the description of the hydrological processes cannot be based
directly on the equations that are supposed to be valid for the individual soil columns.
Hence, the equations are semi-empirical, but still with a physical basis. Therefore, the
model parameters cannot usually be assessed from field data alone, but have to be
obtained through the help of calibration.

One of the first and most successful lumped digital computer models was the Stanford
Watershed model developed by Norman Crawford and Ray Linsley at Stanford
University. The Stanford model had up to 35 parameters, although it was suggested
that many of these could be fixed on the basis of the physical characteristics of the
catchment and only a much smaller number needed to be calibrated.

2.2.3 Distributed Process Description Based Models

Another approach to hydrological processes modelling was the attempt to produce
models based on the governing equations describing all the surface and subsurface

14
flow processes in the catchment. A first attempt to outline the potentials and some of
the elements in a distributed process description based model on a catchment scale was
made by Freeze and Harlan (1969). The calculations require larger computers to solve
the flow domain and points at the elements of the catchment.

Distributed models of this type have the possibility of defining parameter values for
every element in the solution mesh. They give a detailed and potentially more correct
description of the hydrological processes in the catchment than do the other model
types. The process equations require many different parameters to be specified for each
element and made the calibration difficult in comparison with the observed responses of
the catchment.

In principle parameter adjustment of this type of model is not necessary if the process
equations used are valid and if the parameters are strongly related to the physical
characteristics of the surface, soil and rock. In practice the model requires effective
values at the scale of the elements. Because of the heterogeneity of soil, surface
vegetation establishing a link between measurements and element values is difficult.
The Distributed Process Description Based Models can in principle be applied to
almost any kind of hydrological problem. The development is increased over the recent
years for the fact that the increase in computer power, programming tools and digital
databases and the need to handle processes and predictions of runoff, sediment
transport and/or contaminants.

Another reason is the need of the models for impact assessment. Changes in land use,
such as deforestation or urbanization often affect only part of a catchment area.

With a distributed model it is possible to examine the effects of such land use changes
in their correct spatial context by understanding the physical meaning between the
parameter values and the land use changes.

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Recent examples of distributed process based models include the SHE model (Abbott
et al., 1986), MIKE SHE (Refsgaard and Storm, 1995), IHDM (Institute of Hydrology
Distributed Model; Calver and Wood 1995), and THALES (Grayson et al. 1992), etc.

2.3Stochastic Time Series Models

Stochastic models allow for some randomness or uncertainty in the possible outcomes
due to uncertainty in input variables, boundary conditions or model parameters.
Traditionally, a stochastic model is derived from a time series analysis of the historical
record. The stochastic model can then be used for the generation of long hypothetical
sequences of events with the same statistical properties as the historical record. In this
technique several synthetic series with identical statistical properties are generated.
These generated sequences of data can then be used in the analysis of design variables
and their uncertainties, for example, when estimating reservoir storage requirements.

With regard to process description, the classical stochastic simulation models are
comparable to the empirical, black box models. Hence, stochastic time series models
are in reality composed of a simple deterministic core (the black box model) contained
within a comprehensive stochastic methodology.

So, these are the broad generic classes of rainfall-runoff models, lumped or distributed;
deterministic or stochastic.

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The vast majority of models used in rainfall-runoff modelling are deterministic.
Simpler models still offer so wide applicability and flexibility. If the interest is in
simulating and predicting a one time series, for instance, run-off prediction, simple
lumped parameter models can provide just as good simulation as complex process
description based models.

2.4Rational Method
One of the most commonly used for the calculation of peak flow from small areas is
the rational formula given as:

Where, Qp = peak flow (m3/s)

C = dimensionless runoff coefficient
i(tc,p)
= the mean intensity of precipitation (mm/h) for a
duration equal to tc and an exceedence probability p
A = drainage area in Km2
Assumptions inherent in the Rational Formula are as follows:
The peak flow occurs when the entire watershed is contributing to the
flow
 The rainfall intensity is the same over the entire drainage area
 The rainfall intensity is uniform over a time duration equal to the time of
concentration, tc . the time of concentration is the time required for water
to travel from the hydraulically most remote point of the basin to the point
of interest
 The frequency of the computed peak flow is the same as that of the
rainfall intensity, i.e., the 10-yr rainfall intensity is assumed to produce the
10-yr peak flow
 The coefficient of runoff is the same for all storms of all recurrence
probabilities
Because of these inherent assumptions, the Rational Formula should only be
applied to drainage areas smaller than 80 ha.

2.4.1Runoff Coefficient
The ground cover and a host of other hydrologic abstractions considerably affect the
coefficient. The rational equation in general relates the estimated peak discharge to a
theoretical maximum of 100% runoff. The Values of C vary from 0.05 for flat sandy areas
to 0.95 for impervious urban surfaces, and considerable knowledge of the catchment is
needed in order to estimate an acceptable value. The coefficient of runoff also varies for
different storms on the same catchment, and thus, using an average value for C, gives only
a rough estimate of Qp in small uniform urban areas. On top of this the Rational Formula
17
has been used for many years as a basis for engineering design for small land drainage
schemes and storm-water channels.

If the basin contains varying amount of different land cover or other

abstractions, a coefficient can be calculated through areal weighing as shown in
equation (2.2). Typical values are given in table 2.1 below.

2.2

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 Where x = subscript designating values for incremental areas with consistent
land cover

Table 2.1: Runoff coefficients for Rational formula

Type of Drainage Area Runoff Coefficient, C
Business:
 Downtown areas 0.70 – 0.95
Neighbor hood areas 0.50 – 0.70
Residential:
 Single –family areas 0.30 – 0.50
 Multi- units, detached 0.40 – 0.60
 Multi-units, attached 0.60 -0.75
 Suburban 0.25 – 0.40
 Apartment dwelling areas 0.50 – 0.70
Industrial
 Light areas 0.50 – 0.80
 Heavy areas 0.60 – 0.90
Parks, cemeteries 0.10 – 0.25
Playgrounds 0.20 – 0.40
Railroad yard areas 0.20 – 0.40
Unimproved areas 0.10 – 0.30
Lawns:
 Sandy soil, flat 2% 0.05 – 0.10
 Sandy soil, average, 2-7% 0.10 – 0.15
 Sandy soil, steep, 7% 0.15 – 0.20
 Heavy soil, flat, 2% 0.13 – 0.17
 Heavy soil, average 2-7% 0.18 – 0.22
 Heavy soil, steep, 7% 0.25 – 0.35
Streets:
 Asphalted 0.70 – 0.95
 Concrete 0.80 – 0.95
 Brick 0.70 – 0.85
Drives and walks 0.75 – 0.85
Roofs 0.75– 0.95

2.4.2 Rainfall intensity

Rainfall intensity, duration curve and frequency curves are necessary to use the Rational
method. Regional IDF curves need to be developed for the catchment in question.

Higher values are usually appropriate for steeply sloped areas and longer return
periods because infiltration and other losses have a proportionally smaller effect on
runoff in these cases

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 Figure 2.2: Example of IDF Curve
2.4.3Time of Concentration
tc is the time of concentration, the time required for rain falling at the farthest point of
the catchment to flow to the measuring point of the river. Thus, after time tc from the
commencement of rain, the whole of the catchment is taken to be contributing to the
flow. The value of i, the mean intensity, assumed that the rate of rainfall is constant during
tc, and that all the measured rainfall over the catchment area contributes to the peak flow.
The peak flow Qp occurs after the period tc.

There are a number of methods that can be used to estimate time of concentration (tc),
20
some of which are intended to calculate the flow velocity within individual segments of
the flow path (e.g. shallow concentrated flow, open channel flow, etc.) the time of
concentration can be calculated as the sum of the travel times within the various
consecutive flow segments.

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 (2.3)
Where:

(2.4)

Open Channel and pipe flow velocity: Flow in gullies empties in to channels or pipes.
Open channel flow is assumed to begin where the stream follows and defined path and
becomes visible/significant. Manning‟s equation can be used to estimate average flow
velocities in pipe and open channels.

(2.5)

22
Table 2.2: Intercept coefficients for velocity versus slope relationship of equation (2.5)

Table 2.3: Manning‟s Roughness coefficient (n) for overland flow

23
24
 (2.6)
Where:

For small natural catchments, a formula derived from data published by Kirprich for
agricultural areas could be used to give tc in hours by the following relationship:

2.7

Where: L = the length of the catchment along the longest river channel (in m)
S = overall catchment slope (in m/m)

Example 2.1:

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Solution:

26
Example 2.2:

= 0.457

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Example 2.3:

2.1 SCS Curve Number Method

(2.8)

28

(2.9)
Table 2.4: Runoff Curve Numbers for Urban areas (Average watershed conditions, Ia = 0.2 SR)

(2.10)

(2.11)

29
 (2.12)

Fp = adjustment factor, listed in

table 2.6

Example 2.4:

30
Table 2.5: Coefficients for SCS peak Discharge Method (equation 2.11)

Table 2.6: Adjustment factor (Fp) for pond and swamp areas that are spread
throughout the watershed

31
Table 2.7: Ia/P for selected rainfall depths and Curve Numbers

32
2.6Time-Area Method
The time – area method of obtaining runoff or discharge from rainfall can be considered as
an extension and improvement of the rational method. The peak discharge Qp is the sum
of flow – contributions from subdivisions of the catchment defined by time contours
(called isochrones), which are lines of equal flow – time to the river section where Qp is
required. The method is illustrated in Figure 2.2(a).

33
 a) Rainfall bar graph and Catchment showing isochrones of travel time

A TC
dA/dT

Are
a

0 Time,T
b) Time-area curve c) Time-area concentration curve
Figure 2.3: Time-area method
The flow from each contributing area bounded by two isochrones (T - Δ T, T) is obtained
from the product of the mean intensity of effective rainfall (i) from time (T - Δ T, T) is
obtained from the product of the mean intensity of effective rainfall
(i) from time T- Δ T to time T and the area (Δ A). Thus Q4, the flow at X at time 4h is
given by:

34
 Q4 = I3 Δ A1 + i2 Δ A2 + i1 Δ A3 + i0 Δ A4
i.e.

The unrealistic assumption made in the rational method of uniform rainfall intensity over
the whole catchment and during the whole of Tc is avoided in the time – area method,
where the catchment contributions are subdivided in time. The varying intensities within a
storm are averaged over discrete periods according to the isochrones time interval selected.
Hence, in deriving a flood peak for design purposes, a design storm with a critical
sequence of intensities can be used for the maximum intensities applied to the contributing
areas of the catchment that have most rapid runoff. However, when such differences within
a catchment are considered, there arises difficulty in determining Tc, the time after the
commencement of the storm when, by definition, Qp occurs.

2.7STREAM FLOW HYDROGRAPH

A hydrograph is a graphical plot of discharge of a natural stream or river versus time. The
hydrograph is a result of a particular effective rainfall hyetograph as modified by basin
flow characteristics. By definition, the volume of water under an effective rainfall
hyetograph is equal to the volume of surface runoff.

It has three characteristic parts: the rising limb, the crest segment and the falling limb or
depletion curve.

With reference to figure 2.4 the effective rainfall hyetograph consisting of a single
block of rainfall with duration D (T is also used in the lecture note alternatively) shown in
the upper left part of the figure produced the runoff hydrograph. The areas enclosed by the
hyetograph and the hydrograph each represent the same volume, V, of water from the
catchment. The maximum flow rate on the hydrograph is the peak flow, q p, while the time
from the start of the hydrograph to qp is the time to peak, tp. The total duration of the
hydrograph known as the base time, tb.

The lag time, tL is the time from the center of mass of effective rainfall to the peak of
runoff hydrograph. It is apparent that tp = tL + D/2, using this definition. Some define lag
time as the time from center of mass of effective rainfall to the

35
 center of the runoff hydrograph.

Effective
Rai rainfall
n
Peak Flow, qp
fall
tp

Rising Limb

Recession Limb

Base Flow

Time B
A
Q

Figure 2.4: Runoff Hydrograph

2.7.1 Hydrograph Analysis

One of the major tasks of the hydrograph analysis is to produce rainfall-runoff relationships
for a catchment area, for predicting runoffs as a result of certain rains which does not
involve the direct measurement of runoff.

Hydrograph describes the whole time history of the changing rate of flow from a catchment
due to rainfall event rather than predicting only the peak flow (Rational Method). A
natural hydrograph would be the result of continuous measurements of discharge (with a
recording device) producing the required relationship for any times interval, e.g. for a
single flood event related to a single storm.

Hydrograph may also show mean values of events observed over a long period (of several
years) as daily, monthly or annual averages in their temporal distribution over a year (or the
rainy season or any other defined period of interest) giving the solution of specific
problems (average storage behavior, average available discharge, etc).

Depending upon the unit of time involved, we have:

36
1.Annual hydrographs showing the variation of daily or weekly or 10 days daily mean
flows over a year.
2.Monthly hydrographs showing the variation of daily mean flows over a month

3.Seasonal hydrographs representing the variation of the discharge in a particular

season such as the monsoon season or dry season
4.Flood hydrographs or hydrographs due to storm representing stream flow due to a storm
over a catchment.

The hydrograph of stream flow against time has two main components, the area under the
hump, labeled surface runoff (which is produced by volume of water derived from the
storm event), and the broad band near the time axis, representing base flow contributed
from groundwater

37
 Peak Flow, qp

Q Inflection Point

Surface Run off

B
Base Flow

A
Base Flow

Time
Figure 2.5: Runoff Hydrograph

At the beginning of the rainfall, the river level (and hence the discharge) is low and a
period of time elapses before the river begins to rise. During this period the rainfall is
being intercepted by vegetation or is soaking into the ground and making up soil-moisture
deficits. The length of the delay before the river rises depends on the wetness of the
catchment before the storm and on the intensity of the rainfall itself.

When the rainfall has satisfied catchment deficits and when surfaces and soils are
saturated, the rain begins to contribute to the stream flow. The proportion of rainfall that
finds its way into a river is being the effective rainfall, the rest being lost as in the form
of evaporation, detention on the ground and vegetation surface or retention in the soil.
As the storm proceeds, the proportion of effective rainfall increases and that of lost
rainfall decreases.

The volume of surface runoff, represented by the area under the hydrograph minus the base
flow, can be considered in two main subdivisions to simplify the complex water
movements over the surface and in the ground. The effective rainfall makes the immediate
contribution to the rising limb from A to the peak of the hydrograph and, even when the
rainfall stops, continue until the inflection

38
point (condition of maximum storage). Beyond this point, it is generally considered
that the flow comes from the water temporarily stored in the soil. This so-called
interflow continues to provide the flow of the recession curve until the water from the
whole of the effective rainfall is completely depleted at B.

