231-Article Text-448-1-10-20200703
231-Article Text-448-1-10-20200703
231-Article Text-448-1-10-20200703
Introduction
The nature of the China-Bangladesh relation poses both challenges and
opportunities for the United States. The problem is to determine the nature
of the bilateral relation, how it serves the interests of both nations, and the
implications for the foreign policy of the United States. The relation would be
relatively straightforward were it not for three regional and international factors.
First, Bangladesh’s geo-economic and geopolitical position at the head of the Bay
of Bengal affects the interests of not only her neighbors but of all her trading
partners and even global powers. Second, Bangladesh is encircled by India and
must account for India in all her foreign relations. Third, the rise of China relative
to the United States means that relations of all states with China are perforce of
interest to the United States.
Unlike the United States or the European Union - which cannot be encircled -
China, Bangladesh and India all face encirclement by potential adversaries and
their foreign relations must account for this. All are developing nations whose
major trade routes are seaborne making the economic foundation of their
national power and their independence of action particularly vulnerable to such
encirclement.
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
especially oil, depend on the sea. Approximately 90% of her oil imports come by
sea, with 82% passing through the Strait of Malacca.2 Thus, the land routes of the
One Belt and One Road Initiative (OBOR) are a strategic economic necessity, a
way to avoid encirclement by reducing China’s vulnerability to blockade. As long
as China remains reliant on the sea for trade she must ensure good relations with
the states on her borders, with the members of ASEAN and with the allies of
the United States that physically dominate the approaches to the East and South
China Seas – South Korea, Japan and the Philippines (see Map 1 below).
India has Bangladesh encircled by land and sea. Of greater potential danger than
its encirclement by land and sea, India controls Bangladesh’s two main sources of
river water, the Ganges and Brahmaputra and China controls the headwaters of
the Brahmaputra. This vulnerability makes good relations with India and China
imperative for Bangladesh. Bangladesh is not, however, completely helpless before
her much larger neighbor. Bangladesh’s relations with China are a counter to
2. Business Insider, “This Pentagon map shows what’s really driving China’s military and diplomatic
strategy” available at http://www.businessinsider.com/this-map-shows-chinas-global-energy-ties-2015-5,
accessed 15 September 2017.
156
overbearing behavior by India; India must have access to routes through Bangladesh
to improve connectivity and pursue the “Act East” policy; Bangladesh poses a
remote but potential military threat to the Siliguri Corridor; and Bangladesh can stir
up trouble in the Seven Sisters as some claim she has in the past.
In sum, China, Bangladesh and India all face potential encirclement. China is in
the stronger position against her Indian rival. India, while she cannot hope to
counter-encircle China, cannot herself be encircled so long as she controls the
Indian Ocean. Because Bangladesh poses no threat to the security of India or
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political action in a particular period of history depends on the political and
cultural context”3 is apt with respect to the three powers. The political and
cultural context of Sino-Indian relations, one of rivalry and competition, gives
Bangladesh an opportunity to exploit the “pattern of competition” and ensure
that the Sino-Indian rivalry functions “to preserve the independence” of the
weaker power4, Bangladesh.
“In their endeavor to realize the Chinese Dream of great national rejuvenation,
the Chinese people aspire to join hands with the rest of the world to maintain
peace, pursue development and share prosperity.”5
China announced its core interests in a document from 2011, China’s Peaceful
Development. They are “state sovereignty, national security, territorial integrity
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1993, p. 11.
4. Ibid., pp. 190-192.
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gov.cn/Database/WhitePapers/2014.htm, accessed 2 July 2017.
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
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analysts, including Chinese analysts, have noted the deep domestic political
roots of China’s foreign policy. As Jian Zhang of Peking University noted, “In
general, beyond issues such as food safety, environment pollution and rampant
corruption that are hurting the welfare of nearly everyone, all major social classes,
# +8 Zhang thought the
aggressive aspects of China’s foreign policy can be seen as attempting to distract
from domestic social and political pains. “Foreign policy ‘pills’ as a means of
addressing domestic pains have been a popular choice for politicians throughout
the ages.”9
The role China seeks to play in the world is ambiguous. In a recent speech, the
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world because …
A globalized world, where countries are more closely inter-connected than ever
before, needs not a single-handed hero but partners of cooperation who stick
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building partnerships as the new direction for state-to-state relations, a proposal
welcomed by most countries.10
Xi Jinping echoed this formulation during his speech at the CPC National
Congress, emphasizing the theme that “China will never seek hegemony or
158
engage in expansion.”11 China is unready, or perhaps unwilling, to take a more
active role, and would prefer to focus on economic development in order to
mitigate “domestic pains” and avoid the expense of world leadership.
