MNO2705

LEADERSHIP AND DECISION

MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Week 1
 Agenda

Getting to know each other / form 8 groups

Overview of Module, assessments
and Canvas set-up
A Taste of ‘Leadership & Decision making’
Simulation exercise
Getting ready for the next class
Melissa Lim (Prof Mel)
 Teaching in NUS-BIZ since
2018
 Made in Singapore
 Educated in NUS –BIZ and
Masters of Education,
Distinction, UK Sheffield
 Leadership and Development
Practitioner & Consultant,20yrs
 Interests – Fitness and Travel
 Social Activist – BTSS
 Sharing to nurture knowledge
 Action and application is key to
development
 Preliminaries

 Name Stand – Use your preferred name

 Scan the QR Code for attendance

 Put on a smile and

be ready to move and
have fun : )
 Meeting Someone New

 Get UP! And stand beside someone you know

least in the room.
 DO NOT connect until I give further direction.
 Getting to Know Someone Better
 Taking turns:
 Speak energetically (60 seconds).
 –Who you are (name, major)
 –What gets you excited about this
semester?

 Listen to affirm (60 seconds)

 –Show that you pay attention
 –Endorse and support what you
hear
 Remain Standing, Form Teams

 In a moment, we will form randomised project teams.

 Randomization?
 Break homogeneity
 Develop diversity
 opportunity for novel ideas
 challenges for collaboration
 Develop professionalism as
collaborators

 Team generator: https://www.jamestease.co.uk/team-

generator/
 Get to know your team and do
real work
 Sit together (your team’s space for several weeks)
 Introduce one another in the team
 In 15 minutes, Discuss

 What do you understand by Leadership and Decision

Making? What makes a Leader?
– Leadership refers to the influence process by which leaders
and followers work together to achieve shared objectives

 What skills are needed in times of Uncertainty? Are

they the same or different as to the skills needed in
“good times”?
 Definitions

Leadership Decision Making

 The influence process  The selection of the
by which best option from a
leaders and followers choice set
work together containing two or
to achieve shared more options
objectives
 Effective Leadership

 Takeaways from previous discussion:

– What we define as “effective leadership” in normal
times tends to be different in times of crisis, risk,
and uncertainty
– In risk and uncertainty, we place higher emphasis
on adaptability and agility
– We might even prefer autocratic leadership! We
want leaders to make a quick decision, and
participative leadership (i.e., where all members’
suggestions are heard) becomes less important
 Same Same but Different?

What are some similarities between Hitler and Gandhi?

What are some differences?
 Group Discussion
 In your team, rate Hitler and Gandhi on a scale of 1
(worst) to 10 (best)
 Before coming up with the rating, come up with a list of
criteria to rate these persons
 No detailed information about Hitler/Gandhi required.
General knowledge will do.
 In group presentations, justify your rating and your list
of criteria
 15 minutes to discuss, 1 min-presentation per group
 Group Presentations
(1 minutes per group)
 De-Brief: Group Discussion

 Which of your criteria were directly related to

the objectives of this course?
– Leadership capabilities
– Situation of uncertainty and risk
– Ethics
– Making decisions with external influences

 Use this activity as inspiration to choose your

Case Study for your team project!
 Takeaways

 A leader in “normal times” is not always the

leader we seek in times of risk and uncertainty
 Ethics is not traditionally seen to be part of
effective leadership, but it does play a role in
what we think of effective leadership
 Can we remain ethical in times of risk and
uncertainty?
 Or do we take decision shortcuts and end up
with bad and/or unethical decisions?
 MNO2705 Course Map