The boundary between surface runoff and base flow is difficult to define and depends very
much on the geological structure and composition of the catchment. Permeable aquifers,
such as limestone and sandstone strata, sustain high base flow contributions, but
impervious clays and built-up areas provide little or no base flow to a river. The base flow
levels are also affected by the general climatic state of the area: they tend to be high after
period of wet weather and can be very low after prolonged drought. Groundwater provides
the total flow of the recession curve until the next period of wet weather.

The main aims of the engineering hydrologist are to quantify the various components of the
hydrograph, by analyzing past events, in order to relate effective rainfall to surface runoff,
and thereby to be able to estimate and design for future events. As a result of the
complexity of the processes that create stream flow from rainfall, many simplifications
and assumptions have to be made.

2.7.2 Factors affecting flood hydrograph

Table 2.8: Factors affecting flood hydrograph
Physiographic factors Climatic factors
1 Basin characteristics 1 Storm characteristics: precipitation,
 shape intensity, duration, magnitude and
 size
 slope
movement of storms
 nature of the valley
 elevation
 drainage
2 density Infiltration 2 Initial losses
characteristics
 land use and cover
 soil type and
geological conditions 3 Evapotranspiration
3  lakes, swamps and
other storages
Channel characteristics: cross-
section, roughness and storage
capacity

2.7.3 Effective Rainfall

At the start of a hydrograph analysis it is advisable to begin with a hydrograph produced by
a single rain event to identify the runoff characteristics of the catchment area. Such a single
event hydrograph is produced by the net or effective rain forming a flood wave or the
direct runoff which will be super imposed on the existing flow (base flow) of the river.
The portion of rainfall that finds its way into a river is known as the effective rainfall, the
rest being lost in evaporation, detention on the vegetation and ground surface or retention
39
in the soil. As the storm proceeds, the portion of effective rainfall increases and that of lost
rainfall decrease.

For the purposes of correlating direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) with the rainfall, which
produces the flow, it is necessary to obtain the effective rainfall hydrograph (hyetograph)
(ERH) which can be obtained by deducting the losses from the total rain. At the beginning
of a storm there could be considerable interception of the rainfall and initial wetting of
surfaces before the rainfall become „effective‟ to form surface runoff.

The loss-rate is dependent on the state of the catchment before the storm and is difficult to
assess quantitatively. The two simplified methods of determining the effective rainfall are:
I. The ɸ-index method
II. The initial and continuing loss method.

I. The ɸ -index method: this method assumes a constant loss rate of ɸ -mm from
the beginning of the rainfall event. This amount accounts for interception,
evaporation loss and surface detention in pools and hollows.
II. Initial and continuing loss rate method: In this method all the rainfall up to
the time of rise of the hydrograph is considered lost, and there is a continuing
loss-rate at same level after words.

A choice between the two methods depends on knowledge of the catchment but, as the
timing of the extent of initial loss is arbitrary, the fixing of the beginning of effective
rainfall at the beginning of runoff in the stream neglects any lag time in the drainage
process and thus somewhat unrealistic. A constant loss-rate, the ɸ-index, would therefore
seem to be more readily applicable.

2.7.4 Separation of Base Flow and Runoff

The total runoff consists of direct runoff and the base flow. For hydrograph analysis, the
base flow has to be separated from the total runoff.

There are several methods of base flow separation. Some of them that are that are in
common use are:

40
Straight-line method (Method-I)
The separation of the base flow is achieved by joining with a straight-line beginning of the
direct runoff to a point on the recession limb representing the end of the direct runoff.
Point B the end of the recession limb may be located by an empirical equation for the time
interval N (days) from the peak to the point B is
N = 0.83A0.2 (2.15)

Where A = drainage in km2 and N in days

Method-II
In this method the base flow curve existing prior to the commencement of the surface
runoff is extended till it intersects the ordinate drawn at the peak Point
C. This point is joined to point B by a straight line. Segment AC and CB
separate the base flow and surface runoff.
Method-III
In this method the base flow recession curve after the depletion of the floodwater is
extended backwards till it intersects the ordinate at the point of inflection (line EF). Points
A and F are joined by an arbitrary smooth curve. This method of base-flow is
realistic in situations where the groundwater contributions are significant and reach
the stream quickly.
The surface runoff obtained after the base-flow separation is known as direct runoff hydrograph (DRH).

41
Figure 2.6: Base flow separation

42
2.8The Unit Hydrograph (UH)

A major step forward in hydrological analysis was the concept of the unit hydrograph
introduced by the American engineer Sherman in 1932.

The unit hydrograph (UH) of duration T is defined as the storm runoff due to unit depth
(e.g. 1 mm rain depth) of effective rainfall, generated uniformly in space and time on the
catchment in time T. The duration can be chosen arbitrarily so that we can have a 1h UH, a
6h UH, etc. in general a D-h hour unit hydrograph applicable to a given catchment. The
definition of unit hydrograph implies the following.

1. The unit hydrograph represents the lumped response of the catchment to a unit
rainfall excess of T-h duration to produce a direct-runoff hydrograph. It relates
only the direct runoff to the rainfall excess. Hence the volume of water
contained in the unit hydrograph must be equal to the rainfall excess. As 1
mm depth of rainfall excess is considered the area of the unit hydrograph is
equal to a volume given by 1 mm over the catchment.
2. The rainfall is considered to have an average intensity of excess rainfall (ER)
of 1/T mm/h for the durationT-h of the storm.
3. The distribution of the storm is considered to be all over the catchment.

The requirement of uniformity in areal distribution of the effective rainfall is

rarely met and indeed unless the non-uniformity is pronounced, its effect is
neglected.

43
 RF R
R
RF

TUH
2xTUH
Q
Q

T T

a) b)

Surface runoff
RF

T 2T
c)

Figure 2.7: The unit hydrograph produced by 1 mm of effective rainfall

The figure shows the definition of rainfall-runoff relationship with 1mm of uniform
effective rainfall occurring over a time T producing the hydrograph labeled TUH. The units
of the ordinates of the t-hour unit hydrograph are m3/s per mm of rain. The volume of water
in the surface runoff is given by the area under the hydrograph and is equivalent to the
1mm depth of effective rainfall over the catchment area.

The unit hydrograph method makes several assumptions that give it simple properties
assisting in its application.

1.There is a direct proportional relationship between the effective rainfall and the storm
runoff. This is known as Law of proportionality.

Figure 1.6 b) above shows that two units of effective rainfall falling in time T produce a
surface runoff hydrograph that has its ordinates twice the TUH ordinates, and similarly

44
for any proportional value. For example, if
6.5 mm of effective rainfall fall on a catchment area in T h, then the hydrograph resulting
from that effective rainfall is obtained by multiplying the ordinates of the TUH by 6.5From
this law it can be seen that different rain intensities with the same duration of the rain
will produce hydrographs with different magnitudes but the same base length;

however, there will be only one unit hydrograph for the same duration.

If the UH for a certain duration T is known then the runoff of any other rain of the duration T may
be computed by multiplying the UH ordinates with the ratio of the given rain intensity with
unit rain.

2.The total hydrograph of direct runoff due to n successive amounts of effective rainfall
(for instance R1 and R2) is equal to the sum of the n successive hydrographs produced by
the effective rainfall (the latter lagged by T h on the former). This is known as Law of
Superposition. Once a TUH is available, it can be used to estimate design flood
hydrographs from design storms. The law of superposition is demonstrated in Figure 1.6
c above.
3.The third property of TUH assumes that the effective rainfall-surface runoff
relationship does not change with time, i.e., the same TUH always occurs whenever the
unit of effective rainfall in T h is applied on the catchment. Using this time invariance
assumption, once a TUH has been derived for a catchment area, it could be used to
represent the response of the catchment whenever required.

2.8.1Derivation of the Unit Hydrograph from single storms

The derivation of the unit hydrograph of a catchment from single storms proceeds in
the following stages:
1.The rainfall records are scanned to find a storm of desired duration that gives a fairly
uniform distribution in time and space. The hyetograph of this storm is constructed
using a convenient uniform interval of time.
2.The base flow is separated from the hydrograph using one of the methods presented
in section 1.7.3.
3.The surface runoff volume is determined as a depth of flow by numerical integration:

45
 (2.16)

Where,
d = depth of surface runoff in mm
Δt = uniform time interval in hours at which the ordinates of the surface runoff are
measured
Δ Q = sum of all ordinates of surface runoff hydrograph in m3/s A =
catchment area in Km2
1.The ordinates of the surface runoff hydrograph are divided by the runoff depth d due to
the ordinates of the unit hydrograph.
2.The unit hydrograph for effective rainfall of duration T, the TUH, is plotted, and the
area under the curve is checked to see if the enclosed volume is equivalent to unit effective
rainfall over the area of catchment.

Example 2.6 Derivation of Unit Hydrograph

2.8.2 Changing of the Duration of the UH

There are two methods to change the duration of unit hydrograph: (i) by superposition from
u(T1,t) to u(T2,t), where T2 = n*T1, with n an integer > 1,

46
hence only enlargements of multiple of T1 are possible, (ii) by S-curve technique from
u(T1,t) to u(T2,t) where T2 = *T1, with a real > 0, hence, T2 may be larger than T1 but
also smaller than T1. It should be remembered that a unit hydrograph refers to unit depth
of rainfall excess so if the duration is T hours the excess rainfall intensity is 1/T.

Enlargement of T by superposition:
Say, it is required to derive from U(T1,t) a unit hydrograph of U(T2,t) with T2 = 3T1.
The U(T1,t) refers to a rainfall intensity of 1/T1 to give a unit depth, whereas U(T2.t) should
refer to 1/T2 to give unit depth of effective rainfall. The U(T2.t) is obtained by superposition
of three U(T1,t) shifted T1 hours apart. By adding the ordinates of U(T1,t) u(T1, t-T1) and
u(T1,t-2T1) at the corresponding times the resulting hydrograph Q(t) will refer to an
effective rainfall of 3T1*1/T1 = 3 units. Hence to get U(T2,t) all Q(t) ordinates have to
be multiplied by (i2/i1) = (1/T2)/(1/T1) = T1/T2 = 1/3, to let it refer to unit depth of rainfall.

ie 1/T1

u(1,t)

u(3,t)

Qt t

Figure 2.8: Conversion from u(1,t) to u(3,t)

Example 2.7:

S-curve:

The S-curve is the hydrograph of runoff of continuous rainfall of intensity i.e.

=1/T1. To derive the S-curve assume a T-hour unit hydrograph with non-zero ordinates: u1,
u2, u3…,un. The base length is (n+1) T. the S-curve is obtained by superposition of n T-hour
UHs as shown in figure 2.9. The maximum is reached after n time of T hours. This
maximum is equal to Qs, i.e. the equilibrium discharge:

47
 2.17

Where,Qs = the maximum rate at which an ER intensity of 1/T can drain out of the
catchment of area, A (km2)
T1 = unit storm in hours

48
 2500
S11
S10

2000

1500

1000

500

S1 S2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Time(hr)

Figure 2.9: S-curve derivation

The S-curve is computed using the following scheme:

S1 = u1
S2 = u1+u2 = u2+S1
S3 = u1+u2+u3 = u3 +S2
.

Sn = u1+u2+u3+…+un = un+Sn-1 (2.18)

So, generally;
Si = ui+Si-1 for i =
1,…,n Si = Si-1 for i >n

The T2-hour UH is obtained from the difference between two S-curves distanced
T2-hours apart, corrected for the effective intensity as follows. Since the S-curve
refers to continuous rain of 1/T1 units, the difference between the S-curves
displaced by T2 hours represents surface runoff from (1/T1)xT2. A rainfall with
duration T2 requires an intensity i2 = 1/T2 to give unit depth. Hence, the S-curve
difference has to be multiplied with the ratio i2/i1= (1/T2)/(1/T1) = T1/T2 to get
a unit depth in T2 hours. Hence, u(T2,t) follows from:

49
 2.19

50
 Note that the base length follows from Tb2 = Tb1 - T1 +T2. The procedure is
shown in figure 2.10 below.

3000

S-Curve@1hr
2500

S-Curve@2hr
2000

1500

1000
Q(m3/s)
1UH
500
2UH

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Time (Hr)

Figure 2.10:1-Hr and 2-Hr UHs from S-Curve of 1 and 2 Hrs

51
 The errors in interpolation of UH ordinates often result in oscillation of S-
curve at the equilibrium value, Qs. This results in the derived T-h UH having an
abnormal sequence of discharges (sometimes even negative values) at the tail end.
The S-curve and the resulting T h UH is adjusted by smoothening the curves.

2.9 Applications of Unit Hydrograph

As the UH establishes a relationship between the DRH and ERH for a catchment, they
are of immense value in the study of the hydrology of a catchment.

They are of great use in:

- The development of flood hydrograph for extreme rainfall magnitudes for

use in design of hydraulic structures
- Extension of flood-flow records based on rainfall records
- The development of flood forecasting and warning systems based on
rainfall.

2.10 Synthetic Unit Hydrographs

To develop unit hydrographs to a catchment, detailed information about the rainfall and
the resulting flood hydrograph are needed. However, such information might be
available only at a few locations and in a majority of catchments, especially those, which
are at remote locations; the data could normally be scarce. In order to construct UH for
such areas, empirical equations of regional validity, which relate the important hydrograph
characteristics to the basin characteristics are of most important. Unit hydrographs derived
from such relationships are known as synthetic unit hydrographs.

52
2.10.1 Snyder’s method
Snyder (1938), based on a study of a large number of catchments in the Appalachian
highlands of eastern United States developed a set of empirical equations for synthetic-unit
hydrographs in those areas.

The most important characteristics of a basin affecting a hydrograph due to a given storm is
basin lag. Actually basin lag (also known as lag time) is the time difference between the
cancroids of the input (rainfall excess) and the out put (surface runoff) i.e. T L. Physically, it
represents the main time of travel of water particles from all parts of the catchment to the
outlet during a given storm. Its value is determined essentially on the physical features
of the catchment, such as size, length, stream density and vegetation. For its determination,
however, only a few important catchment characteristics are considered. For simplicity,
Snyder has used a somewhat different definition of basin lag (denoted by tp) in his
methodology. This tp is practically of the same order of magnitude as TL and in this
section the term basin lag is used to denote Snyder‟s tp.

The first of the Snyder‟s equation relates the basin lag tp. Defined as the time interval from
the mid point of the unit rainfall excess to the peak of the unit hydrograph (Figure 2.12
below) to the basin characteristics as:
tp = Ct (LLc)0.3 (2.20)

Where,
tp in hours
L = basin length measured along the watercourse from the basin divide to the
gauging station in km.
Lc = distance along the main watercourse from the gauging station to the point
opposite (or nearest) the watershed centroid in km
Ct = a regional constant representing watershed slope and storage
The value of Ct in Snyder‟s study ranged from 1.35 to 1.65. However, studies by
many investigators have shown that Ct depends upon the region under study
and wide variations with the value of Ct ranging from 0.3 to 6.0 have been
reported.