When considering Chinese policy toward Bangladesh, the only core interests
concerned are economic development and national security. Bangladesh can
directly contribute to China’s economic development through trade and can
indirectly contribute to China’s national security but has no realistic role to play
in helping China with other interests. From the Chinese point of view, economic
development indirectly affects social development and further social stability but
this is not something that is exclusive to Bangladesh, rather it applies to all of
China’s trading partners.
On the one hand, it will help China get access to the required resources (rather
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markets where it can transfer its excess infrastructure production - because the
domestic market for this is shrinking - and to exchange China’s portfolio of US
treasury bills into more productive investments in the new markets.12
After the October, 2016 summit between China’s President and Bangladesh’s
Prime Minister, the joint statement detailed areas of economic cooperation.
China and Bangladesh agreed to cooperate on the BCIM-EC and in “industrial
11. Xinhua, “Full text: Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative” available at
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/18/c_136688994.htm, accessed 20 October 2017.
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Perspective”, Canadian Public Policy, Vol. 43, No. 2, 2017, p. 54.
13. Avia Nahreen, “The growing strategic importance of Bangladesh to China” available at http://www.
thedailystar.net/op-ed/the-growing-strategic-importance-bangladesh-china-1393957, accessed 2 July
2017.
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
China has a requirement to gain alternate access to the Indian Ocean for both
economic and security reasons. One of the motivations behind OBOR, in its
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and BCIM-EC aspects, is to bypass
the Malacca Strait overland. There is also a potential threat of China using its
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any encirclement of China by India, Japan, South Korea and others. China’s
security relations with Bangladesh introduce a very small measure of uncertainty
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apparent than real. Chakravarty notes that with China providing “more than 80
per cent of the arms inventory of the Bangladesh defence forces” and “ droves
of Bangladeshi defence personnel travelling to China for training” there is
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relationship with Pakistan, but there is scant evidence of that at this time.
There is however, evidence that China would at least like Bangladesh’s tacit support
in disputes China has with third parties. Analyzing China’s recent White Paper
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unambiguous sentence, “Small and medium sized countries need not and should
not take sides among big countries.”16| )' + >
as China, the United States, Russia, India, and Japan, this implies that China, as a
condition of its economic relationship with Bangladesh, expects Bangladesh will
not to “take sides.”
In sum, China’s relations with Bangladesh are primarily concerned with the
Chinese core interests of sustainable economic development and national
security. In order to further these interests, Chinese policy emphasizes developing
trade, investment and connectivity with Bangladesh and defense cooperation.
14. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Joint Statement of The People’s Republic of China and The People’s
Republic of Bangladesh on Establishing Strategic Partnership of Cooperation 14 October 2016” available
at http://www.mofa.gov.bd/media/joint-statement-people’s-republic-china-and-people’s-republic-
bangladesh-establishing, accessed 3 May 2017.
15. Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, “Bangladesh-India Ties: Pragmatic Transformation”, Indian Foreign Affairs
Journal, Vol. 10, No. 3, 2015, p. 215.
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infrastructure, industrial capacity, energy and power, transportation, information
and communication technology, agriculture; the BCIM-EC to enhance regional
connectivity; and military equipment sales and training.
“In the year 2041, Bangladesh will become a peaceful, prosperous and developed
place after crossing the status of a middle-income country.” (Prime Minister
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According to the Foreign Minister, the Prime Minister wants Bangladesh “[t]o be
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democratic, secular and inclusive identity, contributing to global peace, progress
and prosperity” by 2041.17 This will enable Bangladesh to pursue its national
interests of “[p]reservation of sovereignty and territorial integrity, economic
security, energy security, environmental preservation and internal peace and
cohesion.”18
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“Bangladesh Foreign Policy” on 18 June 2017, National Defence College, Dhaka.
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accessed 7 July 2017.
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20. Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury, “The geo-politics of Bangladesh-China relations” available at http://opinion.
bdnews24.com/2016/10/13/the-geo-politics-of-bangladesh-china-relations/, accessed 3 April 2017.