Deciding Ethical
Ethical
decision
ethically foundation
making

SELF-AWARENESS
Decision
LEADERSHIP

Deciding under Biases and

making
uncertainty heuristics
challenges

Deciding in Group Negotiated

groups decisions decisions

Deciding with Complexity,

Innovation &
Tight
incomplete Coupling &
Design
information Thinking
Error
 Course materials
 Course Outline uploaded in Canvas
 Chapters & Cases (Canvas Course Readings)
 Journal Articles and Harvard Business Review articles
(NUS LIB)
 Announcements for the class through Canvas
 Evaluation
Individual-based coursework
Professionalism and engagement in class participation (20%)
Individual Assessment (30%)

Collaborative coursework
Team project (50%)
- One-page project proposal (5%)
- 20-min team presentation (35%)
- Executive Summary (10%)
 Individual Assessment (30%)
 No class in week 9
 Test on Wed 18 Oct 3:00-5:00 pm at venue
tba.
 Focused on understanding of and ability to
work with concepts covered in class and
assigned readings from Weeks 1 to 7.
 Primarily case-based, shared on Examplify.
 Open book format.
 Guidelines for Classes
 Be punctual and properly attired
 Have your meals before/after classes
 TA will be responsible for
– Attendance
• Students must update TAs on absences and provide
supporting documents
– Noting class participation
– Class Admin
• Collecting printed assignments
• Checking online submission of assignments
Class Participation (CP) Component (20%)
 Attendance (5%)
 In-Class Participation (10%)
– Quality over Quantity
 Canvas Discussions (5%)
– One Assigned Forum Discussion per Team
– Do only ONE of the assigned tasks by 12 am day of
next class
• Questions, Answers and Views or
• Learning Insights from Course Reading.
• Only ONE new post or reply of 250 words
Original, Value-Add contributions score more
In-class participation
 Group Project
 Identify an organisation which is working on at least one of
the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (e.g.,
gender equality, climate action, zero hunger)
 Analyze the challenges it faces toward reaching its
sustainability goal(s) using concepts learnt in class
 Provide recommendations to improve leadership and
decision-making processes in your case study.

 Organization must be Asian-based

 Sustainability issues must occur within the past 5 years
 Different case studies – First come, first serve
Challenges in Decision Making for
Sustainability Project (30%)

Every group to decide on ONE SDG to focus on.

Different one for each group
 Refer to List of Past
and Banned Topics in CANVAS
 1. Thailand’s Decision to Legalize Cannabis
 2. Revitalization of Nuclear Power in Japan
 3. Releasing Fukushima Wastewater into the
Ocean
 4. SG KL High Speed Rail
 5. Samsung electronics semiconductors
 6. Sustainability of Foxconn’s operations in
China
 Tips for your team project
 Craft a question statement appropriate for a
team project (not too small not too big)
 Break down the decision-making points
 Consider the concepts in the module that you
can use to improve your decision making
process
 Be systematic in covering potential threats to
effective decision making, including biases,
heuristics, group processes, ethical concerns,
leadership failure etc.
 Formalizing Teams
for Group Project (50%)
 8 Groups of 6 pax max.
 Today, populate CANVAS with members of
your team
 Proposed case study topic to be listed in
Canvas Week 3 (TA to create a google doc in
CANVAS collaboration)
 Constellations may change depending on
updated class list in coming weeks
 How to do Well in this Class
 Detailed Assignment and Rubrics doc and Course
Outline available on Canvas Syllabus
 Expectations of a Level 2000 Module:
– 1 to 3 readings per week
– Come prepared to class to have productive discussions!
– Consistency in class participation is important
 Writing skills are important for your individual
assignment
– Approach me if you need guidance
 Originality: Fresh perspectives and insights
 Assess to Prof and TAs
You have our full support
 TAs – Telegram Handle
– Please refer admin such as attendances, technical
issues and submissions to TAs who will check with
me is required.
– Be independent – find out what you can yourself
first
 Email me to arrange ZOOM videoconferences
for consultations.
– bizlsfm@nus.edu.sg
Please give us your full support too!
SD 1 Telegram Group
SD 2 Telegram Group
SD 3 Telegram Group
Questions?
Break (10 minutes)
Decision making simulation-exercise

 Participants are owners

and employees in
Carter racing enterprise
and have a vested
interest in its success

 Maximum of 30
minutes provided in
which to make a
decision about racing
 Work the problem!
48

August 14, 2023

Should Carter Racing race at Pocono?