Catchment
Tributary boundary

Centroid of Catchment

L
Lc

Outlet

53
Figure 2.11: Basin characteristics

54
 Qp

0.75Qp

0.50Qp

Figure 2.12: Elements of synthetic unit hydrograph

Important relationships:
Basin lag tp
(2.21)

CtL and n are basin constants. (n= 0.38 and CtL = 1.715, 1.03, 0.50 for
mountainous, foot-hill and valley drainages of USA)
Standard duration of effective rainfall, tr (in hours)
tr = t p

(2.22)
5.5
Peak discharge Qp (m3/s) of unit hydrograph of standard duration tr
Qps = 2.78CpA/tp
55
 (2.23)

Where A = km2, Cp = regional constant

If a non-standard rainfall duration tR h is adopted, instead of the value tr to

derive a unit hydrograph the value of the basin lag is affected. The modified
basin lag is given by:

2.24

Where t‟p = basin lag in hours for an effective duration of tR. Therefore Qp,

2.25

56
 (2.25)

Note that when tR = tr implies QP = Qps

The time base of unit hydrograph is given by Snyder as:

tb= (3+t‟p/8)days =(72+t‟p)hours 2.26

This equation gives reasonable estimates of time base for large catchments; it
may give excessively large values of time base for small catchments.

Taylor and Schwartz recommend

With tb taken as the next larger integer value divisible by tR i.e. tb is about five
times the time to peak.

To assist in the sketching of unit hydrographs,

W50 = 5.87
q1.08

and W50
W75= (2.28)
1.75
Where W50 = width of unit hydrograph in hour at 50% peak discharge
W75 = width of unit hydrograph in hour at 75% peak discharge
q = Qp/A = peak discharge per unit catchment area in m3/s/km2

Since the coefficients Ct and Cp vary from region to region, in practical applications it is
advisable that the value of these coefficients are determined from known unit

57
hydrographs of meteorologically homogeneous catchments and then used in the basin under
study. This way Snyder‟s equations are of use in scaling the hydrograph information from
one catchment to another similar catchment.

2.11 UH from a complex storm

In nature storms are most likely occurring with changing intensities over their total
duration. Natural hydrograph related to such complex storms may be considered as several
superimposed hydrographs related to single storms of constant intensity forming the total
given storm.

The resulting storm from the complex storm is divided into sub storms of equal duration
and constant intensity. After defining the effective rain from the individual storm and
computing the direct runoff hydrograph, the composite DRH is obtained.

At various time intervals 1D, 2D, 3D, … from the start of the ERH, let the ordinates of the
unit hydrograph be u1, u2, u3, … and the ordinates of the composite DRH be Q1, Q2, Q3,….

Then;

58
 Q1 = R1u1
Q2 =R1u2 + R2u1
Q3 = R1u3 +R2u2 + R3u1
Q4 = R1u4 + R2u3 +R3u2
Q5 = R1u5 + R2u4 +R3u3 (2.29)
……………………………..

And so on.

R3u1

R3u2
Discharge

R2u1

R2u2

R2u3
R1u4
R1u2

R1u3
R1u1

Time

Figure 2.13: Unit hydrograph from complex storm

From equation (2.29) the values of u3, u2, and u1 … can be determined. However
this method suffers from the disadvantage that the errors propagate and increases
as the calculations proceeds.

The Un at higher n values (towards the end of the recession limb) can contain
oscillations, if so, the final values may be smoothened to find a reasonable
curvature. The reason for such behavior is the accumulation of small errors through
the whole process of calculation. Matrix methods with optimization schemes are
useful to reduce the number of unknown variables.

The other approach is to fit a suitable shape of UH to an average profile of the

individual UH. An arithmetic mean of superimposed ordinates may be lower
than the individual peaks. The proper procedure is to compute average peak
flow and time to peak. The average unit hydrograph is then sketched to conform to
the shape of other graphs, passing through the computed average peak and having
the required unit volume.
59
2.11 Instantaneous unit Hydrograph (IUH)
For a given catchment a number of unit hydrographs of different durations are
possible. The shape of these different UHs depends upon the value of D. As the
value of D is reduced, the intensity of rainfall excess being equal to 1/D
increases and the unit hydrograph becomes more skewed. A finite UH is indicated
as the duration The limiting case of a unit hydrograph of zero

60
duration is known as instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH). This IUH is a
fictitious, conceptual UH which represent the direct runoff from the catchment
due to an instantaneous precipitation of the rainfall excess volume of 1 unit
(cm). IUH is represented by U(t) or sometimes by U(0,t). It is a single-peaked
hydrograph with a finite base width and its important properties being:
1. 0 ≤ u ≤ u(t) a positive value, for t > o;
2. u(t) =0 for t ≤0;
3. u(t) = 0 for t ∞;

4. u(t)dt unit depthover thecatchment; and

0
5. Time to peak = time to the centroid of the curve.

A ERH
B
C
D

B A
Discharge

Time

Figure 2.14: Unit hydrograph of different duration

61
 I( t )

Q (t)

Figure 2.15: Convolution of I(t) of IUH

2.13Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph

Dimensionless unit hydrograph is used to develop a synthetic Uh in place of Synder‟s
equations. A typical UH developed by SCS has ordinates expressed as a ratio to the
peak discharge (Q/Qp) and the abscissa as ratio of time to peak time (t/tpk).
Q/Qp = 1.0, when t/tpk = 1.0

62
 Figure 2.16: Dimensionless SCS unit hydrograph

2.14 Hydrology of Ungauged Catchments

Extrapolation of flow data to ungauged sites:
All too often the stream flow data that are available from measured gauging stations are not
from location for which a project site analysis is to be made. Methods are required to
develop extrapolation of measured flow data which will be representative of a given site
on a stream.
In regions where stream flow does not vary with respect to the contributing drainage area
flow duration curves can be plotted for the gauged sites. From these developed flow
duration curves, a family of parametric flow duration curves can be developed, in

which flow is plotted against the average annual

runoff ( R ) or annual discharge, Q at the respective gages for several exceedence
interval percentages. A separate curve is developed for each exceedence interval used. A
correlation analysis is then performed to obtain
the best-fitting curve for the data taken from the measured records of stream
flow.

63
Figure 2.17: FDC for gauging stations in a homogeneous drainage basin

Figure 2.18: Parametric flow duration curves

Determination of average annual discharge:

To use the parametric flow duration curves effectively, it is necessary to

determine the average annual discharge, Q , at the point or location on the stream for
which a flow analysis is to be made. Isohytal maps developed for normal annual
precipitation in a river basin are helpful for determining the annual discharge. The
records of precipitation and stream flow data should represent the same period of
recoUtilizing the records of average annual precipitation input to the basins at measured
streams nearby or having similar hydrologic characteristics, a runoff coefficient is
estimated for the drainage basin being studied. The product of this
coefficient and the computed normal annual precipitation input to the basin and
the basin area can be used to calculate the average annual discharge as:

With the average runoff annual discharge estimate it is possible to enter the
parametric flow duration curve and determine values of flow for different
exceedence percentages for which the parametric flow duration curve has been
developed.
Example 2.7: Hydrology of Ungauged Catchment

A drainage basin has a power plant site located at the mouth of the catchment. An
upstream reservoir regulates the flow at the upper portions of the drainage. The
area of the hydrologic map representative of the drainage basin below the reservoir
has been planimetered and given in table A below. A runoff coefficient for the
basin on the annual basis is 0.65. The historic monthly flows of a nearby stream
gauge on the downstream side of the stream are presented in table B. The gauge
records are considered to be a good representation of seasonal variation of runoff
for the ungauged portion of the river drainage basin. The outflows from the
reservoir are given in table C. Using the information provided compute the river
flow at its mouth that would be useful for the hydropower study. Scale of the
isohytal map is 1:400,000.

Table a: Values of planimetered areas downstream of the reservoir

Avg value of Planimetered Area (mm2)
precipitation between
Isohytal lines (mm)
762 11.94
889 26.13
1016 14.45
Table b: Monthly flows for an average year in a representative gauged stream
Month Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
No.
of 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31
Days
Discharg
e (m3/s) 7.11 7.14 9.88 33.13 80.02 64.31 22.57 11.84 9.40 9.40 9.51 8.44

Table c: Out flow from the upper reservoir

Month Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Discharg
e (m3/s) 1.42 1.27 2.27 2.83 5.66 7.08 7.08 5.66 1.98 1.84 1.70 1.56

65
 Flow Duration Curve

8.00
7.50
7.00
Q (m3/s)

6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
% of time Exceeded or Equalled

Figure 2.19: Flow duration curves

3
The firm flow = 1.32 m /sec

66
 Tutorial Problem Set 1 ( Taken from Chapter 13 – Rainfall-Runoff Relation ship, Elisabeth
Shaw)
For G-2HA&B
1. The principal dimensions of a catchment are shown in Figure 1 below. If all isochrones
at intervals of 1 min are arcs of circles centered at the outfall and the velocity of flow is
assumed constant at 1 ms-1, draw the time area diagram for the catchment. Ignore times of
entry. A design storm has the following sequence of 1-min intensities:
1.1 , 6.4, 8.1, 10. 7, 14.1, 19.6, 30.3, 43.8, 28.0, 20.8, 12.3 and 4. 5 mm h-1
Assuming a runoff coefficient of 0.25, estimate the peak rate of flow at the outfall.

150 m

360 m

200 m

Outfall

Figure 1
2. The 1-h 1 mm unit hydrograph for a small catchment is given in the Table 1 below.
Determine the peak of the hydrograph that should result from the following storm: 5 mm in the
first hour, no rain in the next 30 min, and 8 mm of rain in the next final hour. Assume a loss
rate of 3 mmh-1 in the first hour and 2 mmh-1 for the remainder of the storm

67
Table 1

Time (h) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Flow(m3/s) 0 0.9 3.0 5.5 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0

68
3. During a notable storm, rainfall measurements were made at five stations in a particular
river catchment. Given the ordinates of the 5-h (1mm) unit hydrograph shown in Table 2
below, derive the outflow hydrograph of the storm for the gauging station at the river outlet,
assuming 80% of the total precipitation is lost at a constant rate.
(Note: Refer Figure P4 on Page 543 from Elisabeth Shaw)
Table 2

Time(h) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
U(m3s-1) 0 0.8 5.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.3
Time (h) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
3 -1
U(m s 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0

4. An acceptable 1-h unit hydrograph (10 mm) has been derived for a catchment. Its
ordinates are shown in Table 3. What is the approximate area of the catchment? Determine the
peak flow that would result from a storm whose effective rainfall, assumed over the whole
catchment, is given in Table 4.
Table 3

Time (h) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
u(t) (m3s-1) 0 12 35 24 16 8 3 0

Table 4
Time (h) 0 1 2 30
Total accumulated effective rainfall (mm) 0 6 26 35

5. The ordinates of the 1-h unit hydrograph of a catchment area are summarized in Table 5
below.
Table 5

Time(h) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3 -1
TUH Ordinate (m s ) 0 0.8 5.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.6
Time (h) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
3 -1
TUH Ordinate (m s 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0

a) Derive the S-Curve for the catchment

b) Use the S-Curve to obtain the 2-h unit hydrograph; and

69
c) Forecast the peak runoff that would result from storm in which the effective
rainfall totals in two consecutive 2-h periods were 20 mm and 5 mm.

70
Suggested solution for Tutorial Problem Set 1 (Taken from Chapter 13 –
Rainfall-Runoff Relation ship, Elisabeth Shaw)

1. Time Area Method

Intensity
Area I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 I6
A1 A1I1
A2 A2I1 A1I2
A3 A3I1 A2I2 A1I3
A4 A4I1 A3I2 A2I3 A1I4
A5 A5I1 A4I2 A3I3 A2I4 A1I5
A6 A6I1 A5I2 A4I3 A3I4 A2I5 A1I6
A6I2 A5I3 A4I4 A3I5 A2I6
A6I3 A5I4 A4I5 A3I6
A6I4 A5I5 A4I6
A6I5 A5I6
A6I6

Intensity I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 I6 I7 I8 I9 I10 I11 I12

mm/hr 5.1 6.4 8.1 10.7 14.1 19.6 30.3 43.8 28.0 20.8 12.3 4.5

Option-I:

Max
Sum 64.000 89.200 126.600 146.500 156.600 154.800 139.700

Qp
AiIi AiIi AiIi AiIi AiIi AiIi (l/s)
38070 0 0 0 0 0 2.64
114210 52920 0 0 0 0 11.61
190350 158760 81810 0 0 0 29.93
228420 264600 245430 118260 0 0 59.49
142762.5 317520 409050 354780 75600 0 90.26
47587.5 198450 490860 591300 226800 56160 111.89
0 66150 306787.5 709560 378000 168480 113.12
0 0 102262.5 443475 453600 280800 88.90
0 0 0 147825 283500 336960 53.35
0 0 0 0 94500 210600 21.19
0 0 0 0 0 70200 4.88
0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

71
 Option –II:

A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I A*I Qp (l/s)
13770.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.96
41310.0 17280.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.07
68850.0 51840.0 21870.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.90
82620.0 86400.0 65610.0 28890.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.30
51637.5 103680.0 109350.0 86670.0 38070.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.04
17212.5 64800.0 131220.0 144450.0 114210.0 52920.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.45
0.0 21600.0 82012.5 173340.0 190350.0 158760.0 81810.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.16
0.0 0.0 27337.5 108337.5 228420.0 264600.0 245430.0 118260.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.92
0.0 0.0 0.0 36112.5 142762.5 317520.0 409050.0 354780.0 75600.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.77
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47587.5 198450.0 490860.0 591300.0 226800.0 56160.0 0.0 0.0 111.89
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66150.0 306787.5 709560.0 378000.0 168480.0 33210.0 0.0 115.43
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 102262.5 443475.0 453600.0 280800.0 99630.0 12150.0 96.66
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 147825.0 283500.0 336960.0 166050.0 36450.0 67.42
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94500.0 210600.0 199260.0 60750.0 39.24
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70200.0 124537.5 72900.0 18.59
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41512.5 45562.5 6.05
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15187.5 1.05

72
Q

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1 2 3 4 5 6

73
 2. Determination of Peak of the hydrograph

Time (h) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Flow(m3/s) 0 0.9 3 5.5 4.3 3 1.9 1 0.4 0