161
The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
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opinion and domestic political tensions. During an interview, a distinguished
expert emphasized two points. First, that Bangladeshi public opinion is “basically
anti-Indian, Bengalis see them as a bully who make no concessions to their
neighbors.” Second, that “China needs Bangladesh and Bangladesh needs
China.”23 In other words, the interests of Bangladesh and China are congruent
and essentially economic.
There is in this a danger for Bangladesh. When the Chinese invest, they have
a reputation for employing Chinese workers, for the low quality of what they
build, for often building without considering the long-term economic prospects
for success, and for environmental despoliation as Carrie Gracie extensively
documented in a recent article for the British Broadcasting Corporation.24
Bloomberg News, in a generally favorable assessment of OBOR, reported on
other the failed projects.25 Bangladesh must ensure, in all her dealings with the
Chinese that there is actually a win for Bangladesh, not two wins for China.
In short, Bangladesh’s relations with China are primarily concerned with her
interest of economic security. Bangladesh is using her geographic position and
projects like BCIM-EC to develop her connectivity and various sub-sectors of
21. Economist Intelligence Unit, ‘”Country Report, Bangladesh” available at http://www.eiu.com/home.
aspx, accessed 13 April 2017.
22. Ayesha Kabir, “Bangladesh and the New Cold War”, Defence Journal Pakistan, Vol. 17, No. 9, 2014, p. 11.
23. D # >' ^ Z $[ @
24. Carrie Gracie, “Tales from the New Silk Road” available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-
sh/new_silk_road, accessed 15 July 2017.
25. Bloomberg News, “Chinese Spending Lures Countries to Its Belt and Road Initiative” available at https://
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-china-belt-and-road-initiative/, accessed 11 September 2017.
162
the economy. Bangladesh policy emphasizes increasing trade and investment.
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infrastructure, industrial capacity, energy and power, transportation, information
and communication technology, agriculture, and BCIM-EC to enhance regional
connectivity. In its relations with China, Bangladesh primarily employs the
diplomatic and economic instruments of national power and exploits its location
at the head of the Bay of Bengal and as India’s neighbor.
“We have no dispute with China and hence Bangladesh-China relations can grow
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from three sides.”26
What this means for Bangladesh is the resolution of old disputes as well as
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India remains justly worried about the intentions of Pakistan and China. At the
National Defence College, a speaker noted that “relations with China are the
26. Chowdhury, op. cit.
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28. Economist Intelligence Unit, “Country Report, India” available at http://www.eiu.com/home.aspx,
accessed 13 April 2017.
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
Even with its suspicion of the Chinese, India knows where the future lies. Even
sources that, like Chakravarty, are hostile to the Chinese and sometimes dismissive
of the Bangladeshis, understand this.30 “Act East” is a sort of BCIM-EC without
China and is advantageous to Bangladesh. Even if it takes decades to create real
connectivity from Kolkata to Kunming, all of the connectivity improvements
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the moment they are completed.
It appears that India is beginning to wake up to the fact that Bangladesh can no
longer be treated like a little brother.31 That this is so is clear from the results
of the April 2017 state visit. In the Joint Statement, India committed to billions
as poor as India. While the details of these commitments are not yet publicly
known the mere fact that they have been made indicates that India understands
the necessity for development and trade with its smaller neighbor.
“When you’re the only girl in the village, all of the boys are interested in you.”
Bangladesh is one of the most vital countries for China in expanding its sphere
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leverage from China’s checkbook diplomacy while maintaining the delicate
balance of regional geopolitics.32
With a steadily growing economy and having just reached the status of a
lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh is an attractive partner for trade and
investment, not just for its South Asian neighbors but also for China. Map 2
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Defence College, Dhaka.
30. Chakravarty, op. cit., p. 212.
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32. Nahreen, op. cit.
164
terms of total bilateral trade with the United States and India close behind.
The United States has contributed by far the greatest stock of foreign direct
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funding for projects to develop Bangladesh’s power supplies, connectivity and
information technology.
Source: Internet
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
China must remain careful as she engages Bangladesh. The effects on her relations
with India must be taken into consideration as well as the effects on BCIM-EC
and OBOR as a whole. Despite its suspicions, India clearly sees the need for
greater connectivity if not for greater integration in other areas. For Bangladesh,
the Rohingya crisis, discussed in more detail below, has shown that the head of
the Bay of Bengal might not be the only village.