Owners Employees

 John Carter  Paul Edwards – engine

 Fred Carter mechanic
 Tom Burns – chief
mechanic

First 10 mins
Review material A on your own and make your
decision
20 minutes to make a decision
 Round 2 10 mins
• 2 Groups in Class – B and C

• Review assigned material for your group and make decision

within 10 mins

• Identify 1 rep for B and 1 rep for C per group

 Third 10 mins
• Reps from B and C discuss and decides whether to Race or
Not

• The rest observe how the decision making process.

– How was the outcome reached?
– Who influenced the decision and how?
– Do you think this was the right decision?
– How confident are you?
– What would have helped in the decision making .
 Pocono

You reached a decision!

 Payoff for racing

Event Prob. Revenues Expenses Expected Value

0.50 (12/24) 1,000K GS

Finish top 5 750.0K
500K Oil

Finish not top 5 0.125 (3/24) 500K Oil 62.5K

Not finish (Blow 0.29 (7/24) 20K

-5.8K
engine) (engine)

Not finish (other) 0.08 (2/24) 500K Oil 41.7K

Net expected value of racing 848.4K

 Payoff for not racing

Event Prob. Revenues Expenses Expected Value

1 500.0K oil
Not racing 25K 482.5K
7.5K

Net expected value of not racing 482.5K

Decision: Race!
 Pocono

Did you make the right

decision?
 Roles in Carter Racing

• What would it be like to be John or Fred?

• Who did you find more believable?
Edwards or Burns? Why?
• What perspective filters did we use to
process information?
Carter Racing Decision Factors

 Sunk costs
 Anchoring
 Framing (Loss vs. gain)
 Status Quo
 Overconfidence
 Outcome bias
 Confirmation bias
 Group process issues
(advocacy vs inquiry)
 Soldier vs scout mindset
 • The mega-earthquake triggered a catastrophic
tsunami in Japan in 2011 that killed 15,891
people. It also set off a disaster at the Fukushima
Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, where three reactors
melted down. Investigations into what happened
Relevance
at the power plant concluded that the nuclear
to Asian
Context disaster could have been prevented. Not only
were aspects of the plant’s designs not up to
standards outlined by international best practices,
but investigators concluded that officials had
focused on the threat of seismic activity without
fully appreciating how a resultant tsunami might
affect the plant.
 Perspective

 Work the problem--no  The best justification for a

substitute for decision comes
disciplined thinking from the process by which
 rigour, bias, ethical it was made.
issues,
group processes,
anticipated error?

 Know what you don’t

know
 Perspectives
 Decision making requires disciplined thinking
– Be aware of faulty assumptions and decision biases
– Consider ethical implications
– Improve group processes
– Keep errors and future in mind

 Effective decision making is an important leadership

skill
– Improve self-awareness

 Competitive advantage is in people

 Perspective

Those who cannot Every time history

remember repeats itself
the past are condemned the price goes up.
to
repeat it.
Anonymous
Santayana
 Nuggets of knowledge

Good decisions Leadership is about

come from experience. taking responsibility,
Experience it is not about
comes from bad making excuses
decisions.

Unknown Mitt Romney

Please

Please do not talk about

the Carter Racing Simulation
with your colleagues
in other sections
so that they can have
a similar learning experience
as you just had!
 Next Week

 Leadership Competencies in an Uncertain

World
– Brower, T. (2021). Empathy Is The Most Important
Leadership Skill According To Research, Forbes.
– Zenger, J., & Folkman, J. (2020). Research:
Women Are Better Leaders During a Crisis, Harvard
Business Review.
 Links in Course Outline