1-Hr UH

74
Time (Minute) RF (mm) Loss Rate (mm/hr) Loss (mm) Effective RF
60 5 3 3 2
30 0 2 1 0
60 8 2 2 6

Time
(h) U(m3/s) 2 mm 0 mm 6 mm Outflow

0.0 0.0 2 0 0
0.5 0.9 2 0 1.8 0 1.8
1.0 3.0 2 0 6 0 6
1.5 5.5 2 0 6 11 0 0 11
2.0 4.3 2 0 6 8.6 0 5.4 14
2.5 3.0 2 0 6 6 0 18 24
3.0 1.9 2 0 6 3.8 0 33 36.8
3.5 1.0 2 0 6 2 0 25.8 27.8
4.0 0.4 2 0 6 0.8 0 18 18.8
4.5 0.0 2 0 6 0 0 11.4 11.4
5.0 0 6 0 6 6
5.5 6 2.4 2.4
6.0 6 0 0

75
3. Derive the outflow hydrograph of the storm for the gauging station at
the river outlet, assuming 80% of the total precipitation is lost at a
constant rate

76
 Time Average R Effec. RF By Theisson Polygon
(Hr) (mm) Loss (mm) Method
5 32 25.6 6.4 32.1875 6.4375
5 24 19.2 4.8 24.0625 4.8125

Time(h) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
3 -1
U(m s ) 0 0.8 5.0 7.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.3
Time (h) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
3 -1
U(m s 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0

R2 = R1 = R2 =
R1 = 6.4 4.8 Outflow 6.4375 4.8125 Outflow
3 -1
Time(h) U(m s ) mm mm Hydro. mm mm Hydro.
0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
5 0.8 5.12 0 5.12 5.15 0.00 5.15
10 5 32 3.84 35.84 32.19 3.85 36.04
15 7.5 48 24 72 48.28 24.06 72.34
20 5 32 36 68 32.19 36.09 68.28
25 2.7 17.28 24 41.28 17.38 24.06 41.44
30 2 12.8 12.96 25.76 12.88 12.99 25.87
35 1.6 10.24 9.6 19.84 10.30 9.63 19.93
40 1.3 8.32 7.68 16 8.37 7.70 16.07
45 1.1 7.04 6.24 13.28 7.08 6.26 13.34
50 0.9 5.76 5.28 11.04 5.79 5.29 11.09
55 0.8 5.12 4.32 9.44 5.15 4.33 9.48
60 0.6 3.84 3.84 7.68 3.86 3.85 7.71
65 0.4 2.56 2.88 5.44 2.58 2.89 5.46
70 0.3 1.92 1.92 3.84 1.93 1.93 3.86
75 0.1 0.64 1.44 2.08 0.64 1.44 2.09
80 0 0 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.48 0.48
90 0 0 0.00 0.00

77
 80

70

60

50
Q

40

30

20

10

00 20 40 60 80 100

4. Determine the peak flow that would result from a storm whose effective
rainfall, assumed over the whole catchment

Time (h) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3 -1
u(t) (m s ) 0 12 35 24 16 8 3 0

Time (h) 0 1 2 3 Time 0 1 2 3

Total acc. Eff.RF(mm) 0 6 26 35 RF (mm) - 6 20 9

Time u(t) (m3s-1) u(t) (m3s-1) Total

(h) (10 mm) (1 mm) Hydrograph
0 0 0 0 0
1 12 1.2 7.2 0 7.2
2 35 3.5 21 24 0 45
3 24 2.4 14.4 70 10.8 95.2
4 16 1.6 9.6 48 31.5 89.1
5 8 0.8 4.8 32 21.6 58.4
6 3 0.3 1.8 16 14.4 32.2
7 0 0 0 6 7.2 13.2
8 98 0 2.7 2.7
9 0 0

3.6 t Q
d
A
78
From this the approximate area of the catchment = 35.28 sq. km.

79
 Total Hydrograph
Q (m3/s) 120

100 (3; 95.2)

80
60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (Hr)

5. a) Derive the S-Curve for the catchment

Tim TUH S-
e Ord. Curve
(Hr
)
0 0 0
1 25 0 25
2 125 25 0 150
3 358 125 25 0 508
4 465 358 125 25 0 973
5 405 465 358 125 25 0 1378
6 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 1683
7 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 1903
8 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2073
9 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2203
10 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2293
11 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2353
12 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2388
13 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2408
14 8 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 0 2416
15 0 8 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 25 2416
16 0 8 20 35 60 90 130 170 220 305 405 465 358 125 2416

80
 S
S Q
S
S

S
S S

b) Use the S-Curve to obtain the 2-h unit hydrograph

Tim S- Lagged
e Curve by 2 S1 – S2 2TUH RF1=20m RF2=5mm Total
(Hr hr m
)
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 25 25 12.5 250 250
2 150 0 150 75 1500 0 1500
3 508 25 483 241.5 4830 62.5 4892.5
4 973 150 823 411.5 8230 375 8605
5 1378 508 870 435 8700 1207.5 9907.5
6 1683 973 710 355 7100 2057.5 9157.5
7 1903 1378 525 262.5 5250 2175 7425
8 2073 1683 390 195 3900 1775 5675
9 2203 1903 300 150 3000 1312.5 4312.5
10 2293 2073 220 110 2200 975 3175
11 2353 2203 150 75 1500 750 2250
12 2388 2293 95 47.5 950 550 1500
13 2408 2353 55 27.5 550 375 925
14 2416 2388 28 14 280 237.5 517.5
15 2416 2408 8 4 80 137.5 217.5
16 2416 2416 0 0 0 70 70

81
 Discharge (m3/s)

S-Curve@1hr

S-Curve@2hr

Time (Hr)

c) Forecast the peak runoff that would result from storm in which the
effective rainfall totals in two consecutive 2-h periods were 20 mm and 5
mm.
Flood Hydroraph due to RF1(20mm) and RF2(5mm)

82
CHAPTER THREE: FLOOD ROUTING

3.1 General
At a river gauging station, the stage and discharge hydrographs represent the passage of
waves of river depth and stream flow during flood, respectively. As this wave moves down
the river, the shape of the wave gets modified due to various factors, such as channel
storage, resistance, lateral addition or withdrawal of flows etc. when a flood wave passes
through a reservoir, its peak is attenuated and the time base is enlarged (translated) due to the
effect of storage. Flood waves passing down a river have their peaks attenuated due to friction
if there is no lateral inflow. In both reservoir and channel conditions the time to peak is
delayed, and hence the peak discharge is translated.

Flood routing is the technique of determining the flood hydrograph at a section of a river
by utilizing the data of flood flow at one or more upstream sections. The hydrologic
analysis of problems such as flood forecasting, flood protection, reservoir and spillway
design invariably include flood routing. In these applications two broad categories of
routing can be recognized. These are:
i) Reservoir routing and
ii) Channel routing
In reservoir routing the effect of a flood wave entering a reservoir is studied. Knowing the
volume-elevation characteristics of the reservoir and the out flow elevation relationship for
spillways and other outlet structures in the reservoir; the effect of a flood wave entering the
reservoir is studied to predict the variation of reservoir elevation and out flow discharge with
time. This form of routing is essential (i) in the design of the capacity of spillways and other
reservoir outlet structures and (ii) in the location and sizing of the capacity of reservoirs to
meet specific requirements.

In channel routing the changes in the shape of a hydrograph as it travels down a channel
is studied. By considering a channel reach and an input hydrograph at the upstream end,
this form of routing aims to predict the flood hydrograph at a various sections of the
reach. Information on the flood-peak attenuation and the duration of high-water levels
obtained by channel routing is utmost importance in flood forecasting operations and flood
protection works.

A variety of flood routing methods are available and they can be broadly classified in to
two categories as: (i) hydraulic routing and (ii) hydrologic routing. Hydrologic routing
methods employ essentially the equation of continuity and a storage function, indicated as
lumped routing. Hydraulic methods, on the other hand, employ the continuity equation
together with the equation of motion of unsteady flow. The basic differential equations used
in the hydraulic routing, known as St. Venant equations afford a better description of
unsteady flow than hydrologic methods.

A flood hydrograph is modified in two ways as the storm water flows downstream.
Firstly, and obviously, the time of the peak rate of flow occurs later at downstream points.
This is known as translation. Secondly, the magnitude of the peak rate of flow is
diminished at downstream points, the shape of thehydrograph flattens out, and the volume
at the floodwater takes longer to pass a lower section. This modification of the hydrograph is
83
 called attenuation.

Translation
Q (m3/s)

Upstream
Attenuated peak

Downstream

Time

Figure 3.1: Flood translation and attenuation

84
3.2 Simple Non-storage Routing

Relationship between flood events and stages at upstream and downstream points in a single
river reach can be established by correlating known floods and stages at certain conditions.
The information could be obtained from flood marks on river banks and bridge sides.
Measurements/estimates of floods can then be related to known the level of the flood at the
upstream and downstream locations. With such curves it is possible to give satisfactory
forecasts of the downstream peak stage from an upstream peak stage measurement.
Peak H Upstream (m)

Peak H downstream (m)

Figure 3.2: Peak stage relationship

The time of travel of the hydrograph crest (peak flow) also need to be
determined to know the complete trace of modification of the wave. Curves of
upstream stage plotted against time travel to the required downstream point can be
compiled from the experience of several flood events.

85
 Peak H Upstream (m)

Peak travel time to downstream point

Figure 3.3: Flood Peak travel time

The complexities of rainfall-runoff relationships are such that these simple methods allow
only for average conditions. Flood events can have very many different causes that produce
flood hydrographs of different shapes.

The principal advantages of these simple methods are that they can be developed for stations
with only stage measurements and no rating curve, and they are quick and easy to apply
especially for warning of impending flood inundations when the required answers are
immediately given in stage heights.

3.3 Storage Routing

When a storm event occurs, an increased amount of water flows down the river and in any
one short reach of the channel there is a greater volume of water than usual contained in
temporary storage. If at the beginning of the reach the flood hydrograph is (above normal
flow) is given as I, the inflow, then during the period of the flood, T1, the channel reach
has received the flood volume given by the area under the inflow hydrograph. Similarly,
at the lower end of the reach, with an outflow hydrograph O, the flood is given by the area
under the curve. In a flood situation relative quantities may be such that lateral and
tributary inflows can be neglected, and thus by the principle of continuity, the volume of
inflow equals the volume of outflow, i.e. the flood

volumeV ∫ ∫ .

86
 The principle of hydrologic flood routings (both reservoir and channel) uses the
continuity equation in the form of “Inflow minus outflow equals rate of change of
storage”.
i.e.
Where:
=It-Ot

It = Inflow in to the reach

Ot= Outflow from the reach

87
 dS/dt =Rate of change of storage within the reach.
Alternatively, the continuity (storage) equation can be stated as in a small time
interval the difference between the total inflow volume and total outflow
volume in a reach is equal to the change in storage in that reach, i.e.,
_
I Δ t - OΔ t = Δ S (3.2)

Where, I = average inflow in time Δ t

_
O = average outflow in timeΔt
Δ S = change in storage
Δ t = routing period.
OR equation 3.2 can be rewritten as:
=1/2( + ) -1/2( + )

flow
hydrographs can be assumed to be straight line in that interval. As a rule of thumb
Δ t ≤ 1/6 of the time to peak of the inflow hydrograph is required.

The continuity equation (I-Q = dS/dt), forms basis for all the storage routing
methods. The routing problem consists of finding Q as a function of time, given I
as a function of time, and having information or making assumptions about
storage,S.

3.4 Reservoir or level pool routing

A flood wave I(t) enters a reservoir provided with an outlet such as a spillway. The
outflow is a function of the reservoir elevation only, i.e., O = O (h). The storage in the
reservoir is a function of the flow reservoir elevation, S = S(h). Further, the water level in
the reservoir changes with time, h = h(t) and hence the storage and discharge change with
time. It is required to find the variation of S, h and O with time, i.e., find S=S (t), O = O (t)
and h = h (t), given I =I (t)

I S

t t t
Reservoir

Inflow Output
I= I(t)
h

88
Figure 3.4: Storage routing (schematic)

Depending on the forms of the outlet relations for O (h) will be available.
For reservoir routing, the following data have to be known:
1. Storage volume versus elevation for the reservoir
2. Water surface elevation versus out flow and hence storage versus
outflow discharge
3. Inflow hydrograph, I= I(t); and
4. Initial values of S, I and O at time t = 0

89
The finite difference form of the continuity equation (Equation. 3.4) can be
rewritten as:

3.4

Where, (I1+I2)/2= I ; (O1+ O2)/2 = O and S2-S1 and suffixes 1 and 2

to denote the beginning and end of the time interval Δt

Rearranging Equation (3.4) to get the unknowns S2 and O2 on one side of the equation
and to adjust the O1 term to produce:

3.5
Since S is a function of O, [(S/Δt) + (O/2)] is also a specific function of O (for a
given Replacing {(S/Δt) + (O/2)} by G, for simplification, equation (3.5)
can be written:
G2 = G1 + Im –O1 or more generally

Gi+1 = Gi + Im,i - Oi (3.6)

Where:
Im = (I1 + I2)/2
To apply this method we need beside It also the G-O relation. The latter is easily
established from S-H and O-H relations, where for equal values of H, S and O
are determined; after which the proper intervalΔt the G-O relation is
established. Note that G is dependent on the chosen routing interval Δt.
The routing period, Δt, has to be chosen small enough such that the assumption of
Δt
should be less than 1/6 of the time of rise of the inflow hydrograph).
So, in short, the method consists of three steps:
1. Inspect the inflow hydrograph and select the routing interval: Δt ≤ 1/6
time to peak
2. Establish the G-O relation
3. Carry out the routing according to equation (3.6)
A useful check on the validity of any level pool routing calculation is that the
peak of the outflow hydrograph should occur at the intersection of the inflow and
out flow hydrograph on the same plot. At that point, I = O, so ds/dt = 0, i.e.
storage is a maximum and therefore O is a maximum. Therefore, the temporary
storage is depleted.

90
 Stored
I
Q

O
Released

Figure 3.5: Storage routing (schematic)

Table 3.1: Tabular computation of level pool routing

{(Ii + Ij )} - Oi

Example 2.1 (Reservoir routing)

91
3.5 Channel routing
In reservoir routing presented in the previous section, the storage was a unique function of
the outflow discharge, S=f(O). However in channel routing the storage is a function of
both outflow and inflow discharges and hence a different routing method is needed. The flow
in a river during a flood belongs to the category of gradually varied unsteady flow.
For a river reach where the water surface cannot be assumed horizontal to the river bottom
during the passage of a flood wave, the storage in the reach may be split up in two parts:
(i) prism storage and (ii) wedge storage
Prism Storage is the volume that would exist if uniform flow occurred at the downstream
depth, i.e. the volume formed by an imaginary plane parallel to the channel bottom drawn at
a direct function of the stage at the downstream end of the reach. The surface is taken
parallel to the river bottom ignoring the variation in the surface in the reach relative to the
bottom. Both this storage and the outflow can be described as a single function of the
downstream water level and the storage is a single function of the out flow alone.
Wedge Storage is the wedge-like volume formed b/n the actual water surface profile and the
top surface of the prism storage. It exists because the inflow, I, differs from O (out flow)
and so may be assumed to be a function of the difference between inflow and outflow, (I-
O).
O

(I-O)

(I-O)

+
I-
T
  ( I  O ) dt
O S
0

-
S
0 t

Figure 3.6: Determining storage in a river reach

92
 At a fixed depth at a downstream section of river reach, prism storage is
constant while the wedge storage changes from a positive value at the
advancing flood wave to a negative value during a receding flood.