These other interests of China and India explain their reaction to the current
crisis. They wish to offend neither Bangladesh nor Myanmar but both have
decided that Myanmar has much to offer them and they are willing to trade a
little diplomatic tension with Bangladesh to continue their economic engagement
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terms of power”33 and Bangladesh in a position evoking Thucydides’ dismissal
of morality in international relations, “the strong do what they can and the weak
suffer what they must.”34
It is unlikely that Bangladesh will follow the suggestions of Pakistan and join
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too much depends on its relations with India, particularly water sharing but
also energy supplies and trade. Bangladesh is, however, beginning to seek more
opportunities within South Asia despite a moribund SAARC.35 In the regional
context, Bangladesh appears as quite aggressive in seeking bilateral agreements
with her neighbors, China and other partners all of whom appear interested.
There is only one country at the head of the Bay of Bengal. There is only one
country with steady, high growth and a potential demographic dividend. There
is only one country critical to the success of both China’s BCIM-EC and India’s
drive to increase connectivity to the East. That country is Bangladesh. In the
regional context, Bangladesh is the only girl in the village and all the boys will
have to pay attention to her.
166
would not solve the problem. Neither are denunciations from western and Muslim
countries likely to force Myanmar to accept the Rohingya. For the time being, and
it may be a long time, Bangladesh has little choice but to continue to receive and
support the refugees while continuing to mobilize diplomatic, informational and
economic support from other states, international organizations and NGOs.
China and India support Myanmar because both states have big infrastructure
projects in Myanmar. India’s Kaladan project is designed to provide a links to the
northeast through Sittwe port. China’s Kyaukphyu port is the start of a pipeline
@36 For China, the reason to support Myanmar is the
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Strait bypass to complement Gwadar in Pakistan. India, like China, sees Myanmar
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in Naypyidaw is less than China’s. If China bests her in Myanmar and forges a
relationship as close as the Sino-Pakistani relationship, India will be completely
encircled on land.
It may seem a gross exaggeration to assert that China, India and the United states
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at http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2115839/why-do-china-india-back-myanmar-
over-rohingya-crisis, accessed 18 October 2017.
37. Address to National Defence Course 2017 by Marcia Bernicat, U.S. Ambassador to Bangladesh, on
“United States Policy in Bangladesh - Partners in Security and Development” on 25 June 2017, National
Defence College, Dhaka.
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
168
Bangladesh should maintain and even increase her focus on connectivity in order
to take advantage of India’s need for connectivity with the Northeast and of
China’s desire for connectivity with Kolkata.
Bangladesh must also increase its capacity to execute projects. It will do little
good to sign trade and development agreements with China if the Bangladeshi
side cannot execute them.
Bangladesh should pursue the movement of sunset industries from China. While
such industries are becoming less important to the Chinese, they represent for
Bangladesh an opportunity to begin moving up the value chain and might also
enable greater Bangladeshi penetration of the Chinese market.
Bangladesh must avoid too much debt. Every debt, even concessional debt, must
be carefully studied to ensure that the returns are worth the price.
Finally, Bangladesh must understand and remain wary of Chinese and Indian
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China and India and these interests do not always coincide.
The United States should continue its efforts to develop the Armed Forces of
Bangladesh with a focus on professionalization and respect for human rights as
well as to peacekeeping training and equipment.
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
Conclusion
Bangladesh is not a powerful country in the realist sense. It has neither great
natural resources nor a great industrial base. It is not wealthy and its infrastructure
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geography, her population and her national character. The geographic location
of Bangladesh ensures its importance to its neighbors, its population means that
there are not just the hands but also the brains needed to develop the country,
and its national character – the people’s and leaders’ insistence on maintaining
sovereignty and independence – means that powerful nations like China and
India cannot simply dictate their relations with Bangladesh. The national power
generated by the combination of geography, population and national character
of Bangladesh means that Bangladesh is in a strong position in its relations with
China and India and the rest of the world. The realization of Vision 2041 and of
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shared interest in the success of the other.
170
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The China-Bangladesh Relation and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
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Author
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been stationed in the United States, Germany, Italy, Korea and Bangladesh and
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extensive experience serving as a tactical leader at the platoon, company and
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levels; as a trainer and tactical analyst at the brigade level and below; as a planner
and manager of new equipment testing; and conducting combined operations
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tactical assignment was as the Commander of the 4th Squadron, 7th U.S. Cavalry.
Colonel Gottlieb’s current assignment is as a member of National Defence
Course 2017 at the Bangladesh National Defence College.
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Army Achievement, Iraq and Afghanistan Campaign, NATO and United Nations
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University.
173