The total storage in the channel reach can be generally represented by:
S = f1(O)+f2(I-O) (3.7)
And this can then be expressed as:
S = K (x Im + (1-x)Om) (3.8)
Where K and x are coefficients and m is a constant exponent. It has been found
that the value of m varies from 0.6 for rectangular channels to value of about 1.0
for natural channels.

3.5.1 Muskingum Method of Routing

Using m =1 for natural channels, equation (2.8), reduces to a linear relationship for
S in terms of I and Q as
S= K (x I+ (1-x)O (3.9)

This relationship is known as the Muskingum Equation. In this the parameter x

is known as weighing factor and take a value between 0 and 0.5. When x=0,
obviously the storage is a function of discharge only and equation (3.9) reduces to:
S = KQ (3.10)

Such storage is known as linear storage or linear reservoir. When x= 0.5 both the
inflow and out flow are equally important in determining the storage.

The coefficient K is known as storage-time constant and has dimensions of time.

K is approximately equal to the time of travel of a flood wave through the channel
reach.

As before, writing the continuity equation in finite difference form, we can

write S2 - S1 = {(I1+I2 t}/2 - {(O1+O2 (3.11)

For a given channel reach by selecting a routing interval and using the
Muskingum equation, the change in storage can be determined.
S1 = K(xI1 + (1-x) O1) (3.12)
S2 = K(xI2 + (1-x) O2) (3.13)
Substituting equations (3.12) and (3.13) in equation (3.11) and after
rearrangements gives:
O2 = c1I1 +c2I2 +c3O1 and more generally as

93
 Note that and thus when C1 and C2 have been found C3=1-C1-C2. Thus
the outflow at the end of a time step is the weighted sum of the starting inflow
and outflow and the ending inflow. It has been found that best results will be
obtained when routing interval should be so chosen that K> t>2kx. t < 2kx,
the coefficient C2 will be negative.

3.5.2Application of the Muskingum Method:

In order to use equation (2.14) for Oi+1, it is necessary to know K and x for
calculating the coefficients, C. Using recorded hydrographs of a flood at the
beginning and end of the river reach, trial values of x are taken, and for each
trial the weighted flows in the reach, [xI+(1-x)O], are plotted against the actual
storages determined from the inflow and out flow hydrographs as indicated in
the following figure.
xI+(1-x)Q

xI+(1-x)Q

xI+(1-x)Q

S S S

Figure 3.7: Trial plots for Muskingum x values

When the looping plots of the weighted discharge against storages have been
narrowed down so that the values for the rising stage and the falling stage for a
particular value of x merge together to form the best approximation to a straight
line, then that x value is used, and the slope of the straight line gives the

94
required value of K. for natural channels, the best plot is often curved, making a
straight line slope difficult to estimate.

Example 3.2 (Channel routing)

2.12 Hydraulic Routing

95
 Tutorial Problem Set 2 (Taken from Chapter 16 – Flood Routing, Elisabeth
Shaw) For G-2HA&B

1. The Muskingum constants, K and x, are estimated for a given river reach to be
12 hr and 0.2. Assuming an initial steady flow, determine the peak discharge at the
downstream end of the reach for the inflow hydrograph shown in the table 1 below.
Table 1

Time from start

Of rise (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42
Inflow (m3s-1) 25.0 32.5 58.0 65.0 59.4 49.5 42.5 35.0

2. The crest of a 20 m wide reservoir spillway consists of two 10 m wide gates,

one of which is kept 0.5m lower than the other. The flow Q (m3s-1), over each gate
is given by Q = Cdbh3/2 where b (m) is the gate width and h (m) is the head on the
gates. Position, can be taken as 2.0 (m1/2s-1) for each gate. Initial flows into and out of
the 1 ha reservoir are equal at 10 m3s-1). The inflow into the reservoir is to be
increased steadily to 20 m3s-1 over 1h. Find the outflow at the end of that time,
assuming the gate positions remain unchanged ( 1 ha = 104m2 )

3. A lake, having steep banks and a surface area of 6 km2, discharges into a steep
channel which is approximately rectangular in section, with a width of 50 m. Initially,
conditions are steady with a flow of 170 m3s-1 passing through the lake; then a
flood comes down the river feeding the lake, giving rise to the inflow hydrograph
shown in table 2. Compute the outflow hydrograph and plot it on the same graph with
the inflow hydrograph. Note the difference in magnitude and time between the two
peaks. (Critical flow exists at the lake outlet, g = 9.81 ms-1.)
Table 2

Time from start (hr) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Inflow (m3s-1) 170 230 340 290 220 180 170

4. Discharge measurements at two gauging stations for a flood flow on the

96
Macquarie River in Australia are given in Table 3. It is assumed that there are no
tributaries to the river between the upstream stations B and the downstream
station W. Apply the Muskingum method of flood routing to derive a model
for

97
 calculating sequential outflows at the downstream end of the reach from measured
flows at B. From the given inflows, derive the computed peak outflow discharge
and its time of arrival at W.
Table 3

Time(h) 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
3 -1
B(m s ) 595 1699 3837 5636 4305 3059 2271
3 -1
W(m s ) 130 496 1189 2209 3087 3823 3781
Time (h) 28 32 36 40 44 48
3 -1
B (m s ) 1756 1359 1062 830 637 504
3 -1
W (m s ) 3285 2393 1841 1416 1147 850

5. Analysis of past records for a certain river reach yielded the values of
Muskingum coefficient x = 0.22 and K = 1.5 days. Route the flood shown in Table
4 through the reach. The inflow continues at 14.2 m3s-1 after day 12.

Table 4
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6
Inflow (m3s-1) 14.2 76.7 129.4 166.8 171.9 113.8
Day 7 8 9 10 11 12
3 -1
Inflow( m s ) 187.8 264.2 152.1 75.0 45.0 14.2

98
CHAPTER FOUR: FREQUENCY ANALYSIS (PROBABILITY IN HYDROLOGY)

4.1General
Water resource systems must be planned for future events for which no exact time of
occurrence can be forecasted. Hence, the hydrologist must give a statement of the
probability of the stream flows (or other hydrologic factors) will equal or exceed (or be
less than) a specified value. These probabilities are important to the economic and social
evaluation of a project. In most cases, absolute control of the floods or droughts is
impossible. Planning to control a flood of a specific probability recognizes that a project
will be overtaxed occasionally and damages will be incurred. However, repair of the
damages should be less costly in the long run than building initially to protect against the
worst possible event. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce the
frequency of flooding, and hence the resulting damages. If the socio-economic analysis is
to be correct, the probability of flooding must be eliminated accurately. For major
projects, the failure of which seriously threatens human life, a more extreme event, the
probable maximum flood, has become the standard for designing the spillway.

This chapter deals with techniques for defining probability from a given set of data and
with special methods employed for determining design flood for major hydraulic
structures.

Frequency analysis is the hydrologic term used to describe the probability of occurrence
of a particular hydrologic event (e.g. rainfall, flood, drought, etc.). Therefore, basic
knowledge about probability (e.g. distribution functions) and statistics (e.g. measure of
location, measure of spread, measure of skewness, etc) is essential. Frequency analysis
usually requires recorded hydrological data.

Hydrological data are recorded either as a continuous record (e.g. water level or stage,
rainfall, etc.) or in discrete series form (e.g. mean daily/monthly/annual flows or rainfall,
annual series, partial series, etc.).

For planning and designing of water resources development projects, the important
parameters are river discharges and related questions on the frequency & duration of
normal flows (e.g. for hydropower production or for water availability) and extreme flows
(floods and droughts).

4.2Flow Frequency
The question a planner or decision maker would ask a hydrologist concerning normal
flows is the length of time (duration) that a certain river flow is expected to be exceeded.
An answer to this question is provided by the flow duration curve (FDC) that is the
relationship between any given discharge and the percentage of time that the discharge is
exceeded. Taking the n-years of flow records from a river gauging stations, there are
365(6)n daily mean discharges. The discharge is compiled, starting with the highest
99
values. If N number of data points are used for analysis, the plotting position of any
discharge (or class value) Q is:

Pp = m / (N+1) (4.1)

Where, m = is the order number of the discharge (or class value)

Pp = percentage probability of the flow magnitude being equalled or exceeded.

100
The FDC only applies for the period for which it was derived. If this is a long
period, say more than 10 to 20 years, the FDC may be regarded as a
probability curve or flow frequency curve, which may be used to estimate the
percentage of time that a specified discharge will be equalled or exceeded in
the future. An example is demonstrated in table 4.1 below.

Table 4.1: Flow records

Discharge %Exceeded or
(m3/s) Descending Order Rank Equaled (m /
(N+1))
(a) (b) (c) (d)
106.70 1200 1 8.33%
107.10 964.7 2 16.67%
148.20 497 3 25.00%
497.00 338.6 4 33.33%
1200.00 177.6 5 41.67%
964.70 148.2 6 50.00%
338.60 142.7 7 58.33%
177.60 141 8 66.67%
141.00 141 9 75.00%
141.00 126.6 10 83.33%
142.70 107.1 11 91.67%
126.60 106.7 12 100.00%

Figure 4.1: Flow Duration Curve

The shape of the flow-duration curve gives a good indication of a catchment‟s
101
characteristics response to its average rainfall history. An initially steeply sloped
curve results from a very variable discharge, usually from small catchments with
little storage where the stream flow reflects directly the rainfall pattern. Flow
duration curves that have very flat slope indicate little variation in flow
regime, the resultant of the damping effects of large storages.

102
4.3 Flood Probability

4.3.1Selection of Data
If probability analysis is to provide reliable answers, it must start with a data series that is
relevant, adequate, and accurate. Relevance implies that the data must deal with the problem.
Most flood studies are concerned with peak flows, and the data series will consist of selected
observed peaks. However, if the problem is duration of flooding, e.g., for what periods of
time a highway adjacent to a stream is likely to be flooded, the data series should represent
duration of flows in excess of some critical value. If the problem is one of interior
drainage of a leveed area, the data required may consist of those flood volumes
occurring when the main river is too high to permit gravity drainage.

Adequacy refers primarily to length of record, but sparisty of data collecting stations is often
a problem. The observed record is merely a sample of the total population of floods that
have occurred and may occur again. If the sample is too small, the probabilities derived
cannot be expected to be reliable. Available stream flow records are too short to provide
an answer to the question: How long must a record be to define flood probabilities within
acceptable tolerances?

Accuracy refers primarily to the problem of homogeneity. Most flow records are satisfactory
in terms of intrinsic accuracy, and if they are not, there is little that can be done with them.
If the reported flows are unreliable, they are not a satisfactory basis for frequency analysis.
Even though reported flows are accurate, they may be unsuitable for probability analysis if
changes in the catchment have caused a change in the hydrologic characteristics, i.e., if the
record is not internally homogenous. Dams, levees, diversions, urbanization, and other
land use changes may introduce inconsistencies. Such records should be adjusted before
use to current conditions or to natural conditions.
There are two data series of floods:
(i) The annual series, and
(ii) The partial duration series.

The annual series constitutes the data series that the values of the single maximum
daily/monthly/annually discharge in each year of record so that the number of data values
equals the record length in years. For statistical purposes, it is necessary to ensure that the
selected peak discharges are independent of one another. This data series is necessary if the
analysis is concerned with probability less than 0.5. However as the interest are limited to
relatively rare events, the analysis could have been carried out for a partial duration series to
have more frequent events.
.
The partial duration series constitutes the data series with those values that exceed some
arbitrary level. All the peaks above a selected level of discharge (a threshold) are included
in the series and hence the series is often called the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) series.
There are generally more data values for analysis in this series than in the annual series, but
there is more chance of the peaks being related and the assumption of true independence is
less valid.

103
4.3.2 Plotting Positions
Probability analysis seeks to define the flood flow with probability of p being equaled or
exceed in any year. Return period Tr is often used in lieu of probability to describe a
design flood. Return period and probability are reciprocals, i.e,

p = 1/Tr (4.2)
To plot a series of peak flows as a cumulative frequency curves it is necessary to decide
on a probability or return period to associate with each peak. There are various formulas
for defining this value as shown in table 4.2.

The probability of occurrence of the event r times in n successive years can be obtained
from:

4.3
(4.3)

Where q = 1 - P.

Table 4.2 Plotting-position formulae

Method P
California m/N
Hazen (m - 0.5) / N
Weibull m / (N+1)
Chegodayev (m - 0.3) / (N+0.4)
Gringorten (m - 3/8) / (N + 1/4)

Consider, for example, a list of flood magnitudes of a river arranged in

descending order as shown in Table 4.3. The length of record is 50 years.

Table 4.3: Calculation of Frequency T

Order No. m Flood magnitude Q (m3/s) T in years = 51/m

1 160 51.00
2 135 25.50
3 128 17.00
4 116 12.75
. . .
. . .
. . .
49 65 1.04
50 63 1.02

104
The last column shows the return period T of various flood magnitude, Q. A
plot of Q Vs T yields the probability distribution. For small return periods (i.e.
for interpolation) or where limited extrapolation is required, a simple best-
fitting curve through plotted points can be used as the probability distribution.
A logarithmic scale for T is often advantageous. However, when larger
extrapolations of T are involved, theoretical probability distributions (e.g.
Gumbel extreme-value, Log- Pearson Type III, and log normal distributions)
have to be used. In frequency analysis of floods the usual problem is to predict
extreme flood events. Towards this, specific extreme-value distributions are
assumed and the required statistical parameters calculated from the available
data. Using these flood magnitude for a specific return period is estimated.

105
4.3.3 Theoretical Distributions of Floods
Statistical distributions are usually demonstrated by use of samples numbering in the
thousands. No such samples are available for stream flow and it is not possible to state with
certainty that a specific distribution applies to flood peaks. Numerous distributions have been
suggested on the basis of their ability to “fit” the plotted data from streams.

Chow has shown that most frequency-distribution functions applicable in hydrologic studies
can be expressed by the following equation known as the general equation of hydrologic
frequency analysis:

(4.4)

Where xT = value of the variate X of a random hydrologic series with a return period T, =
mean of the variate, σ = standard deviation of the variate, K =
frequency factor which depends upon the return period, T and the assumed frequency
distribution.

4.3.4 Extreme-Value Type I Distribution (Gumbel’s Method)

This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel (1941) and is commonly
known as Gumbel's distribution. It is one of the most widely used probability-
distribution functions for extreme values in hydrologic and meteorological studies for
prediction of flood peaks, maximum rainfalls, and maximum wind speed, etc. Therefore,
this extreme value theory of Gumbel is only applicable to annual extremes. In contrast to
the previous example, in the Gumbel method the data are ranked in ascending order and
it makes use of the probability of non-exceedence q=1-P (the probability that the annual
maximum flow is less than a certain magnitude). The return period T is therefore given
by T = 1 / P = 1 / (1-q).

Gumbel makes use of a reduced variate y as a function of q, which allows the plotting of
the distribution as a linear function between y and X (the maximum flow in this case).
Gumbel also defined a flood as the largest of the 365 daily flows and the annual series of
flood flows constitute a series of largest values of flow. According to his theory of
extreme events, the probability of occurrence of an event equal to or larger than a value x0
is

106
 Noting that the return period T = 1/P and designating; yT = the value of y,
commonly called the reduced variate, for a given T

4.10

4.3.5 Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use

Equation (4.11) giving the variate X with the return period T is used as

4.13

∑
=√

K = frequency factor expressed as K

4.14

In which yT = reduced variate, a function of T and is given by

107
108
yn = reduced mean, a function of sample size N and is given in Table 4.4; for N →∞
y n → 0.577.

Sn = reduced standard deviation, a function of sample size N and is given in Table 4.5; for
N →∞ , Sn → 1.2825.

These equations are used under the following procedure to estimate the flood magnitude
corresponding to a given return period based on annual flood series.
1. Assemble the discharge data and note the sample size N. Here the
annual flood value is the variate X. Find x and n-1 for the given data.
2. Using Tables 4.4 and 4.5 determine yn and Sn appropriate to given N
3. Find yT for a given T by Eq.(4.15).
4. Find K by Eq.(4.14).
5. Determine the required xT by Eq.(4.13).

To verify whether the given data follow the assumed Gumbel's distribution, the following
procedure may be adopted. The value of xT for some return periods T<N are calculated
by using Gumbel's formula and plotted as xT Vs T on a convenient paper such as a semi-
log, log-log or Gumbel probability paper. The use of Gumbel probability paper results in
a straight line for xT Vs T plot. Gumbel's distribution has the property which gives T =
2.33 years for the average of the annual series when N is very large. Thus the value of a
flood with T = 2.33 years is called the mean annual flood. In graphical plots this gives a
mandatory point through which the line showing variation of xT with T must pass. For
the given data, values of return periods (plotting positions) for various recorded values, x
of the variate are obtained by the relation T = (N+1)/m and plotted on the graph described
above. A good fit of observed data with the theoretical variation line indicates the
applicability of Gumbel's distribution to the given data series. By extrapolation of the
straight-line xT Vs T, values of xT> N can be determined easily.

The Gumbel (or extreme-value) probability paper is a paper that consists of an abscissa
specially marked for various convenient values of the return period T (or corresponding
reduced variate yT in arithmetic scale). The ordinate of a Gumbel paper represent xT
(flood discharge, maximum rainfall depth, etc.), which may have either arithmetic scale or
logarithmic scale.

109
Table 4.4: Reduced mean y n in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N = sample size

N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600

110
Table 4.5: Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N

= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065

4.3.6 Confidence Limits for the fitted data

Since the value of the variate for a given return period, x T determined by Gumbel's method
can have errors due to the limited sample data used; an estimate of the confidence limits of
the estimate is desirable. The confidence interval indicates the limits about the calculated
value between which the true value can be said to lie with a specific probability based on
sampling errors only.

For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of the variate xT is bound by value x1
and x2 given by
x1/2 = xT± f (c) Se (4.16)

Where f(c) = function of the confidence probability c determined by using the table of
normal variate as

C in per cent 50 68 80 90 95 99
f(c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.58

n
Se = probable error = b (4.16a)
N

b= 1  1.3K  1.1K 2
K = frequency factor given by Eq.(4.14)

n-1 = standard deviation of the sample

N = sample size

It is seen that for a given sample and T, 80% confidence limits are twice as large as the
50% limits and 95% limits are thrice as large as 50% limits.

In addition to the analysis of maximum extreme events, there also is a need to analyze
minimum extreme events; e.g. the occurrence of droughts. The probability distribution of
Gumbel, similarly to the Gaussian probability distribution, does not have a lower limit;
meaning that negative values of events may occur. As rainfall or river flows do have a lower
limit of zero, neither the Gumbel nor Gaussian distribution is an appropriate tool to analyze
111
minimum values. Because the logarithmic function has a lower limit of zero, it is often
useful to first transform the series to its logarithmic value before applying the

112
theory. Appropriate tools for analyzing minimum flows or rainfall amounts are the Log-
Normal, Log-Gumbel, or Log-Pearson distributions.

4.3.7 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

This distribution is widely used in USA. In this distribution the variate is first transformed
into logarithmic form (base 10) and the transformed data is then analysed. If X is the variate
of a random hydrologic series, then the series of Z variates where
Z = log x (4.18)
are first obtained. For this z series, for any recurrence interval T, equation (4.4) gives

ZT= + Kz +σz 4.19

Where Kz = a frequency factor which is a function of recurrence interval T and

the coefficient of skew Cs,
z  z  2

σz = standard deviation of the Z variate sample = N 1 (4.19a)

And Cs = Coefficinet of skew of variate Z= 4.19b

σ

z = mean of the z values

N = sample size = number of years of record
The variations of Kz = f(Cs, T) is given in Table 4.6. After finding zT by Eq.(4.19),
the corresponding value of xT is obtained by Eq.(4.18) as xT = antilog(zT) (4.20)

Sometimes, the coefficient of skew Cs, is adjusted to account for the size of the
sample by using the following relation proposed by Hazen (1930)

Cs( )
4.21

Cˆ s =

Where
Cˆ s = adjusted coefficient of skew. However the standard procedure for
113
use of Log-Pearson Type III distribution adopted by U.S. Water Resources
Council does not include this adjustment for skew.
When the skew is zero, i.e. Cs = 0, the Log-Pearson Type III distribution reduces
to Log-normal distribution. The Log-normal distribution plots as a straight
line on logarithmic probability paper.

Table 4.6: Kz = F(Cs, T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

Coef. Return Period T in years
of 2 10 25 50 100 200 1000
skew,
Cs
3.0 -0.396 1.180 2.278 3.152 4.051 4.970 7.250
2.5 -0.360 1.250 2.262 3.048 3.845 4.652 6.600
2.2 -0.330 1.284 2.240 2.970 3.705 4.444 6.200
2.0 -0.307 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605 4.298 5.910
1.8 -0.282 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 4.147 5.660
1.6 -0.254 1.329 2.163 2.780 3.388 3.990 5.390
1.4 -0.225 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271 3.828 5.110
1.2 -0.195 1.340 2.087 2.626 3.149 3.661 4.820

114
Table 4.6: (Cont‟d)
Coef. Return Period T in years
of 2 10 25 50 100 200 1000
skew,
Cs
1.0 -0.164 1.340 2.043 2.542 3.022 3.489 4.540
0.9 -0.148 1.339 2.018 2.498 2.957 3.401 4.395
0.8 -0.132 1.336 1.998 2.453 2.891 3.312 4.250
0.7 -0.116 1.333 1.967 2.407 2.824 3.223 4.105
0.6 -0.099 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 3.132 3.960
0.5 -0.083 1.323 1.910 2.311 2.686 3.041 3.815
0.4 -0.066 1.317 1.880 2.261 2.615 2.949 3.670
0.3 -0.050 1.309 1.849 2.211 2.544 2.856 3.525
0.2 -0.033 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472 2.763 3.380
0.1 -0.017 1.292 1.785 2.107 2.400 2.670 3.235
0.0 0.000 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326 2.576 3.090
-0.1 0.017 1.270 1.716 2.000 2.252 2.482 2.950
-0.2 0.033 1.258 1.680 1.945 2.178 2.388 2.810
-0.3 0.050 1.245 1.643 1.890 2.104 2.294 2.675
-0.4 0.066 1.231 1.606 1.834 2.029 2.201 2.540
-0.5 0.083 1.216 1.567 1.777 1.955 2.108 2.400
-0.6 0.099 1.200 1.528 1.720 1.880 2.016 2.275
-0.7 0.116 1.183 1.488 1.663 1.806 1.926 2.150
-0.8 0.132 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733 1.837 2.035
-0.9 0.148 1.147 1.407 1.549 1.660 1.749 1.910
-1.0 0.164 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588 1.664 1.880
-1.4 0.225 1.041 1.198 1.270 1.318 1.351 1.465
-1.8 0.282 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087 1.097 1.130
-2.2 0.330 0.844 0.888 0.900 0.905 0.907 0.910
-3.0 0.396 0.660 0.666 0.666 0.667 0.667 0.668

The flood-frequency analysis described above is a direct means of estimating

the desired flood based upon the available flood-flow data of the catchment.
The results of the frequency analysis depend upon the length of data. The
minimum number of years of record required to obtain satisfactory estimates
depends upon the variability of data and hence on the physical and
climatological characteristics of the basin. Generally a minimum of 30 years of
data is considered as essential. Smaller lengths of records are also used when it
is unavoidable. However, frequency analysis should not be adopted if the length
of records is less than 10 years.

Flood-frequency studies are most reliable in climates that are uniform from year
to year. In such cases a relatively short record gives a reliable picture of the
frequency distribution. With increasing lengths of flood records, it affords a
viable alternative method of flood-flow estimation in most cases.

A final remark of caution should be made regarding to frequency analysis.

None of the frequency distribution functions have a real physical background.
The only information having physical meaning are the measurements
themselves. Extrapolation beyond the period of observation is dangerous. It
requires a good engineer to judge the value of extrapolated events of high
return periods. A good impression of the relativity of frequency analysis can be

115
acquired through the comparison of result obtained from different statistical
methods. Generally they differ considerably.

116
Example 4.1
Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for the period 1951 to 1977 is given
below. Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-value distribution fit the recorded values.
Estimate the flood discharge with return period of (i) 100 years and (ii) 150 years by
graphical extrapolation.

Solutions: The flood discharge values are arranged in descending order and the plotting
position return period TP for each discharge is obtained as
Tp = (N+1)/m= 28/m

Where m = order number. The discharge magnitude

Q can be plotted against the corresponding TP on a Gumbel extreme probability paper.

Year Max. Year Max. flood (m3/s) Year Max. flood (m3/s)
floo
3
d (m /s)
1951 2947 1960 4798 1969 6599
1952 3521 1961 4290 1970 3700
1953 2399 1962 4652 1971 4175
1954 4124 1963 5050 1972 2988
1955 3496 1964 6900 1973 2709
1956 2947 1965 4366 1974 3873
1957 5060 1966 3380 1975 4593
1958 4903 1967 7826 1976 6761
1959 3757 1968 3320 1977 1971
The statistics x and σn-1 for the series are next calculated and are shown in table below.

Order Flood Order Flood

number discharge TP number discharge TP
M x (m3/s) (years) M x (m3/s) (years)
1 7826 28.00 15 3873 1.87
2 6900 14.00 16 3757 1.75
3 6761 9.33 17 3700 1.65
4 6599 7.00 18 3521 1.56
5 5060 5.60 19 3496 1.47
6 5050 4.67 20 3380 1.40
7 4903 4.00 21 3320 1.33
8 4798 3.50 22 2988 1.27
9 4652 3.11 23 2947 -
10 4593 2.80 24 2947 1.17
11 4366 2.55 25 2709 1.12
12 4290 2.33 26 2399 1.08
13 4175 2.15 27 1971 1.04
14 4124 2.00
N = 27 years, x = 4263 m3/s, σn-1 = 1432.6 m3/s

Using these the discharge xT for some chosen return interval is calculated by using Gumbel's

117
formulae [Eqs.(4.15), (4.14) and (4.13)]. From Tables 4.4 and 4.5, for N = 27, yn = 0.5332
and Sn = 1.1004.

118
Choosing T = 10 years, by Eq.(4.15), yT = -[ln(ln(10/9))] = 2.25037 and
K = (2.25307-0.5332)/1.1004 = 1.56 and xT = 4263 + (1.56*1432.6) = 6499m3/s.
Similarly, values of xT are calculated for two more T values as shown below.

T XT[obtained by Eq.(3.13)]
(Years) (m3/s)
5.0 5522
10.0 6499
20.0 7436

When these values areplotted on Gumbel probability paper, it is seen that these points
lie on a straight line according to the property of the Gumbel's extreme probability paper.
Then by extrapolation of the theoretical xT Vs T relationship, from this plot, at T = 100
years, xT = 9600m3/s and at T = 150 years, xT = 10700m3/s. [By using Eq. (4.13) to
(4.15), x100 = 9558m3/s and x150
= 10088m3/s.]

Example 4.2:
Data covering a period of 92 years for a certain river yielded the mean and standard deviation
of the annual flood series as 6437 and 2951 m3/s respectively. Using Gumbel's method,
estimate the flood discharge with a return period of 500 years. What are the (a) 95% and
(b) 80% confidence limits for this estimate?
Solution: From Table 4.4 and 4.5 for N = 92 years, yn = 0.5589, and Sn = 1.2020. Then
y500 = -[ln((ln(500/499))] = 6.21361
K500 = (6.21361 - 0.5589)/1.2020 = 4.7044, Hence, x500 =
6437 + 4.7044*2951 = 20320m3/s.
From Eq.(6.16a), b= 1  1.3(4.7044)  1.1(4.7044)2 = 5.61
2951
Se= probable error = 5.61 * = 1726
92

(a) For the 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 and by Eq.(4.16) x1/2 =
3 3
20320xT 1 = 23703m /s and x2 = 16937m /s.
Thus the estimated discharge of 20320m3/s has a 95% probability of lying
between 23700 and 16940m3/s.

(b) For 80% confidence probability, f(c) = 1.282 and by Eq.(4.16) x1/2 =
20320xT (1.282*1726), which results in x1 = 22533m3/s and x2 =
18107m /s. Thus the estimated discharge of 20320 m3/s has an 80% probability
3

of lying between 22533 and 18107m3/s.

For the data of Example 4.2, the values of xT for different values of T are
calculated and can be shown plotted on a Gumbel probability paper.

119
 Fitted Line

95%

80%
95%

80%

T (Return Period), Yrs

Figure 4.2: Confidence bands for Gumbel‟s distribution: Example 4.2.

Example 4.3: For the annual flood series data given in Example 3.1, estimate
the flood discharge for a return period of (a) 100 years (b) 200 years and (c)
1000 years by using Log-Pearson Type III distribution.
Solution: The variate z = log x is first calculated for all the discharges in table
below. Then the statistics z z and Cs are calculated from table 4.6 to obtain
σz = 0.1427 27 * 0.0030
Cs =
26)(25)(0.1427)3

z = 3.6071 Cs = 0.043

The flood discharge for a given T is calculated as below. Here, values of Kz for
given T and Cs = 0.043 are read from table 4.6.

z =3.6071, σz = 0.1427, Cs = 0.043

T Kz
(years) (from table 3.5) ZT = z + Kz z XT = antilog zT
Kz z
(for Cs = 0.043) (m3/s)
100 2.358 0.3365 3.9436 8782
200 2.616 0.3733 3.9804 9559
1000 3.152 0.4498 4.0569 11400

120
Year Flood x( /s) z = log x Year Flood x(m3/s) z = log x
1951 2947 3.4694 1965 4366 3.6401
1952 3521 3.5467 1966 3380 3.5289
1953 2399 3.3800 1967 7826 3.8935
1954 4124 3.6153 1968 3320 3.5211
1955 3496 3.5436 1969 6599 3.8195
1956 2947 3.4694 1970 3700 3.5682
1957 5060 3.7042 1971 4175 3.6207

121
 Year Flood x( /s) z = log x Year Flood x(m3/s) z = log x
1958 4903 3.6905 1972 2988 3.4754
1959 3751 3.5748 1973 2709 3.4328
1960 4798 3.6811 1974 3873 3.5880
1961 4290 3.6325 1975 4593 3.6621
1962 4652 3.6676 1976 6761 3.8300
1963 5050 3.7033 1977 1971 3.2947
1964 6900 3.8388

4.4 Regional Frequency Analysis

A regional frequency analysis usually involves a regression analysis of gauged watersheds
within the general region. Through this powerful technique, sufficiently reliable equations
can be derived for peak flow of varying frequency given quantifiable physical basin
characteristics and rainfall intensity for a specific duration. Once these equations are
developed, they can then be applied to ungauged basins within the same region.

A regional analysis usually consists of the following steps:

1. Select components of interest, such as mean and peak flows.

2. Select definable basin characteristics of gauged watershed: drainage area,
length, slope, etc.
3. Derive prediction equations with single-or multiple-linear regression
analysis.
4. Map and explain the residuals (differences between computed and observed
values) that constitute “unexplained variances” in statistical analysis on a
regional basis.

The equation can then be used in ungauged areas within the same region and
for data of similar magnitude to that used in the development process.

4.5 Low Flow Analysis

Characterization of the magnitude, frequency, and duration of low stream flows and droughts
is vital for assessing the reliability of flows for all in-stream and withdrawal uses and for
defining resource shortages and drought.

4.5.1 Definitions and Basic Concepts

Low Stream flows

The objective of low-flow analysis is to estimate the frequency or probability with which
stream flow in a given reach will be less than various levels. Thus the flow-duration
curve; is an important tool of low-flow analysis; from it one can readily determine the flow
associated with any exceedence or non-exceedence probability. Most of the time, the flow
exceeded 95% of the time, q95, is a useful index of water availability that is often used for
design purposes.

For purposes of statistical analysis, low flows are defined as annual minimum flows averaged
over consecutive-day periods of varying length. The most commonly used averaging period
122
is d = 7days, but analyses are often carried out for d = 1,3, 15, 30, 60, 90 and 180 days
as well. Low-flow quantile values are cited as "dQp," where p is now the annual non-
exceedence probability (in
percent) for the flow averaged over d-days. The 7-day average flow that has an annual non-
exceedence probability of 0.10 (a recurrence interval of 10 yr), called "7QI0," is
commonly used as a low-flow design value. the “7Q10” value is interpreted as follows:

In any year there is a 10% probability that the lowest 7-consecutive-day average flow will be
less than the 7QIO value.

Droughts
Droughts are extended severe dry periods. To qualify as a drought, a dry period must have
duration of at least a few months and be a significant departure from normal. Drought must be
expected as part of the natural climate, even in the absence of any long term climate change.
However, “permanent” droughts due to natural climate shifts do occur, and appear to have
been responsible for large scale migrations and declines of civilizations through human
history. The possibility of regional droughts associated with climatic shifts due to warming
cannot be excluded.
As shown in Figure 3.3, droughts begin with a deficit in precipitation that is unusually
extreme and prolonged relative to the usual climatic conditions (meteorological drought).
This is often, but not always, accompanied by unusually high temperatures, high winds, low
humidity, and high solar radiation that result in increased evapotranspiration.

These conditions commonly produce extended periods of unusually low soil moisture, which
affect agriculture and natural plant growth and the moisture of forest floor (Agricultural
drought). As the precipitation deficit continues, stream discharge, lake, wetland, and
reservoir levels, and water-table decline to unusually low levels (Hydrological drought).
When precipitation returns to more normal values, drought recovery follows the same
sequence: meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological.
Meteorological drought is usually characterized as a precipitation deficit.

123
4.5.2 Low flow frequency analysis
As noted earlier, the objective of low flow frequency analysis is to estimate quantiles of
annual d-day-average minimum flows. As with floods, such estimates are usually
required for reaches without long-term stream flow records. These estimates are first
developed by analyzing low flows at gauging stations.

Low flow analysis at gauging stations:

For gauged reach, low flow analysis involves development of a time series of annual d-day
low flows, where d is the averaging period. As shown in the table below, the analysis begins
with a time series of average daily flows for each year. Then the overlapping d-day
averages are computed for the d values of interest. For each value of d, this creates 365-(d-1)
values of consecutive d-day averages for each year. The smallest of these values is then
selected to produce an annual time series of minimum d-day flows. It is this time series
that is then subjected to frequency analysis to estimate the quantiles of the annual d-day
flows.

Example 4.4: Computation of d-consecutive Day averages for low flow analysis. Values in
bold are minimum for the period shown

124
 1-Day 3-Day 7-Day 15-Day
Day Average Average Average Average
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
1 5.75
2 5.55 5.59
3 5.47 5.45
4 5.32 5.34 5.35
5 5.24 5.24 5.24
6 5.15 5.13 5.29
7 4.98 5.04 5.52
8 4.98 5.29 5.70 5.60
9 5.89 5.97 5.78 5.58
10 7.05 6.52 5.82 5.63
11 6.63 6.48 5.87 5.73
12 5.78 5.95 5.93 5.77
13 5.44 5.51 5.87 5.78
14 5.32 5.39 5.76 5.77
15 5.41 5.41 5.81 5.76
16 5.49 5.71 5.85 5.75
17 6.23 6.25 5.83 5.67
18 7.02 6.42 5.78 5.54
19 6.00 6.12 5.70 5.50
20 5.32 5.43 5.61 5.52
21 4.96 5.04 5.39 5.53
22 4.84 4.89 5.12 6.08
23 4.87 4.81 5.13 6.79
24 4.73 4.91 5.22
25 5.13 5.30 5.31
26 6.03 5.71 6.55
27 5.97 5.86 8.15
28 5.58 8.37
29 13.56 11.73
30 16.06

Low flow analysis at ungauged stations:

As with floods, estimates of low flow quantiles are usually required for stream
reaches where there are no long-term gauging station records. There are two basic
approaches to developing such estimates:

1. Relate dQp values to drainage-basins characteristics via regression analysis.

2. During the low flow season, make a number of spot measurements of
discharge at the ungauged stream reach where the dQp estimate is needed.
Then relate those flows to concurrent flows at a nearby gauging station
using
qu = a + bqg (4.22)
where:
qu is the flow at the ungauged site, qg is the concurrent flow at the gauged site, and
a and b are estimated via regression anlysis. Then estimate the dQp at the
ungauged site, dQpu, as:
dQpu = a + b.dQg (4.23)
where:
dQqg is the dQp value established by frequency analysis at the gauged site. In order to
125
minimize errors when using this procedure, each pair of flows used to
establish equation (4.22) should be from a separate hydrograph recession, the r2 value for
the relation of equation (4.22) should be at least 0.70 and the two basins should be similar in
size, geology, topography, and climate

126
4.5.3 Drought analysis
The objective of drought analysis is to characterize the magnitude, duration, and severity of
meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological drought in a region of interest. The analysis
process can be structured in terms of five questions:
1.What type of drought of interest?
2.What averaging period will be used?
3.How will “drought” be quantitatively defined?
4.What are the magnitude-frequency relations of drought characteristics?
5. How are regional aspects of drought addressed?
Drought type:
As noted, one may be interested in one or more of the basic types of drought, each reflected in
time series of particular types of data: meteorological (precipitation); agricultural (soil
moisture); or hydrological (stream flow, reservoir levels, or ground water levels)
Naural climate variability
Meteorological

Precipitation Deficiency
High temperature, high w inds, low humidity,

more solar radiation

Increased evapotranspiration: reduced

infiltration, runof f, recharge

Soil-w ater deficiency

Plant w ater stress,

reduced biomass and

Reduced streamflow and lake,
reservoir, ground w ater, and
Hydrological
drought

Economic Social impacts Environmental

impacts impacts

Figure 4.3: Sequence of drought impacts

Averaging Period:
As with time-series analysis generally, drought analysis requires selection of an averaging
period (dt). Since drought by definition have significant duration, one would usually select dt
= 1 month, 3 months, or 1 yr, with the choice depending on the available data and the
purposes of the analysis. For a given record length the selection of dt involves a trade-off
in uncertainty of the analysis:

127
4.6 Risk, Reliability and Safety factor
Risk and Reliability: The designer of a hydraulic structure always faces a nagging doubt
about the risk of failure of his structure. This is because the estimation of the hydrologic
design values (such as the design flood discharge and the river stage during the design
flood) involve a natural or inbuilt uncertainty and as such a hydrological risk of failure.
As an example, consider a weir with an expected life of 50 years and designed for a flood
magnitude of return period T=100 years. This weir may fail if a flood magnitude greater than
the design flood occurs within the life period (50 years) of the weir.

The probability of occurrence of an event (x≥xT) at least once over a period of n successive
years is called the risk, R . Thus the risk is given by R = 1 - (probability of non-occurrence
of the event x≥xT in n years)

Where P= probability P(X≥XT ) = 1/T

It can be seen that the return period for which a structure should be designed depends upon
the acceptable level of risk. In practice, the acceptable risk is governed by economic and
policy considerations.

Safety Factor: In addition to the hydrologic uncertainty, as mentioned above, a water

resource development project will have many other uncertainties. These may arise out of
structural, constructional, operational and environmental causes as well as from non-
technological considerations such as economic, sociological and political causes. As such,
any water resource development project will have a safety factor for a given hydrological
parameter M as defined below.

128
Safetyfactor(fortheparameterM)=(SF)=
=Cam/Chm 4.26

The parameter M includes such items as flood discharge magnitude, maximum river stage,
reservoir capacity and free board. The difference (Cam - Chm) is known as Safety Margin.

Exercise: Annual flood data of a certain river covering the period 1948 to 1979 yielded for
the annual flood discharges a mean of 29,600m3/s and a standard deviation of 14,860m3/s.
for a proposed bridge on this river near the gauging site it is decided to have an
acceptable risk of 10% in its expected life of 50 years. (a) Estimate the flood discharge
by Gumbel's method for use in the design of this structure (b) If the actual flood value
adopted in the design is 125,000m3/s what are the safety factor and safety margin relating to
maximum flood discharge? (Answers (a) 105,000m3/s and (b) (SF)flood = 1.19, Safety
Margin for flood magnitude = 20,000m3/s)

129
CHAPTER FIVE: Reservoir Capacity Determination
The reservoir capacity is a term used to represent the reservoir storage capacity. Its determination is
performed using historical inflow records in the stream at the proposed dam site. There are several
methods to determine a reservoir storage capacity. The most common ones are presented below.

5.1 Mass curve (ripple's) method:

A mass curve (or mass inflow curve) is a plot of accumulated flow in a stream against time.
As indicated below a mass curve can be prepared from the flow hydrograph of a stream for
a large number of consecutive previous years. Figure 5.1 (a) shows a typical flow
hydrograph of a stream for six consecutive years. The area under the hydrograph from the
starting year (i.e., 1953) up to any time tI (shown by hatching) represents the total quantity
of water that has flown through the stream from 1953 up to time t1 and hence it is equal to the
ordinate of the mass curve at time t1. The ordinates of mass curve corresponding to
different times are thus determined and plotted at the respective times to obtain the mass
curve as shown in fig. 5.1(b). A mass curve continuously rises as it shows accumulated flows.
The slope of the curve at any point indicates the rate of flow at that particular time. If there is
no flow during certain period the curve will be horizontal during that period.

130
A demand curve (or mass curve of demand) on the other hand is a plot between accumulated
demand and time (Fig. 5 .2). If the demand is at a constant rate then the demand curve is a
straight line having its slope equal to the demand rate. However, if the demand is not constant then
the demand will be curved indicating a variable rate of demand.

131
Figure 5.2: Demand curve

132
Example 6.1: The following table gives the mean monthly flows in a river during certain
year. Calculate the minimum storage required for maintaining a demand rate of 40m 3/s: (a)
using graphical solution (b) using tabular solution.

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
3
Q(m /s) 60 45 35 25 15 22 50 80 105 90 80 70

Solution:-
a) Graphical solution:

Monthly flow Accumulate

Month Mean volume d
flow (m3/s.day) flow
(m3/s) volume
(m3/s.day)
Jan(31) 60 1860 1860
Feb(28) 45 1260 3120
Mar(31) 35 1085 4205
Apr(30) 25 750 4955
May(31) 15 465 5420
Jun(30) 22 660 6080
Jul(31) 50 1550 7630
Aug(31) 80 2480 10110
Sept(30) 105 3150 13260
Oct(31) 90 2790 16050
Nov(30) 80 2400 18450
Dec(31) 70 2170 20620

133
 b) Tabular calculation (sequent-peak algorithm)

Month Volume in Volume Departure Cumulative Storage

demand Departure
flow (Cumec-day) (2)-(3) (cumec-day) (Cumec-
day)
(cumec- (cumec-
day) day)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Jan 1860 1240 620 620
Feb 1260 1120 140 760 760-(-1160)
Mar 1085 1240 -155 605
Apr 750 1200 -450 155
May 465 1240 -775 -620
Jun 660 1240 -540 -1160
Jul 1550 1240 310 -850
Aug 2480 1240 1240 390
Sept 3150 1200 1950 2340
Oct 2790 1240 1550 3890
Nov 2400 1200 1200 5090
Dec 2170 1240 930 6020

As shown fig 6.4 if the end points of the mass curve are joined by a straight line AB, then its
slope represents the average discharge of the stream over the total period for which the mass
curve has been plotted. If a reservoir is to be constructed to permit continuous release of
water at this average value of discharge for the period, then the capacity required for the
reservoir is represented by the vertical intercept between the two straight lines A1B1 and
A11B11 drawn parallel to AB and tangent to the mass curve at the lowest tangent point C and
the highest tangent point D, respectively. If the reservoir having this capacity is assumed to
contain a volume of water equal to AA1 at the beginning of the period, then the reservoir
would be full at D and it would be empty at C. However, if the reservoir was empty in the
very beginning, then it would be empty again at point E and also during the period from
F to K. On the other hand if the reservoir was full in the very beginning it would be full
again at points F and K, and between points A and E' there will be spill of water from the
reservoir.

In the earlier discussions the rate of demand has been assumed to be constant. However, the
rate of demand may not be always constant, in which case the demand curve will be curve
with its slope varying from point to point in accordance with the variable rate of demand at
different times. In this case also the required capacity of the reservoir can be determined in
the same way by super imposing the demand curve on the mass curve from the high points
(or beginning of the dry period) till the two meet again. The largest vertical intercept between
the two curves gives the reservoir capacity. It is however essential that the demand curve for
the variable demand coincide chronologically with the mass curve of stream flow, i.e.
June demand must coincide with June inflow and so on.

134
Example 6.2: Reservoir Capacity determination by the use of flow duration curve
Determine the reservoir capacity required if a hydropower plant is designed to operate at an
average flow.
Solution: The average flow is 340.93 m3/s.
i) First option: Storage is same as the hatched area under flow duration curve.

Discharge (m3/s) Descending Rank %Exceeded or

Order Equaled
106.70 1200 1 8.33%
107.10 964.7 2 16.67%
148.20 497 3 25.00%
497.00 338.6 4 33.33%
1200.00 177.6 5 41.67%
964.70 148.2 6 50.00%
338.60 142.7 7 58.33%
177.60 141 8 66.67%
141.00 141 9 75.00%
141.00 126.6 10 83.33%
142.70 107.1 11 91.67%
126.60 106.7 12 100.00%

Flow Duration Curve

= Storage Required

135
 (1) (2) (3) (1) -(3)
Ordinate of Flow Duration %Exceded or Averag
Curve (m3/s) Equalled e Area
Flow
1200 8.33% 340.93 0.00 0.00
964.7 16.67% 340.93 0.00 0.00
497 25.00% 340.93 0.00 0.00
338.6 33.33% 340.93 2.33 6.90
177.6 41.67% 340.93 163.33 14.84
148.2 50.00% 340.93 192.73 16.29
142.7 58.33% 340.93 198.23 16.59
141 66.67% 340.93 199.93 16.66
141 75.00% 340.93 199.93 17.26
126.6 83.33% 340.93 214.33 18.67
107.1 91.67% 340.93 233.83 19.50
106.7 100.00% 340.93 234.23
1013.73
Storage (Mm3) 2662.61

ii) 2nd option (Mass Curve/Ripple's Diagram/Sequent Peak Algorithm.)

Monthly Monthl Averag Average Cumulative

Month Flow y e Volume Departure Departure
Volum Flow
e
Jan 106.70 280.25 340.93 895.47 -615.22 -615.22
Feb 107.10 281.30 340.93 895.47 -614.17 -1229.39
Mar 148.20 389.26 340.93 895.47 -506.22 -1735.60
Apr 497.00 1305.40 340.93 895.47 409.93 -1325.68
May 1200.00 3151.87 340.93 895.47 2256.40 930.72
Jun 964.70 2533.84 340.93 895.47 1638.37 2569.09
Jul 338.60 889.35 340.93 895.47 -6.12 2562.97
Aug 177.60 466.48 340.93 895.47 -429.00 2133.97
Sep 141.00 370.34 340.93 895.47 -525.13 1608.85
Oct 141.00 370.34 340.93 895.47 -525.13 1083.72
Nov 142.70 374.81 340.93 895.47 -520.66 563.06
Dec 126.60 332.52 340.93 895.47 -562.95 0.11
ANS (Mm3) 2569.00

5.2 Reservoirs and sediments

A river entering a water reservoir will loose its capacity to transport sediments. The water
velocity decreases, together with the shear stress on the bed. The sediments will therefore
deposit in the reservoir and decrease its volume.

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In the design of dam, it is important to assess the magnitude of sediment deposition in the
reservoir. The problem can be divided I two parts:
1. How much sediments enter the reservoir
2. What is the trap efficiency of the reservoir

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In a detailed study, the sediment size distributions also have to be determined for
question 1. Question 2 may also involve determining the location of the deposits and the
concentration and grain size distribution of the sediments entering the water intakes.

In general, there are two approaches to the sedimentation problem:

1. The reservoir is constructed so large that it will take a very long time to
fill. The economical value of the project will thereby be maintained.
2. The reservoir is designed relatively small and the dam gates are constructed
relatively large, so that it is possible to remove the sediments regularly by
flushing. The gates are opened, lowering the water level in the reservoir,
which increases the water velocity. The sediment transport capacity is
increased, causing erosion of the deposits.

A medium sized reservoir will be the least beneficial. Then it will take relatively short time
to fill the reservoir, and the size is so large that only a small part of the sediments are
removed by flushing.

The flushing has to be done while the water discharge in to the reservoir is relatively high.
The water will erode the deposits to a cross-stream magnitude similar to the normal width of
the river. A long and narrow reservoir will therefore be more effectively flushed than a short
and wide geometry. For the later, the sediment deposits may remain on the sides.

The flushing of a reservoir may be investigated by physical model studies.

Another question is the location of sediment deposits. Figure 5.5 shows a longitudinal profile
of the reservoir. There is a dead storage below the lowest level the water can be
withdrawn. This storage may be filled with sediments without affecting the operation of the
reservoir.

Figure 6.5: Longitudinal profile of a reservoir. HRW is the highest regulated

water level. The reservoir volume below LRW is called the dead storage, as this
can be used.

5.3 Sediment Load Prediction

Rough estimates of sediment load may be taken from regional data. Often the sediment yield
in the area is known from neighboring catchments. It is then possible to assess the
seriousness of the erosion in the present catchment and
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Estimate rough figures of sediment yield. The land use, slope and size of the catchment are
important factors.

For a more detailed assessment, measurements of the sediment concentration in the river
have to be used. Sediment concentrations are measured using standard sampling techniques,
and water discharges are recorded simultaneously. The measurements are taken at varying
water discharges. The values of water discharge and sediment concentrations are plotted on a
graph, and a rating curve is made. This is often on the form:

(6.1)

Qs is the sediment load, Qw is the water discharge and a and b are constants, obtained by curve
fitting

Figure 6.6: Example of sediment rating curve.

The annual average sediment transport is obtained by using a time series of the water
discharge over the year together with equation 6.1.

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CHAPTER SIX: URBAN HYDROLOGY

Storm magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence are of greater importance than annual
rainfall totals in urban hydrology.

6.1 Catchment Response Modifications

The changes made to a rural area by the construction of a concentration of building have a
direct effect on its surface hydrology. The covering of the land surface by a large proportion
of impervious materials means that a much larger proportion of any rainfall forms immediate
runoff. In addition to extensive ground coverage by building in a city, the paved streets and
car parks contribute large areas to the impervious surface. Any slope of the land also
greatly enhances the runoff response of a paved area. In a defined catchment area, the effect
on the stream discharge is dependent on the extent on the remaining pervious surfaces, where
normal infiltration in to the soil and percolation in to the underlying strata can take place.
Thus, after major urban development in a catchment, the following differences in the river
flow from that of an equivalent rural catchment can be identified.

a. there is a higher proportion of rainfall appearing as surface runoff, and so the total volume
of discharge is increased
b.for a specific rainfall event, the response of the catchment is accelerated, with a steeper
rising limb of the flow hydrograph; the lag time and time to peak is reduced
c.flood peak magnitudes are increased, but for the very, but for the very extreme events
(when the rural runoff coefficient > 50%) these increase in urban areas are diminished
d. in times of low flows, discharges are decreased since there is reduced contribution from the
groundwater storage that has received less replenishment; and
e. water quality in streams and rivers draining urban area is degraded by effluent discharges,
increased water temperature and danger from other forms of pollution

Many of these modifications are promoted by structural changes made to drainage channels.
It is essential to remove rain water quickly from developed areas, and surface water drainage
systems are included in modern town extensions.

The interaction of the artificial nature of urban catchments and the need to accommodate the
changed hydrological characteristics is complex. The solving of one drainage problem
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may easily exacerbate another feature of the catchment runoff, e.g. rain events on the
planned surface drainage of a new housing estate could produce higher peaks downstream
than formerly, and these might cause flooding at previously safe points along the channel.

Due to urbanization effect, the runoff volume and time distribution of the runoff hydrograph
is modified. The various hydrograph parameters such as peak discharge, Qp, time to peak,
tp and lag time are usually related to catchment

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Characteristics including area of impervious surfaces or proportion of area urbanized, in order
to obtain quantitative rainfall-runoff relationships.

6.2Urban development planning

In the development of new urban centers, hydrological knowledge of the areas is required
at two stages. The first is planning stage when the general layout of the new town is being
decided. The second stage of hydrological involvement occurs at the detailing stage, the
designing of storm water drainage channels and pipes to carry the surface water in to the
rivers.

The principal objective at the planning stage is the determination of the size of flood, with its
related return period, that the developing authority is prepared to accommodate. The design
of the drainage system is dependent on a satisfactory assessment of the flood magnitude-
return period relationship and the subsequent choice of a design flood.

6.3 Drainage design

Once the broad outline of the hydrological consequences of an urban development of an area
have been determined at the planning stage and major remedial works considered, then the
detailed design of the drainage systems is required. The engineering hydrologist is fully
concerned with evaluating the runoff from sub areas to be drained in order to design the
necessary storm water sewers. The peak runoff from the selected design storm determines the
size sewer pipe which is dependent on the extent of each sub area to be drained. At the
head of the catchment sub area, the required pipe size may e quite small, but downstream, as
the sewer receives water from a growing are through a series of junctions, the pipe size
gradually needs to be increased.

The problem of estimating the runoff from the storm rainfall is very much dependent on the
character of the catchment surface. The degree of urbanization (extent of impervious area)
greatly affects the volume of runoff obtained from a given rainfall. Retention of rainfall by
initial wetting of surfaces and absorption by vegetation and pervious areas reduces the
amount of storm runoff. These surface conditions also affect the time distribution of the
runoff. Thus the computational method used to obtain the runoff from the rainfall should
allow for the characteristics of the surface are to be drained.

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6.3.1Impervious areas
These comprises the roof areas and large expanses of paved surfaces of city centers and
industrial sites, in which there is very little or even no part of the ground surface into which
rainfall could infiltrate. The calculation of the runoff from these relatively small
catchments is the most straight forward, since the area can be easily defined and measured.
Over such limited areas, the storm rainfall can be assumed to be uniformly distributed with
100% runoff occurring. The response of the impervious surface is rapid, resulting in a short
time of concentration of the flow in the drainage system. The rational formula can thus
provide the peak drainage.

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Looking the simple pipe design in the figure below, the computation of the required pipe size
can be done as shown in the table.

A = 0.15 ha

1.0

A = 0.15 ha
A = 0.15 ha

2.0

A = 0.15 ha 1.2

Outfall

Figure 7.1: Simple Pipe Design

At the outset of the design procedure, the selected return period for a design storm will have
been decided. Storm water sewers are usually designed for 1 in 1, 1 in 2 or 1 in 5 year storm
return periods. The type of pipe will also have been chosen; the internal roughness governs
the flow characteristics, and roughness coefficient. Velocities and discharges for standard
sized pipes can be found from published tables, assuming full bore conditions, a hydraulic
gradient equal to the pipe gradient and appropriate roughness coefficient. Design charts for
the velocities and discharges are also available and provide for easier interpolation. Flows
larger than those derived from the tables or charts would require hydraulic gradients
greater than the pipe gradient, and these could only occur by ponding (or surcharging) of
water in the manholes at the pipe junctions. The design objective is to avoid such
surcharging.

Referring to figure 7.1, the design procedure begins with the choice of a trial pipe size
for pipe 1.0, say 150 mm is chosen (the smallest used in practice) (Refer Table 7.1). From
published tables and for ks = 0.6 for a normal concrete pipe, the velocity and discharge for a
gradient of 1 in 65 are noted, 1.26 m/s and
23.0 l/s, respectively. A flow greater than 23.0 l/s would result in surcharging.

144
The time of flow along the pipe is next calculated from the velocity and length of pipe and
comes to 0.86 min. the time of concentration at the end of the first pipe is then 0.86 min
plus an assumed allowance of 2 min, for the time of entry, which is assumed to cover the
lag time between the beginning of the storm rainfall and the entry of the overland flow in
to the leading manhole. With the time of concentration of the drainage to the end of the
first pipe known, the design return period rainfall intensity (i) over this duration to give
the peak flow an be obtained from intensity-duration-frequency data. The storm peak
discharge is then calculated using equation 6.1 for comparison with the

145
unsurcharged full bore pipe flow. The first trial pipe of 150 mm diameter would clearly
be surcharged, so the calculations are repeated with the next size pipe, diameter 225 mm.
the calculated storm discharge, 28.8 l/s would be easily contained by larger pipe.

The calculations proceed for each pipe in turn, with the previous time of concentration
being added to the new time of flow to give the combined times of concentration at the
end of sequential pipes. The drainage areas are also accumulated. It will be noted that the
2.0 min time of entry is also added to the flow time of pipe 2.0 since it is at the start of a
branch of pipeline. The time of concentration for the last pipe, is then the sum of the
time of concentration of pipe 1.1 and the flow time of pipe 1.2. the extra contribution
from the greatly increased area drained by the tributary pipe results in a much larger
discharge requiring the next size larger pipe, 300 mm diameter.

146
REFERENCES
 Subramanya, K. (1994), Engineering Hydrology 2nd ed., Tata McGraw-Hill
 Wilfried Brutsaert. (2005). Introduction Hydrology. Cambridge University.
 H.M. Raghunath. 2006. Hydrology – Principles, Analysis, Design
 Ramixi Reddy. 1992. A Text of Hydrology
 Bhattacharya (2003). Elements of Applied Hydrology, Delhi
 Ward, R.,C (2000). Principles of Hydrology, London.
 Robinson, M. (2000). Principles of Hydrology, London.
 Wilson E. M (1990). Engineering Hydrology: 4th Edition, Brtain
 Subramany K (1994). Engineering Hydrology: 2nd Edition, New Delhi
 Concise hydrology

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